Time Limit Per Pick (1 Viewer)

[Team Legacy]

dave, i like projections, but they're just projections. don't steve smith and anquan boldin have about the same projection? i might like one over the other,but what if i have boldin a bit higher in projection but have a common bye week, doesn't that even it out a bit? i know in DYNASTY leagues especially, i'm splitting hairs. i'm not forecasting out career fantasy points bro, i'm just going with my gut with 2 very ALIKE players.

 

[David Dodds]

Team - That is just it.Let's say 3 WRs are close in numbers.Shouldn't you then look deeper?- What player best compliments my current team (meshes with bye weeks, tough strength of schedule weeks, etc)?- What weeks am I expecting to be going against the better opponents? Which one of these guys will help me then to secure necessary wins?- How strong is my team already? is it good enough to already compete? If yes, which of these players would best hep me in the playoffs, etc?This is why I say no 4 players are equal. What I am hearing is low level of analysis (which happens sometimes with pen and paper and not a lot of time between picks).What I am advocating is drafting smarter. And when you do that, you are more likely to reduce these situations from 4 like players to a tough decision between two players. You then simulate what is most likely with the hopes to secure both players to achieve your goal.

 

[Kleck.]

Team - That is just it.

Let's say 3 WRs are close in numbers.

Shouldn't you then look deeper?

- What player best compliments my current team (meshes with bye weeks, tough strength of schedule weeks, etc)?

- What weeks am I expecting to be going against the better opponents? Which one of these guys will help me then to secure necessary wins?

- How strong is my team already? is it good enough to already compete? If yes, which of these players would best hep me in the playoffs, etc?

This is why I say no 4 players are equal. What I am hearing is low level of analysis (which happens sometimes with pen and paper and not a lot of time between picks).

What I am advocating is drafting smarter. And when you do that, you are more likely to reduce these situations from 4 like players to a tough decision between two players. You then simulate what is most likely with the hopes to secure both players to achieve your goal.

 

[Team Legacy]

i still have found times where drafting 2 at a time beats the ability to draft 1 at a time. usually it happens closer to the turn than this, but its still a possibility.

 

[nag']

There ar 2 separate criticisms of this stragegy. One is the valuation of players. Z had already drafted 4 RB and 3WRs, so to have 3 would-be fourth string WR valued "even" with one single starting QB (Garcia) in the 8th round is inherently wrong. I can see having ONE wr "even" with a quarterback, but THREE? When you haven't drafted a starting QB yet? No.Second is not realizing that the ONLY reason this "strategy" worked is because Team 2 did not draft Garcia with the TWO chances he had. And none of the other teams did either, which could've easily happened as well. There may be an example where passing on a pick can be advantageous (although I haven't thought of it), but THIS is definitely not one of them. Z got 2 of the 4 players he wanted, but he got lucky in doing so and he had absolutely no control over it.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Every draft slot has a value.

The only exception is if the guy drafting after you is so bad at evaluating talent that the players he avoids tend to outperform the players he likes.In that case, if you can't decide between Garcia and McNair, you should just let him pick the guy he wants, and you take the other one.

 

[Z-Men]

I'm sorry Rob your logic is flawwed. 4 players aren't the same value. Whether you use AVT or your own projections, they have different value (if only slightly).

I don't blame you for your opinion David. Consider it my fault, as I should of clarified that I'm no longer using VBD, AVT, or any system that puts exact values on players at this point of the draft. I begin using other strategies for selecting players because -- as I first learned from you and Joe -- X values become less important as the draft moves in the middle and latter rounds.So, eventually I use other systems I've created. The particular system that suggested I draft any of the players like Wayne, Chambers, and Galloway is what I call the Stockpile Theory. Looking at things now I realize Clock Management has an indirect prerequisite system called Stockpile Theory.

I guess, now looking at the fury of confusion I created and all the punches I'm taking let's not open up another can of worms. So that's it for the Z man. -z-

 

[radballs.]

There ar 2 separate criticisms of this stragegy.

One is the valuation of players. Z had already drafted 4 RB and 3WRs, so to have 3 would-be fourth string WR valued "even" with one single starting QB (Garcia) in the 8th round is inherently wrong. I can see having ONE wr "even" with a quarterback, but THREE? When you haven't drafted a starting QB yet? No.

Second is not realizing that the ONLY reason this "strategy" worked is because Team 2 did not draft Garcia with the TWO chances he had. And none of the other teams did either, which could've easily happened as well.

There may be an example where passing on a pick can be advantageous (although I haven't thought of it), but THIS is definitely not one of them. Z got 2 of the 4 players he wanted, but he got lucky in doing so and he had absolutely no control over it.

