The Johan Santana rumor mill (1 Viewer)

[guru_007]

I have a feeling if both the Sox and Yankees deals stay as they are currently constructed, that he'll stay a Twin. Quite frankly Hughes, Cabrera, and a third tier prospect isn't enough for the best pitcher in baseball when you can get two 1st round picks the following year.

First round draft picks in baseball are a significant crap shoot. Look at any year really. I'd rather have major league ready talent than baseball draft picks for a guy that is under contract for one more year and I don't think I can resign him. I'm not saying the Yankees or Red Sox offers are overwhelming, but they both contain very good pieces.

Not really. It use to be the case, but with so much good scouting today the vast majority of high ceiling guys are gone after the supplemental picks unless you throw a huge bonus at some high school kid. Keeping those picks has become increasingly crucial to having a viable farm system (if my memory serves me right, BP did a study and founf each pick is worth something like 10-15 million dollars) unless you think Melky is really the second coming of Bernie, trading a Santana for a Hughes/Melky/third tier prospect is a losing proposition since neither Melky now the third tier prospect are worth either of the two picks. Santana for a year+two picks is greater than either of those packages (though the Sox package of somthing like Ellsbury/Lowrie/Masterson comes a lot closer to meeting that threshold). Unless the Twins get two top tier prospects back or 1 top tier and 2 upper tier prospect back, I just don't see why they'd do it.

PICK PLAYER POS TEAM SCHOOL1 Bryan Bullington RHP Pirates Ball State2 B.J. Upton SS Devil Rays Chesapeake, VA3 Chris Gruler RHP Reds Brentwood, CA4 Adam Loewen LHP Orioles Surrey, BC5 Clint Everts RHP Expos Houston, TX6 Zack Greinke RHP Royals Apopka, FL7 Prince Fielder 1B Brewers Melbourne, FL8 Scott Moore SS Tigers Cypress, CA9 Jeff Francis LHP Rockies U. of British Columbia10 Drew Meyer SS Rangers South Carolina11 Jeremy Hermida OF Marlins Marietta, GA12 Joe Saunders LHP Angels Virginia Tech13 Khalil Greene SS Padres Clemson14 Russ Adams SS Blue Jays North Carolina15 Scott Kazmir LHP Mets Houston, TX16 Nick Swisher 1B Athletics Ohio State17 Cole Hamels LHP Phillies San Diego, CA18 Roger Ring LHP White Sox San Diego State19 James Loney 1B Dodgers Missouri City, TX20 Denard Span OF Twins Tampa, FLPICK PLAYER POS TEAM SCHOOL21 Bobby Brownlie RHP Cubs Rutgers22 Jeremy Guthrie RHP Indians Stanford23 Jeff Francoeur OF Braves Lilburn, GA24 Joseph Blanton RHP Athletics Kentucky25 Matt Cain RHP Giants Germantown, TN26 John McCurdy SS Athletics Maryland27 Sergio Santos SS D-Backs Hacienda Heights, CA28 John Mayberry, Jr. 1B Mariners Kansas City, MO29 Derick Grigsby RHP Astros Northeast Texas CC30 Ben Fritz RHP Athletics Fresno StateGlossaryMLB First Round Draft Picks - 2003PICK PLAYER POS TEAM SCHOOL1 Delmon Young OF Devil Rays Camirillo HS2 Rickie Weeks 2B Brewers Southern U3 Kyle Sleeth RHP Tigers Wake Forest U4 Tim Stauffer RHP Padres U. of Richmond5 Chris Lubanski OF Royals Kennedy-Kenrick HS6 Ryan Harvey OF Cubs Dunedin HS7 Nick Markakis LHP Orioles Young Harris (Ga.) JC8 Paul Maholm LHP Pirates Mississippi State U.9 John Danks LHP Rangers Round Rock HS10 Ian Stewart 3B Rockies La Quinta HS11 Michael Aubrey 1B Indians Tulane U.12 Lastings Milledge OF Mets Lakewood Ranch HS13 Aaron Hill SS Blue Jays Louisiana State U.14 Ryan Wagner RHP Reds U . of Houston15 Brian Anderson OF White Sox U. of Arizona16 Jeffrey Allison RHP Marlins Veterans Memorial HS17 David Murphy OF Red Sox Baylor U.18 Bradley Snyder OF Indians Ball State U.19 Connor Jackson 3B D-Backs U. of California20 Chad Cordero RHP Expos California State U.PICK PLAYER POS TEAM SCHOOL21 Matthew Moses 3B Twins Mills Godwinn HS22 David Aardsma RHP Giants Rice U.23 Richard Wood SS Angels Horizon HS (AZ)24 Chad Billingsley RHP Dodgers Defiant Senior HS (OH)25 Bradley Sullivan RHP Athletics U. of Houston26 Bryan Snyder 3B Athletics Stetson U.27 Eric Duncan 3B Yankees Seton Hall Prep (NJ)28 Daric Barton C Cardinals Marina HS (CA)29 Carlos Quentin OF D-Backs Stanford U.30 Mitchell Myer C Royals U. of ToledoMLB First Round Draft Picks - 2004PICK PLAYER POS TEAM SCHOOL1 Matt Bush SS Padres Mission Bay HS, El Cajon, CA2 Justin Verlander RHP Tigers Old Dominion3 Philip Humber RHP Mets Rice4 Jeff Niemann RHP Devil Rays Rice5 Mark Rogers RHP Brewers Mount Ararat HS, Orr's Island, ME6 Jeremy Sowers LHP Indians Vanderbilt7 Homer Bailey RHP Reds La Grange (Texas) HS8 Wade Townsend RHP Orioles Rice9 Chris Nelson SS Rockies Redan HS, Decatur, GA10 Thomas Diamond RHP Rangers New Orleans11 Neil Walker C Pirates Pine Richland HS, Gibsonia, PA12 Jered Weaver RHP Angels Long Beach State13 Bill Bray LHP Expos William and Mary14 Billy Butler 1B/3B Royals Wolfson HS, Jacksonville15 Stephen Drew SS Diamondbacks Florida State16 David Purcey LHP Blue Jays Oklahoma17 Scott Elbert LHP Dodgers Seneca (MO) HS18 Josh Fields 3B White Sox Oklahoma State19 Chris Lambert RHP Cardinals Boston College20 Trevor Plouffe SS Twins Crespi HS, Northridge, CAPICK PLAYER POS TEAM SCHOOL21 Greg Golson OF Phillies John Connally HS, Austin22 Glen Perkins LHP Twins Minnesota23 Philip Hughes RHP Yankees Foothill HS, Santa Ana, CA24 Landon Powell C Athletics South Carolina25 Kyle Waldrop RHP Twins Farragut HS (Tenn.)26 Richie Robnett OF Athletics Fresno State27 Taylor Tankersley LHP Marlins Alabama28 Blake DeWitt 3B Dodgers Sikeston HS (Missouri)29 Matt Campbell LHP Royals South Carolina30 Eric Hurley RHP Rangers Wolfson HS, JacksonvilleHere are 2002-2004 draft results. These are recent drafts, and most of these guys are in the mid-'20s, and should be at least in the majors by now.I see a hell of a lot more guys that will never contribute than guys who aren't even in the majors. Is the jury still out on some of these guys, sure it is. But I'd say at best you are looking at a 25-30% shot of picking a winner in the first round. I'd rather have two guys that can play right now...+ev imo.

