Today's Draft Grades are ultimately meaningless (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

I am as guilty as anyone else in trying to evaluate and "grade" the draft. But I also think it's important to remember that today's "best drafts" are tomorrow's flame outs and vice versa.In 2007, when the Eagles took Kevin Kolb 36th, it was UNIVERSALLY mocked (myself included). Here is Kiper's recap of that draft:

Then, the Eagles used the 36th overall pick (their first pick in the draft) on Houston QB Kevin Kolb when QBs Drew Stanton, John Beck and Trent Edwards were all still on the board.

Now, at the time, most would've agreed with Kiper. All the draftniks thought Kolb was below some or all of those other QBs. But three years later, Kolb is the starter in Philly, expected to be productive right away by most, and Stanton, Beck and Edwards are uncompelling QB2s at best.

 

[Jason Wood]

In 2007, the highest CONSENSUS post-draft grades were:

(Out of 5.0):

1) Cleveland Browns -- 4.0

2) San Francisco 49ers -- 3.7

3) Oakland Raiders -- 3.5

4) Arizona Cardinals -- 3.4

5) Atlanta Falcons -- 3.4

That same year the consensus WORST post-draft grades were:

(Out of 5.0):

32) Washington Redskins -- 1.2

31) Seattle Seahawks -- 1.6

30) Tennessee Titans -- 1.7

29) Philadelphia Eagles -- 1.8

28) Miami Dolphins -- 1.9

 

[Jason Wood]

The Browns were the RUNAWAY pick for best drafters in 2007.

Joe Thomas

Brady Quinn

Eric Wright

Brandon McDonald

Melila Purcell

Chase Pittman

Yeah, I'm guessing the draftniks would like to have that analysis back.

San Francisco got the 2nd highest grade:

Patrick Willis

Joe Staley

Jason Hill

Ray McDonald

Jay Moore

Dashon Goldson

Joe Cohen

Tarell Brown

Thomas Clayton

Oakland Raiders came in 3rd

JaMarcus Russell

Zach Miller

Quentin Moses

Mario Henderson

Johnnie Lee Higgins

Michael Bush

Jay Richardson

Eric Frampton

Orenthal O'Neal

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

I am as guilty as anyone else in trying to evaluate and "grade" the draft. But I also think it's important to remember that today's "best drafts" are tomorrow's flame outs and vice versa.In 2007, when the Eagles took Kevin Kolb 36th, it was UNIVERSALLY mocked (myself included). Here is Kiper's recap of that draft:

Then, the Eagles used the 36th overall pick (their first pick in the draft) on Houston QB Kevin Kolb when QBs Drew Stanton, John Beck and Trent Edwards were all still on the board.

Now, at the time, most would've agreed with Kiper. All the draftniks thought Kolb was below some or all of those other QBs. But three years later, Kolb is the starter in Philly, expected to be productive right away by most, and Stanton, Beck and Edwards are uncompelling QB2s at best.

Kolb has not done anything yet... He may be better than Edwards ....He may not be.... This is not something I would poke fun at .

 

[Honda]

I am as guilty as anyone else in trying to evaluate and "grade" the draft. But I also think it's important to remember that today's "best drafts" are tomorrow's flame outs and vice versa.In 2007, when the Eagles took Kevin Kolb 36th, it was UNIVERSALLY mocked (myself included). Here is Kiper's recap of that draft:

Then, the Eagles used the 36th overall pick (their first pick in the draft) on Houston QB Kevin Kolb when QBs Drew Stanton, John Beck and Trent Edwards were all still on the board.

Now, at the time, most would've agreed with Kiper. All the draftniks thought Kolb was below some or all of those other QBs. But three years later, Kolb is the starter in Philly, expected to be productive right away by most, and Stanton, Beck and Edwards are uncompelling QB2s at best.

Reminds me of an old Bill & Hillary joke:

Bill and Hillary Clinton were walking the halls of the White House when bill spotted a janitor doing his work. He said to Hill "Hey babe, just think, if you'd married that guy you'd be the wife of a janitor." She replied "No Bill. If I'd married him he'd be President."

