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What fun would that be? Plus how would that help?
It probably wouldn't be any fun but it would create a more accurate picture as you can find the balance between "high expectations" and "worst case scenario." It would help minimize the bust factor as well, IMO and help evaluators look more at the complete package including past production, then merely physical talent (which is what most ceilings/player comparisons are based on).
Isn't worst case scenario for all rookies to completely bust?
This would be the same for every prospect:A bad "floor" = out of the league after their rookie contract is expired or cut before that.
I personally find the "He is like Barry Sanders with a few less moves" and "He is a small LT" quite useful.
Worst case scenario, all RBs - Maurice Clarett, Ki-Jana Carter, Lawrence PhillipsWorst case scenario, all QBs - Akili Smith, Ryan LeafWorst case scenario, all WRs - Charles Rogers, Rae CarruthHow is this helpful, exactly?
I would think being cut or on PS would be the floor. I'd say Mike Hart is likely a 3rd down/ST guy so he would have a better floor as a lot of the guys he's ranked around. Jacob Hester is another special teams guy. As well as the guys that can return kicks and punts like Chris Johnson. At least you know they'll make the active roster...
Best case scenario, all RBs - LaDainian Tomlinson, Walter PaytonBest case scenario, all QBs - Peyton Manning, Steve YoungBest case scenario, all WRs - Marvin Harrison, Braylon EdwardsYet people seem to have no problem discussing a player's ceiling all the time. Some discussion on floors is just as useful, IMO.
I really don't like to talk about either - I prefer to rely on what the player has done and the situation and surroundings he gets on Draft Day for the next 3-4 years (barring coaching / FO changes).Floors and ceilings really don't help. The sky is the limit and so is Death Valley.
Which are safe picks another words.Non. Anyone saying that anyone is a safe pick is crazy. One play the guy gets hurt. So question you want is who will do the best at the next level.Rankings. So McFadden is the safest pick. No way He's not. All or nothing Johnson,F.Jones,and yes Mendenhall(to me one year means little). Hope this helps?
high risk/high reward players are those that do not have a track record (pun intended) for starting. You know the part timers (Jones) and the guys that have only done it for 1 year (Mendenhal).low risk/moderate reward are the safe plays where you know what you get with the guy (Rice).More fit into the first category than in the second.No. 16 said:
I tihnk what you are looking for is:Jonathon Stewart - ceiling Jamal Lewis, floor TJ DuckettRashard Mendenhall - ceiling SJax, floor DFosterMcFadden - ceiling Dickerson, floor Michael BennettFJones - ceiling Marshall Faulk, floor Jerious NorwoodThose are IMO the realistic high and low comparisons for those players, take out the highs and you have the floors... hence why I have Mendenhall #1 and Jones #2... I think their floors are higher than the other 2...
I like the way switz has done it. My take in terms of FF impact (not necessarily playing style):
I don't see why it was so hard for anyone to answer the OP's question. This thing got hijacked in a hurry.McFadden - the first thing I thought of for a floor was Jerious Norwood. But probably a rich man's Jerious Norwood. A very talented breakaway runner with bird legs who will have difficulty running between the tackles or ever sustaining 300-350 carries. Might be best with a change of pace behind him ala Julius Jones and MBIII athough Jones was ahead of MB in the starting lineup. So my floor for McFadden was a rich man's Jerious Norwood.F Jones - ceiling Marshall Faulk? wow .... there's less of a fit for Jones IMO but I think the floor for Jones would be Tatum Bell. Both are speed backs. Both could probably be a team's guy at some point in their career out of need, i.e., Tatum was the #1 in Denver, but really aren't starter types or at least good starters. A type of starter that teams would like to replace. Actually Norwood and Tatum aren't that different but the differentiation between Norwood and Bell is the leg build in Norwood and he also seems to have more breakaway ability and explosiveness. Maybe Tatum's logged more carries as of yet but it seems Norwood is at least better at what he does well.I'm having a harder time coming up with floor players for Stewart and Mendenhall. J Duckett was brought up for Stewart but I think the comparisons between them are brought up mainly because of their size. Stewart runs much, much faster than Duckett so there is an element to Stewart that is vastly different. I just thought of the guy for Stewart. A very poor man's Ronnie Brown. Both are bigger backs with speed that are somewhat well rounded. We already have concerns about Stewart's longevity and Brown has had some injury issues. However, Stewart hasn't proved anything yet on the N?FL level and Brown has. So a poor man's Ronnie Brown it is. Mendenhall? --- I'll come back later.
