Tom Brady, all the makings of a bounce back year (1 Viewer)

[kdt]

way more weapons than 07 and knee should be fine. last year was somewhat a down year yet it was still a decent season. looks like hes ready to bounce back.

then i look at his schedule. BRUTAL! one site ranks the schedule as 31st most friendly to QBs. meaning 2nd toughest.

thoughts?

 

[Chase Stuart]

way more weapons than 07 and knee should be fine. last year was somewhat a down year yet it was still a decent season. looks like hes ready to bounce back.

then i look at his schedule. BRUTAL! one site ranks the schedule as 31st most friendly to QBs. meaning 2nd toughest.

thoughts?

Last year wasn't a down year for Brady at all, outside of his schedule. Take away his games against the three toughest fantasy defenses in the NFL (the Jets, Bills and Panthers), along with his half-game against Houston, and he scored 258 FP in his remaining 10 games. That 25.8 FP/G average comes in just a hair behind what Rodgers did last year (26.1).

 

[Chase Stuart]

way more weapons than 07 and knee should be fine. last year was somewhat a down year yet it was still a decent season. looks like hes ready to bounce back.

then i look at his schedule. BRUTAL! one site ranks the schedule as 31st most friendly to QBs. meaning 2nd toughest.

thoughts?

Last year wasn't a down year for Brady at all, outside of his schedule. Take away his games against the three toughest fantasy defenses in the NFL (the Jets, Bills and Panthers), along with his half-game against Houston, and he scored 258 FP in his remaining 10 games. That 25.8 FP/G average comes in just a hair behind what Rodgers did last year (26.1).

Of course, he does play the Jets and the Bills again this year, including a potentially ugly game @Buffalo in week 16.

 

[David Yudkin]

Ignoring 2007, Brady scored 22 more fantasy points than in any other season. His ranking was lower because so many QBs had big numbers.

 

[captain_amazing]

Of course, he does play the Jets and the Bills again this year, including a potentially ugly game @Buffalo in week 16.

Oh...and it will be ugly! (need an emoticon shivering with snow and wind pouring in)

 

[Clifton]

Wouldn't worry about Tom. Tom doesn't care about tough schedules. He wins Super Bowls and beds supermodels and actresses. He just signed a high dollar extension and he's sporting a 70's porn haircut. I'd say he's a lock for a minimum QB4.

 

[Brady Gaga]

I think all 3 of his playoff games will be snow games @ CHI, vs. GB, @ BUF (nice vacation schedule).

That said, Brady has had only two healthy years with Moss - 2007 (50 TDs) and 2009 (28 TDs). And 2009 was a recovery from ACL year. Take that average between 50 and 28 and you've got an awesome fantasy season.

Not sure it's that easy but it could be. And you gotta like the addition of the two rookie TEs and a healthy Brandon Tate (who will be their 2011 WR1).

 

[kdt]

anyone anxious about the snow games? iremember in 07 those turned out poorly. draft and trade midseason looks like a possiblity for me.

 

[timschochet]

anyone anxious about the snow games? iremember in 07 those turned out poorly. draft and trade midseason looks like a possiblity for me.

The guy who owned Brady and Moss in my league in 07 was undefeated until December; then he lost in the semifinals. Lesson learned: do not start a QB in the snow in December. If he is your elite player, trade him before that week.

 

[ponchsox]

Brady and the Pats did fine in the snow against Tennessee last year. Another reason I avoid taking a QB in the first or second round is if they sit week 16 and or 17 during fantasy playoffs. Albeit I see Brady throwing 35 TDs this year.

 

[EBF]

People never should've expected him to repeat that miracle 2007 season. It was obviously a flukish career year in which the perfect storm of situational factors inflated Brady's numbers. I feel pretty comfortable saying that he will never reach that level again. Can he still be a top 3 QB? It's definitely possible. I don't know if Moss and Welker will be able to perform at an elite level this year though and I don't know if the other options will add enough value to compensate.

