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The one thing I have learned playing ff over 25 years + is? (1 Viewer)

26 years of playing, today is my draft The only certainty of the day is I will be drunk tonight and I will wake up hating my team tomorrow. Seasons are won and lost on the WW--bottom line.

 
jwb said:
Perfect example - That owner breezed through that year - until week 15 (Playoff week 2). Brady/Moss die in the mud against the Jets. 
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I know because week 15 I beat the guy and won the league. My draft was a disaster but I churned the WW hard and got guys like Derek Anderson, Nate Burleson, Maroney, Earnest Graham. It was my finest fantasy season ever. It was a team of misfit toys. 

 
Ilov80s said:
jwb said:
Perfect example - That owner breezed through that year - until week 15 (Playoff week 2). Brady/Moss die in the mud against the Jets. 
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I know because week 15 I beat the guy and won the league. My draft was a disaster but I churned the WW hard and got guys like Derek Anderson, Nate Burleson, Maroney, Earnest Graham. It was my finest fantasy season ever. It was a team of misfit toys. 
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Yea, same here, which is why I remember it. Barely making the playoffs, going against the #1 seed who had Brady/Moss lighting it up week after week. Thinking I had no chance, but I remember the weather was supposed to be bad, so that was my little sliver of hope. Maybe it wasn't mud - maybe it was snow/wind? I just remember it was poor weather, making it an ugly NFL game. 

 
All too true!! Espicially the drinking part ! WW is where titles  are made..the draft is only good for so much but you add key pieces via the waiver wire..

 
That the week before your draft al the guys you like will start flying up draft boards. In standard, a week ago I was able to get Marvin Jones in the 7th or 8th no problem. Now, I see him going early 6th. Moncrief was always available in the 5th. Now I see him as a late 4th pick. Rashad Jennings is up about 2-3 rounds. Stafford is up 2 or 3 rounds. Langford as well. There was a point 3 weeks ago where I could draft Miller, Marshall, Jefrey, Maclin, Decker, Moncrief , Jones, Jennings. in the first 8 rounds. Now I am lucky if I can get 4 of those 8 guys. 

 
Ilov80s said:
OK, sports betting. Do you think there are people who are more successful than others at betting on games? If a very good sports gambler was picking games against Average Joe, over time he would get more games right and win more money. Any given week or even season, he could lose because luck is massive. Over the long haul, there is a skill. In all my long running leagues there are few teams that consistently make the playoffs and they aren't a few teams that consistently don't make the playoffs. Year to year there is variance, but over 15 years, it's very clear who the strong players are and the records bare this out. 
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Again.. you are arguing a different point. And for some reason you keep needing to go outside fantasy football to do so?

I have not ever made the case that there is not skill involved.. only that luck trumps skill.

No amount of skill can trump an equal amount of luck.

 
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In auction leagues, don't overpay for one guy and use wisdom when driving the price up against your competition. 

When offered a trade, always ask for a little more in return. Try to figure out why they want your guy and not theirs. 

If you have a rookie draft, find out who overvalues those picks and exploit it. We have a guy who over pays every year to get the next Johnny Manzel. 

 
matuski said:
Again.. you are arguing a different point. And for some reason you keep needing to go outside fantasy football to do so?

I have not ever made the case that there is not skill involved.. only that luck trumps skill.

No amount of skill can trump an equal amount of luck.
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Luck and skill cannot really be quantified in fantasy football.  However operating under the premise of "...an equal amount..." of luck/skill then neither would trump the other they would balance each other out.

 
Chaka said:
Luck and skill cannot really be quantified in fantasy football.  However operating under the premise of "...an equal amount..." of luck/skill then neither would trump the other they would balance each other out.
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If anything the slightest amount of luck can trump the most "skillful" thing anyone has ever done in FF.

 
Luck isn't real. What you are referring to are probabilities. Skilled players can slightly adjust probabilities in their favor just like bad players can skew probability against them.

 
Ilov80s said:
Luck isn't real. What you are referring to are probabilities. Skilled players can slightly adjust probabilities in their favor just like bad players can skew probability against them.
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Luck = opportunity + preparedness 

e.g. Luck favors the prepared. 

Hopefully Luck also favors Moncrief. 

 
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Courtjester said:
26 years of playing, today is my draft The only certainty of the day is I will be drunk tonight and I will wake up hating my team tomorrow. Seasons are won and lost on the WW--bottom line.
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Best of skill ;) Were you playing when USA Today had a league and we got our results the next day in the paper? I won a t-shirt one of those early years - lol

 
You can't adjust for human behavior and injury.  Or perhaps it is better to say you can only adjust in a reactionary manner.. you can't predict these things.

Unless you have solved the problem of seeing the future.. you can't quantify the probability of even one of the infinite variables that can happen to a person, the field, the weather, the people around your player.

Call it what you want.. it doesn't change the fact that the slightest unforeseeable occurrence can override every ounce of "skill" that ever existed in this game.

