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The Official Kicker (K) Thread (1 Viewer)

KingPrawn said:
In real kicker news, Blair Walsh missed a PAT today and had a FG blocked. Special teams coach was livid on the sideline. Could there be a change at kicker afoot in MIN? Bears watching as there would be a lot of opportunity there.
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SEE - THERE IS KICKER NEWS OUT THERE!!!!!11!!!  If only this content wasn't in the way so we could get up to the minute info about the special teams coach's reaction to each missed kick during the games. :P

 
Sturgis could have had a huge day. Pederson pulled down to go for it when he could have two easy FGAs and Sturgis had another FGA blocked.

 
Stompin' Tom Connors said:
So Arodin seemed to make the right choice, however a) it was made after the Thursday game (unless he was referring to the Eagles game next week?) and b) given a), he went with Tucker.

As such, is this entry the winner?
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Dunno - the week isn't over. Last I checked both SEA and BUF have kickers and may use them tonight. 

:lol:  

Finally, is there a website for this storied sauce so we can potentially check it out and buy it anyway? PM me if you don't want to share it publicly for whatever reason.
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There is - I'll PM you. Not because I don't want to share it, but because it seems like poor form to spam the board with my company website. It would also then make the contest a promotion instead of just good fun. ;)  

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Dunno - the week isn't over. Last I checked both SEA and BUF have kickers and may use them tonight. 

:lol:  

There is - I'll PM you. Not because I don't want to share it, but because it seems like poor form to spam the board with my company website. It would also then make the contest a promotion instead of just good fun. ;)  
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Thanks!   :thumbup:

That's right, SID chose Hauschka. Not sure anyone chose (or would choose) Carpenter.

 
Ok, sorry for the delay folks - had a full day and I'm finally back and have time to go through to see who won! 

Gimme a few to change my shoes & settle in. Unlike the election you'll have a result in minutes, not hours or days. ;)  

 
Aunt Jemima - Mason Crosby 4 made, 0 missed, long 47 (actual = 2/3 long of 35)

Corn Rocket - McManus, 3 FG, 1 miss, 51 yrd long (actual = 2/2, long of 55)

Arodin - Tucker, 4 made, 1 miss, 48 yds (actual = 2/2 long of 49)

whole-show - Cairo Santos 4 made, 0 missed, long of 51 (actual = 4/4 long of 51)  :shock:  

bicycle_seat_sniffer - Josh Lambo, 4 made, 0  missed, 49 long (actual = 3/3 long of 36)

boltsfan - Santos, 3 made, 0 missed, long of 46 (actual = 4/4 long of 51)

FUBAR - Sebastian Janikowski, 4 made, 0 missed, long of 52 (actual = 3/4 long of 35)

VikingFrog - Blair Walsh, 4 made, 1 missed, long of 47 (actual 1/2 long of 33)

SayWhat? - Sturgis, 4 made, 0 missed, long of 46 (actual = 3/4 long of 38) 

crusty crab - Lambo, 4 made, 0 missed, long of 46 (actual = 3/3 long of 36)

Stompin' Tom Connors - Wil Lutz, 3 made, 0 missed, long of 42 (actual = 2/3 long of 41)

SaintsInDome2006 - Hauschka, 4 made, 0 missed, long of 52 (actual = 1/1 long of 49)

@whole-show absolutely crushed this by picking all 3 metrics. That's pretty darn amazing.

