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The Jon Baldwin Hype Train (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter EBF
- Start date
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
Physically, he's a monster. If he learns to be a professional the sky is the limit. Absent the character questions, he'd have been right there a hair behind Green and Jones IMO as a prospect last year.
Cipherchris
Footballguy
6"4 doesnt mean much. Too many tall WR failed. We can only hope he's not the next Malcolm Kelly or Ramses Barden
Dismattle
Footballguy
http://www.610sports.com/ (new link) http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap2000000051351/article/dwayne-bowe-signs-franchise-tender-returns-to-chiefs?module=HP11_headline_stackBut in reguards to Cecil not touching Baldwin (last yr), I would imagine it was as a result of reports about issues getting off the line (press) in camp. It sounded like something Coachs should be be able to fix at some point..
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EBF
Footballguy
Neither one of those guys were first round picks. Malcolm Kelly ran slow 40 times and had chronic knee problems. He also wasn't as strong as Baldwin. Baldwin moves a lot better than Barden. He had more receiving yards in his rookie season than Barden has had in his entire three year NFL career, so I think that's a pretty weak comparison.
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Beerguzzler
Footballguy
annnnnnd the train comes to a screeching halt till next year when hopefully Bowe signs elsewhere. 
Longtucky Lemmings
Footballguy
OK, so now Bowe has signed his tender and will likely report to camp soon....given that, and given the reports on Baldwin the past few weeks, what is his likely floor and celing?
45/700/3 - Floor? (Assuming he ends up as the legitimate WR2)
70/1000/6 - Ceiling?
45/700/3 - Floor? (Assuming he ends up as the legitimate WR2)
70/1000/6 - Ceiling?
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I posted this in the Jeffery thread, but wanted to make sure EBF noticed it.Why are you so low on Jeffery and so high on Baldwin? They're practically the same player.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
I think alot of his value is going to be based on the health of Meoki. Bowe is clearly Cassel's #1 target in the red zone ever since they paired up, so I don't expect that to change. Meoki could conceivably be his 2nd read if he's really fully recovered. If that's the case, I don't even see Baldwin as a top 40 WR. This offense is going to be very, very, very run heavy. I don't think it will be able to reliably sustain more than 1-2 targets and really I would be wary of having any receiver from this team aside from Bowe.
Dynasty wise, it's a whole other discussion. (crosses fingers that Bowe goes elsewhere)
Dynasty wise, it's a whole other discussion. (crosses fingers that Bowe goes elsewhere)
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death of the cool
Footballguy
Baldwin is defiantly a player I would like to take a flier on late in the draft as long as I have a consistent 3 or 4 WR's locked up.
wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=650642Weren't you just the one scolding people for stuff like this? keep your personal vendetta's out of here.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Trying to find out EBF's differences between Baldwin and Jeffery isn't topic based
EBF
Footballguy
They aren't that similar at all. Just because they are both tall, heavy, and good winning jump balls doesn't make them the same player.Overall, Baldwin is a lot more athletic. He runs and cuts a lot better. That's one of the things I like about his game. Not only is he a big target, but he's a big target who runs and moves as well as a smaller receiver. He is not going to break a lot of ankles in the NFL, but there is no wasted motion in his stride or his cuts. Smooth is the word I would use. It's something that's hard to quantify, but easy to see when you actually watch the players on the field. That is also why I like Randle more than Jeffery, although Randle doesn't have the athletic gifts that Baldwin possesses. Baldwin is a bigger, more athletic version of Jeffery. And first round picks have a much higher success rate than second round picks. If the NFL scouts felt Jeffery was practically the same player as Baldwin, he wouldn't have fallen as far as he did.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
Hmmm interesting.When I did my initial scouting on Jeffery I saw a lot of Jon Baldwin in his game.Similarities:-Tall/thick builds-Good to great hands-Win at jump balls-Struggle with separation, better at using body-Neither is a great YAC player-Both had poor QB play as juniors
EBF
Footballguy
Bowe is a good player, but I think Baldwin has the potential to be just as good, if not better. That's why I don't necessarily think Bowe's presence means Baldwin can't be productive. Bowe is better at getting yards after the catch, but Baldwin is bigger and better at the jump ball. I think Baldwin actually has the best red zone potential of the two since he's 6'4" and change with a 42" vertical leap. Even if Bowe is in the lineup, I could see it being more of an event split than people expect.
