The Commish
Footballguy
. What is going on?Sorry. This one is just wrong. Hard to take someone seriously in an inflation thread who doesn't even understand the definition of inflation.
Take it up with any self respecting economist.
. What is going on?Sorry. This one is just wrong. Hard to take someone seriously in an inflation thread who doesn't even understand the definition of inflation.
Just trying to prevent the spread of misinformation.. What is going on?
Take it up with any self respecting economist.
captain twitter would.OMG At least we know now unles Biden dies in office Harris will never be POTUS. Not sure even Dems would vote for Harris.
>>Processed meats, such as sausages, bacon and hot dogs, are high-cholesterol foods that should be limited. High consumption of processed meats has been linked to increased rates of heart disease and certain cancers like colon cancer.<<Bacon costs 27 percent more since Biden got elected. Seems like something you could be impeached for?
American wasn’t won on salad, but bacon and steak!>>Processed meats, such as sausages, bacon and hot dogs, are high-cholesterol foods that should be limited. High consumption of processed meats has been linked to increased rates of heart disease and certain cancers like colon cancer.<<
Is bacon bad for you? I used to like bacon,
Stoneworker said:CBS interview with Neel Kashkari. This could be the very first time a Fed official has admitted that Congress' policies are having an impact on inflation from the demand side.
We're seeing both a surge of demand because Congress has given a lot of money to families and businesses to get through the pandemic, but we're also seeing supply disruptions at the same time because of the COVID virus.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/transcript-neel-kashkari-face-the-nation-11-14-2021/
Thank you, member of Team Transitory.We could fix inflation this week if we stop buying stuff. He's kidding - sort of.
It really is as simple as pent up pandemic demand + flush with cash (just look at that chart if you doubt) + supply disruptions.
Demand will eventually subside, excess cash will be spent, and supply chains will unkink. Meanwhile people with a job and especially people with a job in industries where wages are matching inflation (it's happening in aggregate, but that doesn't mean everyone is benefitting) will see the real value of their debt decrease via the inflation.
I'm not sure if they are "Democrat" economists, but the Nobel prizes are nice.“Because this agenda invests in long-term economic capacity and will enhance the ability of more Americans to participate productively in the economy, it will ease longer-term inflationary pressures.”
Honestly, I'm still trying to figure it all out myself. I would agree those three were definitely the "triggers."If it's not pandemic demand, trillions in cash payments and supply chain issues -- what is it?
Or are you arguing those three features will last forever?
If Biden is correct that inflation is transitory, then why does he need a 10-year spending program to fight it?Economists think Build Back Better will help curb inflation long term
I'm not sure if they are "Democrat" economists, but the Nobel prizes are nice.
It does. It would really benefit you to read the context of quotes. Here you are trying to frame this as me saying the only way inflation happens is if the dollar decreases in value and prices go up. Far from it. The question that was asked was around the value of the dollar and costs shooting up so those were the only two things mentioned. Again, in that conversation, "costs going up" <> "inflation". They are simply costs going up. NONE of that conversation had ANYTHING to do with the particulars of the situation we are in. I've said a multitude of times in this thread and others that the unchecked printing of money during the year 2020 as well as the pumping of money into the economy (which ended in Sept) are really large factors in this entire thing. It's going to take a while to get the desire/demand side down from it's inflated levels even if we didn't have the supply issues we have. As stated in July, it was always going to get significantly worse before it got better. Where I think the error was made was the supply chain issues. Many figured it would be into Dec/Jan...now it's looking more like Apr/MayJust trying to prevent the spread of misinformation.
You stated "inflation happens when the value of the dollar decreases in comparison to other currencies AND things get more expensive."
During 2021 the CPI has increased at nearly a 7% annualized rate.
During 2021 the value of the dollar (USXY) has gone from 90 to 95.
So prices have increased. And the dollar has gone up, not down. You and your "self-respecting economists" are wrong.
It is more than just an anti-inflation bill. Investing in America seems like a bipartisan goal.If Biden is correct that inflation is transitory, then why does he need a 10-year spending program to fight it?
It cost $82 to fuel up my pickup last week. I need my diesel truck to pull a horse trailer but don’t drive it much in the winter months fortunately.They raised the price on gas today by 7 cents, 3.67 a gallon. Thanks JOE!
Great post.Honestly, I'm still trying to figure it all out myself. I would agree those three were definitely the "triggers."
But they have already triggered other things that could take some time to ramp up but be far stickier cost pressures IMO.
For example, wage pressures, rent pressures, reduced workforce participation (i.e. which would reduce supply further while not affecting demand), domestic U.S. oil and gas companies that have underinvested over the past decade to focus on paying off debt and therefore cannot quickly ramp up to make up for OPEC. Etc.
Also the 30-year globalization of the supply chain that has been a major deflationary force is unwinding to focus on resiliency after the pandemic. Another one in the wrong direction.
Also, the Fed is between a rock and hard place with interest rates. Raising them to fight inflation will destroy asset prices, raise interest payments on national debt and risk major recession. So can't react quickly or strongly.
Downstream from your link showing a huge transfer from services to goods, post start of the pandemic.We could fix inflation this week if we stop buying stuff. He's kidding - sort of.
It really is as simple as pent up pandemic demand + flush with cash (just look at that chart if you doubt) + supply disruptions.