The only time I can even remotely imagine this having a positive effect on your team is if you are directly next to the guy on the turn (either drafting from the 2nd or 11th spot in a 12 team league). This cannot work when you are drafting right in the middle of the draft order each round. Even then, you have to be in a league that has a rule for when you time out that is similar to the WCOFF's to make it work.

 

[Z-Men]

Okay, I lied. I'm not finished. I hope no one thinks I'm claiming that my system GUARANTEES I'll get Garcia and a WR. Not at all. I'm simply saying I took a route that maximized my chances of accomplishing this goal -- even if that meant by just a few percentage points.Sure, any team behind me ccould of taken Garcia and then my goal would have failed. At that point I take one of the WRs and I'm done with it. That's fine with me because I value the WRs just as much as Garcia (I know some of you have a problem with me valuing players equally, accept it, that's how I play fantasy football in the middle-to-late rounds once I'm no longer utilizing VBD/AVT.).Nothing is guaranteed. I'm not making any claims to a guaranteed strategy. Calculated risks my friends. Calculated risks and educated guess is all I can do. I can't control who my opponents actually pick. But I can wait a few picks before deciding whether or not to take a WR or RB as I previously proved helps increase the chances of accomplishing my goal -- even if it's the slightest most miniscule increase in odds. -z-

 

[puqrag]

ok, i guess i see your strategy. you have 4 players that you value equally, and your goal is to grab 2 of them. you did it. but the reality is you became indecisive and just lucked out. if you had drafted when you should have, you could have taken chambers or wayne, your friends would have taken galloway and garcia would have still fell to you in the 9th (unless i missed the part where your strategy caused garcia to fall). if you took garcia, then you would have missed out on all 3 wr, goal not accomplished, so good call i suppose. but team2 did take 2 qbs. and they could have taken these 2 qbs whether or not you pulled your strategic move. the only reason you were able to accomplish your goal is because team2 took 2 qb's that were not garcia. there is no brilliance behind this, so please just call it what it is. luck.

 

[BoltThrower]

The particular system that suggested I draft any of the players like Wayne, Chambers, and Galloway is what I call the Stockpile Theory. Looking at things now I realize Clock Management has an indirect prerequisite system called Stockpile Theory.

Don't forget the other prerequisite theories to Clock Management - Indecision Theory and Badrankings Theory

 

[Pickle Rody]

When we start our draft we already have five keepers on our team. We then draft 13 rounds to get to a full roster. There is a 2 minute time limit the first two rounds. After that we have 1 minute each round. We are very lenient about the time limit. Most guys know what they want in the first two rounds and I don't usually have to give any time limit warnings. If after the time has expired they still have not made a pick the rest of the guys start hootin' and hollarin' for them to pick already. I have never taken a pick from anybody, nor have I skipped anybody. We just force them to finally pick. The whole day is a party and for the most part the reason for being in the league is to have FUN!I have signed up for the NFFC in NY this year and will be under those strict time limit standards for the first time ever. I will not let the time get anywhere near the end. I will use DD and will use it wisely. I don't know if I'm good enough to compete with these other players out there in a high stakes contest, but that is what I want to find out.

 

[Team Legacy]

When we start our draft we already have five keepers on our team. We then draft 13 rounds to get to a full roster. There is a 2 minute time limit the first two rounds. After that we have 1 minute each round. We are very lenient about the time limit. Most guys know what they want in the first two rounds and I don't usually have to give any time limit warnings. If after the time has expired they still have not made a pick the rest of the guys start hootin' and hollarin' for them to pick already. I have never taken a pick from anybody, nor have I skipped anybody. We just force them to finally pick. The whole day is a party and for the most part the reason for being in the league is to have FUN!

I have signed up for the NFFC in NY this year and will be under those strict time limit standards for the first time ever. I will not let the time get anywhere near the end. I will use DD and will use it wisely. I don't know if I'm good enough to compete with these other players out there in a high stakes contest, but that is what I want to find out.

if you can't spot the sucker your first "4 rounds" at the table....

 

[mojorizin]

All goofing on your lunacy aside Z, I do understand what you were doing. It just appears to me to be strategizing for the sake of well, strategizing. Not that we aren't capable of draft-day multi-tasking here, but I worry that spending such an inordinate amount of time (basically 2 whole rounds) focusing on this one tree leads us to miss the entire bloody forest. Draftday shenanigans may sound neat and keep you up pacing all night marveling at your master plan, but all the doodads and gewgaws in the world didn't pull this one out. The mistake here wasn't the strategy itself, although the entire exercise led to an outcome that had no bearing on the overall result. In fact, it may have actually hurt you simply due to the poor ranking of the players involved - the best thing that could have happened was you getting NONE of those players (how many times is the pick we dont make... the best one?). You wanna sell me a book, figure out why you had players ranked higher than they should have been, look at why you completely missed on all of them, and figure out how to rectify that in the future.

