The Myth of the Colts WR3 (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

OK, having banged out a handful of drafts over the last week (including one of my big $$$ local drafts tonight), I continue to be shocked at the love Anthony Gonzalez (WR-IND) is getting.

Tonight, in a 12-team, 18 round, PPR league...Gonzalez went WR43 in the 12th round. I made some joke about the reach and another guy in the league chimed in how this was "VALUE" because "the Colts WR3 is better than a lot of team's WR2." A few other guys proceeded to nod their heads in agreement as though I was the one who missed the boat here.

So upon returning home tonight, I did a little analysis just to make sure I wasn't losing my mind. I wasn't. People are WAY overvaluing that fluke 2004 season when Stokley went for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Manning and the Colts offense have a 9 year body of work to look at, and it's clear that not only was 2004 a fluke, it was MASSIVELY fluky. On average, the Colts WR3 has been unrosterable in typical 10- and 12-team leagues, yet people seem to think otherwise.

I blogged about it tonight, curious to hear your thoughts:

Anthony Gonzalez: The Myth of the Colts WR3

 

[amnesiac]

redraft, yeah, i think it's kinda silly.

personally, i'm drafting Anthony Gonzalez because i think he'll be a solid NFL WR who will be catching passes from Manning in my keeper/dynasty leagues.

 

[Jason Wood]

redraft, yeah, i think it's kinda silly.personally, i'm drafting Anthony Gonzalez because i think he'll be a solid NFL WR who will be catching passes from Manning in my keeper/dynasty leagues.

Keeper/Dynasty is a completely different ballgame.

 

[jagerbomb]

The other thing I've heard goes something like "All it takes is an injury to Harrison or Wayne and his numbers will be huge". Not only is this pretty unlikely given the way those guys play (generally avoiding big hits), but I'm not even really convinced it's true.

 

[prymetyme25]

Alot of people are overlooking the fact that Dallas Clark was hurt that season and does alot of the slot and middle field work. Are maybe I'm wrong?

 

[Biabreakable]

Alot of people are overlooking the fact that Dallas Clark was hurt that season and does alot of the slot and middle field work. Are maybe I'm wrong?

The thing here is that Dallas Clark is always hurt and missing time. Otherwise I think Clark would be in much higher regard than he is.

 

[bentley]

I agree. My GB who always defends every pick he makes as a master stroke no matter what the projections look like was pulling this whole "Colts #3 receiver is a gold mine" crap on me a couple days ago. I love this "Other than 2004, no Colts WR3 has cracked the TOP 50 at the WR position" stat.

 

[Spartans Rule]

I agree fully, and another thing to add...

From that Colts WR3 list:

2001 Reggie Wayne 27 345 - 34.5 86

As a rookie, with a fairly clear shot at being the #2 WR, that's what you got from Reggie Wayne, now considered one of the game's elite.

Does anyone really think that Anthony Gonzalez is more talented than Reggie Wayne, or in better position to perform as a rookie?

I think the learning curve is really being underestimated here.

 

[tombonneau]

I don't like this thread. How dare you interfere with thousands of peoples perception of reality. (!)

 

[Chadstroma]

This year I am not in a re-draft league.

In my dynasty league, I think I got a steal in the 4th round of our 12 team rookie draft with him.

 

[Jason Wood]

Again...dynasty is a much different conversation. In those leagues you're talking about drafting just about any rookie that has potential in future years. I'm talking about drafting him with expectations for THIS season.

 

[WildEyedOne]

OK, having banged out a handful of drafts over the last week (including one of my big $$$ local drafts tonight), I continue to be shocked at the love Anthony Gonzalez (WR-IND) is getting.

Tonight, in a 12-team, 18 round, PPR league...Gonzalez went WR43 in the 12th round. I made some joke about the reach and another guy in the league chimed in how this was "VALUE" because "the Colts WR3 is better than a lot of team's WR2." A few other guys proceeded to nod their heads in agreement as though I was the one who missed the boat here.

