The Kevin Walter Trend (1 Viewer)

[Downontheupside]

Kevin Walter has had one of the most interesting and frustrating fantasy football seasons since I could remember. He's having a solid year with 49 receptions 700 yards and 7 TDS, but he is so inconsistent. Every good game he's had he's followed up with a bad or below average one. In a ppr, league he's stats look like this each week:

13,5,27,5,13,5,24,8,18,10,22,5...

You would think it's a coincidence but he's been doing it all season, following a stinker or a below average preformance with a good or great preformance. His trend would indicate he's due for a good game. I'm starting him over Braylon Edwards which I think is a no brainer.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

traded him after week 3 for a number 2 pick in next years draft. pain in the ### dealing with that roller coaster. the pick will be 2.07-2.12, he made the playoffs as did i. so i will have a nice batch of picks between 10 & 24.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

traded him after week 3 for a number 2 pick in next years draft. pain in the ### dealing with that roller coaster. the pick will be 2.07-2.12, he made the playoffs as did i. so i will have a nice batch of picks between 10 & 24.

I look forward to further updates from you and can't wait to find out how you use those picks. To the OP, Walter has had 4 stinkers, but a lot of WRs have had 2-3. He's slightly more inconsistent than most WRs with his overall numbers, sure, but he's definitely a play over Braylon.

 

[I Am Rick James]

Yeah, he is inconsistent, but that's what you get from a #3. If he put up 15-20 points every week, he would be AJ.

Guess that means he's getting AJ's leftovers

 

[Anon]

and even more

Going back to last year .. starting Week 11 .. 3.6, 12.5, 1.1, 10.7, 5.3, 12.9, 0 then on to this season, 10.1, 1.8, 19.6, 3.6, 9.8, 3.4, 19.0, 4.7, 14.5, 7.9, 15.3, 3.8

Note: AJ came back from injury and began playing again week 11 last year.

 

[Topes]

I'm a Walter backer (though I traded him away in my dynasty league prior to the season for a pick which I then traded in a package which included another player for whom I traded for a pick which netted me Tashard Choice and a pick in next year's draft, and I'll be sure to keep everybody posted on how that turns out; in my auction/keeper league I passed on him at the end of the auction for Kevin Curtis because Curtis could slot on IR for a while and had a $1 keepr value, and I kind of regret that, but will be sure to let everybody know how it works out), so this may seem a little jaded...

Kevin Walter's inconsistency is overstated and exaggerated.

He's only a tad more inconsistent than your typical WR.

In the fantasy world at large (though perhaps not on this board), he is an underrated player.

His underrated factor eclipses his inconsistency factor, IMO.

I don't know what he'll do this week.

But starting him over Edwards? No brainer.

 

[Anon]

I'm a Walter backer (though I traded him away in my dynasty league prior to the season for a pick which I then traded in a package which included another player for whom I traded for a pick which netted me Tashard Choice and a pick in next year's draft, and I'll be sure to keep everybody posted on how that turns out; in my auction/keeper league I passed on him at the end of the auction for Kevin Curtis because Curtis could slot on IR for a while and had a $1 keepr value, and I kind of regret that, but will be sure to let everybody know how it works out), so this may seem a little jaded...

Walter is a WR that currently has 700 yards and 7 TDs over 13 games. His average is ~60 yards and ~.5 TD's per game. It is the TD's every other game that makes him appear inconsistent. I contend that most WR with approximately the same stats, though it won't be every other game, you will see similar numbers of good games vs. bad games. Had you been able to tell me last year to play Kevin Walter every other game, that would be gold. Unfortunately this week his chances of scoring a TD are ~50%. That's not bad, and he actually is a very good WR3.

