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The INFLATION Thread, aka “The Putin Price Hike” (1 Viewer)

The current inflation is still mainly a result of supply and demand.  Fix the supply chain issues and inflation will take care of itself.
El-Arian was on this weekend and basically agreed with supply and demand, but indicated that he believed this wasn't transient and would be with us for quite a while.

"We're going to have more shortages of goods. We're going to have higher prices. Inflation will remain in the four to five percent level. And it's just going to take time to sort these things out, Chris. These things cannot be sorted out overnight. There were many years in the making and then COVID pressed fast forward and got everything accelerated and that's where we are now.

I always listen to what that guy says - he's pretty on top of it.  I'm still slanting investments to try and capture inflation related gains.  Best way to beat inflation is to ride the wave.

 
Unpopular opinion: raise taxes to control inflation.  

We pumped $4T into the economy through stimulus/UI benefits/PPP since Covid started.  This is on top of the tax cuts in 2018.   More money than goods.  

1944 - The Individual Income Tax as a Method of Inflation Control

Some people who oppose the use of taxation for any purpose other than the raising of revenue object to its use as an instrument of inflation control. Aside from the basic question of what are the proper uses of taxation, it may be observed that the purpose of raising revenue is itself closely tied up with inflation control. Underlying the purpose of raising revenue is a more fundamental purpose, that of avoiding the harmful effects which would follow if expenditures were indefinitely financed without taxation -- which in general would mean using the printing press or the banks as the source of funds. If such methods of financing produced no ill effects there would be no reason for the hair shirt of taxation. But such methods do produce ill effects of which the most spectacular and perhaps the most important is inflation. Over the centuries, the desirability of taxation as a source of funds has become somewhat detached from its underlying rationale and has acquired an authority of its own. At bottom, however, a fundamental objective of taxation, which largely determines the validity of the revenue objective, is the prevention and control of present and future inflation.


2019 - MMT raising taxes instead of interest rates to control inflation

Like most strands of economics, MMT thinks that inflation can result when aggregate demand (all the purchasing being done in the economy) outstrips the real stuff (consumer goods, factories for corporations, etc.) available for purchase. If there are a lot of dollars out there trying to purchase stuff, and not enough real stuff to purchase, that stuff becomes more expensive — so, inflation.

“The second reason [after making people use the currency] to have taxes … is to reduce aggregate demand,” the Mitchell, Wray, and Watts textbook states. Eliminating all taxes while spending 30 percent of GDP on government functions, they note, would spur a massive increase in aggregate demand, one that might cause dangerous inflation.

 
Unpopular opinion: raise taxes to control inflation.  

We pumped $4T into the economy through stimulus/UI benefits/PPP since Covid started.  This is on top of the tax cuts in 2018.   More money than goods.  

1944 - The Individual Income Tax as a Method of Inflation Control

Some people who oppose the use of taxation for any purpose other than the raising of revenue object to its use as an instrument of inflation control. Aside from the basic question of what are the proper uses of taxation, it may be observed that the purpose of raising revenue is itself closely tied up with inflation control. Underlying the purpose of raising revenue is a more fundamental purpose, that of avoiding the harmful effects which would follow if expenditures were indefinitely financed without taxation -- which in general would mean using the printing press or the banks as the source of funds. If such methods of financing produced no ill effects there would be no reason for the hair shirt of taxation. But such methods do produce ill effects of which the most spectacular and perhaps the most important is inflation. Over the centuries, the desirability of taxation as a source of funds has become somewhat detached from its underlying rationale and has acquired an authority of its own. At bottom, however, a fundamental objective of taxation, which largely determines the validity of the revenue objective, is the prevention and control of present and future inflation.


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2019 - MMT raising taxes instead of interest rates to control inflation


Quote

Like most strands of economics, MMT thinks that inflation can result when aggregate demand (all the purchasing being done in the economy) outstrips the real stuff (consumer goods, factories for corporations, etc.) available for purchase. If there are a lot of dollars out there trying to purchase stuff, and not enough real stuff to purchase, that stuff becomes more expensive — so, inflation.

