Tomorrow may be the bottom in the stock freefall (1 Viewer)

[kaa]

The circumstances that created the July 15th, 2008 low (which held for about 2 months) are now lined up again for Friday, October 10th, 2008. I'm expecting tomorrow to be THE capitulation day, with a monster rally starting on monday. The rally might actually begin tomorrow, but I'm not so sure people want to be long heading into the weekend.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. If I'm wrong about tomorrow, then it means we are heading MUCH MUCH MUCH lower, like wiping out 40 years of gains. But we'll get a TON of information once monday is over.

Another way to put it is tomorrow is the first "candidate" to be the low. If not tomorrow, then it'll take a while and a lot of points on the Dow and Naz to find it.

 

[spacevan]

Seriously!! You don't have a clue about when the bottom is coming. One thing I am certain about is that you are no longer allowed to talk about the bottom until after we pass the 7000 mark. Until then just roll around in all this gold you claim to be hoarding.

Let me explain something to you. We set a record at 14000. As much as it has gone up, it is going to come down. Which means we will set a record in the down column. That goes for housing as well. If you have noticed the TREND. The morning of trading is better than the close of trading. Why is that you ask yourself?? Because smart people with a lot of money buy a stock and then people like you see the price is going up and buy into it driving the stock up even further then SMACK they dump it and take your money. If you think this trend is not going to continue for some time then by all means carry on. A fool and their money are soon parted.

 

[kaa]

Seriously!! You don't have a clue about when the bottom is coming. One thing I am certain about is that you are no longer allowed to talk about the bottom until after we pass the 7000 mark. Until then just roll around in all this gold you claim to be hoarding.Let me explain something to you. We set a record at 14000. As much as it has gone up, it is going to come down. Which means we will set a record in the down column. That goes for housing as well. If you have noticed the TREND. The morning of trading is better than the close of trading. Why is that you ask yourself?? Because smart people with a lot of money buy a stock and then people like you see the price is going up and buy into it driving the stock up even further then SMACK they dump it and take your money. If you think this trend is not going to continue for some time then by all means carry on. A fool and their money are soon parted.

I think it can go under 7000. But for now I expect a bottom tomorrow, then some kind of relief rally. It can certainly roll over again after a few months and plummet under 7000. I don't think its a straight shot though.

 

[BowieMercs]

ummm ... the US markets are closed on Monday.

 

[Morton Muffley]

ummm ... the US markets are closed on Monday.

ummmm......no it isn't

 

[eoMMan]

The circumstances that created the July 15th, 2008 low (which held for about 2 months) are now lined up again for Friday, October 10th, 2008. I'm expecting tomorrow to be THE capitulation day, with a monster rally starting on monday. The rally might actually begin tomorrow, but I'm not so sure people want to be long heading into the weekend.This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. If I'm wrong about tomorrow, then it means we are heading MUCH MUCH MUCH lower, like wiping out 40 years of gains. But we'll get a TON of information once monday is over.Another way to put it is tomorrow is the first "candidate" to be the low. If not tomorrow, then it'll take a while and a lot of points on the Dow and Naz to find it.

What circumstances are you talking about?

 

[Clayton Gray]

The circumstances that created the July 15th, 2008 low (which held for about 2 months) are now lined up again for Friday, October 10th, 2008. I'm expecting tomorrow to be THE capitulation day, with a monster rally starting on monday. The rally might actually begin tomorrow, but I'm not so sure people want to be long heading into the weekend.This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. If I'm wrong about tomorrow, then it means we are heading MUCH MUCH MUCH lower, like wiping out 40 years of gains. But we'll get a TON of information once monday is over.Another way to put it is tomorrow is the first "candidate" to be the low. If not tomorrow, then it'll take a while and a lot of points on the Dow and Naz to find it.

What circumstances are you talking about?

 

[BowieMercs]

ummm ... the US markets are closed on Monday.

ummmm......no it isn't

oops.. my mistake. Some mutual funds wont be trading, but the markets are indeed open. Canadian markets are closed tho.

 

[kaa]

Markets looking to open down BIG on BIG volume. Capitulation IS forming on schedule. Down 1000 points today?

 

[FUBAR]

ummm ... the US markets are closed on Monday.

ummmm......no it isn't

oops.. my mistake. Some mutual funds wont be trading, but the markets are indeed open. Canadian markets are closed tho.

dangit, now I won't be able to daytrade my options in moose (meese? mooses? mise?)

