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Todd Heap: Sleeper or Stay Asleep? (1 Viewer)

Ministry of Pain

Ministry of Pain

Footballguy
Was not a huge target factor however I noticed he was actually running pass patterns. Last year he stayed in and blocked a lot, this season it appears so far that he is running routes. He also lined up in 4 wide formations which I liked. Flacco has a big arm, certainly Heap is a guy that can run some deeper TE routes. Here is a short list of reasons I think he can rebound some.

1. The past 2 seasons he has not been very healthy. For whatever reason he has been breaking down but I think Heap is one of the tougher TEs in the league. Assuming he is healthy he has to put up better numbers. Last season it seemed every week he was questionable or doubful yet he did appear in all 16 games.

2. Those with short memories should look and see that from 2002-2006 Heap was a top 5 TE 4 out of 5 seasons...in fact he was #1-2002, #3-2003/2005, and #4-2006 so this isn't a guy that as never done it before. We're not asking for him to step up when we aren't sure if he really can. Everyone talks about McMichael and he is rated #12 in the FBG rankings(PPR) but he has never done it in St Louis...he was OK in Miami but why are we that high on McMichael?

3. Joe Flacco is going to be better this year. Matt Ryan is getting a lot of praise but I believe Flacco can also take the steps to get to the next level. Last year he was a rookie with a top3 defense so he simply managed the games. I look for Cam Cameron to open up the playbook as the season rolls along.

4. How old do you think Todd Heap is? 32, 33, 34...he actually is 29 and won't turn 30 till next March. He isn't that old and despite the heavy injuries he has sustained the past couple years it is possible he has healed and can be productive.

I'm not expecting miracles but LJ Smith is hurt right now and he has very little pushing him plus Baltimore is a bit of a mystery at the WR2, so he should fill in nicely. The other night as I wrote, Heap was running pass patterns not pass blocking. I think he should easily out perform his ADP, and I also think the #29 ranking in terms of projections is pretty off unless he is injured all season again.

45-50 receptions...500-600 yds, and 4-6 TDs...he had 3 last year. This would put him at about the 10-15 range in PPR leagues and I think he could do even more if Cam calls his number. We are talking about a guy you can grab fairly late too.

Your thoughts?

 
My other thought would be there are a lot of Tier 2/3/4 TEs who don't have much separation between them.

With tremendous upside players like Keller and Z. Miller going late, I cannot fathom taking a flier on Heap.

I guess if you had mandatory TE backups or play in a 16-teamer he is relevant (kinda sorta but alsonotreally).

 
BobbyLayne said:
My other thought would be there are a lot of Tier 2/3/4 TEs who don't have much separation between them.With tremendous upside players like Keller and Z. Miller going late, I cannot fathom taking a flier on Heap.I guess if you had mandatory TE backups or play in a 16-teamer he is relevant (kinda sorta but alsonotreally).
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Keller and Z miller don't go very late in any drafts I have been in over the summer and up thru this week...Heap generally comes off the board when we are talking about guys like Jermichael Finley, Martellus Bennett, Chris Baker, just saying that I think he has a much bigger upside over some of these other TEs. Rookies such as Jared Cook are going before Heap.
 
I hear ya on the Jared Cook thing, but I no longer play in 20-25 man roster leagues. In 15-16 x 12 leagues, backup TEs are #### on a bull.

Miller and Keller are TE10 and TE12 (ADP 119 and 127). Do we have a semantic difference on what is considered going late? Shockey is in between them and Shiancoe is after them (but rising). Just sayin'....whole lotta depth available at that position this year.

Boss/Scheffler/Celek/H. Miller/V. Davis...all these names are guys I would trust (on a relative basis) more than the oft-injuried Heap.

 
Really, I've been giving him some thought over the last couple days, especially with L.J. Smith looking like such a puddy tat. In a 24 man roster, start 10 PPR league, I'd like to trade away some TE depth in a package deal and take a guy like Heap as a backup. I gotchyo back, bro.

