The article I link was written by Denny Carter, someone I found this season who often puts way more thought into ranking kickers than I do. He made a comment on a podcast I listen to about how sometimes a team that gives up major passing yards can be correlated to having a high scoring kicker. Anyway, it was written in 2018 but may still help someone as the process may not have changed all that much. It touches on Vegas lines and kicker attempts.
Kicker production, which hinges on opportunity, can be forecast using game totals and lines from Vegas oddsmakers
We’ve reached that part of the NFL offseason in which I try to scratch that proverbial itch: better understanding how and why we should target kickers in daily fantasy and seasonal leagues.
I’ve tried prescription cream, but the itch remains. Nothing works. I’ve given up.
Anyone who doesn’t reflexively dismiss the kicker position in
fantasy football — screaming into the void the myth that kicker scoring is unpredictable — knows that kickers on good teams that pile up passing yardage are usually premier fantasy producers. By the waning weeks of the 2017 season, all but one of fantasy’s most productive kickers just so happened to be on teams chasing playoff spots, providing plenty of positive game script necessary for field goal attempts throughout a game — not just in the first two or three quarters.
The only position more predictable than kicker is quarterback. Though the legions of losers and haters will deny this, it’s true.
It’s not a complex idea: we want kickers attempting plenty of kicks. To deploy a kicker who misses two of his four field goals on a given Sunday is good process, bad results. To have a kicker who makes his only field goal — even if it happens to be a long one — is bad process, good results. We shouldn’t care if a kicker is good if all signs point to him not having the opportunity that correlates so closely with fantasy production. See: not hard.
Vegas lines are always where we start with kicker selection, so wrapping our collective brain around which scenarios offer the most reliable pointers for kicker success would seem worthwhile. Let’s get a better feel for how Vegas totals and lines could (or should) affect our kicker choices in 2018 and beyond.
We see in the data charted above that high Vegas totals aren’t just important for the home kicker, but the visiting kicker too. Check out that ugly blue line, peaking around the 1.5 mark, showing that games with low totals aren’t all that likely to give us kickers racking up the field goal tries. The games with mid-range Vegas total aren’t hideous here — those contests seem to offer some stability in field goal attempts, whereas the lowest scoring contests see a rollercoaster dip in the 3-4 field goal attempt range — the holiest of kicker grails. That beautiful red line, meanwhile, stays high around the four attempt range, especially for the home kicker.
You won’t be shocked when I remind the good kicker truthers that we can’t look at Vegas total alone. There are plenty of NFL games that have a mid-range total with one team sporting a gleaming implied total thanks to being big Vegas favorites (to answer a frequent in-season question: there’s no reason to hesitate playing a kicker on a team favored to win by double digits; game script can’t be too good).
Another trend of which to take note: home field kickers have almost the exact same opportunity prospects in games with middle-of-the-road Vegas totals and games with low totals. It seems, at the very least, that we shouldn’t downgrade a home field kicker because Vegas has a game pegged at 42 total points rather than, let’s say, 45 or 46 points.
The above charts serve as life-affirming confirmation that
using kickers whose team is an underdog is, in fact, horrid process. It’s the sort of process that makes one consider how bad bleach can really taste (don’t wince — you know this to be true). This is a lesson best applied when fantasy players fall head over heels for a kicker who delivers one week, then enters the next week in a decidedly unfavorable situation. Nevertheless, we persist, and stay loyal to the guy who put up a dozen fantasy points for us seven short days ago.
This is unforgivably stupid. If a kicker heads into a week on the road on a big-time Vegas dog, we must cut bait. Loyalty is for suckers.
Kickers on home underdogs have slightly better prospects than those on visiting squads, as seen above. It’s impossible not to notice the incredibly even distribution in all scenarios for the home field kicker. It doesn’t seem to matter much if the kicker’s team is a Vegas favorite or not — the number of attempts is fairly steady.
The heavy home favorite, however, has a far better chance at trying 3-5 field goals than his visiting counterpart. Let’s chalk it up to home cooking, though I’m awaiting the data on said cooking.
Games that have a decent chance of featuring neutral game script — the black line — seem to favorite kickers on the road. Not by much, but by enough to take note.
The biggest surprise here: kickers on away teams favored bigly by Vegas are a hideous bet to end up with multiple field goal tries. The red line distribution on the Away Team FGA chart is an utter nightmare, whereas the red line on the Home Team FGA chart is more stable and inviting if we’re looking to maximize field goal attempts (we are).
I suppose we should exercise some degree of caution when deploying a kicker on an away team favored to win by a touchdown or more. While this puts me on the rare offseason tilt, it’s helpful to know.
Vegas Odds and Fantasy Kickers: What the Data Tells Us
This Vegas lines link I use (click on the first tab next to the team name called “open”) and it will arrange the lines by TEAM IMPLIED POINTS and what it opened at. So we have some home favorites here with implied totals. Which is what I think Carter is talking about.
Buffalo (Bass) 29.25
Eagles (Elliot) 28.75
KC (Butker) 28.75
Dallas (Aubrey) 28
SF (away favorite/ Moody) 27.5
Cleveland has no kicker at the moment
LA (away favorite/ Havrisk) 25.25
Balt (Tucker) 25
Seattle (Myers) 25
Ind (Gay) 23.75
Houston (Fairbairn) 23.75
Top fga per game this season is LAR (2.9), Seattle (2.5), Baltimore (2.4), Cleveland (2.4), Ind (2.3), Houston/Dallas/Atl (2.2) per Here.
Finally, top fga allowed by opponent on the season are Tennessee (2.7vs Fairbairn/Houston), Ind (2.5 vs Carlson/LV), NYJ (2.5 vs ??/Cle) per Here
This is the most research I’ve ever done regarding a kicker by a wide margin but I woke up early and have peace and quiet so here it is. Let me know if I messed up somewhere because I did not proofread this at all. But I’m most likely going with Fairbairn because the process seems right to me. Tennessee gives up a lot of attempts and Houston is a home favorite plus attempts a lot. Good luck to those in the championships and hope this helps someone as much as that chatter about Puka and Kyren helped me at the beginning of the season throw the bank and them two.
We allow a K to flex along with your starting kicker. Very few go that route but it can help with bye weeks, last minute injuries or desperate times.
