Thinking of taking M.Bell late Rd 4 (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

I've been drinking a lot of Bell koolaid guys. This was going to be my Ron Dayne pick up until about a week ago, with M Bell being my late round handcuff. I was never and still am not sold on Tatum Bell. I think the TB lacks instincts, vision and maturity.

OTOH, M Bell seems to only lack speed, but has everything else you look for. I really like that this kid has worked his way up and is now poised to be the next great Denver back. At worst he sounds like a young Mike Anderson. The hard part is I'm basing this solely on what I've read as we've yet to actually see him in action. Usually, I wouldn't do something like that, but this is the Donkie running game we're talking about. Pure fantasy gold if you can get a hold if it!

I think I can recover from my 4th rounder busting in the extreme downward scenario.

What say you guys? I'm obviously nuts, but is anyone with me? And if not, what round would you take him in a 10 team league w/2 RBs.

 

[mightyeskimo]

No way I take that guy over Dunn.

 

[The Jerk]

I've been drinking a lot of Bell koolaid guys. This was going to be my Ron Dayne pick up until about a week ago, with M Bell being my late round handcuff. I was never and still am not sold on Tatum Bell. I think the TB lacks instincts, vision and maturity.OTOH, M Bell seems to only lack speed, but has everything else you look for. I really like that this kid has worked his way up and is now poised to be the next great Denver back. At worst he sounds like a young Mike Anderson. The hard part is I'm basing this solely on what I've read as we've yet to actually see him in action. Usually, I wouldn't do something like that, but this is the Donkie running game we're talking about. Pure fantasy gold if you can get a hold if it!I think I can recover from my 4th rounder busting in the extreme downward scenario.What say you guys? I'm obviously nuts, but is anyone with me? And if not, what round would you take him in a 10 team league w/2 RBs.

You obviously know that there are much safer picks available at this point unless it's a 20+ team league... right?If you're dead set on getting him, I'd still wait at least two more rounds as I doubt anyone else in your league is as eager as you to get him. But that's just me.

 

[LawFitz]

You obviously know that there are much safer picks available at this point unless it's a 20+ team league... right?

If you're dead set on getting him, I'd still wait at least two more rounds as I doubt anyone else in your league is as eager as you to get him. But that's just me.

10 teams.

I was thinking that, but I'm not sure he'll be available late Rd 6. The other player I want in Rd 4-5 would be Driver who will be available with my early 5th pick and I know there's another Donkie running game whore at the turn in between my 4/5 pix. I worry that he may go for the Bell-Bell special on the turn.

I figure to get Dayne somewhere in the late rounds as the handcuff to secure what I consider at least 60% of the running snaps.

 

[The Jerk]

If you think he's the key to your season, go right ahead. It seems to be an incredibly high risk strategy. Unnecessary to me as I think there are many ways to build a solid team and RB corps, not just with the Broncos RB.

 

[LawFitz]

No way I take that guy over Dunn.

I originally thought the same about Dunn until I saw his catch stats from last season. He only caught 29 balls. It seems that when he gets the rushing stats, he doesn't get the receiving stats. And in either case he doesn't get a very high amount of TDs.In the end Warrick is a VERY reliable, but mediocre back. I guess it's a matter of risk/reward and I like the reward of the main Donkie runner.

 

[The Jerk]

No way I take that guy over Dunn.

I originally thought the same about Dunn until I saw his catch stats from last season. He only caught 29 balls. It seems that when he gets the rushing stats, he doesn't get the receiving stats. And in either case he doesn't get a very high amount of TDs.In the end Warrick is a VERY reliable, but mediocre back. I guess it's a matter of risk/reward and I like the reward of the main Donkie runner.

But your reward to risk ratio is way out of proportion. First, you don't know MBell will get more than part of the workload. In fact, you're pretty sure he won't. Second, he's never performed at the NFL level.Dunn may be lower ceiling, but he's a much higher floor and a much lower risk.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

until dunn is playing without duckett stealing his tds i'll pass on him...

as for bell, i agree you could stand to wait a round or two.

 

[JohnnyU]

When the other Bell is running with the first team next week, then Dayne the week after that, then Cobbs....., would you still make that pick in rd 4?

 

[The Jerk]

until dunn is playing without duckett stealing his tds i'll pass on him...as for bell, i agree you could stand to wait a round or two.

