The Myth of the 'Injury Prone' Player (1 Viewer)

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I've wondered for a long time if there's really such a thing as a player who is 'injury prone.' Since I couldn't find any information on the subject, and no one was able to point me to anything, I decided to take a look for myself.

I started with a RB database I put together for another project I worked on this past winter and spring. So this dataset is based on every season in the career of all RBs that've had a top 25 finish after 1995.

To get rid of any confusion that might occur due to a player not starting early in his career, I eliminated any seasons that preceded the RBs' first season with 200+ touches. Likewise I eliminated all seasons after the RB was 30. All RBs are injury prone after a certain point (aka 'old'), and I wanted to isolate the effect of previous injuries on the likelihood of future injury.

After cutting those seasons out of the dataset, I had 92 RBs and 360 seasons.

Here's the basic data:

The first set of numbers are the games played in year N-1, the second number is the average number of games played the following season.

15-16/14.25 (226 records)

13-14/13.98 (66 records)

08-12/13.56 (50 records)

01-07/13.61 (18 records)

I think that alone is fairly significant information debunking the idea that some players are injury prone. If a player misses more than three games the previous year his average games missed the following season only increases by a bit over one half game.

And I'm willing to bet (though I didn't check) that most or all of that small increase is due to games missed at the start of the next season. A la Kevin Jones this year. In other words, the games missed are due to the same injury.

From the same data...

37% of fantasy startable RBs in their prime suffer an injury or injuries during a season which lead them to miss more than one game. That implies that based on chance alone:

-- one in seven RBs would suffer injuries resulting in 2+ games missed in consecutive seasons

-- one in four RBs would suffer injuries resulting in 2+ games missed at least twice in three seasons

The truth is that NFL RBs play an incredibly violent sport, where most of them will eventually be injured. The exact nature and timing of those injuries is mostly random.

For the true propeller-heads out there...

Games played the previous season for fantasy startable RBs in their prime correlates to games played the following season at .07, and the R^2 between games played in the two seasons is .002. It's virtually irrelevant.

Feel free to point out any problems with the analysis. I did this pretty quickly and spotted a few minor things myself, but I don't think they change the overall findings.

 

[AB in DC]

Interesting and pretty straightforward. Nicely done.

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Nice job.

 

[Buffalo0987]

Yep nice.

 

[wannabee]

looks good, thanks.

 

[Family Matters]

wdcrob,

Thanks for doing this!

 

[Rev]

I'm not a stats guy but have a simple question about this premise (thanks for the thoughtful work by the way):

Does the 1/2 game difference (between players who miss multiple games in consecutive seasons and those who don't) really tell the tale? Isn't it obscured by the fact that a small handful of injury prone players wouldn't offset the data to a significant degree?

Or in other words, doesn't this analysis simply prove that most players aren't injury prone, leaving open the possibility of a modest amount of KJ's & Fragil Freds who simply can't stay healthy? I would think that the mere incidence of players who have already proven to be injury prone (having 2 or more consecutive seasons of missing significant time) is proof in and of itself. Also, if a player misses alot of time every other season, I would still consider that injury prone.

Just thinking out loud...

 

[Bri]

The problem I think with your study is you discuss individual RBs in your hypothesis yet analyze the league's RBs as a whole.

There's no disputing that Fragile Freddy "earned" that nickname nor that he was extremely durable after. You need to figure out how you can make it show that. Singling players out can be difficult so good luck, I just think ya need to keep that in mind.

 

[Futeki]

I'm not a stats guy but have a simple question about this premise (thanks for the thoughtful work by the way):

Does the 1/2 game difference (between players who miss multiple games in consecutive seasons and those who don't) really tell the tale? Isn't it obscured by the fact that a small handful of injury prone players wouldn't offset the data to a significant degree?

Or in other words, doesn't this analysis simply prove that most players aren't injury prone, leaving open the possibility of a modest amount of KJ's & Fragil Freds who simply can't stay healthy? I would think that the mere incidence of players who have already proven to be injury prone (having 2 or more consecutive seasons of missing significant time) is proof in and of itself. Also, if a player misses alot of time every other season, I would still consider that injury prone.

Just thinking out loud...

This was my thoughts, too. The injury prone players are few enough that they get lost in the data. Their significant games missed are lost in the averages.Yes, everyone gets injured. However, certain people are indeed more inclined to become injured. To say anything otherwise indicates you have not played competitive sports.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

The thing to keep in mind here is that injuries the previous season would correlate to injuries the next season under both the scenarios you guys are asking about. And there's virtually no correlation.