So I'm going to go ahead and send him/her/they/it  (damn you internet anonymity!) 2 bottles for the main contest, and 2 bottles for the bonus contest. Because that's an unreal call,  

And finally, I went ahead and asked @VikingFrog's wife for input, and she confirmed that he is, in fact, an idiot. Tough break buddy. :(

Thanks to everyone for playing along. You may now return to your regularly scheduled Kickers topic. :)  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Aunt Jemima - Mason Crosby 4 made, 0 missed, long 47 (actual = 2/3 long of 35)

Corn Rocket - McManus, 3 FG, 1 miss, 51 yrd long (actual = 2/2, long of 55)

Arodin - Tucker, 4 made, 1 miss, 48 yds (actual = 2/2 long of 49)

whole-show - Cairo Santos 4 made, 0 missed, long of 51 (actual = 4/4 long of 51)  :shock:  

bicycle_seat_sniffer - Josh Lambo, 4 made, 0  missed, 49 long (actual = 3/3 long of 36)

boltsfan - Santos, 3 made, 0 missed, long of 46 (actual = 4/4 long of 51)

FUBAR - Sebastian Janikowski, 4 made, 0 missed, long of 52 (actual = 3/4 long of 35)

VikingFrog - Blair Walsh, 4 made, 1 missed, long of 47 (actual 1/2 long of 33)

SayWhat? - Sturgis, 4 made, 0 missed, long of 46 (actual = 3/4 long of 38) 

crusty crab - Lambo, 4 made, 0 missed, long of 46 (actual = 3/3 long of 36)

Stompin' Tom Connors - Wil Lutz, 3 made, 0 missed, long of 42 (actual = 2/3 long of 41)

SaintsInDome2006 - Hauschka, 4 made, 0 missed, long of 52 (actual = 1/1 long of 49)

@whole-show absolutely crushed this by picking all 3 metrics. That's pretty darn amazing.

So I'm going to go ahead and send him/her/they/it  (damn you internet anonymity!) 2 bottles for the main contest, and 2 bottles for the bonus contest. Because that's an unreal call,  

And finally, I went ahead and asked @VikingFrog's wife for input, and she confirmed that he is, in fact, an idiot. Tough break buddy. :(

Thanks to everyone for playing along. You may now return to your regularly scheduled Kickers topic. :)  
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Lol! Love the 2nd to last comment, sorry @VikingFrog lol

Thanks again HOS for doing this, can't wait to try it!!

:boxing: :pickle:

 
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Bryant has been super solid for me - drafted Catanzaro, had someone else for a week, been rolling with the ATL kicker for about 5-6 weeks.

Picked up Lambo to cover his bye. Never carry two kickers but lots of weird things going on in 2016.

 
KingPrawn said:
In real kicker news, Blair Walsh missed a PAT today and had a FG blocked. Special teams coach was livid on the sideline. Could there be a change at kicker afoot in MIN? Bears watching as there would be a lot of opportunity there.
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heard on nfl radio last night they worked out a bunch of kickers but will stick with walsh. doesn't look like a change is imminent.

 
greatest said:
Cairo Santos or Adam Vinatieri ROS?
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 I did something I pretty much never do and hung on to a kicker in his bye. (Vinatieri) I held him in my two biggest money leagues.

 Going in to last week he was the #1 kicker in fantasy, and thats petty much the only time I consider such a move.

 The INDY defense is so bad they are having to score bunches to try and keep up. I think Vinatieri is the play going forward, and unless he drops off severely in the next two weeks, I am playing him rest-of-season.

 TZM

 
TZMarkie said:
 I did something I pretty much never do and hung on to a kicker in his bye. (Vinatieri) I held him in my two biggest money leagues.

 Going in to last week he was the #1 kicker in fantasy, and thats petty much the only time I consider such a move.

 The INDY defense is so bad they are having to score bunches to try and keep up. I think Vinatieri is the play going forward, and unless he drops off severely in the next two weeks, I am playing him rest-of-season.

 TZM
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Yeah, I held on to him too only because I had a spot. It's tough because Santos has been pretty good the past 5 weeks and has outscored Vinatieri by 29 points between weeks 6-10. 

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Gostkowski is being dropped in a lot of leagues. Definitely worth an add even if it means spending a few FAAB bucks to get him.
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I just picked him up in a dynasty league where he was dropped, after trying and failing to trade for him over the offseason.

I think people have underrated the value that Gostkowski has provided over the past 5 years.