 

[CommuterMan]

The first thing that must be said is "Know the draft rules of your league!!!" For Z-Men his "tactics" worked out for him because he could still draft at any time later in the round. Some have posted that in their leagues - a missed draft pick automatically puts you at the end of the round - so if you miss your pick you have no control to jump-in at any spot to snare the guy you wanted.... The second thing that I would be asking is what QB did Z-Men have on his list after Garcia - regardless of how other feel about Garcia as a pick... the bigger question in my mind at that point in the draft would be, if I lose out on drafting Garcia in round 8 who is the next QB that I have on my list and how do I compare those two QBs. I may view the 3 WRs and Garcia as equal but if the next QB I have on my list is down the list another 5-10 players then this is the trade-off that should be considered.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Now almost everyone lifted their heads, and all eyes were definitely on me. For me to pass my pick a second time meant that I was either A) stupid, B) lost, C) unaware, or D) the general manager of the Minnesota Vikings. Little did they know that it was E) none of the above! I knew exactly what I was doing, and all the while I’m sure they thought I was daydreaming or not paying attention or being just a fool. In any case, they probably didn’t want to tell me anything because it was to their advantage if I kept passing on my pick.

I remember this. I actually walked up to say bye to Z at the time this was occuring and immediately thought C. Dude was just sitting there like it was no big deal.

 

[Eternal Outlaw]

ok, i guess i see your strategy. you have 4 players that you value equally, and your goal is to grab 2 of them. you did it. but the reality is you became indecisive and just lucked out. if you had drafted when you should have, you could have taken chambers or wayne, your friends would have taken galloway and garcia would have still fell to you in the 9th (unless i missed the part where your strategy caused garcia to fall). if you took garcia, then you would have missed out on all 3 wr, goal not accomplished, so good call i suppose. but team2 did take 2 qbs. and they could have taken these 2 qbs whether or not you pulled your strategic move. the only reason you were able to accomplish your goal is because team2 took 2 qb's that were not garcia. there is no brilliance behind this, so please just call it what it is. luck.

Wayne lasted til the 10th round so he could have drafted Garcia and still got 1 of his 3 wr.

 

[Capella]

if this idiot really did well at the wcoff, I'm starting to like :11:'s chances more and more.we'll just pick up free agents at the end of the draft. that'll really #### everybody up.

 

[umop apisdn]

I'm surprised nobody mentioned this yet...Arthouse, the "publisher" of your "book" is a self publishing house which amounts to little more than a vanity publisher. According to their site, ANYONE can get ANY BOOK published with them, "Every author has a voice-let yours be heard!"I wouldn't claim that you are an author based on the fact that you got your book published by them and your "coming soon to Amazon.com and Barnes & Noble" line is a joke. Neither company has a SINGLE "book" published by ArtHouse (other then through affiliates, i.e. not directly through EITHER company) in it's catalog.Now I am not going to claim to have won the WCOFF or anything like that, nor am I going to claim that I am the hot ##### when it comes to dreaming up new theories like "clock (mis)management". Congratulations on your accomplishments, but that doesn't give you the right (permission, justification) to come to many of the most respected sites about a topic to shill your "book" by starting long tedious threads and attempting to be vague and mysterious.You've started a thread which amounts to little more then an advertisement for your "book", given us "insight" to a "strategy" which nobody other then you would call anything except dumb luck (2QB's were taken, you didn't CAUSE Garcia to fall, you lucked out) and p*ssed off most of the forum regulars. Good job.--edited because: clarity++

 

[B-Deep]

This entire thread has been a waste. Not only would I never consider buying Z's book (the obvious reason for this post) but I'll never read a string he originates again.



I remember in 2004, I couldn't decide if I wanted Eddie George #1 overall or Ron Dayne! Knowing I had 2 Giants fans and a Cowboys fan drafting after me I was unsure what to do. So I went upstairs and watched an episode of the Teletubies while the rest of the league conducted the first and second rounds of the draft. When someone called up that my second round pick was on the clock I swooped in and got Dayne AND George!! Please buy my book - Overly Complex Strategies for Drafting Crappy Players! (OCSDCP for short!)



Thanks to DD for trying to bring some logic to this wasteland of a thread.

 

[JohnnyU]

How much extra value do you think you can get by missing your picks each round? Shouldn't this be your constant attack plan then?

Does one maximize this value by skipping just 1 spot or 3 to 4 picks?

I'm sorry Rob your logic is flawwed. 4 players aren't the same value. Whether you use AVT or your own projections, they have different value (if only slightly).