I'm thinking that if Stanton, Beck, and Edwards had gone to the Eagles instead of their respective teams that they'd have had an increased chance at success. That's not to say that the Eagles didn't make the right choice in Beck, though.

 

[Wadsworth]

About a year ago Mel Kiper was lampooning the Jags for taking Derek Cox and Terrance Knighton in the 3rd round. Mel went as far as to call Cox almost undraftable and said he had him rated as the 106th best CB. All they did was start every game and play well for the Jags.

The draft is fun, but you really don't know much about who "won" for years.

 

[Mainevent]

The Browns were the RUNAWAY pick for best drafters in 2007.

Brady Quinn

Eric Wright

Brandon McDonald

Melila Purcell

Chase Pittman

Didn't they take Joe Thomas too?

 

[allnight33]

The Browns were the RUNAWAY pick for best drafters in 2007.

Brady Quinn

Eric Wright

Brandon McDonald

Melila Purcell

Chase Pittman

Yeah, I'm guessing the draftniks would like to have that analysis back.

San Francisco got the 2nd highest grade:

Patrick Willis

Joe Staley

Jason Hill

Ray McDonald

Jay Moore

Dashon Goldson

Joe Cohen

Tarell Brown

Thomas Clayton

Oakland Raiders came in 3rd

JaMarcus Russell

Zach Miller

Quentin Moses

Mario Henderson

Johnnie Lee Higgins

Michael Bush

Jay Richardson

Eric Frampton

Orenthal O'Neal

I agree at the time that Cleveland was the runaway winners back then, but your post analysis of the Cleveland '07 draft is missing one giant piece in the form of the best left tackle in football named JOE THOMAS.

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

I am as guilty as anyone else in trying to evaluate and "grade" the draft. But I also think it's important to remember that today's "best drafts" are tomorrow's flame outs and vice versa.In 2007, when the Eagles took Kevin Kolb 36th, it was UNIVERSALLY mocked (myself included). Here is Kiper's recap of that draft:

Then, the Eagles used the 36th overall pick (their first pick in the draft) on Houston QB Kevin Kolb when QBs Drew Stanton, John Beck and Trent Edwards were all still on the board.

Now, at the time, most would've agreed with Kiper. All the draftniks thought Kolb was below some or all of those other QBs. But three years later, Kolb is the starter in Philly, expected to be productive right away by most, and Stanton, Beck and Edwards are uncompelling QB2s at best.

Kolb has not done anything yet... He may be better than Edwards ....He may not be.... This is not something I would poke fun at .

My thoughts exactly.

 

[Donnybrook]

I agree at the time that Cleveland was the runaway winners back then, but your post analysis of the Cleveland '07 draft is missing one giant piece in the form of the best left tackle in football named JOE THOMAS.

 

[Todem]

Wait 3 years...then you know whats up.

 

[Jason Wood]

Yep...Joe Thomas was a Freudian slip there. My bad

I'll insert him into the original post.

 

[massraider]

What we should actually do is bump the threads from 3 years ago, just to see how full of crap we all are.

Also, as a fan of the team that took Heyward-Bey last year, there is not nearly enough crap being heaped on Jax this year. Let's get on this people.

 

[BassNBrew]

So are your dynasty rankings. At least i'm not paying for the meaningless draft grades.

 

[Jason Wood]

I'm trying not to focus on the more recent drafts because the players drafted still have time to prove their ultimate value.

Here are some thoughts from the 2006 post-draft:

2006 Baltimore Ravens (B+ Consensus)

The Ravens did a really good job of addressing needs effectively. Their first-round pick, DT Haloti Ngata, will help right away on the interior of the line and, they hope, will free up MLB Ray Lewis. Chris Chester will help on the offensive line, and David Pittman is an ideal nickel defensive back. On the second day, the Ravens helped themselves with WR Demetrius Williams, RB P.J. Daniels, TE Quinn Sypniewski and OLB Ryan LaCasse of Syracuse, who will be a good special-teams player.