By standard VBD calculations, he has been worth about 30 points per year over baseline, which is fairly substantial. And it adds up when you do it year after year after year; you don't get this kind of longevity & stability from most RBs/WRs/TEs.

At most positions, if you're starting a 30 VBD player that means you're missing out on an opportunity to start someone even better. It might be worth taking shots to try to get your hands on a top 10 RB who will be a major difference-maker, rather than being satisfied with rolling RB16 out there just because he's a "solid RB2" who should be one of the 24 RBs starting. But that doesn't apply at kicker, where 30 VBD is as good as it gets.

Also, value over baseline is understating how much Gostkowski has been helping you over the competition. Below-baseline kickers wind up getting a lot of starts since the position is pretty unpredictable on the whole. A kicker who has a big year, like Graham Gano last year, winds up being less valuable than his raw numbers would suggest because you're likely to miss several games of his production (starting someone like PK21 Matt Prater) before realizing that Gano is having a big year. If you had Gostkowski then you knew to start him every week, so you were getting a bigger edge over the field than the year-end kicker stats suggest – instead of being 5 points ahead of the Gano team, you might've been 20 points ahead of the Prater/Gano team. Looking at least year's numbers for one of my dynasty leagues, the average team cost itself 18.6 fantasy points compared to what they would've gotten get if they could've known in advance which kickers would turn out to be the above-baseline ones. I think we can basically just add that to Gostkowski's 30 VBD to get the actual value that he gave you, which is around 50 fantasy points per year.

Looking at 2011-2015, I estimate that Gostkowski was one of the 60 most valuable fantasy players over that period – worth about as much as Julian Edelman, Alfred Morris, Greg Olsen, or Andrew Luck. He was worth more than twice as much as the second-most-valuable kicker, Justin Tucker.

It's not clear if Gostkowski going forward will give you the same advantage that he did over the past 5 years, but it definitely seems worth taking a shot at it.

 
What do you think of Adam Vinatieri this week with Luck out?  What are the chances the Colts are just blown out?

 
ZWK said:
I just picked him up in a dynasty league where he was dropped, after trying and failing to trade for him over the offseason.

I think people have underrated the value that Gostkowski has provided over the past 5 years.

By standard VBD calculations, he has been worth about 30 points per year over baseline, which is fairly substantial. And it adds up when you do it year after year after year; you don't get this kind of longevity & stability from most RBs/WRs/TEs.

At most positions, if you're starting a 30 VBD player that means you're missing out on an opportunity to start someone even better. It might be worth taking shots to try to get your hands on a top 10 RB who will be a major difference-maker, rather than being satisfied with rolling RB16 out there just because he's a "solid RB2" who should be one of the 24 RBs starting. But that doesn't apply at kicker, where 30 VBD is as good as it gets.

Also, value over baseline is understating how much Gostkowski has been helping you over the competition. Below-baseline kickers wind up getting a lot of starts since the position is pretty unpredictable on the whole. A kicker who has a big year, like Graham Gano last year, winds up being less valuable than his raw numbers would suggest because you're likely to miss several games of his production (starting someone like PK21 Matt Prater) before realizing that Gano is having a big year. If you had Gostkowski then you knew to start him every week, so you were getting a bigger edge over the field than the year-end kicker stats suggest – instead of being 5 points ahead of the Gano team, you might've been 20 points ahead of the Prater/Gano team. Looking at least year's numbers for one of my dynasty leagues, the average team cost itself 18.6 fantasy points compared to what they would've gotten get if they could've known in advance which kickers would turn out to be the above-baseline ones. I think we can basically just add that to Gostkowski's 30 VBD to get the actual value that he gave you, which is around 50 fantasy points per year.

Looking at 2011-2015, I estimate that Gostkowski was one of the 60 most valuable fantasy players over that period – worth about as much as Julian Edelman, Alfred Morris, Greg Olsen, or Andrew Luck. He was worth more than twice as much as the second-most-valuable kicker, Justin Tucker.