Cawdor
Footballguy
Since Bowe hasn't been in camp, I can't say for sure what will happen when he returns to the team. From my 2 times watching camp in person, be prepared for Cassel to look Baldwin's way this year especially in the red zone. He is built to bring down the jump ball and has been doing just that in camp. It really comes down to how many games they need to play catch up and how aggressive Daboll will be because there are a lot of options on offense and its real easy to run, screen, and throw short passes.
squistion
Footballguy
Hey, Benson, you should know by now that the discussion is over when EBF throws out his trump card, that the scouts obviously know best because Baldwin was taken in the 1st round, while Jeffery was taken in the 2nd round. Yes, statistically, the draft round position of a player is one of the best indicators of success, as EBF has told us ad nauseam (although you may have noticed that when it is a player EBF doesn't like, such as Jake Locker, then being even a high 1st round draft round pick is irrelevant, but I digress). No will argue against that the proposition that a player taken in the 1st round statistically has a greater likelihood of success than a player taken in the 2nd round. But the bottom line is when one is making that argument, all they are just talking about is simply probabilities.
Sure, probabilities are important in talking about players in general, but they don't mean as much when you are looking at and comparing one or two individual players. At that point the probability of success or failure based on draft position is just another factor to consider, not the holy grail that some here make it out to be.
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wiscstlatlmia
Footballguy
But, he is arguing his point...its his opinion.it doesn't mean hes saying hes right... its just what he believes.
Hes not saying you have to listen and he is almighty, hes just saying that's what he believes and that's why he believes it.
If you don't agree, then disagree, and make your points and then we will find out when Baldwin actually hits the field. But don't get angry when he simply doesn't agree with you and start claiming hes arrogant or something...its what he believes.
If he is wrong, its ok, he has a right to be.
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EBF
Footballguy
If you are going to commit my opinions to memory and endlessly stalk my posts in hopes of delivering these feeble little barbs, you could at least get it right.I don't think I've ever said that draft position and/or combine numbers are everything. They are an important consideration, but not gospel by any means. I doubt I've ever argued otherwise, and if you actually read my response to Benson, I gave multiple reasons for why I prefer Baldwin. In my view Baldwin is a better version of the same player. Draft position. Combine numbers. Eyeball test. He wins in all of those categories for me. Jeffery had better college production, but that's enough to tip the scales.
benson_will_lead_the_way
Footballguy
I'm trying to figure out where my vendetta is in my post
King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Two games...1 catch....1 fumble. He is doing a good job of maintaining his sleeper status.
Twenty-Four Eighty-Four
Footballguy
I'm giving him up.
JPeso
Footballguy
I'm sorry but I don't see them as similar players. I value them similarly, and sure, both are good red zone threats. Jeffery is more dangerous after the catch. I think that will come to light this year if they can find ways to get him the ball in space. Jeffery also has a better set of hands (I would not consider Baldwin having "good to great hands"). Jeffery isn't great off the line but has a nice buildup speed a la Nicks. Baldwin is more athletic and needs to be more physical off the line, but speed isn't the issue. Jeffery uses his body much better than Baldwin does. In fact, Baldwin still hasn't learned how to truly use his size to his advantage - it needs to happen soon. While I'm fine comparing some of the aspects of these player's game, I think it's lazy to suggest they are practically the same player. There are material differences in the way they played in college (which you do a lot of referencing to in most of your posts) and the way they each will have to play in the NFL to succeed. Putting poor QB play as a Junior as a similarity when comparing a player is quite confusing to me as well.
