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Time Limit Per Pick (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Z-Men
- Start date
Just to reiterate.
BoltThrower
Footballguy
I'm feelin' you Z-men, unlike these other tools. I say option 3 (and what you likely did) is just let it flow and not even sweat it. You know you're going to find the studs whether you pick in the 8th or the 9th, so you let them all start feeling comfortable, superior even. Let them have your receivers. Let them have Garcia. Then when your turn comes in the 9th - BAM! POW! you give them a left-right combo to the body and drop Eddie Kennison AND Jay Fiedler knowledge on them and leave them reeling on the ropes. You da man.Play on, playa.
Rooster
Footballguy
I think this guy would probably sell a lot more books if he didn't come off so arrogant and treat everyone else as if they were 5 year olds. Seriously, if he would've followed MT's advice and just posted what he did and why, he might've got some good response and drummed up some interest in his product (assuming what he did made any sense). Instead, he's now being ridiculed all because he wants to stroke his ego, which I'm doubting will help his book sales.
Giant Wooden Badger
the Beav
Time to move this to the FFA where it belongs.
M
mojorizin
Guest
I'll not have this type of drivel cluttering up the collection of poop threads and "who's hottest" polls. Thanks just the same.
Z-Men
Footballguy
Hey guys, very sorry for delay, was on the road all day. Okay, so here's the third option every1 has been patiently waiting for -- the one I implemented in the 8th and 9th rounds of the 2003 World Championship of Fantasy Football:
Third Option: Something I call "clock management." I could pass on my turn to wait and see how several of my opponents draft after me before taking any action. I was under no pressure to draft a WR now because I had several at my disposal. I also felt safe in waiting to draft Garcia, at least until it was Team Two’s turn to pick.
So, my plan was to wait four picks before making any kind of decision, which was right before Team Two's pick. If, by that time, none of my WRs were drafted, then I would opt to pick up Garcia. This put me in a nice position to get one of the three WRs on the wrap-around because there would only be eight picks left before it was my turn again – a much better situation than taking Garcia now and having to wait 12 picks for one of the WRs to wrap around. Should one or more of the WRs be drafted before it was Tm2’s turn, then I’d have to make a judgment call before Tm2 made its selection. I’d have the same three options: I could take a WR, choose Garcia, or continue to stall.
Without getting into more detail or revealing the actual outcome I'd like to hear your response. Some advanced stuff, but indeed it maximizes my chance to get both Garcia and a WR. -z-
Third Option: Something I call "clock management." I could pass on my turn to wait and see how several of my opponents draft after me before taking any action. I was under no pressure to draft a WR now because I had several at my disposal. I also felt safe in waiting to draft Garcia, at least until it was Team Two’s turn to pick.
So, my plan was to wait four picks before making any kind of decision, which was right before Team Two's pick. If, by that time, none of my WRs were drafted, then I would opt to pick up Garcia. This put me in a nice position to get one of the three WRs on the wrap-around because there would only be eight picks left before it was my turn again – a much better situation than taking Garcia now and having to wait 12 picks for one of the WRs to wrap around. Should one or more of the WRs be drafted before it was Tm2’s turn, then I’d have to make a judgment call before Tm2 made its selection. I’d have the same three options: I could take a WR, choose Garcia, or continue to stall.
Without getting into more detail or revealing the actual outcome I'd like to hear your response. Some advanced stuff, but indeed it maximizes my chance to get both Garcia and a WR. -z-
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M
mojorizin
Guest
You seem like an affable chap, but you are completely bananas.I got enough trouble figuring out what jwvdcw is always on about. You sir, are a completely different fish altogether.
Z-Men, I've actually read your book(a bootleg copy that I read before the actual book came out actually). I enjoyed the first read so much that I sandpapered the edges down and read it a second time 
....I have many thoughts, but I'll start with asking you a simple series of questions:Would you advocate drafting without paying heed to your innermost timetable when it?
....I have many thoughts, but I'll start with asking you a simple series of questions:Would you advocate drafting without paying heed to your innermost timetable when it?
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Ummm...ok, I'll simplifyNow I know exactly what you mean majorizin when you said I got enough trouble figuring out what jwvdcw is always on about. Funny stuff. -z-Z-Men, I've actually read your book(a bootleg copy that I read before the actual book came out actually). I enjoyed the first read so much that I sandpapered the edges down and read it a second time
Would you advocate drafting without paying heed to your innermost timetable when it?
o you count seconds in your head or do you rely upon an official "timekeeper"?
radballs.