Appreciate the feedback. I am higher on Jones than most... I see a lot of excellent qualities in him that I value in projecting RBs... Someone else commented on this in another thread, but Jones sets up his blocks very well, ala Marshall, and has good hands, tremendous vision, and cutback ability.A few years back I got hammered on for thinking Onterrio Smith was a NFL calibre RB, and was better than Michael Bennett. Smith (4.9 career YPC, 10.3 career YPR - albeit 2 years) was indeed better than Bennett, and outproduced him the two seasons they were in MIN together. But he was a pothead, and an idiot. I still hear jokes about O.Smith when I talk about RBs.I get the feeling though, that after this draft, if F.Jones doens't pan out, it will be F.Jones I hear about, and not O.SmithEnglishteacher said:
Just on a note though... Duckett was fast when he came out, he ran a 4.45 40 at the combine. That's faster than what Stewart ran.
Fair enough.. but LT was not viewed as on the level of Faulk or ADP when he came out. I fact many of the reasons people are down on Jones are similar to the reasons they were down on LT. Not an inside runner, benefitted from the system, can't break tackles, tries too often to make a home run play.Here's one write up about LT:
LT wasn't even Kiper's top RBanother LT profile
Also, I watched Faulk at San Diego State, I see Jones as a very similar RB in a lot of ways...
From watching Duckett in the NFL now, it's easy to say that. But from a college comparison, they are equals. In fact to many Duckett was th #1 back in the draft that year. People seem to ignore how well players match up from their draft period, and use NFL results as a barometer. But comparing how they fared in college (apples to apples) seems much more accurate to me.
Hence why I never compared Jones to LT, different build, different type of RB. Much more like Faulk:Faulk: 5'10" 208 Lbs
Really? Bigger backs, thought well of because they have "speed for their size." Neither one is particularly shifty, although profiles of each say they are "for their size." I just don't like big backs I guess.
Yah.Thanks guys for the input and keep it coming. This is my favorite time of the year preparing for my dynasty league rookie draft. Again everyone speaks about ceilings, but offering a non-bust floor offers another perspective and finally there are those who have a better understanding of this rookie crop are discussing the floors of rookies.
Keep in mind Stewart had turf toe at the combine when he posted that time.Appreciate the feedback. I am higher on Jones than most... I see a lot of excellent qualities in him that I value in projecting RBs... Someone else commented on this in another thread, but Jones sets up his blocks very well, ala Marshall, and has good hands, tremendous vision, and cutback ability.A few years back I got hammered on for thinking Onterrio Smith was a NFL calibre RB, and was better than Michael Bennett. Smith (4.9 career YPC, 10.3 career YPR - albeit 2 years) was indeed better than Bennett, and outproduced him the two seasons they were in MIN together. But he was a pothead, and an idiot. I still hear jokes about O.Smith when I talk about RBs.I get the feeling though, that after this draft, if F.Jones doens't pan out, it will be F.Jones I hear about, and not O.SmithEnglishteacher said:
I'll make one more attempt at this before I give up. Not sure if any of the rookie
guys / Draftniks want to hear it, but here goes.First, the comparisons to Emmitt Smith or Tomlinson or other good/great backs are not about their projections or upside for me - and I would hope everyone gets that. No one should be saying that Ray Rice WILL BE the next Emmitt. That's ludicrous. What can be said, though, is that when you watch his style and his collegiate highlights, he reminds me of Emmitt Smith, Frank Gore, MJD - whomever. That's the comparison.
Do you think anyone said Tom Brady's ceiling was 50 TDs in a season?I'll make one more attempt at this before I give up. Not sure if any of the rookieguys / Draftniks want to hear it, but here goes.First, the comparisons to Emmitt Smith or Tomlinson or other good/great backs are not about their projections or upside for me - and I would hope everyone gets that. No one should be saying that Ray Rice WILL BE the next Emmitt. That's ludicrous. What can be said, though, is that when you watch his style and his collegiate highlights, he reminds me of Emmitt Smith, Frank Gore, MJD - whomever. That's the comparison.
Now, as for discussing ceilings and floors. Ceilings are worth discussing but floors are not. Here's why:
Ceilings tells me what a player CANNOT do. If someone tells me that Player X in the best possible system (offensive scheme, great blocking, good coach, 20-25 touches, etc.) will produce like this guy - then that's a good thing to know. If he lands in what I think would be an ideal spot, now I know what his upside is. Now, if I hear that he lacks breakaway speed or good receiving skills or he will struggle to pick up a complicated offense or pass blocks or whatever, then that's worth knowing. In other words, I know what he won't do - get 3,000 all-purpose yards or 30 TDs rushing - but knowing he has the potential to be a Top 5 or Top 10 fantasy RB is worth knowing.
