Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
The Trent Richardson Thread (5 Viewers)
- Thread starter False Start
- Start date
JohnnyU
Footballguy
fantasycurse42
Footballguy Jr.
We don't, this thread was turning into a classic... I don't understand why there is a new one after 50 something pages.
Is Trent Richardson the next Marshawn Lynch?
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/fantasy-football-today/24580362/is-trent-richardson-the-next-marshawn-lynch
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/fantasy-football-today/24580362/is-trent-richardson-the-next-marshawn-lynch
Pots
Footballguy
werdnoynek
Footballguy
Short sighted folks are going to realize they need glasses right quick this season.
MAC_32
Footballguy
As a huge Richardson fan when he came into the league that still sees the potential, those crying bounce back really don't have a leg to stand on. He may, but there is absolutely nothing he has done on the field to indicate that he will ever get it.
I'm holding in dynasty's, but he is being price pointed in my redrafts as a guy I don't need but if he hits will be huge for my team.
I'm holding in dynasty's, but he is being price pointed in my redrafts as a guy I don't need but if he hits will be huge for my team.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
Yeah, that's exactly what I thought to myself watching him play. "self, you know, if that Richardson weren't trying to do so much he'd be pretty danged good."
Ds were stacking 9 or 10 in the box to stop him? Yeah, I guess DCs decided that stopping Richardson and letting Luck throw at will was the key to beating IND.
At least he showed some honesty. "When I (missed) the cuts and holes, I said, Dang, how the heck did I miss that? How in the world did I miss that?" Because your vision and decision making is awful! Hello?!?!!
Richardson is missile you have to aim at a hole and then rely on the OL to open it. The guy just cannot create anything for himself or react quickly enough to ad lib. He's extraordinarily limited as a runner. His only saving grace for being anything more than Samkon Gado is that he catches well out of the backfield.
Honestly, I have argued against him for a while, but I am not a hater. I just can't stand the making excuses, reaching for stories on breaking tackles when you have 2.9 ypc, blaming everyone else when the other RBs looked good, blaming a "mid-season" trade when he got ignored in his 15th and 16th games with the Colts, etc.
F the excuses, let's just say that TRich was awful in 2013. No other way to say it when the only RB with 150+ carries that was worse was Old Man Street FA Out of the League Now McGahee.
Let's move on to 2014. Your post and the one above already show that both of you are assuming he will bounce back and prove the haters wrong. As ctsu has posted many times, that is a big assumption given that in his first two years he has been historically bad. I don't know why people who own him can't be objective and people that don't can't either. It is possible that he improves, he can't get worse or at least can't get worse and have anymore owners.
I think he is likely not on any of my teams because people will think about the top 10 2012 and assume 2013 was an aberration. I think he will end up going higher than he should. I see a ton of risk based on 2013 and the fact that Luck now has Hilton, Nicks, Moncrief, Wayne, Rogers, Brazil, Fleener and Allen.
I remember reading that a while ago. The part I didn't like (from Richardson's response) was:
It goes from him admitting his issues and then right back to him thinking the defenses were out to get him and not Luck. At first I thought it was sort of a good sign that maybe he got it and was going to try and do what he needed to do to improve and then I felt like it's not worth risking getting fool's gold again.
Last edited by a moderator:
Grahamburn
Footballguy
Why?Pots said:
It's amazing how quickly fantasy football guys turn on a player if they don't produce immediately when they're a unanimous #1 dynasty player.
cstu
Footballguy
Grahamburn
Footballguy
And if said RB doesn't dominate immediately they trash the guy and label him a bum during/after his second season. Brilliant.
McGarnicle
Footballguy
I would be extremely reluctant to draft this guy in the first round in redraft this year you guys. Fool me once...
Coeur de Lion
Footballguy
"Doesn't dominate right away" is a pretty far cry from what Richardson has shown this far. He's getting slammed because he's been historically bad at his primary function overall his first two years.