Footballguy
stugnut
Footballguy
http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=163715
That about sums up Z-Men's modus operandi.
What's next, a new user registered on June 22, 2005 with a first post of, "Hey, has anyone read the book Drafting To Win: The Ultimate Guide To Fantasy Football? I hear the guy who wrote it really knows his FF and I too can become a Professional Fantasy Football-Meister for the low price of $22.95. Should I buy it?"
:X
That about sums up Z-Men's modus operandi.
What's next, a new user registered on June 22, 2005 with a first post of, "Hey, has anyone read the book Drafting To Win: The Ultimate Guide To Fantasy Football? I hear the guy who wrote it really knows his FF and I too can become a Professional Fantasy Football-Meister for the low price of $22.95. Should I buy it?"
:X
Z-Men
Footballguy
Tough crowd. 
Here's an entire posting of what happened as it's now obvious many are being annoyed at my "interval" postings:First option: I could draft one of the WRs now in which case I’d have to simply hope Garcia fell to me in the ninth. However, I was really worried about Tm2 since they were the one team sitting behind me that didn’t have a QB yet. I concluded it was too risky to simply take a WR now and just hope Garcia wrapped around to me. Second Option: I could draft Garcia now and hope at least one of the three WRs falls to me in the ninth. This seemed like a better possibility than the first option because all three WRs would have to be drafted for this plan not to work. However, I noticed a run of WRs being taken – six in a row had just been drafted! If this trend were to continue then I’d no doubt lose out on all three WRs. Consequently, I decided this second option was just as risky an endeavor as the first.At this point you’re probably asking, What other options are there???Third Option: clock management. Of course! I could pass on my turn to wait and see how several of my opponents draft after me before taking any action. I was under no pressure to draft a WR now because I had several at my disposal. I also felt safe in waiting to draft Garcia, at least until it was Tm2’s turn to pick. So, my plan was to wait four picks before making any kind of decision, which was right before Tm2’s pick. If, by that time, none of my WRs were drafted, then I would opt to pick up Garcia. This put me in a nice position to get one of the three WRs on the wrap-around because there would only be eight picks left before it was my turn again – a much better situation than taking Garcia now and having to wait 12 picks for one of the WRs to wrap around. Should one or more of the WRs be drafted before it was Tm2’s turn, then I’d have to make a judgment call before Tm2 made its selection. I’d have the same three options: I could take a WR, choose Garcia, or continue to stall. This I needed more time to think about, time I happened to have because I’m utilizing clock management. “Three, two, one, time’s up on Z-Men!,” shouted the draft facilitator. As always, I get a few looks from fellow managers wondering why the heck I just let my time run down. It was now Tm6’s turn to pick, and they took TE Bubba Franks fairly quickly. I was hoping they’d take their time so I had more time to think. The draft coordinator gave me another five seconds to make my pick, which I obviously passed on again. Now almost everyone lifted their heads, and all eyes were definitely on me. For me to pass my pick a second time meant that I was either A) stupid, B) lost, C) unaware, or D) the general manager of the Minnesota Vikings. Little did they know that it was E) none of the above! I knew exactly what I was doing, and all the while I’m sure they thought I was daydreaming or not paying attention or being just a fool. In any case, they probably didn’t want to tell me anything because it was to their advantage if I kept passing on my pick.Tm5 drafted D/ST Miami Dolphins. So far so good; neither any of my WRs nor Garcia had been drafted. I passed on my pick for the third time in a row, and now it became obvious people were staring at me. It was equally obvious that I knew they were staring at me. So, I just flailed my arms straight up in the air to let people think I was insane or something. I am not kidding; this really happened. But I was far from insane. I actually had a plan and it was working. I was “the man with the plan” as the criminals say of Roger “Verbal” Kint in The Usual Suspects. I finally hit a speed bump when Tm4 took Chris Chambers. Doh! Now I had to put my thinking cap on again. If one more of my trio of WRs were drafted, then I would have to probably make an ultimate