It's not clear if Gostkowski going forward will give you the same advantage that he did over the past 5 years, but it definitely seems worth taking a shot at it.
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He's having a tough year.  Not sure if it's mental or physical but hoping he can turn it around.

 
Losing owner is having a fire sale in a keeper league and has Justin Tucker.  I thought about trying to send a late, late rounder to get him for the playoffs.  The problem is that he kicks in PIT week 16, which is historically a rough place to kick.  Is that environment enough to not acquire arguably the best kicker?  I currently have Sturgis.

 
JIslander said:
nope -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nk7janvm-qI
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Tucker is the best. He could kick it out of a hay field. Conditions do not matter. Yesterday after ####### Flacco run OB (instead of throwing it away like he is allowed to do - a David Carr specialty), and took a 5 ayrd loss (Yeah that's what he did. He's a total moron.), Tucker ran onto the field for a 57 yarder as Harbug and the staff were debating what to do. Tucker basically said, 'I'm kicking this thru, ladies'. BOOM, 57 yarder, right down the middle. Good from 67.

(1:53 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Flacco sacked at CIN 39 for -5 yards (M.Johnson). Penalty on BLT-R.Wagner, Offensive Holding, declined. He actually ran OB. IDIOT.

 
Tis the season of overanalyzing -- what potential waiver kickers are you guys rolling with in the playoffs?

I've had Sturgis most of the season, but the Philly offense has really fallen off 2 of the last 3 weeks.  I'm not sure that Washington matchup is so great either -- the Redskins are about on-par with the Bengals in defense.

Options on my wire are:

Forbath @ Jacksonville
Nugent @ Cleveland
Lutz @ Tampa

 
JFS171 said:
Tis the season of overanalyzing -- what potential waiver kickers are you guys rolling with in the playoffs?

I've had Sturgis most of the season, but the Philly offense has really fallen off 2 of the last 3 weeks.  I'm not sure that Washington matchup is so great either -- the Redskins are about on-par with the Bengals in defense.

Options on my wire are:

Forbath @ Jacksonville
Nugent @ Cleveland
Lutz @ Tampa
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pretty much what was available in my league last night, including Sturgis. i had ranked them Forbath, Sturgis, Lutz, Nugent. Forbath has a great schedule @Jax, Ind, @GB. At least two of those games they'll need to score a ton. Not sure what happened to him last year and during the offseason this year, but he's a capable kicker. full disclosure: i'm a bruin alum so i may be totally biased.

 
Pigskin Fanatic said:
pretty much what was available in my league last night, including Sturgis. i had ranked them Forbath, Sturgis, Lutz, Nugent. Forbath has a great schedule @Jax, Ind, @GB. At least two of those games they'll need to score a ton. Not sure what happened to him last year and during the offseason this year, but he's a capable kicker. full disclosure: i'm a bruin alum so i may be totally biased.
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Just noticed Janikowski as well and may be leaning that way. He's had multiple FGs in each of his last four games. The Oakland offense is strong enough that he usually has an XP floor (with a FG).  He hasn't scored fewer than 4 points in a game (which has happened 2X).  Still, his last four in my league have totaled 13, 9, 9, and 18 points, while the Chiefs have allowed 9, 17, 14, and 13 the past four games to opposing kickers. 

Only hesitation is that it's the Thursday night game, but McManus put up 14 on them 2 weeks ago on a Thursday, with a much less potent offense.

I may be riding with Seabass tomorrow night. 

 
I'm actually thinking of dropping SeaBass.  With a high of 27 tomorrow DAY, and 10 - 15 MPH winds, it will be like kicking bricks out there tomorrow night.  Yeah, the winds will drop down some at night, but so will the temps.  Into the teens.  Ouch.

Yeah, it looks like I will be flying south for my kicker this weekend.
 
Popped Prater into two of my teams last week. Worked very well, think I'm going to stick with him from here on out, he's absolutely drilling them right now 

 
Is Gostikowski a must start? Baltimore generally plays NE tough and he's been off this year more so than recent years.