 

[shadyridr]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

 

[[icon]]

With the Yankees starting pitching in shambles, this would be tremendous.

Shambles?Wang PettitteHughesJobaKennedyMussinaPut Santana at the top of that and they're stacked.Red Sox fans have to be the most delusional people on the planet. Please, any of you, explain to me how ANY and EVERY scenario makes Theo a genius and the Yankees fools. It's amazing how you can spin anything into "Theos a genius and the Yankees suck", absolutely amazing.But I do admire your optimism.

Well, looks like Pettitte is coming back, so I will retract the shambles statement. Without Pettitte though they were at WangMussina3 rookies yet to pitch a full seasonCan't say I would be too ecstatic to start a season like that. I don't see how that is delusional...With Pettitte in the mix now they are looking a lot better. Well-timed card by the Yankees, takes the pressure off them somewhat in these negotiations.

Agreed 100% with Wilked here. Pettite "makes it right" but any Yankee fan confident going into the season with the following needed to have their head examined:Wang (solid but not dominant #1 starter) Mussina (traditional workhorse who's reaching the end and struggled in long stretches last year)Hughes (tremendous potential but 5-3 - 72IP - 4.50 ERA - 1.29 WHIP - 2.0 K/BB - .700 OPS Against..etc)Joba (Dominant as setup man but has never pitched more than 2+ IP in the Majors)Kennedy (Significant potential but 19IP in MLB w sub 2 K/BB and high FB rate)I fully expect those kids to be solid starters one day... but to expect all 3 to step up and pitch at a ML level for a full season would have been overkill for all but the biggest homers. Pettite coming back is huge for the yanks... landing Santana would elevate them to one of the best rotations in baseball.

