Toby Gerhart - dynasty buy? (8 Viewers)

[EBF]

I would say 2.03 is the minimum value. He is looking like a starting RB on a team without a lot of competition. That has to make him at least RB25. What kind of rookie RB will you be able to draft at 2.03? An NFL third or fourth rounder. That's a guy who won't start his rookie year and may never start or perform in fantasy. Gerhart won't have as many years of potential production because of his age, but he has a very good chance of delivering 1-2 years of starting RB value. in PPR I think the value is even more because he has a pretty good receiver and is a good enough blocker to stay in on passing downs. He is a good enough short yardage back to get the goal line opportunities.

What do other people see as his rookie draft value? I would put him in the same range as Ray Rice: 1.07-2.02, but personally, I wouldn't trade him for less than a 1.12.

It's likely that a couple of Hyde/Mason/Hill/Sankey/Williams/Seastrunk/etc will end up in good situations as probable opening day starters. You'd almost have to rank those guys ahead of Toby due to their youth advantage. Watkins and Evans will have more market value in every league. The highest you can probably argue for Toby is around the 1.06-1.07 rookie pick. I think he's worth at least a late 1st in mandatory start 2 RB leagues. I think he's worth at least an early 2nd in mandatory start 1 RB leagues and possibly a late 1st depending on your team composition and needs.

There are going to be younger players out there with a lot more potential career VBD, but only a couple with similar immediate prospects at a key position of need. Lacy, Bell, and Ball were all top 8-9 picks in my leagues and often went top 3-6. Toby isn't worth as much because of his age, but that's the only real difference. Just like they were, he's a good (not great) RB stepping into what figures to be an immediate starting job. He has a similar potential to become an immediate fixture in your FF lineup for at least one season. The longevity potential is minimal, so he mainly has value for teams that figure to benefit most from the instant help.

 

[Concept Coop]

He'll be a borderline flex option next year and a solid RB3; I don't expect anything more than that. He'll be a RBBC member in a horrible situation. Where I own him, he's been put on the block.

 

[DexterDew]

I have Gerhart stashed on a couple of rosters as a "what the heck" knowing he was going to be a FA. I like the landing spot, but we are still way early in the off/new season that I am tempering my expectations on his current value. Right now, he is the presumptive starter... but presumptive is a funny word with a little assumption in there. JAX could draft a RB in the 4th or 5th to develop for the long term (or we could have a Stacy effect where the rookie is just better).

So I think someone could "probably argue" that he is worth a 1.06 or 1.07 is really specious. In this wonderful Shark Pool, people argue all the time for the sake of arguing. So for another data point, I would gladly take a late 1st or 2015 1st for him. Maybe a high 2 plus something if I didn't critically need a RB this year. After the NFL draft (and FA being over) maybe that price will change.

Just my $.02

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I have Gerhart stashed on a couple of rosters as a "what the heck" knowing he was going to be a FA. I like the landing spot, but we are still way early in the off/new season that I am tempering my expectations on his current value. Right now, he is the presumptive starter... but presumptive is a funny word with a little assumption in there. JAX could draft a RB in the 4th or 5th to develop for the long term (or we could have a Stacy effect where the rookie is just better).

So I think someone could "probably argue" that he is worth a 1.06 or 1.07 is really specious. In this wonderful Shark Pool, people argue all the time for the sake of arguing. So for another data point, I would gladly take a late 1st or 2015 1st for him. Maybe a high 2 plus something if I didn't critically need a RB this year. After the NFL draft (and FA being over) maybe that price will change.

Just my $.02

Even though they are paying Gerhardt well, it wouldn't be shocking if even Todman ends up beating him out. Todman is a nice runner and he played well in limited action also last season.

 

[Concept Coop]

Right now, he is the presumptive starter... but presumptive is a funny word with a little assumption in there. JAX could draft a RB in the 4th or 5th to develop for the long term (or we could have a Stacy effect where the rookie is just better).

I agree with most of this. I'd also add, even if he does start--what does that promise, in terms of fantasy points? I expect him to be the starter the same way Lamar Miller, Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram started for their teams. I could certainly be wrong, and he was a very high draft pick for a RB, which is cause for optimism. At one point I was very much a Toby buyer, and have him on a couple rosters because of it. I just don't think Jacksonville is a situation to inspire this hype.

 

[EBF]

The draft is a hurdle and I could see waiting until after it passes to put that kind of value on him. If they grab an explosive complement like Seastrunk, it would throw a monkey wrench into his value. There aren't too many of those in the draft though and if he clears that hurdle then there's not much separating him from top 15-20 redraft numbers. I don't think Todman is all that great and Toby can catch the ball, which is a huge variable in PPR leagues.

