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The INFLATION Thread, aka “The Putin Price Hike” (2 Viewers)

It seems like if there was ever a time to borrow as much money as you can for as long as you can, now is the time.

I'm normally a zero debt guy, but anyone that was a saver and living within their means for the past few years is feeling like a sucker now. 

 
I just keep going back to 2008, wishing we'd done it differently then.  I don't have the time or energy to connect all of the dots from the bailout then to now, but I firmly believe there was some strong causation from that bailout to our current predicament.
What's crazy is you have a guy like Jamie Dimon who just got a huge stock option bonus and is somehow still on top. Real life game of thrones and he made it past the final episode. 

 
I'm normally a zero debt guy, but anyone that was a saver and living within their means for the past few years is feeling like a sucker now. 
Yeah, just paid off a 2.8% home loan early.  A sucker?  No - more like this.  My asset/liability ratio hangs around 1000:1 most months.

(Also, I don't think this low rate environment is going anywhere - so load up now, a year from now, two years from now!)

 
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TwinTurbo said:
It seems like if there was ever a time to borrow as much money as you can for as long as you can, now is the time.

I'm normally a zero debt guy, but anyone that was a saver and living within their means for the past few years is feeling like a sucker now. 
Paid off our mortgage early a few years ago, and not regretting being debt-free one bit. There will always be missed investment opportunities, and I don’t see any value kicking oneself for not cashing in on all of them.

 
TwinTurbo said:
It seems like if there was ever a time to borrow as much money as you can for as long as you can, now is the time.

I'm normally a zero debt guy, but anyone that was a saver and living within their means for the past few years is feeling like a sucker now. 
I remember someone a little over a decade ago telling me my commercial loan at 7% was tough to beat and I should lock in while I can.  :lmao:

Whats to say rates don’t go lower? Everyone has said they are shooting up soon for over a decade….if we get a crash look out. 

 
TwinTurbo said:
It seems like if there was ever a time to borrow as much money as you can for as long as you can, now is the time.

I'm normally a zero debt guy, but anyone that was a saver and living within their means for the past few years is feeling like a sucker now. 
For sure.  I know I am not close to keeping up with inflation.  A year from now, I am very concerned.  

 
Consumer prices jump 5.4%.  Inflation continues to rage. 

No worries, though - according to Biden spending trillions funded by debt will reduce inflation.   :lmao:
I’m still not seeing hard proof that inflation will run rampant, unabated, permanently.  Still seems like a post-pandemic “compare” to 2020.

That said, pumping trillions of debt into this situation is ridiculous, and is likely to either lead to inflation or simply choke the economy under a weight of debt.

 
I wanted the tax break, but also wanted the SS income limit to be removed at the same time.  Didn't like one without the other.
Understand my friend.  I got especially hosed and my taxes went up what is a significant amount for me. 

ETA

Let's remember too how Trump wanted to cut interest rates so that they were actually negative.  Good God what a disaster that would have been. 

 
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Consumer prices jump 5.4%.  Inflation continues to rage. 

No worries, though - according to Biden spending trillions funded by debt will reduce inflation.   :lmao:
I remember some advanced inflation discussion on a Reddit investing board a few months ago.  Most of the economics PhDs seemed to agree that the expectation of inflation was an elementary thought.  They were using terms like M1 and M2 and I can't do their argument justice because it was beyond my understanding and comprehension.  I've been stuck on the elementary thought that we will experience inflation.  The idea that money in the hands of the wealthy few impacts luxury items whereas money being handed to everyone drives everyday prices up makes sense to me. 

 
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I remember some advanced inflation discussion on a Reddit investing board a few months ago.  Most of the economics PhDs seemed to agree that the expectation of inflation was an elementary thought.  They were using terms like M1 and M2 and I can't do their argument justice because it was beyond my understanding and comprehension.  I've been stuck on the elementary thought that we will experience inflation.  The idea that money in the hands of the wealthy few impacts luxury items whereas money being handed to everyone drives everyday prices up makes sense to me. 
Been covered in this thread. The world is still coming to an end for those choosing to ignore that argument though. We still seem to be on track. 

 
Supply and demand.   We are dealing with shortages on many fronts, mainly due to Covid. 

If/when supply catches up to demand inflation will slow down.

 
Supply and demand.   We are dealing with shortages on many fronts, mainly due to Covid. 

If/when supply catches up to demand inflation will slow down.
That's part of it.  Dollar devaluation is another part.  I believe that prices for good and services will reset themselves a good bit higher and the working poor will come out behind.

 
That's part of it.  Dollar devaluation is another part.  I believe that prices for good and services will reset themselves a good bit higher and the working poor will come out behind.
That may be.  Hopefully wages will increase as well.    In some areas they already have because there is also a shortage of workers, both skilled and unskilled.

 
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Understand my friend.  I got especially hosed and my taxes went up what is a significant amount for me. 

ETA

Let's remember too how Trump wanted to cut interest rates so that they were actually negative.  Good God what a disaster that would have been. 
Oh and let's not forget the tariffs.  That drove prices up too. 

 
That may be.  Hopefully wages will increase as well.    In some areas they already have because there is also a shortage of workers, both skilled and unskilled.
Long overdue.    In a free market they should have been rising steadily for decades.  They haven't because individuals needed a job more than a business really needed a worker.  So businesses were willing to pay X for any particular position which was/is the "going rate" in any particular market and able to wait workers out.  When really what should have been happening is competition for those workers in the form of higher wages. 