“The second reason [after making people use the currency] to have taxes … is to reduce aggregate demand,” the Mitchell, Wray, and Watts textbook states. Eliminating all taxes while spending 30 percent of GDP on government functions, they note, would spur a massive increase in aggregate demand, one that might cause dangerous inflation.
Don't forget the significant money printing event in 2020.  The slight sliver of good news here is that we effectively took $20B+ out of the economy starting in Sept.  But again, it's going to get worse before it gets better.  The better sign is that the bond markets seem to "get it" and don't seem to care at the moment.  

 
Unpopular opinion: raise taxes to control inflation.  

We pumped $4T into the economy through stimulus/UI benefits/PPP since Covid started.  This is on top of the tax cuts in 2018.   More money than goods.  

1944 - The Individual Income Tax as a Method of Inflation Control

2019 - MMT raising taxes instead of interest rates to control inflation
Basically what that is  proposing then is redistribution in a much more massive scale, that would be the net. Hard pass on letting the government take an even larger role in determining who should get other people’s money. When it comes to the common defense, roads, bridges, ok. We are already to the point of paying people not working to stay home from the revenues raised from those of us who do, I don’t think going even further down that path is wise fiscally or for stability. 

 
fun fact - we could take people 75% of their income ... and the US Fed Govt would still spend all that and trillions more

taxing income is irrelevant, it really doesn't matter

 
Just don't agree with them that "the increases are not broad based."  We've seen substantial inflation in housing, cars, food, appliances, fuel, rents, and the list goes on.  I don't know what else there is to claim what we're seeing is "narrow".
Agreed. They are lying through their teeth. Feeble attempts not to stoke fears which would just feed the beast. When P&G raises prices on regular consumer goods I can't see how anyone can argue not "broad based."

Procter & Gamble (PG), one of the country's largest consumer goods manufacturers, said Tuesday that it's raising prices on certain grooming, beauty and oral care products for retail customers to combat higher costs.

The exact amount of price increases will vary by specific item, but will be in the mid-single digit percentage range,

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/19/business/procter-and-gamble-prices-olay-crest-oral-b/index.html

 
Agreed. They are lying through their teeth. Feeble attempts not to stoke fears which would just feed the beast. When P&G raises prices on regular consumer goods I can't see how anyone can argue not "broad based."

Procter & Gamble (PG), one of the country's largest consumer goods manufacturers, said Tuesday that it's raising prices on certain grooming, beauty and oral care products for retail customers to combat higher costs.

The exact amount of price increases will vary by specific item, but will be in the mid-single digit percentage range,

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/19/business/procter-and-gamble-prices-olay-crest-oral-b/index.html
I noted earlier El-Arian (who I always listen to as he's brilliant) thought inflation was not transient.  To add:

Billionaire grocery store owner - food prices will rise dramatically

Paul Tudor Jones - Inflation not transient, biggest threat to our economy.

 
Good to see they're on top of this issue!!


Between this and the Sec. of Transportation who abandoned his post for 2-3 months (without telling anyone) in the middle of this mess tells you exactly how important the administration sees this issue.

 
I noted earlier El-Arian (who I always listen to as he's brilliant) thought inflation was not transient.  To add:

Billionaire grocery store owner - food prices will rise dramatically

Paul Tudor Jones - Inflation not transient, biggest threat to our economy.
Agreed. Good stuff.

We can also add wage and housing inflation (rent) which will be non-transitory due supply/demand fundamentals.

Plus the fact that the Fed is reticent to raise interest rates given employment criteria and will invariably wait too long to act anyway.

What we've really got here is stagflation.

 
Agreed. Good stuff.

We can also add wage and housing inflation (rent) which will be non-transitory due supply/demand fundamentals.

Plus the fact that the Fed is reticent to raise interest rates given employment criteria and will invariably wait too long to act anyway.

What we've really got here is stagflation.
Property values at least where I am have risen so much that rents are going to have to move up to get back in line with normal return rates.  The only other way out is rising interest rates suppress property values again but we seem to be hesitant to raise rates.  Therefore, I see rents continuing to climb as well. 

