The Miami Dolphins ask Tua to play under a 5th year option. Miami extends Tua beyond 2024 and settle on 4yrs/$212M (1 Viewer)

[Desert_Power]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

It's ridiculous how quickly folks turn on QBs in a team sport.

They’ve already turned on Jalen Hurts. Doesn’t take long at all.

These guys all have some level of flaws. Only Patty Mahomes is perfect currently.

Vast majority well prefer Hurts to Tua still. Interesting that Tua beat the other out at Bama. Size and arm strength matter more at this level.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

It's ridiculous how quickly folks turn on QBs in a team sport.

Isn't the opposite true here as well though? Tua has been in the league 4 years and this is his first great season, and it's questionable how much of that was really Tua given that it's a great system loaded with offensive talent all around hiim. And even in this great season he showed huge flaws and really folded into a shell at the end of every close game.

It's not like he's been doing it consistently for 10 years and had a bad game or two. In reality he had a some monster games over about half a season against bad teams while playing in a loaded offense/system. Then he fell apart time and time again when the team needed to lean on him even a little bit.

It is a great system, but it is also one built off of Tua's strengths. He was great last season too. Statistically better just kept getting concussed.

I don't think it is fair that all the injuries on the team, bad drops, and poor coaching decisions get turned into Tua "falling apart". That is certainly going to be the narrative from talking heads all offseason though. It is going to get worse when he signs an extension because Ross, with all his flaws, is smart enough to know the salary cap is not really the constraint.

I'm talking about stuff like this.

Game on the line, two plays back to back, the coach draws up plays to get receivers WIDE OPEN (5-10 yards of separation) to tie the game, and on back to back plays the ball slips out of his hand. It's crazy. You see the ball slip out of a guy's hand as he throws or a QB drop a snap that is perfectly fine occasionally. To have it happen twice in a row is unheard of, especially in a situation like that.

And it would be one thing if it were an isolated incident. But any time it's near the end of the game and the Dolphins need a key drive, or a key 3rd/4th down, etc, you can just feel that he's going to come up small, and he almost always does. Holds onto the ball and takes a sack when the primary read was open. Sails a ball 5 yards high or 5 yards wide of a receiver. Consistently in bigtime situations, he not only doesn't make the play, but comes comically short of even giving the team a chance.

 

[-OZ-]

I’m pretty sure he is worth 1.8+ but I’m just throwing out a random trade idea. Most likely path is they work out a deal that doesn’t hurt their cap in 24/25 but then starts to escalate hits 26/27.

Hard disagree, and I really like Tua.
If he kept his rookie contract, sure. The guy isn’t a top 10 QB but will be paid like one.
Give me Jayden Daniels on a rookie contract or sign tannehill for a LOT less than Tua would demand.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I’m pretty sure he is worth 1.8+ but I’m just throwing out a random trade idea. Most likely path is they work out a deal that doesn’t hurt their cap in 24/25 but then starts to escalate hits 26/27.

Hard disagree, and I really like Tua.
If he kept his rookie contract, sure. The guy isn’t a top 10 QB but will be paid like one.
Give me Jayden Daniels on a rookie contract or sign tannehill for a LOT less than Tua would demand.

Pretty sure you cannot pick Daniels at 1.8 and no other qb outside the big 3 is worth anywhere close to Tua or 1.8.

 

[-OZ-]

I’m pretty sure he is worth 1.8+ but I’m just throwing out a random trade idea. Most likely path is they work out a deal that doesn’t hurt their cap in 24/25 but then starts to escalate hits 26/27.

Hard disagree, and I really like Tua.
If he kept his rookie contract, sure. The guy isn’t a top 10 QB but will be paid like one.
Give me Jayden Daniels on a rookie contract or sign tannehill for a LOT less than Tua would demand.

Pretty sure you cannot pick Daniels at 1.8 and no other qb outside the big 3 is worth anywhere close to Tua or 1.8.

We’ll see. I also would possibly take penix over Tua at their costs.

 

[SoBeDad]

He's 25, 26 in March.

Players get better. See Jared Goff.

See also Baker, who had some up and down years in CLE, but found a good match in TAM. Both teams had a home playoff game and won. Both have very good talent at the skill position, like Miami. Detroit has a great line, Tampa had stability on the line, but lost a good center like Miami did. Tua has no good or even average TE or physical over the middle receiver like both DET & TAM do. This hurts Tua's ability to keep drives alive or get 3rd and short situations. McDaniel likes speed, but size matters and his non-use of TEs is a huge outlier.

Brees was 27 when he went to NO and Payton. He wasn't slinging it 300 ypc until NO. I hope McDaniel and Tua both learn, Kurt Warner has some criticism of both Tua and Scheme in the KC game.

 

[fruity pebbles]

Tua is going to get that multi year 50 million per year type contract from somebody. If there’s a debate on whether he’s worth that isn’t his trade value very little?

 

[ignatiusjreilly]

He's 25, 26 in March.

Players get better. See Jared Goff.

See also Baker, who had some up and down years in CLE, but found a good match in TAM. Both teams had a home playoff game and won. Both have very good talent at the skill position, like Miami. Detroit has a great line, Tampa had stability on the line, but lost a good center like Miami did. Tua has no good or even average TE or physical over the middle receiver like both DET & TAM do. This hurts Tua's ability to keep drives alive or get 3rd and short situations. McDaniel likes speed, but size matters and his non-use of TEs is a huge outlier.