KellysHeroes
Footballguy
The Baldwin owner tried selling him to me for Ridley; maybe in May but not this pre-season.
HurryUpSundays
Footballguy
Was this guy at KCs camp? Or is this his own speculation? I'm trying to decide if I want to package Baldwin or Cobb to upgrade at RB. Everything you read about Baldwin seems fantastic, then there's the box scores.
Dismattle
Footballguy
HurryUp Why didnt you just post your thoughts on the above players (Baldwin, Cobb) imo Cobb can be viewed as Mr Excitement (but that ball will still be shared, next yr)
In some respects (best case scenario to a degree) blank, but Id like to know your input.
Do you score w/ rtn yrds? Do you want avg play or like to see big points on occasion. Its possible that Bowe stays, and Baldwin becomes the 1b (1A) option. Theres a chance Jennings signs an extention, which almost dictates, Cobb only has shot at slot (still could be very productive)
Overall theres a chance, both players have quite a healthy yr. Cobb may have rtns, slot work, and possibly used in the backfield. Bowe could really open the field for Baldwin (guy Matt has been throwin too durin OTA's etc.)
I think your best bet is to wait for one of the guru's to answer, but it would help knowing your thoughts. Obviously (to me) Cobb has more value on paper, But Baldwin could be a one man show, as soon as next yr.
The best answer, I can provide, would be waiting till mid-Season, and attempt to judge which WR has the best chance to finish w at least 750 yds (recieving)for the Season.
Cobbs value on paper, meaning hype (word of mouth) The note on 750 yds is because imo most WR's that perform well, hit 750 yds within first two yrs of Pro ball. (not fulproof logic because of injury etc.) btw I believe JohnAdams nailed things with his post "If I have him, I want a real producer in exchange based on his tremendous potential, but if Im targeting him, I wouldn't be willing to pay the asking price."
p.s. I believe I really hit on A. Brown last season, might be pushn my luck to expect hitting on both Cobb, n Baldwin (but their both on my team, not really available for trade)
In some respects (best case scenario to a degree) blank, but Id like to know your input.
Do you score w/ rtn yrds? Do you want avg play or like to see big points on occasion. Its possible that Bowe stays, and Baldwin becomes the 1b (1A) option. Theres a chance Jennings signs an extention, which almost dictates, Cobb only has shot at slot (still could be very productive)
Overall theres a chance, both players have quite a healthy yr. Cobb may have rtns, slot work, and possibly used in the backfield. Bowe could really open the field for Baldwin (guy Matt has been throwin too durin OTA's etc.)
I think your best bet is to wait for one of the guru's to answer, but it would help knowing your thoughts. Obviously (to me) Cobb has more value on paper, But Baldwin could be a one man show, as soon as next yr.
The best answer, I can provide, would be waiting till mid-Season, and attempt to judge which WR has the best chance to finish w at least 750 yds (recieving)for the Season.
Cobbs value on paper, meaning hype (word of mouth) The note on 750 yds is because imo most WR's that perform well, hit 750 yds within first two yrs of Pro ball. (not fulproof logic because of injury etc.) btw I believe JohnAdams nailed things with his post "If I have him, I want a real producer in exchange based on his tremendous potential, but if Im targeting him, I wouldn't be willing to pay the asking price."
p.s. I believe I really hit on A. Brown last season, might be pushn my luck to expect hitting on both Cobb, n Baldwin (but their both on my team, not really available for trade)
cr8f
Footballguy
They used him as a possession receiver mostly. They are hiding his true value.
I drafted him ad Cobb in my dynasty rookie draft last year and still have faith.
EBF
Footballguy
That is a close one for me. Ridley probably has more immediate value, but long term I think Baldwin is the better talent.
Mario Kart
Footballguy
No, trade him for anything.