 
Tanner9919 said:
All too true!! Espicially the drinking part ! WW is where titles  are made..the draft is only good for so much but you add key pieces via the waiver wire..
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Draft is fun, yet how many people actually start consistently on your original team and how many waiver wire "gems" actually make a big influence? In some leagues half my team gets filled in with Bench players or waiver wire pickups - every year for the last 4-5 it seems! Crazy!
 

 
matuski said:
You can't adjust for human behavior and injury.  Or perhaps it is better to say you can only adjust in a reactionary manner.. you can't predict these things.

Unless you have solved the problem of seeing the future.. you can't quantify the probability of even one of the infinite variables that can happen to a person, the field, the weather, the people around your player.

Call it what you want.. it doesn't change the fact that the slightest unforeseeable occurrence can override every ounce of "skill" that ever existed in this game.
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You are looking at everything from a much too micro level. Nobody can tell you if Cam will score 40 TDs or 25 TDs. However there is plenty of data that shows the odds are he regresses. Data can show that QB is very deep and the opportunity cost of taking a QB in round 6 as opposed to round 11 is not likely to be worth it. We can't tell if Kelce scores 170 points or 130 points this year, but data can show that historically TEs taken in middle rounds do not score high enough to justify the pick. 

 
Ilov80s said:
You are looking at everything from a much too micro level. Nobody can tell you if Cam will score 40 TDs or 25 TDs. However there is plenty of data that shows the odds are he regresses. Data can show that QB is very deep and the opportunity cost of taking a QB in round 6 as opposed to round 11 is not likely to be worth it. We can't tell if Kelce scores 170 points or 130 points this year, but data can show that historically TEs taken in middle rounds do not score high enough to justify the pick. 
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Last time - going round and round here.

Yes there is data.  And the best use of all the data (skill) can** be rendered utterly useless by un-quantifiable/unpredictable occurrences (luck). 

 
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In the end we are arguing the same thing. It's both a game of skill and chance. Both are needed to win a league. A very skilled player can be derailed by chance. An "unlucky" player can overcome it with skill. 

 
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jwb said:
Yea, same here, which is why I remember it. Barely making the playoffs, going against the #1 seed who had Brady/Moss lighting it up week after week. Thinking I had no chance, but I remember the weather was supposed to be bad, so that was my little sliver of hope. Maybe it wasn't mud - maybe it was snow/wind? I just remember it was poor weather, making it an ugly NFL game. 
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It was a cold, rainy day on a rug. No mud.

 
BigSteelThrill said:
Then I must be the GD Warren Buffett of FF speculation. Luck is for chumps.
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In ultimate reality there really is no such thing as luck - one is either aligned with this energy or not. Go with the flow and be your very best. Use your intuition and gut versus the talking heads. It is simple and as complex as that.

 
Team Smokin' said:
In ultimate reality there really is no such thing as luck - one is either aligned with this energy or not. Go with the flow and be your very best. Use your intuition and gut versus the talking heads. It is simple and as complex as that.
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We talk about "lucky juice" all the time in my leagues. Its there. Its just not the dominant factor that some want to believe. The same people who lose their money continually to the luck of the cards at the Hold "em table. Skill pays the bills. You better be in a position to win should luck actually break your way. 

 
BigSteelThrill said:
We talk about "lucky juice" all the time in my leagues. Its there. Its just not the dominant factor that some want to believe. The same people who lose their money continually to the luck of the cards at the Hold "em table. Skill pays the bills. You better be in a position to win should luck actually break your way. 
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Like playing cards or going to the casino...I believed I was going to win and I have come out ahead. Many will say lets go the casino I have an extra $50 I can donate for the fun of it. Most often we get what we ask for. We Become What We Think. I believe I am going to win.

 
Team Smokin' said:
In ultimate reality there really is no such thing as luck - one is either aligned with this energy or not. Go with the flow and be your very best. Use your intuition and gut versus the talking heads. It is simple and as complex as that.
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I like the cut of your jib. 

 
jwb said:
Yea, same here, which is why I remember it. Barely making the playoffs, going against the #1 seed who had Brady/Moss lighting it up week after week. Thinking I had no chance, but I remember the weather was supposed to be bad, so that was my little sliver of hope. Maybe it wasn't mud - maybe it was snow/wind? I just remember it was poor weather, making it an ugly NFL game. 
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Since both team's home fields are turf, I think its safe to say it wasn't muddy.

 
Courtjester said:
26 years of playing, today is my draft The only certainty of the day is I will be drunk tonight and I will wake up hating my team tomorrow. Seasons are won and lost on the WW--bottom line.
Click to expand...
2 years ago I woke up the day after draft not knowing who my last 6 picks were(or knowing how I got home)

Apparently I took a flyer on Kelvin Benjamin in the last round

Skill gets you there, winning it all is luck

 
One year I'd just read a really good article about  RBs vs WRs returning from ACL injuries - how WRs often return to form in one year while for RBs it typically takes 2.  Bear in mind this was long ago and medical technology has come a long way with ligament repair.

Jamal Lewis had some legal troubles and had blown out his knee 2 seasons prior. Right around the same time, a little known QB had taken over for Drew Bledsoe.

i was on board with both players on a hope that what I'd read was accurate about RBs, and what I thought I'd seen in Brady. 

