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Devil's Advocate
White Sox mail in the season... film at 11.
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The OFFICIAL 2007 Boston Red Sox Thread (1 Viewer)
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Encyclopedia Brown
Footballguy
Does he still refer to the Red sox as the "Carmine's"?Pat Patriot said:
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
one thing i liked about yesterday's win, was that we started cora, cash & kielty & still had a great offensive day.
kielty's looked pretty damn good so far. i'm happy with the pick up.
kielty's looked pretty damn good so far. i'm happy with the pick up.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
starters give up 5 runs in chicago. bullpen gives up 2. era 1.75. nice.
![[icon]](/data/avatars/m/5/5167.jpg?1660313464){kind=avatar}
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Insoxicated
Tuesday, August 28 7:05 PM ET
BOS Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP (13-10, 3.76)
NYY Andy Pettitte, LHP (11-7, 3.69)
Scouting Report:
Red Sox: Dice-K held the Rays to a single hit through his first 5 1/3 innings then watched as his hard work went to waste in the form of a two-run homer in the sixth that handed both he and the Red Sox a loss. The Japanese rookie has often fallen victim to poor run support and Wednesday was more of the same as his teammates mustered just one run in his defense. Matsuzaka said afterward that he was disappointed with too many "wasted pitches," but the lone obvious error was the home run ball.
Yankees: When the Yankees need a big win -- say, on days immediately following a loss -- Pettitte has been their guy. There are no bigger games, win or lose, than the hyped contests vs. Boston, and Pettitte draws the assignment to open the Yankees' against the Red Sox. The left-hander has won five straight starts, the last of which coming on Wednesday against the Angels, as he spun seven innings of one-run ball. Pettitte is 1-1 with a 5.01 ERA in five games (four starts) against Boston this year.
Wednesday, August 29 7:05 PM ET
BOS Josh Beckett, RHP (16-5, 3.21)
NYY Roger Clemens, RHP (5-5, 4.34)
Scouting Report:
Red Sox: The right-hander will be going after a career-high win No. 17 in this one. Beckett was far from his best in his last start, giving up seven hits and three runs over 5 2/3 innings. But he still managed to get the win, downing the White Sox by a score of 11-3. This is Beckett's final start in August, a month in which he's gone 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four starts. Beckett is 1-0 with a 5.54 ERA in two starts against the Yankees this season. This is Beckett's first start of 2007 at Yankee Stadium, where he's 2-1 with a 7.53 ERA in the regular season.
Yankees: The energy level at Yankee Stadium should be high for this one, as The Rocket takes on his former team for the first time since rejoining the Yankees. Clemens saw a two-start winning streak go by the boards when he allowed six runs in five innings to the Tigers on Friday. In the outing, he battled a blister on his right foot that may have impeded his delivery.
Thursday, August 30 1:05 PM ET
BOS Curt Schilling, RHP (8-5, 4.11)
NYY Chien-Ming Wang, RHP (15-6, 3.95)
Scouting Report:
Red Sox: Schilling has won his last two starts. He downed the White Sox in his last outing, holding them to four hits and a run over six innings. Schilling is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in three starts against the Yankees this season. He is 2-3 with a 4.91 ERA lifetime at Yankee Stadium.
Yankees: Citing a mechanical tweak that sped up his delivery some, Wang overcame a so-so start to best the Tigers on Saturday. Trusting his sinker more by throwing to the heart of the plate -- thus letting his natural movement do the work -- Wang went eight strong innings, holding Detroit to two runs. He is 2-1 in three starts against the Red Sox this season, working Boston to a 4.50 ERA.
Wednesday looks like one helluva matchup.... I can see the sox taking at LEAST one but very possibly 2 of these. Thursday will be tough...
BOS Daisuke Matsuzaka, RHP (13-10, 3.76)
NYY Andy Pettitte, LHP (11-7, 3.69)
Scouting Report:
Red Sox: Dice-K held the Rays to a single hit through his first 5 1/3 innings then watched as his hard work went to waste in the form of a two-run homer in the sixth that handed both he and the Red Sox a loss. The Japanese rookie has often fallen victim to poor run support and Wednesday was more of the same as his teammates mustered just one run in his defense. Matsuzaka said afterward that he was disappointed with too many "wasted pitches," but the lone obvious error was the home run ball.