 
Long overdue.    In a free market they should have been rising steadily for decades.  They haven't because individuals needed a job more than a business really needed a worker.  So businesses were willing to pay X for any particular position which was/is the "going rate" in any particular market and able to wait workers out.  When really what should have been happening is competition for those workers in the form of higher wages. 
This isn't quite true.  The market for college and up has shown pretty decent wage gains.  It's the unskilled labor market that has suffered.  Lots of reasons for that, but importing low priced competition by the millions is a big part of it.

 
Supply and demand.   We are dealing with shortages on many fronts, mainly due to Covid. 

If/when supply catches up to demand inflation will slow down.
The rub with the US is that we drive the consumption side of the equation for many countries and the few goods we actually provide are to countries that havent bounced back as quickly as we have

 
This isn't quite true.  The market for college and up has shown pretty decent wage gains.  It's the unskilled labor market that has suffered.  Lots of reasons for that, but importing low priced competition by the millions is a big part of it.
I found this interesting with regard to wage growth (there sequence of videos is pretty good).  The results of data all depends on what you decide to use an inputs.

Wage Growth

 
Good look at the great American Dollar and its purchasing power.  Figure 1.  We've seen a dramatic slope change in 2021 and a pretty steady degradation over the last 15 years.

 
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Good look at the great American Dollar and its purchasing power.  Figure 1.  We've seen a dramatic slope change in 2021 and a pretty steady degradation over the last 15 years.
This will only get worst as the federal government pumps trillions into this economy.  So let’s do the math here 3.5 trillion for various programs,  1.0 trillion for what’s being described as infrastructure then I think 1.9 trillion in march. 

 
PPI continues to be high and is rising at an 8.3% annual rate.  

This transitory inflation sure doesn't seem to be going anywhere...

 
Understand my friend.  I got especially hosed and my taxes went up what is a significant amount for me. 

ETA

Let's remember too how Trump wanted to cut interest rates so that they were actually negative.  Good God what a disaster that would have been. 
It's not up to him.    Good idea or not.

 
We need to invite the world's top economists to this thread so they can get educated on inflation and come up with solutions to this problem.  :thumbup:

 
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Max Power said:
His treasury secretary did. 
And almost all the worlds leading economists. Timeframe for all this has always included a 2-3 month window after we take the 20+ billion from the economy this last week. :shrug:

 
Max Power said:
His treasury secretary did. 
As did Powell.  Frankly, I think they're both trying to influence the markets by saying these things.  And, ultimately, they're knowingly being untruthful.

 
Still on team transitory, but have been uneasy about how long that might be lately.

Thought this thread, which includes a good argument for why that might be, was interesting.  Not sure what the right policy response would be even if it's right though.
That was a good read and there were a few things I didn't consider.  I think the average middle American is really going to wake up to inflation around the holidays.  The supply chain shortages for toys and electronics will be the talk of the table and everyone will realize their dollar isn't going as far as it used to.  

Seems like inflation will be transitory as long as covid can be blamed for it.  

 
That was a good read and there were a few things I didn't consider.  I think the average middle American is really going to wake up to inflation around the holidays.  The supply chain shortages for toys and electronics will be the talk of the table and everyone will realize their dollar isn't going as far as it used to.  

Seems like inflation will be transitory as long as covid can be blamed for it.  
We just took 20+ billion out of the economy in Sept.  This will impact through the end of the year for sure.

As mentioned earlier in this thread, we'll also struggle as an economy until the other economies are opened.  We consume way more than we produce and who we produce for isn't ready to consume on the levels we need them to.  We won't be "right" until all that works out and flow is consistent again.

Throw on top of that all the money we printed in 2020 and it's easy to see how we got where we are and we should consider ourselves lucky it's not worse yet.

 
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Count me in the non-transitory camp.

One of the biggest deflationary drivers over the past three decades has been globalization. Find the single cheapest supplier overseas and take advantage of constantly falling shipping costs.

In response to all the Covid disruptions, supply chains are now being reconfigured in every single industry. Diversify and increase number of supply sources for resiliency. Pay a little more to source key components locally. Many of those changes will stick.

Globalization went too far and couldn't handle a Black Swan event. Now reversal trends are in motion which will have a permanent impact on cost structures. Everywhere.

 
Stoneworker said:
Count me in the non-transitory camp.

One of the biggest deflationary drivers over the past three decades has been globalization. Find the single cheapest supplier overseas and take advantage of constantly falling shipping costs.

In response to all the Covid disruptions, supply chains are now being reconfigured in every single industry. Diversify and increase number of supply sources for resiliency. Pay a little more to source key components locally. Many of those changes will stick.

Globalization went too far and couldn't handle a Black Swan event. Now reversal trends are in motion which will have a permanent impact on cost structures. Everywhere.
:goodposting:

 
Some good stuff in here!

Should also add that to me "transitory" doesn't mean prices fall back to prior levels.  Just that inflation expectations remain in check and aren't priced into every wage or purchase contract on a ~permanent basis like the 1970s.  Inflation doesn't become self-perpetuating.

Agree that the real test is post-COVID when the dust shakes out and whatever the new normal is emerges.

 
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