So upon returning home tonight, I did a little analysis just to make sure I wasn't losing my mind. I wasn't. People are WAY overvaluing that fluke 2004 season when Stokley went for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Manning and the Colts offense have a 9 year body of work to look at, and it's clear that not only was 2004 a fluke, it was MASSIVELY fluky. On average, the Colts WR3 has been unrosterable in typical 10- and 12-team leagues, yet people seem to think otherwise.

I blogged about it tonight, curious to hear your thoughts:

Anthony Gonzalez: The Myth of the Colts WR3

So where would you value Drew Bennett as the STL WR3?

 

[LHUCKS]

yep, you don't see him on any of my redraft teams. I draft starters.

 

[SSOG]

The other thing I've heard goes something like "All it takes is an injury to Harrison or Wayne and his numbers will be huge". Not only is this pretty unlikely given the way those guys play (generally avoiding big hits), but I'm not even really convinced it's true.

I agree. All it takes is an injury to Harrison or Wayne for the other one to go out of his mind and post numbers reminiscent of Marvelous Marvin in his heydey (1500 plus yards and 12 plus scores). No Colts WR has cracked 100 grabs since Marvin set the NFL record at 143 in 2002. If one of the duo goes down, the other is going to make a serious run at the record again.

 

[Maven]

OK, having banged out a handful of drafts over the last week (including one of my big $$$ local drafts tonight), I continue to be shocked at the love Anthony Gonzalez (WR-IND) is getting.

Tonight, in a 12-team, 18 round, PPR league...Gonzalez went WR43 in the 12th round. I made some joke about the reach and another guy in the league chimed in how this was "VALUE" because "the Colts WR3 is better than a lot of team's WR2." A few other guys proceeded to nod their heads in agreement as though I was the one who missed the boat here.

So upon returning home tonight, I did a little analysis just to make sure I wasn't losing my mind. I wasn't. People are WAY overvaluing that fluke 2004 season when Stokley went for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Manning and the Colts offense have a 9 year body of work to look at, and it's clear that not only was 2004 a fluke, it was MASSIVELY fluky. On average, the Colts WR3 has been unrosterable in typical 10- and 12-team leagues, yet people seem to think otherwise.

I blogged about it tonight, curious to hear your thoughts:

Anthony Gonzalez: The Myth of the Colts WR3

So where would you value Drew Bennett as the STL WR3?

I would think high considering Holt's injuries and Bruce aging.

 

[Britney Spears]

I don't like this thread. How dare you interfere with thousands of peoples perception of reality. (!)

Is that a ######? Seriously?!

 

[nxmehta]

I've seen the same thing- in both of my drafts I saw Gonzalez go off the board WAY too early. Glad I'm not the only one who's disturbed by it...

 

[Chaos Commish]

redraft, yeah, i think it's kinda silly.personally, i'm drafting Anthony Gonzalez because i think he'll be a solid NFL WR who will be catching passes from Manning in my keeper/dynasty leagues.

Keeper/Dynasty is a completely different ballgame.

I've hyped the kid but only based on long-term thinking.

 

[tombonneau]

I don't like this thread. How dare you interfere with thousands of peoples perception of reality. (!)

Is that a ######? Seriously?!

No.

But it is now.

 

[greyone]

Also happened in two drafts this week on my side. Guys started buzzing afterwards. Typical gut drafter in my main league made the pick allowing Devery Henderson, Brandon Marshall and Greg Jennings to fall past him. BTW the guy has only made the playoffs once in 5 years with LT on his team. Its incrdedible how these guys don't learn from their mistakes.

It doesn't make any logical sense. The owners probably will not even drop him until week 8. To save face.

Amazingly the the draft knowledge has vastly improved over one season in my main league. Typical guppy picks were 75% absent!!!!! 10 rbs taken in the 1st round of a 1 keeper league. Usually only 6-8rbs are taken (myself included). With the 8th pick I went steve smith using VBD. I had to shift gears in the 1st and 2nd round. Point of my story is be flexible because the competition is growing and getting smarter because of the internet. Last year 8 guys had magazines. Only 4 out of 12 this year. Sorry to hijack.