 
Gottabesweet said:
Is Gostikowski a must start? Baltimore generally plays NE tough and he's been off this year more so than recent years.
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He got 17 points last week so I wouldn't be that concerned.  If the Pats keep struggling in the red zone without Gronk he could keep getting FG chances. 

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
I'm actually thinking of dropping SeaBass.  With a high of 27 tomorrow DAY, and 10 - 15 MPH winds, it will be like kicking bricks out there tomorrow night.  Yeah, the winds will drop down some at night, but so will the temps.  Into the teens.  Ouch.

Yeah, it looks like I will be flying south for my kicker this weekend.
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These guys are professionals, for one.  For two, I thought I remembered an analysis from a few years ago that basically debunked all the weather scares for players.

 
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lod001 said:
Tucker is the best. He could kick it out of a hay field. Conditions do not matter. Yesterday after ####### Flacco run OB (instead of throwing it away like he is allowed to do - a David Carr specialty), and took a 5 ayrd loss (Yeah that's what he did. He's a total moron.), Tucker ran onto the field for a 57 yarder as Harbug and the staff were debating what to do. Tucker basically said, 'I'm kicking this thru, ladies'. BOOM, 57 yarder, right down the middle. Good from 67.

(1:53 - 2nd) (Shotgun) J.Flacco sacked at CIN 39 for -5 yards (M.Johnson). Penalty on BLT-R.Wagner, Offensive Holding, declined. He actually ran OB. IDIOT.
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Tucker is ridicules. He's 28-28 for the year and 8-8 from 50+. For comparison the rest of the NFL kickers are 55-108 from 50+ yards this year which equates to a rate of 50.9%.

I just looked at FBGs rest of season values for kickers and he's #11. I get the schedule is tough but is anyone really sitting him for other options? He's matchup proof and Harbaugh won't be electing to punt unless the FG attempt is more that 60.

 
JFS171 said:
These guys are professionals, for one.  For two, I thought I remembered an analysis from a few years ago that basically debunked all the weather scares for players.
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Thanks, didn't know they were professionals; good info there.  Two, we are talking about kickers, not the rest of the players; no idea why you'd bring that up.  Thirdly, if you think a ball is going to fly as far or true with weather in the teens and wind, I'd love to see the "analysis" or proof behind that one.  There's a reason why a place like Heinz Field sucks for longer field goals.

Given the conditions, you can be sure coaches will give pause for trying anything over 50.  SeaBass will be fine tomorrow -- never said otherwise -- but the conditions will be sub-par, to say the least.  I'd rather roll the dice in Florida, for example.

 
Rodrigo Duterte said:
Thanks, didn't know they were professionals; good info there.  Two, we are talking about kickers, not the rest of the players; no idea why you'd bring that up.  Thirdly, if you think a ball is going to fly as far or true with weather in the teens and wind, I'd love to see the "analysis" or proof behind that one.  There's a reason why a place like Heinz Field sucks for longer field goals.

Given the conditions, you can be sure coaches will give pause for trying anything over 50.  SeaBass will be fine tomorrow -- never said otherwise -- but the conditions will be sub-par, to say the least.  I'd rather roll the dice in Florida, for example.
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Sorry - I meant no offense.  Perhaps I phrased that poorly.

Obviously talking about kickers... earlier this year, don't remember what week, I moved off a kicker (think it was Sturgis or Hopkins) because of the weather (rumors of 40-60 MPH wind gusts), and the kicker put up 16 on the waiver wire while the guy I moved to got me 4.  The study I was referencing covered all players, but it covered kickers too.  I can't find it though.

Point of it was that there's so many variables in the kicking game that weather events that may effect 50+ yard field goals may not even play a role in a given game.  Oakland could stall out 3 times in the red zone and Seabass gets three chip shots.  Also the wind outside the stadium is not always the same as what's going on at field level.

IDK -- I'm fully over analyzing at this point after having Sturgis get me a whopping 2 points last week while my opponent's Prater dropped 20 on me.