 
Heap is likely the more durable option compared to Smith. I think with the opening up of the offense, he could be a decent sleeper.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
BobbyLayne said:
My other thought would be there are a lot of Tier 2/3/4 TEs who don't have much separation between them.With tremendous upside players like Keller and Z. Miller going late, I cannot fathom taking a flier on Heap.I guess if you had mandatory TE backups or play in a 16-teamer he is relevant (kinda sorta but alsonotreally).
Click to expand...
Keller and Z miller don't go very late in any drafts I have been in over the summer and up thru this week...Heap generally comes off the board when we are talking about guys like Jermichael Finley, Martellus Bennett, Chris Baker, just saying that I think he has a much bigger upside over some of these other TEs. Rookies such as Jared Cook are going before Heap.
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I would honestly take Martellus Bennett and Jermichael Finley before Heap. Bennett and Finley both have nice upside to them. I would still look at Heap as a #2 TE very late, but would likely pass.
 
stevegamer said:
Heap is likely the more durable option compared to Smith. I think with the opening up of the offense, he could be a decent sleeper.
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MOP, I happen to agree with your thoughts, and am leaning toward Heap as a late sleeper while others pile on with Marcellus Bennett and rookies that are still learning the ropes. From a situational perspective it is an obvious choice, it's just the injury risk you have to factor in. Let someone else take Shockey or Bennett and hope to pick their couple of big games to play them. Heap is more likely a solid play assuming he is healthy.
 
Yes, the Baltimore offense will be much more normal this year and Heap will be running more routes. Between Mason, Heap, Clayton, Rice, and company the ball is probably going to be spread around more so than in the past but Heap does represent tremendous value right now. He's going much later than guys with comparible upsides.

 
I've been bitten by the Todd Heap injury bug once too often to have any faith in him. He was picked way too early in my most recent draft to even give it any consideration. Even when healthy last year, he was not an every down TE and didn't seem to be targeted much, especially in the red zone.

 
I think he is a great pick this year for a couple of reasons. I have done a bunch of mocks and in 12 teamers, he is going in the 20+ range. On the FBG Experts rankings he is in the 20+ range too. Basically, you can get a top tier guy and wait for a while and get him as your backup, or you can wait altogether, draft one of the top 12-13 (personally, I feel there is a drop after that group) and hope for some upside.

The other reason I like him is because I DON'T believe Flacco will show much progression this year in passing numbers. He has the same WR corps (just a year older) and I also feel that because Flacco has some "wiggle", he is going to lean on Heap.

For guys like Marino and Bledsoe, when the D was closing in, they either threw it away, or attempted the pass. Flacco had just enough success last year in the running game, that it would not surprise me at all if he becomes a little bit of a scrambler....think Vick and Crumpler or Cunningham and Jackson. Heap could be the beneficiary of those quick dump offs when Flacco is outside the pocket. Just speculating, but really, heap is no gamble at all at his current ADP.

 
I think if you're in a 14 or 16 teamer, or if you have very deep rosters (like 20+) - then Heap is a good guy to get with a very late pick. Most leagues where you have 12 teams and 16 rounds - it's not worth having a back-up TE on your roster. He is a guy I will be keeping an eye on though - if he's getting good targets in early weeks I might pick him up.