 

[Tremendous Upside]

So what you're saying is today may or may not be the bottom

Thanks for the incisive analysis there JP Morgan

 

[eoMMan]

The circumstances that created the July 15th, 2008 low (which held for about 2 months) are now lined up again for Friday, October 10th, 2008. I'm expecting tomorrow to be THE capitulation day, with a monster rally starting on monday. The rally might actually begin tomorrow, but I'm not so sure people want to be long heading into the weekend.

This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. If I'm wrong about tomorrow, then it means we are heading MUCH MUCH MUCH lower, like wiping out 40 years of gains. But we'll get a TON of information once monday is over.

Another way to put it is tomorrow is the first "candidate" to be the low. If not tomorrow, then it'll take a while and a lot of points on the Dow and Naz to find it.

What circumstances are you talking about?

kaa?

 

[kaa]

So what you're saying is today may or may not be the bottomThanks for the incisive analysis there JP Morgan

No I'm saying today is the first true candidate to be the bottom. I expect it to be the bottom because that's what the market was telling us before today. But if I'm wrong, then the drops we have seen so far are nothing compared to what is to come.

 

[Chaos Commish]

The circumstances that created the July 15th, 2008 low (which held for about 2 months) are now lined up again for Friday, October 10th, 2008. I'm expecting tomorrow to be THE capitulation day, with a monster rally starting on monday. The rally might actually begin tomorrow, but I'm not so sure people want to be long heading into the weekend.This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. If I'm wrong about tomorrow, then it means we are heading MUCH MUCH MUCH lower, like wiping out 40 years of gains. But we'll get a TON of information once monday is over.Another way to put it is tomorrow is the first "candidate" to be the low. If not tomorrow, then it'll take a while and a lot of points on the Dow and Naz to find it.

What circumstances are you talking about?

 

[kaa]

The circumstances that created the July 15th, 2008 low (which held for about 2 months) are now lined up again for Friday, October 10th, 2008. I'm expecting tomorrow to be THE capitulation day, with a monster rally starting on monday. The rally might actually begin tomorrow, but I'm not so sure people want to be long heading into the weekend.This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. If I'm wrong about tomorrow, then it means we are heading MUCH MUCH MUCH lower, like wiping out 40 years of gains. But we'll get a TON of information once monday is over.Another way to put it is tomorrow is the first "candidate" to be the low. If not tomorrow, then it'll take a while and a lot of points on the Dow and Naz to find it.

What circumstances are you talking about?

Let's just say this is my 20 years of expertise kicking in. I'm pretty good at this stuff.

 

[Tremendous Upside]

So what you're saying is today may or may not be the bottomThanks for the incisive analysis there JP Morgan

No I'm saying today is the first true candidate to be the bottom. I expect it to be the bottom because that's what the market was telling us before today. But if I'm wrong, then the drops we have seen so far are nothing compared to what is to come.

So what you're saying is today may or may not be the bottom

 

[kaa]

So what you're saying is today may or may not be the bottomThanks for the incisive analysis there JP Morgan

No I'm saying today is the first true candidate to be the bottom. I expect it to be the bottom because that's what the market was telling us before today. But if I'm wrong, then the drops we have seen so far are nothing compared to what is to come.

So what you're saying is today may or may not be the bottom

You didn't see me start a thread about the bottom about any other day during this freefall did you?

 

[cowboysin07]

Dow futures down 300 pre open

 

[BowieMercs]

The circumstances that created the July 15th, 2008 low (which held for about 2 months) are now lined up again for Friday, October 10th, 2008. I'm expecting tomorrow to be THE capitulation day, with a monster rally starting on monday. The rally might actually begin tomorrow, but I'm not so sure people want to be long heading into the weekend.This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. If I'm wrong about tomorrow, then it means we are heading MUCH MUCH MUCH lower, like wiping out 40 years of gains. But we'll get a TON of information once monday is over.Another way to put it is tomorrow is the first "candidate" to be the low. If not tomorrow, then it'll take a while and a lot of points on the Dow and Naz to find it.

What circumstances are you talking about?

Let's just say this is my 20 years of expertise kicking in. I'm pretty good at this stuff.

Throw us a bone. We know its not triple witching day... so explain it to us like "truthiness" doesn't exist.

 

[Tecumseh]

Wow. Whole lotta unfounded hostility up in here.

 

[Otis]

So what you're saying is today may or may not be the bottomThanks for the incisive analysis there JP Morgan

Kinda what I was thinking here. My pet turtle's turds are equally insightful.