Antho Gonzo does not deserve to be picked in 12 teamers using 3wr sets. And is barely a pick in 14 teamers using 2 wrs with a flex.

 

[Homer]

Exactly who CARES who's WR #43 in a redraft league? Picking the guy outside of the top 30 that makes ANY sort of difference this year is a total crapshoot, and there's a damned good chance he won't even be drafted in a "normal" 12 team league anyway. Another example of "sharks" nerding each other out.

 

[Cass Durham]

OK, having banged out a handful of drafts over the last week (including one of my big $$$ local drafts tonight), I continue to be shocked at the love Anthony Gonzalez (WR-IND) is getting.

Tonight, in a 12-team, 18 round, PPR league...Gonzalez went WR43 in the 12th round. I made some joke about the reach and another guy in the league chimed in how this was "VALUE" because "the Colts WR3 is better than a lot of team's WR2." A few other guys proceeded to nod their heads in agreement as though I was the one who missed the boat here.

So upon returning home tonight, I did a little analysis just to make sure I wasn't losing my mind. I wasn't. People are WAY overvaluing that fluke 2004 season when Stokley went for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Manning and the Colts offense have a 9 year body of work to look at, and it's clear that not only was 2004 a fluke, it was MASSIVELY fluky. On average, the Colts WR3 has been unrosterable in typical 10- and 12-team leagues, yet people seem to think otherwise.

I blogged about it tonight, curious to hear your thoughts:

Anthony Gonzalez: The Myth of the Colts WR3

So where would you value Drew Bennett as the STL WR3?

I would think high considering Holt's injuries and Bruce aging.

First off, great post by Wood. I've been wondering the same thing about the Gonzalez love. No value in redrafts IMO. Bennett on the other hand would have value if you thought that Holt's injury was worse than everyone is letting on. As it is right now, he is still being ranked up there with all the rest of the top guys. So, if you think Holt will be fine this season, Bennett would be in the same situation as Gonzalez and not really worth a roster spot in my eyes. Add to the fact that Bennett switched teams and is learning a new system, I would much rather take a flyer on a #2 WR from another team.

 

[pizzatyme]

At this point, I would only consider Gonzo in a redraft if it were a Draft Masters league where best-ball is the rule. He'll have the occasional TD and 80 Rec. Yards, but to think of him as the WR43 is just nonsense.

 

[BoltBacker]

yep, you don't see him on any of my redraft teams. I draft starters.

The only time I prefer a marginal starter over a #3 in a potentially great situation is in best-ball leagues. In the typical 12 team(start 3wr) league even if Gonzales is getting drafted #52 WR that's as the fifth WR on someones roster. Why save that #5 WR spot for guys like Walter/Colbert/Booker/Parker/Price/Jenkins/ANYBODY TEN trots out there on a given sunday???? Is the 2 or 3 points these guys are going to get you if you have an injury on your bye week really that much more valuable than some guy you could have grabbed off the waiver wire???? I don't think so. Me, I'll stash the Gonzales/Furrey's at the end of my bench and if they get a few starts.... GREAT! If not are you really going to live or die on whether Michael Jenkins had a great day that one week when a couple of your good WR's had a bye at the same time? When it comes right down to it you can often find a starting WR on the waiver wire by mid-season anyway on a CLE type team if you really are jonesing for a starter. Or Jureviciucing for a starter as the case may be. One week of mediocre production doesn't out-weight the potential for several weeks of #1 WR production if a guy falls into a starting role on a great offense for WR's(IND/DET especially).I'm sure someone will rush in and say they play in a 32 team league where you can start 6 WR..... well, that's not the norm. Like I said; In your average 12 team - start 3wr league you're better off swinging for the fences with WR5+. I will admit it may depend partially on how much risk you took with your first 3 WR's. Plenty of people seem more than willing to gamble on guys that don't seem healthy(Burres) or guys that haven't proven they can be the #2 WR on an NFL team let alone your fantasy team(Vincent Jackson). I take my WR gambles at WR5 instead of WR2.