Floors tell me nothing - sorry. Guess what - the floor is zero. Despite all of what you say, I guarantee that one of your expected floors will be too high. I'd hazard to guess that 3 years ago, no one would have put Michael Turner's production for the past 3 years near where it is today. Sure you can say he has a starting job today, but that doesn't help me over the past 3 seasons. Let someone else drive that new car off the lot and have it sit in their driveway for 3 years.
Further, no one would have put Ryan Leaf's floor where it wound up. Nor any other first day draft pick bust. You just don't do that - but it happens.
So that's why ceilings are worth discussing and floors aren't. I already know the worst case scenario (injury / never play), but I don't know everyone's upside. If those two come together next weekend, I want to be ready to draft accordingly.
Disagree, but then you definition of floor is the problem. Look down. Your floor is nice, it was installed by a pro over some sort of subsurface, a foundation or subfloor. You're talking about Ki Jana Carter, the subfloor. We all understand any player can completely bust or be broken, but there is a floor worth discussing above that subfloor. This floor is the bottom of the potential we've seen on the field of play, not the surface the floor was installed on, not the knees shattered in 5 places.
I understand that this is your definition of it, I get that. However, I also think that the floor is better defined by the circumstance / environment and extraneous forces than the player himself.
No. What's your point?Do you think anyone said Tom Brady's ceiling was 50 TDs in a season?I'll make one more attempt at this before I give up. Not sure if any of the rookieguys / Draftniks want to hear it, but here goes.First, the comparisons to Emmitt Smith or Tomlinson or other good/great backs are not about their projections or upside for me - and I would hope everyone gets that. No one should be saying that Ray Rice WILL BE the next Emmitt. That's ludicrous. What can be said, though, is that when you watch his style and his collegiate highlights, he reminds me of Emmitt Smith, Frank Gore, MJD - whomever. That's the comparison.
Now, as for discussing ceilings and floors. Ceilings are worth discussing but floors are not. Here's why:
Ceilings tells me what a player CANNOT do. If someone tells me that Player X in the best possible system (offensive scheme, great blocking, good coach, 20-25 touches, etc.) will produce like this guy - then that's a good thing to know. If he lands in what I think would be an ideal spot, now I know what his upside is. Now, if I hear that he lacks breakaway speed or good receiving skills or he will struggle to pick up a complicated offense or pass blocks or whatever, then that's worth knowing. In other words, I know what he won't do - get 3,000 all-purpose yards or 30 TDs rushing - but knowing he has the potential to be a Top 5 or Top 10 fantasy RB is worth knowing.
Floors tell me nothing - sorry. Guess what - the floor is zero. Despite all of what you say, I guarantee that one of your expected floors will be too high. I'd hazard to guess that 3 years ago, no one would have put Michael Turner's production for the past 3 years near where it is today. Sure you can say he has a starting job today, but that doesn't help me over the past 3 seasons. Let someone else drive that new car off the lot and have it sit in their driveway for 3 years.
Further, no one would have put Ryan Leaf's floor where it wound up. Nor any other first day draft pick bust. You just don't do that - but it happens.
So that's why ceilings are worth discussing and floors aren't. I already know the worst case scenario (injury / never play), but I don't know everyone's upside. If those two come together next weekend, I want to be ready to draft accordingly.
And I would agree that that is hardly worth discussing, but I am surprised you're not bright enough to see the floor we are interested in discussing.
I guess that Jeff uses floor differently than I do, and maybe I'm alone in this, but I use it as a risk adjuster. Someone with a high floor is safe. It means that all things being equal, you will likely get what you see. There is less chance that the player will bust, excepting injuries.
I see the floor you are trying to discuss, I just feel that the flooring isn't very level nor worth discussion.I understand the goal - mitigate your rookie draft pick risk - but I think most of that will be determined by who drafts them, unless there are character or off the field issues (like those with Run DMC).And I would agree that that is hardly worth discussing, but I am surprised you're not bright enough to see the floor we are interested in discussing.