I just non-renewed a tenant in one of my better properties because he frankly complained about small items rather than fixing anything himself.  In this market when someone calls my guys out because their toilet chain isn't adjusted just right I feel like I can find a better tenant at the same rate so I don't get all those type calls.

 
You know what the cool thing about transitory inflation is?  There's no definition of transitory.  Technically everything in life is transitory. 

 
Those who don't study history are doomed to repeat it. 

You never beat inflation by feeding it because the simple truth is that ANYTHING that is easily available (lots of currency being printed, made available, etc, etc) never has value.  It's like printing commemorative collector copies of baseball cards, comics, etc.  You print 300,000 of them and everyone has one and nobody needs one.  

It is about scarcity that creates value. 

At some point the only way to defeat inflation is to make the hard decision in order to ride it out and curb it. At some point we will have to REDUCE the money supply, not keep throwing cash at everything. There must be a contractionary monetary policy implemented if we are to make any progress. 

 
Investment community beginning to capitulate in favor of team non-transitory...

A key measure of investors’ inflation expectations has climbed in recent weeks, adding fuel to concerns about rising consumer prices. 

As of Thursday, the gauge known as the 10-year break-even rate suggested that the consumer-price index will rise by an annual average of 2.64% over the next decade... the highest level since 2012.

Rising break-even rates worry some investors because the move suggests current inflation pressures could last longer than previously expected. 

Source: WSJ

 
You know what the cool thing about transitory inflation is?  There's no definition of transitory.  Technically everything in life is transitory. 
Transitory was this year.  Now according to Yellen transitory is inflation lasting until at least this time next year.

So transitory is now transitory.  

 
Transitory was this year.  Now according to Yellen transitory is inflation lasting until at least this time next year.

So transitory is now transitory.  
We all know that "transitory" is a joke when considered as a time-based definition. Yellen, Powell, Dem economists - they're all full of it.

But giving them some amount of credit...they may also be looking at it from an interventionist perspective.

In other words, will the increased inflation rates go away on their own (transitory) or will significant Fed interest rate intervention be required to tamp it down (non-transitory)? Regardless of how long it lasts?

Yellen at least honestly believes high inflation is transitory in both senses. She is already wrong on one and IMO will be wrong on the other.

The Fed will wait too long, the rate rise(s) will be higher and more sudden than they otherwise need to be, asset prices will get hammered, liquidity will dry up and the economy will sink into a pretty major recession. Party over.

 
I don’t see them raising rates.  Ever.  If they haven’t had the gumption to do it by now it’s hard to imagine them doing it when it will be even more damaging (in the short term) and unpopular.  
 

I’m already seeing mainstream articles like “inflation is good actually” and “rising prices is awesome!”  🤡 

 
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In a shocking, shocking turn of events, the SF Fed has found that the dramatic increase in the money supply due to Biden's 1.9T stimulus was stoking inflation.
But of course it wouldn't be a Fed quote without the obligatory "but temporary!" conclusion...

The good news is that the SF Fed researchers believe the stimulus package's impact on inflation and the jobs market is likely only temporary, peaking this year and falling after that.

 
But of course it wouldn't be a Fed quote without the obligatory "but temporary!" conclusion...

The good news is that the SF Fed researchers believe the stimulus package's impact on inflation and the jobs market is likely only temporary, peaking this year and falling after that.
Yellen has contradicted that conclusion.

 
I like the Atlantic’s angle - stop complaining you spoiled brats.  And stop buying so much stuff.
Lol. Reminds me of Jimmy Carter's "put on a sweater" speech.

"We must face the fact that the energy shortage is permanent. There is no way we can solve it quickly. But if we all cooperate, and make modest sacrifices, if we learn to live thriftily and remember the importance of helping our neighbors, then we can find ways to adjust, and to make our society more efficient, and our own lives more enjoyable and productive." 
  -- President Jimmy Carter to the American People, February 2, 1977

Jimmy Carter put on a sweater

 
Christmas 2021: Experts anticipate most expensive in decades as inflation, supply chain crisis lingers

As the nation heads into the Christmas season, fears are mounting that massive inflation and ongoing supply chain issues will make this holiday one of the most expensive in memory. 