The pessimistic view is to say he'll be Miller/Ivory/Ingram. He could just as easily be Bell/Lacy/Stacy. If you need a RB for the next 1-2 years, you're probably not going to find a better candidate in the late 1st-early 2nd of your rookie draft. I think it's a reasonable place to slot him, though maybe not until after the draft if you're skittish on his talent. Flipside is his value will calcify if Jacksonville doesn't draft a big name at RB, so the price will likely go up.

I really have no clue what "market value" is for him right now. Just offering my own assessment. It will be interesting to see Toby trades trickle into the trade thread now that he's landed in a good spot. I think there will be a lot of variance in how highly people rate him.

 

[TheFanatic]

Being a pass catching threat is a huge bonus for this guy. So even if the Jags are getting blown out, he would still be in there getting touches. He's not going to play three quarters and then pass block as they play catch up. He could wind up putting up really good numbers the next few years...

 

[Sabertooth]

Huh?

 

[az_prof]

Being a pass catching threat is a huge bonus for this guy. So even if the Jags are getting blown out, he would still be in there getting touches. He's not going to play three quarters and then pass block as they play catch up. He could wind up putting up really good numbers the next few years...

I play in PPR and so this may color my valuation of Gerhart. I do see him catching a ton of dump passes late in games and racking up the PPR points. FWIW, Jags did add a competent though not great OG in first day of free agency so that can't hurt the blocking, which I know was very bad last year.

I would trade him for a late first round pick only because I have depth at RB, but I can't imagine trading him for a second round pick. Completely agree that giving a mid-first would be risky. His real value IMO is a late first.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I think he's probably going to provide a few years of mid RB2 in PPR, slightly less in standard. What that's worth depends on your team situation, but those who got him for a song certainly did well. I personally think he'd have been better off for FF in NY (either) or Cleveland though.

 

[matttyl]

He was just traded for V Jax and the #31 rookie pick in my dynasty league, for whatever that's worth.

 

[Concept Coop]

He was just traded for V Jax and the #31 rookie pick in my dynasty league, for whatever that's worth.

It shouldn't be surprising, based on the Ivory deals we saw last year. But I'm still surprised.

 

[msudaisy26]

He was just traded for V Jax and the #31 rookie pick in my dynasty league, for whatever that's worth.

It shouldn't be surprising, based on the Ivory deals we saw last year. But I'm still surprised.

I am not surprised either. I traded Ivory and 2.01 last year for Amendola and a 2014 1st.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Toby is a much better FF asset than Ivory IMO, even with a worse situation -- he can catch the ball and stay healthy. VJax is too much though IMO even with desperate need at RB.

 

[Concept Coop]

Toby is a much better FF asset than Ivory IMO, even with a worse situation -- he can catch the ball. VJax is too much though IMO even with desperate need at RB.

He can catch, but has never looked as good as Ivory did in NO; though the sample size was small. He's turning 27 while Ivory was 24 at the time.

 

[Gandalf]

I think RB2 is possible. He will be good value on draft/auction day.

 

[Stealthycat]

Honestly I don't remember many successful "white" starting NFL RBs in the last 15/20 years.....

I hate the above comments.

If I said " Honestly I don't remember many successful "black" NFL coaches in the last 15/20 years....." ya'll would scream racism and say how black coaches have been held back blah blah blah

so sick of it - reverse racism at its finest

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Toby is a much better FF asset than Ivory IMO, even with a worse situation -- he can catch the ball. VJax is too much though IMO even with desperate need at RB.

He can catch, but has never looked as good as Ivory did in NO; though the sample size was small. He's turning 27 while Ivory was 24 at the time.

Much better pedigree, bigger contract also -- and I hate using the eyeball test LOL.

 

[Eminence]

I'm not sipping the kool-aid. Who's their Quarterback? Who's he throwing to? Are they still going to be playing from behind the majority of games?

 

[squistion]

Honestly I don't remember many successful "white" starting NFL RBs in the last 15/20 years.....

I hate the above comments.

If I said " Honestly I don't remember many successful "black" NFL coaches in the last 15/20 years....." ya'll would scream racism and say how black coaches have been held back blah blah blah

so sick of it - reverse racism at its finest

Um, no, we would mention Tony Dungy.

 

[kutta]

Honestly I don't remember many successful "white" starting NFL RBs in the last 15/20 years.....

I hate the above comments.

