The Shaun Alexander Conundrum....what to do? (1 Viewer)

[flranger]

For the record, I don't have Shaun Alexander and this isn't a WDIS so flamers go away. I think most leagues have a guy that spent a high draft pick or a lot of money on Alexander and his team is probably hurting right now, possibly worried about missing playoffs.

Likewise, other teams who have had a good start may be looking at the playoff matchups and thinking they can swing Alexander purely for the playoff run.

Of course the problem is....when he comes back it will take some time to get going...and with the O line changes is he really the back he was the past years? I've got real concerns about the guy but also think there is some sick value.

My question is.........if you looked solid for the playoffs, which RBs would you NOT trade for Alexander in a one for one trade right now?

My list of no way would be:

LT

LJ

Tiki

Stephen Jackson

Portis

Willie Parker

and then the hard part, the maybe guys:

Westbrook (when healthy will outproduce in PPR, but will he stay healthy?)

Chester Taylor (playoff DET, NYJ, GB and #11 in our league with easy stretch coming up)

Ronnie Brown

Tatum Bell

Kevin Jones (can't keep producing like this.....or can he)

Rudi Johnson (pretty concerned about him right now)

Every other RB I can say I would trade one for one right now for Shaun Alexander and let the chips fall where they may. What is your thoughts???

 

[cscmtp]

Good topic. I think if you're pretty confident your team is going to make the playoffs at this point, he's the ultimate low buy low risk high reward player to get. I just moved Rudi for Alexander straight up in a dynasty. I figure even if i have to wait 3 or 4 weeks to have him in my lineup, he's worth the wait, and will pay BIG dividends when he returns. Especially with that playoff schedule. In the meantime, i'll be starting Maroney or Henry along with Portis until he returns.

 

[KiddLattimer]

I just traded SA for Rudi in one league. Yes he scares me but its not like SA is going to step back on the field the first week and rush for 140 and 3TDs, it will take time to come back... time my team doesnt have.

 

[flranger]

I just traded SA for Rudi in one league. Yes he scares me but its not like SA is going to step back on the field the first week and rush for 140 and 3TDs, it will take time to come back... time my team doesnt have.

One of the reasons I started this thread. Unless the Alexander owner was very smart lower in the draft, almost every league probably has an Alexander owner that is worried about making playoffs. Likewise also has other owners smelling blood in the water.I think Alexander takes 3 weeks to come back, then won't get a full load of carries until another 2 weeks. That is week 12. While the foot was hurt, at least he will have fresh legs.

For the record, I have offered Chester Taylor in a one for one. Currently at 8-3, let the chips fall where they may.

 

[cscmtp]

I don't disagree with your logic. It will take Alexander a few weeks to get back to full stregnth. But again, I felt I had a strong enough team to move Rudi for SA, knowing that I'm most likely going to make the playoffs (unless i get a run of horrid luck or injuries) and by week 14 (1st playoff round) SA should definitely be back in full form. By then, i'll be starting:

Delhomme, Grossman, or Rivers

Portis, Alexander, Maroney

Steve Smith, S.Moss, Evans or Randy Moss

Cooley or V.Davis

Kasey

Panthers D

I hope the move pays off with a SB title!

 

[oso diablo]

I hope the move pays off with a SB title!

If your SB game is in week 16, aren't you worried about SA facing the Chargers? Every time i get the itch to make an offer for Alexander (i snagged Morris on waivers), i balk at that one fact.

 

[flranger]

I hope the move pays off with a SB title!

If your SB game is in week 16, aren't you worried about SA facing the Chargers? Every time i get the itch to make an offer for Alexander (i snagged Morris on waivers), i balk at that one fact.

Between the two teams they average 52 points per game. I'm pretty confident that if healthy, SA gets at least one TD and 80 yards. I look for a shootout.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

they do get SD at home at least

 

[Arm Chair Express]

I hope the move pays off with a SB title!