Actually, I agree that Dunn is not super-attractive. Yet he's still got a better reward/risk ratio than Mike Bell in round 4. Especially with 10 teams in the league.Bell in the 6th or 7th may start to overtake Dunn. I guess it depends on the league. More power to you, LawFitz, if Bell blows up big. You'll look great. However, don't be more interested in trying to show how clever you are by drafting Bell rather than just drafting the best team.

 

[LawFitz]

until dunn is playing without duckett stealing his tds i'll pass on him...as for bell, i agree you could stand to wait a round or two.

Since my 4th and 5th rounder are so close, there's no point in waiting one round. The guy I want in that area of the draft is Driver and he'll be around in Rd 5. If not, another decent WR2 (Mason, Jackson) should be.If I wait until Rd 6, I think the odds of getting Bell drop significantly. Everyone knows he's the Denver starter now. It was announced on freakin ESPN days ago already! It's not a FBG message board secret anymore.

 

[JohnnyU]

until dunn is playing without duckett stealing his tds i'll pass on him...

as for bell, i agree you could stand to wait a round or two.

Since my 4th and 5th rounder are so close, there's no point in waiting one round. The guy I want in that area of the draft is Driver and he'll be around in Rd 5. If not, another decent WR2 (Mason, Jackson) should be.If I wait until Rd 6, I think the odds of getting Bell drop significantly. Everyone knows he's the Denver starter now flavor of the week. It was announced on freakin ESPN days ago already! It's not a FBG message board secret anymore.

fixed

 

[The Jerk]

until dunn is playing without duckett stealing his tds i'll pass on him...as for bell, i agree you could stand to wait a round or two.

Since my 4th and 5th rounder are so close, there's no point in waiting one round. The guy I want in that area of the draft is Driver and he'll be around in Rd 5. If not, another decent WR2 (Mason, Jackson) should be.If I wait until Rd 6, I think the odds of getting Bell drop significantly. Everyone knows he's the Denver starter now. It was announced on freakin ESPN days ago already! It's not a FBG message board secret anymore.

I think you're putting too much credence into a comment made by Shanahan. I don't think he declared Mike Bell was the starter for the rest of the season. It's not even clear if he'll be the starter in Week 1 by what I've heard.

 

[DrJ]

You'd probably rather have the guy that takes over after M Bell, Shanahan will probably reward the fullback at some point ala Droughns.

 

[LawFitz]

until dunn is playing without duckett stealing his tds i'll pass on him...as for bell, i agree you could stand to wait a round or two.

Actually, I agree that Dunn is not super-attractive. Yet he's still got a better reward/risk ratio than Mike Bell in round 4. Especially with 10 teams in the league.Bell in the 6th or 7th may start to overtake Dunn. I guess it depends on the league. More power to you, LawFitz, if Bell blows up big. You'll look great. However, don't be more interested in trying to show how clever you are by drafting Bell rather than just drafting the best team.

I guess I like to go for the home-run picks. Sometimes I bust, sometimes I hit. But when you get a top 5 RB handcuff in rd 4 and r 12, you're suddenly pretty far ahead in the game. Yet if you bust a 4th rounder, you're not that far behind.That's the risk/reward that I see.

 

[MLBrandow]

You mean he's still available?

 

[JohnnyU]

until dunn is playing without duckett stealing his tds i'll pass on him...as for bell, i agree you could stand to wait a round or two.

Actually, I agree that Dunn is not super-attractive. Yet he's still got a better reward/risk ratio than Mike Bell in round 4. Especially with 10 teams in the league.Bell in the 6th or 7th may start to overtake Dunn. I guess it depends on the league. More power to you, LawFitz, if Bell blows up big. You'll look great. However, don't be more interested in trying to show how clever you are by drafting Bell rather than just drafting the best team.

I guess I like to go for the home-run picks. Sometimes I bust, sometimes I hit. But when you get a top 5 RB handcuff in rd 4 and r 12, you're suddenly pretty far ahead in the game. Yet if you bust a 4th rounder, you're not that far behind.That's the risk/reward that I see.

4th rounders are more important to league success than 1st rounders. Anyone can hit on a 1st rounder, but when you bust a 4th rounder, it really hurts IMO.

 

[DrJ]

Isn't the 2nd guy to get the job in Denver historically the one to have?

 

[LawFitz]

until dunn is playing without duckett stealing his tds i'll pass on him...

as for bell, i agree you could stand to wait a round or two.