 

[Buffaloes]

Kevin Walter has had one of the most interesting and frustrating fantasy football seasons since I could remember. He's having a solid year with 49 receptions 700 yards and 7 TDS, but he is so inconsistent. Every good game he's had he's followed up with a bad or below average one. In a ppr, league he's stats look like this each week:13,5,27,5,13,5,24,8,18,10,22,5...You would think it's a coincidence but he's been doing it all season, following a stinker or a below average preformance with a good or great preformance. His trend would indicate he's due for a good game. I'm starting him over Braylon Edwards which I think is a no brainer.

He's the every other week guy. I guess this would be the week to start him.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

There is no reason to believe that this is a trend. The aberration will come to a halt some week. Note that you are counting weeks with 8 and 10 points as "bad", because it conveniently helps you create this mystical "trend".

 

[PosterNutBag]

I don't think this is a trend and don't see it continuing over weeks 14-16 as Walter faces some tough pass defenses.

His next 3 games are against the following pass defenses (rankings in parentheses from my league's MFL website and are how these teams rank for points allow to WRs for weeks 1-13 ... 1 is the best and 32 is the worst against WRs):

14: @ GB (#4)

15: vs TEN (#2)

16: @ OAK (#6)

For this reason, I realized I would never start him as my WR#3 the rest of the season and decided to cut him this week to use that roster spot for another position for my fantasy playoffs.

 

[shred]

I've noticed this early-on and have been playing this trend. I don't know if it's coincidentally or if his coaches remember to get him involved after a quite week.

 

[Topes]

I don't think this is a trend

I'd tend to agree. The trend theory is contingent on seeing scores of 8 & 10 as down weeks.

Heck, scoring 5 isn't even that bad, if he's your WR3.

Many would point to the fact that he's failed to score fewer than 5 points in any week as an indicator of consistently acceptable production.

13,5,27,5,13,5,24,8,18,10,22,5...

 

[Anon]

well, maybe there is something to this ...

Last Play: 1-10-HOU 42(13:30) M.Schaub pass deep left to K.Walter for 58 yards, TOUCHDOWN [A.Kampman].

 

[coolnerd]

I guess the "trend" continue today with a very nice 58 yard TD on the game's first drive

 

[Markus P Dub]

jezzz evey other week with this guy....

 

[Buffaloes]

Kevin Walter has had one of the most interesting and frustrating fantasy football seasons since I could remember. He's having a solid year with 49 receptions 700 yards and 7 TDS, but he is so inconsistent. Every good game he's had he's followed up with a bad or below average one. In a ppr, league he's stats look like this each week:13,5,27,5,13,5,24,8,18,10,22,5...You would think it's a coincidence but he's been doing it all season, following a stinker or a below average preformance with a good or great preformance. His trend would indicate he's due for a good game. I'm starting him over Braylon Edwards which I think is a no brainer.

He's the every other week guy. I guess this would be the week to start him.

I should have taken my own advice....58 yard TD already

 

[ScottyFargo]

Ohhh man.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

 

[Das Boot]

 

[Downontheupside]

The trend continues!!! Even though I made the point he is inconsistent and can be a headache I totally agree that his over all play as a number 3 WR totally outweighs everything. He has 3 out of Shaubs 8 targets thus far. I hope he has a big game.

 

[toxicbees]

Very underrated player, glad I started him this week!!

 

[scottybo]

Good call.

 

[ffldrew]

If you look at his QB's over the last two years I think he has done a very good job - it's the QB's who are inconsistent or constantly changing due to injury or ineffectiveness. If Schaub could stay the starter and stay healthy he could be the Reggie Wayne like guy in their scheme.

 

[Big Score]

he actually is a very good WR3.

That's exactly what he is & if you use him as such, he's golden.

 

[Chunky Soup]

he actually is a very good WR3.

That's exactly what he is & if you use him as such, he's golden.

Only every other week, of course...

 

[Big Score]

he actually is a very good WR3.

That's exactly what he is & if you use him as such, he's golden.

Only every other week, of course...

Nope...he is a great fantasy football #3 WR as is & some might even say a low end fantasy football #2 WR.Now if he were putting up these kind of numbers EVERY week, then he'd be a GREAT fantasy football #1 WR.