decision in the next five seconds. After some thought I said to myself that if another WR is taken from my trio, then I’d just go ahead and take the last remaining WR hoping that Garcia would fall to me. I felt that WRs were being drafted so fast at this point of the draft that Garcia had a better chance to survive. After opting not to select for the fourth time, I watched Tm3 then draft RB Lamar Gordon. My plan was still alive, but for how long? Now it was crunch time because Tm2 was picking next, and they still needed a QB. Meaning, now would be the time for me to take Garcia. I instinctively decided that I should stall again. I figured Tm2 is also likely to wait until the ninth round to pick a QB assuming they noticed Tm1 already had a QB. In other words, Tm2 should have known that Tm1 wasn’t likely to take a QB and so there was no need for Tm2 to take a QB now either. And you thought only poker involved this much psychology. Not so in this case! So my newest plan was to keep an eye on my two remaining WRs with the hopes of picking up Garcia right before it was time for Tm2 to pick in the ninth round. If all went well I’d be taking Garcia with a decent chance for at least one of two remaining WRs to fall to me because, at that point, there would be only five picks remaining before it was my turn to pick again. As the draft coordinator gave me my last second to snag Garcia, my brain flinched for a millisecond, and I almost screamed his name. But I held off the urge, and my mouth remained zipped. “Time’s up again for Z-men.” It was Tm2’s turn…judgment day. With fingers crossed, Tm2 drafted. … a QB! $*#! &&&%$## #@%%!! I knew it! I knew I should have taken Garcia when I had the chance! What? What was that? Who did they draft? Steve McNair! Ohhh, thank you football Gods! Thank you, thank you thank you! Not only was Garcia still available, but the entire drafting scenario changed significantly, likely for the better. Now, instead of planning to take Garcia and waiting on a WR, I quickly made myself aware that the best point of action is now to take a WR and wait on Garcia. That’s because every team left to pick before it was my turn had a QB, giving me a good chance of having Garcia fall in my lap. So I went ahead and snagged Joey Galloway who, for some reason in the past couple of minutes, I decided I liked a lot more than Reggie Wayne. So, when the facilitator gave me yet another block of five seconds, I quickly pounced and took Galloway. Ironically, the co-managers of Tm1, Rich and Paula, who I happened to know very well after playing together in the same WCOFF league in 2003, told me they were planning on taking Galloway with that next pick. They felt like I was somehow playing a trick on them by waiting right before they were going to pick him! Well, at least now they know the real motive for my actions. Now it was out of my hands and into those of my opponents – and lady luck – if I was ultimately going to get Garcia. My fingers remained crossed as the few remaining managers picked before it was my turn again. After Rich and Paula took WR Curtis Conway and RB Moe Williams, it was Tm2’s turn to pick on the wrap around. Guess what? They took another QB! Just when I thought it was safe to go back in the water. But once again they were playing scare tactics against me as they didn’t take Garcia but rather Tom Brady. To make this long story, well, less long, my wish came true and Garcia fell to me as teams 3, 4, 5, and 6 took two RBs and two WRs. I achieved my goal! ConclusionThe above strategic maneuvering would not be possible if I wasn’t proactive. When it was my turn to pick in the eighth round of the 2003 WCOFF, I already knew the four players I was interested in drafting. This gave me enough time to think about how I wanted to proceed, and so I was able to creatively find a way to improve my chances of getting Garcia and one of the WRs. These situations show how clock management is very important on draft day. These situations also enabled me to draft the right players and earn a great deal of money, and I am confident that situations like these can earn you a great deal of money as well. Therefore, always remember that as long as you know what you are doing, then it is definitely advantageous to bluff your opponents into thinking you are not paying attention. Moreover, sometimes it is beneficial to skip a pick knowing that your squad will be strengthened in the near future. The key here is to be aware of what your opponents are doing at all times and to be patient. Your decisions might seem risky, but keep in mind that they could pay huge dividends in the future!