I managed to grab Lewis in the 6th and Brady in the 7th. That's after stacking my team with other talent at RB, WR & TE through 5 rounds. 

That was my best year in FFB, ever, and remains the highest average score per game and highest season score on that league's  history page. Cakewalk to the playoffs, 9 game winning streak, easy championship. The only one I've won in that league. 

That all said, I didn't know either Lewis or Brady would work out - I absolutely did not expect a 2000 yard season out of Lewis, nor a top 5 finish from Brady.

But I drafted them.

so was i good or was I lucky?

I say a bit of both - opportunity met preparedness. I drafted players and gave myself the opportunity to reap the rewards if they worked out.

And they did. But that could as easily have been a terrible season, as Lewis was my RB2 and Brady my QB1. If they bust, my team probably sucks. 

If they were both busts, would I have been unlucky or just wrong about the players? Again - probably a bit of both - it was very risky waiting that long on my 2nd RB - this was in the dark ages when most teams went RB-RB, or even 3 straight RBs. 

So yes - to win at this game you have to have some skill. You also have to be lucky.

Skill without luck and you have nothing.

and allllll that said, it's also possible to be genuinely unlucky.  I had 1 season where I won 10% of the pot for being the top scoring team, and went 4-10. In those ten losses, I would have beaten every other team except the one I faced that week.  :wall:

Its really hard to be the top scoring team and lose 10 games, but I managed to pull it off.  So I'm a big believer in bad luck, having experienced it for myself. lol

 
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Two things.......with the internet, it's easy to draft a competitive team........and playing the ww wins championships.

 
Manster said:
Two things.......with the internet, it's easy to draft a competitive team........and playing the ww wins championships.
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Sometimes. 

Sometimes it can kill ya. A championship I once lost, I had 2 RBs. One had been up and down, forget who...but news 15 mins before the Sunday game was that DeSean Foster was getting the start for SF. There he was on waivers. At the time the Niners RBs typically scored 15-20 pts/game, and Foster had looked great in limited action. I jumped on it, started Foster 10 mins before the game started. 

The RB 2 I benched put up 152 yards rushing on my bench. Foster scored 8 or 9 points. 

I lost the LCG by ~5 pts. 

The WW giveth, and the WW taketh away. ;)  

 
I have learned that no one cares about my fantasy football team or my stories of fantasy football glory.

 
Chaka said:
Nope.  Seriously, you're the only one who cares about your fantasy football team.
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Sometimes it's relevant in context of a discussion though. Say, about luck vs skill. 

;)  

And maybe on "who should I start" topics - folks care then, right? 

 
Oh, one other thing I've learned about FFB in all the years I've been playing....

There is no greater c0ckblock than when you're chatting up a girl at a bar and your leaguemate/friend comes over and starts talking FFB like it's cool. On the other hand, if the girl chimes in, "that's a terrible trade, Charles is coming off an ACL!" then marry that girl. :D  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
One year I'd just read a really good article about  RBs vs WRs returning from ACL injuries - how WRs often return to form in one year while for RBs it typically takes 2.  Bear in mind this was long ago and medical technology has come a long way with ligament repair.

Jamal Lewis had some legal troubles and had blown out his knee 2 seasons prior. Right around the same time, a little known QB had taken over for Drew Bledsoe.

i was on board with both players on a hope that what I'd read was accurate about RBs, and what I thought I'd seen in Brady. 

I managed to grab Lewis in the 6th and Brady in the 7th. That's after stacking my team with other talent at RB, WR & TE through 5 rounds. 

That was my best year in FFB, ever, and remains the highest average score per game and highest season score on that league's  history page. Cakewalk to the playoffs, 9 game winning streak, easy championship. The only one I've won in that league. 

That all said, I didn't know either Lewis or Brady would work out - I absolutely did not expect a 2000 yard season out of Lewis, nor a top 5 finish from Brady.

But I drafted them.

so was i good or was I lucky?

I say a bit of both - opportunity met preparedness. I drafted players and gave myself the opportunity to reap the rewards if they worked out.

And they did. But that could as easily have been a terrible season, as Lewis was my RB2 and Brady my QB1. If they bust, my team probably sucks. 

If they were both busts, would I have been unlucky or just wrong about the players? Again - probably a bit of both - it was very risky waiting that long on my 2nd RB - this was in the dark ages when most teams went RB-RB, or even 3 straight RBs. 

So yes - to win at this game you have to have some skill. You also have to be lucky.

Skill without luck and you have nothing.

and allllll that said, it's also possible to be genuinely unlucky.  I had 1 season where I won 10% of the pot for being the top scoring team, and went 4-10. In those ten losses, I would have beaten every other team except the one I faced that week.  :wall:

Its really hard to be the top scoring team and lose 10 games, but I managed to pull it off.  So I'm a big believer in bad luck, having experienced it for myself. lol
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I think this happens to me every other year. The team in playing has a guy go off for a career game, and I would've beaten any other team

 
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