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Was not a huge target factor however I noticed he was actually running pass patterns. Last year he stayed in and blocked a lot, this season it appears so far that he is running routes. He also lined up in 4 wide formations which I liked. Flacco has a big arm, certainly Heap is a guy that can run some deeper TE routes. Here is a short list of reasons I think he can rebound some. 1. The past 2 seasons he has not been very healthy. For whatever reason he has been breaking down but I think Heap is one of the tougher TEs in the league. Assuming he is healthy he has to put up better numbers. Last season it seemed every week he was questionable or doubful yet he did appear in all 16 games. 2. Those with short memories should look and see that from 2002-2006 Heap was a top 5 TE 4 out of 5 seasons...in fact he was #1-2002, #3-2003/2005, and #4-2006 so this isn't a guy that as never done it before. We're not asking for him to step up when we aren't sure if he really can. Everyone talks about McMichael and he is rated #12 in the FBG rankings(PPR) but he has never done it in St Louis...he was OK in Miami but why are we that high on McMichael? 3. Joe Flacco is going to be better this year. Matt Ryan is getting a lot of praise but I believe Flacco can also take the steps to get to the next level. Last year he was a rookie with a top3 defense so he simply managed the games. I look for Cam Cameron to open up the playbook as the season rolls along. 4. How old do you think Todd Heap is? 32, 33, 34...he actually is 29 and won't turn 30 till next March. He isn't that old and despite the heavy injuries he has sustained the past couple years it is possible he has healed and can be productive. I'm not expecting miracles but LJ Smith is hurt right now and he has very little pushing him plus Baltimore is a bit of a mystery at the WR2, so he should fill in nicely. The other night as I wrote, Heap was running pass patterns not pass blocking. I think he should easily out perform his ADP, and I also think the #29 ranking in terms of projections is pretty off unless he is injured all season again. 45-50 receptions...500-600 yds, and 4-6 TDs...he had 3 last year. This would put him at about the 10-15 range in PPR leagues and I think he could do even more if Cam calls his number. We are talking about a guy you can grab fairly late too.Your thoughts?
Click to expand...
You provided great trend analysis (although 2004 info. is missing...what was he ranked that year?). The trends show he has been going down in fantasy productivity consistently every year since 2002. Even if he rebounds from bad fantasty production in 2007&2008, what is his high side that gives him sleeper status? #5-8 TE?? Unless he has potential to be a top 3 TE again (appears to be zero chance, even though Flaco is the best QB Baltimore's had in Heap's tenure), then I say let him sleep or take him late in a draft, but certainly don't reach for him.
 
bcr8f said:
Leonard Henry -2 Yds said:
Please for the love of God/Allah/Jesus/Zoroaster/Shiva/Buddha/Science avoid Todd Heap? Same with Vernon Davis if he's next on your list
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Someone mentioning Zoroaster on a fantasy board. I like it.
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I was impressed myself... Not many Zoroastrians around...
 
This is a high risk maybe high reward guy. I got him on a throw in on a trade in a dynasty salary cap league. If I cut him I eat his salary. I have Winslow and Shiancoe and him sitting there as my third. i will probably never start the guy all season. But if he does perform well, he's great as trade bait for someone making a run. And if you don't have depth and he's your #2 and does well then you are golden. If you don't have depth and he's done, well then you pretty much give away the TE points the week your starter is on bye.

So, is there value for this guy? Definitely as a 3rd TE. Possibly as a 2nd TE. And if he's your first then start praying to Zoroaster now...

 
Hmm do I got for 3 straight years of Heap messing up my $35k entry? Don't think so...

That said I guess it kinda depends on how readily available an injury replacement would be as to whether I might take a very late round chance with him. If it's easy to cut bait on him if he's not working out he turns into a boom/bust concept. I probably like other guys in that neighborhood better but as min-investment guy, sure why not?

-QG

 
In the Panthers' 2008 season opener against the Chargers on September 7th, Rosario overcame double coverage to catch a 14-yard touchdown pass in the back of the end zone as time expired, to give Carolina a 26-24 victory against the heavily favored San Diego Chargers. It is considered to be one of the most memorable catches in Carolina Panther history. When the game ended, Fox's final statistics leaderboard for the game mistakenly displayed the name of actress Rosario Dawson. He finished the 2008 season with 18 catches for 209 yards and 1 touchdown.

- Wikipedia

 
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Leonard Henry -2 Yds said:
In the Panthers' 2008 season opener against the Chargers on September 7th, Rosario overcame double coverage to catch a 14-yard touchdown pass in the back of the end zone as time expired, to give Carolina a 26-24 victory against the heavily favored San Diego Chargers. It is considered to be one of the most memorable catches in Carolina Panther history. When the game ended, Fox's final statistics leaderboard for the game mistakenly displayed the name of actress Rosario Dawson. He finished the 2008 season with 18 catches for 209 yards and 1 touchdown.- Wikipedia
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Grabbed him off the WW and promptly traded him for a second rounder.... I know, I know, nobody cares about my team. :confused:
 
Heap was on pace to catch over 60 balls in 2007 and over 70 in 2004.