 

[Downontheupside]

he actually is a very good WR3.

That's exactly what he is & if you use him as such, he's golden.

Only every other week, of course...

Nope...he is a great fantasy football #3 WR as is & some might even say a low end fantasy football #2 WR.Now if he were putting up these kind of numbers EVERY week, then he'd be a GREAT fantasy football #1 WR.

He carried me through the first round of my playoffs, now do I bench him because of his every other week trend and tough match up against Tenn? My other WRS are nothing to write home about: R. Moss, S. Homles, D. Branch, B. Edwards, B. Stokely. Tough call. This is where the headache part comes in.

 

[Das Boot]

he actually is a very good WR3.

That's exactly what he is & if you use him as such, he's golden.

Only every other week, of course...

Nope...he is a great fantasy football #3 WR as is & some might even say a low end fantasy football #2 WR.Now if he were putting up these kind of numbers EVERY week, then he'd be a GREAT fantasy football #1 WR.

He carried me through the first round of my playoffs, now do I bench him because of his every other week trend and tough match up against Tenn? My other WRS are nothing to write home about: R. Moss, S. Homles, D. Branch, B. Edwards, B. Stokely. Tough call. This is where the headache part comes in.

Actually that's an easy decision, it's his off week.

 

[Carver]

We start 4, and he has been $$ in my WR4 slot this season.

 

[Utter Chaos]

In case I forget can somebody revive this post in Week 16?

 

[•TheRealMcCoy]

I should have believed in this crap a few weeks ago!!! Started last week, on my bench this week!! Dare I start him over Colston this coming up week against Ten??? PROBABLY NOT!!

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

he actually is a very good WR3.

That's exactly what he is & if you use him as such, he's golden.

Only every other week, of course...

Nope...he is a great fantasy football #3 WR as is & some might even say a low end fantasy football #2 WR.Now if he were putting up these kind of numbers EVERY week, then he'd be a GREAT fantasy football #1 WR.

He carried me through the first round of my playoffs, now do I bench him because of his every other week trend and tough match up against Tenn? My other WRS are nothing to write home about: R. Moss, S. Homles, D. Branch, B. Edwards, B. Stokely. Tough call. This is where the headache part comes in.

You have to bench him since you believe in this "trend"

 

[Downontheupside]

he actually is a very good WR3.

That's exactly what he is & if you use him as such, he's golden.

Only every other week, of course...

Nope...he is a great fantasy football #3 WR as is & some might even say a low end fantasy football #2 WR.Now if he were putting up these kind of numbers EVERY week, then he'd be a GREAT fantasy football #1 WR.

He carried me through the first round of my playoffs, now do I bench him because of his every other week trend and tough match up against Tenn? My other WRS are nothing to write home about: R. Moss, S. Homles, D. Branch, B. Edwards, B. Stokely. Tough call. This is where the headache part comes in.

You have to bench him since you believe in this "trend"

No need to be a wise ###, it is a trend whether anyone believes it or not. The fact is he has a good preformance every other game. The argument is whether or not the trend is pure coincidence or there is some validity to it. It has nothing to do with match ups because he's had some good games vs tough D's, and bad games vs poor ones. He had a great game against Jax, and then a bad game against Jax. So he's not hammering the same team twice either. I can't explain it, but I could understand why someone would want to bench him against Tenn next week.

 

[Anon]

2/8 receiving this week.

 

[kinghill]

So he's a lock for 80+ yards and TD vs Oakland this week right?

Never in my life have I seen a trend continue 100% throughout the season like this.

ff points per week

10 / 1 / 19 / 3 / 9 / 2 / 19 / 4 / 14 / 7 / 15 / 3 / 20 / 0

 

[PatrickT]

So he's a lock for 80+ yards and TD vs Oakland this week right?Never in my life have I seen a trend continue 100% throughout the season like this.ff points per week10 / 1 / 19 / 3 / 9 / 2 / 19 / 4 / 14 / 7 / 15 / 3 / 20 / 0

I'm riding it. He's in, I didn't even think twice about it.