Bronco Billy
Footballguy
You have noticed that Richardson's career ypc is well below 4.0, and that every RB he had played with in his two years has had a higher ypc than he had in that year, right?
That indicates the problem isn't the team, it's him. He's been outperformed by every RB on both teams he's played on. His only saving graces were his workload in CLE and that he catches passes well. But as a runner he lacks significantly in direct comparison with his peers.
The problem is there are few cases of guys doing as badly as him having good careers and in those comparisons you have guys like Lynch, who went to the pro-bowl in his second season after two 1000+, 4.0 ypc+ seasons, and guys like Thomas Jones, who averaged 4.6 ypc in Tampa after he was traded and averaged 4.0 ypc in Chicago after only 1 year in Tampa.
So, after being historically bad in 2013, it seems pretty logical to trash him as the chance that he turns it around are minimal based on history. Doesn't mean he can't just that this isn't a case where he didn't "dominate" and people are leaving him for dead after a disappointing season where he finished out of the top 10. This is a guy who finished #31 in PPR and #34 in Non-PPR and played all 16 games. He finished ahead of guys like Vereen and Foster that he most likely won't this year barring more injuries. A guy like Steven Jackson had his worst year ever and missed 4 games and still outdid Richardson.
TRich can turn it around, but he wasn't disappointing and not as dominant, he was dismal, so I can see why people are ignoring him. He could turn it around, but he is a huge risk, even if drafted as a low RB2 (believe me he won't go any lower). He is a guy that could be unstartable if he doesn't improve, that is a big risk.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
There's a huge difference between "doesn't dominate" and "has one of the worst RB seasons of all-time".
Grahamburn
Footballguy
My apologies for being contrarian. I don't really need to go into the laundry list of excuses that may have negatively impacted his production. I just find it interesting how quickly a player this highly touted has been written off. It will be interesting to see how he performs this season.
FreeBaGeL
Footballguy
This thread didn't get to be 54 pages long because everyone was agreeing on the same thing. People didn't jump on your quote because it was an opposing viewpoint. There have been plenty of those. They jumped on it because you intentionally downplayed just how bad Richardson was to extend an argument that I don't think really applies here.
People don't require instant dominance. Le'Veon Bell didn't dominate last year. Nor did Giovanni Bernard or Cordarelle Patterson. Yet all of them saw an increase in value, in many cases more than guys who did dominate like Keenan Allen. Heck, even Richardson himself was given the benefit of the doubt after his rookie year.
As for that laundry list of reasons that may have negatively impacted Richardson, sure, that has its place in the discussion and I'm sure that many of them had an impact. However, he's not the first to be affected by any or even all of them. Many of those other players were not supposed to be nearly as talented as Richardson was and none of them were near as bad as Richardson was, so it stands to reason that maybe Richardson wasn't as good as we thought.
It has nothing to do with requiring instant dominance. The list of guys that have played as poorly as Richardson has and gone on to be as good as Richardson was supposed to be is extremely short, and maybe even completely empty when we consider the extent of just how bad things have gotten. It makes sense that people would drastically change their valuations on the guy given that.
Last edited by a moderator:
Grahamburn
Footballguy
He went from being the best RB prospect in a decade to a complete bum in two seasons in many fantasy football circles. All I'm saying is I find that interesting.
In terms of fantasy he actually went from a young, injury prone but still top 10 fantasy RB to healthy young bum in just one season. That's the part I find interesting.
Jrodicus
Footballguy
I agree.
I think the backlash is a result of a few things - how hyped up he was by a number of people, the expectations for him going into the season, and the desire of some to say, "See, I TOLD YOU SO!!!!! Lolz!!!!111!!"
If he had averaged 7.5 YPC last season, there would've been people claiming, "I knew all along his average would be that high!"
Instead, he had a horrible YPC last season, so there are people coming out of the woodwork claiming that they knew TRich was a horrible (not just average) RB all along. I really would love to see a post that someone made prior to the 2013 season where they predicted he would have a sub 3.0 YPC average.