 

[KGB]

anyone anxious about the snow games? iremember in 07 those turned out poorly. draft and trade midseason looks like a possiblity for me.

The guy who owned Brady and Moss in my league in 07 was undefeated until December; then he lost in the semifinals. Lesson learned: do not start a QB in the snow in December. If he is your elite player, trade him before that week.

 

[David Yudkin]

anyone anxious about the snow games? iremember in 07 those turned out poorly. draft and trade midseason looks like a possiblity for me.

In 30 career games under 40 degrees, Brady has averaged:233.4 passing yards, 1.67 TD, and 0.7 INT. That's basically very similar to his other numbers. The only exception would be games over 80 degrees where he's really gone off (273.3/2.31/0.69).

 

[kdt]

QUITE interesting stats to look up!

 

[ROBOPUNTER]

anyone anxious about the snow games? iremember in 07 those turned out poorly. draft and trade midseason looks like a possiblity for me.

In 30 career games under 40 degrees, Brady has averaged:233.4 passing yards, 1.67 TD, and 0.7 INT. That's basically very similar to his other numbers. The only exception would be games over 80 degrees where he's really gone off (273.3/2.31/0.69).

Freezing doesn't mean snow. But it seems to me that the idea that snow = bad passing game doesn't mean as much as it used to. I remember a few recent games where there was respectable passing numbers. Has anyone collected data on this?

 

[Clifton]

I think all 3 of his playoff games will be snow games @ CHI, vs. GB, @ BUF (nice vacation schedule).

That said, Brady has had only two healthy years with Moss - 2007 (50 TDs) and 2009 (28 TDs). And 2009 was a recovery from ACL year. Take that average between 50 and 28 and you've got an awesome fantasy season.

Not sure it's that easy but it could be. And you gotta like the addition of the two rookie TEs and a healthy Brandon Tate (who will be their 2011 WR1).

They're not going to let Moss walk unless he starts demanding a high dollar multi year contract. I could see them giving him 2 years possibly or a high dollar one year deal. Not sure he'd take that though. He's old and like playing for a contender. No solidly built, contending franchise is going to give Moss 3 years. He's got it good in NE. I also think Brady has some say in the situation. He cried about his tools when they lost to the Colts in the AFC Championship game in 2006 and they came back with Moss and Welker.

 

[David Yudkin]

anyone anxious about the snow games? iremember in 07 those turned out poorly. draft and trade midseason looks like a possiblity for me.

In 30 career games under 40 degrees, Brady has averaged:233.4 passing yards, 1.67 TD, and 0.7 INT. That's basically very similar to his other numbers. The only exception would be games over 80 degrees where he's really gone off (273.3/2.31/0.69).

Freezing doesn't mean snow. But it seems to me that the idea that snow = bad passing game doesn't mean as much as it used to. I remember a few recent games where there was respectable passing numbers. Has anyone collected data on this?

I'm not sure what percentage of games ever end up with snow. But I'm guessing not a lot outside of Buffalo (where it seems to snow more frequently).The closest stat I have for you is games with precipitation. And there were only 12 of those.244.3 yards, 1.17 TD, 0.42 INT

 

[Thumper]

way more weapons than 07 and knee should be fine. last year was somewhat a down year yet it was still a decent season. looks like hes ready to bounce back.then i look at his schedule. BRUTAL! one site ranks the schedule as 31st most friendly to QBs. meaning 2nd toughest.thoughts?

Brady is going to be a monster this year. I would not be shocked if he ends up as the #1 qb in fantasy football in 2010. Here are some reasons why.1/ Unlike 2009 Brady is healthy in 2010.2/ The Patriots have a young defense that is going to have some major growing pains this year. The Pat's are going to have to win games 40-37 if they want to make the playoffs.3/ Brady has some great weapons. As a matter of fact he may have better weapons than he had the year the Pat's went 16-0. Despite all the talk about how Randy Moss is on the downside he was the #1 wr in ff last year. Beyond that he is in a contract year. Wes Welker is back. Plus the Pat's may finally have a legit threat at te in rookie Rob Gronkowski. 4/ The running game is good enough (will be lead by Fred Taylor) to give help Brady in the passing game.5/ Tom Brady is one of the greatest qb's to ever play the game.