My stats knowledge is hardly exhaustive, but I think that a handful of injury prone players would show up in the R-squared at least a little bit in a sample of 92 players.

The actual prediction for games the next season was...

13.11 + .069 per game played in N-1. T-stat on the .069 of 1.36.

So there's an effect, but it's very small. And again, I think probably explained by situations like Kevin Jones this year.

The better question is: are fantasy startable RBs in their prime representative of all skill position players. I suspect they are since they probably absorb more abuse than anyone else, but YMMV.

And Bri...to address your Q more directly...these numbers are comparing games played from year to year for the same player. So if Chris Brown played 12 games in year N-1, the year N total is also for Chris Brown. Provided Brown had already had a season with 200 carries and wasn't yet 30 years old.

 

[3C's]

I got this from a good source. Ben Roethlisberger is injury prone.

 

[Synthesizer]

My simple theory on this topic (no stats to back it up, just a gut feeling).... every player at every position has a chance to get injured during the year (let's say 20%). Some players have a slightly higher chance of getting injured (let's say 30%). That difference in percentages is not enough for me to avoid "injury prone" players.

 

[Spartans Rule]

My simple theory on this topic (no stats to back it up, just a gut feeling).... every player at every position has a chance to get injured during the year (let's say 20%). Some players have a slightly higher chance of getting injured (let's say 30%). That difference in percentages is not enough for me to avoid "injury prone" players.

Your gut feeling is pretty accurate, according to Doug Drinen.Drinen study on injury risk from 2001

 

[Synthesizer]

My simple theory on this topic (no stats to back it up, just a gut feeling).... every player at every position has a chance to get injured during the year (let's say 20%). Some players have a slightly higher chance of getting injured (let's say 30%). That difference in percentages is not enough for me to avoid "injury prone" players.

Your gut feeling is pretty accurate, according to Doug Drinen.Drinen study on injury risk from 2001

Very cool. Thanks for the link.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Excellent link. Wish I'd seen that before I started.

I still think a big chunk of the added injury risk the year after a player misses games is actually a measure of games missed at the start of the next year due to the injury the previous year.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Excellent link. Wish I'd seen that before I started.I still think a big chunk of the added injury risk the year after a player misses games is actually a measure of games missed at the start of the next year due to the injury the previous year.

You may be right on that - Drinen did point out that he didn't make a lot of extra effort to weed out other factors that could skew the data a bit.Regardless of exactly where the truth lies, I think it's safe to say injury risk is overestimated by the average FF player.

 

[Doug Drinen]

Excellent link. Wish I'd seen that before I started.I still think a big chunk of the added injury risk the year after a player misses games is actually a measure of games missed at the start of the next year due to the injury the previous year.

You may be right on that - Drinen did point out that he didn't make a lot of extra effort to weed out other factors that could skew the data a bit.

FWIW, a couple of years later, I tightened it up a bit and got similar results.

 

[nygiants56]

Excellent link. Wish I'd seen that before I started.I still think a big chunk of the added injury risk the year after a player misses games is actually a measure of games missed at the start of the next year due to the injury the previous year.

You may be right on that - Drinen did point out that he didn't make a lot of extra effort to weed out other factors that could skew the data a bit.Regardless of exactly where the truth lies, I think it's safe to say injury risk is overestimated by the average FF player.

maybe, but, its VERY hard to follow that notion with guys like Fraud Taylor, Robert Smith , McNabb, Blair Thomas, Jeremy Shockey, Chris Chandelier, Mandarich, Mike Westbrook, Tatum Bell , Chrissy Brown, playing in the NFL.Steve Young and Aikman KEPT getting concussions. Pennington's should keeps bothering him, and requires constant attention. Robert Smith had the weakest ankles of any human being in the history of the world, Chrissy Chandelier has a scrambled egg for a brain with all the concussions he's suffered..David Boston was as injury prone as any guy to come down the pike, etc.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Wouldn't this be more accurate to track guys that missed games more than one year in a row? In other words, pretty much every RB is going to get hurt at some point. But a guy that gets hurt two years in a row starts to throw up red flags IMO. So for guys that miss games two years in a row, what does that mean for the 3rd year or the 4th year?

And I think that TYPE of injury often matters too. QBs with shoulder injuries can recurring problems. Guys with turf toe or bone spurs tend to have recurring problems. And lots of guys with lots of muscle pulls and tears seem to have recurring injuries.