 

[Funkley]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

It's a game they play at the mid point for the league's top performers.

 

[TLEF316]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

Seriously. He's good, but come on.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Just seems silly to evaluate team's lineups or rotations before the winter meetings have even started...

 

[Alias]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

It's a game they play at the mid point for the league's top performers.

 

[ooofffaaa]

MLB First Round Draft Picks - 2004PICK PLAYER POS TEAM SCHOOL3 Philip Humber RHP Mets Rice23 Philip Hughes RHP Yankees Foothill HS, Santa Ana, CA

Reason #1 the Mets have no shot at acquiring a #1 SP right now.

 

[Sammy3469]

I see a hell of a lot more guys that will never contribute than guys who aren't even in the majors. Is the jury still out on some of these guys, sure it is. But I'd say at best you are looking at a 25-30% shot of picking a winner in the first round. I'd rather have two guys that can play right now...+ev imo.

I think your percentage is way off....about half those guys should contribute at some point and there's a pretty big subset of them that will end up being above average ML and a smaller subset that will be superstars.. More importantly though is that a lot of the top prospects come out of that group. You have Upton, Kazmir, Fielder, Hughes, Hamels, Loney, Cain, Francouer, Swisher, Francis, Verlander, etc. Even considering Hughes is the top prospect, you're not gaining that much besides time versus the two picks especially with an extra year of Johan thrown in. Like I said it basically boils down to how much you like Melky. Personally I think he's a 4th OF which makes his value pretty pedestrian, but I could see how a team/scout would differ.

 

[[icon]]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

It's possible but not likely. However his stats last year spread over a 162 games season are:

98 R - 15 HR - 88 RBI - 44 SB - .353 AVG - .903 OPS

Now factor in that he'll be at the top of the Sox lineup in front of Pedrioa / Ortiz / Ramirez / Lowell and I think it's reasonable to expect:

120R - 15 HR - 85 RBI - 40 SB - .325 - .875 OPS

That's pretty close to all star numbers. I don't see him starting but he COULD get in. particularly with the massive red sox fan support homers.... especially when you factor in his massive range and plus glove in the outfield. He's certainly a top preseason candidate for 2008 ROY as well... but we'll see how that shakes out.

 

[Alias]

MLB First Round Draft Picks - 2004PICK PLAYER POS TEAM SCHOOL3 Philip Humber RHP Mets Rice23 Philip Hughes RHP Yankees Foothill HS, Santa Ana, CA

Reason #1 the Mets have no shot at acquiring a #1 SP right now.

only off by a couple letters

 

[ooofffaaa]

MLB First Round Draft Picks - 2004PICK PLAYER POS TEAM SCHOOL3 Philip Humber RHP Mets Rice23 Philip Hughes RHP Yankees Foothill HS, Santa Ana, CA

Reason #1 the Mets have no shot at acquiring a #1 SP right now.

only off by a couple letters

Yep - they chose the wrong Philip and now it's costing a shot at a #1 SP.

 

[shadyridr]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

It's a game they play at the mid point for the league's top performers.

Yep as well as a game Ellsbury will not be a part of in 2008.Seriously, you're making him sound like the next Grady Sizemore. That aint happening. He's gonna be a very good player though. I think he's got Johnny Damon potential.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I think people are over-projecting Ellsbury's power in 2008...

He hit 10 homers in over 1000 minor league ABs, with a minor league SLG of .426...

He obviously upped that rate considerably in his brief 2007 regular season appearance, with 3 homers in 116 ABs, but I wouldn't necessarily extend that rate out for a seaosn, given his minor league CV

 

[Funkley]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

It's a game they play at the mid point for the league's top performers.

Yep as well as a game Ellsbury will not be a part of in 2008.Seriously, you're making him sound like the next Grady Sizemore. That aint happening. He's gonna be a very good player though. I think he's got Johnny Damon potential.

Christ, stop being so gd damned easy all the time. He is CLEARLY the player the Twins want in these discussions and fills by far the biggest hole, and I like Hughes. If he plays 150 games hitting ahead of Young, Mauer, Cuddyer, Morneau then he could contend for the AS game and I'm not the first person in this thread to say so. Must be 'take everything literal day' in the beisbol forearm. But since when is it so hard to think that a top 20 prospect in the game will contend for an all star game? The point that I was attempting to make and that I think most people understood is that the window to trade for Ellsbury (or Hughes for that matter) is now, not another half season of watching them prove they are for real.