If I said " Honestly I don't remember many successful "black" NFL coaches in the last 15/20 years....." ya'll would scream racism and say how black coaches have been held back blah blah blah

so sick of it - reverse racism at its finest

I think it's silly that we can't say it, and if we do we are branded racists.

It's a statement of fact. There haven't been many significant white running backs in the past 20 years. I would say that Toby's chances of breaking that streak are pretty slim.

 

[Concept Coop]

Much better pedigree, bigger contract also -- and I hate using the eyeball test LOL.

I respect that stance. The Jags obviously thought he looked good enough to invest in, which is a very good sign for his owners. He just hasn't looked very good to me and it would take a very good RB to do much in Jax, IMO.

Um, no, we would mention Tony Dungy.

Don't feed him!

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Coach Gus Bradley said newly signed Toby Gerhart could regularly see 15-20 touches per game.
This is exactly what we expected after the Jags handed Gerhart a three-deal worth $10.5 million and $4.5 million guaranteed. Jordan Todman and Denard Robinson will have to battle for supporting roles. Gerhart will likely end up as a RB2 in fantasy circles thanks to 300-plus touches, but he won't have much week-to-week upside as a grinding runner playing in a low-scoring offense.

Related: Jordan Todman

Source: Florida Times Union

 

[Young 8]

Honestly I don't remember many successful "white" starting NFL RBs in the last 15/20 years.....

I hate the above comments.

If I said " Honestly I don't remember many successful "black" NFL coaches in the last 15/20 years....." ya'll would scream racism and say how black coaches have been held back blah blah blah

so sick of it - reverse racism at its finest

Ok, then prove me wrong with a list of great white NFL RBs of the last 15/20 years.

Can't wait.

 

[msudaisy26]

Honestly I don't remember many successful "white" starting NFL RBs in the last 15/20 years.....

I hate the above comments.

If I said " Honestly I don't remember many successful "black" NFL coaches in the last 15/20 years....." ya'll would scream racism and say how black coaches have been held back blah blah blah

so sick of it - reverse racism at its finest

Ok, then prove me wrong with a list of great white NFL RBs of the last 15/20 years.

Can't wait.

Peyton Hillis =)

 

[Shutout]

Complete sell and sell now.

The jags will add another guy somewhere in the draft and since Toby is not a clear top talent, it only weakens his value from that perspective.

But mainly, it's the jags. They aren't good enough to stay on the field long enough, game in and game out, to make Toby relevant consistently and score consistently. Some people mention late game garbage points but those games can just as easily be games where they put the second stringers in or simply don't get the ball because they can't keep the opponent off the field.

 

[biju]

Complete sell and sell now.

The jags will add another guy somewhere in the draft and since Toby is not a clear top talent, it only weakens his value from that perspective.

But mainly, it's the jags. They aren't good enough to stay on the field long enough, game in and game out, to make Toby relevant consistently and score consistently. Some people mention late game garbage points but those games can just as easily be games where they put the second stringers in or simply don't get the ball because they can't keep the opponent off the field.

Marshawn Lynch was written off in Buffalo and traded to a 7-9 team. Not that I feel Lynch and Gerhart are equal in talent, but your insinuation the Jaguars can't turn it around in a reasonable amount of time is absurd. MJD was still getting 2nd round picks last year and I would say they are at least equal given MJD's decline and Gerhart's fresh legs.

 

[FUBAR]

Being a pass catching threat is a huge bonus for this guy. So even if the Jags are getting blown out, he would still be in there getting touches. He's not going to play three quarters and then pass block as they play catch up. He could wind up putting up really good numbers the next few years...

I play in PPR and so this may color my valuation of Gerhart. I do see him catching a ton of dump passes late in games and racking up the PPR points. FWIW, Jags did add a competent though not great OG in first day of free agency so that can't hurt the blocking, which I know was very bad last year.

I would trade him for a late first round pick only because I have depth at RB, but I can't imagine trading him for a second round pick. Completely agree that giving a mid-first would be risky. His real value IMO is a late first.

That's what disappoints me as a Denard Robinson owner. I didn't have high hopes, but figured he'd probably have the short-pass role.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Complete sell and sell now.

The jags will add another guy somewhere in the draft and since Toby is not a clear top talent, it only weakens his value from that perspective.

But mainly, it's the jags. They aren't good enough to stay on the field long enough, game in and game out, to make Toby relevant consistently and score consistently. Some people mention late game garbage points but those games can just as easily be games where they put the second stringers in or simply don't get the ball because they can't keep the opponent off the field.

Did Jacksonville get blown out (to the point they'd put second stringers in) very often last season?