Guys with broken bones tend to heal up and not necessarily have recurring injuries.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Wouldn't this be more accurate to track guys that missed games more than one year in a row? In other words, pretty much every RB is going to get hurt at some point. But a guy that gets hurt two years in a row starts to throw up red flags IMO. So for guys that miss games two years in a row, what does that mean for the 3rd year or the 4th year? And I think that TYPE of injury often matters too. QBs with shoulder injuries can recurring problems. Guys with turf toe or bone spurs tend to have recurring problems. And lots of guys with lots of muscle pulls and tears seem to have recurring injuries. Guys with broken bones tend to heal up and not necessarily have recurring injuries.

 

[AB in DC]

Excellent link. Wish I'd seen that before I started.I still think a big chunk of the added injury risk the year after a player misses games is actually a measure of games missed at the start of the next year due to the injury the previous year.

One way to look at this is to see the correlation of GP in year x to GP in year x-2. If you are correct, the slight added risk should go away.I also agree with earlier posters that there may be a very small number of truly injury-prone players that account for the difference, but I don't think that truly contradicts your conclusions.

 

[renesauz]

I argued in another thread that the term "Injury prone" is grossly over-used in FF circles.

There are players with chronic problems (A QB w/ multiple concussions) that are more likely to repeat then another player is to have the same problem (FOR EX: Every concussion recieved INCREASES the risk of a subsequent concussion).

All too often players are labeled "injury prone" when they have completely unrelated and NON-REPETITIVE injuries in a relatively short period.

McNabb is a perfect example this year. He's missed significant time 3 times in five years, and is now "injury prone" according to most FBG's, and has been moved absurdly low on many draft charts. YET: His injuries were unrelated, and not of the repetitious type. I'll gladly scoop him up in the fifth or sixth and laugh all the way to the bank!

Repetitive type injuries include:

Concussions

pulled hamstrings and groins

Achilles tendon problems

SOME knee problems

SOME shoulder problems

Random(non-repetitive type) injuries include:

sports hernias

broken bones

 

[Rev]

I argued in another thread that the term "Injury prone" is grossly over-used in FF circles.

There are players with chronic problems (A QB w/ multiple concussions) that are more likely to repeat then another player is to have the same problem (FOR EX: Every concussion recieved INCREASES the risk of a subsequent concussion).

All too often players are labeled "injury prone" when they have completely unrelated and NON-REPETITIVE injuries in a relatively short period.

McNabb is a perfect example this year. He's missed significant time 3 times in five years, and is now "injury prone" according to most FBG's, and has been moved absurdly low on many draft charts. YET: His injuries were unrelated, and not of the repetitious type. I'll gladly scoop him up in the fifth or sixth and laugh all the way to the bank!

Repetitive type injuries include:

Concussions

pulled hamstrings and groins

Achilles tendon problems

SOME knee problems

SOME shoulder problems

Random(non-repetitive type) injuries include:

sports hernias

broken bones

This could be, but I would argue that some body types (Roy Williams, Mewelde Moore, maybe TO) are built in such a way that their joints or muscles get tweaked with moderate regularity, so that even if they do plan, they are limited and hampered more often than the average Joe. Some guys just plain never get injured, and it's hard to ignore the difference, even if the injured guys have multiple, unrelated injuries.

 

[renesauz]

I argued in another thread that the term "Injury prone" is grossly over-used in FF circles.

There are players with chronic problems (A QB w/ multiple concussions) that are more likely to repeat then another player is to have the same problem (FOR EX: Every concussion recieved INCREASES the risk of a subsequent concussion).

All too often players are labeled "injury prone" when they have completely unrelated and NON-REPETITIVE injuries in a relatively short period.

McNabb is a perfect example this year. He's missed significant time 3 times in five years, and is now "injury prone" according to most FBG's, and has been moved absurdly low on many draft charts. YET: His injuries were unrelated, and not of the repetitious type. I'll gladly scoop him up in the fifth or sixth and laugh all the way to the bank!

Repetitive type injuries include:

Concussions

pulled hamstrings and groins

Achilles tendon problems

SOME knee problems

SOME shoulder problems

Random(non-repetitive type) injuries include:

sports hernias

broken bones

This could be, but I would argue that some body types (Roy Williams, Mewelde Moore, maybe TO) are built in such a way that their joints or muscles get tweaked with moderate regularity, so that even if they do plan, they are limited and hampered more often than the average Joe. Some guys just plain never get injured, and it's hard to ignore the difference, even if the injured guys have multiple, unrelated injuries.

