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Tight Ends for those who treat them like QBs and wait and then wait some more. (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Most of my leagues are TE mandatory which means there are a couple that might exceed 1,000 yds but most of them have a decent or strong week and then roll back to below avg the next and over the course of the season i prefer to combo a couple of them and play match ups, also like to work the waiver wire on my TE2 spot in season hoping to get lucky.

Kelce might show some signs of slowing down this year but he still is likely to receive 135-150 targets on a team that lost it's top WR. It's possible he has a career year as well.
Andrews is now the no 2 overall TE in most preseason articles. Pitts has QB issues, Kittle is going to be blocking a lot and frustrating owners while the young Trey Lance learns the ropes. Waller will be competing for targets in a way he's never had to up to this point.

And yet if you wait on TE you can see that half the league practically has a TE with some upside that you are not likely to have if you wait. But in order to get one of those names I mentioned and especially in leagues that increase the TE with 1.5-2PPR, those guys are gone inside of 4 rounds, both Kelce and Andrews are gone by the Mid 2nd in every DD Simulator I run on the app. But I don't want to feel like I must grab a TE up there when I can take a top flight RB or WR building a monster core. You can add Dalton Schultz to the short list of TEs that could be gone early and you have 6 now that will be sprinkled on to other rosters.

Hock. Goedert, Ertz, Kmet and Dawson Knox all seem to go within a round or two of each other for those who wait.
TJ Hockenson I like but injuries keep me guessing, Ertz and Kmet seem like easy choices. Ertz could be Top 5 early in the season as a possible No 2 in the passing game. I like Dawson Knox more than most and because of the offense he will see easy TDs even if he is not an elite TE, he's open all the time in this offense.

Gerald Everett is a guy that will go almost undrafted but he finds himself at the mercy now of Justin Herbert. Cook was ancient last year, Everett will have the speed and moves after the catch to get up the seam and I think he will far outperform his draft spot. I have one more late TE you should keep a note on.

Hayden Hurst is now in Cincinnati and will likely do some similar things that Uzomah did last year, he parted ways for the NY Jets and many feel Hurst can fill that spot nicely for the Bengals, he has a couple elite at WR that will leave him lined up VS a Linebacker most of the time. Joe Burrow likes his Tight End as a security valve.

What is your plan right now? Do you think it's a good idea to try and get 1 solid option before everyone starts taking their 2nd Tight End? I think you could wait a long long time and still be OK.
 
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Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
One thing I notice in the ranking by FBG is they don't seem to like Everett much at all in Los Angeles this year. I can't think of many better teams for him to land on.
Signed a 2yr/$12M deal, not complete chump change, just 28 yrs old.

Hurst is a former 1st round pick 2018, only signed a 1 yr/$3.5M deal, half the investment the Chargers made into Everett.
 

MTskibum

Footballguy
Austin hooper.

Last few years the Titans have used two different te's, one for early downs and one for late downs. This year Austin hooper has both roles.

His competition for targets are a 30 year old coming off an ACL tear and a group of young guys that don't look all that good.

He could lead the team in receiving this year and is free at the end of fantasy drafts.
 

Mongidig

Footballguy
If you wait on TE is it reasonable to grab 3 late rounders in the hopes of hitting on one? This would be in a 20 round draft ten bench spots. I figure late round picks at other positions rarely pan put anyway.
 

Mongidig

Footballguy
I never go early TE but this year it makes sense. Kelce is going around pick 17. Why not take him there and then not worry about it the rest of the draft. If he busts it’s not gonna kill you like it would in previous years where you had to take him in the first. There are no late round TE’s who have the ability to put up monster games like Kelce can. It always seems like we can piece together a decent TE group late but the reality is it’s probably gonna be an inconsistent ride with not a ton of upside. I feel like I can still put together a strong core while having a huge advantage at TE. Andrews and Pitts also can put up monster numbers and be had sometimes in the third. I’m out on Killer and Waller unless they fall to the 6th.
 

foxco

Footballguy
I waited too long last year and got stuck with guys like Jonnu Smith which turned out just swell. This year I have to either get one much earlier or pick better late.
Seem to be looking at Mo Allie-Cox late as a potential sleeper.
 