Demand will eventually subside, excess cash will be spent, and supply chains will unkink. Meanwhile people with a job and especially people with a job in industries where wages are matching inflation (it's happening in aggregate, but that doesn't mean everyone is benefitting) will see the real value of their debt decrease via the inflation.
Good thing Joe put in place a secretary who abandoned his post for 2 months during this.Where I think the error was made was the supply chain issues.
I don't know but I've heard concerns that the Fed can't battle inflation this time with a raise in interest rates because that would kill our ability to service our debt.Aren't we in a better place to fight inflation than during the 1970s and 1980s due to a low unemployment rate?
Just remember that as much as inflation helps debtors that it inflates asset prices. So with this you have to swallow increased wealth inequality. This administration is making this choice - let's hope they're honest about the effects of what they're doing (or not doing) here.Given wage growth in the last few months and the benefits of inflation to debtors, I'd still be slow to pull the trigger but I'm definitely more concerned than I was.
I find it strange that you continue to attack a man for spending time with his infant children.Good thing Joe put in place a secretary who abandoned his post for 2 months during this.
I find it strange that we don't acknowledge that some positions, should you choose to accept them, don't realistically carry with them the ability to take 2 months off. I find it mind boggling that some folks do.I find it strange that you continue to attack a man for spending time with his infant children.
There are lots of jobs available. Maybe she's right during this time of excess cash and low unemployment with millions of unfilled jobs.
1. I'd bet he was working everyday. Some people can work from home now. They can also delegate work. And we have smart phones now.I find it strange that we don't acknowledge that some positions, should you choose to accept them, don't realistically carry with them the ability to take 2 months off. I find it mind boggling that some folks do.
This is a Cabinet level position.
Not sure that's really good at all if I'm being honestGood thing Joe put in place a secretary who abandoned his post for 2 months during this.
She just has no concept that inflation is a permanent erosion and the excess cash she's talking about has had the spigot turned off. There is already evidence from credit card debt numbers that Americans have run through the cash and are back putting things on their cards.There are lots of jobs available. Maybe she's right during this time of excess cash and low unemployment with millions of unfilled jobs.
If I remember correctly he tried or did freeze wages too. Could be wrong but I seem to recall something like that.I am surprised the Biden admin has not mandated price controls. Nixon tried this in the early 70's.
Glad to have Thanksgiving in person this year.National average for gas is $3.41 a gallon, up 60 percent from last year. Enjoy your drive to Your thanksgiving dinner this year, and then thank Joe for the extra cost it takes to get their.
How much of the increase in the price of gas is driven by increased demand, how much by Biden's policies, and how much should Joe interfere with the market?National average for gas is $3.41 a gallon, up 60 percent from last year. Enjoy your drive to Your thanksgiving dinner this year, and then thank Joe for the extra cost it takes to get their.
Why would that change with Covid still running rampant?Glad to have Thanksgiving in person this year.
How much of the increase in the price of gas is driven by increased demand, how much by Biden's policies, and how much should Joe interfere with the market?
Why would that change with Covid still running rampant?
More of a political decision for you?
Agreed, we have it every year and never missed one. To skip it last year then act like it's back now....when covid is still as uncontrolled as ever is quite interesting.I was thinking the same thing - I've had Thanksgiving every year, no changes
My parents are both vaccinated this year.Why would that change with Covid still running rampant?
More of a political decision for you?
How much of the increase in the price of gas is driven by increased demand, how much by Biden's policies, and how much should Joe interfere with the market?
Was the discussion over natural gas or gasoline?Here is the gas demand:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9140us2M.htm
Doesn't look like demand is up. Pretty similar levels compared to 2018-2020.
Here are the US imports:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9100us2m.htm
Looks like imports are at similar levels from 2018-2019, but up compared to 2020.
Here are the US exports:
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/n9130us2m.htm
This show that exports are way up compared to 2018-2020.
Now if she can solve how to string along a coherent thought we might get somewhere. Just sad.
Was the discussion over natural gas or gasoline?
Based on your numbers (Supply as a percentage of demand)You're right. Here is gasoline:
https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/weekly/gasoline.php
Looks like demand is up from a year ago, as well as US production.
Demand a year ago: 8.483 million barrels per day (4 week average today 9.430)
US Supply a year ago: 9.105 million barrels per day (4 week average today 10.091)
Imports a year ago: 0.512 million barrels per day (4 week average today 0.588)
Total demand v supply a year ago: 8.483/9.617 (diff 1.134)
Total demand v supply today: 9.430/10.679 (diff 1.249)
From the looks of it, the supply we have on a daily basis is higher today than it was a year ago.
DISCLAIMER: I admit, I could be reading the charts wrong. But it doesn't look like supply and demand are too much different than a year ago.
EDIT: When I looked at 2019 (Covid really messed with the 2020 supply/demand numbers), the US supply was definitely higher than 2021. The imports for 2021 are waaaaay up compared to 2019. Which would lead me to speculate that the US supply was reduced due to Biden policies. When the demand increased, we were now forced to import larger amounts of gas at higher prices because US companies were no longer supplying at high amounts. Admittedly, that's my non-expert look at the charts.
2019 Total demand v supply today: 9.145/10.526 (diff 1.381)