If your SB game is in week 16, aren't you worried about SA facing the Chargers? Every time i get the itch to make an offer for Alexander (i snagged Morris on waivers), i balk at that one fact.

You have to get to week 16 first and he plays Az and SF in weeks 14 and 15. If you had the players on your roster to get to the playoffs you should still have them on your roster to substitute if you have to. I've turned down 2 really solid offers for him in a keep 10 league just for that reason.

 

[oso diablo]

Between the two teams they average 52 points per game. I'm pretty confident that if healthy, SA gets at least one TD and 80 yards. I look for a shootout.

you guys are all making good points. May be a shootout, but more likely to be one through the air, as SD ranks #1 and Seattle #2 in fewest rushing attempts/game against their defenses. Teams have run the ball only 18.4 times/game against the Chargers. Seattle is next at 22.4.I went back and looked at the stats of each Charger game this season. 1 - crush Oakland 27-0. Lamont Jordan rushes only 10 times for 20 yards. We'll throw this game out as the Raiders run only 39 plays.2 - crush Tennessee 40-7. Vince Young leads the Titans in rushing with 24 yds on 5 carries. Another game not indicative of what we'd expect from Seattle.3 - lose at Baltimore 16-13. Jamal Lewis gets 34 yds / 15 carries.4 - beat Pittsburgh 23-13. Parker logs 57 yds. Only 14 carries, but a TD (only rushing TD given up this season)5 - crush SanFran 48-19. Gore gets 55 yds. Again, few carries (10).I'm not trying to dissuade anyone; just trying to come to grips with this myself, as i think i could steal Alexander from his owner if i pounce this weekend.

 

[flranger]

These are good points, but each one of these games SD was up very quickly so teams abandoned the run. Will they be able to stay that far ahead of Seattle? I think it will stay close througout.

Between the two teams they average 52 points per game. I'm pretty confident that if healthy, SA gets at least one TD and 80 yards. I look for a shootout.

you guys are all making good points. May be a shootout, but more likely to be one through the air, as SD ranks #1 and Seattle #2 in fewest rushing attempts/game against their defenses. Teams have run the ball only 18.4 times/game against the Chargers. Seattle is next at 22.4.I went back and looked at the stats of each Charger game this season. 1 - crush Oakland 27-0. Lamont Jordan rushes only 10 times for 20 yards. We'll throw this game out as the Raiders run only 39 plays.2 - crush Tennessee 40-7. Vince Young leads the Titans in rushing with 24 yds on 5 carries. Another game not indicative of what we'd expect from Seattle.3 - lose at Baltimore 16-13. Jamal Lewis gets 34 yds / 15 carries.4 - beat Pittsburgh 23-13. Parker logs 57 yds. Only 14 carries, but a TD (only rushing TD given up this season)5 - crush SanFran 48-19. Gore gets 55 yds. Again, few carries (10).I'm not trying to dissuade anyone; just trying to come to grips with this myself, as i think i could steal Alexander from his owner if i pounce this weekend.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

This is gripping to me because I am in the same boat. I could probably get Alexander for Rudi and still have Rhodes start while he (SA) was injured.

Personally, I hate to trade/draft for injured players due to the unpredictability of injuries. But I do like what I hear though regarding how and when they will bring him back though. Seems alot like D Jack last year.

What to do, what to do...................?

 

[Arm Chair Express]

This is gripping to me because I am in the same boat. I could probably get Alaxander for Rudi and still have Rhodes start while he (SA) was injured.Personally, I hate to trade/draft for injured players due to the unpredictability of injuries. But I do like what I hear though regarding how and when they will bring him back though. Seems alot like D Jack last year.What to do, what to do...................?

With a stretch of Car, Atl, Bal and SD for Rudi in the next four games that may be a good move for you. Not to mention in the 5th game they have NO whos playing some good D. That still leaves Bal wk 13 and Den week 16. Tough matchups for Rudi and C. Perry is coming back to boot.