Since my 4th and 5th rounder are so close, there's no point in waiting one round. The guy I want in that area of the draft is Driver and he'll be around in Rd 5. If not, another decent WR2 (Mason, Jackson) should be.If I wait until Rd 6, I think the odds of getting Bell drop significantly. Everyone knows he's the Denver starter now flavor of the week. It was announced on freakin ESPN days ago already! It's not a FBG message board secret anymore.

fixed

Odds are you are correct, but I don't see Shanny as a mind gamer to the extent he'd make this move. I think he likes the kid, sees something that others didn't and is giving him a legitimate chance. And I don't know everything about the kid, but reading his draft profiles I really like his chances, assuming he stays healthy.Speed is overrated in the Donkie running game. Other than Portis, none of their recent run of 1000 Yd guys had significant NFL speed.

What they did have was heart, vision and desire. And Shanny ran them into the ground. I'm simply betting the kid grabs a hold of the situation and doesn't let go unless he gets hurt or develops fumbling issues. Sometimes you get a feeling just based on what you read about a guys background coming into the situation.

I'm simply betting my 4th rounder on the limited facts I have. Upside is an extra 1st rounder to pair with a big 3 RB, downside is a worthless pick. I think I can survive the downside to lock up the kid that leapt two vets to grab hold of the best running game in the NFL.

 

[Portis 26]

Isn't the 2nd guy to get the job in Denver historically the one to have?

Terrell Davis: Olandis GaryOlandis Gary: Mike AndersonOlandis Gary: Clinton PortisQuentin Griffin: Reuben Droughns

 

[wraith5]

until dunn is playing without duckett stealing his tds i'll pass on him...as for bell, i agree you could stand to wait a round or two.

Actually, I agree that Dunn is not super-attractive. Yet he's still got a better reward/risk ratio than Mike Bell in round 4. Especially with 10 teams in the league.Bell in the 6th or 7th may start to overtake Dunn. I guess it depends on the league. More power to you, LawFitz, if Bell blows up big. You'll look great. However, don't be more interested in trying to show how clever you are by drafting Bell rather than just drafting the best team.

I guess I like to go for the home-run picks. Sometimes I bust, sometimes I hit. But when you get a top 5 RB handcuff in rd 4 and r 12, you're suddenly pretty far ahead in the game. Yet if you bust a 4th rounder, you're not that far behind.That's the risk/reward that I see.

You seem very firm in your position - so more power to you. Personally I think it's too big a risk that early - in a 10 team league at least. Unless you guys go so RB heavy that 25+ RB's area already gone that early... at which point there would be tremendous value at other positions!! Too many things can happen in that backfield at this point.

 

[LawFitz]

You mean he's still available?

Wow, so how early will you be taking him?Or are you attempting to be facetious? Sorry, I can't tell by the curt respose.

 

[JohnnyU]

until dunn is playing without duckett stealing his tds i'll pass on him...

as for bell, i agree you could stand to wait a round or two.

Since my 4th and 5th rounder are so close, there's no point in waiting one round. The guy I want in that area of the draft is Driver and he'll be around in Rd 5. If not, another decent WR2 (Mason, Jackson) should be.If I wait until Rd 6, I think the odds of getting Bell drop significantly. Everyone knows he's the Denver starter now flavor of the week. It was announced on freakin ESPN days ago already! It's not a FBG message board secret anymore.

fixed

Odds are you are correct, but I don't see Shanny as a mind gamer to the extent he'd make this move. I think he likes the kid, sees something that others didn't and is giving him a legitimate chance. And I don't know everything about the kid, but reading his draft profiles I really like his chances, assuming he stays healthy.Speed is overrated in the Donkie running game. Other than Portis, none of their recent run of 1000 Yd guys had significant NFL speed.

What they did have was heart, vision and desire. And Shanny ran them into the ground. I'm simply betting the kid grabs a hold of the situation and doesn't let go unless he gets hurt or develops fumbling issues. Sometimes you get a feeling just based on what you read about a guys background coming into the situation.

I'm simply betting my 4th rounder on the limited facts I have. Upside is an extra 1st rounder to pair with a big 3 RB, downside is a worthless pick. I think I can survive the downside to lock up the kid that leapt two vets to grab hold of the best running game in the NFL.

I'm saying don't do it. The headache it will cause you this year will be unbearable.

 

[wraith5]

You mean he's still available?