 

[shadyridr]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

It's possible but not likely. However his stats last year spread over a 162 games season are:

98 R - 15 HR - 88 RBI - 44 SB - .353 AVG - .903 OPS

Now factor in that he'll be at the top of the Sox lineup in front of Pedrioa / Ortiz / Ramirez / Lowell and I think it's reasonable to expect:

120R - 15 HR - 85 RBI - 40 SB - .325 - .875 OPS

That's pretty close to all star numbers. I don't see him starting but he COULD get in. particularly with the massive red sox fan support homers.... especially when you factor in his massive range and plus glove in the outfield. He's certainly a top preseason candidate for 2008 ROY as well... but we'll see how that shakes out.

He may not even be a fulltime player

 

[Funkley]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

It's a game they play at the mid point for the league's top performers.

I think he's got Johnny Damon potential.

2 time all star.

 

[[icon]]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

It's a game they play at the mid point for the league's top performers.

Yep as well as a game Ellsbury will not be a part of in 2008.Seriously, you're making him sound like the next Grady Sizemore. That aint happening. He's gonna be a very good player though. I think he's got Johnny Damon potential.

IMHO he projects to be a better player than damon if he matures as expected. He's got more speed, a stronger arm, a better glove, and hits for higher average and comparable power.

 

[[icon]]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

It's possible but not likely. However his stats last year spread over a 162 games season are:

98 R - 15 HR - 88 RBI - 44 SB - .353 AVG - .903 OPS

Now factor in that he'll be at the top of the Sox lineup in front of Pedrioa / Ortiz / Ramirez / Lowell and I think it's reasonable to expect:

120R - 15 HR - 85 RBI - 40 SB - .325 - .875 OPS

That's pretty close to all star numbers. I don't see him starting but he COULD get in. particularly with the massive red sox fan support homers.... especially when you factor in his massive range and plus glove in the outfield. He's certainly a top preseason candidate for 2008 ROY as well... but we'll see how that shakes out.

He may not even be a fulltime player

1) boston are doing everything they can to move crisp in one deal or another. 2) If they started ellsbury over crisp in the world series what the hell makes you think they'd start crisp in the regular season?

 

[shadyridr]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

It's possible but not likely. However his stats last year spread over a 162 games season are:

98 R - 15 HR - 88 RBI - 44 SB - .353 AVG - .903 OPS

Now factor in that he'll be at the top of the Sox lineup in front of Pedrioa / Ortiz / Ramirez / Lowell and I think it's reasonable to expect:

120R - 15 HR - 85 RBI - 40 SB - .325 - .875 OPS

That's pretty close to all star numbers. I don't see him starting but he COULD get in. particularly with the massive red sox fan support homers.... especially when you factor in his massive range and plus glove in the outfield. He's certainly a top preseason candidate for 2008 ROY as well... but we'll see how that shakes out.

He may not even be a fulltime player

1) boston are doing everything they can to move crisp in one deal or another. 2) If they started ellsbury over crisp in the world series what the hell makes you think they'd start crisp in the regular season?

I dont doubt Ellsbury will start more than Crisp but I find it hard to imagine Crisp not getting about 2 starts a week in CF. Crisp is a far better fielder at this point. Those 2 starts a week will add up keeping him out of the AS lineup.

 

[[icon]]

Food for thought for those underestimating Ellsbury.... consider the kid's speed.

He's scored from first base standing up on a bloop single at the AAA level.

He's scored from 2nd base on a passed ball at the Major League level

In the Red Sox farm club he was rated (by Baseball America):

• best prospect in the Sox system

• best hitter for average

• fastest base runner

• best athlete

• best defensive outfielder.

Again.. nothing is guaranteed.. but this kid is special.

 

[Funkley]

Well, let's assume that Lester is out and the framework of a deal is, say, Ellsbury/Lowrie/Bowden.....that's enough for me to move Santana. I think landing your leadoff hitter for the next several years and two nice prospects is enough. Given how good I personally think Ellsbury is and given how huge the organizational hole CF is for the Twins I do the deal while they can. They'll never get Ellsbury in July 2008 as by then he'll be in line for his first all star game.