Here's an entire posting of what happened as it's now obvious many are being annoyed at my "interval" postings:First option: I could draft one of the WRs now in which case I’d have to simply hope Garcia fell to me in the ninth. However, I was really worried about Tm2 since they were the one team sitting behind me that didn’t have a QB yet. I concluded it was too risky to simply take a WR now and just hope Garcia wrapped around to me. Second Option: I could draft Garcia now and hope at least one of the three WRs falls to me in the ninth. This seemed like a better possibility than the first option because all three WRs would have to be drafted for this plan not to work. However, I noticed a run of WRs being taken – six in a row had just been drafted! If this trend were to continue then I’d no doubt lose out on all three WRs. Consequently, I decided this second option was just as risky an endeavor as the first.At this point you’re probably asking, What other options are there???Third Option: clock management. Of course! I could pass on my turn to wait and see how several of my opponents draft after me before taking any action. I was under no pressure to draft a WR now because I had several at my disposal. I also felt safe in waiting to draft Garcia, at least until it was Tm2’s turn to pick. So, my plan was to wait four picks before making any kind of decision, which was right before Tm2’s pick. If, by that time, none of my WRs were drafted, then I would opt to pick up Garcia. This put me in a nice position to get one of the three WRs on the wrap-around because there would only be eight picks left before it was my turn again – a much better situation than taking Garcia now and having to wait 12 picks for one of the WRs to wrap around. Should one or more of the WRs be drafted before it was Tm2’s turn, then I’d have to make a judgment call before Tm2 made its selection. I’d have the same three options: I could take a WR, choose Garcia, or continue to stall. This I needed more time to think about, time I happened to have because I’m utilizing clock management. “Three, two, one, time’s up on Z-Men!,” shouted the draft facilitator. As always, I get a few looks from fellow managers wondering why the heck I just let my time run down. It was now Tm6’s turn to pick, and they took TE Bubba Franks fairly quickly. I was hoping they’d take their time so I had more time to think. The draft coordinator gave me another five seconds to make my pick, which I obviously passed on again. Now almost everyone lifted their heads, and all eyes were definitely on me. For me to pass my pick a second time meant that I was either A) stupid, B) lost, C) unaware, or D) the general manager of the Minnesota Vikings. Little did they know that it was E) none of the above! I knew exactly what I was doing, and all the while I’m sure they thought I was daydreaming or not paying attention or being just a fool. In any case, they probably didn’t want to tell me anything because it was to their advantage if I kept passing on my pick.Tm5 drafted D/ST Miami Dolphins. So far so good; neither any of my WRs nor Garcia had been drafted. I passed on my pick for the third time in a row, and now it became obvious people were staring at me. It was equally obvious that I knew they were staring at me. So, I just flailed my arms straight up in the air to let people think I was insane or something. I am not kidding; this really happened. But I was far from insane. I actually had a plan and it was working. I was “the man with the plan” as the criminals say of Roger “Verbal” Kint in The Usual Suspects. I finally hit a speed bump when Tm4 took Chris Chambers. Doh! Now I had to put my thinking cap on again. If one more of my trio of WRs were drafted, then I would have to probably make an ultimate decision in the next five seconds. After some thought I said to myself that if another WR is taken from my trio, then I’d just go ahead and take the last remaining WR hoping that Garcia would fall to me. I felt that WRs were being drafted so fast at this point of the draft that Garcia had a better chance to survive. After opting not to select for the fourth time, I watched Tm3 then draft RB Lamar Gordon. My plan was still alive, but for how long? Now it was crunch time because Tm2 was picking next, and they still needed a QB. Meaning, now would be the time for me to take Garcia. I instinctively decided that I should stall again. I figured Tm2 is also likely to wait until the ninth round to pick a QB assuming they noticed Tm1 already had a QB. In other words, Tm2 should have known that Tm1 wasn’t likely to take a QB and so there was no need for Tm2 to take a QB now either. And you thought only poker involved this much psychology. Not so in this case! So my newest plan was to keep an eye on my two remaining WRs with the hopes of picking up Garcia right before it was time for Tm2 to pick in the ninth round. If all went well I’d be taking Garcia with a decent chance for at least one of two remaining WRs to fall to me because, at that point, there would be only five picks remaining before it was my turn to pick again. As the draft coordinator gave me my last second to snag Garcia, my brain flinched for a millisecond, and I almost screamed his name. But I held off the urge, and my mouth remained zipped. “Time’s up again for Z-men.” It was Tm2’s turn…judgment day. With fingers crossed, Tm2 drafted. … a QB! $*#! &&&%$## #@%%!! I knew