At this point I don't really see much value in rehashing his 2013 season. If you think that it was all Trent's fault (since the other Indy RBs had a higher YPC average), you'll be called a hater, and if you try to justify his performance (changed teams, usage, playbook, O-line, play calling), you'll be called delusional.
In reality, none of us know definitively what TRich will do in in 2014. We have our opinions and our gut feelings on his floor and ceiling, but we don't have a crystal ball.
Bob Barker
Footballguy
Any Vegas or online sportsbooks have any over/under prop bets for his stats this season? Be interesting to see how the oddsmakers feel about his outlook this season
ROYALWITCHEESE
Footballguy
When I watch his "good" highlight tape from 2012, he looks like he's in quicksand compared to the defense. I don't find a rebound likely, unless you consider 225 carries for 850 yards, 30 rec for 150 yards, and total 8 TDs a rebound...
cstu
Footballguy
I, for one, had no idea he was going to be this bad going into 2013. Didn't think he was great in 2012 but I bought the 'ribs' excuse and thought he would look better in 2013. He in fact looked worse, even the first couple games of 2013 with the Browns.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
He is the Ryan Leaf of RBs.
What are all the excuses for why he didnt play well his rookie season? Or the first few games last year while still in Cleveland?
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I didnt buy the ribs excuse because he didnt play any better when he was totally healthy.
I wasn't a fan and didn't have him in any leagues. Like ctsu, I didn't think he was great in 2012, so there was no way he would be on my teams with where he was being drafted. All I remembered about 2012 was when I played him was those 2 weeks with 2 rushing TDs that saved crappy games. He had 29 rushes for 70 yards and 4 TDs (3 of which were 1 yarders).
I did have Brown at RB2 due to injuries, so I was pretty aware of the comparison of the two.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Jrodicus
Footballguy
I wasn't that high on him as a rookie. I mean, I thought he put up decent fantasy numbers despite being on bad team, but I didn't own him in any of my leagues because I thought he was being WAY overvalued. Somehow, the trade to the Colts shot his value up even more.
I'm a Colts' season ticket holder and saw almost every snap of their games this year, many in person. I don't know that he will ever live up to the hype (which was almost impossible anyway considering how high some people valued him), but I saw enough last year that makes me believe not everything was his fault, the things that were his fault can be corrected, and he still has the potential to be a viable starting NFL running back going forward. I'm not predicting that he will have a HOF career by any means, but I also think it's too soon to write him off.
His perceived value has come down enough in most of my leagues enough that I have been able to acquire him for what I believe to be a reasonable amount. Yes, there's a ton of risk with him, but there is still plenty of potential upside as well.
I'm a Colts' season ticket holder and saw almost every snap of their games this year, many in person. I don't know that he will ever live up to the hype (which was almost impossible anyway considering how high some people valued him), but I saw enough last year that makes me believe not everything was his fault, the things that were his fault can be corrected, and he still has the potential to be a viable starting NFL running back going forward. I'm not predicting that he will have a HOF career by any means, but I also think it's too soon to write him off.
His perceived value has come down enough in most of my leagues enough that I have been able to acquire him for what I believe to be a reasonable amount. Yes, there's a ton of risk with him, but there is still plenty of potential upside as well.
Jrodicus
Footballguy
Defenses did stack the box...but that was because the play calling was so painfully predictable most of the season that everyone and their brother knew what the play was going to be. I don't think they were afraid of Richardson as much as they were just licking their chops because they knew a dive play was coming.