Oh come on now

It's possible but not likely. However his stats last year spread over a 162 games season are:

98 R - 15 HR - 88 RBI - 44 SB - .353 AVG - .903 OPS

Now factor in that he'll be at the top of the Sox lineup in front of Pedrioa / Ortiz / Ramirez / Lowell and I think it's reasonable to expect:

120R - 15 HR - 85 RBI - 40 SB - .325 - .875 OPS

That's pretty close to all star numbers. I don't see him starting but he COULD get in. particularly with the massive red sox fan support homers.... especially when you factor in his massive range and plus glove in the outfield. He's certainly a top preseason candidate for 2008 ROY as well... but we'll see how that shakes out.

He may not even be a fulltime player

1) boston are doing everything they can to move crisp in one deal or another. 2) If they started ellsbury over crisp in the world series what the hell makes you think they'd start crisp in the regular season?

I dont doubt Ellsbury will start more than Crisp but I find it hard to imagine Crisp not getting about 2 starts a week in CF. Crisp is a far better fielder at this point. Those 2 starts a week will add up keeping him out of the AS lineup.

Crisp is a defensive replacement at best compared to Ellsbury.

 

[Funkley]

Food for thought for those underestimating Ellsbury.... consider the kid's speed.

He's scored from first base standing up on a bloop single at the AAA level.

He's scored from 2nd base on a passed ball at the Major League level

In the Red Sox farm club he was rated (by Baseball America):

• best prospect in the Sox system

• best hitter for average

• fastest base runner

• best athlete

• best defensive outfielder.

Again.. nothing is guaranteed.. but this kid is special.

 

[NY/NJMFDIVER]

I think people are over-projecting Ellsbury's power in 2008...He hit 10 homers in over 1000 minor league ABs, with a minor league SLG of .426...He obviously upped that rate considerably in his brief 2007 regular season appearance, with 3 homers in 116 ABs, but I wouldn't necessarily extend that rate out for a seaosn, given his minor league CV

I hear what you're saying, but he's also a young, slight guy. As his frame finishes maturing, I think he'll settle into 20 HR power. The ballpark is an X-Factor for this, but he's got quick wrists and I think he'll be able to get a few in the seats based on that alone.Rivarly bias aside, he looks like a marvelous young player to me, and I'd love to have him on the Yankees.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I think people are over-projecting Ellsbury's power in 2008...He hit 10 homers in over 1000 minor league ABs, with a minor league SLG of .426...He obviously upped that rate considerably in his brief 2007 regular season appearance, with 3 homers in 116 ABs, but I wouldn't necessarily extend that rate out for a seaosn, given his minor league CV

I hear what you're saying, but he's also a young, slight guy. As his frame finishes maturing, I think he'll settle into 20 HR power. The ballpark is an X-Factor for this, but he's got quick wrists and I think he'll be able to get a few in the seats based on that alone.Rivarly bias aside, he looks like a marvelous young player to me, and I'd love to have him on the Yankees.

I think he's a very good prospect, and showed a lot in late 07 and the playoffs...I was just speaking to the 2008 power projections I saw thrown around here...There's a big difference between potentially maturing into a 20 homer guy down the road and projecting nearly that many in his first full major league season...

 

[[icon]]

I hear what you're saying, but he's also a young, slight guy. As his frame finishes maturing, I think he'll settle into 20 HR power. The ballpark is an X-Factor for this, but he's got quick wrists and I think he'll be able to get a few in the seats based on that alone.

Exactly Damon didn't break 10HRs until his 4th season (18HR @ 24 Years old) Damon didn't break 20HRs until his 10th season (20HR @ 30 Years old)Interesting Splits on Jacoby as wellVS. LEFT: .346 / .802RIGHT: .356 / .931 Pretty even splits there with moderately better power numbers against righties.

 

[[icon]]

I think people are over-projecting Ellsbury's power in 2008...He hit 10 homers in over 1000 minor league ABs, with a minor league SLG of .426...He obviously upped that rate considerably in his brief 2007 regular season appearance, with 3 homers in 116 ABs, but I wouldn't necessarily extend that rate out for a seaosn, given his minor league CV

I hear what you're saying, but he's also a young, slight guy. As his frame finishes maturing, I think he'll settle into 20 HR power. The ballpark is an X-Factor for this, but he's got quick wrists and I think he'll be able to get a few in the seats based on that alone.Rivarly bias aside, he looks like a marvelous young player to me, and I'd love to have him on the Yankees.

I think he's a very good prospect, and showed a lot in late 07 and the playoffs...I was just speaking to the 2008 power projections I saw thrown around here...There's a big difference between potentially maturing into a 20 homer guy down the road and projecting nearly that many in his first full major league season...