it! I knew I should have taken Garcia when I had the chance! What? What was that? Who did they draft? Steve McNair! Ohhh, thank you football Gods! Thank you, thank you thank you! Not only was Garcia still available, but the entire drafting scenario changed significantly, likely for the better. Now, instead of planning to take Garcia and waiting on a WR, I quickly made myself aware that the best point of action is now to take a WR and wait on Garcia. That’s because every team left to pick before it was my turn had a QB, giving me a good chance of having Garcia fall in my lap. So I went ahead and snagged Joey Galloway who, for some reason in the past couple of minutes, I decided I liked a lot more than Reggie Wayne. So, when the facilitator gave me yet another block of five seconds, I quickly pounced and took Galloway. Ironically, the co-managers of Tm1, Rich and Paula, who I happened to know very well after playing together in the same WCOFF league in 2003, told me they were planning on taking Galloway with that next pick. They felt like I was somehow playing a trick on them by waiting right before they were going to pick him! Well, at least now they know the real motive for my actions. Now it was out of my hands and into those of my opponents – and lady luck – if I was ultimately going to get Garcia. My fingers remained crossed as the few remaining managers picked before it was my turn again. After Rich and Paula took WR Curtis Conway and RB Moe Williams, it was Tm2’s turn to pick on the wrap around. Guess what? They took another QB! Just when I thought it was safe to go back in the water. But once again they were playing scare tactics against me as they didn’t take Garcia but rather Tom Brady. To make this long story, well, less long, my wish came true and Garcia fell to me as teams 3, 4, 5, and 6 took two RBs and two WRs. I achieved my goal! ConclusionThe above strategic maneuvering would not be possible if I wasn’t proactive. When it was my turn to pick in the eighth round of the 2003 WCOFF, I already knew the four players I was interested in drafting. This gave me enough time to think about how I wanted to proceed, and so I was able to creatively find a way to improve my chances of getting Garcia and one of the WRs. These situations show how clock management is very important on draft day. These situations also enabled me to draft the right players and earn a great deal of money, and I am confident that situations like these can earn you a great deal of money as well. Therefore, always remember that as long as you know what you are doing, then it is definitely advantageous to bluff your opponents into thinking you are not paying attention. Moreover, sometimes it is beneficial to skip a pick knowing that your squad will be strengthened in the near future. The key here is to be aware of what your opponents are doing at all times and to be patient. Your decisions might seem risky, but keep in mind that they could pay huge dividends in the future!
BoltThrower
Footballguy
Tom Brady NEP 16 317 528 3,620 23 12 Steve McNair TEN 14 250 400 3,246 24 7 Jeff Garcia SFO 13 225 392 2,704 18 13 Chris Chambers MIA 16 64 963 11 Reggie Wayne IND 15 68 838 7 Joey Galloway DAL 13 34 672 2 But you picked the worst guy in both cases? 
Z-Men
Footballguy
Hindsight is always 20/20. But that's besides the goal I had which was to get one of the WRs and Garcia. -z-Tom Brady NEP 16 317 528 3,620 23 12
Steve McNair TEN 14 250 400 3,246 24 7
Jeff Garcia SFO 13 225 392 2,704 18 13
Chris Chambers MIA 16 64 963 11
Reggie Wayne IND 15 68 838 7
Joey Galloway DAL 13 34 672 2
But you picked the worst guy in both cases?
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inbreeder
Footballguy
Let me get this straight...You're advocating what you call a successful clock management strategy. This strategy apparently backfires and fails not once, but twice in that the team you were sneakily trying to slip a QB past takes not one, but two, just not the one you want.And, apparently true to form, it takes you all day to get it out on the message board.This is sure to sell books...
BoltThrower
Footballguy
Z-Men
Footballguy
Fellow footballguys are very tough. I'm up for the challenge. My purpose is not to frustrate you or any1 else, but to teach you guys something new. Let me throw a different perspective on things.If any of the four teams behind me takes Garcia then there's no more strategizing. I don't lose either because I get one of my receivers. PICK: WIDE RECEIVER. Suppose the teams directly behind quickly me snag two of my three WRs. Well, then I'd probably take the last remaining WR and hope Garcia falls. PICK: WIDE RECEIVER.What if neither any of the WRs nor Garcia get taken before Team Two picks? In this case I'd take Garcia before Team Two, and I know there's a good chance one of the three WRs will fall to me being that there's only eight more picks before it's my turn again. PICK: JEFF GARCIANow the tricky scenario, the murky gray area, where the group of four teams behind me takes just one of my wide receivers and Garcia remains available. This is exactly what happened! So now I'm back to making a judgment call on whether to take Garcia, a WR, or just pass on my pick again.Bottom line, I'm here to try and teach folks that sometimes by waiting on a pick it opens up doors and opportunities you otherwise wouldn't have. -z-
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radballs.