 

[kaa]

The circumstances that created the July 15th, 2008 low (which held for about 2 months) are now lined up again for Friday, October 10th, 2008. I'm expecting tomorrow to be THE capitulation day, with a monster rally starting on monday. The rally might actually begin tomorrow, but I'm not so sure people want to be long heading into the weekend.This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. If I'm wrong about tomorrow, then it means we are heading MUCH MUCH MUCH lower, like wiping out 40 years of gains. But we'll get a TON of information once monday is over.Another way to put it is tomorrow is the first "candidate" to be the low. If not tomorrow, then it'll take a while and a lot of points on the Dow and Naz to find it.

What circumstances are you talking about?

Let's just say this is my 20 years of expertise kicking in. I'm pretty good at this stuff.

Throw us a bone. We know its not triple witching day... so explain it to us like "truthiness" doesn't exist.

Maybe I already did explain it before and it got buried in personal attacks against me and / or deleted in a gold chat thread.

 

[BowieMercs]

People have been saying for months "we're at the bottom! get ready to buy!" Maybe even a year now, people have been saying this. This could be the high for the Dow for the next 5 years. You have no idea. Stop trying to act like ya do, it causes more stress, etc.

We wont know where the bottom WAS until months or years after the fact.

 

[BowieMercs]

The circumstances that created the July 15th, 2008 low (which held for about 2 months) are now lined up again for Friday, October 10th, 2008. I'm expecting tomorrow to be THE capitulation day, with a monster rally starting on monday. The rally might actually begin tomorrow, but I'm not so sure people want to be long heading into the weekend.This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. If I'm wrong about tomorrow, then it means we are heading MUCH MUCH MUCH lower, like wiping out 40 years of gains. But we'll get a TON of information once monday is over.Another way to put it is tomorrow is the first "candidate" to be the low. If not tomorrow, then it'll take a while and a lot of points on the Dow and Naz to find it.

What circumstances are you talking about?

Let's just say this is my 20 years of expertise kicking in. I'm pretty good at this stuff.

Throw us a bone. We know its not triple witching day... so explain it to us like "truthiness" doesn't exist.

Maybe I already did explain it before and it got buried in personal attacks against me and / or deleted in a gold chat thread.

Maybe you did. Maybe you are really 5 yrs old. Who knows?

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

Let's just say this is my 20 years of expertise kicking in. I'm pretty good at this stuff.

So how much you up YTD?

 

[kaa]

People have been saying for months "we're at the bottom! get ready to buy!" Maybe even a year now, people have been saying this. This could be the high for the Dow for the next 5 years. You have no idea. Stop trying to act like ya do, it causes more stress, etc.

We wont know where the bottom WAS until months or years after the fact.

Like I said, it could still roll over and go even lower in a couple months. But for now, this should be a capitulation day with the rally starting monday.

 

[Tecumseh]

ABC News just broke in with a special report that the market is at a 5 year low, and has now met the formal definition of a crash.

 

[Lehigh98]

Down 450 in 5 minutes

 

[GroveDiesel]

So what you're saying is today may or may not be the bottom

Thanks for the incisive analysis there JP Morgan

Kinda what I was thinking here. My pet turtle's turds are equally insightful.

Stop the thread please. Otis has a pet turtle!?

 

[Lehigh98]

At what point will it be low enough for Dubai to buy the US?

 

[3C's]

almost 700 down but back up to "only" 200 down.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

The circumstances that created the July 15th, 2008 low (which held for about 2 months) are now lined up again for Friday, October 10th, 2008. I'm expecting tomorrow to be THE capitulation day, with a monster rally starting on monday. The rally might actually begin tomorrow, but I'm not so sure people want to be long heading into the weekend.This is not a recommendation to buy or sell. If I'm wrong about tomorrow, then it means we are heading MUCH MUCH MUCH lower, like wiping out 40 years of gains. But we'll get a TON of information once monday is over.Another way to put it is tomorrow is the first "candidate" to be the low. If not tomorrow, then it'll take a while and a lot of points on the Dow and Naz to find it.

What circumstances are you talking about?

Let's just say this is my 20 years of expertise kicking in. I'm pretty good at this stuff.

You seem to be trying to have it both ways here.If this is the low, you can come back and say you were right which you like to do.If this isn't the low, you can come back and say things changed without any kind of explanation which you've done before.So spill it.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

ABC News just broke in with a special report that the market is at a 5 year low, and has now met the formal definition of a crash.