 
Buzzbait said:
Tucker is ridicules. He's 28-28 for the year and 8-8 from 50+. For comparison the rest of the NFL kickers are 55-108 from 50+ yards this year which equates to a rate of 50.9%.

I just looked at FBGs rest of season values for kickers and he's #11. I get the schedule is tough but is anyone really sitting him for other options? He's matchup proof and Harbaugh won't be electing to punt unless the FG attempt is more that 60.
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I'm holding and playing. BAL does have tough matchups, and they aren't exactly a high-octane offense. However, that's been true all season, and nothing really changes in terms of the types of teams BAL has played and will play.

I am thinking Lambo might be in general a better play going forward from a PPG basis, but the difference is nominal. And I'm just risk averse enough to not make a change when nothing's broke. 

 
JFS171 said:
Sorry - I meant no offense.  Perhaps I phrased that poorly.

Obviously talking about kickers... earlier this year, don't remember what week, I moved off a kicker (think it was Sturgis or Hopkins) because of the weather (rumors of 40-60 MPH wind gusts), and the kicker put up 16 on the waiver wire while the guy I moved to got me 4.  The study I was referencing covered all players, but it covered kickers too.  I can't find it though.

Point of it was that there's so many variables in the kicking game that weather events that may effect 50+ yard field goals may not even play a role in a given game.  Oakland could stall out 3 times in the red zone and Seabass gets three chip shots.  Also the wind outside the stadium is not always the same as what's going on at field level.

IDK -- I'm fully over analyzing at this point after having Sturgis get me a whopping 2 points last week while my opponent's Prater dropped 20 on me.
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Oddsmakers had the over/under on longest field goal made (by both) at 45 1/2 in KC the other night.  Teams weren't even considering FG's in the high 40's and the under prevailed quite easily (not even an attempt).

Total points are another decent indicator I don't mind looking at.  The highest O/U this week is the Bucs and the Saints at @ 51.  Lutz is likely rostered.  Aguayo, not so much, as nobody trusts him and for good reason.  Interestingly, Maurile has him ranked #1 overall this week.  Talk about a boom/bust play.  For those that started off behind the 8-ball by playing against Tyreek Hill and/or Latavius Murray -- or worse, having also started Cooper -- you might want to consider Roberto.

BTW, the 2nd highest point total is the SD/Car game at 48 1/2 and both Gano and Lambo are dangling on many wires.  Forecast has no wind to speak of with temps in the mid 40's.

Good luck!

 
Would you stick with Bailey tonight in NY or go with Novak in the dome in Indy?   Looks like snow and wind might not end up being an issue but is Bailey just as good in the cold as well?

The Texans should be able to move the ball against the Colts D but I'm worried they could go down 21-0 quickly and not try to kick FGs.  

 
eddiezz74 said:
Would you stick with Bailey tonight in NY or go with Novak in the dome in Indy?   Looks like snow and wind might not end up being an issue but is Bailey just as good in the cold as well?

The Texans should be able to move the ball against the Colts D but I'm worried they could go down 21-0 quickly and not try to kick FGs.  
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O'Brien strikes me as the kind of coach who would kick FGs down 21-0.

 
Anyone have a real gut feeling on a kicker today? I have Lutz going.....but open to suggestions...thanks

 
NREC34 said:
Same choice. I'm picking up Janikowski. Last move in the league. 
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Janikowski seems pretty solid choice for this week at SD      Weather right now looks to be 60 and clear w no wind.  Plus, with SD losing M.Gordon, they may not be able to run the ball as well so there may be a potential for a passing scorefest or Rivers turnovers leading to OAK scores.

 
What are everyone's thoughts on Vinatieri @MIN this week?      I know playing at MIN against that defense can be tough, but if Indy can move the ball a little and get close enough, this game looks like it might be a FG game as both sides might stall out in the red zone.

What about Forbath vs INDY on the other side?............he had 4 FGs vs Jax this wkend. 

 
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