Honestly I don't remember many successful "white" starting NFL RBs in the last 15/20 years.....
I hate the above comments.
If I said "
Honestly I don't remember many successful "black" NFL coaches in the last 15/20 years....." ya'll would scream racism and say how black coaches have been held back blah blah blah
so sick of it - reverse racism at its finest
I think it's silly that we can't say it, and if we do we are branded racists.
It's a statement of fact. There haven't been many significant white running backs in the past 20 years. I would say that Toby's chances of breaking that streak are pretty slim.
I've never seen another white RB with his combination of size, power, speed, and agility. I can't name another who was as successful in college in the past 10 years and was also vetted by the NFL draft process with such a high pick. I guess there's Brian Leonard. Personally, I never bought the hype there and always thought he was more of a RB/FB tweener. Relative to other "white" RBs, Gerhart is a freak. He holds the California high school record for career rushing yards. We know what he did at Stanford. 2000+ yards rushing in his final season and nearly won the Heisman. He's not your typical unathletic white RB. And FWIW, Ryan Mathews and Justin Fargas are just as white as they are black.
Here are Toby's Vikings highlights:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IFSGIGp0-E
I don't see amazing speed or explosiveness there and his ability to elude tacklers in the second level leaves something to be desired, but he's a tank at 6'0" 230 with a strong lower body and he has
just enough hip flexibility/footwork to get by. For people who think he can't be a successful FF option, I'd challenge you to explain to me what exactly makes Eddie Lacy and LeVeon Bell superior talents. I don't think they're any better.
Draft position:
Bell - 48th overall
Lacy - 61st overall
Gerhart - 51st overall
College production:
Bell - 3346 rushing yards, 5.0 YPC, 531 receiving yards
Lacy - 2402 rushing yards, 6.8 YPC, 338 receiving yards
Gerhart - 3522 rushing yards, 5.2 YPC, 395 receiving yards
Workout numbers:
Height / Weight / BMI / 40 / Vertical / Broad Jump / Three Cone
Bell - 6' 1 3/8", 230 pounds, 30.0, 4.56 seconds, 31.5", 9'10", 6.75 seconds
Lacy - 5' 11", 231 pounds, 32.2, 4.64 seconds, 33.5", 9'7", 7.33 seconds
Gerhart - 6' 0", 231 pounds, 31.3, 4.50 seconds, 38", 9'10", 6.94 seconds
If you want to say "they just look better to me" then there's really nothing I can say to refute that, but in terms of the concrete tangibles there isn't much separating them. Lacy is a little thicker. Bell may be a little quicker. In terms of overall combine metrics, Gerhart might be the best of the trio though. The only real weakness on his workout resume is the 9'10" broad jump and that's still tied with Bell (who has the advantage of being 1+ inches taller).
The college production was similar. Lacy had a significantly higher career YPC, albeit for a better team on far fewer carries. Gerhart had a higher career YPC than Bell. Overall, I think you'd probably have to concede that their college careers were all pretty similar. All of them did very well and finished on a high note with a monster season before leaving school.
Then there's the draft spot. Gerhart was selected three spots lower than where Bell went and ten spots higher than where Lacy went. If you believe that draft position represents a decent approximation of the league's assessment of a given prospect's talent level, there's no significant difference between Gerhart and Bell/Lacy. His career NFL YPC is also higher with a much higher big run %, albeit mostly as a COOP back. If you limit the sample to only include the games that he started, he still has a 4.2 YPC lifetime compared to 4.0 for Lacy and 3.5 for Bell. The results are inconclusive, but nothing in their NFL performance suggests that the younger guys are better.
The Jaguars are a weak team, but in some ways that works in his favor. His competition for touches is minimal. And you don't need to be on a great team to yield solid FF stats. Neither the Bucs nor the Browns made the playoffs when Doug Martin and Trent Richardson put up top 10 ppg seasons as rookies. This past year we saw Zac Stacy and LeVeon Bell post strong FF numbers on weak NFL teams. The Rams were an absolute dumpster fire and yet it didn't matter. If you're the unquestioned lead back on an NFL team getting 15-20 touches per game, you're going to put up useful FF numbers and possibly very good FF numbers. That's just reality.
If you need every RB to be a world class talent and to be in a perfect situation for you to get excited about their short-term outlook, your cheatsheet is gonna have about 3 or 4 names on it every year. Gerhart isn't LeSean McCoy or Jamaal Charles. Then again, neither were Zac Stacy, LeVeon Bell, and Knowshon Moreno. You don't need to be a great RB to have FF value. The main thing you need is opportunity, and Gerhart has it in droves.