That's probably true, but what I mean is that many players are labeled as injury prone far too quickly based on the unrelated injuries. Often, when their careers are over and you look back on their career, you realize that they didn't miss any more games then the "normal" player at their position, they just missed them closer together.

 

[waylander]

From what I've read, it seems that the data is pointing more towards certain injuries that can lead to missed games over multiple seasons. Like the Chad Pennington shoulder.

However, there are still the Chris Browns who have missed for a multitude of seemingly unrelated injuries.

 

[stevegamer]

Yeah, but the RB Chris Brown isn't really injury-prone; the ex-Giants 3B Chris Brown could get hurt sleeping.

There are a very few guys who just get injured, repeatedly. They often are out of whatever league they are in fairly soon.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

There are a very few guys who just get injured, repeatedly. They often are out of whatever league they are in fairly soon.

This is true. Those players are called...'unlucky.'

 

[gregjcross]

My simple theory on this topic (no stats to back it up, just a gut feeling).... every player at every position has a chance to get injured during the year (let's say 20%). Some players have a slightly higher chance of getting injured (let's say 30%). That difference in percentages is not enough for me to avoid "injury prone" players.

the simple theory is correct, i wonder if 20% are gutted by end of training camp. Now you can apply that to the top 50 forecasted players, that 33% are going down and see how that affects backups. This is why depth can be huge and free agent signings during the season are half the work of winning fantasy games.

 

[Raider Nation]

I argued in another thread that the term "Injury prone" is grossly over-used in FF circles.

There are players with chronic problems (A QB w/ multiple concussions) that are more likely to repeat then another player is to have the same problem (FOR EX: Every concussion recieved INCREASES the risk of a subsequent concussion).

All too often players are labeled "injury prone" when they have completely unrelated and NON-REPETITIVE injuries in a relatively short period.

McNabb is a perfect example this year. He's missed significant time 3 times in five years, and is now "injury prone" according to most FBG's, and has been moved absurdly low on many draft charts. YET: His injuries were unrelated, and not of the repetitious type. I'll gladly scoop him up in the fifth or sixth and laugh all the way to the bank!

Repetitive type injuries include:

Concussions

pulled hamstrings and groins

Achilles tendon problems

SOME knee problems

SOME shoulder problems

Random(non-repetitive type) injuries include:

sports hernias

broken bones

I hear what you're saying, but I think we're probably dealing in semantics.To you, a player who has "non-repetitive" injuries should not be classified as injury-prone. To me, he would. The guy who has the constant nagging hamstring which costs him games here and there (Donte Stallworth comes to mind) would not be injury-prone, but rather has a constant, isolated nuisance.

Does that make any sense whatsoever? It's hard to convey what I'm thinking at this hour.

But however you want to phrase it, I'm scared to death of drafting McNabb again. He burned me each of the past two seasons.

 

[Willowdoc]

There are certain injuries that do recur. Speed guys like Stallworth and Moss (and sprinters who race in world class 100 sprints) are going to have more hamstring injuries, because the nature of what they do increases the tension on the muscles. Its a medical fact that having one concussion increases your risk for another concussion. But most injuries suffered by football players are not this way. The most important example in 2007 is Frank Gore - he has suffered cartilige damage, ligament damage and bone damage in three separate instances. He's called "injury prone". There is no reason from his previous injuries to expect that he has a greater risk of injury then any other running back. So if its 1 in 5 and by bad luck he has an injury all those who call him injury prone will say "see, I told you so", but it will be just bad luck that he has another injury. The one caveat here is that Frank Gore loves contact which may in fact increase his injury risk slightly. But you have to project players who are healthy on the first day of the season as if they will stay healthy. You may lower their ranking because of how you perceive their increased risk, but fantasy football championships, like football itself is not won by the risk adverse.

 

[Raider Nation]

There are certain injuries that do recur. Speed guys like Stallworth and Moss (and sprinters who race in world class 100 sprints) are going to have more hamstring injuries, because the nature of what they do increases the tension on the muscles. Its a medical fact that having one concussion increases your risk for another concussion. But most injuries suffered by football players are not this way. The most important example in 2007 is Frank Gore - he has suffered cartilige damage, ligament damage and bone damage in three separate instances. He's called "injury prone". There is no reason from his previous injuries to expect that he has a greater risk of injury then any other running back. So if its 1 in 5 and by bad luck he has an injury all those who call him injury prone will say "see, I told you so", but it will be just bad luck that he has another injury. The one caveat here is that Frank Gore loves contact which may in fact increase his injury risk slightly. But you have to project players who are healthy on the first day of the season as if they will stay healthy. You may lower their ranking because of how you perceive their increased risk, but fantasy football championships, like football itself is not won by the risk adverse.