 

[BoltBacker]

OK, having banged out a handful of drafts over the last week (including one of my big $$$ local drafts tonight), I continue to be shocked at the love Anthony Gonzalez (WR-IND) is getting.

Tonight, in a 12-team, 18 round, PPR league...Gonzalez went WR43 in the 12th round. I made some joke about the reach and another guy in the league chimed in how this was "VALUE" because "the Colts WR3 is better than a lot of team's WR2." A few other guys proceeded to nod their heads in agreement as though I was the one who missed the boat here.

So upon returning home tonight, I did a little analysis just to make sure I wasn't losing my mind. I wasn't. People are WAY overvaluing that fluke 2004 season when Stokley went for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Manning and the Colts offense have a 9 year body of work to look at, and it's clear that not only was 2004 a fluke, it was MASSIVELY fluky. On average, the Colts WR3 has been unrosterable in typical 10- and 12-team leagues, yet people seem to think otherwise.

I blogged about it tonight, curious to hear your thoughts:

Anthony Gonzalez: The Myth of the Colts WR3

I see you delved deeply into the stats of the #3 WR's over that span but did you pay any attention to the names;Pathon

EG Green

Terrence Wilkins

Reggie Wayne

Qadry Ismail

Stokley

Stokley and Wayne are the only two guys with talent they've had as a #3 WR. They had 3 healthy seasons as the #3 WR between them. The average of those three years blows your projections for Gonzales out of the water. Does how EG Green did as the #3 WR in the IND offense have much bearing on Gonzales is going to do if EG Green just plain stunk? Of course I'd also call the '06 season when Stokley only played in 4 games and IND was forced to play Aaron Moorehead as their WR #3 the biggest single anomaly in your data. And on the subject of Moorehead you say....

"He may not win the WR3 role…As I type this, I’ve see no evidence that Gonzalez is even in the hunt for the WR3 job to open the season. It seems, to me, that veteran Aaron Moorehead is laying claim to that role."

... yet you yourself project Gonzales's meager production to eclipse that of Moorehead this year.

BTW I'm not even a huge advocate of drafting Gonzales in particular, I just think it's silly that a guy like Joe Jurevicius is ranked higher by FBG then a guy like Gonzales even if you ignore the fact Harrison is 35yo. At some point doesn't the 300-1100 yard guy represent a lot better value than the guy that's a lock to get you 400-500 yards?

 

[Jason Wood]

OK, having banged out a handful of drafts over the last week (including one of my big $$$ local drafts tonight), I continue to be shocked at the love Anthony Gonzalez (WR-IND) is getting.

Tonight, in a 12-team, 18 round, PPR league...Gonzalez went WR43 in the 12th round. I made some joke about the reach and another guy in the league chimed in how this was "VALUE" because "the Colts WR3 is better than a lot of team's WR2." A few other guys proceeded to nod their heads in agreement as though I was the one who missed the boat here.

So upon returning home tonight, I did a little analysis just to make sure I wasn't losing my mind. I wasn't. People are WAY overvaluing that fluke 2004 season when Stokley went for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Manning and the Colts offense have a 9 year body of work to look at, and it's clear that not only was 2004 a fluke, it was MASSIVELY fluky. On average, the Colts WR3 has been unrosterable in typical 10- and 12-team leagues, yet people seem to think otherwise.

I blogged about it tonight, curious to hear your thoughts:

Anthony Gonzalez: The Myth of the Colts WR3

So where would you value Drew Bennett as the STL WR3?

If Holt is healthy, Bennett is massively overvalued; and I've said so in some detail:Drew Bennett: Don't Believe the Hype

But if Holt misses time, obviously Bennett becomes a starter for a pass happy team with a very good QB at the helm. Holt's knee, by the way, is why Isaac Bruce may be the most valuable player on the draft board this year.