 

[Happy Ragnarok]

way more weapons than 07 and knee should be fine. last year was somewhat a down year yet it was still a decent season. looks like hes ready to bounce back.

then i look at his schedule. BRUTAL! one site ranks the schedule as 31st most friendly to QBs. meaning 2nd toughest.

thoughts?

Last year wasn't a down year for Brady at all, outside of his schedule. Take away his games against the three toughest fantasy defenses in the NFL (the Jets, Bills and Panthers), along with his half-game against Houston, and he scored 258 FP in his remaining 10 games. That 25.8 FP/G average comes in just a hair behind what Rodgers did last year (26.1).

Just because his numbers were close to Rodgers doesn't mean it wasn't a down year for him.If you watched him, he very clearly had trouble making throws which he would normally make quite easily and comfortably. He missed a LOT of wide open receivers, including many downfield, and it cost him a pretty substantial chunk of yardage and TD's.

What is "average" for Brady shouldn't be evaluated in terms of career averages. He pretty clearly took his game to another level when the Pats added a bunch of world class receiving weapons for him. And we've only got one healthy year to evaluate him on within those parameters. He was a very good FF QB last year, and in many ways, played terribly. The glaring mechanical flaws that plagued him last year, and the attendant inaccuracy, look to be things of the past this fall.

I think if you're evaluating him based on what QB's at large did last year...or based on what he does in his "average" season...you're really missing the boat. If he stays healthy, 4500/30 would be a disappointment. And his ceiling is a lot closer to 2007 then anybody is talking about, IMO.

 

[kdt]

he had a down year because he was missing open receivers and was making horrible throws except the dinks to welker, wasnt talking about fantasy standards at all. in fact i dont even know what his final rank was.

 

[bucsbaby]

 

[NE_REVIVAL]

way more weapons than 07 and knee should be fine. last year was somewhat a down year yet it was still a decent season. looks like hes ready to bounce back.then i look at his schedule. BRUTAL! one site ranks the schedule as 31st most friendly to QBs. meaning 2nd toughest.thoughts?

Incredible as it may sound, the NE offense has imo, flown way under the radar somewhat this offseason. They reloaded big time on their receivers and they looked primed for a very, very productive year throwing the ball. Another year of recovery from inj, a young defense that will likely struggle early on (if not all year) and better STs should also help lead to bigger numbers for Brady. IMO, there are only 2 QBs (Brees, Rodgers) I project to finish ahead of Brady and yes, I agreee that bad weather games at the end of the year are a legitimate concern.Let the games begin

 

[suspected]

I'm very bullish on Brady but still very concerned about the offensive line in general and Mankins in particular.

Recent quote from Brady:

"Well, I mean, you’re talking about a Pro Bowl guard, a guy who's been durable and tough and consistent, and has played with a nastiness about him that really, our offense has needed over the years," said Brady. "Listen, nobody can replace Logan Mankins. I mean, nobody can. There’s only one of those guys.

"He's a special guy, he's a special player, he's a special talent. But once again, the business side of things doesn't always really mesh up with the football side of things."

 

[Jagov]

Tommy and the guys will be hit and miss thru week 9 behind that line. In week 10, Woodley or Timmons ends his season with a vicious sack.

 

[the UFFRM]

Tommy and the guys will be hit and miss thru week 9 behind that line. In week 10, Woodley or Timmons ends his season with a vicious sack.

Or Harrison or even Aaron Smith who is healthy and wants to make up for lost time.

 

[Sweet Love]

anyone anxious about the snow games? iremember in 07 those turned out poorly. draft and trade midseason looks like a possiblity for me.