Valid point.. my 14HR projection is likely a bit high... I don't think 10 is out of the question, however. That said, boston doesn't really need him to be a power guy with the 4 guys that are behind him.

 

[shadyridr]

I dont think anyone is underestimating Jacoby. I just thought the 2008 AS game inclusion was a bit ridiculous.

 

[Funkley]

I dont think anyone is underestimating Jacoby. I just thought the 2008 AS game inclusion was a bit ridiculous.

They give out rookie of the year awards for a reason. Ususally, ROY plays himself into AS consideration. Generally, the best rookies receive ample playing time and often are in good lineups. Connecting the dots isn't that hard here. You say he compares favorably to Johnny Damon one minute but all star is ridiculous the next. Make up your mind.

 

[shadyridr]

I dont think anyone is underestimating Jacoby. I just thought the 2008 AS game inclusion was a bit ridiculous.

They give out rookie of the year awards for a reason. Ususally, ROY plays himself into AS consideration. Generally, the best rookies receive ample playing time and often are in good lineups. Connecting the dots isn't that hard here. You say he compares favorably to Johnny Damon one minute but all star is ridiculous the next. Make up your mind.

Did Damon make the AS Game in his rookie year?

 

[Funkley]

I dont think anyone is underestimating Jacoby. I just thought the 2008 AS game inclusion was a bit ridiculous.

They give out rookie of the year awards for a reason. Ususally, ROY plays himself into AS consideration. Generally, the best rookies receive ample playing time and often are in good lineups. Connecting the dots isn't that hard here. You say he compares favorably to Johnny Damon one minute but all star is ridiculous the next. Make up your mind.

Did Damon make the AS Game in his rookie year?

47 games and in a bad lineup. Didn't meet the criteria. Ellsbury figures to get 500 ab's in a good lineup.

 

[Workhorse]

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/

Now, back to Steinbrenner-gate.

A Twins official this morning confirmed that the club is not pleased with comments made by Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner about trade talks involving Santana.

When asked if he thought the comments constituted tampering, the official replied, “We’re not happy. We’ll deal with this internally.'’

Hank is in WAY over his head.

 

[Kiddnets]

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/

Now, back to Steinbrenner-gate.

A Twins official this morning confirmed that the club is not pleased with comments made by Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner about trade talks involving Santana.

When asked if he thought the comments constituted tampering, the official replied, “We’re not happy. We’ll deal with this internally.'’

Hank is in WAY over his head.

Maybe I missed it but What is tampering about what Hank said? I think he is being smart not allowing Twins to keep the offer in hand for an indefinite timeframe and keep playing them vs the Sox

 

[ooofffaaa]

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/

Now, back to Steinbrenner-gate.

A Twins official this morning confirmed that the club is not pleased with comments made by Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner about trade talks involving Santana.

When asked if he thought the comments constituted tampering, the official replied, “We’re not happy. We’ll deal with this internally.'’

Hank is in WAY over his head.

I like Hankenstein

 

[Alias]

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/

Now, back to Steinbrenner-gate.

A Twins official this morning confirmed that the club is not pleased with comments made by Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner about trade talks involving Santana.

When asked if he thought the comments constituted tampering, the official replied, “We’re not happy. We’ll deal with this internally.'’

Hank is in WAY over his head.

Maybe I missed it but What is tampering about what Hank said? I think he is being smart not allowing Twins to keep the offer in hand for an indefinite timeframe and keep playing them vs the Sox

I still do not understand what part is tampering, here is the full piece from the article:

Now, back to Steinbrenner-gate.

A Twins official this morning confirmed that the club is not pleased with comments made by Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner about trade talks involving Santana.

When asked if he thought the comments constituted tampering, the official replied, “We’re not happy. We’ll deal with this internally.'’

Steinbrenner made his comments on Sunday while threatening to pull out of talks with the Twins over the two-time Cy Young award winner.

While charging that the Twins were playing his team against the Red Sox in the Santana sweepstakes, he said the following:

“Because as much as I want Santana, and you can make that clear — for his sake, to know that I do want him — but the fact is that I’m not going to play the game,'’ Steinbrenner said.

It’s unsure if the Twins will pursue tampering charges (or what the penalties are) but it’s definitely added even more spice to the Twins attempts to trade Santana - as if more was needed.

 

[oneohh]

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/

Now, back to Steinbrenner-gate.