The goal is to be able to analyze what you need, who drafts between your picks that might prevent you from getting what you want, and then executing these picks. Like I stated before, this is something the Draft Dominator can do very well.

I could make the argument that says if you would have taken Garcia here, you might have started another QB run. This would ensure that you would get the WRs you wanted. By waiting, the other OWNERS forced your hand and you also took WR following their run. You were then lucky to secure a QB when the person needing one had two picks before you got back in. You basically got Garcia because the QBs he liked were different (as he took 2 QBs).

I know you are convinced your strategy was brilliant. Good for you. I doubt I would ever recommend that someone purposely skip their pick. Even in the example you gave it looks like a bad play to me.

You showed indecision and then allowed other owners to force your hand. This would be like checking in poker instead of leading out with a bet with the best hand. It could work. It could also backfire big.

Every draft slot has a value. Every time you purposely do not pick when it is your turn, you are giving up some value that you could have achieved. In some situations, you give up no value because people were taking people not in your sights. In those instances you would then gain a little more knowledge by waiting. But like I have said before, I generally have a great idea on WHO people are going to draft because the Draft Dominator shows me these things (their relative strengths by position, ADPs of upcoming players, etc). So to me it's worth a lot more value to select on time.

VERY!!!

 

[Kiko13]

Z-men, I might be one of the few that knows what you're talking about. Would I do it? Extremely unlikely. The strategy is beyond unorthodox and the situation is likely rare, but it worked out for you. It may have worked out anyways, but probably only if you took a WR in the 8th round.The problem with everyone's complaints is that people are saying well Garcia wasn't the right QB or you took the wrong WR or people think you would have gotten screwed out of all 4 players. I would explain it this way:Suppose you are deciding between 4 players. Call them ALL player "A" since you consider them all equal. If you draft without passing on picks you get player "A" with your pick. If you wait, you'll still get player "A," but there's a chance you'll get player "A" twice. There was no chance you'd miss out on all 4 players since if 3 of them were taken you obviously aren't going to pass on your pick AGAIN. You still get player "A" and you're strategy didn't work, but it doesn't hurt you since you get a player you would have picked had you not waited.Not sure how to respond about you being indecisive though. It's hard to say that all 4 players are indeed all exactly equal. I would say, if you're the 1st pick in the draft last year and you couldn't decide between Tomlinson or Holmes, do you pass to Team 2 and take whichever one they don't take? It's almost like saying to the guy next to you, "um, would you mind making my pick for me?"As I said, I DO in fact understand the strategy, but I can see people's doubts. People do need to keep in mind there are differences between draft strategy and player projections/rankings so that shouldn't enter their arguments.Thanks for the entertaining thread! Despite agreeing with you in a sense, I thought there were some hilarious rips on you. I was laughing through the whole thing.

 

[CalBear]

Z-men, I might be one of the few that knows what you're talking about.

Here's a surprise: an alias created 15 minutes before this post knows what Z is talking about!

 

[nag']

...because I value the WRs just as much as Garcia (I know some of you have a problem with me valuing players equally, accept it, that's how I play fantasy football in the middle-to-late rounds once I'm no longer utilizing VBD/AVT.).

I have no problem accepting it, but it still doesn't make it right. As a matter of fact, it seems this valuation process is what initially gave birth to your "skip-a-pick" strategy and gave the illusion of it making sense to YOU. This is why you are having trouble (to put it mildly) with others seeing it's usefulness.

 

[WhoDat]

It is not what you say but how you say it. Theories aside I strongly suggest you work on your interpersonal and presentation skills. Any ounce of credibility you had or were attempting to establish was destroyed the minute you began your shameless self promoting. Your posts and perceived attitude have an intolerable level of arrogance associated with them that manage to gag and silence any maxim you are attempting to describe, define or defend. Your assumptive position that your ideas are somehow beyond the grasp of everyone present is offensive and completely incorrect. As a self admitted information junkie, I had planned on tracking down a copy of the book. There is no such thing as too much information. In fact I had actually looked forward to reading it. Perhaps, after 18 years of playing on my own, I could have learned a new trick. However, after catching a glimpse of your act, there is no way I buy it. Demographics on the industry clearly prove that the majority of those people playing fantasy sports have at least one advanced degree and a high level of net and disposable income. A casual glance of most of the threads proves that point. Most of the people that participate here are well written and articulate. Over time it is easy to determine most of the active board members are educated and work in a professional field. Your cavalier attitude has superseded any alleged good intent you might have had. You have managed to alienate and underestimate your core audience. It is proven that for every 1 great experience a person has with a product or service they will only tell 2 other people. Conversely, that same person, when confronted with a bad or poor experience with a product or service, will tell 8 people. Keep that in mind in the future. The theory presented? I understand but disagree. As was stated by D. Dodds, your hand could be forced and this move could explode on you. I find it too passive on the front-end and reactionary on the back-end.

