Today April 7th 2025 is being projected as "Black Monday" (1 Viewer)

[Ministry of Pain]

Slightly different than the stocks thread
The news is hyping this as a catastrophic event today, the foreign markets were all plunging ahead of our market opening this morning

-Is there a floor in your mind we shouldn't cross?
Better question, is there a number like 32,000 or 35,000, is there a number on the Dow that would make you buckle vs just shaking your head so far?

What should people who do not participate daily except thru their work and retirement accounts, what can these folks do if anything?

Sincerely, if you want to just vent and cry and you don't make it political, be my guest. We'd love to hear from you
No judgements, no preaching, no snarky comments, just want folks to have a safe thread to get it out of their systems today
I have a bad feeling we are in for a rough ride for the foreseeable future
Obviously these tariffs are having a serious impact on the markets around the world, if it was to get everyone's attention, mission accomplished I would say

You certainly can take a jab/stab at me, I was being a goof and encouraging folks to buy buy buy the other day, let me explain what I really mean.
I certainly am not encouraging people to buy or sell stocks as they are free falling at a rate we haven't sen in a while and on multiple days, where is the floor here?
But I do think in general its a good time to gather up your cash reserves or move some money around.
Some folks are going to double down sorta speak at a certain point when the market is low and everyone says its the end of the world

-I have one thing to point out that didn't seem to come up much in the stocks thread. It was no secret that April 2nd was coming
There was a 30 day ramp up on car tariffs we knew was coming, there were announcements when it was around 44,000, this was not that big of a surprise but I guess it caught a lot of people off guard
And I assume even with that being put out there well ahead of time, there wasn't much some folks could do who are already "fully invested" or only invested thru their work compensation packages

If this was the week/month you were retiring and rolling all your assets into safer investments to use as mostly income for the remainder of your life, I'm guessing 44,000 down to 37,000 or below today in less than a week must have wiped out a big chunk of a lot of folks money

Let's hear from you, what say you?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

i've moved the hard liquor out on the top of the bar vs being tucked away underneath
Have the red wine close by, been trying to cut back on beer, not alcohol mind you, just the form it arrives in my belly
Certainly won't be a day for mimosas, Bloody Mary on the other hand might be appropriate

 

[The Longtime Lurker]

No technical analysis, no predictions, no advice. I went a little heavier into cash thanks to the great opinions in the stock thread. Unfortunately nibbled too soon and like everyone else wish i had a lot more. I never thought things would go as far as they have. I don't rattle easy, but today I am. Self inflicted wounds like this are stunning. Planning on battening down the hatches and riding it out, save money and cut spending where we can. Not sure what else there is to do. We've set ourselves up as good as possible i think. I really have no words.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

We're not here to point fingers at either party affiliation
There certainly is a ripple effect from Executive Orders that were never passed by Congress, we can all agree on that I hope.

But we don't need to use the "orange" as a lightning rod to vent, let's put him away and focus on the reality of what's happening.
Is there a silver lining because I have to say it feels like a trick, a way to quickly tank the market for whatever reason and wealthy liquid ready investors will jump in at whatever the number
I said 32,000 or 35,000 and maybe it's not until 28,000 but there seems like a number they want to work this down to and then run it back up to 40,000-45,000-50,000 and double/triple their money from the last time this happened when the pandemic broke out in Feb/March 2020

And that's because I don't trust anyone or anything I typically read on most platforms.
I do listen when someone says they are raising car tariffs 25% and it's coming straight from the horses mouth and not regurgitated with opinions attached

 

[rockaction]

There’s no way this thread works.

 

[AAABatteries]

Ride it out - not retiring for 10 years or so. Won’t really pay attention.

 

[Juxtatarot]

If you don’t need the money soon and stick with dollar cost averaging, eventually this will make you money. I highly doubt this is a event we never recover from.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

There’s no way this thread works.

We're going to try
We're going to open our arms and overlook a few folks
Nobody said anything unforgivable or terrible yet

I understand why folks are angry at a specific person that currently leads this country
Knowing what the rules are or lack of rules, how long can this free fall last? How foolish will folks feel when it sky rockets back?
Maybe it won't, maybe it will bottom out at 30,000 and stay there for a good long while

Typically in my lifetime when things look bleak is when things suddenly get brighter and you look back and think why didn't I have the courage to see thru the hysteria?