 

[ghostguy123]

I can't wait to see the first trade where someone gives like pick 7 or 8.

Oh, and by the way, there is a big difference between these two statements:

- There haven't been any good White RBs in the past two decades.

and

- Gerhart will suck because he is white.

Some people just don't know what is racist and what isn't.

 

[Stealthycat]

maybe Gerhart has been held back because he's not a black RB ? Maybe if he were black he'd be given the opportunity to succeed?

that's what people say when the shoe is on the other foot isn't it ? I didn't bring the race thing up - ya'll did

Gerhart is getting a chance to be a feature RB - anyone buying mid-last season got him for a great price - that's all you can ask for when a RB like that is on your roster.

Go Toby !

 

[ghostguy123]

Not sure he was held back for being White. Pretty sure he was held back because of Peterson

 

[Dr. Octopus]

maybe Gerhart has been held back because he's not a black RB ? Maybe if he were black he'd be given the opportunity to succeed?

that's what people say when the shoe is on the other foot isn't it ? I didn't bring the race thing up - ya'll did

Gerhart is getting a chance to be a feature RB - anyone buying mid-last season got him for a great price - that's all you can ask for when a RB like that is on your roster.

Go Toby !

Please let this be the only response to this post, so that this thread doesn't get derailed with nonsense. Come on Sharkpool.

 

[menobrown]

Honestly I don't remember many successful "white" starting NFL RBs in the last 15/20 years.....

I hate the above comments.

I read that comment earlier and assumed it was not going to be well received. My take is if we can get past trying to be politically correct it's no different than what Arian's said about Manziel when he said: "There are a bunch of 6-5 successful guys who are athletic," Arians said. "The 5-11 guys, it has to throw a question mark out there."

Comping race vs size is absolutely apples to oranges. But I do believe the message is inherently the same and that's when a player has a characteristic that is drastically different than the prototype of successful players it's only natural for that to lead to a question mark. People naturally feel more comfortable evaluating talent when they have someone to comp them with that fits in all the boxes.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Much better pedigree, bigger contract also -- and I hate using the eyeball test LOL.

I respect that stance. The Jags obviously thought he looked good enough to invest in, which is a very good sign for his owners. He just hasn't looked very good to me and it would take a very good RB to do much in Jax, IMO.

I'm not in love with him, don't get me wrong. But 1200ish YFS, 30 - 35 catches, 5/6 TDs makes him an OK RB2 in 12 teamers. Given the lack of competition, that seems likely enough IMO. Obviously pending the draft in May -- but that team has a lot of needs, and I wouldn't see a 5th / 6th rounder as a serious threat.

 

[jurb26]

Much better pedigree, bigger contract also -- and I hate using the eyeball test LOL.

I respect that stance. The Jags obviously thought he looked good enough to invest in, which is a very good sign for his owners. He just hasn't looked very good to me and it would take a very good RB to do much in Jax, IMO.

I'm not in love with him, don't get me wrong. But 1200ish YFS, 30 - 35 catches, 5/6 TDs makes him an OK RB2 in 12 teamers. Given the lack of competition, that seems likely enough IMO. Obviously pending the draft in May -- but that team has a lot of needs, and I wouldn't see a 5th / 6th rounder as a serious threat.

I don't think Jack has as many needs as people let on. The D is pretty solid and they are favorites to add Thurmond. They are also favorites to add E. Sanders at WR. Really they just need a QB and some more oline help possibly. They could still draft a back in the 3rd or 4th that would be pretty decent competition IMO.

 

[Shutout]

Complete sell and sell now.

The jags will add another guy somewhere in the draft and since Toby is not a clear top talent, it only weakens his value from that perspective.

But mainly, it's the jags. They aren't good enough to stay on the field long enough, game in and game out, to make Toby relevant consistently and score consistently. Some people mention late game garbage points but those games can just as easily be games where they put the second stringers in or simply don't get the ball because they can't keep the opponent off the field.

Did Jacksonville get blown out (to the point they'd put second stringers in) very often last season?

8 games of 15 or more and it wasn't as close as the score indicated. On offense, they broke the 20 point barrier 5 times maybe. In today's NFL, 20 points is the starting point for bad teams and max struggled to get there. This is a BAD team with limited ability.

We can put lipstick on the pig all we want, but at the ends the day, fantasy owners will die a slow and agonizing death hanging their hopes on jaguar players.

 

[Shutout]

Complete sell and sell now.

The jags will add another guy somewhere in the draft and since Toby is not a clear top talent, it only weakens his value from that perspective.

