Thursday Games Projections Question for Dodds/Staff/Anyone Else (1 Viewer)

[strong]

I've read a few threads/articles (too lazy to look them up at the moment) that suggest Thursday night games have lower offensive outputs than Sunday or Monday games. But I don't recall any staff members or Dodds chiming in on the threads. I tend to give a little credence to their rankings when adjusting my lineups since on the whole, they're very good.

Do FBG staff incorporate these lower offensive outputs into their weekly projections?

Mostly curious to hear if FBG staff buys into/has researched the likelihood that offenses tend to perform worse on shorter preparation time than normal and applies it to their rankings at all. It would be nice to know if I should apply my own personal downgrades if I buy into the Thursday night offensive clunker theory or if FBG staff members have already considered it...

Thanks!

 

[David Yudkin]

I have nothing to do with the weekly projections, and the following has nothing directly to do with fantasy, but . . .

I went back the last 5 seasons to look at team scoring in Thursday games compared to their regular season scoring averages. This involved looking only at home many points a team scored compared to their average points socred on the season (ie, I did not take out the points scored in that game and then recalulate the average of their other 15 games).

There is no filtering for strength of schedule, injuries, how the points were scored (includes defense and special teams points), etc. I looked ONLY at the total points scored and did not exclude or explain anything.

Based on that, over the past 5 seasons, here were the average scoring differential compared to each team's season scoring average:

2011 -4.6 points

2010 +0.3 points

2009 -1.3 points

2008 +4.8 points

2007 +3.5 points

I'm not sure that there is any real trend that shows that Thursday games reduce overall scoring.

 

[strong]

I have nothing to do with the weekly projections, and the following has nothing directly to do with fantasy, but . . .I went back the last 5 seasons to look at team scoring in Thursday games compared to their regular season scoring averages. This involved looking only at home many points a team scored compared to their average points socred on the season (ie, I did not take out the points scored in that game and then recalulate the average of their other 15 games).There is no filtering for strength of schedule, injuries, how the points were scored (includes defense and special teams points), etc. I looked ONLY at the total points scored and did not exclude or explain anything.Based on that, over the past 5 seasons, here were the average scoring differential compared to each team's season scoring average:2011 -4.6 points2010 +0.3 points2009 -1.3 points2008 +4.8 points2007 +3.5 pointsI'm not sure that there is any real trend that shows that Thursday games reduce overall scoring.

Interesting. That's certainly different from the data I saw. I'll try to find it, but I thought I saw something suggesting a pretty strong decline in production... It could have just been based on the 2011 season, which appears to have been a down year for Thursday offenses.

 

[Grace Under Pressure]

Good thread. Any data out there to share on the subject would be appreciated. It seems like the 2012 Thursday games have all been duds from a fantasy perspective. Maybe it's just the teams they've had on the schedule so far.

As an example, I'm concerned for all Tampa players in Minnesota this week. D Martin and V Jackson are starters in most leagues according to CBS, anyone thinking of benching these guys for reasonable alternatives?

 

[Ace zero1]

Im benching martin for rashad jennings

 

[GregR]

I did this post that looked at it from the standpoint of what happened with scoring, yardage, sacks, etc, on Thursdays versus Sundays versus MNF.

Was a quick look though, there's a lot of other ways to examine it. I'm concerned the weather issue may cloud things (pun intended) since Thursday games were only held late season in past years, so it's maybe a tricky topic to do really well, and probably would take a bit more time and thought. I don't know of anyone who has taken a really rigorous look at it, no.

 

[Sweet Love]

Good thread. Any data out there to share on the subject would be appreciated. It seems like the 2012 Thursday games have all been duds from a fantasy perspective. Maybe it's just the teams they've had on the schedule so far.As an example, I'm concerned for all Tampa players in Minnesota this week. D Martin and V Jackson are starters in most leagues according to CBS, anyone thinking of benching these guys for reasonable alternatives?

This could be the case, but looking at 2012 exclusively, is just waaay too small of a sample to size to determine a trend, specifically when considering the same two teams are not playing every Thursday. We also grade players on overall performance and not just points scored, so you would literally need to assess all RBs, WRs, TEs and QBs and consider their fantasy scoring. For example, you could have a 25-20 game where there were no 100 yard rushers/receivers and a 17-14 game where there were three. Maybe the best way to look at this without actually looking up individual player stats would be to determine total yards and not scoreboard points, and gauge it from there.