Yankees: When the Yankees need a big win -- say, on days immediately following a loss -- Pettitte has been their guy. There are no bigger games, win or lose, than the hyped contests vs. Boston, and Pettitte draws the assignment to open the Yankees' against the Red Sox. The left-hander has won five straight starts, the last of which coming on Wednesday against the Angels, as he spun seven innings of one-run ball. Pettitte is 1-1 with a 5.01 ERA in five games (four starts) against Boston this year.
Wednesday, August 29 7:05 PM ET
BOS Josh Beckett, RHP (16-5, 3.21)
NYY Roger Clemens, RHP (5-5, 4.34)
Scouting Report:
Red Sox: The right-hander will be going after a career-high win No. 17 in this one. Beckett was far from his best in his last start, giving up seven hits and three runs over 5 2/3 innings. But he still managed to get the win, downing the White Sox by a score of 11-3. This is Beckett's final start in August, a month in which he's gone 3-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four starts. Beckett is 1-0 with a 5.54 ERA in two starts against the Yankees this season. This is Beckett's first start of 2007 at Yankee Stadium, where he's 2-1 with a 7.53 ERA in the regular season.
Yankees: The energy level at Yankee Stadium should be high for this one, as The Rocket takes on his former team for the first time since rejoining the Yankees. Clemens saw a two-start winning streak go by the boards when he allowed six runs in five innings to the Tigers on Friday. In the outing, he battled a blister on his right foot that may have impeded his delivery.
Thursday, August 30 1:05 PM ET
BOS Curt Schilling, RHP (8-5, 4.11)
NYY Chien-Ming Wang, RHP (15-6, 3.95)
Scouting Report:
Red Sox: Schilling has won his last two starts. He downed the White Sox in his last outing, holding them to four hits and a run over six innings. Schilling is 0-1 with a 7.00 ERA in three starts against the Yankees this season. He is 2-3 with a 4.91 ERA lifetime at Yankee Stadium.
Yankees: Citing a mechanical tweak that sped up his delivery some, Wang overcame a so-so start to best the Tigers on Saturday. Trusting his sinker more by throwing to the heart of the plate -- thus letting his natural movement do the work -- Wang went eight strong innings, holding Detroit to two runs. He is 2-1 in three starts against the Red Sox this season, working Boston to a 4.50 ERA.
Wednesday looks like one helluva matchup.... I can see the sox taking at LEAST one but very possibly 2 of these. Thursday will be tough...
wilked
Footballguy
Scroll down to see the Sox's postseason odds... they have actually busted off the charts 
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_team...BOS&sn=2007
http://www.coolstandings.com/baseball_team...BOS&sn=2007
David Yudkin
Footballguy
Sox record vs remaining teams on their schedule:
NY: 7-5
MIN: 2-1
TOR: 7-5
OAK: 2-4
BAL: 7-4
TB: 9-3
NY: 7-5
MIN: 2-1
TOR: 7-5
OAK: 2-4
BAL: 7-4
TB: 9-3
Alias
Footballguy
Red Sox are currently projected at winning 98.6 games, years when they won 98 or more games during the regular season:
2004 - WS
1978 -
1946 - AL
1915 - WS
1912 - WS
2004 - WS
1978 -
1946 - AL
1915 - WS
1912 - WS
bialczabub
Lord of the Flies
I'm pretty sure the 4 factors that have the greatest influence on the playoffs are:random chance, which has the biggest influence
Team K/9
Closer WXRL
Team Defensive Efficiency
NOt sure how the potential playoff teams measure up in those latter three metrics.
wilked
Footballguy
I don't think team K/9 should be a big factor. I would say top 3 starters + top 3 relievers K/9 would be more accurate, as the #5 guy will not see any real action (especially with the new playoff format), and the #4 guy will only see 2-3 games
bialczabub
Lord of the Flies
I'm just passing along what the guys who wrote Baseball Between the Numbers said. I think they did break out some top 3 starters stuff. i think what winds up happening is a big part of your staff pitches in the playoffs, with #5 starters filling in innings here and there.What it comes down to, is that teams who are able to control their own destiny (don't let batters put balls into play (K/9), turn a high % of balls in play into outs (defensive eff), and close games effectively (WXRL)) are at an advantage in the playoffs.
Regular season wins winds up having a very low correlation to playoff success, as does run scoring ability IIRC.