Luca Pautasso, a New York-based financial services provider, told Fox Business that public spending and a shortage of goods have created the "perfect storm." 

"It’s going to be a tough Christmas," he said. "Many projections say that this is going to be the most expensive … Christmas in the last 30 years."

He noted that although many Americans have seen their paychecks increase, it is still not enough to fight against the huge rates of inflation the country is facing. But it remains to be seen exactly how Americans will adapt to this climate, he said. 

"It will be hard to keep the same pace of spending … but people are going to still try to outdo the Christmas they're used to," he said. 

Much of the anticipated shortages originate with the global supply chain crisis, which is affecting the price of virtually everything from the food on our plates to raw and packaging materials. 

Jennifer Blackhurst, a professor of business analytics at the University of Iowa Tippie College of Business and a global supply chain expert, cautioned that "panic buying" as was done at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic is the wrong approach and will make matters worse in the long run. 

"The more we have this panic buying now, the bigger that’s going to cause the shortage and the problems in the supply chain to be," Blackhurst told FOX Business. "And so what we want to encourage consumers is, you don’t need to go out and buy stockpiles of products, but you might want to be thinking about shopping now … for the holidays."

...

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/christmas-expensive-covid-global-supply-chain-crisis-inflation

 
Christmas 2021: Experts anticipate most expensive in decades as inflation, supply chain crisis lingers


When you have a Transportation Sec. that abandons his post for 2 months, an Energy secretary that laughs when asked about supplying more oil, a Fed that is still pumping, and a Congress that is continuing to spend like drunken sailors I'd say the environment is still quite ripe for inflation to continue apace.

 
And if there was any doubt MSNBC was a propaganda arm of the blue team:  Inflation is good.


This is always the PATTERN of the lies on the left.

That thing won't happen and you're a conspiracy theorist for suggesting it will.

That thing is not happening just because it's being reported in right wing media.

That thing that happened was an outlier, an exception.

Th thing is not happening at nearly the rate being reported.

That thing is happening and it's about damn time. It's a good thing.
 
Lol. Reminds me of Jimmy Carter's "put on a sweater" speech.

"We must face the fact that the energy shortage is permanent. There is no way we can solve it quickly. But if we all cooperate, and make modest sacrifices, if we learn to live thriftily and remember the importance of helping our neighbors, then we can find ways to adjust, and to make our society more efficient, and our own lives more enjoyable and productive." 
  -- President Jimmy Carter to the American People, February 2, 1977

Jimmy Carter put on a sweater
Carter had a good point about thrift. There are ways for people to combat food inflation simply by eating less and eating better. Have you checked out the nation's average BMI? The line at the coffee cart this morning was over 10 deep including many workers making less than $25 per hour. Options include making coffee in the office or at home. How about making food at home and bringing it to the office, instead of going to the cafeteria or using UberEats. Rice and bean meals are still cheap. Meatless Mondays. Portion control.  

Not much many people can do about gas prices, maybe this will increase the use of more energy efficient cars. Sweaters in the home and moving the thermostat a few degrees isn't hard. 

The big inflation worry for many is the increase in the cost of housing.  I'm not sure what the government can do about that short-term.  The opportunity zone tax breaks in Miami was a joke if the goal was to build affordable housing. One of the biggest such zones in the USA is Sole MIA, which is not affordable housing for most Miamians. This was an opportunity zone because it includes a small old trailer park. 

Supply and demand will come into play at some point.  In the Miami area, the skyline is dominated by increasingly tall skyscrapers condos bought by wealthy from outside the region, many are just parking their money. In my office are several people in their 30s who live with their parents. 

 
Carter had a good point about thrift. There are ways for people to combat food inflation simply by eating less and eating better. Have you checked out the nation's average BMI? The line at the coffee cart this morning was over 10 deep including many workers making less than $25 per hour. Options include making coffee in the office or at home. How about making food at home and bringing it to the office, instead of going to the cafeteria or using UberEats. Rice and bean meals are still cheap. Meatless Mondays. Portion control.  