 

[joffer]

So he's a lock for 80+ yards and TD vs Oakland this week right?Never in my life have I seen a trend continue 100% throughout the season like this.ff points per week10 / 1 / 19 / 3 / 9 / 2 / 19 / 4 / 14 / 7 / 15 / 3 / 20 / 0

I'm riding it. He's in, I didn't even think twice about it.

not much choice for me with Quan down. i just became a believer in trends.

 

[Anon]

So he's a lock for 80+ yards and TD vs Oakland this week right?Never in my life have I seen a trend continue 100% throughout the season like this.ff points per week10 / 1 / 19 / 3 / 9 / 2 / 19 / 4 / 14 / 7 / 15 / 3 / 20 / 0

I'm riding it. He's in, I didn't even think twice about it.

not much choice for me with Quan down. i just became a believer in trends.

Same Situation. This may be a sign from the fantasy football gods that Walters is a must start.

 

[grif]

So he's a lock for 80+ yards and TD vs Oakland this week right?Never in my life have I seen a trend continue 100% throughout the season like this.ff points per week10 / 1 / 19 / 3 / 9 / 2 / 19 / 4 / 14 / 7 / 15 / 3 / 20 / 0

I'm riding it. He's in, I didn't even think twice about it.

Playing him as well. Lee Evans & Santana Moss hit the bench

 

[Ladsud]

He better keep with the trend, I wont have a chance this week with 2.8 points out of him.

 

[iSnitch]

I'll be damned. This is quite the trend.

 

[Englishteacher]

Right now I think I'm starting him in the Super Bowl over Derrick Mason and Bernard Berrian despite what the cheatsheets say. I figure he has way more upside than either. I'm a little scared though that he could draw covergage from asomugha or whatever his name is but you'd figure he'd cover the best WR in Andre Johnson. Any Raider homers know whether they play strict side coverage (the LCB is always the LCB despite matchups) and Asomugha might get stuck on Walters? If Asomugha covers Johnson and the go away from him I like the chances for Walters bc he might see the lion's share of the targets. Also, you figure Houston can score on Oakland and Walters has a ton of TD's this season. I like his outlook there although if Houston gets up early although they could abandon the pass and go to the run to win the game.

 

[toxicbees]

Right now I think I'm starting him in the Super Bowl over Derrick Mason and Bernard Berrian despite what the cheatsheets say. I figure he has way more upside than either. I'm a little scared though that he could draw covergage from asomugha or whatever his name is but you'd figure he'd cover the best WR in Andre Johnson. Any Raider homers know whether they play strict side coverage (the LCB is always the LCB despite matchups) and Asomugha might get stuck on Walters? If Asomugha covers Johnson and the go away from him I like the chances for Walters bc he might see the lion's share of the targets. Also, you figure Houston can score on Oakland and Walters has a ton of TD's this season. I like his outlook there although if Houston gets up early although they could abandon the pass and go to the run to win the game.

NE had no problem throwing against Oakland last week. Oakland is just trying to get a higher draft pick at this point. Asomugha only plays his side of the field. The O/U on the game is 44, with Oakland as a home dog giving 7 points, the weather in Oakland is going to be perfect. I think Kevin has a good chance to put up numbers this week.

 

[PosterNutBag]

For the most part, Asomugha lines up on the defensive right side of the field (which is also the offensive left side of the field). He generally stays there no matter what, but he will sometimes shadow a particular WR around (generally for only a limited time, though --- never for an entire game).

 

[Haberdasher]

His trend of every other week is kinda enticing. I think I'm starting him over Royal and Driver this week.

 

[LBH]

I think Im starting him over Housh this week. Hope the trend continues

 

[twr]

my wr3 is bowe......