 

[fred_1_15301]

Ride it out - not retiring for 10 years or so. Won’t really pay attention.

This. Not touching my money anytime soon. No need to panic.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I didn't get this across very well the other day but I wanted to share this as it was in the news

Baby Boomers pay CASH for houses, a lot of them!
It keeps the youngsters out of buying homes they could likely afford because others come in with cash and scoop them up

Now if the Baby Boomers are driving the RE market with a flood of cash, they are not "fully invested" are they?
I was roasted for discussing large amounts of cash in places that can be easily accessed
I didn't realize it was such a terrible thing to have some of your portfolio in cash reserves ready to buy and sell
How about gold?

The value of cash is increasing by the minute right now, wouldn't you say?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

When markets crash then new investment typically stops, we can all sorta agree on that, right?
Small businesses - Large businesses will eventually lay people off so folks might lose their jobs because of this
The small entrepreneurs are the ones I feel are going to be pinched and hurt the most

-Sometimes it's good to show you have a backbone and will take things out to the end but what about a 30 day pause?
That sounds fair so everyone can get their footing again? Still probably won't help but maybe better deals can be negotiated and avoid some of this

 

[Johnnie Nepal]

i've moved the hard liquor out on the top of the bar vs being tucked away underneath
Have the red wine close by, been trying to cut back on beer, not alcohol mind you, just the form it arrives in my belly
Certainly won't be a day for mimosas, Bloody Mary on the other hand might be appropriate

It's National Beer Day, so if today is Black Monday then stouts for breakfast it shall be.
Skol!

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I think the best investment for many if you is a brown paper sack to breathe into.

 

[Senor Schmutzig]

I spoke to my financial advisor on Wednesday of last week, expressing my desire to retire within 5 years. Everything was looking good, money was in the right spot, projections looked favorable.

I wonder what that conversation would be like 5 days later?

I guess it wouldn't be THAT much different from his perspective but in my eyes, that initial five-year plan seems to have withered and died on the vine.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Can someone much smarter than myself please explain why it's unfair to tax countries the same amount they tax on our goods that we export?
Very basics and doesn't need to be political, keep it in the Economics lane, some of you are amazing at explaining these things to the rest of us

Why is it bad to have the same amount of tariffs on countries wanting to sell their goods here in America?
And please don't scream at us, we just want to understand why that basic theory is causing all this mayhem

 

[KarmaPolice]

I think the best investment for many if you is a brown paper sack to breathe into.

Nah, this is pretty serious stuff.

It always is.

NM. I deleted it. Have a good day, gb - see you in a movie thread instead!

 

[culdeus]

If you are a country that thrives on debt and also operates a fiat currency, the last thing you want to do is raise tarrifs. Any gdp contraction threatens a complete global financial system failure.

 

[culdeus]

Can someone much smarter than myself please explain why it's unfair to tax countries the same amount they tax on our goods that we export?
Very basics and doesn't need to be political, keep it in the Economics lane, some of you are amazing at explaining these things to the rest of us

Why is it bad to have the same amount of tariffs on countries wanting to sell their goods here in America?
And please don't scream at us, we just want to understand why that basic theory is causing all this mayhem

Let's take Cambodia. They make shoes. Pay is perhaps 0.78c/ hr and they work 60-90 hours a week making shoes.

As a government you need to raise money. Your people are making pennies. Your choice is tax your people or tax your goods going out.

Even with taxes on the way out of 20-30% the labor state is still likely under a buck an hour.

And yet somehow we are the ones getting ripped off.

You could say we are altruistic and trying to raise the working conditions of Cambodia shoe workers, but if you believe that well....

 

[TennesseeJed]

Just another manic Monday.

 

[Man In The Box]

Ride it out - not retiring for 10 years or so. Won’t really pay attention.

I have screen shotted this post to look at as a reminder. Hope you don’t mind. I may get it tattooed on my forearm.

 

[TennesseeJed]

Can someone much smarter than myself please explain why it's unfair to tax countries the same amount they tax on our goods that we export?
Very basics and doesn't need to be political, keep it in the Economics lane, some of you are amazing at explaining these things to the rest of us

Why is it bad to have the same amount of tariffs on countries wanting to sell their goods here in America?
And please don't scream at us, we just want to understand why that basic theory is causing all this mayhem

You don’t tax countries.