Wow, so how early will you be taking him?Or are you attempting to be facetious? Sorry, I can't tell by the curt respose.

I believe that was

 

[Mario Kart]

This guy should be going in the middle or the end of the 3rd round. If you get him in the 4th that is a steal. Draft him in the 3rd and laugh your way to a league title.

 

[JohnnyU]

This guy should be going in the middle or the end of the 3rd round. If you get him in the 4th that is a steal. Draft him in the 3rd and laugh your way to a league title.

Now he's serious, don't do that to the feller.

 

[wraith5]

This guy should be going in the middle or the end of the 3rd round. If you get him in the 4th that is a steal. Draft him in the 3rd and laugh your way to a league title.

 

[Mario Kart]

This guy should be going in the middle or the end of the 3rd round. If you get him in the 4th that is a steal. Draft him in the 3rd and laugh your way to a league title.

Now he's serious, don't do that to the feller.

I am being totally serious Johnny. Mike Bell is what separates the player versus the played.

 

[LawFitz]

This guy should be going in the middle or the end of the 3rd round. If you get him in the 4th that is a steal. Draft him in the 3rd and laugh your way to a league title.

Hate all you want. It was guys like you that talked me out of Larry Johnson in Rd 5 last year.Sometimes you just got to roll the dice bro.Just understand, any of you who think you want to get this guy and are drafting this weekend or sooner. There is gotta be at least one guy in your leagues horny for the Denver running game. And if that guy hits on this pick, you better hope he doesn't have a good team already without the pick.Or you have to beat him to it.This guy is willing to risk a 4th/5th for the Donkie running game. How late do you think Terrell Davis was picked his first year in most leagues? How about Portis?

 

[Slinger]

LawFitz. Larry Johnson was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Bell is undrafted and Mike Shanahan flips flops on RB's like crazy. If you select him in the 4th round you have zero chance of going to the playoffs this year.

 

[Mario Kart]

This guy should be going in the middle or the end of the 3rd round. If you get him in the 4th that is a steal. Draft him in the 3rd and laugh your way to a league title.

Hate all you want. It was guys like you that talked me out of Larry Johnson in Rd 5 last year.Sometimes you just got to roll the dice bro.Just understand, any of you who think you want to get this guy and are drafting this weekend or sooner. There is gotta be at least one guy in your leagues horny for the Denver running game. And if that guy hits on this pick, you better hope he doesn't have a good team already without the pick.Or you have to beat him to it.This guy is willing to risk a 4th/5th for the Donkie running game. How late do you think Terrell Davis was picked his first year in most leagues? How about Portis?

How am I hating on you? And, what kind of guy am I since I am "talking you out of the pick?" I am telling you to take him.

 

[LawFitz]

How am I hating on you? And, what kind of guy am I since I am "talking you out of the pick?" I am telling you to take him.

Where would you take him?

 

[Mario Kart]

How am I hating on you? And, what kind of guy am I since I am "talking you out of the pick?" I am telling you to take him.

Where would you take him?

I thought my initial post in this thread answered that question.

 

[LawFitz]

LawFitz. Larry Johnson was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Bell is undrafted and Mike Shanahan flips flops on RB's like crazy. If you select him in the 4th round you have zero chance of going to the playoffs this year.

Priest Holmes was undrafted.Systems can matter as much or more than a player's NFL draft status on whether he's a fantasy stud.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

LawFitz, my question to you is - when is your draft?

If your draft is very soon, you can probably wait til round 6 or so in a 10-teamer. On the other hand, if he pulls farther ahead of Tatum and Ron in the next few weeks, then his stock rises. So, for me, it all comes down to when your draft is. I know that if I had to draft today, I would gladly draft him, but not until round 10 or so. Only FF'ers with massive cajones would risk a 4th on him at this stage. He may end up being RB4 in DEN by week 1.

 

[LawFitz]

How am I hating on you? And, what kind of guy am I since I am "talking you out of the pick?" I am telling you to take him.

Where would you take him?

I thought my initial post in this thread answered that question.

Well my friend, it sounds like you are even crazier than me. Good luck to us both.

 

[MLBrandow]

I tell you what... let's just assume for a minute he's the starting RB, and Bell is the change of pace back.

Just what kind of numbers would you expect?

300car @ 4.4 + 10-12TD?

What kind of hands does he have?

say 1400 all purpose and 10 TDs? Does that sound other-worldly for him if he starts W1 and all season?