The guy who owned Brady and Moss in my league in 07 was undefeated until December; then he lost in the semifinals. Lesson learned: do not start a QB in the snow in December. If he is your elite player, trade him before that week.

Maybe I am looking into this too much, but BOTH sides of the ball play in the snow. I understand the exchange between the QB/Center and the gripping and throwing the ball are affected by said weather, but if he can connect with Moss/Welker and they have the footing to make a nice first move, what says the DB won't slip and a typical 7 yard pass turns into a 70 yard TD?

 

[switz]

way more weapons than 07 and knee should be fine. last year was somewhat a down year yet it was still a decent season. looks like hes ready to bounce back.then i look at his schedule. BRUTAL! one site ranks the schedule as 31st most friendly to QBs. meaning 2nd toughest.thoughts?

depends on what you mean by bounce back... I don't think he'll come close to 2007 ever again, but could he throw in the low 30's TDs and 4000 yards? Sure. I wouldn't bet on much more than that though.

 

[Tbone]

anyone anxious about the snow games? iremember in 07 those turned out poorly. draft and trade midseason looks like a possiblity for me.

The guy who owned Brady and Moss in my league in 07 was undefeated until December; then he lost in the semifinals. Lesson learned: do not start a QB in the snow in December. If he is your elite player, trade him before that week.

Maybe I am looking into this too much, but BOTH sides of the ball play in the snow. I understand the exchange between the QB/Center and the gripping and throwing the ball are affected by said weather, but if he can connect with Moss/Welker and they have the footing to make a nice first move, what says the DB won't slip and a typical 7 yard pass turns into a 70 yard TD?

2009, week 6 against Tennessee in the snow...380 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT29 for 34 attempts, 85.3 completion percentageFinal score 59-0

 

[Neofight]

anyone anxious about the snow games? iremember in 07 those turned out poorly. draft and trade midseason looks like a possiblity for me.

The guy who owned Brady and Moss in my league in 07 was undefeated until December; then he lost in the semifinals. Lesson learned: do not start a QB in the snow in December. If he is your elite player, trade him before that week.

Maybe I am looking into this too much, but BOTH sides of the ball play in the snow. I understand the exchange between the QB/Center and the gripping and throwing the ball are affected by said weather, but if he can connect with Moss/Welker and they have the footing to make a nice first move, what says the DB won't slip and a typical 7 yard pass turns into a 70 yard TD?

2009, week 6 against Tennessee in the snow...380 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT

29 for 34 attempts, 85.3 completion percentage

Final score 59-0

I was just about to post this. And there is even snow in the pic.

 

[ponchsox]

anyone anxious about the snow games? iremember in 07 those turned out poorly. draft and trade midseason looks like a possiblity for me.

The guy who owned Brady and Moss in my league in 07 was undefeated until December; then he lost in the semifinals. Lesson learned: do not start a QB in the snow in December. If he is your elite player, trade him before that week.

Maybe I am looking into this too much, but BOTH sides of the ball play in the snow. I understand the exchange between the QB/Center and the gripping and throwing the ball are affected by said weather, but if he can connect with Moss/Welker and they have the footing to make a nice first move, what says the DB won't slip and a typical 7 yard pass turns into a 70 yard TD?

2009, week 6 against Tennessee in the snow...380 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT29 for 34 attempts, 85.3 completion percentageFinal score 59-0

That was a crazy game, snow in early October

 

[captain_amazing]

2009, week 6 against Tennessee in the snow...380 yards, 6 TD, 0 INT29 for 34 attempts, 85.3 completion percentageFinal score 59-0

That was a crazy game, snow in early October

I love New England weather. I bet the morning before that game was shorts and t-shirt weather.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Last I checked Brady still leads a high powered passing first and often offense. I wouldn't be worried unless Randy Moss gets hurt. Edelman will be a nice addition to his arsenal of wr's to dump off to.