Virtually all taxes are ultimately borne by individual consumers.

So in its simplest terms these tariffs will be paid by American consumers in the form of higher prices for most goods. It’s a consumption tax that hits the hardest amongst those that can least afford it.

 

[Charlie Steiner]

Man looks in the abyss, there's nothing staring back at him. At that moment, man finds his character. And that is what keeps him out of the abyss.

Spoiler

Blue Horseshoe love Annacott Steel

 

[Ilov80s]

For most what else is there to do other than cross your fingers and wait it out. I doubt most of us have heaps of money to use this as some great buying opportunity. The most likely long term outcome is this makes the rich richer and results in more wealth transferred away from the average person.

 

[Ilov80s]

Can someone much smarter than myself please explain why it's unfair to tax countries the same amount they tax on our goods that we export?
Very basics and doesn't need to be political, keep it in the Economics lane, some of you are amazing at explaining these things to the rest of us

Why is it bad to have the same amount of tariffs on countries wanting to sell their goods here in America?
And please don't scream at us, we just want to understand why that basic theory is causing all this mayhem

That’s not at all what is happening right now

 

[Dezbelief]

Why is it bad to have the same amount of tariffs on countries wanting to sell their goods here in America?

That's not what's happening.

 

[Dezbelief]

The value of cash is increasing by the minute right now, wouldn't you say?

In times of inflation the opposite occurs.

 

[rockaction]

For most what else is there to do other than cross your fingers and wait it out. I doubt most of us have heaps of money to use this as some great buying opportunity. The most likely long term outcome is this makes the rich richer and results in more wealth transferred away from the average person.

Ironic in that I honestly do believe the intent is to save the American manufacturing industries and jobs for blue-collar workers.

But I suppose intent is unknowable and all we know will be the results of a course of action whose efficacy is up for debate.

 

[Ilov80s]

The tariffs we are imposing are based on trade deficits on goods (not factoring in services for reasons unknown). So MOP, this would be like saying you buy craft beer from a local brewery to sell at your store. You buy $100 of beer from him a month. But then you think about it and the guy who owns the brewery doesn’t shop at your store very often. He only comes in maybe once a month and spends $20. So you are running an $80 deficit with him. So you decide that’s not fair and you decide from now on whenever he shops at your store you are going to charge him an extra 40% to make up for the imbalance in your trade.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I hope the 49.8% who voted for him enjoy the collapse! This is a war of choice and economic malpractice.

The stock market isn't the economy.

 

[KarmaPolice]

For most what else is there to do other than cross your fingers and wait it out. I doubt most of us have heaps of money to use this as some great buying opportunity. The most likely long term outcome is this makes the rich richer and results in more wealth transferred away from the average person.

This is exactly it, unfortunately. It is also why so much of the population feels angry and hopeless.

To be clear, this is a general statement as i believe the 1% runs our country, not us. It just feels like the process was accelerated this year.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I hope the 49.8% who voted for him enjoy the collapse! This is a war of choice and economic malpractice.

Somebody report this please

Hopefully results in a timeout

Joe has been pretty clear

We're going to forgive this morning Trip
I understand your frustration, it was addressed immediately and he apologized, I think that's fair
We've got to be able to bend a little so we can help each other up today

 

[Ilov80s]

I hope the 49.8% who voted for him enjoy the collapse! This is a war of choice and economic malpractice.

The stock market isn't the economy.

Of course but if we have a recession in the stock market it’s going to cause people to lose jobs, spend less money, lose more jobs, etc. Not a guarantee but highly likely.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Can someone much smarter than myself please explain why it's unfair to tax countries the same amount they tax on our goods that we export?
Very basics and doesn't need to be political, keep it in the Economics lane, some of you are amazing at explaining these things to the rest of us

Why is it bad to have the same amount of tariffs on countries wanting to sell their goods here in America?
And please don't scream at us, we just want to understand why that basic theory is causing all this mayhem

You don’t tax countries.

Virtually all taxes are ultimately borne by individual consumers.

So in its simplest terms these tariffs will be paid by American consumers in the form of higher prices for most goods. It’s a consumption tax that hits the hardest amongst those that can least afford it.