 

[-OZ-]

Your assumptive position that your ideas are somehow beyond the grasp of everyone present is offensive and completely incorrect. As a self admitted information junkie, I had planned on tracking down a copy of the book. There is no such thing as too much information. In fact I had actually looked forward to reading it. Perhaps, after 18 years of playing on my own, I could have learned a new trick. However, after catching a glimpse of your act, there is no way I buy it.

Demographics on the industry clearly prove that the majority of those people playing fantasy sports have at least one advanced degree and a high level of net and disposable income. A casual glance of most of the threads proves that point. Most of the people that participate here are well written and articulate. Over time it is easy to determine most of the active board members are educated and work in a professional field. Your cavalier attitude has superseded any alleged good intent you might have had. You have managed to alienate and underestimate your core audience.

Are you calling us "geeks"?

 

[WhoDat]

Are you calling us "geeks"?

Never. Well informed, educated, financially responsible, closet nerd, maybe but never geek. Perhaps, dork in denial would fit too but never geek. Anything but geek, as it is far too harsh. Plus, all board members run the proverbial 4.4; bench 400; can dunk; party; have the highest social skills and kill the ladies. That is far from being geek-like. C'mom.

 

[B-Deep]

It is not what you say but how you say it. Theories aside I strongly suggest you work on your interpersonal and presentation skills. Any ounce of credibility you had or were attempting to establish was destroyed the minute you began your shameless self promoting. Your posts and perceived attitude have an intolerable level of arrogance associated with them that manage to gag and silence any maxim you are attempting to describe, define or defend.

Your assumptive position that your ideas are somehow beyond the grasp of everyone present is offensive and completely incorrect. As a self admitted information junkie, I had planned on tracking down a copy of the book. There is no such thing as too much information. In fact I had actually looked forward to reading it. Perhaps, after 18 years of playing on my own, I could have learned a new trick. However, after catching a glimpse of your act, there is no way I buy it.

Demographics on the industry clearly prove that the majority of those people playing fantasy sports have at least one advanced degree and a high level of net and disposable income. A casual glance of most of the threads proves that point. Most of the people that participate here are well written and articulate. Over time it is easy to determine most of the active board members are educated and work in a professional field. Your cavalier attitude has superseded any alleged good intent you might have had. You have managed to alienate and underestimate your core audience.

It is proven that for every 1 great experience a person has with a product or service they will only tell 2 other people. Conversely, that same person, when confronted with a bad or poor experience with a product or service, will tell 8 people. Keep that in mind in the future.

The theory presented?

I understand but disagree. As was stated by D. Dodds, your hand could be forced and this move could explode on you. I find it too passive on the front-end and reactionary on the back-end.

VERY

 

[wannabee]

It is not what you say but how you say it.  Theories aside I strongly suggest you work on your interpersonal and presentation skills.  Any ounce of credibility you had or were attempting to establish was destroyed the minute you began your shameless self promoting.  Your posts and perceived attitude have an intolerable level of arrogance associated with them that manage to gag and silence any maxim you are attempting to describe, define or defend. 

Your assumptive position that your ideas are somehow beyond the grasp of everyone present is offensive and completely incorrect.  As a self admitted information junkie, I had planned on tracking down a copy of the book.  There is no such thing as too much information.  In fact I had actually looked forward to reading it.  Perhaps, after 18 years of playing on my own, I could have learned a new trick.  However, after catching a glimpse of your act, there is no way I buy it.

Demographics on the industry clearly prove that the majority of those people playing fantasy sports have at least one advanced degree and a high level of net and disposable income.  A casual glance of most of the threads proves that point.  Most of the people that participate here are well written and articulate.  Over time it is easy to determine most of the active board members are educated and work in a professional field.  Your cavalier attitude has superseded any alleged good intent you might have had.  You have managed to alienate and underestimate your core audience.     

It is proven that for every 1 great experience a person has with a product or service they will only tell 2 other people.  Conversely, that same person, when confronted with a bad or poor experience with a product or service, will tell 8 people.  Keep that in mind in the future. 

The theory presented? 

I understand but disagree.  As was stated by D. Dodds, your hand could be forced and this move could explode on you.  I find it too passive on the front-end and reactionary on the back-end.

VERY

Who said that college football players are dumb? Another well-thought, well articulated post. Don't tell OZ (the original wizz...) where you went to school. A rivalry might brew.