There's a formal definition?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

People have been saying for months "we're at the bottom! get ready to buy!" Maybe even a year now, people have been saying this. This could be the high for the Dow for the next 5 years. You have no idea. Stop trying to act like ya do, it causes more stress, etc.

We wont know where the bottom WAS until months or years after the fact.

Like I said, it could still roll over and go even lower in a couple months. But for now, this should be a capitulation day with the rally starting monday.

For the record, how much should the markets be down today for the capitulation to be official?

 

[kaa]

That opening shot down 650 was rejected pretty firmly, as buyers are starting to find a footing. That may have been the exhaustion low. Might be all up from there. Again I just wonder if traders won't want to be long over the weekend which may prevent that, so perhaps the market sells off after lunch.

 

[Paper Lions]

Wow. Whole lotta unfounded hostility up in here.

Thinking the same thing.

 

[Tecumseh]

ABC News just broke in with a special report that the market is at a 5 year low, and has now met the formal definition of a crash.

There's a formal definition?

That's what the talking head said.

 

[regularguy]

Wow. Whole lotta unfounded hostility up in here.

Thinking the same thing.

you guys know kaa=bgp, right?

 

[Tecumseh]

They had a reporter on the floor of the exchange interviewing one of the traders. His opinion was that we are at or very near the bottom, and may well see a rally today and Monday. He said being down 100 points at close would be a victory today, but was hoping for +200-300. He thought today might see the last of the sellers get washed out.

 

[Paper Lions]

Wow. Whole lotta unfounded hostility up in here.

Thinking the same thing.

you guys know kaa=bgp, right?

Yea. Never totally understood why he is the boogie man. I didn't see anything wrong in this thread.

 

[Tecumseh]

Wow. Whole lotta unfounded hostility up in here.

Thinking the same thing.

you guys know kaa=bgp, right?

Yeah, so? He's been dead on for years in his gold speculation. This isn't Bill Cowher chat, or election tripe. This is an area where I'm willing to listen to what he has to say, because he's been right more often than not in the past, and has admitted when he's been wrong.

 

[cowboysin07]

I like this for the bottom. The VIX is at a level that usually defines a bottom and major resistance at this level. Loaded up on JPM, GS, WMT, PFE, and KFT yesterday.

It's the half price store.

 

[3C's]

Wow. Whole lotta unfounded hostility up in here.

Thinking the same thing.

you guys know kaa=bgp, right?

Yeah, so? He's been dead on for years in his gold speculation. This isn't Bill Cowher chat, or election tripe. This is an area where I'm willing to listen to what he has to say, because he's been right more often than not in the past, and has admitted when he's been wrong.

I agree. He's a loon when talking Steelers, but he seems to have a pretty good feel for the market.

 

[corpcow]

The bigger question is, what are you guys buying?

 

[regularguy]

Wow. Whole lotta unfounded hostility up in here.

Thinking the same thing.

you guys know kaa=bgp, right?

Yeah, so? He's been dead on for years in his gold speculation. This isn't Bill Cowher chat, or election tripe. This is an area where I'm willing to listen to what he has to say, because he's been right more often than not in the past, and has admitted when he's been wrong.

I agree. He's a loon when talking Steelers, but he seems to have a pretty good feel for the market.

I was just pointing that there is a history there for some posters. I also have some respect for his opinion in this area, and his views are reflected by some other knowledgeable posters at another message board I read. However, his delivery and opinions on other matters tend to be inseparable for some around here.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

People have been saying for months "we're at the bottom! get ready to buy!" Maybe even a year now, people have been saying this. This could be the high for the Dow for the next 5 years. You have no idea. Stop trying to act like ya do, it causes more stress, etc.

We wont know where the bottom WAS until months or years after the fact.

Like I said, it could still roll over and go even lower in a couple months. But for now, this should be a capitulation day with the rally starting monday.

For the record, how much should the markets be down today for the capitulation to be official?

Update?

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

You're going to tell us when its safe to dip back in, right?

 

[Jefferson the Caregiver]

Still waiting for the green light from above.

 

[toshiba]

DO not be suckered into a late Friday rally. The down still has some fall left to it. The botton is the day it closes at 7500 +/-100.

 

[Roscoe P Coltrane]

That opening shot down 650 was rejected pretty firmly, as buyers are starting to find a footing. That may have been the exhaustion low. Might be all up from there. Again I just wonder if traders won't want to be long over the weekend which may prevent that, so perhaps the market sells off after lunch.

Dow is back to even now, with 15 minutes to go -- can we hold it??