Is that actually factual? Are there any other possible outcomes?
I'm just asking if that's what you believe based on real experiences
Thanks

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Can someone much smarter than myself please explain why it's unfair to tax countries the same amount they tax on our goods that we export?
Very basics and doesn't need to be political, keep it in the Economics lane, some of you are amazing at explaining these things to the rest of us

Why is it bad to have the same amount of tariffs on countries wanting to sell their goods here in America?
And please don't scream at us, we just want to understand why that basic theory is causing all this mayhem

That’s not at all what is happening right now

Do you think other people have the same POV that I posted?
I understand what you're saying but am I not speaking for a fairly large group of folks that maybe don't know any better?

 

[Dezbelief]

. I highly doubt this is a event we never recover from.

There is a possibility we might not. China, Japan and South Korea have decided to have a united response to the tariffs. They have agreed to free trade amongst themselves. These three countries have a tremendous amount of hate for one another. These countries have occupied and brutalized one another time and time again over the centuries. Hated enemies are now teamed together against the US.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

The tariffs we are imposing are based on trade deficits on goods (not factoring in services for reasons unknown). So MOP, this would be like saying you buy craft beer from a local brewery to sell at your store. You buy $100 of beer from him a month. But then you think about it and the guy who owns the brewery doesn’t shop at your store very often. He only comes in maybe once a month and spends $20. So you are running an $80 deficit with him. So you decide that’s not fair and you decide from now on whenever he shops at your store you are going to charge him an extra 40% to make up for the imbalance in your trade.

If I buy $100 of beer, am I not buying it to sell to my other customers, not so much the guy I bought the beer from, right?
This is fascinating and I love that you're explaining this in layman's terms

 

[FBG Moderator]

One time warning - Please keep politics out of the forum. Deleted a bunch that was well over the line.

 

[AAABatteries]

Ride it out - not retiring for 10 years or so. Won’t really pay attention.

I have screen shotted this post to look at as a reminder. Hope you don’t mind. I may get it tattooed on my forearm.

If you want a reminder I’m an idiot my wife puts out a newsletter.

 

[Desert_Power]

I think the best investment for many if you is a brown paper sack to breathe into.

Was it you who ran the Iraqi Information Minister alias back in the day?

 

[Don Quixote]

Can someone much smarter than myself please explain why it's unfair to tax countries the same amount they tax on our goods that we export?
Very basics and doesn't need to be political, keep it in the Economics lane, some of you are amazing at explaining these things to the rest of us

Why is it bad to have the same amount of tariffs on countries wanting to sell their goods here in America?
And please don't scream at us, we just want to understand why that basic theory is causing all this mayhem

As others have said, that is not how the rate was calculated. They based it on the trade deficit on goods (not including services, which is a major export). It is not based on the tariffs that other countries charge us.

Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Calculations Are Nonsense, Will Punish Mutually Beneficial Trade

If you tax trade, you get less of it—both imports and exports alike. Even a less-flawed version of Trump’s tariff plan would be unlikely to achieve its goals.

taxfoundation.org

First, the formula. The alleged “tariff rate” from each trading partner is fully a function of trade aggregates, specifically, the deficit divided by US imports, with a minimum of 10 percent. No factors discussed by the administration in these documents or anywhere else (like tariffs, digital services taxes, value-added taxes, or monetary policy) play any role.

For example, Singapore is a relatively free-trade-oriented country, while Brazil makes considerably more use of tariffs and other trade manipulations. However, both end up with the 10 percent rate because of their goods trade balances with the US. By contrast, Vietnam, which exports a great deal to the US but has also worked to make its policies amenable to the US, gets no credit for the effort.

The US response is generally half the alleged rate from other countries, though in some cases it appears to round up an extra percentage point beyond a simple halving.

 

[Cowboysfan8]

The most likely long term outcome is this makes the rich richer and results in more wealth transferred away from the average person.

It’s the American way

 

[Ministry of Pain]

For most what else is there to do other than cross your fingers and wait it out. I doubt most of us have heaps of money to use this as some great buying opportunity. The most likely long term outcome is this makes the rich richer and results in more wealth transferred away from the average person.

This is exactly it, unfortunately. It is also why so much of the population feels angry and hopeless.

To be clear, this is a general statement as i believe the 1% runs our country, not us. It just feels like the process was accelerated this year.