Footballguy
Still, the counter argument would be why you didn't just take Jeff Garcia during your 8th round pick. What IF Garcia was picked by teams 3 through 6, then you just automatically lost out on one of the players you were targeting because you waited. There is a lot of downside and not a whole lot of upside if any to this strategy.
CalBear
Footballguy
Here's your first error. Your receivers are not identical, and to fail to make a decision between them is to let other people run your draft. Predicting that Chambers, an up and coming young WR who was the undisputed #1 on his team, would outscore Galloway, an aging speedster who was the #2 receiver, and getting thrown to by Quincy Carter, should not have been difficult; by delaying your decision, you got stuck with the lesser player.Similarly, Steve McNair was coming off two straight #7 overall finishes, while Garcia had finished #10 in 2002 and had a new, less passing oriented coach that most observers felt was a downgrade. If you had mentioned at the start of this thread that McNair was available, the response would have been to take the best WR and whichever QB came around to you.
Z-Men
Footballguy
You're assuming I valued Garcia more than the WRs -- in which case I would simply draft him in the 8th like you suggest.To make this clear, I valued Garcia equal to that of each of the three WRs. So, I was going to be happy to get any ONE of them but creatively made it a goal of trying to get BOTH QB and WR. Make sense? -z-
Z-Men
Footballguy
You make arguments that are in a different subject matter all together -- ranking players.What I'm suggesting is an entirely new point of view. ONe that most of you aren't used to. That is: viewing players as having equal value. If you're not comfortable with that then you couldn't, nor should you, utilize the clock managment strategy I'm suggesting. Rather, you should simply take the player who you rank of most value.
-z-
what radballs said. i dont see why you just dont take garcia and then hope one of your 3 wr comes back around. maybe i am dense, but i just dont see how you are controlling this situation by skipping your turn. you have to value garcia a little higher than any one of the 3 wr's because at this point you dont have a qb. guess you had to be there.
radballs.
Footballguy
Not really. Who's to say teams 3 through 6 wouldn't take their QB2 while you are "waiting". Team 2 did with back to back QB picks in the 8th and 9th. Also, considering that you had three at one position and only one at another position that were equally ranked, it's a no brainer there to take the QB, especially since you didn't have one yet. The only reason you got your player in the 9th was because other people in the league didn't have Garcia ranked as high as you did.
Eternal Outlaw
Footballguy
Let me get this straight. You had your choice of 4 equal players (in your mind). Instead of making that choice, you decide to mess around and see who others take. 1 WR gets taken and you before team 2 picks are thinking, take Garcia now but don't. Team 2 takes McNair saving your plan. You now have the choice of 2 wrs and not 3 that you like. Garcia does fall to you. And after all this, you think this makes you look good? 
I actually thought about buying your book because of the fact you did get top 3 two years in a row and I am a huge book fan and like to buy books about things that interest me like FF. After this thread, I will certainly pass. You acted like you had this big plan that worked to perfection but admit you kept going back and forth when and if you should pick Garcia. Before team 2s 8th round pick? 9th? I knew I should have picked him! Good, he didn’t. Your plan never seemed concrete and it just seems you got lucky to get two guys you wanted.
I actually thought about buying your book because of the fact you did get top 3 two years in a row and I am a huge book fan and like to buy books about things that interest me like FF. After this thread, I will certainly pass. You acted like you had this big plan that worked to perfection but admit you kept going back and forth when and if you should pick Garcia. Before team 2s 8th round pick? 9th? I knew I should have picked him! Good, he didn’t. Your plan never seemed concrete and it just seems you got lucky to get two guys you wanted.
fridayfrenzy
Footballguy
He simply got guys that no one else wanted, what strategy!!!
Z-Men
Footballguy
They could have, albeit unlikely, taken a QB and if it so happened to be Garcia then I would take a WR, and the strategizing would end immediately. I wouldnt consider that a loss because, again, I'd be happy to get just either Garcia or one of my WRs in the first place. But I creatively made it my goal to increase my chances, even if the increase is slight, of getting both Garcia and one WR. -z-
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mojorizin
Guest
Z -
I hereby dub your FBG nickname: "COLUMBUS"
It appears as though you've undertaken these grand WCOFF voyages, had the completely wrong idea, ####ed the entire thing up, and still managed to accidentally find America and save your ####.