The only bad fantasy seasons were his rookie year and Flacco's rookie year where they ran a lot of power formations. It will be a balanced offense this year, not like last year. If Rice is starting, they might even throw a lot like they are in the preseason. The offensive line and Flacco both look much improved.

 
UnknownCoach said:
Heap was on pace to catch over 60 balls in 2007 and over 70 in 2004.The only bad fantasy seasons were his rookie year and Flacco's rookie year where they ran a lot of power formations. It will be a balanced offense this year, not like last year. If Rice is starting, they might even throw a lot like they are in the preseason. The offensive line and Flacco both look much improved.
Click to expand...
Agreed. This place is absolutely amazing. Heap is not even 30 years old, has 4 top5 finishes under his belt, had an injury riddled season and then a rookie Flacco last year who looks very improved this season, but let's not talk about him. I'm not saying Heap is top5, top10...but he could easily pop into the top12-15 just because the Ravens have no reliable WR2 right now. WHen is the last time you saw a guy Mason's age tearing it up and catchign this many balls in the preseason. They want his chemistry with Flacco to flourish, and this allows Heap to roam around in the 10-15 yd range where he can just cut up a defense as we have seen int he past.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Ministry of Pain said:
Was not a huge target factor however I noticed he was actually running pass patterns. Last year he stayed in and blocked a lot, this season it appears so far that he is running routes. He also lined up in 4 wide formations which I liked. Flacco has a big arm, certainly Heap is a guy that can run some deeper TE routes. Here is a short list of reasons I think he can rebound some. 1. The past 2 seasons he has not been very healthy. For whatever reason he has been breaking down but I think Heap is one of the tougher TEs in the league. Assuming he is healthy he has to put up better numbers. Last season it seemed every week he was questionable or doubful yet he did appear in all 16 games. 2. Those with short memories should look and see that from 2002-2006 Heap was a top 5 TE 4 out of 5 seasons...in fact he was #1-2002, #3-2003/2005, and #4-2006 so this isn't a guy that as never done it before. We're not asking for him to step up when we aren't sure if he really can. Everyone talks about McMichael and he is rated #12 in the FBG rankings(PPR) but he has never done it in St Louis...he was OK in Miami but why are we that high on McMichael? 3. Joe Flacco is going to be better this year. Matt Ryan is getting a lot of praise but I believe Flacco can also take the steps to get to the next level. Last year he was a rookie with a top3 defense so he simply managed the games. I look for Cam Cameron to open up the playbook as the season rolls along. 4. How old do you think Todd Heap is? 32, 33, 34...he actually is 29 and won't turn 30 till next March. He isn't that old and despite the heavy injuries he has sustained the past couple years it is possible he has healed and can be productive. I'm not expecting miracles but LJ Smith is hurt right now and he has very little pushing him plus Baltimore is a bit of a mystery at the WR2, so he should fill in nicely. The other night as I wrote, Heap was running pass patterns not pass blocking. I think he should easily out perform his ADP, and I also think the #29 ranking in terms of projections is pretty off unless he is injured all season again. 45-50 receptions...500-600 yds, and 4-6 TDs...he had 3 last year. This would put him at about the 10-15 range in PPR leagues and I think he could do even more if Cam calls his number. We are talking about a guy you can grab fairly late too.Your thoughts?
Click to expand...
One of my partners is a Ravens season ticket holder and notoriously skeptical about their fantasy prospects each year. Well, for the first time in our 10 years working together he keeps telling me to take a harder look at Todd Heap. So I did. And I tend to agree with MOP and my partner. :football:
 
Good call, MoP. Nice breakdown as well. If I'd of seen this thread before draft day, I might of taken a harder look. Hope he pans out for you.

 
I did in an auction league as a backup to Tony Gonzalez, mainly because of this post. Thanks! Maybe I can ship him for help elsewhere.

 
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