 

[Pigskin Fanatic]

If there is a trend I would have to guess it is a result of teams playing Sunday and then turning around in a short week into a Thursday game and as a result producing less offensive stats. The team going on the road for the said Thursday game is probably hit harder than the home team. Add to that a team going East Coast to West Coast for a night name is probably the worst if such an analysis was done. Vegas definitely takes this latter point into account more so than the short week, so just the fact that it's a short week may not show a clear trend.

 

[need2know]

sure didn't hurt the giants going on the road to car...course they are not your average team

 

[solorca]

I only speak from my personal perspective, but if I have the option to bench someone on a Thursday game, I'll do so. I own Harvin and will obviously not bench him tomorrow, but if I had anyone else, they'd be riding the pine.

The only thing I feel good about starting on Thursday nights are team defenses.

 

[solorca]

sure didn't hurt the giants going on the road to car...course they are not your average team

Even with that game, the big name fantasy guys didn't have huge games. Nicks and Bradshaw were out, Eli only went for 288/1, and Cruz only had 6/42. The players that produced big (Brown and Barden) were two guys who were relatively fresh because of limited use on the season.

 

[Faust]

NFL Thursdays tough on players, especially on road

 

[strong]

NFL Thursdays tough on players, especially on road

Interesting feedback, everybody. It looks like most data indicating a down-tick in offensive performance on Thursday night are only related to a few 2011 games and this season. And I think there may be something to the theory that road teams are even more prone to struggle.

But it'd be nice to hear from a staffer one way or the other!

 

[Addai's Adidas]

This weeks game has defensive struggle written all over it. 14-10, SF.

 

[David Yudkin]

But it'd be nice to hear from a staffer one way or the other!

I already posted. Was there something more specific you were wanting to know?

 

[strong]

But it'd be nice to hear from a staffer one way or the other!

I already posted. Was there something more specific you were wanting to know?

Sorry. Thanks for responding earlier and now. I should have been more specific in my last post. I am particularly interested to know if any staffers incorporate Thursday night theories, such as reduced offensive output, into their weekly rankings/projections. I appreciated your feedback, but you said that while you didn't think there was much to the theory you didn't have anything to do with weekly projections and so I was hoping to hear from a Weekly-Projections staffer. But again thanks for the stats you posted and taking the time!Edit: Grammar

 

[Time Kibitzer]

sure didn't hurt the giants going on the road to car...course they are not your average team

Of the 12 teams that have played in a Thursday nighter so far, the Giants offense is the only offense to score more than 2 TD's in the game. They're definitely the outlier at this point.

 

[MIMN]

sure didn't hurt the giants going on the road to car...course they are not your average team

Of the 12 teams that have played in a Thursday nighter so far, the Giants offense is the only offense to score more than 2 TD's in the game. They're definitely the outlier at this point.

As long as the Vikes kick 8 or 9 field goals in a winning effort I am good.Personally, I think Simpson gets a TD tonight. Not enough to pick up and play but stll...

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

It makes sense that less time to recover and practice would lead to less production. It's hard to argue with this years output. I don't know where I stand yet though.

 

[Bri]

It makes sense that less time to recover and practice would lead to less production. It's hard to argue with this years output. I don't know where I stand yet though.

But there's also how some teams seem to sit a player Sunday to play them Thursday and the followup game that there's a long break leading up to.What "gets me" is the new NFL/NFLPA contract and it's limit on practices and contact in those practices. It feels like not much for the whole season, never mind for one week period. It makes me wonder if we're discussing if three walk throughs are better than five walkthroughs

 

[Mr. Soup Nazi]

Im benching martin for rashad jennings

oof

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Im benching martin for rashad jennings

oof

You can't blame the guy. The matchup looked bad, he hasn't done much, Jennings will get all the carries and catches for Jax, they're playing GB with a weaker run D. All signs pointed to benching Martin.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Im benching martin for rashad jennings

oof

It probably mad sense at the time. I took a shot @ Jennings and got sniped in the WW priority. I drafted RJ and think he'll do well.But, yeah, today is not a good day for anyone who benched Martin due to the combo of "tough matchup" and TNF production for road teams.

 

[kegger]

It makes sense that less time to recover and practice would lead to less production. It's hard to argue with this years output. I don't know where I stand yet though.

But another aspect no one seems to be focusing on is the Defense plays in those same games.It certainly could be said that defense needs just as much if not more rest depending on howor what kind of game they previously played, that it could benefit opposing offensive players.Also less time for the team to scheme and prepare for the next offense they are facing Thursday.So there are theories you could use to try an suggest one side or the other could benefit from it.