A Twins official this morning confirmed that the club is not pleased with comments made by Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner about trade talks involving Santana.

When asked if he thought the comments constituted tampering, the official replied, “We’re not happy. We’ll deal with this internally.'’

Hank is in WAY over his head.

Maybe I missed it but What is tampering about what Hank said? I think he is being smart not allowing Twins to keep the offer in hand for an indefinite timeframe and keep playing them vs the Sox

What he is doing obviously makes good business sense, but it is tampering according to MLB. Apparently it is illegal to mention names during trade negotiations. Does anyone know what kind of punishment there is for tampering?

 

[Tremendous Upside]

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/

Now, back to Steinbrenner-gate.

A Twins official this morning confirmed that the club is not pleased with comments made by Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner about trade talks involving Santana.

When asked if he thought the comments constituted tampering, the official replied, “We’re not happy. We’ll deal with this internally.'’

Hank is in WAY over his head.

Maybe I missed it but What is tampering about what Hank said? I think he is being smart not allowing Twins to keep the offer in hand for an indefinite timeframe and keep playing them vs the Sox

I still do not understand what part is tampering, here is the full piece from the article:

Now, back to Steinbrenner-gate.

A Twins official this morning confirmed that the club is not pleased with comments made by Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner about trade talks involving Santana.

When asked if he thought the comments constituted tampering, the official replied, “We’re not happy. We’ll deal with this internally.'’

Steinbrenner made his comments on Sunday while threatening to pull out of talks with the Twins over the two-time Cy Young award winner.

While charging that the Twins were playing his team against the Red Sox in the Santana sweepstakes, he said the following:

“Because as much as I want Santana, and you can make that clear — for his sake, to know that I do want him — but the fact is that I’m not going to play the game,'’ Steinbrenner said.

It’s unsure if the Twins will pursue tampering charges (or what the penalties are) but it’s definitely added even more spice to the Twins attempts to trade Santana - as if more was needed.

Probably the “Because as much as I want Santana, and you can make that clear — for his sake, to know that I do want him" part...Santana is currently under contract, so I don't think you can specifically mention interest in him...

 

[Funkley]

http://www.startribune.com/blogs/neal/

Now, back to Steinbrenner-gate.

A Twins official this morning confirmed that the club is not pleased with comments made by Yankees senior vice president Hank Steinbrenner about trade talks involving Santana.

When asked if he thought the comments constituted tampering, the official replied, “We’re not happy. We’ll deal with this internally.'’

Hank is in WAY over his head.

Maybe I missed it but What is tampering about what Hank said? I think he is being smart not allowing Twins to keep the offer in hand for an indefinite timeframe and keep playing them vs the Sox

He really shouldn't be talking about specific players on someone else's team. Front office's have guys for this that leak info to Gammons/Olney/Rosenthal/etc but it really shouldn't come directly from the mouth to the microphone like the Steinbrenner's do.

 

[_4_]

Twins may hold onto Santana....as of 10 minutes ago:

1:08 p.m. ET • Buster Olney is hearing whispers that the Twins might decide to hold onto Johan Santana. With a healthy Francisco Liriano alongside Santana in the rotation, that would be a fearsome 1-2 punch. If the Twins do some big things in '08, they could find a way to re-sign Santana.

 

[Alias]

It is starting to sound like the NY Camp is giving themself an out. Pettite is now back which lessens the 'need' of landing Santana for the Yanks. They gave their ultimatum of Hughes+Melky and it is becoming clear that Kennedy will not also be included in that package, the Yanks have given their best offer and pinned the Twins to a deadline. If the Twins don't accept then the Yanks can say we tried but we feel going into '08 with Pettite + Hughes + Kennedy, etc... will get the job done for us.

You know Theo is still working all the angles and I wouldn't be surprised if Boston comes out on top. If the Twins don't pull the trigger today and the Yanks stick to their guns then the price can only go down for Santana and either the Red Sox have a shot at getting him at a slight discount (i.e. not the demands being asked currently of 2 out of 3 of Lester, Clay, Ellsbury) or the Twins make no deal with anyone and keep him as their starter for '08 which I am ok with.

 

[Funkley]

Twins may hold onto Santana....as of 10 minutes ago:

1:08 p.m. ET • Buster Olney is hearing whispers that the Twins might decide to hold onto Johan Santana. With a healthy Francisco Liriano alongside Santana in the rotation, that would be a fearsome 1-2 punch. If the Twins do some big things in '08, they could find a way to re-sign Santana.