Phantom Knight

Footballguy
For the first time ever, I went early (reached) for tight end. I have always waited until the later rounds. This year I took Pitts (I had him ranked #2 behind Kelce who went at the 1.09) at the 3.02 (10-team league).
It will probably only last a week, but for a week at least it sure will feel nice not having to worry about which TE I will play this week. And during the draft, although I lost a good player I could have had in the 3rd, it was nice later in the draft to not have to have my eye on TE's.... should I take one now? Or now? Oh no! The last 3 that I had in that tier just went. Perhaps I should just wait until the end and flip a coin for the left overs?
 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
This thread is inherently what the problem is with waiting on TE is. Which I did, and often do.

We all have very different picks of who’s going to produce and for different reasons.

Some of them will, but when you wait this long I think it’s consistency you are looking for. So I like to take two guys. One who will consistently get 4-5 targets a game. And one who has top 5 upside.

It’s sort of like the RB lotto ticket.
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
I've been meaning to start a thread on this topic, which I may still do as a broader "What is your onesie draft strategy?" but for now I'll share my thoughts on TE.

First of all, last year I discovered Andrew Cooper, who is very self-consciously trying to do with TE draft strategy what JJ Zachariason did with the late-round QB. I encourage you to read his entire four-part series, starting with this one, but here are his principles in a nutshell:
  • It's not really worth it to have a low-end TE1. Your goal should always be to get Top 5 upside
  • The key stats to look at for breakout TEs are a) whether they are one of the top two in target share for their team, and b) how frequently they run routes as opposed to being kept in to block
  • One way to get Top 5 production is by drafting a stud TE, provided you don't overpay
  • Another way is by employing what he calls the Yin-Yang strategy. The Yin TEs are guys with decent floors who can hold down the fort until you figure out who the breakout TEs are. The Yangs are the breakout guys. The goal is to spend late-round picks on one of each, with the goal of getting it down to one within a few weeks
  • He even includes a handy chart breaking down which TEs fit in which category
Honestly, I'm not sure how good he is at identifying breakouts, but I do like the overall approach, and also that he identifies some highly touted guys who are likely to bust (Goedert, Irv, Albert O)

Based on this, I'm definitely targeting Kmet. He’s talented, has massive positive TD regression coming his way, and I have a hard time seeing how he's not Fields' No. 2 target. Maybe pair him with Ertz or Hock (if he slips). If I miss out on Kmet, I'll probably go Engram or Jordan
 
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greenmountaingoat

Footballguy
I’m drafting at 8. I mocked last week and saw espn had Kelce in the queue at like 2.10. I have him ranked at the 1/2 turn so if he’s there at 2.05, can’t pass him up. Andrews is even money at 2.05 but the RBs that are plus value to equivalent adp options for the rest of the draft are not plentiful imo. There’s a few guys that I like at adp but I don’t like relying on those to fall into my lap.

Pitts value should be early third but I don’t have a great deal of confidence. I’ve heard on a pod that they’re actually trying to get him lined up against linebackers and safeties. Again though, even if he improves in a vacuum, the environment is neutral at best. I pulled the trigger in the mock at 3.08, checked my numbers and liked the numbers better than the feeling. We’ll see.

Waller and Kittle I think are fine mid 4th and become plus value anywhere beyond there. I have Schulz in this tier and think if you can get him in the 5th or 6th round, you’re getting about a point or so boost for your weekly lineup.

Godert and Hock are fine in the 6th, plus value in the 7th imo.

I don’t like the Ertz value point until the 8th.

Late round guys later
 

Mongidig

Footballguy
Yeah, Kelce's ADP according to Football Guys is 13 for PPR leagues. That's right at the turn there.
In the NFFC online championship drafts I do he is going pretty consistently at 16 and sometimes as late as 20. It's a 3 WR league so WR's go early. He went in the middle of the first last year. He seems to be getting the Derick Henry treatment. Maybe people fear his age. Maybe people fear him getting double teamed more without Tyreek. It seems like a no brainer pick to me if he falls to me in the second.
 

Mongidig

Footballguy
For the first time ever, I went early (reached) for tight end. I have always waited until the later rounds. This year I took Pitts (I had him ranked #2 behind Kelce who went at the 1.09) at the 3.02 (10-team league).
It will probably only last a week, but for a week at least it sure will feel nice not having to worry about which TE I will play this week. And during the draft, although I lost a good player I could have had in the 3rd, it was nice later in the draft to not have to have my eye on TE's.... should I take one now? Or now? Oh no! The last 3 that I had in that tier just went. Perhaps I should just wait until the end and flip a coin for the left overs?
The beauty of going TE early is that it takes out the weakly decision making. Winning at fantasy is all about making less mistakes than your opponents. The more decisions you have the more possibility for mistakes to be made. Also, the ability to have a stud TE win a week for you is basically non existent in later rounds.

I never go TE early but I have been consistently doing so in my mocks. I still find myself thinking I have to get a TE starting in the 5th but then realize I already have one and it makes me feel warm and fuzzy inside.
 

TheWinz

Footballguy
I have the 12th pick in a 12-teamer
12/13 - Kelce is the only one I would consider
36/37 - Kelce/Andrews are always gone, would take Pitts if he makes it
60/61 - Waller/Kittle are the only 2 I would consider, but likely gone
84/85 - Schultz is gone by then, but Goedert/Hockenson may be here
108/109 - Ertz likely gone, so it's Knox/Friermuth/Kmet territory now
 

DA RAIDERS

willy t flyers
For the first time ever, I went early (reached) for tight end. I have always waited until the later rounds. This year I took Pitts (I had him ranked #2 behind Kelce who went at the 1.09) at the 3.02 (10-team league).
It will probably only last a week, but for a week at least it sure will feel nice not having to worry about which TE I will play this week. And during the draft, although I lost a good player I could have had in the 3rd, it was nice later in the draft to not have to have my eye on TE's.... should I take one now? Or now? Oh no! The last 3 that I had in that tier just went. Perhaps I should just wait until the end and flip a coin for the left overs?
just did my home draft. i normally wait like you. took pitts at 3.10. 12 teamer. :shrug:
 

Mongidig

Footballguy
For the first time ever, I went early (reached) for tight end. I have always waited until the later rounds. This year I took Pitts (I had him ranked #2 behind Kelce who went at the 1.09) at the 3.02 (10-team league).
It will probably only last a week, but for a week at least it sure will feel nice not having to worry about which TE I will play this week. And during the draft, although I lost a good player I could have had in the 3rd, it was nice later in the draft to not have to have my eye on TE's.... should I take one now? Or now? Oh no! The last 3 that I had in that tier just went. Perhaps I should just wait until the end and flip a coin for the left overs?
just did my home draft. i normally wait like you. took pitts at 3.10. 12 teamer. :shrug:
If I knew Andrews or Pitts would be there for my third round pick I'd wait for them. They seem to be going just before my pick usually. I love starting WR/RB/TE this year.
 

Phantom Knight

Footballguy
For the first time ever, I went early (reached) for tight end. I have always waited until the later rounds. This year I took Pitts (I had him ranked #2 behind Kelce who went at the 1.09) at the 3.02 (10-team league).
It will probably only last a week, but for a week at least it sure will feel nice not having to worry about which TE I will play this week. And during the draft, although I lost a good player I could have had in the 3rd, it was nice later in the draft to not have to have my eye on TE's.... should I take one now? Or now? Oh no! The last 3 that I had in that tier just went. Perhaps I should just wait until the end and flip a coin for the left overs?
just did my home draft. i normally wait like you. took pitts at 3.10. 12 teamer. :shrug:
It's new territory for me for sure but I enjoyed not having the TE sweat afterwards!

An aside... The guy who picked right after me won the league last year and picked right before me/after me last year. He sniped me so often I was getting truly frustrated. This year I commented on that I said I hoped I'd pay him back this year... My first two picks probably left him gloating. He took CMac at 1.03 (I was burned by CMac two years ago, and last year did nothing to make me feel better about him). Then he took Mark Andrews at the 3.03 right after me picking Pitts. One of the two of us is likely to be really ruing those two picks at some point this year. So picking after me, he got the "consensus better player" both times.
 

greenmountaingoat

Footballguy
I’m drafting at 8. I mocked last week and saw espn had Kelce in the queue at like 2.10. I have him ranked at the 1/2 turn so if he’s there at 2.05, can’t pass him up. Andrews is even money at 2.05 but the RBs that are plus value to equivalent adp options for the rest of the draft are not plentiful imo. There’s a few guys that I like at adp but I don’t like relying on those to fall into my lap.

Pitts value should be early third but I don’t have a great deal of confidence. I’ve heard on a pod that they’re actually trying to get him lined up against linebackers and safeties. Again though, even if he improves in a vacuum, the environment is neutral at best. I pulled the trigger in the mock at 3.08, checked my numbers and liked the numbers better than the feeling. We’ll see.

Waller and Kittle I think are fine mid 4th and become plus value anywhere beyond there. I have Schulz in this tier and think if you can get him in the 5th or 6th round, you’re getting about up to a point per week advantage.

Godert and Hock I have as slightly behind value in the 6th, above value in the 7th.

Ertz is the last guy that I think has projection above the 8.8 point per week baseline.

Knox is the best bet after that for me. Everyone always advises ‘punt the position’ if you don’t get one of the good ones but the offense is one of the best.

Next for me are Kmet and Njoku for reasons already stated here.

Hunter Henry I think loses a little bit of the NE TD upside and, as a fan, this offense could absolutely stink this year. Matty P, barf.

I’m not out on Irv completely but he’s not healthy yet. The dirt I was throwing on Gisecki’s grave was a year early. We’re all dumping on Diontae but Pickens and Friermuth are going to be fine?

I like Hooper and Everett as super late round picks. Tonyan too but again, he’s not healthy.

I’m way out on higbee, Fant and lukewarm on Albert O.
 

skillz

Footballguy
I waited on TE after the top 7 clump was picked much sooner than my liking. I viewed the others being picked as too similar so I loaded up on WR and RB. Ended up taking Everett with my final pick in 18th round.

Logan Thomas, Higbee, Hooper and Hurst are all on the wire. I will monitor them while seeing what Everett does. Last year I was able to snag Schultz off waivers so maybe I get lucky with another pickup like that again.
 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
I waited on TE after the top 7 clump was picked much sooner than my liking. I viewed the others being picked as too similar so I loaded up on WR and RB. Ended up taking Everett with my final pick in 18th round.

Logan Thomas, Higbee, Hooper and Hurst are all on the wire. I will monitor them while seeing what Everett does. Last year I was able to snag Schultz off waivers so maybe I get lucky with another pickup like that again.
Logan Thomas is a guy I like late, that is basically free. A recent tweet stated he’d be back week 2 at the latest. And a few years ago he was a top 3 TE.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I am team Cole Kmet. Maybe he's not going as late as some of the others mentioned here but I like his chances to perform somewhere around TE5-8 this year. Third year, pretty athletic, took the first steps towards production last season, very little target competition and the offense is likely to be slightly better this season.

Last year he was 8th in TE targets, 12th in TE yards, 9th in TE air yards, 7th in unrealized air yards, 6th in TE deep targets, 5th in TE slot snaps and 6th in snap share. And of course zero TDs.

So he is a TE that is going to see a lot of snaps, get a lot of targets and be targeted down field. I don't think he has a massive ceiling but I think he's a relatively safe bet to hold serve at the position for those wait.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Logan Thomas is a guy I like late, that is basically free. A recent tweet stated he’d be back week 2 at the latest. And a few years ago he was a top 3 TE.
Thomas and Tonyan are 2 guys I am very interested in. Just have to wait to see if they are good to go week 1.
 

bostonfred

Footballguy
I like to take two guys. One who will consistently get 4-5 targets a game. And one who has top 5 upside.
I think you're better off just taking the guys with the highest upside. You can use waivers to piece together something close if your guys don't hit. If you want to spare yourself the roster spot and the waiver picks, then a guy like Hayden Hurst is a decent punt. He's never going to get you te1 production but if you acknowledge you aren't getting it without trading for kelce then you can save your roster spots and waiver priority for rb and wr, or taking defenses with great matchups.

If you're going to dedicate two draft picks and roster spots to tight end then maximize your chances with the second lottery ticket. %
 

finfansteve

Footballguy
For the first time ever, I went early (reached) for tight end. I have always waited until the later rounds. This year I took Pitts (I had him ranked #2 behind Kelce who went at the 1.09) at the 3.02 (10-team league).
It will probably only last a week, but for a week at least it sure will feel nice not having to worry about which TE I will play this week. And during the draft, although I lost a good player I could have had in the 3rd, it was nice later in the draft to not have to have my eye on TE's.... should I take one now? Or now? Oh no! The last 3 that I had in that tier just went. Perhaps I should just wait until the end and flip a coin for the left overs?
just did my home draft. i normally wait like you. took pitts at 3.10. 12 teamer. :shrug:
If I knew Andrews or Pitts would be there for my third round pick I'd wait for them. They seem to be going just before my pick usually. I love starting WR/RB/TE this year.
I just left a draft where I did just that. JJ in the first, Javonte in the second and Pitts in the third.

.5 PPR league.

all three were my targets in their drafted rounds. Let’s see how it goes
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I like to take two guys. One who will consistently get 4-5 targets a game. And one who has top 5 upside.
I think you're better off just taking the guys with the highest upside. You can use waivers to piece together something close if your guys don't hit. If you want to spare yourself the roster spot and the waiver picks, then a guy like Hayden Hurst is a decent punt. He's never going to get you te1 production but if you acknowledge you aren't getting it without trading for kelce then you can save your roster spots and waiver priority for rb and wr, or taking defenses with great matchups.

If you're going to dedicate two draft picks and roster spots to tight end then maximize your chances with the second lottery ticket. %
TE mandatory, 19 spots and you must draft 2 TEs, it's in the constitution we publish
 

VikingFrog

Footballguy
I think you're better off just taking the guys with the highest upside. You can use waivers to piece together something close if your guys don't hit.
But, if I believe Logan Thomas or Likely has the most upside to be a top 5 tight end… I may not have a starter week 1. So, I can’t just take the guy with the most upside.

There’s a guy that writes a TE article called Yin and Yang TE’s.

Not sure it’s appropriate to link it here, but it’s a solid read.
 

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
I think you're better off just taking the guys with the highest upside. You can use waivers to piece together something close if your guys don't hit.
But, if I believe Logan Thomas or Likely has the most upside to be a top 5 tight end… I may not have a starter week 1. So, I can’t just take the guy with the most upside.

There’s a guy that writes a TE article called Yin and Yang TE’s.

Not sure it’s appropriate to link it here, but it’s a solid read.
Ertz the 1st in Green on the Yin side and Everett more towards the bottom but still in yellow :thumbup:
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy
I think you're better off just taking the guys with the highest upside. You can use waivers to piece together something close if your guys don't hit.
But, if I believe Logan Thomas or Likely has the most upside to be a top 5 tight end… I may not have a starter week 1. So, I can’t just take the guy with the most upside.

There’s a guy that writes a TE article called Yin and Yang TE’s.

Not sure it’s appropriate to link it here, but it’s a solid read.
LOL I already linked it earlier in the thread. Don't tell the moderators! 🤫

Anyway, Cooper actually addresses the "Why not Double Yang?" question:

Why Not Just Draft The Risky Guy? Or Two Risky Guys?

You don’t just draft the one risky guy because you can’t afford to bleed losses while you scramble on the waiver wire looking for a tight end. Sometimes these high-risk, high-reward guys are Darren Waller and sometimes they are Juwan Johnson. So you want to have at least someone you can trust while we wait and see if our lotto ticket hits.

In terms of the second question, about taking two risky guys? Well, that’s actually a good question and I’m not necessarily opposed to that - if you’ve got the stones to join the #YangYangGang. Just know that you could not only be bleeding losses early but you might also be using two roster spots on bad tight ends - if we knew they were going to be good, they would be in the Elite article. There is a reason a lot of these guys are going late.
 

bostonfred

Footballguy
Tight ends have to get a lot of targets to be studs. That requires talent, sure, but also it's almost impossible to have two highly targeted wide receivers ahead of you in the depth chart and still get 100 plus targets. Hayden Hurst is talented but he's not going to get te1 targets with Chase and Higgins ahead of him, let alone boyd, mixon, etc.

To get elite target volume you need a strong wr1/weak wr2 or a total **** show at wr.

By division that's
Kc - total **** show after kelce. Let's not even.
Raiders - adams and renfrow make it hard for waller to get the volume he needs but he should get good per target numbers
Chargers - two good wrs.
Broncos - ostensibly, two good wrs but kind of a **** show. Possible for albert o to overtake an underwhelming jeudy or Sutton i guess

Cleveland cooper and then... dpj? Bump njoku, who has also suffered in the past from a deeper te room.
Cincinnati - arguably the best 1-2 punch at wr in the NFL
Baltimore - not many people even think Bateman will outscore Andrews let alone the third dude
Pittsburgh- i won't argue with anyone who says their top 3 receivers are all good but it's kind of a **** show. Marginal potential i guess

Patriots - the definition of a **** show at wide receiver
Jets - I'm high on Elijah Moore but we have no idea what Wilson will be... some potential for Conklin to emerge and reports have been good
Miami - tua's third target is complaining about being asked to block more. Pass
Buffalo - sorry gabe davis fans but this is kind of a **** show after Diggs. Still, probably not

Indy - Pittman and... pierce? There's some potential here. Would feel better about jelani than retread coc but maybe.
Jaguars - Christian Kirk leads a **** show for an elite qb prospect headed into his second year. Evan engram has the potential to emerge
Titans - kind of a **** show.
Texans - nico fans cover your ears. It's possible.

49ers - I'm worried about the passing volume and deebo/aiyuk but kittle is arguably the most talented of the 3. Weird situation where a lot comes down to who lance can get the ball to
Arizona - for the first 6 games ertz could establish himself as a te1. When Hopkins comes back he could get more targets than Hollywood. Aj green and Rondale don't scare me.
Seattle- geno smith's third best target should be available on waivers. Fant could establish himself as better than lockett i guess. Dynasty potential for fant in 23 and beyond is interesting
Rams - nope

Packers- **** show. Tonyan isn't more talented than many starting nfl players but this team rosters several of them
Bears - Mooney isn't even that good. Kmet isn't anything special but the target potential is there for sure
Vikings - stop trying to make irv happen. It's never going to happen. maybe if Thielen misses time and irv outperforms Osborne and Jefferson and Dalvin don't get all the touches then.... no. Maybe 2023 is the year..
Lions- kind of a **** show in the sense that there isn't an established pecking order. Hock could blow up. It just feels like too many guys with 100 target potential

Philly- goedert probably the third target for a bad passing quarterback. He's talented but probably needs an injury to aj brown (not unrealistic) or devonta (who can hide behind a stop sign). Keep him on speed dial in dfs but don't overpay for him in season long
Giants - **** show. Barkley could lead them in targets.
Dallas - **** show. All the potential.
Washington - I'm a Dotson believer but he's not an insurmountable challenge as a rookie. Some potential

Atlanta - Pitts > London >>> everyone else
Carolina Dj and McCaffrey... some potential here if they had a more talented guy
Tampa- maybe while Godwin is out if he misses time or if gronk came back because he's an actual hall of famer but not a great situation for guys like brate/Rudolph even with Brady's high pass attempts
Saints- Thomas already dinged, landry old, Olave young, callaway cast away... kind of a **** show tbh. Unlikely but possible

Out of all those spots the intriguing ones are Chicago Cleveland Jacksonville Arizona green bay New England and the Jets. I'll take fliers on a many of ertz kmet tonyan njoku Conklin Henry or engram as i can.

There's some other opportunities like Tennessee Houston Carolina and the giants but I'm not really a fan of the talent at qb or te in any of those places.
 

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Not sure it’s appropriate to link it here, but it’s a solid read.
LOL I already linked it earlier in the thread. Don't tell the moderators! 🤫

I posted earlier this summer and it was removed within 5 minutes bc they're direct competitors with FBGs.

:shrug:

Every Top 5 PPR TE in the last 18 years has had either 90+ targets or double digit TDs. And no TE in the league last year had double digit TDs.

Under 90 targets under 10 TDs - 0 Top 5 finishes
Under 90 targets over 10 TDs - 5 Top 5 finishes
Over 90 targets under 10 TDs - 67 Top 5 finishes
Over 90 targets over 10 TDs - 18 Top 5 finishes

Another thing to keep in mind is nearly every Top 5 TE during that time was 1st or 2nd on his team for targets. Don't draft a teams third option.

Alignment is the other major factor in evaluating if a TE has upside potential. Guys who spend a lot of snaps lining up as a WR are far more likely to be a Top 5 candidate than TEs who line up in line. There are exceptions - George Kittle is asked to block often, he's basically the only Tier 1-Tier 2 TE who stays in to block more than 15%, and historically his run blocking has been exceptional (I believe it slipped a bit last year IIRC.) Goedert is another TE who lines up in line because of his excellent blocking, and thus he runs less routes than most TE1s.

Cole Kmet had 93 targets last year and no longer has to compete with A-Rob for target share. Probably the most obvious wait on TE candidate. A less obvious choice might be Evan Engram. He was one of six TEs who spent more time in the slot or on the boundary than he did lined up tight to the LOS (Kelce, Andrews, Pitts, Ertz, and Gesicki were the others.) He had 224 targets in the two (of five) seasons he remained healthy. Logan Thomas is another potential upside play who is basically free.

Routes run are a good indicator as well. You cannot go by snap counts alone; there are no FF points for blocking. Routes lead to targets, targets lead to points.

TD dependent TEs: Freiermuth, Knox, Henry - TDs are variable and the least sticky stat. I'm not super high on any of them. They should resemble a low end TE1, but don't have a high likelihood of being a Top 5 TE unless they have a double digit TD season.
  1. Kelce: Outside/Slot - 59.6% | Routes Run 71% of snaps | % Targeted On Route 21.7% | 8.38 targets per game
  2. Andrews: WR - 63.9% | RR 68% | Targeted 25.6% | 9.06 targets
  3. Pitts: WR 65.1% | RR 67% | Targeted 22.3% | 6.47 targets
  4. Kittle: WR 27.2% | RR 44% | Targeted 26.3% | 6.79 targets
  5. Waller: WR 46.2% | RR 65% | Targeted 24.9% | 8.45 targets
  6. Schultz: WR 37.9% | RR 53% | Targeted 21.1% | 6.12 targets
  7. Goedert: WR 30.6% | RR 45% | Targeted 22.4% | 5.07 targets
  8. Hockenson: WR 45.4% | RR59% | Targeted 22.9% | 6.92 targets
  9. Ertz: WR 56.1% | RR 59% | Targeted 17.0% | 6.59 targets
  10. Kmet: WR 42.6% | RR 52% | Targeted 20.0% | 5.47 targets
  11. Freiermuth: WR 27.0% | RR 53% | Targeted 23.1% | 4.94 targets
  12. Knox: WR 44.0% | RR 56% | Targeted 14.6% | 4.73 targets
  13. Henry: WR 28.6% | RR 52% | Targeted 20.1% | 4.69 targets
  14. Gesicki: WR 78.6% | RR 67% | Targeted 21.5% | 6.53 targets
  15. I. Smith Jr.: missed 2021, data not available for prior years
  16. Albert O: WR 15.8% | RR 43% | Targeted 23.5% | 3.08 targets
  17. Njoku: WR 26.8% | RR 45% | Targeted 18.5% | 3.53 targets
  18. Fant: WR 20.2% | RR 53% | Targeted 20.9% | 5.63 targets
  19. Everett: WR 43.5% | RR 54% | Targeted 18.6% |4.20 targets
  20. Higbee: WR 40.4% | RR 52% | Targeted 18.8% | 5.67 targets
  21. Tonyan: WR 45.0% | RR 57% | Targeted 17.4% | 3.63 targets
  22. Hooper: WR 23.8% | RR 40% | Targeted 22.2% | 4.29 targets
  23. Engram: WR 56.4% | RR 63% | Targeted 16.9% | 4.86 targets
  24. L. Thomas: WR 42.6% | RR 51% | Targeted 17.7% | 5.00 targets
    ASIDE - WR 69.3% in his breakout 2020, highest amongst TEs
  25. Hurst: WR 39.8% | RR 54% | Targeted 14.6% | 2.58 targets
 

ignatiusjreilly

Footballguy

BobbyLayne

Footballguy
Not sure it’s appropriate to link it here, but it’s a solid read.
LOL I already linked it earlier in the thread. Don't tell the moderators! 🤫

I posted earlier this summer and it was removed within 5 minutes bc they're direct competitors with FBGs.
Oh, I had no idea. I discovered Cooper on Twitter and have only ever read his website for the TE article

Think it's a 3 or 4 part article. Comes out every year.
 

Insein

Footballguy
Went Albert O in the 10th. We'll see how he does but I'm ready to pivot if needed. Plenty of TEs below the big names to stream week to week until I find one.
 

Raging weasel

Footballguy
12 teams .5pr 17 rounds
By the end of round 8 14 TEs were drafted and I got caught in the runs and missed out. One other team hadn't taken 1 yet either and took Cmet 3 picks ahead of me in the 9th. I ended up with Njoku in the 10th as the 17th TE drafted.
 

zamboni

Footballguy
Tight ends have to get a lot of targets to be studs.
That's exactly why I'm eyeing Schultz, Kmet, and Njoku if I can't get one of the big three.

The only way for TEs to get a lot of targets is if they're in a highly proficient offense or, if not in a great offense, look be the second option in the passing game.

I'd say Schultz is a bit in both groups - good offense even if not highly proficient, and until Gallup gets healthy, perhaps the second option for Dak. I do have concerns with the offense taking a step back with Tyron Smith out long term, coupled with the fact that Schultz may be needed to block more with the Smith out.

Kmet and Njoku seem to fit that second group - no one is confusing the Bears and Browns with good offenses, although they could improve. But more importantly, those two seem slated to be big parts of their respective passing games.
 

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