Not much many people can do about gas prices, maybe this will increase the use of more energy efficient cars. Sweaters in the home and moving the thermostat a few degrees isn't hard. 

The big inflation worry for many is the increase in the cost of housing.  I'm not sure what the government can do about that short-term.  The opportunity zone tax breaks in Miami was a joke if the goal was to build affordable housing. One of the biggest such zones in the USA is Sole MIA, which is not affordable housing for most Miamians. This was an opportunity zone because it includes a small old trailer park. 

Supply and demand will come into play at some point.  In the Miami area, the skyline is dominated by increasingly tall skyscrapers condos bought by wealthy from outside the region, many are just parking their money. In my office are several people in their 30s who live with their parents. 
You're right of course we could all live thriftier but this is a consumption society.  It won't fly when it comes election time.  Inflation hits the poor and middle class more than it does the wealthy as you pointed out with gas prices.  It takes the guy washing dishes at the diner downtown just as much gas to get there as the CEO working in the skyscraper. But of course it's a way larger percentage of his income and especially a larger percentage of any excess funds or savings he may have to cover those costs.

Supply and demand are taking hold already.  We are increasing demand from near unlimited pumping of funds into the economy, paired with a hurting supply chain limiting the demand.  The guys owning the property will be fine, I've seen my rental properties explode during all this.  Even if they do adjust down a little, which is no guarantee if you go look at real estate prices throughout the 70's, their rents should more than offset that.

 
Then why keep it so low?  You are confusing interest rates with inflation.  
Do you want your house to appreciate?  Without inflation, there is no need to spend the money today as the price will be the same next year. 

The Fed has a target inflation rate of 2%.  Not interest rates.  

 
Carter had a good point about thrift. There are ways for people to combat food inflation simply by eating less and eating better. Have you checked out the nation's average BMI? The line at the coffee cart this morning was over 10 deep including many workers making less than $25 per hour. Options include making coffee in the office or at home. How about making food at home and bringing it to the office, instead of going to the cafeteria or using UberEats. Rice and bean meals are still cheap. Meatless Mondays. Portion control.  

Not much many people can do about gas prices, maybe this will increase the use of more energy efficient cars. Sweaters in the home and moving the thermostat a few degrees isn't hard. 

The big inflation worry for many is the increase in the cost of housing.  I'm not sure what the government can do about that short-term.  The opportunity zone tax breaks in Miami was a joke if the goal was to build affordable housing. One of the biggest such zones in the USA is Sole MIA, which is not affordable housing for most Miamians. This was an opportunity zone because it includes a small old trailer park. 

Supply and demand will come into play at some point.  In the Miami area, the skyline is dominated by increasingly tall skyscrapers condos bought by wealthy from outside the region, many are just parking their money. In my office are several people in their 30s who live with their parents. 
Thrift certainly has its place at an individual budgetary level.

But stifle demand at the macro level as Carter was advocating and you will trigger a classic deflationary spiral that the Fed simply cannot fight because it has no more tools left. Lower demand, falling prices, debt defaults, bankruptcies, layoffs and wage reductions and back to lower demand, falling prices, etc.

If current high inflation is mostly caused by historical supply not keeping up with historical demand, the solution is to fix the supply issues. Not lower demand to meet reduced supply.

Do that and the people on the supply side currently out of work are going to stay out of work.

 
Do you want your house to appreciate?  Without inflation, there is no need to spend the money today as the price will be the same next year. 
See the comment above on deflationary death spiral.  IMO, economists want a bit of inflation because they are terrified of deflation.  2% is their buffer.

 
See the comment above on deflationary death spiral.  IMO, economists want a bit of inflation because they are terrified of deflation.  2% is their buffer.
I agree.  Deflation is bad.  Stagflation is bad.  High Inflation is bad.  Low inflation is good. 

