Things I'm Noticing while doing Projections for each Team/Player (1 Viewer)

[Scoresman]

One of my favorite aspects of projecting is seeing how my player ranks sort out after doing each team's projections. When you project this way, your rankings lose any sense of personal bias. For example, if you had asked me before looking at all this where I would rank Caleb Williams this year, I'd be confident enough to say he's top 10. However, even after projecting Chicago's offense much better than last year, he's still ranked only 12th. Not sure how I feel about that, but it's interesting for sure.

Here are my top 20 QBs at this point.

1 Josh Allen
2 Lamar Jackson
3 Jalen Hurts
4 Jayden Daniels
5 Joe Burrow
6 Baker Mayfield
7 J.J. McCarthy
8 Bo Nix
9 Jared Goff
10 Patrick Mahomes II
11 Kyler Murray
12 Caleb Williams
13 Dak Prescott
14 Justin Fields
15 Brock Purdy
16 Drake Maye
17 Trevor Lawrence
18 Justin Herbert
19 C.J. Stroud
20 Bryce Young

In terms of gut feeling, I would bump Williams, maybe Prescott, and lower Murray and Goff. Also, I'm pretty high on McCarthy this year, but that seems too high.

 

[Scoresman]

Other positional rankings. Standard scoring.

Top 25 RBS

1 Bijan Robinson
2 Jahmyr Gibbs
3 Derrick Henry
4 Saquon Barkley
5 Josh Jacobs
6 Ashton Jeanty
7 Christian McCaffrey
8 Bucky Irving
9 Kyren Williams
10 Jonathan Taylor
11 De'von Achane
12 Chase Brown
13 James Cook
14 D'Andre Swift
15 Joe Mixon
16 Breece Hall
17 Aaron Jones Sr.
18 Chuba Hubbard
19 Omarion Hampton
20 James Conner
21 Alvin Kamara
22 Tony Pollard
23 David Montgomery
24 Kenneth Walker III
25 Kaleb Johnson

Not a ton on the surface I think is grossly incorrect here. Maybe I did let a little injury bias influence my Kenneth Walker projection because he seems low here.

Top 25 WRs
1 Ja'Marr Chase
2 Amon-Ra St. Brown
3 Justin Jefferson
4 CeeDee Lamb
5 Brian Thomas Jr.
6 Drake London
7 Nico Collins
8 Tee Higgins
9 Puka Nacua
10 Calvin Ridley
11 Malik Nabers
12 Jameson Williams
13 Courtland Sutton
14 Tyreek Hill
15 Terry McLaurin
16 Marvin Harrison Jr.
17 Mike Evans
18 A.J. Brown
19 DeVonta Smith
20 Ladd McConkey
21 Zay Flowers
22 Davante Adams
23 Jordan Addison
24 Jerry Jeudy
25 Garrett Wilson

I know I'm bullish on Calvin Ridley but top 10 is pretty bold. I can also think of no reason why I should be that low on Nabers. Will be looking at that for sure.

Top 20 TEs

1 Trey McBride
2 George Kittle
3 Jonnu Smith
4 Brock Bowers
5 Sam LaPorta
6 Mark Andrews
7 Tucker Kraft
8 David Njoku
9 Pat Freiermuth
10 T.J. Hockenson
11 Travis Kelce
12 Cade Otton
13 Hunter Henry
14 Dallas Goedert
15 Dalton Schultz
16 Jake Ferguson
17 Zach Ertz
18 Colston Loveland
19 Juwan Johnson
20 Brenton Strange

This seems alright I guess. Bit high for Jonnu, but I do really like him.

 

[TheWinz]

@Scoresman
A huge tip of the hat to you. Great work as always!

 

[TheWinz]

lower Goff

You have him finishing 2 spots lower than last year, while at the same time projecting
Gibbs - RB2, alot of this is coming via the pass from Goff
ARSB - WR2 - all of this is coming from Goff
Jamo - WR12 - all but a few runs are coming from Goff
LaPorta - TE5 - all of this is coming from Goff

I'm confused

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I would probably lean towards trusting those original projections.

 

[Scoresman]

lower Goff

You have him finishing 2 spots lower than last year, while at the same time projecting
Gibbs - RB2, alot of this is coming via the pass from Goff
ARSB - WR2 - all of this is coming from Goff
Jamo - WR12 - all but a few runs are coming from Goff
LaPorta - TE5 - all of this is coming from Goff

I'm confused

Dont know what to say. I do have built in checks to make sure my QB passing yards equal my WR receiving yards and stuff like that. So it checks out.

I think my "gut" is influenced by all the articles you read about how running QBs are cheat codes and guys like Goff suffer comparatively. He does just fine as a passer, but there is a void where many other QBs have rushing numbers.

So probably dont have to lower Goff, but I know I probably wouldn't draft him either unless he really slips.

 

[TheWinz]

So probably dont have to lower Goff, but I know I probably wouldn't draft him either unless he really slips.

Or perhaps in a league where it's 1 pt per 20 yds passing, along with 6 per passing TD?