I keep hearing that stated, but how come this happened:
Game 1: Other Colts RBs: 20-89 (4.5ypc)
Game 2: Other Colts RBs: 22-95 (4.3ypc)
Game 3: Other Colts RBs: 22-120 (5.5ypc) TRich: 13-35 (2.7ypc)
Game 11: Other Colts RBs: 15-84 (5.6ypc) TRich: 8-22 (2.8ypc)
Game 16: Other Colts RBs: 17-49 (2.9ypc) TRich: 8-25 (3.1ypc)
Game 18: Other Colts RBs: 17-63 (3.7ypc) TRich: 3-1 (0.3ypc)
There were only 6 games where the other Colts RBs had 15+ carries, i.e. were the primary RBs. They averaged 4.4ypc for the season when TRich wasn't the primary back, including 2 games where TRich was never mentioned in the opponents meetings/play calling. In the games with both, they beat his ypc by 2.8, 2.8 and 3.4 and in one game TRich was better by 0.2ypc. The other Colts RBs were effective running the ball when they got a chance.
Also, note that in 6 games where the other Colts RBs got primary carries, they beat TRich's best rushing game (in 16 games with the Colts and 2 with Browns) by 20, 25, 31 and 56 yards. The other two games were 1 yard less than TRich's best game (better than 17 of his 18 games) and 15 yards less than TRich's best game.
Jrodicus
Footballguy
You asked the question "I keep hearing that stated, but how come this happened?"
Do you want an actual answer, or was that rhetorical and you're just looking for another opportunity to discuss the stats that have already been discussed ad nauseam?
You've read enough of my prior responses to this to know my answer. I've read enough of your responses to know how you are going to respond to my response.
You base your opinion predominantly on his YPC, and I doubt you're changing your mind. I base my opinion on some other stats and events that happened (which you dismiss), and I'm not chaning my mind. I mean, what's the point? Who are you trying to convince?
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Wrong seasons.
His rookie season he had off-season knee surgery, a knee scope in camp and broke ribs in-season. So if you go back and read most of the Trent threads from last off season there was some concern about his low YPC and that he looked like an average talent but most of the concern had to do with his ability to stay healthy. Personally I thought even if those injuries did not exist his rookie year he still played well, not great, but pretty good. He was a better fantasy player than real player that season but I thought he played fairly well. Did not think he needed excuses made for him at all but yes I did think with a fully healthy off-season he would play better.
Then he plays two healthy games with Cleveland and actually looks the same if not not worse than the previous season despite being healthy and despite playing in what was supposed to be a great system for RB's. So I can see why Ghostguy and anyone else might say they are not buying the rib injury or knee issues of his rookie season because he looked no better in those two games with the Browns last season. Then he gets traded and the wheels completely fall off and that is at least somewhat justifiable but he still did not look anymore explosive then when he had the injuries his rookie year.
That's all part of the mystery of this guy. How can he be healthier and look worse? Getting traded may help explain a lot of what went wrong with Indy but he still had the two poor games with Cleveland to start the season and in general looked slower to me than the injured version. I can't explain it myself other than some mythical sophomore slump excuse or maybe the new systems(both Norv's and the Colts) was making him think to much and play slower.
The shoulder surgery was this off-season but I don't recall him ever being listed on the injury report for the shoulder.
I've recently gone back and watched both games of his against LSU his last season, a few games of his rookie season and a few last year and he's looks like he's gotten slower every year. That should not be happening to a guy his age.
Still I'm relatively high on him as a fantasy RB. Relative being the key word. If he was in my rookie draft I'd have him rated lower then I had him rated in startup drafts last season so I'm not as nearly as high on him as I previously was, but still believe he's going to be at least a solid NFL RB and better fantasy RB.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Good post. What I took from that is Trent has been pretty dinged up. Not sure if that means he will get better when healthy or if he will always be dinged up.menobrown said:
cstu
Footballguy
ghostguy123
Footballguy
He'd probably call that 20.Sounds like the title of his sextape.humpback said:10 in the box.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
He had shoulder surgery after this season and is still the Colts starting rb, so an NFL team that is paying him millions must have excused him.
MAC_32
Footballguy
they paid a first round pick for him, kinda hard to justify moving past him right now. They have plan b's in place though.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
There is a plan b for all players. That is the depth chart. In Trents case, there is no threat to his playing time unless he is injured.MAC_32 said:
