What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Tiki Barber (1 Viewer)

H.K.

Footballguy
I've seen threads before which analyze RB's coming off of big workloads and how it has a negative impact on their production the following year.

On the surface, he appears to be in great physical condition and has a good offense around him, but it is mportant to note that he will be 31 and has averaged 376 touches over the past four seasons. Those numbers are both trending toward the higher end where he may carry more risk than we think.

As such, I am curious to hear what people think about Tiki coming off a 411 touch season (357 rush + 54 recepts.).

TIA

PS - Yes, I am being serious. I am trying to fugure out if he has one good year left in him.

 

buck naked

Footballguy
Last year, he was in better shape than ever. And he played like it. I normally would have my "old guy is about to breakdown" radar sky-high for a 31 year old RB, but it just does not feel that way for Barber.

He also, if I recall correctly, did not have tremendous mileage on him during his first few years.

 

Bri

Footballguy
ward and jacobs may get a few more carries but nothing for Tiki fans to worry about.

I don't see any durability issues with him

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
In case my leaguemates are reading this:

I think that he's an injury risk waiting to happen. Nobody can take the beating he has over the last year and continue to perform at that level.

I think this is the year he hits "the wall" and wouldn't be worth taking until the 3rd round or later.

 

H.K.

Footballguy
ward and jacobs may get a few more carries but nothing for Tiki fans to worry about.

I don't see any durability issues with him
On the surface, you make perfect sense. But I do remember seeing a study last year about RB's coming off of a heavy workload season and not faring as well the following year. I can't remember if the study was for 350 or 400 carries, though.However, the data was overwhelming that those RB's struggled. I do think this subject is worthy of discussion for Tiki, especially since the consensus around here is that most folks would probably spend a top 5-6 pick on him in redrafts.

 

SuperJohn96

RPS World Champion
As a Tiki Barber owner, I just think about how good Curtis Martin looked two season ago when he led the league in rushing, and how he looked the following season...

Food for thought...

 

Bri

Footballguy
ward and jacobs may get a few more carries but nothing for Tiki fans to worry about.

I don't see any durability issues with him
On the surface, you make perfect sense. But I do remember seeing a study last year about RB's coming off of a heavy workload season and not faring as well the following year. I can't remember if the study was for 350 or 400 carries, though.However, the data was overwhelming that those RB's struggled. I do think this subject is worthy of discussion for Tiki, especially since the consensus around here is that most folks would probably spend a top 5-6 pick on him in redrafts.
you used "touches" above then carries in this postThere's a difference esp when a RB catches any many swing passes and scoots out of bounds like Tiki does. Sometimes(sometimes) the hits he takes are minimal

 

SuperJohn96

RPS World Champion
In case my leaguemates are reading this:

I think that he's an injury risk waiting to happen. Nobody can take the beating he has over the last year and continue to perform at that level.

I think this is the year he hits "the wall" and wouldn't be worth taking until the 3rd round or later.
LOL
 

stbugs

Footballguy
As a Tiki Barber owner, I just think about how good Curtis Martin looked two season ago when he led the league in rushing, and how he looked the following season...

Food for thought...
Don't forget about Dillon as well. He helped me win my championship two years ago as well. He had a career season like Martin (or at least the best year in a while) and both had injury issues last year.While I love Tiki and think a lot of him, it wouldn't surprise me if he did get hurt and miss some time.

 

H.K.

Footballguy
you used "touches" above then carries in this post

There's a difference esp when a RB catches any many swing passes and scoots out of bounds like Tiki does. Sometimes(sometimes) the hits he takes are minimal
I can't remember the specific metrics for the study I am referring to, but I think it was based off of carries. Then on top of it, I can't remember if it was the 350+ carry RB's or 400+ carry RB's that had a big drop off the following season....Tiki had 350 carries last year, which is why I am asking...
 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
As a Tiki Barber owner, I just think about how good Curtis Martin looked two season ago when he led the league in rushing, and how he looked the following season...

Food for thought...
Don't forget about Dillon as well. He helped me win my championship two years ago as well. He had a career season like Martin (or at least the best year in a while) and both had injury issues last year.While I love Tiki and think a lot of him, it wouldn't surprise me if he did get hurt and miss some time.
I don't know why, but to me, both those guys exhibited signs of breakdown the season before last. Barber looked like he had week 1 legs in week 17. :shrug:

 

H.K.

Footballguy
As a Tiki Barber owner, I just think about how good Curtis Martin looked two season ago when he led the league in rushing, and how he looked the following season...

Food for thought...
Don't forget about Dillon as well. He helped me win my championship two years ago as well. He had a career season like Martin (or at least the best year in a while) and both had injury issues last year.While I love Tiki and think a lot of him, it wouldn't surprise me if he did get hurt and miss some time.
Ahman Green had a big drop off from 2004 to 2005, too.
 

RC94

Footballguy
Keep in mind Tiki did not get a lot of carries in the beginning of his career. He may be 31 (in April), but he only has 1,890 carries in his career. Plus, he has been very durable up until now and is a notorious workout freak. These are the total carries for some guys already being used as a comparison:

Barber - 1,890

Dillon - 2,419 (2,210 before last year)

Martin - 3,518

James - 2,188

James is about 3 years younger and has spent time injured on more than one occasion and he still has about a full season's worth of carries more than Tiki. Tiki hasn't taken the beating that some guys have taken, and combined with his past durability and workout ethic, I think Tiki has at least 1 or 2 more very good years left. I really don't think he is going to hit the wall this year.

 

stbugs

Footballguy
Keep in mind Tiki did not get a lot of carries in the beginning of his career. He may be 31 (in April), but he only has 1,890 carries in his career. Plus, he has been very durable up until now and is a notorious workout freak. These are the total carries for some guys already being used as a comparison:

Barber - 1,890

Dillon - 2,419 (2,210 before last year)

Martin - 3,518

James - 2,188

James is about 3 years younger and has spent time injured on more than one occasion and he still has about a full season's worth of carries more than Tiki. Tiki hasn't taken the beating that some guys have taken, and combined with his past durability and workout ethic, I think Tiki has at least 1 or 2 more very good years left. I really don't think he is going to hit the wall this year.
Don't forget about receptions. Add those in and you get:Barber - 2418 touches with 2026 in the last 6 years

Dillon - 2385 touches (pre-2005 to do compare) in 8 years

Not saying that Dillon = Barber or that Barber will not do well, but there were rumblings about staying away from Dillon and Martin and it would be silly not to worry/think about it since he is only 6 months younger than Dillon. Barber has averaged almost 340 touches a year for the last 6 years, and that is not insignificant.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
Here's what I had to say on this in another thread . . .

I did a little research on RB with 2500 or more touches (of which there are only 20 RB). Dillon and James just crossed that threshold and Barber and Dunn due to hit it about a month into the season. Here's how other RB ranked in seasons after hitting the 2,500 touch milestone:Emmitt (18, 6, 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 23)Payton (16, 5, 4, 4, 5, 27)Martin (18, 18, 4, 29)Bettis (21, 31, 26, 18, 36)Allen (5, 19, 24, 15, 27)Faulk (14, 16, 29, 53)Sanders (1, 10)Thomas (40, 40, 88, 69)Dorsett (25, 45, 31)Dickerson (32, 33, 32, 103)Harris (15, 18, 105)Riggins (7, 38)George (22, 41)Watters (8, 60)Anderson (16, 88, 117)Dillon (?)Byner (DNP)Simpson (63)Craig (70)James (?)IMO, that's a mixed bag of results. Only 3 of them could muster at least 2 more Top 10 seasons. I think this merits watching, especially with Barber, Dillon, James, and Dunn entering this group.
 

RC94

Footballguy
Keep in mind Tiki did not get a lot of carries in the beginning of his career.  He may be 31 (in April), but he only has 1,890 carries in his career.  Plus, he has been very durable up until now and is a notorious workout freak.  These are the total carries for some guys already being used as a comparison:

Barber - 1,890

Dillon - 2,419 (2,210 before last year)

Martin - 3,518

James - 2,188

James is about 3 years younger and has spent time injured on more than one occasion and he still has about a full season's worth of carries more than Tiki.  Tiki hasn't taken the beating that some guys have taken, and combined with his past durability and workout ethic, I think Tiki has at least 1 or 2 more very good years left.  I really don't think he is going to hit the wall this year.
Don't forget about receptions. Add those in and you get:Barber - 2418 touches with 2026 in the last 6 years

Dillon - 2385 touches (pre-2005 to do compare) in 8 years

Not saying that Dillon = Barber or that Barber will not do well, but there were rumblings about staying away from Dillon and Martin and it would be silly not to worry/think about it since he is only 6 months younger than Dillon. Barber has averaged almost 340 touches a year for the last 6 years, and that is not insignificant.
I didn't say that it was silly to worry about it. There is evidence to be concerned, but despite that, I think he has at least another very good year left. There is a decent case to think that as well, so it's debatable, which is why I don't think it's silly to take either side. I do also hope the Giants draft a RB in one of the mid-rounds as a possible replacement down the road. I don't think Jacobs is going going to be the one.
 

Koya

Footballguy
As touched upon earlier in this thread, Tiki has 50+ touches on passes, which usually result in less contact.

Moreover, Tiki's running style in general is not the plodding Eddie George looking for contact carrying three guys on him type style. Compared to many "workhorse" type backs, I would venture to say Tiki takes a lot less abuse than most.

Now, this is certainly something to be aware of, but in light of his light use early in career and less damage taken in terms of "hard hits" I would not have this as any more than one minor red flag.

I see no reason he will be less productive next year unless an injury (and not one caused by wear and tear... #### happens in the NFL) occurs, and I could see two more close to peak years.

That said, I will hold off the long term prognostications as any RB with that many carries at some point will likely hit the wall. I dont see it now, but we have to re-examine going into next year.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
I'm not 100% buying the argument that Barber had fewer touches in his first few years so he has more treadlife left than your typical 31 year old RB.

Over the past 4 seasons, Barber has had a total of 1,504 touches. Only 9 RB have had 1,500 touches in a 4-year stretch. Those RB have done that a total of 20 times.

Here are those 20 occurances and how that player did in the last year of that 4 year span followed by how he did the following season:

Tomlinson (01-04) 1654 touches 3 --> 3

Tomlinson (02-05) 1646 touches 3 --> ?

ESmith (92-95) 1629 touches 1 --> 6

ESmith (91-94) 1604 touches 1 --> 1

Martin (98-01) 1596 touches 5--> 18

Dickerson (83-86) 1583 touches 1 --> 3

ESmith (93-96) 1571 touches 6 --> 18

George (97-00) 1569 touches 3 --> 19

George (98-01) 1557 touches 19 --> 10

George (99-02) 1551 touches 10 --> 22

Williams (00-03) 1537 touches 9 --> DNP

ESmith (94-97) 1532 touches 18 --> 6

Payton (78-81) 1526 touches 13 --> 16

Martin (97-00) 1525 touches 10 --> 5

Payton (83-86) 1524 touches 5 --> 27

George (00-03) 1518 touches 22 --> 41

Payton (77-80) 1512 touches 4 --> 13

Watters (95-98) 1507 touches 9 --> 9

Barber (02-05) 1504 touches 4 --> ?

Martin (96-99) 1501 touches 8 --> 10

IMO, it appears unlikely that Barber will do BETTER than he did last year, and if he is similar to these other RB chances are he may slip some.

 

stbugs

Footballguy
Keep in mind Tiki did not get a lot of carries in the beginning of his career.  He may be 31 (in April), but he only has 1,890 carries in his career.  Plus, he has been very durable up until now and is a notorious workout freak.  These are the total carries for some guys already being used as a comparison:

Barber - 1,890

Dillon - 2,419 (2,210 before last year)

Martin - 3,518

James - 2,188

James is about 3 years younger and has spent time injured on more than one occasion and he still has about a full season's worth of carries more than Tiki.  Tiki hasn't taken the beating that some guys have taken, and combined with his past durability and workout ethic, I think Tiki has at least 1 or 2 more very good years left.  I really don't think he is going to hit the wall this year.
Don't forget about receptions. Add those in and you get:Barber - 2418 touches with 2026 in the last 6 years

Dillon - 2385 touches (pre-2005 to do compare) in 8 years

Not saying that Dillon = Barber or that Barber will not do well, but there were rumblings about staying away from Dillon and Martin and it would be silly not to worry/think about it since he is only 6 months younger than Dillon. Barber has averaged almost 340 touches a year for the last 6 years, and that is not insignificant.
I didn't say that it was silly to worry about it. There is evidence to be concerned, but despite that, I think he has at least another very good year left. There is a decent case to think that as well, so it's debatable, which is why I don't think it's silly to take either side. I do also hope the Giants draft a RB in one of the mid-rounds as a possible replacement down the road. I don't think Jacobs is going going to be the one.
No worries, I kind of agree with you. Just more of an observation that a couple of the "might hit the wall" guys did last year. As have a number of other backs recently (Green, maybe even Lewis after 2003 as well). I am more cautious because I was actually hoping to snag Dillon in my draft because he had ended 2004 so well. Dillon was looking like 2005 would be a huge year if he could start it like he ended 2004.That is the main reason, why I worry more than most about Barber. I think I might take a guy with a little bit less risk and maybe less upside. It just depends on the pick and who is left. I wouldn't not take Barber at a good value, but he will hit a wall, it is just when, and he had such a good 2005, that he will be taken early (I think?).

 

RC94

Footballguy
Keep in mind Tiki did not get a lot of carries in the beginning of his career.  He may be 31 (in April), but he only has 1,890 carries in his career.  Plus, he has been very durable up until now and is a notorious workout freak.  These are the total carries for some guys already being used as a comparison:

Barber - 1,890

Dillon - 2,419 (2,210 before last year)

Martin - 3,518

James - 2,188

James is about 3 years younger and has spent time injured on more than one occasion and he still has about a full season's worth of carries more than Tiki.  Tiki hasn't taken the beating that some guys have taken, and combined with his past durability and workout ethic, I think Tiki has at least 1 or 2 more very good years left.  I really don't think he is going to hit the wall this year.
Don't forget about receptions. Add those in and you get:Barber - 2418 touches with 2026 in the last 6 years

Dillon - 2385 touches (pre-2005 to do compare) in 8 years

Not saying that Dillon = Barber or that Barber will not do well, but there were rumblings about staying away from Dillon and Martin and it would be silly not to worry/think about it since he is only 6 months younger than Dillon. Barber has averaged almost 340 touches a year for the last 6 years, and that is not insignificant.
I didn't say that it was silly to worry about it. There is evidence to be concerned, but despite that, I think he has at least another very good year left. There is a decent case to think that as well, so it's debatable, which is why I don't think it's silly to take either side. I do also hope the Giants draft a RB in one of the mid-rounds as a possible replacement down the road. I don't think Jacobs is going going to be the one.
No worries, I kind of agree with you. Just more of an observation that a couple of the "might hit the wall" guys did last year. As have a number of other backs recently (Green, maybe even Lewis after 2003 as well). I am more cautious because I was actually hoping to snag Dillon in my draft because he had ended 2004 so well. Dillon was looking like 2005 would be a huge year if he could start it like he ended 2004.That is the main reason, why I worry more than most about Barber. I think I might take a guy with a little bit less risk and maybe less upside. It just depends on the pick and who is left. I wouldn't not take Barber at a good value, but he will hit a wall, it is just when, and he had such a good 2005, that he will be taken early (I think?).
Getting burned (or almost) by a guy in the past who was in a similar situation can definitely add caution, so I know what you mean. I also agree with you that Barber will probably be taken pretty early in redrafts and would be a risk-reward type of selection. I guess I feel that he is more like a Curtis Martin than Dillon and still has some more carries in him. I like what I have seen from him the past few years and he has shown no signs of slowing down, not that the wall doesn't show up suddenly sometimes. He is always one of the most in-shape people on the field as well, so I am still optimistic.
 

H.K.

Footballguy
Here's what I had to say on this in another thread . . .

I did a little research on RB with 2500 or more touches (of which there are only 20 RB). Dillon and James just crossed that threshold and Barber and Dunn due to hit it about a month into the season. Here's how other RB ranked in seasons after hitting the 2,500 touch milestone:

Emmitt (18, 6, 5, 20, 25, 26, 63, 23)

Payton (16, 5, 4, 4, 5, 27)

Martin (18, 18, 4, 29)

Bettis (21, 31, 26, 18, 36)

Allen (5, 19, 24, 15, 27)

Faulk (14, 16, 29, 53)

Sanders (1, 10)

Thomas (40, 40, 88, 69)

Dorsett (25, 45, 31)

Dickerson (32, 33, 32, 103)

Harris (15, 18, 105)

Riggins (7, 38)

George (22, 41)

Watters (8, 60)

Anderson (16, 88, 117)

Dillon (?)

Byner (DNP)

Simpson (63)

Craig (70)

James (?)

IMO, that's a mixed bag of results. Only 3 of them could muster at least 2 more Top 10 seasons. I think this merits watching, especially with Barber, Dillon, James, and Dunn entering this group.
Awesome info., this shows that only 4 out of 17 finished in the top 10 after hitting 2500....I knew there were stats indicating a drop off. Thanks!
 

JohnDoe

Footballguy
Here is some more information to chew on. Not trying to make a point, just adding more stats to the discussion.

During a discussion of RBs who were over 30 and performance I decided to put together a listing of when a RB had their “peak” season (shown here with an index of 1.00) to see if one could determine at what point performance declined due to the number of total touches. I found the peak seasons for RBs who were active in 1980 or later and had at least one season of more than 140 fantasy points, and totaled their career touches for each season. I sorted this list by peak season then by total touches. What you see is the top 10 on my list. I show, for comparison, the player’s previous season (n-1) and next season (n+1). On the surface it looks like that the player’s next season will show a small decline from his (n-1) season. This is probably a natural progression due to age and wear and tear.

As a disclaimer I should point out that it should be expected that a player will decline after a peak season, however, I think that what we should look at is how much we expect that player to decline. Look at Tiki’s 2004 season for an example of this. 2004 should be his “peak” season and based on total touches we would have expected a decline in 2005. He did not decline, he improved.

Notes: John Riggins total points in 1982 had to be adjusted due to the strike (9 game season). Points are projected for 16 games. Dillon was injured in 2003, 2002 season stats are shown for comparison.

The total column after rushing attempts is career rushes. The total column after the receptions is career receptions. The Touches column is the total of these two.

Code:
Name	Pos	DOB	Year	Age	Rush	Total	RushYds	RushTD	Rec	Total	RecYDs	RecTD	Touches  Points   Index Martin,Curtis	rb	1973	2003	30	323	2927	1308	2	42	419	262	0	3346  169.00   0.61 Martin,Curtis	rb	1973	2004	31	371	3298	1697	12	41	460	245	2	3758  278.20   1.00 Martin,Curtis	rb	1973	2005	32	220	3518	735	5	24	484	118	0	4002  115.30   0.41 Sanders,Barry	rb	1968	1996	28	307	2384	1553	11	24	282	147	0	2666  236.00   0.74 Sanders,Barry	rb	1968	1997	29	335	2719	2053	11	33	315	305	3	3034  319.80   1.00 Sanders,Barry	rb	1968	1998	30	343	3062	1491	4	37	352	289	0	3414  202.00   0.63 Dorsett,Tony	rb	1954	1984	30	302	2136	1189	6	51	292	459	1	2428  206.80   0.88 Dorsett,Tony	rb	1954	1985	31	305	2441	1307	7	46	338	449	3	2779  235.60   1.00 Dorsett,Tony	rb	1954	1986	32	184	2625	748	5	25	363	267	1	2988  137.50   0.58 Riggins,John	rb	1949	1982	33	177	2038	553	3	10	232	50	0	2270  139.20   0.49 Riggins,John	rb	1949	1983	34	375	2413	1347	24	5	237	29	0	2650  281.60   1.00 Riggins,John	rb	1949	1984	35	327	2740	1239	14	7	244	43	0	2984  212.20   0.75 Barber,Tiki	rb	1975	2003	28	278	1210	1216	2	69	422	461	1	1632  185.70   0.61 Barber,Tiki	rb	1975	2004	29	322	1532	1518	13	52	474	578	2	2006  299.60   0.98 Barber,Tiki	rb	1975	2005	30	357	1889	1860	9	54	528	530	2	2417  305.00   1.00 Dillon,Corey	rb	1974	2002	28	314	1727	1311	7	43	181	298	0	1908  202.90   0.81 Dillon,Corey	rb	1974	2003	29	138	1865	541	2	11	192	71	0	2057  73.20   0.29 Dillon,Corey	rb	1974	2004	30	345	2210	1635	12	15	207	103	1	2417  251.80   1.00 Dillon,Corey	rb	1974	2005	31	209	2419	733	12	22	229	181	1	2648  169.40   0.67 Faulk,Marshall	rb	1973	1999	26	253	1642	1381	7	87	384	1048	5	2026  314.90   0.84 Faulk,Marshall	rb	1973	2000	27	253	1895	1359	18	81	465	830	8	2360  374.90   1.00 Faulk,Marshall	rb	1973	2001	28	260	2155	1382	12	83	548	765	9	2703  340.70   0.91 Smith,Emmitt	rb	1969	1994	25	368	1630	1484	21	50	239	341	1	1869  314.50   0.86 Smith,Emmitt	rb	1969	1995	26	377	2007	1773	25	62	301	375	0	2308  364.80   1.00 Smith,Emmitt	rb	1969	1996	27	327	2334	1204	12	47	348	249	3	2682  235.30   0.65 Harris,Franco	rb	1950	1978	28	310	1745	1082	8	22	138	144	0	1883  170.60   0.78 Harris,Franco	rb	1950	1979	29	267	2012	1186	11	36	174	291	1	2186  219.70   1.00 Harris,Franco	rb	1950	1980	30	208	2220	789	4	30	204	196	2	2424  134.50   0.61 George,Eddie	rb	1973	1999	26	320	1360	1304	9	47	114	458	4	1474  254.20   0.87 George,Eddie	rb	1973	2000	27	403	1763	1509	14	50	164	453	2	1927  292.20   1.00 George,Eddie	rb	1973	2001	28	315	2078	939	5	37	201	279	0	2279  151.80   0.52
 

H.K.

Footballguy
As a disclaimer I should point out that it should be expected that a player will decline after a peak season, however, I think that what we should look at is how much we expect that player to decline. Look at Tiki’s 2004 season for an example of this. 2004 should be his “peak” season and based on total touches we would have expected a decline in 2005. He did not decline, he improved.
Incredible data, great post. Tiki was the only guy to actually outperform his peak year.A quick calculation of all ten RB's following their peak season shows an average drop off of 32.5%.

This shows that Barber really defied the odds last year and really makes me wonder if he can do it twice in a row. Historical data is not in his favor....unless you look at his own personal track record. ;)

I guess people can take this as analysis-paralysis or put some weight into it when projecting his numbers this season.

 

Koya

Footballguy
As a disclaimer I should point out that it should be expected that a player will decline after a peak season, however, I think that what we should look at is how much we expect that player to decline.  Look at Tiki’s 2004 season for an example of this.  2004 should be his “peak” season and based on total touches we would have expected a decline in 2005.  He did not decline, he improved. 
Incredible data, great post. Tiki was the only guy to actually outperform his peak year.A quick calculation of all ten RB's following their peak season shows an average drop off of 32.5%.

This shows that Barber really defied the odds last year and really makes me wonder if he can do it twice in a row. Historical data is not in his favor....unless you look at his own personal track record. ;)

I guess people can take this as analysis-paralysis or put some weight into it when projecting his numbers this season.
Love the analysis. Sometimes in football, you have to go by what you see. What I see is no reason to expect a huge decline unless there is a significant injury.But, these numbers might once again push Tiki's value down enough for him to be a value... yet again.

 

JohnDoe

Footballguy
I would like to add one more name to the list. At No. 11 is:

Name Pos DOB Year Age Rush RushYds RushTD Catch CatchYDs CatchTD Touches Points Index Alexander,Shaun rb 1977 2001 24 309 1318 14 44 343 2 422 262.10 0.72 Alexander,Shaun rb 1977 2002 25 295 1175 16 59 460 2 776 271.50 0.75 Alexander,Shaun rb 1977 2003 26 326 1435 14 42 295 2 1144 269.00 0.74 Alexander,Shaun rb 1977 2004 27 353 1696 16 23 170 4 1520 306.60 0.84 Alexander,Shaun rb 1977 2005 28 370 1880 27 15 78 1 1905 363.80 1.00He has been very consistent as a starter. The general opinion is that he will be the overall No. 1 pick in most drafts this year. In my opinion 2006 will look a lot closer to 2001-2004 than to 2005 based on his track record.

 
Just wanted to point out about Curtis Martin and Corey Dillon... If you include just postseason carries, they both went over 400 and played late into playoffs.

I always felt that had something to do with their decline and injuries last year, Dillon especially.

Now you have SA coming off a 430 carry season who played through the Super Bowl. I am curious to see what effect, if any, this has on him.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
Just wanted to point out about Curtis Martin and Corey Dillon... If you include just postseason carries, they both went over 400 and played late into playoffs.

I always felt that had something to do with their decline and injuries last year, Dillon especially.

Now you have SA coming off a 430 carry season who played through the Super Bowl. I am curious to see what effect, if any, this has on him.
On first blush, there does seem to be some validity to the concept of 400 total carries (adding in post season as well) and breaking down the next year. I will research and report back.
 

stbugs

Footballguy
Here is some more information to chew on. Not trying to make a point, just adding more stats to the discussion.

During a discussion of RBs who were over 30 and performance I decided to put together a listing of when a RB had their “peak” season (shown here with an index of 1.00) to see if one could determine at what point performance declined due to the number of total touches. I found the peak seasons for RBs who were active in 1980 or later and had at least one season of more than 140 fantasy points, and totaled their career touches for each season. I sorted this list by peak season then by total touches. What you see is the top 10 on my list. I show, for comparison, the player’s previous season (n-1) and next season (n+1). On the surface it looks like that the player’s next season will show a small decline from his (n-1) season. This is probably a natural progression due to age and wear and tear.

As a disclaimer I should point out that it should be expected that a player will decline after a peak season, however, I think that what we should look at is how much we expect that player to decline. Look at Tiki’s 2004 season for an example of this. 2004 should be his “peak” season and based on total touches we would have expected a decline in 2005. He did not decline, he improved.

Notes: John Riggins total points in 1982 had to be adjusted due to the strike (9 game season). Points are projected for 16 games. Dillon was injured in 2003, 2002 season stats are shown for comparison.

The total column after rushing attempts is career rushes. The total column after the receptions is career receptions. The Touches column is the total of these two.

Name Pos DOB Year Age Rush Total RushYds RushTD Rec Total RecYDs RecTD Touches  Points   Index Martin,Curtis rb 1973 2003 30 323 2927 1308 2 42 419 262 0 3346  169.00   0.61 Martin,Curtis rb 1973 2004 31 371 3298 1697 12 41 460 245 2 3758  278.20   1.00 Martin,Curtis rb 1973 2005 32 220 3518 735 5 24 484 118 0 4002  115.30   0.41 Sanders,Barry rb 1968 1996 28 307 2384 1553 11 24 282 147 0 2666  236.00   0.74 Sanders,Barry rb 1968 1997 29 335 2719 2053 11 33 315 305 3 3034  319.80   1.00 Sanders,Barry rb 1968 1998 30 343 3062 1491 4 37 352 289 0 3414  202.00   0.63 Dorsett,Tony rb 1954 1984 30 302 2136 1189 6 51 292 459 1 2428  206.80   0.88 Dorsett,Tony rb 1954 1985 31 305 2441 1307 7 46 338 449 3 2779  235.60   1.00 Dorsett,Tony rb 1954 1986 32 184 2625 748 5 25 363 267 1 2988  137.50   0.58 Riggins,John rb 1949 1982 33 177 2038 553 3 10 232 50 0 2270  139.20   0.49 Riggins,John rb 1949 1983 34 375 2413 1347 24 5 237 29 0 2650  281.60   1.00 Riggins,John rb 1949 1984 35 327 2740 1239 14 7 244 43 0 2984  212.20   0.75 Barber,Tiki rb 1975 2003 28 278 1210 1216 2 69 422 461 1 1632  185.70   0.61 Barber,Tiki rb 1975 2004 29 322 1532 1518 13 52 474 578 2 2006  299.60   0.98 Barber,Tiki rb 1975 2005 30 357 1889 1860 9 54 528 530 2 2417  305.00   1.00 Dillon,Corey rb 1974 2002 28 314 1727 1311 7 43 181 298 0 1908  202.90   0.81 Dillon,Corey rb 1974 2003 29 138 1865 541 2 11 192 71 0 2057  73.20   0.29 Dillon,Corey rb 1974 2004 30 345 2210 1635 12 15 207 103 1 2417  251.80   1.00 Dillon,Corey rb 1974 2005 31 209 2419 733 12 22 229 181 1 2648  169.40   0.67 Faulk,Marshall rb 1973 1999 26 253 1642 1381 7 87 384 1048 5 2026  314.90   0.84 Faulk,Marshall rb 1973 2000 27 253 1895 1359 18 81 465 830 8 2360  374.90   1.00 Faulk,Marshall rb 1973 2001 28 260 2155 1382 12 83 548 765 9 2703  340.70   0.91 Smith,Emmitt rb 1969 1994 25 368 1630 1484 21 50 239 341 1 1869  314.50   0.86 Smith,Emmitt rb 1969 1995 26 377 2007 1773 25 62 301 375 0 2308  364.80   1.00 Smith,Emmitt rb 1969 1996 27 327 2334 1204 12 47 348 249 3 2682  235.30   0.65 Harris,Franco rb 1950 1978 28 310 1745 1082 8 22 138 144 0 1883  170.60   0.78 Harris,Franco rb 1950 1979 29 267 2012 1186 11 36 174 291 1 2186  219.70   1.00 Harris,Franco rb 1950 1980 30 208 2220 789 4 30 204 196 2 2424  134.50   0.61 George,Eddie rb 1973 1999 26 320 1360 1304 9 47 114 458 4 1474  254.20   0.87 George,Eddie rb 1973 2000 27 403 1763 1509 14 50 164 453 2 1927  292.20   1.00 George,Eddie rb 1973 2001 28 315 2078 939 5 37 201 279 0 2279  151.80   0.52
I don't understand the data. You say that Barber's peak was 2004, but his index was 0.98. Isn't 2005 really the peak year? I don't see much difference in index values from 1994-1995 Emmitt Smith to 2004-2005 Tiki Barber.Also, you have Emmitt Smith, Marshall Faulk, and Eddie George in there from ages 25-28, not over 30, so how is this data relevant to Barber?

Looking back at any RB's career, even a guy who is only 24, if you show his peak year and peak year +1, peak year +1 will always have a drop off as you stated above. I understand what you are trying to get at, but until we have passed the fact, there is no certainty that Tiki peaked.

 

JohnDoe

Footballguy
1. Tiki's 2004 season was his career year, until 2005 came along. That is relevant to the discussion that, yes, a player can have what is termed a career year and then have a better year the next year. Priest Holmes did it also (at the ages of 29 and 30). Priest's total career touches at that point were 1319 and 1713 respectively. There was some discussion on how we should value Priest after those two seasons, the second of which he was coming off of a hip injury IIRC. Priest was having a good year at age 31 before he was injured again.

2. This list was to just show how many career touches a RB had when he reached has his career year (defined as his most points scored during his career). I took only the seasons that were career highs and sorted the list by total touches, leaving age out the equation. There was some discussion in this thread, and in others, on which is a better gauge on a RBs lifespan, total touches or age. It has been pointed out that Tiki had a light workload early in his career (like Priest) and that should be factored in. This list does reflect that Smith, Faulk, and George all had their career years between 25-28, but they also had total touches at that point in their careers of 2308, 2360, and 1927 respectively.

Yes, there is expected to be a drop off from a player's career year back to his playing norm. The dicussion is focused on Tiki and two facts: 1. his age and 2 the total number of touches in his career. My personal opinion is that his numbers should be projected around his 2003 totals with a slight decrease due to natural aging and deterioration of skills.

 

Bri

Footballguy
most of the guys posting stats in this thread used to justify martin flopping with these. He led the NFL in rushing shortly after.

I think this is overanalyzation and you should just accept that a player's special and quit planning his demise

 

bagger.

The One Play Quiz
I've seen threads before which analyze RB's coming off of big workloads and how it has a negative impact on their production the following year.

On the surface, he appears to be in great physical condition and has a good offense around him, but it is mportant to note that he will be 31 and has averaged 376 touches over the past four seasons. Those numbers are both trending toward the higher end where he may carry more risk than we think.

As such, I am curious to hear what people think about Tiki coming off a 411 touch season (357 rush + 54 recepts.).

TIA

PS - Yes, I am being serious. I am trying to fugure out if he has one good year left in him.
I am typically higher on Tiki than anyone else. That said, he is entering the danger zone where his age risk will be too high as to where he will be drafted.
 

stbugs

Footballguy
1. Tiki's 2004 season was his career year, until 2005 came along. That is relevant to the discussion that, yes, a player can have what is termed a career year and then have a better year the next year. Priest Holmes did it also (at the ages of 29 and 30). Priest's total career touches at that point were 1319 and 1713 respectively. There was some discussion on how we should value Priest after those two seasons, the second of which he was coming off of a hip injury IIRC. Priest was having a good year at age 31 before he was injured again.

2. This list was to just show how many career touches a RB had when he reached has his career year (defined as his most points scored during his career). I took only the seasons that were career highs and sorted the list by total touches, leaving age out the equation. There was some discussion in this thread, and in others, on which is a better gauge on a RBs lifespan, total touches or age. It has been pointed out that Tiki had a light workload early in his career (like Priest) and that should be factored in. This list does reflect that Smith, Faulk, and George all had their career years between 25-28, but they also had total touches at that point in their careers of 2308, 2360, and 1927 respectively.

Yes, there is expected to be a drop off from a player's career year back to his playing norm. The dicussion is focused on Tiki and two facts: 1. his age and 2 the total number of touches in his career. My personal opinion is that his numbers should be projected around his 2003 totals with a slight decrease due to natural aging and deterioration of skills.
I guess I am missing something, because if it was 1995 and you took the same tact, couldn't you say that Emmitt exceeded his 1994 career year and in 2000 couldn't you have said that Faulk exceed his 1999 career year. I think I understand your point, but until Tiki hits a wall, we won't know for sure. Maybe 2006, Tiki will do even better. I do agree that he will probably go back closer to an average of the 2003/2004 seasons, maybe all the way down to 2003.You bring up Holmes, which is a very interesting comparison. There is a guy who some might say was fresh because of a lack of carries like Barber, but two big seasons getting right around 30 years old and he certainly hit a wall fantasy wise, so to speak.