 

[-OZ-]

It is not what you say but how you say it.  Theories aside I strongly suggest you work on your interpersonal and presentation skills.  Any ounce of credibility you had or were attempting to establish was destroyed the minute you began your shameless self promoting.  Your posts and perceived attitude have an intolerable level of arrogance associated with them that manage to gag and silence any maxim you are attempting to describe, define or defend. 

Your assumptive position that your ideas are somehow beyond the grasp of everyone present is offensive and completely incorrect.  As a self admitted information junkie, I had planned on tracking down a copy of the book.  There is no such thing as too much information.  In fact I had actually looked forward to reading it.  Perhaps, after 18 years of playing on my own, I could have learned a new trick.  However, after catching a glimpse of your act, there is no way I buy it.

Demographics on the industry clearly prove that the majority of those people playing fantasy sports have at least one advanced degree and a high level of net and disposable income.  A casual glance of most of the threads proves that point.  Most of the people that participate here are well written and articulate.  Over time it is easy to determine most of the active board members are educated and work in a professional field.  Your cavalier attitude has superseded any alleged good intent you might have had.  You have managed to alienate and underestimate your core audience.      

It is proven that for every 1 great experience a person has with a product or service they will only tell 2 other people.  Conversely, that same person, when confronted with a bad or poor experience with a product or service, will tell 8 people.  Keep that in mind in the future. 

The theory presented? 

I understand but disagree.  As was stated by D. Dodds, your hand could be forced and this move could explode on you.  I find it too passive on the front-end and reactionary on the back-end.

VERY

Who said that college football players are dumb? Another well-thought, well articulated post. Don't tell OZ (the original wizz...) where you went to school. A rivalry might brew.

Please do.

 

[JohnnyU]

It is not what you say but how you say it. Theories aside I strongly suggest you work on your interpersonal and presentation skills. Any ounce of credibility you had or were attempting to establish was destroyed the minute you began your shameless self promoting. Your posts and perceived attitude have an intolerable level of arrogance associated with them that manage to gag and silence any maxim you are attempting to describe, define or defend.

Your assumptive position that your ideas are somehow beyond the grasp of everyone present is offensive and completely incorrect. As a self admitted information junkie, I had planned on tracking down a copy of the book. There is no such thing as too much information. In fact I had actually looked forward to reading it. Perhaps, after 18 years of playing on my own, I could have learned a new trick. However, after catching a glimpse of your act, there is no way I buy it.

Demographics on the industry clearly prove that the majority of those people playing fantasy sports have at least one advanced degree and a high level of net and disposable income. A casual glance of most of the threads proves that point. Most of the people that participate here are well written and articulate. Over time it is easy to determine most of the active board members are educated and work in a professional field. Your cavalier attitude has superseded any alleged good intent you might have had. You have managed to alienate and underestimate your core audience.

It is proven that for every 1 great experience a person has with a product or service they will only tell 2 other people. Conversely, that same person, when confronted with a bad or poor experience with a product or service, will tell 8 people. Keep that in mind in the future.

The theory presented?

I understand but disagree. As was stated by D. Dodds, your hand could be forced and this move could explode on you. I find it too passive on the front-end and reactionary on the back-end.

My God that was well said !!!!

 

[dirtyhalos]

I hope every1 of you are happy!!!

 

[Capella]

well, looks like another one cracked. way to go, bagger. :IBTL:

 

[CalBear]

That's enough, I can't take the bashing anymore. It's like many of you have a vendetta against me. None of you know me personally and I was only here to get across an entirely new way of thinking.

I really appreciated some of the constructive criticism. But now it seems that most people are using this forum to go out of their way to hurt me. Whether you guys believe it or not, some of this stuff is getting to me. I can't take the personal hits anymore. --Robert Zarzycki

Maybe you should create some more aliases so more posters will be telling you how good you are.

 

[jurb26]

Somebody just offer the guy an invite to an all FBG league and we can see how good he really is. Or Z, try your hand at the survivor contest. This mind numbing banter is getting old.

 

[Sidewinder]

... and I was only here to get across an entirely new way of thinking.

...

Sure you were

 

[Jim Otto]

The Minnesota Vikings do this yearly at the NFL Draft, but not sure their fans have ever thought it was very smart.

I hear Rob's logic, but I also don't think it is that sound of a strategy. Any time you give away a draft spot you potentially lose out on the guy you wanted. That risk is much less in the middle of the draft, but still possible.

He was guaranteed Garcia by drafting him. The second he waited, he could have lost Garcia. Let's say the next person takes Garcia so Rob then takes a WR from his list. And let's also suppose the rest of the owners make a run on QBs. Now he faces a lot of players he does not like at all at the position.