 

[djcolts]

"He may not win the WR3 role…As I type this, I’ve see no evidence that Gonzalez is even in the hunt for the WR3 job to open the season. It seems, to me, that veteran Aaron Moorehead is laying claim to that role."

Moorehead is not going to be the #3 - he can't play the slot receiver worth a darn, and Gonzalez can. If Moorehead has to play, then Wayne has to play the slot, and that works to the disadvantage of the Colts offense. No way Moorehead is the #3 for that reason.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I partially disagree.

It turns on whether you think Indy is trying to recapture the success they had with a healthy Brandon Stokley or not. The people high on Gonzalez are people who think Indy is trying to re-create what they had in 2004/2005.

I'm not sure anyone here can definitively say that is the case or he was drafted to take over for Harrison when he is gone. 1st round WRs are generally picked to be starters, so I don't see anything wrong with believing they are aiming for the former.

As far as a re-draft, I don't expect much out of him this year (500ish and 4). I would definitely suspect Indy does not pass to their RBs and TEs as much as they did last year. Certainly AGonz is better than Aaron Moorehead (#3 in WR targets last year at 16) and will command the ball more.

 

[trogg78]

I agree its stupid to draft Anthony Gonzalez because he's Indy's WR#. I just think he will do well because he is a consistent route tunner with good hands. I can see him being very useful to Manning on 3rd down. I dont think he is a fantasy WR3 yet...but may be a good bye week fill in. Anyone using him as a starter on a fantasy team this year is making a big mistake. In dynasty leagues he is nothing but upside.

 

[BoltBacker]

As far as a re-draft, I don't expect much out of him this year (500ish and 4). I would definitely suspect Indy does not pass to their RBs and TEs as much as they did last year. Certainly AGonz is better than Aaron Moorehead (#3 in WR targets last year at 16) and will command the ball more.

That's a point I was going to make in my post but decided against it. With Glenn retiring and a rookie LT it's hard for me to believe a TE or RB isn't kept in to protect the franchise much more often this season. Sure it's speculation and we won't know until the season unfolds but it's pretty logical speculation.I think your 500/4 is a pretty realistic # IF Wayne doesn't miss any starts and a 35yo Harrison doesn't miss a start or slow down at all. I'd be interested to hear the stat how often two starting WR's get all 32 starts in a season.

 

[Big Sug]

he needs an injury to Harrison, Wayne or D. Clark to become startable.

They do put a player in the slot all the time, and right now that player is Clark. I assume they'd go to a lot of 3 WR looks if Clark misses time.

 

[BigRed]

OK, having banged out a handful of drafts over the last week (including one of my big $$$ local drafts tonight), I continue to be shocked at the love Anthony Gonzalez (WR-IND) is getting.Tonight, in a 12-team, 18 round, PPR league...Gonzalez went WR43 in the 12th round. I made some joke about the reach and another guy in the league chimed in how this was "VALUE" because "the Colts WR3 is better than a lot of team's WR2." A few other guys proceeded to nod their heads in agreement as though I was the one who missed the boat here.So upon returning home tonight, I did a little analysis just to make sure I wasn't losing my mind. I wasn't. People are WAY overvaluing that fluke 2004 season when Stokley went for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Manning and the Colts offense have a 9 year body of work to look at, and it's clear that not only was 2004 a fluke, it was MASSIVELY fluky. On average, the Colts WR3 has been unrosterable in typical 10- and 12-team leagues, yet people seem to think otherwise.I blogged about it tonight, curious to hear your thoughts:

I think you're stating the incredibly obvious, but remember stupidity in a draft is a good thing, long as it's not coming from you. ESPECIALLY in a big money league.

 

[moderated]

redraft he's worthless. Dynasty he has some potential.

 

[cstu]

Gonzalez is going too high, but at some point the Colts will suffer a WR injury. He's worth owning in redraft, but he should be going much later because his value is only because of injury - like owning Brian Leonard.

 

[ßlue Meanie]

nice work wood.

i agree and am baffled by the love for anthony gonzalez. i think he has some nice upside longterm with harrison getting up there and may be a nice wr#2 for wayne in a couple years. but where he is going now is fairly insane.