Wonderful....lose him for nothing too.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

Twins may hold onto Santana....as of 10 minutes ago:

1:08 p.m. ET • Buster Olney is hearing whispers that the Twins might decide to hold onto Johan Santana. With a healthy Francisco Liriano alongside Santana in the rotation, that would be a fearsome 1-2 punch. If the Twins do some big things in '08, they could find a way to re-sign Santana.

@ the ESPN CYA machine...I think by now they have covered every possible base, so they can say "As exclusively reported by ESPN earlier this week..."

 

[Liquid Tension]

I have a feeling if both the Sox and Yankees deals stay as they are currently constructed, that he'll stay a Twin. Quite frankly Hughes, Cabrera, and a third tier prospect isn't enough for the best pitcher in baseball when you can get two 1st round picks the following year.

The deals are very good when you consider the dollars. If you are Minnesota you get all the players and you get roughly 10 mil to play with as well.

 

[Liquid Tension]

Red Sox fans have to be the most delusional people on the planet. Please, any of you, explain to me how ANY and EVERY scenario makes Theo a genius and the Yankees fools. It's amazing how you can spin anything into "Theos a genius and the Yankees suck", absolutely amazing.

While your over-dramatization is comical, Do we really need to look at the results in the last 4-5 years since Theo has been GM? Theo was hired before the 2003 season2003 - ALCS2004 -World Series Title2005 - ALDS(Theo take hiatus for most of offseason)2006 - Didn't make playoffs2007 - World Series TitleSo since taking the helm before the 2003 season Theo has led the Sox to the playoffs every year that he had the reins for the offseason... including 2 World Series titles. Not too shabby for a delusional bunch of also-rans.

Disgraceful to not make the playoffs with that payroll!

 

[Sammy3469]

I have a feeling if both the Sox and Yankees deals stay as they are currently constructed, that he'll stay a Twin. Quite frankly Hughes, Cabrera, and a third tier prospect isn't enough for the best pitcher in baseball when you can get two 1st round picks the following year.

The deals are very good when you consider the dollars. If you are Minnesota you get all the players and you get roughly 10 mil to play with as well.

except 13 million on Santana is probably the best way you can spend that 13 million given today's FA market.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

I have a feeling if both the Sox and Yankees deals stay as they are currently constructed, that he'll stay a Twin. Quite frankly Hughes, Cabrera, and a third tier prospect isn't enough for the best pitcher in baseball when you can get two 1st round picks the following year.

The deals are very good when you consider the dollars. If you are Minnesota you get all the players and you get roughly 10 mil to play with as well.

except 13 million on Santana is probably the best way you can spend that 13 million given today's FA market.

They should take that $$ and turn around and trade for Haren...Net D Young, Haren and 1/2 of the players from the Santana trade for Santana and Garza

 

[Liquid Tension]

It is fantastic news that Pettitte is returning. In my blog I said that it would be shocking if Pettitte posted a sub 4 ERA, but he almost did it. While he still allows too many hits, he pitched better last year for the Yankees then any of his final years with them. He used both sides of the plate much more effectively. Pettitte gives them a very solid starter.

 

[pigskin pimp]

Twins may hold onto Santana....as of 10 minutes ago:

1:08 p.m. ET • Buster Olney is hearing whispers that the Twins might decide to hold onto Johan Santana. With a healthy Francisco Liriano alongside Santana in the rotation, that would be a fearsome 1-2 punch. If the Twins do some big things in '08, they could find a way to re-sign Santana.

Wonderful....lose him for nothing too.

Or they could pony up the money and sign him. Give him the two extra years at 20M a piece and have an ace on your staff for 6 years.You know that once he signs this big contract, in 2009, the Yankees will just throw 30M a year at CC or another pitcher.I remember when Puckett became the first 3M a year player, that became a cheap contract the very next year.

 

[Liquid Tension]

BTW, this ultimatum stuff and airing the laundry in public will not win you any friends. GM's have egos and if they feel bullied they will look the other way. Hank should just shut up and talk to the GM and let him know that the Yanks may remove their offer as they have to move on. Maybe say something like you asked for this and we gave it to you, let's get this done or we will have to move on as we don't play games?

I just don't like seeing that stuff in public, Hank needs to be less "friendly" with the media as he will scare potential players away (and others)

BTW, I don't really have any problem with anything that he said, but the timing of making it public isn't beneficial IMO.

 

[shadyridr]

Hank is annoying me