2006 New York Giants (C Consensus)

DE Mathias Kiwanuka was a reach late in the first round, but he will get a chance to learn from Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora. Getting WR Sinorice Moss in the second round was one of the best picks in the draft; he could be the deep threat the Giants' offense needs. Guy Whimper is a versatile offensive lineman and could have gone higher than the fourth round.

2006 New England Patriots (B Consensus)

Laurence Maroney, selected at No. 21, gives the Patriots a security blanket at running back. WR Chad Jackson was a nice pick in the second round and could have gone in the middle of the first. TE Dave Thomas has excellent hands, while Garret Mills might be more of a fullback. Kicker Stephen Gostkowski was a reach in the fourth round (I didn't think any kickers would get drafted). New England had a great first day and a good second day.

 

[Jason Wood]

So are your dynasty rankings. At least i'm not paying for the meaningless draft grades.

Huh? Are you saying that projecting dynasty is near impossible? Because I won't argue with you on that. But I assume then when you say "your" you mean "Footballguys", because last time I checked I'm not a guy who focuses on dynasty, nor did I say I was.

 

[GoFishTN]

Why do people feel the need to point this out? Does anyone not know this?

 

[werdnoynek]

Why do people feel the need to point this out? Does anyone not know this?

i assume this is the first thread you've read this morning.

 

[GoFishTN]

Why do people feel the need to point this out? Does anyone not know this?

i assume this is the first thread you've read this morning.

Good point.

 

[Jason Wood]

Why do people feel the need to point this out? Does anyone not know this?

Because perspective matters. Last night people were losing their minds about Denver, or Buffalo, or Jacksonville, and decrying their ineptitude, while simultaneously praising Dallas or Baltimore or Detroit. And at the moment, because we only have the benefit of draft grades and what we've been told were the projected values of each college prospect, it seems perfectly logical. But in three, four, five years....many teams that looked mediocre will look amazing, many of the "best" will prove to have sucked, and everything in between.Saying "we know this already" is like saying we shouldn't bother watching the draft because ultimately we have no idea if these players will help our team or not. It's all part of the same process. Get excited. Be critical. But don't lose sleep over it. I know friends and fans that are practically ready to commit seppuku based on one draft pick by their team, and others that are convinced they've now driven a path to the Super Bowl. A little perspective is never a bad thing.

 

[werdnoynek]

Why do people feel the need to point this out? Does anyone not know this?

Because perspective matters. Last night people were losing their minds about Denver, or Buffalo, or Jacksonville, and decrying their ineptitude, while simultaneously praising Dallas or Baltimore or Detroit. And at the moment, because we only have the benefit of draft grades and what we've been told were the projected values of each college prospect, it seems perfectly logical. But in three, four, five years....many teams that looked mediocre will look amazing, many of the "best" will prove to have sucked, and everything in between.Saying "we know this already" is like saying we shouldn't bother watching the draft because ultimately we have no idea if these players will help our team or not. It's all part of the same process. Get excited. Be critical. But don't lose sleep over it. I know friends and fans that are practically ready to commit seppuku based on one draft pick by their team, and others that are convinced they've now driven a path to the Super Bowl. A little perspective is never a bad thing.

the sky isn't falling.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

As I mentioned yesterday, Matt Millen and the Lions were praised for their 2002 (Joey Harrington) and 2003 (Charles Rogers) drafts.

 

[BassNBrew]

So are your dynasty rankings. At least i'm not paying for the meaningless draft grades.

Huh? Are you saying that projecting dynasty is near impossible? Because I won't argue with you on that. But I assume then when you say "your" you mean "Footballguys", because last time I checked I'm not a guy who focuses on dynasty, nor did I say I was.

Yup...I just find it amusing for you to be on this soapbox when fantasy football dynasty rankings are basically the same thing. I think we know to take all of this with a grain of salt and that the value is more in the entertainment of discussing the NFL.