Brees was 27 when he went to NO and Payton. He wasn't slinging it 300 ypc until NO. I hope McDaniel and Tua both learn, Kurt Warner has some criticism of both Tua and Scheme in the KC game.

As a Detroit fan who lives in Miami. I think this is about right. Tua definitely has his flaws, and he may never get there, but he's way better than any alternatives at the moment. The goal should be to give him a new contract without hamstringing the franchise if it goes badly, the way the Giants did with Jones. (How do they do that? I'm not a capologist, man.)

I think both McDaniels and Tua have shown growth from Year 1 to Year 2, and I definitely think they could continue to find ways to improve. And the team also needs to continue building the roster around him to address weaknesses.

What's interesting is that a few years ago, everyone was saying teams needed to cut bait on middle-of-the-road QBs and shoot for the stars. We saw both Tampa and LAR win Super Bowls after upgrading their QBs. But in recent years, the pendulum has started to swing back. For one thing, supposed upgrades like Russ, Watson and Trey Lance flamed out pretty badly. For another, we've seen teams succeed with the "build a great lineup around a competent QB" model (SF, Detroit, Philly). Granted, none of those teams have won a Super Bowl yet, but a lot of that is luck anyway (if Jaquiski Tartt doesn't drop a gimme INT in the NFCCG, Stafford's legacy is suddenly a lot more complicated).

Point being, I think you can still build a contender around a non-superstar QB, even if your margin of error is smaller. And I think that's probably the Dolphins best path at the moment

 

[massraider]

Lot of things weren't going in the Fins direction this past weekend. Would have been nice if he killed it on the road vs the champions in historic cold, but feels like a reach to pin too much to this game. This isn't like Dak.

He's good enough that moving on from him shouldn't be a priority. If you come across a young phenom QB, hey maybe. Tua is not a lock, I get it. But maybe McDaniel is good enough that he doesn't need a top 5 QB. Is he on Purdy level?

You decide he's not the guy and move on, you better get the next one right.

 

[travdogg]

How is Philly feeling right now after they paid Jalen Hurts $250M?
I can go down this list but IMHO the only QB that really earned all this money and deserved almost every red cent was Joe Burrow and he didn't start or finish the season

Assuming the list is the $250M barrier, you don't think Mahomes, Allen, or Lamar have earned their money...but Burrow has?

Personally, I think the Eagles should feel fine about Hurts. I think we're gonna learn pretty soon that he was playing on like a torn MCL or something. Also think the Chargers should feel fine about Herbert's deal. Honestly, I think all the $250M QB's have earned it, and have or are likely to back it up. Its that 2nd tier of guys in the $200M range, the Kyler/Russ/Watson group that are making it look bad, and jury is probably still out on Kyler.

In my eyes, every player can kinda be placed in the A-F scale after 3 seasons, doing so earlier requires a bit of projection in my opinion, which can be dangerous. For that scale:

A=HOF level
B=Pro Bowl level
C=Solid starter
D=Backup/Part-time player
F=Borderline NFL player

I look at all these QBs as follows:

Allen=A, I think he's SO much better than his stats.
Lamar=B
Mahomes=B+, would have been an A earlier in his career.
Hurts=B-
Herbert=B
Burrow=B+
Wilson=C-, was an A- at his peak.
Murray=C, was at a C+ before ACL tear.
Watson=C-, probably topped out as a B+ in Houston
Tua=C+

I think B- is my cutoff for what I think is a QB who elevates his teammates and is deserving of a big deal, so for me, Tua is a guy I'd make play for one more season before a big extension. If he holds out, so be it. It's too risky to break the bank on someone who hasn't shown they are that guy yet. Of these names, at the moment, I think Tua is probably closest to Murray.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Well, Since we have taken this discussion out of the Dolphin thread and to its own location, here is my take:

On his 5th year option, Tua is a 23 million dollar cap hit. Miami (specifically McDaniel and Grier) both like Tua, so I assume he will resign. Figure his "market value" is somewhere around 35-40 mil per year (based on what the QB landscape looks like) on the normal end, and 50 mil on the high end. With his injury history and the need to create some cap space, Miami likely signs him to a 4 or 5 year 150 - 200 million dollar deal with it really being a 2 year deal with some dead money on year 3 if Tua doesn't improve (Roster bonuses etc on the contract to protect the phins and Tua if the concussions come back up etc). Grier for all of his faults has been good at creating deals that give Miami an "out" if the player craps the bed, or ways to mitigate the cap hits if the player works out and mIami needs the cap room.

They likely lower his cap hit to 10 million this year, freeing up 13 mil in cap space to help sign more guys for the 2 year "contender" window of 2024 and 2025.

2026 if Miami has won a title or not will be time for the "hard" choices. Stephen Ross wants to win and has money to burn. If he tells grier "buy me a championship" I am sure there will be a lot of signing bonus money to pay now and likely a "tear down and rebuild" in 2027 regardless of Tua and the Dolphins' fate.

You understand why I did that to relieve you guys from having to argue with me because I do not want them to extend Tua as painful as that might sound
He is ill equipped to do anything to save the day
I'm tired of only being happy if he doesn't further injure himself, he made $30M on his rookie deal, $23M for his 5th year option in 2024
I would make him play and then be ready to franchise tag him and extend him at that point
If he indicates the answer is NO/Holdout, it's time to start thinking about trading him

The worst thing this team can do is lock up BIG BUCKS on a player we all know doesn't move the needle and has a Head Coach who is ready to protect him with smoke and mirrors
The Bucs got further and paid their Quarterback $4M dollars, there's other options and roads
I kinda knew you would post, I just didn't want to turn what is arguably one of the better team threads into what has to be discussed in here.
And I wanted to reach a wider array of POV from other fans who don't root for Miami

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I don't like lumping Purdy and Tua together.