 
Wife and I had back to back reminders of how bad things are getting last night.  We stopped at our favorite dinner spot which is known to be slightly pricey, but the portion sizes are huge and 90% of the time serve as the next day's lunch so it offsets the cost.

The place was understaffed, the service was slow, and when the food came out the portion was scaled back in a very noticeable way.  The price stayed the same and the food was still good, but it was a very underwhelming evening out.

With no leftovers we stopped at the butcher on the way home and the meat prices have continued to go up.  Even chicken is starting to become overpriced.  $65 dollars for 6 chicken breasts and two steaks. Over the summer this same haul was roughly $45. 

I can't wait for the Whitehouse to tell me how much money I've saved at this Thanksgiving vs the last.  

 
NPR: Inflation surges to its highest since 1990. With quotes from Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco

Surging prices are steadily chipping away at Americans' buying power – as well as President Biden's approval rating.

The Labor Department reported Wednesday that consumer prices were 6.2% higher in October than a year ago. That's the sharpest increase since November of 1990. Price increases were widespread, with energy, shelter, food and vehicles all costing more. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, prices were up 4.6%

Much of the upward pressure on prices is the result of a mismatch between booming demand and limited supply, as businesses struggle to find both parts and workers.

Many employers have increased pay in order to attract more workers. But growing paychecks have quickly been eroded by the rising cost of gas and groceries.

"For families, they're feeling it right now," says Mary Daly, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. "If you got to a grocery store, you buy food that you usually buy, you then fill your gas tank on the way home so you can go to work or take your kids to school, you're feeling this."

"When you then look at the winter coming and you realize your fuel bill for heating your home is going to rise as the winter comes, you're nervous," she added.

 
Wife and I had back to back reminders of how bad things are getting last night.  We stopped at our favorite dinner spot which is known to be slightly pricey, but the portion sizes are huge and 90% of the time serve as the next day's lunch so it offsets the cost.

The place was understaffed, the service was slow, and when the food came out the portion was scaled back in a very noticeable way.  The price stayed the same and the food was still good, but it was a very underwhelming evening out.

With no leftovers we stopped at the butcher on the way home and the meat prices have continued to go up.  Even chicken is starting to become overpriced.  $65 dollars for 6 chicken breasts and two steaks. Over the summer this same haul was roughly $45. 

I can't wait for the Whitehouse to tell me how much money I've saved at this Thanksgiving vs the last.  
Inflation is bad for the team in charge, no question. It's also a European phenomenon as Eurozone inflation hit a 13 year high. The root causes of inflation have little to do with Biden policies, but he needs do a better job than Carter did explaining the situation.

We could eat more compassionate food, such as rice and beans, but we're too much of a consumerism and complacent society. 

 
Again, this has little to do with Biden policies although it will affect the Dems at the polls. 

Eurozone inflation hits 13-year high amid persistent energy crunch

>>As Europe's economy recovers, things are getting expensive – really expensive.

The latest data from Eurostat shows inflation in the eurozone hitting 4.1% – the highest figure since the Great Recession and almost double the 2.2% annual estimation of the European Central Bank (ECB).

Annual inflation – the rate at which prices for goods and services change over time – was already high in September (3.4%), but a persistent energy crunch has sent electricity bills soaring, driving up along the way all kinds of products and services.

In October, inflation for energy reached a stunning 23.5% (up from 17.6% in September on an annual basis). The European Commission expects energy costs to remain high until March or April, when temperatures increase and electricity consumption from heating decreases.

Rising energy prices, the recovery in demand and supply bottlenecks are currently pushing up inflation. While inflation will take longer to decline than previously expected, we expect these factors to ease in the course of next year," Lagarde said on Thursday, in anticipation of the October data.

"We continue to foresee inflation in the medium term remaining below our 2% targets."<<

 


Just don't agree with them that "the increases are not broad based."  We've seen substantial inflation in housing, cars, food, appliances, fuel, rents, and the list goes on.  I don't know what else there is to claim what we're seeing is "narrow".
:goodposting:

Increases aren't broad based? 

Okay.... Let's list 5 legit categories that AREN'T inflating... 

 

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