I like ya, Z. You're a bit flaky but I like that in a fella.
I hereby dub your FBG nickname: "COLUMBUS"
It appears as though you've undertaken these grand WCOFF voyages, had the completely wrong idea, ####ed the entire thing up, and still managed to accidentally find America and save your ####.
I like ya, Z. You're a bit flaky but I like that in a fella.
Eternal Outlaw
Footballguy
Congratulations. From where I stand, your 'creativity' had nothing to do with it. Garcia lasted past team 2 twice and Wayne didn't go to the 10th. What exactly did your 'creativity' accomplish?
Z-Men
Footballguy
Guinness yummy. 
BRILLIANT!
Okay, now that I'm buzzed let's throw a drunken perspective on things: WRONG PICKS.
As you know, I value all four players equally so I'll be happy to get just one of the WRs or Garcia. I do not consider that a loss. But I creatively made it a goal to at least try and get both players. That you also know but since I'm buzzed I'm not only seeing double but writing it twice.
How does waiting improve my chances of accomplishing this goal? Lemme offer you this:
Let's say I take Garcia in the 8th round without waiting. If the next group of teams quickly pounce on my three WRs then obviously I failed my goal, and the better pick would have been to take a WR and hope Garcia fell. GARCIA = WRONG PICK.
Let's say I take a WR in the 8th round without waiting. If the four teams behind me don't take any of my WRs and Team Two takes Garcia then I'd be wishing I had taken Garcia instead. WIDE RECIEVER = WRONG PICK.
So you should see now that waiting does in fact improve my chances because it lets me avoid the "wrong pick" by reevaluating certain potential situations, should they occur.
Making any sense yet my friends? -z-
BRILLIANT!Okay, now that I'm buzzed let's throw a drunken perspective on things: WRONG PICKS.
As you know, I value all four players equally so I'll be happy to get just one of the WRs or Garcia. I do not consider that a loss. But I creatively made it a goal to at least try and get both players. That you also know but since I'm buzzed I'm not only seeing double but writing it twice.
How does waiting improve my chances of accomplishing this goal? Lemme offer you this:
Let's say I take Garcia in the 8th round without waiting. If the next group of teams quickly pounce on my three WRs then obviously I failed my goal, and the better pick would have been to take a WR and hope Garcia fell. GARCIA = WRONG PICK.
Let's say I take a WR in the 8th round without waiting. If the four teams behind me don't take any of my WRs and Team Two takes Garcia then I'd be wishing I had taken Garcia instead. WIDE RECIEVER = WRONG PICK.
So you should see now that waiting does in fact improve my chances because it lets me avoid the "wrong pick" by reevaluating certain potential situations, should they occur.
Making any sense yet my friends? -z-
David Dodds
Administrator
The Minnesota Vikings do this yearly at the NFL Draft, but not sure their fans have ever thought it was very smart.I hear Rob's logic, but I also don't think it is that sound of a strategy. Any time you give away a draft spot you potentially lose out on the guy you wanted. That risk is much less in the middle of the draft, but still possible.He was guaranteed Garcia by drafting him. The second he waited, he could have lost Garcia. Let's say the next person takes Garcia so Rob then takes a WR from his list. And let's also suppose the rest of the owners make a run on QBs. Now he faces a lot of players he does not like at all at the position.Using a tool like the Draft Dominator makes analyzing these situations a lot easier and possible within the time limits between picks. I don't see me ever employing a strategy where I purposely forfeit my pick. I would prefer to have the correct tool so that I always can analyze things completely and make the correct pick in time.A tool like the Draft Dominator will show you the position each drafter after you should take. It's probability theory at it's best. Sure you can be 100% sure what they will do by waiting, but you risk losing the player you need. The real question in this puzzle was how strongly Rob wanted Garcia and what risk was there if he missed him and got another player. So essentially the questions were:1. What is the probability of Garcia being available in round 9?2. If he is gone, how much will that hurt?3. What is the probability one of my three WRs will be available in the 9th?4. If they are all gone, how much will that hurt.Sounds like the perfect question for the Draft Dominator without sacrificing any draft spots in my opinion.