I'm with you on the 1%, I might stretch it out to something like 3-5% but I'll support you on 1%
And knowing that I try and figure out what they're doing vs feeling hopeless
I feel like the bat signal was sent out in Feb/Mar when the tariffs were first being talked about and threatened...hope I'm not using the word threatened wrong
It wasn't a complete surprise that these tariffs were implemented, they were announced ahead of time in my opinion
Not sure folks took it seriously and to some others points in here, not much most folks could do about it anyways, the 99%

Goos post KP

 

[El Floppo]

We have a kid heading to college in the fall and need to access his 529, which has been destroyed. We're ****ed.

Not just retirements being affected

 

[Ministry of Pain]

For most what else is there to do other than cross your fingers and wait it out. I doubt most of us have heaps of money to use this as some great buying opportunity. The most likely long term outcome is this makes the rich richer and results in more wealth transferred away from the average person.

That's definitely the heartbeat of this thread for most

Rich get richer

 

[Ilov80s]

The tariffs we are imposing are based on trade deficits on goods (not factoring in services for reasons unknown). So MOP, this would be like saying you buy craft beer from a local brewery to sell at your store. You buy $100 of beer from him a month. But then you think about it and the guy who owns the brewery doesn’t shop at your store very often. He only comes in maybe once a month and spends $20. So you are running an $80 deficit with him. So you decide that’s not fair and you decide from now on whenever he shops at your store you are going to charge him an extra 40% to make up for the imbalance in your trade.

If I buy $100 of beer, am I not buying it to sell to my other customers, not so much the guy I bought the beer from, right?
This is fascinating and I love that you're explaining this in layman's terms

Of course you are buying it to sell it. Just like Bob’s Car Dealer buys BMWs to sell on his lot or the grocery store buys Italian cheeses or a watch shop brings in some Swiss time piece. Or even a factory brings in foreign made parts to build their end product that is American made. Or Home Depot buys Canadian wood to sell or a coffee shop sells an Ethiopian blend.

Basically we are saying, those countries need to start buying more American made stuff (not services) in return or else we are going to make it really expensive for Americans to buy your products.

 

[culdeus]

The tariffs we are imposing are based on trade deficits on goods (not factoring in services for reasons unknown). So MOP, this would be like saying you buy craft beer from a local brewery to sell at your store. You buy $100 of beer from him a month. But then you think about it and the guy who owns the brewery doesn’t shop at your store very often. He only comes in maybe once a month and spends $20. So you are running an $80 deficit with him. So you decide that’s not fair and you decide from now on whenever he shops at your store you are going to charge him an extra 40% to make up for the imbalance in your trade.

If I buy $100 of beer, am I not buying it to sell to my other customers, not so much the guy I bought the beer from, right?
This is fascinating and I love that you're explaining this in layman's terms

Of course you are buying it to sell it. Just like Bob’s Car Dealer buys BMWs to sell on his lot or the grocery store buys Italian cheeses or a watch shop brings in some Swiss time piece. Or even a factory brings in foreign made parts to build their end product that is American made. Or Home Depot buys Canadian wood to sell or a coffee shop sells an Ethiopian blend.

Basically we are saying, those countries need to start buying more American made stuff (not services) in return or else we are going to make it really expensive for Americans to buy your products.

So they say no. We don't need your ****ty cars or soybeans and processed food. Now what?

 

[Andy Dufresne]

I think the best investment for many if you is a brown paper sack to breathe into.

Was it you who ran the Iraqi Information Minister alias back in the day?

I will let you bask in your illusion, American Infidel.

 

[Navin Johnson]

There’s no way this thread works.

The notion of keeping any economic discussion apolitical is borderline impossible in this current environment

 

[Juxtatarot]

There’s no way this thread works.

The notion of keeping any economic discussion apolitical is borderline impossible in this current environment

And yet, at the same time, it’s easy to do.

 

[rockaction]

There’s no way this thread works.

The notion of keeping any economic discussion apolitical is borderline impossible in this current environment

There are a lot of topics and subjects that are impossible to discuss. Every student even adjacently studying law is inevitably thinking about questions regarding due process and habeas corpus.

Every traveler has to be apprised of the ramifications of and procedures for leaving and attempting to re-enter the country.

When the politics aren’t limited or are radical and transformative it touches everything.