But mainly, it's the jags. They aren't good enough to stay on the field long enough, game in and game out, to make Toby relevant consistently and score consistently. Some people mention late game garbage points but those games can just as easily be games where they put the second stringers in or simply don't get the ball because they can't keep the opponent off the field.

Marshawn Lynch was written off in Buffalo and traded to a 7-9 team. Not that I feel Lynch and Gerhart are equal in talent, but your insinuation the Jaguars can't turn it around in a reasonable amount of time is absurd. MJD was still getting 2nd round picks last year and I would say they are at least equal given MJD's decline and Gerhart's fresh legs.

Yeah. They have been terrible for a decade. I'm sure that get hart is the answer here and that he is better than mjd, even today, and that he can have a lynch impact. Who's absurd here? Come on. It's cool to debate silliness in March and April but there's a limit. The jaguars? The jaguars in the same conference as the broncos, colts, patriots, steelers, bengals, etc,etc? This is the team that is going to turn it around with gerhart, a pedestrian qb, and their best player is suspended?

I'd rather be dead wrong and give them a pat on the back later than drink one sip of this kool aid.

 

[TheFanatic]

I'll say it again. A team that is down passes a lot to catch up. Toby can catch. He will be in the game in the 4th quarter to do more than block. He's not going to be top 12, but he's going to get a lot of touches. His YPC will suck but they don't have anyone else...

 

[EBF]

Honestly I don't remember many successful "white" starting NFL RBs in the last 15/20 years.....

I hate the above comments.

If I said " Honestly I don't remember many successful "black" NFL coaches in the last 15/20 years....." ya'll would scream racism and say how black coaches have been held back blah blah blah

so sick of it - reverse racism at its finest

I think it's silly that we can't say it, and if we do we are branded racists.

It's a statement of fact. There haven't been many significant white running backs in the past 20 years. I would say that Toby's chances of breaking that streak are pretty slim.

I've never seen another white RB with his combination of size, power, speed, and agility. I can't name another who was as successful in college in the past 10 years and was also vetted by the NFL draft process with such a high pick. I guess there's Brian Leonard. Personally, I never bought the hype there and always thought he was more of a RB/FB tweener. Relative to other "white" RBs, Gerhart is a freak. He holds the California high school record for career rushing yards. We know what he did at Stanford. 2000+ yards rushing in his final season and nearly won the Heisman. He's not your typical unathletic white RB. And FWIW, Ryan Mathews and Justin Fargas are just as white as they are black.

Here are Toby's Vikings highlights:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IFSGIGp0-E

I don't see amazing speed or explosiveness there and his ability to elude tacklers in the second level leaves something to be desired, but he's a tank at 6'0" 230 with a strong lower body and he has just enough hip flexibility/footwork to get by. For people who think he can't be a successful FF option, I'd challenge you to explain to me what exactly makes Eddie Lacy and LeVeon Bell superior talents. I don't think they're any better.

Draft position:

Bell - 48th overall

Lacy - 61st overall

Gerhart - 51st overall

College production:

Bell - 3346 rushing yards, 5.0 YPC, 531 receiving yards

Lacy - 2402 rushing yards, 6.8 YPC, 338 receiving yards

Gerhart - 3522 rushing yards, 5.2 YPC, 395 receiving yards

Workout numbers:

Height / Weight / BMI / 40 / Vertical / Broad Jump / Three Cone

Bell - 6' 1 3/8", 230 pounds, 30.0, 4.56 seconds, 31.5", 9'10", 6.75 seconds

Lacy - 5' 11", 231 pounds, 32.2, 4.64 seconds, 33.5", 9'7", 7.33 seconds

Gerhart - 6' 0", 231 pounds, 31.3, 4.50 seconds, 38", 9'10", 6.94 seconds

If you want to say "they just look better to me" then there's really nothing I can say to refute that, but in terms of the concrete tangibles there isn't much separating them. Lacy is a little thicker. Bell may be a little quicker. In terms of overall combine metrics, Gerhart might be the best of the trio though. The only real weakness on his workout resume is the 9'10" broad jump and that's still tied with Bell (who has the advantage of being 1+ inches taller).

The college production was similar. Lacy had a significantly higher career YPC, albeit for a better team on far fewer carries. Gerhart had a higher career YPC than Bell. Overall, I think you'd probably have to concede that their college careers were all pretty similar. All of them did very well and finished on a high note with a monster season before leaving school.