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Eternal Outlaw
Footballguy
There is great strategy and there is out thinking yourself. This is the out thinking yourself. By your own admission, you almost fired out Garcia but held your tongue. This is not a strategy, this is indecision. So you couldn't decide who to pick. Big deal, that isn't a great strategy.Guinness yummy.
Okay, now that I'm buzzed let's throw a drunken perspective on things: WRONG PICKS.
As you know, I value all four players equally so I'll be happy to get just one of the WRs or Garcia. I do not consider that a loss. But I creatively made it a goal to at least try and get both players. That you also know but since I'm buzzed I'm not only seeing double but writing it twice.
How does waiting improve my chances of accomplishing this goal? Lemme offer you this:
Let's say I take Garcia in the 8th round without waiting. If the next group of teams quickly pounce on my three WRs then obviously I failed my goal, and the better pick would have been to take a WR and hope Garcia fell. GARCIA = WRONG PICK.
Let's say I take a WR in the 8th round without waiting. If the four teams behind me don't take any of my WRs and Team Two takes Garcia then I'd be wishing I had taken Garcia instead. WIDE RECIEVER = WRONG PICK.
So you should see now that waiting does in fact improve my chances because it lets me avoid the "wrong pick" by reevaluating certain potential situations, should they occur.
Making any sense yet my friends? -z-
Eternal Outlaw
Footballguy
*cough* indecision *cough* not strategy *cough*Sorry, I will stop my heckling and go to sleep now. I just want to know how his indecision = good strategy.
Team Legacy
Footballguy
wow.. i just started reading the boards and i'm amazed by some of the names that aren't seeing exactly the "small treasure" that he sees. i'm not saying its the greatest thing since sliced bread, but its just seeing success in achievingoption 1 or 2 versus being stuck with option 3. (neither)its okay.
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CalBear
Footballguy
Ponder this: you could have just taken Garcia, and you haven't offered even a line of reasoning, let alone any evidence, that you taking Garcia would have made it less likely that one of the WRs would fall to you in the next round. Why would it make any difference at all whether you passed your pick or chose Garcia? Did the guy picking after you think "gee, I was going to take Joey Galloway, but now that this doofus passed, I'd better grab Ron Dayne instead"? Your line of reasoning makes no sense at all.Probably in the end, the likelihood that you get two of those four players is equivalent whether or not you pass your pick, since the same number of picks will happen before your second choice. But the likelihood that you get Garcia and one of the WRs is maximized only by taking Garcia at your pick. It's certainly not maximized by waiting until after someone who needs a QB gets to pick. You gave yourself a number of ways to screw it up.
(The method you actually chose of screwing it up was picking the weakest WR and a questionable QB).
David Dodds
Administrator
How much extra value do you think you can get by missing your picks each round? Shouldn't this be your constant attack plan then?Does one maximize this value by skipping just 1 spot or 3 to 4 picks?I'm sorry Rob your logic is flawwed. 4 players aren't the same value. Whether you use AVT or your own projections, they have different value (if only slightly).The goal is to be able to analyze what you need, who drafts between your picks that might prevent you from getting what you want, and then executing these picks. Like I stated before, this is something the Draft Dominator can do very well.I could make the argument that says if you would have taken Garcia here, you might have started another QB run. This would ensure that you would get the WRs you wanted. By waiting, the other OWNERS forced your hand and you also took WR following their run. You were then lucky to secure a QB when the person needing one had two picks before you got back in. You basically got Garcia because the QBs he liked were different (as he took 2 QBs).I know you are convinced your strategy was brilliant. Good for you. I doubt I would ever recommend that someone purposely skip their pick. Even in the example you gave it looks like a bad play to me.You showed indecision and then allowed other owners to force your hand. This would be like checking in poker instead of leading out with a bet with the best hand. It could work. It could also backfire big.Every draft slot has a value. Every time you purposely do not pick when it is your turn, you are giving up some value that you could have achieved. In some situations, you give up no value because people were taking people not in your sights. In those instances you would then gain a little more knowledge by waiting. But like I have said before, I generally have a great idea on WHO people are going to draft because the Draft Dominator shows me these things (their relative strengths by position, ADPs of upcoming players, etc). So to me it's worth a lot more value to select on time.
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