Then why did you come in the thread in the first place trying to hijack it with a smart alleck response?I see the floor you are trying to discuss, I just feel that the flooring isn't very level nor worth discussion.I understand the goal - mitigate your rookie draft pick risk - but I think most of that will be determined by who drafts them, unless there are character or off the field issues (like those with Run DMC).And I would agree that that is hardly worth discussing, but I am surprised you're not bright enough to see the floor we are interested in discussing.
I know you see it. You seemed a little curt with the flooring crew, so I wanted to give back a little. Fwiw, I'm a ceiling guy when it comes to projections. I probably read too much positive attitude junk in the 80s and it stuck. I can see how a negative nancy might prefer Mendenhall's sound flooring to McFadden's outer space ceiling, but that's boring to me.I see the floor you are trying to discuss, I just feel that the flooring isn't very level nor worth discussion.I understand the goal - mitigate your rookie draft pick risk - but I think most of that will be determined by who drafts them, unless there are character or off the field issues (like those with Run DMC).And I would agree that that is hardly worth discussing, but I am surprised you're not bright enough to see the floor we are interested in discussing.
So now I'm a negative nancy?I know you see it. You seemed a little curt with the flooring crew, so I wanted to give back a little. Fwiw, I'm a ceiling guy when it comes to projections. I probably read too much positive attitude junk in the 80s and it stuck. I can see how a negative nancy might prefer Mendenhall's sound flooring to McFadden's outer space ceiling, but that's boring to me.I see the floor you are trying to discuss, I just feel that the flooring isn't very level nor worth discussion.I understand the goal - mitigate your rookie draft pick risk - but I think most of that will be determined by who drafts them, unless there are character or off the field issues (like those with Run DMC).And I would agree that that is hardly worth discussing, but I am surprised you're not bright enough to see the floor we are interested in discussing.
How can Brady then do something that he cannot do? I.e., surpass his ceiling.No. What's your point?Do you think anyone said Tom Brady's ceiling was 50 TDs in a season?I'll make one more attempt at this before I give up. Not sure if any of the rookie
Now, as for discussing ceilings and floors. Ceilings are worth discussing but floors are not. Here's why:
Ceilings tells me what a player CANNOT do. If someone tells me that Player X in the best possible system (offensive scheme, great blocking, good coach, 20-25 touches, etc.) will produce like this guy - then that's a good thing to know. If he lands in what I think would be an ideal spot, now I know what his upside is. Now, if I hear that he lacks breakaway speed or good receiving skills or he will struggle to pick up a complicated offense or pass blocks or whatever, then that's worth knowing. In other words, I know what he won't do - get 3,000 all-purpose yards or 30 TDs rushing - but knowing he has the potential to be a Top 5 or Top 10 fantasy RB is worth knowing.
Floors tell me nothing - sorry. Guess what - the floor is zero. Despite all of what you say, I guarantee that one of your expected floors will be too high. I'd hazard to guess that 3 years ago, no one would have put Michael Turner's production for the past 3 years near where it is today. Sure you can say he has a starting job today, but that doesn't help me over the past 3 seasons. Let someone else drive that new car off the lot and have it sit in their driveway for 3 years.
Further, no one would have put Ryan Leaf's floor where it wound up. Nor any other first day draft pick bust. You just don't do that - but it happens.
So that's why ceilings are worth discussing and floors aren't. I already know the worst case scenario (injury / never play), but I don't know everyone's upside. If those two come together next weekend, I want to be ready to draft accordingly.
TJ Duckett - 4.45 second 40. J. Stewart - 4.48 second 40.I'm having a harder time coming up with floor players for Stewart and Mendenhall. J Duckett was brought up for Stewart but I think the comparisons between them are brought up mainly because of their size. Stewart runs much, much faster than Duckett so there is an element to Stewart that is vastly different. I just thought of the guy for Stewart. A very poor man's Ronnie Brown. Both are bigger backs with speed that are somewhat well rounded. We already have concerns about Stewart's longevity and Brown has had some injury issues. However, Stewart hasn't proved anything yet on the N?FL level and Brown has. So a poor man's Ronnie Brown it is.
Mendenhall? --- I'll come back later.
I really hope you're not Stewart's publicist or agent.
I think English's statement would be correct had he said Stewart plays much, much faster than Duckett. 40 times in shorts are meaningless. What is their 40 times in pads? Furthermore, what is their 40 time in pads two hours into a game when they are tired?TJ Duckett - 4.45 second 40. J. Stewart - 4.48 second 40.
Mendenhall? --- I'll come back later.
Both big backs and both considered one of the top picks in their rb class.