Tua was able to leverage playing in a great system into putting up a solid season about on par with Kirk Cousins' 4th best season.

Purdy was able to leverage playing a great system into putting up one of the top 10 to 15 most efficient QB seasons in NFL history, which possibly would have been top 5 ever were it not for one really bad day.

Those two things aren't the same.

 

[SoBeDad]

I don't like lumping Purdy and Tua together.

Tua was able to leverage playing in a great system into putting up a solid season about on par with Kirk Cousins' 4th best season.

Purdy was able to leverage playing a great system into putting up one of the top 10 to 15 most efficient QB seasons in NFL history, which possibly would have been top 5 ever were it not for one really bad day.

Those two things aren't the same.

Agree. Purdy's ceiling looks more like Brady's long-term. Tua is in the same group as Goff and Baker. Plus, Shanahan is better than McDaniel at this point, which makes a difference.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

How is Philly feeling right now after they paid Jalen Hurts $250M?
I can go down this list but IMHO the only QB that really earned all this money and deserved almost every red cent was Joe Burrow and he didn't start or finish the season

Assuming the list is the $250M barrier, you don't think Mahomes, Allen, or Lamar have earned their money...but Burrow has?

Personally, I think the Eagles should feel fine about Hurts. I think we're gonna learn pretty soon that he was playing on like a torn MCL or something. Also think the Chargers should feel fine about Herbert's deal. Honestly, I think all the $250M QB's have earned it, and have or are likely to back it up. Its that 2nd tier of guys in the $200M range, the Kyler/Russ/Watson group that are making it look bad, and jury is probably still out on Kyler.

In my eyes, every player can kinda be placed in the A-F scale after 3 seasons, doing so earlier requires a bit of projection in my opinion, which can be dangerous. For that scale:

A=HOF level
B=Pro Bowl level
C=Solid starter
D=Backup/Part-time player
F=Borderline NFL player

I look at all these QBs as follows:

Allen=A, I think he's SO much better than his stats.
Lamar=B
Mahomes=B+, would have been an A earlier in his career.
Hurts=B-
Herbert=B
Burrow=B+
Wilson=C-, was an A- at his peak.
Murray=C, was at a C+ before ACL tear.
Watson=C-, probably topped out as a B+ in Houston
Tua=C+

I think B- is my cutoff for what I think is a QB who elevates his teammates and is deserving of a big deal, so for me, Tua is a guy I'd make play for one more season before a big extension. If he holds out, so be it. It's too risky to break the bank on someone who hasn't shown they are that guy yet. Of these names, at the moment, I think Tua is probably closest to Murray.

I'm sorry, how many Playoff games has Lamar won and didn't his own team force him to play out his 5th year option or am I way off on this?
Joe Burrow took a completely dysfunctional HORRIBLE historic franchise that has done nothing but try and get away with spending as little as they can, even made Burrow wait until the start of '23-Week 1 when all the other QBs already cashing in, they are cheap no good SOBs that own that franchise and they have never been able to keep it together, they screwed Palmer and they have gotten Burrow killed 2 out of his first 4 seasons, you bet your bleeping mother bleeping bleep bleep that he's EARNED IT having to play in that Skyline Jungle called Cincinnati, somebody get me some GD Chili-Mac before I blow another gasket in here

Let's focus on the OP-Tua and if you want to do a Top-10 QBs with the alphabet signs then go for it but I disagree with much of your assessment and I think you get caught up when QBs go on runs and the Bills are hot at the moment but not so much when they were 6-6, didn't see a Josh Allen is a HoF thread that week

 

[Man In The Box]

If we can get 1.8 for Tua I’ll personally drive him to the airport.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

How is Philly feeling right now after they paid Jalen Hurts $250M?
I can go down this list but IMHO the only QB that really earned all this money and deserved almost every red cent was Joe Burrow and he didn't start or finish the season

Assuming the list is the $250M barrier, you don't think Mahomes, Allen, or Lamar have earned their money...but Burrow has?

Personally, I think the Eagles should feel fine about Hurts. I think we're gonna learn pretty soon that he was playing on like a torn MCL or something. Also think the Chargers should feel fine about Herbert's deal. Honestly, I think all the $250M QB's have earned it, and have or are likely to back it up. Its that 2nd tier of guys in the $200M range, the Kyler/Russ/Watson group that are making it look bad, and jury is probably still out on Kyler.

In my eyes, every player can kinda be placed in the A-F scale after 3 seasons, doing so earlier requires a bit of projection in my opinion, which can be dangerous. For that scale:

A=HOF level
B=Pro Bowl level
C=Solid starter
D=Backup/Part-time player
F=Borderline NFL player

I look at all these QBs as follows:

Allen=A, I think he's SO much better than his stats.
Lamar=B
Mahomes=B+, would have been an A earlier in his career.
Hurts=B-
Herbert=B
Burrow=B+
Wilson=C-, was an A- at his peak.
Murray=C, was at a C+ before ACL tear.
Watson=C-, probably topped out as a B+ in Houston
Tua=C+

I think B- is my cutoff for what I think is a QB who elevates his teammates and is deserving of a big deal, so for me, Tua is a guy I'd make play for one more season before a big extension. If he holds out, so be it. It's too risky to break the bank on someone who hasn't shown they are that guy yet. Of these names, at the moment, I think Tua is probably closest to Murray.