Using a tool like the Draft Dominator makes analyzing these situations a lot easier and possible within the time limits between picks. I don't see me ever employing a strategy where I purposely forfeit my pick. I would prefer to have the correct tool so that I always can analyze things completely and make the correct pick in time.

A tool like the Draft Dominator will show you the position each drafter after you should take. It's probability theory at it's best. Sure you can be 100% sure what they will do by waiting, but you risk losing the player you need. The real question in this puzzle was how strongly Rob wanted Garcia and what risk was there if he missed him and got another player.

So essentially the questions were:

1. What is the probability of Garcia being available in round 9?

2. If he is gone, how much will that hurt?

3. What is the probability one of my three WRs will be available in the 9th?

4. If they are all gone, how much will that hurt.

Sounds like the perfect question for the Draft Dominator without sacrificing any draft spots in my opinion.

How much extra value do you think you can get by missing your picks each round? Shouldn't this be your constant attack plan then?

Does one maximize this value by skipping just 1 spot or 3 to 4 picks?

I'm sorry Rob your logic is flawwed. 4 players aren't the same value. Whether you use AVT or your own projections, they have different value (if only slightly).

The goal is to be able to analyze what you need, who drafts between your picks that might prevent you from getting what you want, and then executing these picks. Like I stated before, this is something the Draft Dominator can do very well.

I could make the argument that says if you would have taken Garcia here, you might have started another QB run. This would ensure that you would get the WRs you wanted. By waiting, the other OWNERS forced your hand and you also took WR following their run. You were then lucky to secure a QB when the person needing one had two picks before you got back in. You basically got Garcia because the QBs he liked were different (as he took 2 QBs).

I know you are convinced your strategy was brilliant. Good for you. I doubt I would ever recommend that someone purposely skip their pick. Even in the example you gave it looks like a bad play to me.

You showed indecision and then allowed other owners to force your hand. This would be like checking in poker instead of leading out with a bet with the best hand. It could work. It could also backfire big.

Every draft slot has a value. Every time you purposely do not pick when it is your turn, you are giving up some value that you could have achieved. In some situations, you give up no value because people were taking people not in your sights. In those instances you would then gain a little more knowledge by waiting. But like I have said before, I generally have a great idea on WHO people are going to draft because the Draft Dominator shows me these things (their relative strengths by position, ADPs of upcoming players, etc). So to me it's worth a lot more value to select on time.

I David Dodds!:manlove:

 

[Z-Men]

It's really bugging me out on how people aren't getting my strategy. It's not your fault but mine. I'm trying to figure out why I'm confusing you guys. I think I found it. A complete ERROR ON MY PART regarding my initial description of the situation.

Let me cover my tracks just a bit. I gave completely the wrong impression.

I DID NOT view all four players of equal value.

When it was my turn in the 8th round I wanted to take one of the three WRs over Garcia (via another theory of mine called stockpile theory). I DID NOT view Garcia as valuable as the WRS. But I did value each of the three WRs as being EQUAL to one another.

With that in mind, hopefully this makes much more sense.

By viewing all three WRs AS BEING EQUAL I had the ability to pass on them knowing that if the teams behind start drafting them I can always snag the third and last WR before it's too late.

Moreover, by waiting on picking a WR, I can consequently view how many of them would be drafted -- if any -- in next four picks. If none of them are drafted by the time Team Two picks then I would snag Garcia right before Team Two. Even though I value each of the WRs more than Garcia I'm taking a calculated risk. I figure there's a better chance Garcia will be taken by Team Two than the chance of the three WRs being taken wih the next eight picks.

Hopefully this makes much more sense. Please tell me it does.

I also kindly ask that we stay on the topic instead of turing this into a raid of personal attacks. -z-

 

[joffer]

Hopefully this makes much more sense. Please tell me it does.

it has always made sense, I just don't think it offers you any advantage.

 

[JohnnyU]

It's really bugging me out on how people aren't getting my strategy. It's not your fault but mine. I'm trying to figure out why I'm confusing you guys. I think I found it. A complete ERROR ON MY PART regarding my initial description of the situation.

Let me cover my tracks just a bit. I gave completely the wrong impression.

I DID NOT view all four players of equal value.

When it was my turn in the 8th round I wanted to take one of the three WRs over Garcia (via another theory of mine called stockpile theory). I DID NOT view Garcia as valuable as the WRS. But I did value each of the three WRs as being EQUAL to one another.

With that in mind, hopefully this makes much more sense.

By viewing all three WRs AS BEING EQUAL I had the ability to pass on them knowing that if the teams behind start drafting them I can always snag the third and last WR before it's too late.