Then there's the draft spot. Gerhart was selected three spots lower than where Bell went and ten spots higher than where Lacy went. If you believe that draft position represents a decent approximation of the league's assessment of a given prospect's talent level, there's no significant difference between Gerhart and Bell/Lacy. His career NFL YPC is also higher with a much higher big run %, albeit mostly as a COOP back. If you limit the sample to only include the games that he started, he still has a 4.2 YPC lifetime compared to 4.0 for Lacy and 3.5 for Bell. The results are inconclusive, but nothing in their NFL performance suggests that the younger guys are better.

The Jaguars are a weak team, but in some ways that works in his favor. His competition for touches is minimal. And you don't need to be on a great team to yield solid FF stats. Neither the Bucs nor the Browns made the playoffs when Doug Martin and Trent Richardson put up top 10 ppg seasons as rookies. This past year we saw Zac Stacy and LeVeon Bell post strong FF numbers on weak NFL teams. The Rams were an absolute dumpster fire and yet it didn't matter. If you're the unquestioned lead back on an NFL team getting 15-20 touches per game, you're going to put up useful FF numbers and possibly very good FF numbers. That's just reality.

If you need every RB to be a world class talent and to be in a perfect situation for you to get excited about their short-term outlook, your cheatsheet is gonna have about 3 or 4 names on it every year. Gerhart isn't LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles. Then again, neither were Zac Stacy, LeVeon Bell, and Knowshon Moreno. You don't need to be a great RB to have FF value. The main thing you need is opportunity, and Gerhart has it in droves.

 

[Mr. Brownstone]

Complete sell and sell now.

The jags will add another guy somewhere in the draft and since Toby is not a clear top talent, it only weakens his value from that perspective.

But mainly, it's the jags. They aren't good enough to stay on the field long enough, game in and game out, to make Toby relevant consistently and score consistently. Some people mention late game garbage points but those games can just as easily be games where they put the second stringers in or simply don't get the ball because they can't keep the opponent off the field.

Did Jacksonville get blown out (to the point they'd put second stringers in) very often last season?

The Jags STARTED games with mostly second stringers.

 

[ILUVBEER99]

A genuine "tough guy" type runner, workman like going to wear down a defense.

LOL.

 

[EBF]

As for the idea of Jacksonville drafting a back, it's certainly possible. In fact, I think it's likely that they'll add one at some point.

Should Gerhart owners be worried about that? That depends. Is there a RB prospect in this draft who's clearly better than Gerhart?

On paper, he is similar to Hyde and Hill. 230 pounds. A little faster (4.50 compared to 4.66). Might not be as quick laterally, but had a stronger overall workout profile than either of those two. Similarly dominant college career. Lower YPC, but then you'd probably have to concede that LSU and Ohio State were better teams during their tenure than Stanford was during Gerhart's tenure (they were quite bad until his last year there when Luck was a first year starter). Given that Hill and Hyde are projected as 2nd-3rd rounders by most reliable sources, I don't see a strong argument for either of them being a strong favorite to beat out Gerhart in year one. Either name would potentially turn the situation into a RBBC, but then you have to ask why Jacksonville would use a top 50-90 draft pick on a non-elite 230 pounder with hands when they just signed someone exactly like that. If they draft a RB that high, I think it would make sense to get someone who isn't totally redundant with the guy they just signed for pretty decent money.

Mason is a possibility. He's a little more explosive than Toby overall, but similar in some respects. More of a power back than a speed back at the end of the day. Oh, and he'll cost you a 2nd round pick to acquire. Is that a smart investment for Jacksonville? Anything is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it. Sankey, Carey, Sims, and Freeman could be possibilities, as they're all a little quicker and better in space. Of that lot, I'm not sure I'd back any to win a starting RB battle over Gerhart in year one. They'd probably either be in a commitee or they'd be the Montee Ball to his Moreno. Seastrunk would make sense as a complement given his electric big play skills. If he's there in the 3rd-4th round, maybe they'll take him. Most of the other backs in the draft are day three types who would be big underdogs to beat him out for a job. In other words, they'd be the Gerhart to his Peterson.

If you want to take a pessimistic line, you could say there are 8-10 "grenades" in this rookie RB class who would significantly disrupt Gerhart's short-term value. If you assume that those players are equally likely to end up on any of the 32 teams in the NFL, that means you're looking at approximately a 25-30% chance of disaster. In other words, it's relatively unlikely. To believe otherwise, you'd have to argue that there are more than 8-10 backs in the draft who could significantly cut into his touches in year one and/or that the Jaguars are more likely than random to prioritize the RB position. I don't buy either of those things and would actually argue that they're LESS likely than average to invest a top 75-100 pick at RB given what they just spent on a free agent, but there's no way to know for sure.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Trade in a league

1.13 n josh McCown

For

Toby and 2.14

(1.13 is toilet bowl pick, two rb mandatory rb league, ppr)

 

[squistion]

Should Gerhart owners be worried about that? That depends. Is there a RB prospect in this draft who's clearly better than Gerhart?