 

stbugs

Footballguy
I've seen threads before which analyze RB's coming off of big workloads and how it has a negative impact on their production the following year.

On the surface, he appears to be in great physical condition and has a good offense around him, but it is mportant to note that he will be 31 and has averaged 376 touches over the past four seasons. Those numbers are both trending toward the higher end where he may carry more risk than we think.

As such, I am curious to hear what people think about Tiki coming off a 411 touch season (357 rush + 54 recepts.). 

TIA

PS - Yes, I am being serious. I am trying to fugure out if he has one good year left in him.
I am typically higher on Tiki than anyone else. That said, he is entering the danger zone where his age risk will be too high as to where he will be drafted.
I agree completely. I can't see how he will be undervalued considering his 2004/2005 seasons and his risk at age 31. Martin hit the wall at age 32, Holmes hit the wall at 31, Faulk hit the wall at 31, Emmitt hit the wall at 31/32, Eddie George hit the wall at 30, and that's all I want to look up. ;) By hitting the wall, I mean that fantasy wise, the scoring went way down from previous top years.

I think Tiki will have a good year, but he will get riskier due to his age every year he plays.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
I ran some numbers on the 400+ theory = greater chance of a breakdown in Year X + 1.

There were 69 players that I could identify that had 400 or more carries in any given season (including the postseason). All of them ranked Top 10 in Year X with an average ranking of 3.7. In Year X + 1, there were 36 players that again ranked in the Top 10 (out of 64 eligible players). The average ranking in Year X + 1 was 15.3.

The average number of carries in Year X was 442. In Year X+1 it was 340 (but remember, not all teams made the playoffs the next year so the drop off is a bit misleading).

Of those players that were 30 or older . . .

Corey Dillon in 2004/2005 had his ranking drop from 7 to 16

Curtis Martin in 2004/2005 had his ranking drop from 4 to 29

Priest Holmes in 2003/2004 had his ranking drop from 1 to 12

Walter Payton in 1985/1986 had his ranking drop from 4 to 5

Walter Payton in 1984/85 had his ranking stay at 4

John Riggins in 1983/1984 had his ranking drop from 3 to 7

 
I ran some numbers on the 400+ theory = greater chance of a breakdown in Year X + 1.

There were 69 players that I could identify that had 400 or more carries in any given season (including the postseason). All of them ranked Top 10 in Year X with an average ranking of 3.7. In Year X + 1, there were 36 players that again ranked in the Top 10 (out of 64 eligible players). The average ranking in Year X + 1 was 15.3.

The average number of carries in Year X was 442. In Year X+1 it was 340 (but remember, not all teams made the playoffs the next year so the drop off is a bit misleading).

Of those players that were 30 or older . . .

Corey Dillon in 2004/2005 had his ranking drop from 7 to 16

Curtis Martin in 2004/2005 had his ranking drop from 4 to 29

Priest Holmes in 2003/2004 had his ranking drop from 1 to 12

Walter Payton in 1985/1986 had his ranking drop from 4 to 5

Walter Payton in 1984/85 had his ranking stay at 4

John Riggins in 1983/1984 had his ranking drop from 3 to 7
It looks like their decline was no different than the average expected RB decline.340 carries is more than enough to sustain a top 5 ranking.

 

David Yudkin

Footballguy
I ran some numbers on the 400+ theory = greater chance of a breakdown in Year X + 1.

There were 69 players that I could identify that had 400 or more carries in any given season (including the postseason).  All of them ranked Top 10 in Year X with an average ranking of 3.7.  In Year X + 1, there were 36 players that again ranked in the Top 10 (out of 64 eligible players).  The average ranking in Year X + 1 was 15.3.

The average number of carries in Year X was 442.  In Year X+1 it was 340 (but remember, not all teams made the playoffs the next year so the drop off is a bit misleading).

Of those players that were 30 or older . . .

Corey Dillon in 2004/2005 had his ranking drop from 7 to 16

Curtis Martin in 2004/2005 had his ranking drop from 4 to 29

Priest Holmes in 2003/2004 had his ranking drop from 1 to 12

Walter Payton in 1985/1986 had his ranking drop from 4 to 5

Walter Payton in 1984/85 had his ranking stay at 4

John Riggins in 1983/1984 had his ranking drop from 3 to 7
It looks like their decline was no different than the average expected RB decline.340 carries is more than enough to sustain a top 5 ranking.
If you better absorbed what I posted, it was an average of 340 TOUCHES that INCLUDED THE POST SEASON. Similarly, the average ranking in Year X + 1 fell to an average ranking of 15.3, which is A FAR CRY from a top 5 ranking.
 
Last edited by a moderator:

Users who are viewing this thread

Top