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Workhorse
Footballguy
Red Sox are currently #4 in defensive efficiency.They are also 5th in total Ks. Don't know k/9 but it stands to reason they'd be up near the top.
And closer? Papelbon is one of the 3 best in the league, and it's not up for debate.
I'd say they rank quite well in all 3 categories.
Darth Cheney
Footballguy
This Boston team has little heart. I know some jackhole will come in here and say that since Bill James can't come up with a formula to measure clutchibility.....clutchibility doesn't exist. The fact remains though that in the last three Yank-Sox series......when the Sox could have nailed the lid on the coffin of their number one division rival...they've lost 2 out of three. I've said it before.....this lineup isn't that good and they have to be winning games in order to fully utilize the key componenets of their vaunted bullpen.
wilked
Footballguy
I would take it easy with the 'sox offense isn't good enough'. They lost two games to the Yankees by a collective 3 runs. These were very close games...
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
i was screaming at the tv the entire inning. beckett's getting hit all over the place & tito trots him out there to face jeter, abreu, & arod. lame.
bialczabub
Lord of the Flies
# NAME TEAM WXRL1. J.j. Putz SEA 6.0622. Takashi Saito LAN 5.7173. Rafael Betancourt CLE 5.2204. Tony Pena ARI 4.6205. Hideki Okajima BOS 4.4546. Jonathan Papelbon BOS 4.316Let the debate begin.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Technically he said in the league and top 3 closers.
wilked
Footballguy
I am pretty pissed at their half-assed, we have an 8 game lead approach to this thing. They have TWO OFs with an injury yet are doing nothing about it, playing Hinske who sucks as a starter, with no OF on the bench for late game PHit is much too complacent
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Insoxicated
/debate
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Insoxicated
Agreed 100%While the sky is HARDLY falling with boston still looking good wtih a 5g lead and a cakewalk down the stretch, I'm failing to see much urgency or intensity during this series. We have the best pen in baseball, yet we leave starters out there too long. What are we saving papelbon/okajima/gagne for? Today? I realize Curt is unlikely to go past the 5th but come on... we have 2 games held close and we let them blow open due to using the grady-leash on the starters. Frustrating. C'est la vie
David Yudkin
Footballguy
I heard Manny out for 10 games, but the official word is "indefintiely."
bialczabub
Lord of the Flies
Knowing Manny's heart and dedication, I'm sure he will do everything in his power to get back soon.
wilked
Footballguy
10 games wouyld be smart...reg season really doesn't matter now, it is all about prepping for the playoffs. I would like to see Ortiz get some time off too
Jefferson the Caregiver
Rebel Without A Pause
With the injuries mounting and this team looking like they were starting to backpedal, this was huge. Hopefully they can get some momentum off this.
Big Papi
Footballguy
With the Yankees getting a W today, this win was huge.
HellToupee
Footballguy
Good Buchholz info---http://www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/articles/2007/09/02/team_will_be_patient_before_scheduling_date_for_encore/
Epstein said last night that Buchholz, who had not thrown more than 98 pitches in a game this season, would have been pulled from his no-hitter if his pitch count had reached 120 and he had batters left to face.....
"Tito called up a couple of times. We were talking about it. We knew that he hadn't thrown more than 98 pitches in a game . . . If we had taken this guy out, after 120 pitches with one out to go, we would have unwittingly become the poster boys for pitch counts and stuff we don't want to be known for. I'm glad it didn't get to that point.
"We have a plan," Sox general manager Theo Epstein said last night. "We're not necessarily going to articulate it [publicly]. This [no-hitter] can't change that. We've got to do what's right for the team and for Clay for the long term.Last night was the first time this season Buchholz had pitched past the seventh inning. In eight starts with Triple A Pawtucket after being promoted from Double A Portland July 12, he threw as many as seven innings just once, and threw more than 90 pitches just twice. In 15 starts for the Sea Dogs, he threw as many as seven innings just twice. In all, he's thrown 140 1/3 innings on three professional levels, 15 with the Sox, including six in his big league debut Aug. 17.
I thought I read when he 1st came up that the Sox were capping his innings at 160 this season
Epstein said last night that Buchholz, who had not thrown more than 98 pitches in a game this season, would have been pulled from his no-hitter if his pitch count had reached 120 and he had batters left to face.....
"Tito called up a couple of times. We were talking about it. We knew that he hadn't thrown more than 98 pitches in a game . . . If we had taken this guy out, after 120 pitches with one out to go, we would have unwittingly become the poster boys for pitch counts and stuff we don't want to be known for. I'm glad it didn't get to that point.
"We have a plan," Sox general manager Theo Epstein said last night. "We're not necessarily going to articulate it [publicly]. This [no-hitter] can't change that. We've got to do what's right for the team and for Clay for the long term.Last night was the first time this season Buchholz had pitched past the seventh inning. In eight starts with Triple A Pawtucket after being promoted from Double A Portland July 12, he threw as many as seven innings just once, and threw more than 90 pitches just twice. In 15 starts for the Sea Dogs, he threw as many as seven innings just twice. In all, he's thrown 140 1/3 innings on three professional levels, 15 with the Sox, including six in his big league debut Aug. 17.
I thought I read when he 1st came up that the Sox were capping his innings at 160 this season
NY/NJMFDIVER
Footballguy
So we have 100 pitches as the magic number, and now 160 innings as the rookie ceiling? I respect these guys for not riding these guys like government mules, but come on, these are also young, presumbably healthy, men. There to my knowledge, has been no history or threat of injury and when they could contribute, they are getting the hook. And my frustrtion here is born of seeing the Yankees do the same thing. Ian Kennedy hangs a pretty good game up yesterday, nothing elite or dominant, but a workmanlike outing that they've been lacking from that spot in the rotation but there's trepidation given his innings cap. Why are they locking into these seemingly arbitrary figures? If 100 pitches is good, isn't 80 better? If 160 innings is good, isn't 100 bettter? Better yet, if you don't pitch them at all, they'll never get hurt. And before the onslaught of the obvious, I'm not talking about 200 pitches and 300 inning seasons in their early 20's or at any point today realistically, but the market may over corrected.
Pat Patriot
Footballguy
Yes, right now the best comparison I can find for Buchholz outing is Phil Hughes. And wasnt it a 6 inning no hitter that Hughes was involved in.
shadyridr
Footballguy
Yes technically he got hurt in the 7th inning with 1 out.
DA RAIDERS
Footballguy
Sammy3469
Footballguy
Well the current thinking as it relates to young pitchers and injuries is that you don't want to increase innings and pcs more than 10-15% from year to year. I have no clue if there is any real data to support that thinking, but that's what the vast majority of teams are doing these days. Call it a reaction to Prior and Wood.
wilked
Footballguy
Interesting article on Buchholz, where it is argued that he increases the Sox chance at a WS by 4% if he is used in place of Wakefield as a starter
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=515
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=515
greedygoat
Footballguy
Does anyone know if Ellsbury is supposed to see regular AB's while Manny is out?
wilked
Footballguy
yep, he will be seeing regular time both while Manny is out
greedygoat
Footballguy
I'm not trying to be a smartass, but could you explain the bolded sentence above? What do you mean by "both"? Is he going to see regular AB's both while Manny is injured and when he comes back? TIA
wilked
Footballguy
sorry...he will definitely see regular time with Manny out. My speculation is that he continues to see regular time even with Manny back as they give guys rest - speculation only though
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Insoxicated
Impressive last couple of days for Sox Rookies:
Saturday Bucholz throws a no hitter in his 2nd MLB appearance
Today Ellsbury is a double short of the Cycle in just his 11th MLB Game.... moving his average over .450 and OPS well over 1.000
Papelbon
Lester
Youkilis
Pedroia
Bucholz
Ellsbury
all homegrown.... and stacked on top of Beckett & Matsuzaka (both in low/mid 20s) at the top of the rotation.
Saturday Bucholz throws a no hitter in his 2nd MLB appearance
Today Ellsbury is a double short of the Cycle in just his 11th MLB Game.... moving his average over .450 and OPS well over 1.000
Papelbon
Lester
Youkilis
Pedroia
Bucholz
Ellsbury
all homegrown.... and stacked on top of Beckett & Matsuzaka (both in low/mid 20s) at the top of the rotation.
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Insoxicated
Agreed... Ellsbury is insanely quick. Loving this kid...
shuke
Black Ice Skeptic
Excuse my ignorance, but how long is Manny out for? Just picked up Ellsbury.