Allen is a rich man's combo of an elite pocket qb plus Tim Tebow's legs. But he's sloppy. A-.
I'd take Mahommes or Burrow 8 days a week over Lamar regardless of 2023 stats. Baltimore added a ton of receiving talent and Lamar still looks like marginally accurate Lamar.
I'd also take Herbert over Lamar; its not his fault that the Chargers have sucked on defense and in play calling since he's been there.
At his peak, Wilson was an A+ not an A-.

 

[SoBeDad]

If we can get 1.8 for Tua I’ll personally drive him to the airport.

DEN has 1.12. Payton took a good QB from SD and made him great in NO. I don't think Tua is as good, but Payton>McDaniel+Grier from what I've seen.

 

[travdogg]

How is Philly feeling right now after they paid Jalen Hurts $250M?
I can go down this list but IMHO the only QB that really earned all this money and deserved almost every red cent was Joe Burrow and he didn't start or finish the season

Assuming the list is the $250M barrier, you don't think Mahomes, Allen, or Lamar have earned their money...but Burrow has?

Personally, I think the Eagles should feel fine about Hurts. I think we're gonna learn pretty soon that he was playing on like a torn MCL or something. Also think the Chargers should feel fine about Herbert's deal. Honestly, I think all the $250M QB's have earned it, and have or are likely to back it up. Its that 2nd tier of guys in the $200M range, the Kyler/Russ/Watson group that are making it look bad, and jury is probably still out on Kyler.

In my eyes, every player can kinda be placed in the A-F scale after 3 seasons, doing so earlier requires a bit of projection in my opinion, which can be dangerous. For that scale:

A=HOF level
B=Pro Bowl level
C=Solid starter
D=Backup/Part-time player
F=Borderline NFL player

I look at all these QBs as follows:

Allen=A, I think he's SO much better than his stats.
Lamar=B
Mahomes=B+, would have been an A earlier in his career.
Hurts=B-
Herbert=B
Burrow=B+
Wilson=C-, was an A- at his peak.
Murray=C, was at a C+ before ACL tear.
Watson=C-, probably topped out as a B+ in Houston
Tua=C+

I think B- is my cutoff for what I think is a QB who elevates his teammates and is deserving of a big deal, so for me, Tua is a guy I'd make play for one more season before a big extension. If he holds out, so be it. It's too risky to break the bank on someone who hasn't shown they are that guy yet. Of these names, at the moment, I think Tua is probably closest to Murray.

I'm sorry, how many Playoff games has Lamar won and didn't his own team force him to play out his 5th year option or am I way off on this?
Joe Burrow took a completely dysfunctional HORRIBLE historic franchise that has done nothing but try and get away with spending as little as they can, even made Burrow wait until the start of '23-Week 1 when all the other QBs already cashing in, they are cheap no good SOBs that own that franchise and they have never been able to keep it together, they screwed Palmer and they have gotten Burrow killed 2 out of his first 4 seasons, you bet your bleeping mother bleeping bleep bleep that he's EARNED IT having to play in that Skyline Jungle called Cincinnati, somebody get me some GD Chili-Mac before I blow another gasket in here

Let's focus on the OP-Tua and if you want to do a Top-10 QBs with the alphabet signs then go for it but I disagree with much of your assessment and I think you get caught up when QBs go on runs and the Bills are hot at the moment but not so much when they were 6-6, didn't see a Josh Allen is a HoF thread that week

Did you just "good posting" your own post?

Anyway, I wasn't doing a top-10 list (I would greatly question anyone having current Watson in a top-10) but just comparing players who signed massive deals, like the one Tua may be up for. You said Burrow was the ONLY QB who earned a big ($250M) contract. I just presented a case of all the QBs who have gotten or gotten close to that contract and how I thought they rated. Lamar likely has 2 MVP awards. Mahomes has had better success than anyone, even though I'd argue that's a bad, or at least overvalued, metric to use.

No recency bias whatsoever with Josh Allen. He's been the NFL's best player since 2020 in my eyes. Carrying an average team to 4 straight division titles. Swap Tua (who I think is a solid QB) and Allen and change nothing else, and Miami has the NFL's best record, and the Bills are behind the Jets in the East. Allen's arm and ability to buy time, with Hill and Waddle's downfield ability would be as dangerous as any passing game in NFL history.

As for Tua, I think he's better than his detractors think he is, but also not as good as his stats say he is. Some of that is the style of offense, as we've seen with Jimmy G and Purdy in that style offense. I think he's clearly better than Jimmy G, and I'd say the jury is out still on just how good Purdy is. I think Tua is better than Goff or Mayfield among guys playing next week. Jury is out on Love. So if Tua is say, the 10th best QB in the NFL, what is he worth? I highly reject the notion you could just plug anyone in there and they'd be great, but "anyone" isn't getting $50M on their next deal, Tua might. Ultimately, I'd answer the question, yes, Miami has a right to ask Tua to play under the 5th year option, and I think if he refuses, they shouldn't budge. I think if some other team wants to pay it, Tua is probably worth a late 1st/early 2nd factoring on the upcoming deal, but its risky to replace him, because what is the alternative? A rookie like Penix or Nix? A vet like Wilson, Tannehill, or Jimmy G? A trade for Fields? I'm not sure any of those are appealing, and I say that as a Fields defender.

How is Philly feeling right now after they paid Jalen Hurts $250M?
I can go down this list but IMHO the only QB that really earned all this money and deserved almost every red cent was Joe Burrow and he didn't start or finish the season

Assuming the list is the $250M barrier, you don't think Mahomes, Allen, or Lamar have earned their money...but Burrow has?

Personally, I think the Eagles should feel fine about Hurts. I think we're gonna learn pretty soon that he was playing on like a torn MCL or something. Also think the Chargers should feel fine about Herbert's deal. Honestly, I think all the $250M QB's have earned it, and have or are likely to back it up. Its that 2nd tier of guys in the $200M range, the Kyler/Russ/Watson group that are making it look bad, and jury is probably still out on Kyler.

In my eyes, every player can kinda be placed in the A-F scale after 3 seasons, doing so earlier requires a bit of projection in my opinion, which can be dangerous. For that scale:

A=HOF level
B=Pro Bowl level
C=Solid starter
D=Backup/Part-time player
F=Borderline NFL player

I look at all these QBs as follows:

Allen=A, I think he's SO much better than his stats.
Lamar=B
Mahomes=B+, would have been an A earlier in his career.
Hurts=B-
Herbert=B
Burrow=B+
Wilson=C-, was an A- at his peak.
Murray=C, was at a C+ before ACL tear.
Watson=C-, probably topped out as a B+ in Houston
Tua=C+

I think B- is my cutoff for what I think is a QB who elevates his teammates and is deserving of a big deal, so for me, Tua is a guy I'd make play for one more season before a big extension. If he holds out, so be it. It's too risky to break the bank on someone who hasn't shown they are that guy yet. Of these names, at the moment, I think Tua is probably closest to Murray.

Allen is a rich man's combo of an elite pocket qb plus Tim Tebow's legs. But he's sloppy. A-.
I'd take Mahommes or Burrow 8 days a week over Lamar regardless of 2023 stats. Baltimore added a ton of receiving talent and Lamar still looks like marginally accurate Lamar.
I'd also take Herbert over Lamar; its not his fault that the Chargers have sucked on defense and in play calling since he's been there.
At his peak, Wilson was an A+ not an A-.

I'm pretty stubborn about giving out an A+. That might be a Brady-only category. Maybe Peyton. I don't think Wilson is on that level, though I will give him best rookie QB of all-time.

Allen is evolutionary John Elway to me. Agree he can be sloppy, but the trade-off is more than worth it, just like it was with him. I can't agree with Herbert>Lamar, just because Lamar's rushing is SO valuable. They are close though.

 

[MAC_32]

I don't like lumping Purdy and Tua together.

Tua was able to leverage playing in a great system into putting up a solid season about on par with Kirk Cousins' 4th best season.

Purdy was able to leverage playing a great system into putting up one of the top 10 to 15 most efficient QB seasons in NFL history, which possibly would have been top 5 ever were it not for one really bad day.

Those two things aren't the same.

**SMALL SAMPLE SIZE WARNING** but Brock's numbers when playing without Deebo:

55-88
762 yds
3 TD
5 INT
6 sacks
2 fumbles
17 points per game
0 wins
3 losses

Those games just happened in October instead of January, so they're easier to forget. 2 of those 3 games also came against the AFC and neither accounts for the egg laid against Baltimore you referenced. Common opponents?

Purdy
101-148
1442 yds
12 TD
4 INT
7 sacks
1 fumble
32 ppg
4 wins
1 loss

Tua
110-161
1,338 yds
8 TD
5 INT
8 sacks
1 fumble
29 ppg
3 wins
2 losses

Don't get me wrong, in a vacuum - 2023 Purdy in SF > 2023 Tua in MIA. It's closer then you think though.

 

[SoBeDad]

I'm not sure what this means, but the drop-off at center from Connor Williams to Liam Eichenberg was huge, a 40 point drop-off in PFF grade.

>>Miami Dolphins did more to hide their Offensive Line's deficiencies in pass protection than any team of the last decade. Wasn't sustainable.<<

https://twitter.com/ckparrot/status/1746986860520353890?t=Ixj2OZqexc5KBFZ5wswQAw&s=19

 

[Mitchie]

If we can get 1.8 for Tua I’ll personally drive him to the airport.

DEN has 1.12. Payton took a good QB from SD and made him great in NO. I don't think Tua is as good, but Payton>McDaniel+Grier from what I've seen.

Or Brees took a good coach and made him a great one...

 

[Gatorman]

Well, Since we have taken this discussion out of the Dolphin thread and to its own location, here is my take:

On his 5th year option, Tua is a 23 million dollar cap hit. Miami (specifically McDaniel and Grier) both like Tua, so I assume he will resign. Figure his "market value" is somewhere around 35-40 mil per year (based on what the QB landscape looks like) on the normal end, and 50 mil on the high end. With his injury history and the need to create some cap space, Miami likely signs him to a 4 or 5 year 150 - 200 million dollar deal with it really being a 2 year deal with some dead money on year 3 if Tua doesn't improve (Roster bonuses etc on the contract to protect the phins and Tua if the concussions come back up etc). Grier for all of his faults has been good at creating deals that give Miami an "out" if the player craps the bed, or ways to mitigate the cap hits if the player works out and mIami needs the cap room.

They likely lower his cap hit to 10 million this year, freeing up 13 mil in cap space to help sign more guys for the 2 year "contender" window of 2024 and 2025.

2026 if Miami has won a title or not will be time for the "hard" choices. Stephen Ross wants to win and has money to burn. If he tells grier "buy me a championship" I am sure there will be a lot of signing bonus money to pay now and likely a "tear down and rebuild" in 2027 regardless of Tua and the Dolphins' fate.

The worst thing this team can do is lock up BIG BUCKS on a player we all know doesn't move the needle and has a Head Coach who is ready to protect him with smoke and mirrors

How about this, I agree with you here. However, these things do not occur in a vacuum. 3 things temper this: 1) The Salary cap, 2) How the staff feels about Tua, and 3) what are our alternatives?

So, Miami is in a certain spot with this team, and with this Roster. The one thing I do not see them doing is having Tua play on his 5th year option. I guess if the two sides cannot come to an agreement, then Miami will have to make a hard choice, but I do not think it comes to that, mainly BC Miami (not us, but the HC and GM) feel Tua is worth keeping for the foreseeable future.

Again, Tua's deal is likely to be lower than Hurt's and (Hopefully) with an out in 2026 /dead cap hit if Miami does not win in this 3 year window. I'm trusting the dolphins to make this a "mid tier" QB deal which in todays NFL is 35-40 mil a year. His injury history should give the phins some outs, and perhaps he may take a "system" discount bc he likely doesn't thrive anywhere else like he will in Miami with this coach.

Figure Tua and Wilkins get the extensions here that eat up a lot of Ross' money but make the cap look better in 2024 and 25. 2026 the bill likely comes due on Ramsey, Hill, Chubb but we will need to pay Phillips, Waddle, and Holland.

Finally, Lets' take the other example: Miami rescinds Tua's 5th year option and goes after Cousins. You think Cousins will come in with a cap friendly number? And/or do you think he will be a better option than Tua at that same number?

Face it MOP, like it or not (barring injury) Tua will be he face of the franchise for the next 3 years. Now, looking at the AFC, How many QBs would you say are better? Allen, Mahomes, Lamar, Herbert, Stroud, Burrow (also an injury risk QB now) and maybe Lawrence (I'd argue that Tua has looked better than Lawrence in terms of resume so far).

Finally, what QB who is actually "out there" improves this team in McDaniels' system? Russ? Cousins? Flacco? Everyone keeps talking about Fields like it would be an easy get and an easy change for Miami and their system. I see him as a step back for at least 2024-25.

 

[JohnnyU]

Yes. They are owner / management and he is the employee .

 

[GregR]

Maybe Miami, Chicago and Atlanta do a 3 way trade. Bears get 2.8, falcons get Tua, and Miami gets 1.8 and Fields. Who says no?

I've been mulling this over since I saw it yesterday as it's so hard to figure out what Tua is worth, I think.

But I keep coming back to, I think the 2.8 by itself is closer to the realistic net for Tua, than is the 1.8 and Fields. Or since the Bears are giving up Fields for the 2.8 in this hypothetical, I'm thinking of it as the 1.8 and 2.8.

Maybe a late first and a later pick if they get a couple of teams vying for him. I don't know though, it will depend so heavily on the demand. If Tua only went for a late 2nd I wouldn't be floored. Nor if someone gave up two late firsts. I am not even sure a team would given up the 1.8 for him straight up though.

If Miami is looking to move on from him to Fields, I mean that kind of sets his value in my head as not being worth much more than Fields.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/01/03/signs-point-toward-tua-tagovailoa-extension-dolphins-quarterback

-All signs indicate Miami will extend Tua this off season for at least $40M per year

 

[massraider]

Yeah, cause people in MIA want to keep a QB that played well for them. They don't have the luxury of blowing it up with no repercussions, like fans do.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

-"Chris Grier, you have a phone call on Line -1...it's the Vikings"

-"Chris Grier, you have a call on Line-2...it's Sean Payton and the Broncos"

-"Chris Grier you have a call on Line-3...Arthur Blank would like to talk to you"

I'm just getting piece mailed a lot on text, not sure what's real and what isn't but apparently the Tua Tags market is RED HOT!!!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Tua Tagovailoa trade destinations: 3 teams that should pursue Dolphins star if QB becomes available

Tua Tagovailoa got off to a scorching start to the 2023 NFL season with the Miami Dolphins.

www.sportskeeda.com

-If Tua is available? This GM traded down and then back up as he spent two 1st Rd picks to get Waddle, he'll do anything on the trade market
Hill, Chubb, Ramsey, all trades that Grier pulled off

 

[Ministry of Pain]

They still haven't extended him.
I think if Miami really wanted to extend him, they could have done that already
The price just keeps going up and now it's top dollar.

 

[jon_mx]

He's 25, 26 in March.

Players get better. See Jared Goff.

Did Goff get that much better? Goff is a function of his supporting cast. Top 2 OL. Top 2 RB duo. Top 3 TE. Top 5 WR with a lethal threat of Jamo on top. Similar with the Rams, Goff play fluctuated with his OL and run game.

 

[JohnnyU]

Do the Dolphins really want to sign Tua to a long term contract in 2025 with his concussion history? Penix makes sense here, to sit and learn in 2024. I know Tua stayed away from a concussion in 2023, but one more bad one could be devastating.

 

[msudaisy26]

Tua is a top 15 qb in the league and those are difficult to come by, plus the Dolphins are in a win now mode. Pay him and if it doesn't work you trade him in 2 or 3 years when the contract will be close to the end and will look a whole better.

 

[msudaisy26]

Do the Dolphins really want to sign Tua to a long term contract in 2025 with his concussion history? Penix makes sense here, to sit and learn in 2024. I know Tua stayed away from a concussion in 2023, but one more bad one could be devastating.

Not really. Dolphins are win now and you want them to waste a first round pick or trade up and waste an early 2nd round pick on a guy that probably won't play for a year or 2?

 

[zed2283]

Sheesh, whoever said "NFL = Not For Long" wasn't lying.

Jerry Glanville

 

[Todem]

They can ask but he’ll hold out

Let him then.

 

[Todem]

Do the Dolphins really want to sign Tua to a long term contract in 2025 with his concussion history? Penix makes sense here, to sit and learn in 2024. I know Tua stayed away from a concussion in 2023, but one more bad one could be devastating.

Not really. Dolphins are win now and you want them to waste a first round pick or trade up and waste an early 2nd round pick on a guy that probably won't play for a year or 2?

They ain't "win now" anymore.

Chubb and Phillips won't be back for a while, lost Van Ginkel, Wilkens.

But if you think Tua is all that.....ok.


I don't. He can't carry this team if his life depended on it.

At this point in the NFL you have:

Mahomes


Allen
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
CJ Stroud
Lamar Jackson
Brock Purdy

And then you got the rest.....all the same to me and all overpaid In the worst way and I blame the owners.

QB's are commanding ridiculous salaries these days for average performance.

And stats can lie....especially in this day and age of all the rules in favor of the offense.

We are wasting our time and money with Tua.

I just as soon start over yet again.

Get as many picks as possible and draft a QB till you hit on one.

I simply don't care for Tua the football player. Tua the person is a great kid. But he is an average QB....the league is filled with Tua's. He is replaceable.

 

[msudaisy26]

Do the Dolphins really want to sign Tua to a long term contract in 2025 with his concussion history? Penix makes sense here, to sit and learn in 2024. I know Tua stayed away from a concussion in 2023, but one more bad one could be devastating.

Not really. Dolphins are win now and you want them to waste a first round pick or trade up and waste an early 2nd round pick on a guy that probably won't play for a year or 2?

They ain't "win now" anymore.

Chubb and Phillips won't be back for a while, lost Van Ginkel, Wilkens.

But if you think Tua is all that.....ok.


I don't. He can't carry this team if his life depended on it.

At this point in the NFL you have:

Mahomes


Allen
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
CJ Stroud
Lamar Jackson
Brock Purdy

And then you got the rest.....all the same to me and all overpaid In the worst way and I blame the owners.

QB's are commanding ridiculous salaries these days for average performance.

And stats can lie....especially in this day and age of all the rules in favor of the offense.

We are wasting our time and money with Tua.

I just as soon start over yet again.

Get as many picks as possible and draft a QB till you hit on one.

I simply don't care for Tua the football player. Tua the person is a great kid. But he is an average QB....the league is filled with Tua's. He is replaceable.

I never said he is great. I think he some where between 7ish and 12 in the qb rankings.

You might not see the Dolphins as win now, but they do and that is all that matters.

 

[Todem]

Do the Dolphins really want to sign Tua to a long term contract in 2025 with his concussion history? Penix makes sense here, to sit and learn in 2024. I know Tua stayed away from a concussion in 2023, but one more bad one could be devastating.

Not really. Dolphins are win now and you want them to waste a first round pick or trade up and waste an early 2nd round pick on a guy that probably won't play for a year or 2?

They ain't "win now" anymore.

Chubb and Phillips won't be back for a while, lost Van Ginkel, Wilkens.

But if you think Tua is all that.....ok.


I don't. He can't carry this team if his life depended on it.

At this point in the NFL you have:

Mahomes


Allen
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
CJ Stroud
Lamar Jackson
Brock Purdy

And then you got the rest.....all the same to me and all overpaid In the worst way and I blame the owners.

QB's are commanding ridiculous salaries these days for average performance.

And stats can lie....especially in this day and age of all the rules in favor of the offense.

We are wasting our time and money with Tua.

I just as soon start over yet again.

Get as many picks as possible and draft a QB till you hit on one.

I simply don't care for Tua the football player. Tua the person is a great kid. But he is an average QB....the league is filled with Tua's. He is replaceable.

I never said he is great. I think he some where between 7ish and 12 in the qb rankings.

You might not see the Dolphins as win now, but they do and that is all that matters.

Glad our front office is delusional about this team. Last season it was lined up for us and those damn injuries on defense killed us.

But that performance offensively at KC was downright embarrassing.

We are gonna be lucky to break over 9 wins next season.

Tua is outside the top 10 for me personally.

 

[SuperFantasyFootballGuy]

If I am the Dolphins, no way I am extending Tua past Tyreek Hill's contract which expires in 2026. Franchise him a few times if you have to and then trade him away.


Once Tyreek is gone, this guy is going to turn back into a pumpkin.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Do the Dolphins really want to sign Tua to a long term contract in 2025 with his concussion history? Penix makes sense here, to sit and learn in 2024. I know Tua stayed away from a concussion in 2023, but one more bad one could be devastating.

Not really. Dolphins are win now and you want them to waste a first round pick or trade up and waste an early 2nd round pick on a guy that probably won't play for a year or 2?

They ain't "win now" anymore.

Chubb and Phillips won't be back for a while, lost Van Ginkel, Wilkens.

But if you think Tua is all that.....ok.


I don't. He can't carry this team if his life depended on it.

At this point in the NFL you have:

Mahomes


Allen
Joe Burrow
Justin Herbert
CJ Stroud
Lamar Jackson
Brock Purdy

And then you got the rest.....all the same to me and all overpaid In the worst way and I blame the owners.

QB's are commanding ridiculous salaries these days for average performance.

And stats can lie....especially in this day and age of all the rules in favor of the offense.

We are wasting our time and money with Tua.

I just as soon start over yet again.

Get as many picks as possible and draft a QB till you hit on one.

I simply don't care for Tua the football player. Tua the person is a great kid. But he is an average QB....the league is filled with Tua's. He is replaceable.

I never said he is great. I think he some where between 7ish and 12 in the qb rankings.

You might not see the Dolphins as win now, but they do and that is all that matters.

The Dolphins are on "pause" in 2024
-That's the Miami beat writers not just rabid fans that see the team stepping backwards this year.

https://twitter.com/chrisperk/status/1767654007584022561

 

[SoBeDad]

If I am the Dolphins, no way I am extending Tua past Tyreek Hill's contract which expires in 2026. Franchise him a few times if you have to and then trade him away.


Once Tyreek is gone, this guy is going to turn back into a pumpkin.

Maybe. He's on a higher trajectory than Drew Brees at the same stage. Waddle is pretty good, they'll need another playmaker soon. Maybe a WR in the 2025 draft. Brees benefited from a good+ oline and great coach. McDaniel is a possible limiting factor IMO. How many plays did Brees make outside the pocket?

 

[SuperFantasyFootballGuy]

If I am the Dolphins, no way I am extending Tua past Tyreek Hill's contract which expires in 2026. Franchise him a few times if you have to and then trade him away.


Once Tyreek is gone, this guy is going to turn back into a pumpkin.

Maybe. He's on a higher trajectory than Drew Brees at the same stage. Waddle is pretty good, they'll need another playmaker soon. Maybe a WR in the 2025 draft. Brees benefited from a good+ oline and great coach. McDaniel is a possible limiting factor IMO. How many plays did Brees make outside the pocket?

Oh my God, could you imagine if Brees had Tyreek and Jaylen? He would have thrown for 6,000 yards.

 

[SoBeDad]

Oh my God, could you imagine if Brees had Tyreek and Jaylen? He would have thrown for 6,000 yards

Brees had some very good receiving RBs, TEs, and WRs. Tomlinson, Bush, Sproles, Kamara. Gates, Graham, Shockey. Colston, Cooks, Thomas, Moore. Lots of all pros. Plus a HOF coach and several all-pro linemen.

 

[SuperFantasyFootballGuy]

Oh my God, could you imagine if Brees had Tyreek and Jaylen? He would have thrown for 6,000 yards

Brees had some very good receiving RBs, TEs, and WRs. Tomlinson, Bush, Sproles, Kamara. Gates, Graham, Shockey. Colston, Cooks, Thomas, Moore. Lots of all pros. Plus a HOF coach and several all-pro linemen.

Agreed! I'm just saying though in 2011, he had 5,476 passing yards. If you replaced any combination of Marques Colston / Lance Moore / Devery Henderson with Tyreek and Jaylen Waddle, the guy is going for 6,000 yards passing. It's a silly premise, sure, but I believe it. None of those WR ever made the pro bowl and having those guys with a prime Jimmy Graham, it would be like playing Madden.


Anywho, I'll put the pipe down now. Back to Tua Tagowhatever.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Another down note for the Miami Dolphins in 2024 is that you can rig the extensions or contracts so that a very minimal amount counts Year 1 against the cap
Think of it as fudging the numbers but you essentially are coming in way higher than 5th yr option
However, most of it is a signing bonus that can be spread out over many seasons, even beyond the actual contract years as I have come to learn on Spotrac and others
Meaning that Miami didn't really have to lose all these free agents.
Had they extended Tua which they are likely gonna do here soon anyways, they could have taken the $23.5M counting ATC and likely turned it into a lot less.

"I don't even really work here"
That's what makes this so difficult

 

[Gatorman]

Schefter reporting that Tua will be the highest paid NFL player ever
$56M per year on a $280M over 5 years

Not seeing it on his twitter page. Link?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Schefter reporting that Tua will be the highest paid NFL player ever
$56M per year on a $280M over 5 years

Not seeing it on his twitter page. Link?

I might have gotten Fooled
Taking them all down now

 

[rockaction]

Schefter reporting that Tua will be the highest paid NFL player ever
$56M per year on a $280M over 5 years

Not seeing it on his twitter page. Link?

I might have gotten Fooled
Taking them all down now

Damn. I got fooled, too.

 

[QuizGuy66]

Don't like seeing good FBGs fooled like this
Will be interesting to see what the Dolphins do. Always so dicey when you have a QB that has shown flashes but you're never quite sure if they ultimately good enough to be not quite good enough.

QB purgatory is tough...but being in the QB wilderness can be worse.
-QG

 

[msudaisy26]

Don't like seeing good FBGs fooled like this
Will be interesting to see what the Dolphins do. Always so dicey when you have a QB that has shown flashes but you're never quite sure if they ultimately good enough to be not quite good enough.

QB purgatory is tough...but being in the QB wilderness can be worse.
-QG

Most of the time I believe teams in purgatory should blow it up and rebuild or make a really bold move to go for it, but not at the QB position in the NFL. If you have a top 15 guy hold on to that. It is just to difficult to find the next guy unless you are the Packers.