Moreover, by waiting on picking a WR, I can consequently view how many of them would be drafted -- if any -- in next four picks. If none of them are drafted by the time Team Two picks then I would snag Garcia right before Team Two. Even though I value each of the WRs more than Garcia I'm taking a calculated risk. I figure there's a better chance Garcia will be taken by Team Two than the chance of the three WRs being taken wih the next eight picks.

Hopefully this makes much more sense. Please tell me it does.

I also kindly ask that we stay on the topic instead of turing this into a raid of personal attacks. -z-

Z-MEN, Most do understand your strategy and don't agree with it. I think that is the part you are missing, or refuse to accept.

 

[B-Deep]

I DID NOT view all four players of equal value.

When it was my turn in the 8th round I wanted to take one of the three WRs over Garcia (via another theory of mine called stockpile theory). I DID NOT view Garcia as valuable as the WRS. But I did value each of the three WRs as being EQUAL to one another.

you stated the exact opposite several times!

 

[CalBear]

Look, it's really simple; it all hinges on the likelihood that one of the four players lasts to your next chance to pick. Your tactic is useful only if, by passing, you make it less likely that someone will take one of your players. I can see no reason why this might be true. By passing until before team 2, you don't make it less likely that the other owners would pick one of your WRs. By waiting until after team 2, you made it more likely that your QB would not be there at all. So your tactic made it less likely that you'd actually accomplish your goal.

You do not gain any useful information by waiting until before team 2 picks.

You reduced your chances, and it worked out anyway, because the other players assessed player values better than you did, and passed on Galloway and Garcia where you were targeting them.

 

[Z-Men]

I DID NOT view all four players of equal value.

When it was my turn in the 8th round I wanted to take one of the three WRs over Garcia (via another theory of mine called stockpile theory). I DID NOT view Garcia as valuable as the WRS. But I did value each of the three WRs as being EQUAL to one another.

you stated the exact opposite several times!

Others have stated the exact opposite several times. Where did I mention Garcia was more valuable??? -z-

 

[fridayfrenzy]

OK, please end this trainwreck. Sorry Z-Men, but your strategy is flawed and holds no value.

 

[bagger.]

Hopefully this makes much more sense. Please tell me it does.

it has always made sense, I just don't think it offers you any advantage.

 

[jwvdcw]

Z-Men, I've actually read your book(a bootleg copy that I read before the actual book came out actually). I enjoyed the first read so much that I sandpapered the edges down and read it a second time  ....I have many thoughts, but I'll start with asking you a simple series of questions:

Would you advocate drafting without paying heed to your innermost timetable when it?

Now I know exactly what you mean majorizin when you said I got enough trouble figuring out what jwvdcw is always on about. Funny stuff. -z-

Ummm...ok, I'll simplifyo you count seconds in your head or do you rely upon an official "timekeeper"?

care to answer?

 

[G3-175SE]

Curious to know how many local leagues actually enforce a time limit per pick. If so, I have a few questions:

1) How long is it?

2) What happens if you let time run down to zero?

3) Has any1 ever let their time run down to zero and, if so, why did that happen?

I ask because I face approx. a one minute time limit in the high stakes events I play (WCOFF, FF Masters, etc.). If I let time run out then the next manager in line gets to pick. After he/she picks then I get another five seconds to make my pick. If I dont make my pick then the next manager in line gets to pick and this whole process repeats until I make my pick.

I've let my time run down to zero on numerous occasions for strategic purposes. Yes, sounds weird. I have my reasons and would like to know if any1 else is crazy like me.

-z-

2 minutesgo to the end of the draft.

 

[G3-175SE]

I'm going to movies now. I'll check this thread later tonight to see if any1 can guess the three options I had in Round 8. I'll give away one of the options here:

First option: I could draft one of the WRs now in which case I’d have to simply hope Garcia fell to me in the ninth. However, I was really worried about Team Two since they were the one team sitting behind me that didn’t have a QB yet. I concluded it was too risky to simply take a WR now and just hope Garcia wrapped around to me.

-z-

The question isn't who you draft but who cares! If I wanted to play a guessing game I would go play with my kids.

 

[G3-175SE]

I think this guy would probably sell a lot more books if he didn't come off so arrogant and treat everyone else as if they were 5 year olds. Seriously, if he would've followed MT's advice and just posted what he did and why, he might've got some good response and drummed up some interest in his product (assuming what he did made any sense). Instead, he's now being ridiculed all because he wants to stroke his ego, which I'm doubting will help his book sales.

He wrote a book? Really? What is it called? I am going out to the book store right now to buy it. I have a $1, will that be enough?

 

[BoltThrower]

These situations also enabled me to draft the right players and earn a great deal of money,

I'm still :shuked: here.