Where does this put him?

 

[Slinger]

LawFitz. Larry Johnson was selected in the first round of the NFL Draft. Bell is undrafted and Mike Shanahan flips flops on RB's like crazy. If you select him in the 4th round you have zero chance of going to the playoffs this year.

Priest Holmes was undrafted.Systems can matter as much or more than a player's NFL draft status on whether he's a fantasy stud.

You're right. At the same time you could've got Priest Holmes much later in the draft. Same goes with Mike Bell. I'm all for drafting him, but not so soon.

 

[LawFitz]

I tell you what... let's just assume for a minute he's the starting RB, and Bell is the change of pace back.Just what kind of numbers would you expect?300car @ 4.4 + 10-12TD?What kind of hands does he have?say 1400 all purpose and 10 TDs? Does that sound other-worldly for him if he starts W1 and all season?Where does this put him?

I'd say if he started and played 16 games with at least 60-65% of the running snaps, that would be the floor, with the ceiling being much, much higher.

 

[MLBrandow]

Law, how much have you seen Mike Bell play with your own eyes?

 

[LawFitz]

Law, how much have you seen Mike Bell play with your own eyes?

Very little. And in what I did see, he didn't really stand out. But, I wouldn't even consider making this kind of bet on any other team.But the Donks have a very special sitiation. Read his bio. Read what the mini camp reports on this very board have said about how he's looked in orange so far. Read into the move by Shanny.I personally, think Shanny's more of a straight shooter than most perceive. I also think Shanny's got a keen eye for the types of RBs that will fit his system.Lastly, I think there's a less than 50% chance of him falling to late rd 6 in any league where guys are paying attention to the situation. So it's the 4/5 spot or probably not at all.

 

[MLBrandow]

damn, I think I'm buying in.

 

[mueller54]

Taking Mike Bell in the top 60 picks is insane. The guy was just ok at Zona and wasn't even drafted. Shanny also took Clarett to fit his system.

 

[TheLastDispatch]

until dunn is playing without duckett stealing his tds i'll pass on him...as for bell, i agree you could stand to wait a round or two.

Actually, I agree that Dunn is not super-attractive. Yet he's still got a better reward/risk ratio than Mike Bell in round 4. Especially with 10 teams in the league.Bell in the 6th or 7th may start to overtake Dunn. I guess it depends on the league. More power to you, LawFitz, if Bell blows up big. You'll look great. However, don't be more interested in trying to show how clever you are by drafting Bell rather than just drafting the best team.

Just for clarity i like dunn more than bell in the 4th too. i was just commenting on dunn, i didnt mean that in relation to bell. sorry for the miscommunication

 

[LawFitz]

Taking Mike Bell in the top 60 picks is insane. The guy was just ok at Zona and wasn't even drafted. Shanny also took Clarett to fit his system.

Good point about Clarett. But he was a bum from the first mini camp on.Vs this kid who's doing and saying all the right things. It wouldn't be the first time Shanny took a low graded guy to the top of the fantasy food chain.

 

[mueller54]

no, but doing it with an undrafted rookie in his rookie year seems a bit of a reach

 

[LawFitz]

no, but doing it with an undrafted rookie in his rookie year seems a bit of a reach

Weren't Davis, Anderson, and Gary all low graded rookies when they blew up?I mean is there really that much of a difference between 2nd day project guys in general? One man's trash...

 

[phillzphan]

this guy has been doing this for like a week. don't buy into all this just yet.

 

[LawFitz]

this guy has been doing this for like a week. don't buy into all this just yet.

I know, but I'm drafting this weekend. I have to decide with only a little more info than I have right now.In the end, I have to decide whether I can wait until Rd 6 or if I have to jump the gun in rd 4.

 

[Dirty Weasel]

this guy has been doing this for like a week. don't buy into all this just yet.

I know, but I'm drafting this weekend. I have to decide with only a little more info than I have right now.In the end, I have to decide whether I can wait until Rd 6 or if I have to jump the gun in rd 4.

Wait until round 6. If your draft is this weekend, you will be the only one targeting him in the 4th round. As a matter of fact, I bet Tatum goes before the 6th to someone still holding hope that he wins the starting job back. Heck, a Dayne lover may even take Dayne around the 6th. But then again, if you have confidence that Mike Bell is gonna become the starter, I guess you gotta go with your gut and nab him in the 4th.