 

[BigRed]

Gonzalez is going too high, but at some point the Colts will suffer a WR injury. He's worth owning in redraft,

Yeah I forgot how Wayne and Harrison are injury-prone. The only way he's worth owning in a re-draft is in VERY large leagues.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

OK, having banged out a handful of drafts over the last week (including one of my big $$ local drafts tonight), I continue to be shocked at the love Anthony Gonzalez (WR-IND) is getting.

Tonight, in a 12-team, 18 round, PPR league...Gonzalez went WR43 in the 12th round. I made some joke about the reach and another guy in the league chimed in how this was "VALUE" because "the Colts WR3 is better than a lot of team's WR2." A few other guys proceeded to nod their heads in agreement as though I was the one who missed the boat here.

So upon returning home tonight, I did a little analysis just to make sure I wasn't losing my mind. I wasn't. People are WAY overvaluing that fluke 2004 season when Stokley went for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Manning and the Colts offense have a 9 year body of work to look at, and it's clear that not only was 2004 a fluke, it was MASSIVELY fluky. On average, the Colts WR3 has been unrosterable in typical 10- and 12-team leagues, yet people seem to think otherwise.

I blogged about it tonight, curious to hear your thoughts:

Anthony Gonzalez: The Myth of the Colts WR3

I don't see these two statements as being consistent. If he were going in the 6th or 7th round (like some rookies in the past) I would agree. A 12th rounder and it's like... that's not really reaching too much for a rookie WR with upside. Hard to say that was a horrible pick really.

 

[kensat30]

Did Anthony Gonzalez go for 200 yards and 3 TDs in last year's playoffs? Didn't think so.

 

[switz]

OK, having banged out a handful of drafts over the last week (including one of my big $$$ local drafts tonight), I continue to be shocked at the love Anthony Gonzalez (WR-IND) is getting.

Tonight, in a 12-team, 18 round, PPR league...Gonzalez went WR43 in the 12th round. I made some joke about the reach and another guy in the league chimed in how this was "VALUE" because "the Colts WR3 is better than a lot of team's WR2." A few other guys proceeded to nod their heads in agreement as though I was the one who missed the boat here.

So upon returning home tonight, I did a little analysis just to make sure I wasn't losing my mind. I wasn't. People are WAY overvaluing that fluke 2004 season when Stokley went for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Manning and the Colts offense have a 9 year body of work to look at, and it's clear that not only was 2004 a fluke, it was MASSIVELY fluky. On average, the Colts WR3 has been unrosterable in typical 10- and 12-team leagues, yet people seem to think otherwise.

I blogged about it tonight, curious to hear your thoughts:

Anthony Gonzalez: The Myth of the Colts WR3

I see you delved deeply into the stats of the #3 WR's over that span but did you pay any attention to the names;Pathon

EG Green

Terrence Wilkins

Reggie Wayne

Qadry Ismail

Stokley

Stokley and Wayne are the only two guys with talent they've had as a #3 WR. They had 3 healthy seasons as the #3 WR between them. The average of those three years blows your projections for Gonzales out of the water. Does how EG Green did as the #3 WR in the IND offense have much bearing on Gonzales is going to do if EG Green just plain stunk? Of course I'd also call the '06 season when Stokley only played in 4 games and IND was forced to play Aaron Moorehead as their WR #3 the biggest single anomaly in your data. And on the subject of Moorehead you say....

you say they have no talent now, but...Jerome Pathon - pick #32

Anthony Gonzales - pick #32

Ismail and Green were both second round picks.

Basically - when they were drafted, most people likely thought they were as talented as you think Gonzales is now.

 

[BoltBacker]

OK, having banged out a handful of drafts over the last week (including one of my big $$ local drafts tonight), I continue to be shocked at the love Anthony Gonzalez (WR-IND) is getting.