 

[ShaHBucks]

Honestly I don't remember many successful "white" starting NFL RBs in the last 15/20 years.....

I hate the above comments.

If I said " Honestly I don't remember many successful "black" NFL coaches in the last 15/20 years....." ya'll would scream racism and say how black coaches have been held back blah blah blah

so sick of it - reverse racism at its finest

I think it's silly that we can't say it, and if we do we are branded racists.It's a statement of fact. There haven't been many significant white running backs in the past 20 years. I would say that Toby's chances of breaking that streak are pretty slim.

I've never seen another white RB with his combination of size, power, speed, and agility. I can't name another who was as successful in college in the past 10 years and was also vetted by the NFL draft process with such a high pick. I guess there's Brian Leonard. Personally, I never bought the hype there and always thought he was more of a RB/FB tweener. Relative to other "white" RBs, Gerhart is a freak. He holds the California high school record for career rushing yards. We know what he did at Stanford. 2000+ yards rushing in his final season and nearly won the Heisman. He's not your typical unathletic white RB. And FWIW, Ryan Mathews and Justin Fargas are just as white as they are black.

Here are Toby's Vikings highlights:

Why do you have to keep talking down on Bell, Stacy and Lacy? Gerhart is one of the best physically constructed power backs in the league. He had crazy production at Standford. You can compare him to anyone if you wanted to. You(we) won man.

 

[Brewtown]

As for the idea of Jacksonville drafting a back, it's certainly possible. In fact, I think it's likely that they'll add one at some point.

Should Gerhart owners be worried about that? That depends. Is there a RB prospect in this draft who's clearly better than Gerhart?

On paper, he is similar to Hyde and Hill. 230 pounds. A little faster (4.50 compared to 4.66). Might not be as quick laterally, but had a stronger overall workout profile than either of those two. Similarly dominant college career. Lower YPC, but then you'd probably have to concede that LSU and Ohio State were better teams during their tenure than Stanford was during Gerhart's tenure (they were quite bad until his last year there when Luck was a first year starter). Given that Hill and Hyde are projected as 2nd-3rd rounders by most reliable sources, I don't see a strong argument for either of them being a strong favorite to beat out Gerhart in year one. Either name would potentially turn the situation into a RBBC, but then you have to ask why Jacksonville would use a top 50-90 draft pick on a non-elite 230 pounder with hands when they just signed someone exactly like that. If they draft a RB that high, I think it would make sense to get someone who isn't totally redundant with the guy they just signed for pretty decent money.

Mason is a possibility. He's a little more explosive than Toby overall, but similar in some respects. More of a power back than a speed back at the end of the day. Oh, and he'll cost you a 2nd round pick to acquire. Is that a smart investment for Jacksonville? Anything is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it. Sankey, Carey, Sims, and Freeman could be possibilities, as they're all a little quicker and better in space. Of that lot, I'm not sure I'd back any to win a starting RB battle over Gerhart in year one. They'd probably either be in a commitee or they'd be the Montee Ball to his Moreno. Seastrunk would make sense as a complement given his electric big play skills. If he's there in the 3rd-4th round, maybe they'll take him. Most of the other backs in the draft are day three types who would be big underdogs to beat him out for a job. In other words, they'd be the Gerhart to his Peterson.

If you want to take a pessimistic line, you could say there are 8-10 "grenades" in this rookie RB class who would significantly disrupt Gerhart's short-term value. If you assume that those players are equally likely to end up on any of the 32 teams in the NFL, that means you're looking at approximately a 25-30% chance of disaster. In other words, it's relatively unlikely. To believe otherwise, you'd have to argue that there are more than 8-10 backs in the draft who could significantly cut into his touches in year one and/or that the Jaguars are more likely than random to prioritize the RB position. I don't buy either of those things and would actually argue that they're LESS likely than average to invest a top 75-100 pick at RB given what they just spent on a free agent, but there's no way to know for sure.

Seriously - less is more...

The Jags will get one of the top 10 RBs in the draft and all have the talent to unseat any great white hope in the NFL.

 

[ShaHBucks]

The arrow is defiantly pointing up for Jac. We know for sure Gabbert isn't playing QB. They have a nice 1-2 punch at WR. Todman is a nice change of pace. They have a ok TE. Now we see how they handle the QB position and how the schedule plays out. Maybe they'll get Bridgewater. They might be watchable then. I have to agree with Jurb26. Jags are a saavy QB draft pick from being competitive.