 

[Chubbs]

I have FWP & Cadilliac therefore traded Kevin Jones for Shaun Alexander. Comparing the schedule:

Kevin Jones:

Wk8 BYE, Wk9 ATL, Wk10 SF, Wk11 AZ, Wk12 MIA, Wk13 NE, Wk14 MIN, Wk 15 GB, WK 16 CHI

Shaun Alexander:

Wk8 OUT Wk9 OAK, Wk10 STL, Wk11 SF, Wk12 GB, Wk13 DEN, Wk14 AZ, Wk 15 SF, WK 16 SD

Both I believe have great 2nd half schedules, but I'm giving the edge to SA with a better playoff schedule.

Also KJ OLINE is banged up, that FF superbowl vs. Chicago scares me , and IMO KJ's inconsistancy is a concern.

Im either a Genius or a F'n Idiot but Im rolling the dice. Thoughts on my stratagy?

 

[bloody_hammer]

in my money league i grabbed MoMo weeks ago just so the SA owner couldn't.

sadly, he has resisted all trade offers.

i reckon' he's pouting and would rather just sweat it out for a few more weeks.

 

[flranger]

Update:

Well, the guy took the trade for Chester Taylor. I was able to flip Frye for Favre as part of the deal.

Surprised this hasn't gotten more play, this has to be a consideration in tons of leagues.

 

[ericttspikes]

I took him as the "safe" choice at #2, held on to him this long, and will just ride the injury out. IF he comes back, he will face the tastiest part of the Seahawks schedule. if you doing o.k. now without him, hold on. If you didn't get good depth at RB, see about a trade.

 

[ebzded]

Couple weeks back I traded SA away for T Bell. As suggested above, my team needed help immediately.

But there's not much discussion in the thread so far about how SA is unlikely to return to last year's form. In fact he may not even be top 15 once he comes back.

Lot of local talk in Seattle about how SA was never all that personally talented, he was just the product of his O-line. (I thought he was a beast in college, but personally, I haven't seen much quickness or speed from him in a couple of years). With the O-line changes and struggles, he was underperforming even pre-injury.

Everything here is probability of course, and far from certain. Maybe he was hurt coming into the season and we just didn't know. If I were sitting pretty for the playoffs already I might roll the dice myself - the upside is hard to ignore. But I do think any smart deal for SA needs to consider the very real possibility that SA won't be that good even when healthy. I was happy to be rid of him.

 

[flranger]

16

18

16

20

28

20 TD's average over last 5 years. That's not just the line. I have to admit I never thought much of his speed but last year he looked very quick to me. He had quite a few looong runs last season. I think he's faster than he looks.

 

[ebzded]

Why can't it just be the line? Look at the difference between LJ this year and last. Even if we want to say Huard is the reason, that still suggests that an RB's performance is heavily dependent on the players around him.

In general I think too much credit is given to individual players and not enough to the overall chemistry of their situation, which is unfortunately hard to measure. Best we can do is look at what happens after a change. So far this year, the only data we have suggests (pretty strongly I would say) that he was a system RB the last couple of years.

 

[flranger]

Your right, 100 td's in 5 years...just a product of the system. Probably same thing with Jerry Rice......just another product of the system.

Clearly he was in a good situation, and frankly I think still is. Lost Hutchinson, yes a big deal. I believe the rest of the line is still there and they have a more talented WR corps than before to keep pressure off.

Will he be top 3 again.....maybe not. But for this year, playing in wks 14-16 (Az, 49ers, Chargers) I feel very safe to say he will have at least 300 combined yards and 3 TDs. Curious how many other RBs you can say in the FFL playoffs they could get those kind of stats?

 

[428143]

He will not be 100% this season, trade him while you can...

 

[hotdogcollars]

on the flip side, i am an SA owner who did draft him top 3 and it would take A LOT for someone to wrestle him from me now. My team 2-4, but is built for the playoffs and i'm pretty confident i will get there (other teams in my divison are 2-3-1, 1-5, and 1-5. His playoff schedule looks nice and even if he splits with Mo when he gets back, SA still gets the redzone touches.