Excellent post!

 

[PatytonsGhost]

How bout we have an all Injury Draft. FBG's draft their starting FF players who they think will get injured during the season. The person who has the most games missed due to injury will win the title of best INJURY PRONE PREDICTOR... BTW i would like to see this myth correctly addressed although i know its difficult

Let me start They should be starting and at least #2 on the depth chart excluding QB, There are already some Injury prone players likely too miss time so im mostly going to include players that have a good chance to stay or get injured..

QB.Trent Green

QB Pennington

RB Kevin Jones

RB Portis

RB Frank Gore

WR Darell Jackson

WR Joe Horn

WR Terry Glenn

TE Kellen Winslow

TE Todd Heap

 

[Willowdoc]

How bout we have an all Injury Draft. FBG's draft their starting FF players who they think will get injured during the season. The person who has the most games missed due to injury will win the title of best INJURY PRONE PREDICTOR... BTW i would like to see this myth correctly addressed although i know its difficultLet me start They should be starting and at least #2 on the depth chart excluding QB, There are already some Injury prone players likely too miss time so im mostly going to include players that have a good chance to stay or get injured.. QB.Trent GreenQB PenningtonRB Kevin JonesRB PortisRB Frank GoreWR Darell JacksonWR Joe HornWR Terry Glenn TE Kellen Winslow TE Todd Heap

Lets see 5 of your choices are over 30. Two more start the season already injured (jones and portis). The only two players you list who would not be considered risks for other reasons are Gore and Heap (and I don't know enough about Heap and his injury history to make a judgement). Not exactly proof of a theory of injury proneness.

 

[PatytonsGhost]

How bout we have an all Injury Draft. FBG's draft their starting FF players who they think will get injured during the season. The person who has the most games missed due to injury will win the title of best INJURY PRONE PREDICTOR... BTW i would like to see this myth correctly addressed although i know its difficultLet me start They should be starting and at least #2 on the depth chart excluding QB, There are already some Injury prone players likely too miss time so im mostly going to include players that have a good chance to stay or get injured.. QB.Trent GreenQB PenningtonRB Kevin JonesRB PortisRB Frank GoreWR Darell JacksonWR Joe HornWR Terry Glenn TE Kellen Winslow TE Todd Heap

Lets see 5 of your choices are over 30. Two more start the season already injured (jones and portis). The only two players you list who would not be considered risks for other reasons are Gore and Heap (and I don't know enough about Heap and his injury history to make a judgement). Not exactly proof of a theory of injury proneness.

All these players I have listed per news have them starting this season except Kevin Jones, re read my post, its supposed to be your evaluation of who you think will be injured this year. Am I confusing you ?

 

[CalBear]

Excellent link. Wish I'd seen that before I started.I still think a big chunk of the added injury risk the year after a player misses games is actually a measure of games missed at the start of the next year due to the injury the previous year.

You may be right on that - Drinen did point out that he didn't make a lot of extra effort to weed out other factors that could skew the data a bit.Regardless of exactly where the truth lies, I think it's safe to say injury risk is overestimated by the average FF player.

maybe, but, its VERY hard to follow that notion with guys like Fraud Taylor, Robert Smith , McNabb, Blair Thomas, Jeremy Shockey, Chris Chandelier, Mandarich, Mike Westbrook, Tatum Bell , Chrissy Brown, playing in the NFL.Steve Young and Aikman KEPT getting concussions. Pennington's should keeps bothering him, and requires constant attention. Robert Smith had the weakest ankles of any human being in the history of the world, Chrissy Chandelier has a scrambled egg for a brain with all the concussions he's suffered..David Boston was as injury prone as any guy to come down the pike, etc.

People can definitely become more prone to concussions. But you include guys like Fred Taylor, who is probably in the top 5 in terms of number of RB games played in the past 5 years. Taylor got a reputation for injury because he pissed off some fantasy players; this study reinforces the idea that an injury in 2001 doesn't presage an injury in 2003, despite the catchy nickname.

 

[SSOG]

There are certain injuries that do recur. Speed guys like Stallworth and Moss (and sprinters who race in world class 100 sprints) are going to have more hamstring injuries, because the nature of what they do increases the tension on the muscles. Its a medical fact that having one concussion increases your risk for another concussion. But most injuries suffered by football players are not this way. The most important example in 2007 is Frank Gore - he has suffered cartilige damage, ligament damage and bone damage in three separate instances. He's called "injury prone". There is no reason from his previous injuries to expect that he has a greater risk of injury then any other running back. So if its 1 in 5 and by bad luck he has an injury all those who call him injury prone will say "see, I told you so", but it will be just bad luck that he has another injury. The one caveat here is that Frank Gore loves contact which may in fact increase his injury risk slightly. But you have to project players who are healthy on the first day of the season as if they will stay healthy. You may lower their ranking because of how you perceive their increased risk, but fantasy football championships, like football itself is not won by the risk adverse.

I'm normally firmly behind the "unrelated injuries do not make a player injury-prone" theory, but there are two big caveats, both of which apply to Frank Gore. The first is that some players actually do court injury with their playstyle. For instance, if a player "runs too upright", his chance of getting injured (even entirely unrelated injuries) increases. The second big caveat is that some players do have a propensity to get injured, even if the injuries are unrelated. It's sometimes referred to as a "tissue issue". I've heard speculation that Frank Gore has tissue issues- it's possible that his ligaments are just weaker than the average NFL football player's and therefore more susceptible to tears. Wesley Duke, a former Denver TE, was another guy with "tissue issues"- I think he holds the record for most ACL reconstruction surgeries with 3, and he also had problems with his knee ligaments in his other knee, too (which prompted his release from the Broncos).Still, 95+% of the time a player is labeled as "injury prone", it is a gross mischaracterization.

 

[CalBear]

I'm normally firmly behind the "unrelated injuries do not make a player injury-prone" theory, but there are two big caveats, both of which apply to Frank Gore. The first is that some players actually do court injury with their playstyle. For instance, if a player "runs too upright", his chance of getting injured (even entirely unrelated injuries) increases. The second big caveat is that some players do have a propensity to get injured, even if the injuries are unrelated. It's sometimes referred to as a "tissue issue".

Do you have evidence for either of these assertions?

 

[SSOG]

I'm normally firmly behind the "unrelated injuries do not make a player injury-prone" theory, but there are two big caveats, both of which apply to Frank Gore. The first is that some players actually do court injury with their playstyle. For instance, if a player "runs too upright", his chance of getting injured (even entirely unrelated injuries) increases. The second big caveat is that some players do have a propensity to get injured, even if the injuries are unrelated. It's sometimes referred to as a "tissue issue".

Do you have evidence for either of these assertions?

The "upright running style" is something I've heard several places, but I can't recall specific instances to provide a link. I'll search around a little bit after I submit and see if I can't dig something out.The "tissue issue" thing is much easier to pin down. I got that one from Will Carroll, who writes two regular injury columns (one for football, one for baseball). His columns have appeared all over the place (it's currently on SI.com), and is one of the most fantastic resources I've come across. To my knowledge, he does not have a medical degree, he's just a journalist with extensive medical contacts, but either way, he knows his stuff. To provide some links and quotes where he discusses "tissue issues"...

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=2893

Let’s address the concept of “injury prone.” When someone has multiple injuries that don’t seem connected, that reduce effectiveness, or simply reduce his availability, the tag is placed on people too easily. In many cases, this is simply a “tissue issue” as David Donatucci calls it — a player simply cannot hold up under the demands of the game and like a car pushed too hard, something breaks. Kris Jenkins was a big part of the Panther defense and his loss to an ACL injury is potentially devastating. Jenkins figured to take some of the attention away from Julius Peppers, allowing him to do what he does more and better. Jenkins should be able to come back, perhaps losing a bit of his burst, by this time next year. The question now is what breaks next or if it’s bad luck rather than bad genetics. There is an interesting question of how damaged Jenkins’ knee was when he first came out. If the medical staff sent him out after a palpation showed a tear, I’d have some serious questions for whoever made that decision.

Discussing ‘tissue issues’ as a matter of genetics is interesting because of the incidence of brothers in the NFL. Boss Bailey missed all of 2004 after having his knee scoped, a much longer recovery than expected. Will that knowledge affect how we look at Champ Bailey’s timetable for returning from a subluxated shoulder? Possibly, but only in retrospect. Bailey is likely to play, with the Broncos giving him some additional help in the defensive backfield. Expect Bailey to show little or no ill effect besides some weakness in those arms, both extending to block or catch, and in showing some reluctance to make hard tackles over the next few weeks.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=2857

Who had Week Five in the Charles Rogers Fracture Pool? Rogers managed to keep his collarbones healthy – by breaking his arm in a fall. Rogers just seems to be fragile, what some physical therapists call a “tissue issue.” It’s amazing that anyone can hold up under the physical demands of NFL-style football, and adding in Rogers’ acrobatic yet graceless falls makes this a near inevitability. Rogers clearly has the talent to play at this level, yet lacks the one skill that every player must have – the ability to get out on the field week after week.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/index.php?p=2913

Ronald Curry re-tore his left Achilles tendon during Sunday’s game, just his second game after missing much of last season with the same injury. Curry had looked good throughout camp and the recovery rate for this type of surgery is very high. Curry had previously torn his right Achilles as well, leading to the conclusion that this is a “tissue issue.” Curry has some sort of weakness in his Achilles, perhaps genetic or from some other cause such as gait, strength deficit, or similar. Curry faces another long rehab and his future is now cloudy despite clear talent.

Edit: this thread discusses whether the "upright running style leaves you more open to injury" thing is a myth or not. There's no real conclusive evidence provided on either side, but I'm one of those who happens to believe that it does (for basic commonsense reasons). Regardless, that was meant only as an example rather than the crux of my argument. My point was that some players play in a manner that leaves them more likely to get injured, while others play in a manner that leaves them less likely to get injured. For an example of the former, think of Earl Campbell- he sought out every single collision he could possibly find, initiating all contact, and generally just exposing his body to a positively brutal beating. For an example of the latter, consider Marvin Harrison, who has a propensity to duck out of bounds and go down before the other team has a chance to initiate contact. On the one hand, these tendencies often cost his team a few yards here or there... but on the other hand, they have in large part contributed to a tremendously healthy career for Mr. Marvelous.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'll bet anyone that is interested that Andre Johnson plays more games than Joe Jurevicius.

 

[barndog]

It's worth noting that since Gore has had both knees and shoulders worked on, orthopedes with fantasy know-how (Stephania what's her name, now on ESPN) consider him MORE resistant to injury. He's been "improved" (a la Bionic Man) in her eyes.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

I'll bet anyone that is interested that Andre Johnson plays more games than Joe Jurevicius.

That's not 'injury prone,' that's 'old.'The point of the study was to find out if guys who'd been injured previously were more likely to be injured in the future. It's (almost) unequivocal that they aren't -- at least for RBs. The data couldn't be any clearer.But those are some outstanding theories, and excellent examples of trying to fit patterns over random data to explain the unexplainable.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

SSOG's nice post this morning on QBs got me thinking about a couple threads I did a few years ago, so I looked them up. Thought the thread discussion was really outstanding so decided to bump it.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Some players are wound tight, or slow healers, or have a low pain threshold, or are just not built to hold up over long periods under the physical stress the NFL inflicts. It affects their draft stock, their free agency marketability, the size of the role the team is willing to give them, and so on. I don't how to make a data set show this, but when it comes to propensity to miss games, not all players are created equal.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Some players are wound tight, or slow healers, or have a low pain threshold, or are just not built to hold up over long periods under the physical stress the NFL inflicts. It affects their draft stock, their free agency marketability, the size of the role the team is willing to give them, and so on. I don't how to make a data set show this, but when it comes to propensity to miss games, not all players are created equal.

Your opinion is noted. Actually I'm willing to buy that in rare exceptions teams might be able to ID guys who are prone to injury at the time of the draft. I just don't think past injuries predict future injuries for the vast majority of players.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Some players are wound tight, or slow healers, or have a low pain threshold, or are just not built to hold up over long periods under the physical stress the NFL inflicts. It affects their draft stock, their free agency marketability, the size of the role the team is willing to give them, and so on. I don't how to make a data set show this, but when it comes to propensity to miss games, not all players are created equal.

Your opinion is noted. Actually I'm willing to buy that teams might be able to ID guys who are prone to injury at the time of the draft. I just don't think past injuries predict future injuries for the vast majority of players.

I think if you talk to scouts and team execs and agents they would scoff at the idea that there is no such thing as an injury prone player. Yes, there are players that are branded as "injury prone" that end up changing their conditioning routine and defying the label, but trust me, there are players who are just not as well-suited to hold up under NFL punishment as others. It is not a myth. Whether we can use that effectively to make our fantasy teams better is another question altogether, but players that are more injury prone than others most certainly do exist.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Jerious Norwood is injury-prone, I don't think anyone in the Falcons organization would dispute this, yet he has played 14,15,16 and 10 games in his career, so there's no games played pattern to indicate this. Still, when the time came for the Falcons to either rely on him as a starter or look elsewhere, they signed Michael Turner. Norwood is an RFA this year and I feel confident no team will tap him to be more than a situational/RBBC back because of his injury record. Injury-prone players exist, and we can identify them, not by games played in year N+1 patterns, but by seeing how their teams use them and how they are received in the draft, free agency, and contract negotiations.

 

[Tanner9919]

I got this from a good source. Ben Roethlisberger is injury prone.

so was Robert Smith, Tim Biakabutuka, Blair Thomas, Cadillac Williams, Ronnie Brown, Chris Brown, Stephen Davis, Terry Allen...RB's by nature, are going to be more injury-prone than any other positional player in football, it's just the nature of the beast..some players have worse conditioning coaches than others, or worse off-the-field habits that can lead them vulnerable tothe injury-prone tag.

 

[Michael Fox Fan]

Some players are wound tight, or slow healers, or have a low pain threshold, or are just not built to hold up over long periods under the physical stress the NFL inflicts. It affects their draft stock, their free agency marketability, the size of the role the team is willing to give them, and so on. I don't how to make a data set show this, but when it comes to propensity to miss games, not all players are created equal.

Your opinion is noted. Actually I'm willing to buy that teams might be able to ID guys who are prone to injury at the time of the draft. I just don't think past injuries predict future injuries for the vast majority of players.

I think if you talk to scouts and team execs and agents they would scoff at the idea that there is no such thing as an injury prone player. Yes, there are players that are branded as "injury prone" that end up changing their conditioning routine and defying the label, but trust me, there are players who are just not as well-suited to hold up under NFL punishment as others. It is not a myth. Whether we can use that effectively to make our fantasy teams better is another question altogether, but players that are more injury prone than others most certainly do exist.

I can neither confirm nor refute your comments above (at least not based on hard statistical evidence). But for whatever reason, your post reminds me of the book Moneyball. And some of the "truisms" that Billy Beane exploited when building his early Oakland A's squads.

 

[SSOG]

Jerious Norwood is injury-prone, I don't think anyone in the Falcons organization would dispute this, yet he has played 14,15,16 and 10 games in his career, so there's no games played pattern to indicate this. Still, when the time came for the Falcons to either rely on him as a starter or look elsewhere, they signed Michael Turner. Norwood is an RFA this year and I feel confident no team will tap him to be more than a situational/RBBC back because of his injury record. Injury-prone players exist, and we can identify them, not by games played in year N+1 patterns, but by seeing how their teams use them and how they are received in the draft, free agency, and contract negotiations.

I think this is a very key point. Yes, some players have a higher propensity towards injuries than others- I don't think there's any question about that whatsoever. HOWEVER, at the same time, NFL front office types are already controlling for this. The "brittle" players get lighter workloads (which often leads to fantasy fans who don't consider health a "skill" to wonder why effective players like Norwood or MeMo aren't getting larger roles). In addition, a lot of the scouts' concerns about injury prone-ness are already accounted for. If a guy is drafted in the 1st round, that often means that scouts aren't concerned about his durability. That guy then plays in a lot of games because he was a 1st round pick, and it sort of becomes a self-fulfilling prophecies- the healthiest players are getting the biggest workloads, so therefore the guys who are getting the biggest workloads wind up being the healthiest.I think a much more valid statement is that no player is a heightened injury risk accounting for use and role. Jerious Norwood might be more likely to get injured than Michael Turner if they both got 300 carries... but the way they're used by the Falcons leaves them both at a comparable risk for injury. Norwood might be as likely to get injured in his 170 carries as Turner would be in his 370. The result is that neither player is more "injury prone" from a fantasy standpoint (i.e. no more likely than the other to miss games), but they are more "injury prone" from an NFL standpoint (i.e. less able to handle an increased workload).

 

[Ernol]

The problem I think with your study is you discuss individual RBs in your hypothesis yet analyze the league's RBs as a whole.

There's no disputing that Fragile Freddy "earned" that nickname nor that he was extremely durable after. You need to figure out how you can make it show that. Singling players out can be difficult so good luck, I just think ya need to keep that in mind.

That's the first thing I thought of as well. What I think your study shows is that "on average", RB's that get injured the prior year are not more likely to be injured again in the next year.