Tonight, in a 12-team, 18 round, PPR league...Gonzalez went WR43 in the 12th round. I made some joke about the reach and another guy in the league chimed in how this was "VALUE" because "the Colts WR3 is better than a lot of team's WR2." A few other guys proceeded to nod their heads in agreement as though I was the one who missed the boat here.

So upon returning home tonight, I did a little analysis just to make sure I wasn't losing my mind. I wasn't. People are WAY overvaluing that fluke 2004 season when Stokley went for 1000 yards and 10 TDs. Manning and the Colts offense have a 9 year body of work to look at, and it's clear that not only was 2004 a fluke, it was MASSIVELY fluky. On average, the Colts WR3 has been unrosterable in typical 10- and 12-team leagues, yet people seem to think otherwise.

I blogged about it tonight, curious to hear your thoughts:

Anthony Gonzalez: The Myth of the Colts WR3

I don't see these two statements as being consistent. If he were going in the 6th or 7th round (like some rookies in the past) I would agree. A 12th rounder and it's like... that's not really reaching too much for a rookie WR with upside. Hard to say that was a horrible pick really.

I don't think the 12 round bothers him so much as WR 43(which I agree with is pretty high.... no way I'd take him that high). FBG has him ranked WR 70 right now but I'd call that too low. Depends on what type of risk/reward you are looking for in your backups though.Like cstu said, it's a Brian Leonard type choice. I'll take guys like Gonzales/Leonard/Turner on my bench because there's a chance they COULD be my #1 at some point for multiple games over guys like Drew Carter or Marty Booker who I'll only start as a mediocre 1 week bye/injury fill-in.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

I don't totally dissagree with your reasoning, but how many of those Indy WR3s were first round draft picks?

You can't count on injuries, but neitehr can you deny that Marvelous Marvin is 35 years old.

Manning is the most prolofic passer in the league.

The 12th round of a 12 team league might not be a great bargain, but I wouldn't consider that much of a reach.

I don't mind saying that I drafted him in 3 leagues, 13th and 14th rds (12 team) and 14th round (10 team).

Who are 3 wr's selected after him (43rd) that you had rated higher?

 

[BoltBacker]

you say they have no talent now, but...Jerome Pathon - pick #32Anthony Gonzales - pick #32Ismail and Green were both second round picks.Basically - when they were drafted, most people likely thought they were as talented as you think Gonzales is now.

That's a very fair point.I still say that we know it turned those guys stunk, and they stunk as the #3 WR in the IND offense. With Gonzales we don't know if he stinks yet.

 

[BoltBacker]

Who are 3 wr's selected after him (43rd) that you had rated higher?

I don't know where Woods has Gonzales ranked(it's outside his top 60) but I do know he's got the likes of Roddy White, Bryant Johnson, Matt Jones, my favorite Joe Jurevicius, Dwayne Jarrett and Marty Booker ranked higher. To me those guys offer almost all the same downside as with Gonzales without the possibility of hitting the jack-pot and getting a #1/#2 WR if there's an injury to Wayne/Harrison.

 

[switz]

you say they have no talent now, but...

Jerome Pathon - pick #32

Anthony Gonzales - pick #32

Ismail and Green were both second round picks.

Basically - when they were drafted, most people likely thought they were as talented as you think Gonzales is now.

That's a very fair point.I still say that we know it turned those guys stunk, and they stunk as the #3 WR in the IND offense. With Gonzales we don't know if he stinks yet.

Agreed - but with Indy WR #3 history (and Indy's history at drafting WRs) I would say he's currently very overrated.

 

[cstu]

Gonzalez is going too high, but at some point the Colts will suffer a WR injury. He's worth owning in redraft,

Yeah I forgot how Wayne and Harrison are injury-prone. The only way he's worth owning in a re-draft is in VERY large leagues.

Colts' WR owner, eh? I never said they were injury-prone, but the reality is that WR's do get hurt and Harrison is 35. How many WR's can you get at the end of drafts who would automatically be solid #3's if there's any injuries? If Gonzalez did become the Colts' #2 starter, I think he'd put up numbers somewhere between Wayne's 2002 and 2003 seasons. Not exactly great but with much more potential than most WR's you draft in the 40+ range.

 

[cstu]

you say they have no talent now, but...

Jerome Pathon - pick #32

Anthony Gonzales - pick #32

Ismail and Green were both second round picks.

Basically - when they were drafted, most people likely thought they were as talented as you think Gonzales is now.

That's a very fair point.I still say that we know it turned those guys stunk, and they stunk as the #3 WR in the IND offense. With Gonzales we don't know if he stinks yet.

Agreed - but with Indy WR #3 history (and Indy's history at drafting WRs) I would say he's currently very overrated.

The Colts haven't taken a WR as high as Gonzalez (besides Wayne) since Pathon in 1998. He was actually a decent receiver until injuries did him in.

 

[BoltBacker]

Gonzalez is going too high, but at some point the Colts will suffer a WR injury. He's worth owning in redraft,

Yeah I forgot how Wayne and Harrison are injury-prone. The only way he's worth owning in a re-draft is in VERY large leagues.

Colts' WR owner, eh? I never said they were injury-prone, but the reality is that WR's do get hurt and Harrison is 35. How many WR's can you get at the end of drafts who would automatically be solid #3's if there's any injuries? If Gonzalez did become the Colts' #2 starter, I think he'd put up numbers somewhere between Wayne's 2002 and 2003 seasons. Not exactly great but with much more potential than most WR's you draft in the 40+ range.

... but Joe Jurevicius is a starter right NOW! We don't have to wait for an injury to get his 500 yards(31 yards per game).DISCLAIMER: Joe will finish the season at the age of 33 and he's only eclipsed that 500 mark twice in his career so I'm in no way implying he's a lock to even get 31yards per game.... just talking about his upside.

 

[shadow2k]

2004 was the year that the NFL changed the rules regarding contact between D-Backs and WR's. EVERYONE's stats were boosted that year. Teams eventually adjusted, but it's why you don't really see any shut down corners anymore. Because they can't even look at a guy funny without getting flagged for it these days.

In 2004, NINE QB's threw for 27+ TD's. That's about the avg number of QB's who throw for 20+ TD's in any other given year. Check out the numbers. Same thing with WR's...10 WR's had 10+ TD's in 2004, but only five last year? Were the WR's in 2004 that much better? We're talking three years here. It's that teams have adjusted to the rule change. Peyton is NEVER going to throw 49TD's again, and A.Gonzalez is a WW scrub unless you're in a league of 14+, or play in a dynasty format.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

redraft, yeah, i think it's kinda silly.personally, i'm drafting Anthony Gonzalez because i think he'll be a solid NFL WR who will be catching passes from Manning in my keeper/dynasty leagues.

Keeper/Dynasty is a completely different ballgame.

Precisely.In our rookie/veteran free agent draft I snagged him with the twelth pick. My thinking was and still is long term. Marvin is 35 so Reggie should slide into the #1 WR position in a few years, if not sooner. Marvin might dip back to #2 status but I think in two and half years the transition will take place. I figured even if he won the starter role as the slot WR I couldn't count on him due to the transitory nature of the Colt offense. You never know who is going to be highlighted. I had Dallas Clark for a few years but traded him due to frustration that he'd blow up without any notice and then turtle for over a month. I never could count on him and ended up guessing/misguessing on when to start/sit him. I traded him after he had a huge game and never looked back but Gonzo is a different story. I'm hanging onto him.Oh and I heard he's from my home town after I got him but now that I know that, I'm hanging onto him till the bitter end.

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

Who are 3 wr's selected after him (43rd) that you had rated higher?

I don't know where Woods has Gonzales ranked(it's outside his top 60) but I do know he's got the likes of Roddy White, Bryant Johnson, Matt Jones, my favorite Joe Jurevicius, Dwayne Jarrett and Marty Booker ranked higher. To me those guys offer almost all the same downside as with Gonzales without the possibility of hitting the jack-pot and getting a #1/#2 WR if there's an injury to Wayne/Harrison.

Couldn't agree more