 

[biju]

Complete sell and sell now.

The jags will add another guy somewhere in the draft and since Toby is not a clear top talent, it only weakens his value from that perspective.

But mainly, it's the jags. They aren't good enough to stay on the field long enough, game in and game out, to make Toby relevant consistently and score consistently. Some people mention late game garbage points but those games can just as easily be games where they put the second stringers in or simply don't get the ball because they can't keep the opponent off the field.

Marshawn Lynch was written off in Buffalo and traded to a 7-9 team. Not that I feel Lynch and Gerhart are equal in talent, but your insinuation the Jaguars can't turn it around in a reasonable amount of time is absurd. MJD was still getting 2nd round picks last year and I would say they are at least equal given MJD's decline and Gerhart's fresh legs.

Yeah. They have been terrible for a decade. I'm sure that get hart is the answer here and that he is better than mjd, even today, and that he can have a lynch impact. Who's absurd here? Come on. It's cool to debate silliness in March and April but there's a limit. The jaguars? The jaguars in the same conference as the broncos, colts, patriots, steelers, bengals, etc,etc? This is the team that is going to turn it around with gerhart, a pedestrian qb, and their best player is suspended?

I'd rather be dead wrong and give them a pat on the back later than drink one sip of this kool aid.

Just so we're clear, I noted he isn't the talent Lynch is. If you want to twist my words around maybe you should try a little harder. And for the record I'd prefer to be in the AFC than the NFC.

And for the record, I'd rather buy low and guess wrong than to completely miss out. You're taking a very odd stance IMO here from a dynasty perspective. But then again, I haven't really agreed with you on most things.

 

[saintfool]

As for the idea of Jacksonville drafting a back, it's certainly possible. In fact, I think it's likely that they'll add one at some point.

Should Gerhart owners be worried about that? That depends. Is there a RB prospect in this draft who's clearly better than Gerhart?

On paper, he is similar to Hyde and Hill. 230 pounds. A little faster (4.50 compared to 4.66). Might not be as quick laterally, but had a stronger overall workout profile than either of those two. Similarly dominant college career. Lower YPC, but then you'd probably have to concede that LSU and Ohio State were better teams during their tenure than Stanford was during Gerhart's tenure (they were quite bad until his last year there when Luck was a first year starter). Given that Hill and Hyde are projected as 2nd-3rd rounders by most reliable sources, I don't see a strong argument for either of them being a strong favorite to beat out Gerhart in year one. Either name would potentially turn the situation into a RBBC, but then you have to ask why Jacksonville would use a top 50-90 draft pick on a non-elite 230 pounder with hands when they just signed someone exactly like that. If they draft a RB that high, I think it would make sense to get someone who isn't totally redundant with the guy they just signed for pretty decent money.

Mason is a possibility. He's a little more explosive than Toby overall, but similar in some respects. More of a power back than a speed back at the end of the day. Oh, and he'll cost you a 2nd round pick to acquire. Is that a smart investment for Jacksonville? Anything is possible, but I wouldn't bet on it. Sankey, Carey, Sims, and Freeman could be possibilities, as they're all a little quicker and better in space. Of that lot, I'm not sure I'd back any to win a starting RB battle over Gerhart in year one. They'd probably either be in a commitee or they'd be the Montee Ball to his Moreno. Seastrunk would make sense as a complement given his electric big play skills. If he's there in the 3rd-4th round, maybe they'll take him. Most of the other backs in the draft are day three types who would be big underdogs to beat him out for a job. In other words, they'd be the Gerhart to his Peterson.

If you want to take a pessimistic line, you could say there are 8-10 "grenades" in this rookie RB class who would significantly disrupt Gerhart's short-term value. If you assume that those players are equally likely to end up on any of the 32 teams in the NFL, that means you're looking at approximately a 25-30% chance of disaster. In other words, it's relatively unlikely. To believe otherwise, you'd have to argue that there are more than 8-10 backs in the draft who could significantly cut into his touches in year one and/or that the Jaguars are more likely than random to prioritize the RB position. I don't buy either of those things and would actually argue that they're LESS likely than average to invest a top 75-100 pick at RB given what they just spent on a free agent, but there's no way to know for sure.

Seriously - less is more...

The Jags will get one of the top 10 RBs in the draft and all have the talent to unseat any great white hope in the NFL.

that's a lot of faith for the incoming RB crop. this is not a draft with top tier talent at the position. the combine and pro days are proving that daily.