FavreAndAwayAnIdiot
Footballguy
Yeah the first week or two is always odd. That said, I didn't watch the game. Was he A) not getting open B) not getting passes as part of the gameplan or C) dropping everything thrown his way?
jurb26
Footballguy
I didn't watch all of the game but it just seemed he never got on the field. It's hard to find a silver lining when KC was trailing almost all game long and still didn't factor into the game plan or see much field time. It seems KC likes several options more than Baldwin still.
It doesn't make much sense, as he was one of the stars of camp and everyone was talking about how well he was playing. The problem is that Bowe came back and McCluster is turning into a big part of the passing game. It's just one game, but a lot of mouths to feed and Cassel is mediocre.
Beerguzzler
Footballguy
Called it. No value this year barring injury.
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SaintsInDome2006
Footballguy
(I am not, repeat not, on a train).
However.... Jon Baldwin did get 6 targets, 3 receptions, and 62 yards (no TD) in last week's game. And he gets the Saints this week on a nice Dome track and our rook 6th round CB (White) who is making every QB & WR's numbers light up.
McCluster cannot be the end all, be all of Crennel's Plan B for expanding the offense beyond Bowe and Charles.
Wonder what his snap count is...
However.... Jon Baldwin did get 6 targets, 3 receptions, and 62 yards (no TD) in last week's game. And he gets the Saints this week on a nice Dome track and our rook 6th round CB (White) who is making every QB & WR's numbers light up.
McCluster cannot be the end all, be all of Crennel's Plan B for expanding the offense beyond Bowe and Charles.
Wonder what his snap count is...
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SameSongNDance
Footballguy
I believe it went from 22 to 39 (52%) last week. Since I'm in an absolute pinch, I may actually have to start him this week. The match-up is absolutely premiere and if he sees the same bump in snaps (32% to 52%), maybe he can be on the field for around 70% of the snaps this time?Choo-choo?
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King of the Jungle
Footballguy
Outside of the obvious factors (team, QB) can anyone explain why this guy is consistently disappointing week after week? Is he not on the field? Is his route running so atrocious that the QB cannot look his way? I paid a future 1st for this turd and am already thinking about cutting bait...
Any feedback is appreciated.
Any feedback is appreciated.
EBF
Footballguy
Probably a combination of all those factors. After watching him more closely this year I was pretty disappointed with his route running. He is slow off the line and runs kind of awkwardly sometimes. He doesn't seem like a guy who will consistently get great separation at this level. I have actually unloaded him in a couple leagues, so I am kind of off the train at this point.
Having said that, he's got the tools to be one of the best jump ball WRs in the NFL. He's tall, strong, jumps well, and can make difficult catches with a defender draped on him. He is absolutely great when the ball is in the air. The problem is that they never give him the opportunity to make those plays. If Bowe leaves and his targets rise, I still think he's capable of doing something.
Having said that, he's got the tools to be one of the best jump ball WRs in the NFL. He's tall, strong, jumps well, and can make difficult catches with a defender draped on him. He is absolutely great when the ball is in the air. The problem is that they never give him the opportunity to make those plays. If Bowe leaves and his targets rise, I still think he's capable of doing something.
jurb26
Footballguy
Baldwin is the anti-AJ Green of WRs. AJ makes everything about the postion look easier than it really is. Baldwin makes everything about it more difficult than it needs to be. Even his best trait, jump balls, are bad. He tracks the ball poorly in the air, puts his body in horrible position for the catch and thus tries to make extremely acrobatic catches (with one hand or stretching, ect) when he never should have had too.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
KC could be really good with a franchise QB....Baldwin included.
Terpman22
Footballguy
Ultimate buy low right now. Dude is still only in his 2nd year and barely played at all next year. Bowe will be gone after this season and KC should get a QB better than Cassel in the draft. Prob won't do too much this year to have a significant impact, but he is growing, albeit, slowly.
