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Top 200 Forward (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Mavzfan
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display name
Footballguy
A 2nd opinion top 200 would probably be a nice tool.
I find the top 200 almost impossible to look at sometimes. There are always players that are just overrated all year long. This year Jahvid Best is a great example of that. Since week 3 he has been productive enough to be considered a RB4 in non-ppr leagues, yet he has remained ranked top 12 the whole time.
Matt Schaub isn't going to be a top 5 QB going forward. He is ranked 17th in ppg so far this season. Remove Troy Smith, due to small sample size and probability he won't start more than one more game, and that puts Schaub at 16th in ppg. He is 15th in total points at QB It is clearly not last season anymore. How is this not apparent yet?
Rankings:
QB (1 pt 20 yds, 4 pt TD, -2 INT, Lost Fumble)
1. Manning (can get it done with any WR, a lot of those guys are getting healthy again Banged up RB corp)
2. Rivers (Team can't run very effectively. Jackson coming back)
3. Rodgers (Team can't run. Still has decent weapons and adds points on the ground)
4. Brees (Team can't run. Bush should be back week 11)
5. Vick (explosive receiving threats and adds points on the ground)
6. Roethlisberger (plenty of weapons at his disposal, a running game that has to be respected but may limit his potential)
7. Fitzpatrick (Always playing from behind. Good downfield receiving threats)
8. Stafford (If he can stay healthy. Upside beyond this ranking)
9. Ryan
10. Young (Moss, adds points on the ground. Only problem is his history of usually throwing for less than 200 yds in games)
11. Schaub (running game is now the focal point. Schaub isn't performing at last years level)
12. Palmer (has a great receiving core)
13. Orton (he had a nice early season run, but has been trending down)
14. Brady (this is more like the pre-moss offense)
15. E. Manning (upside to jump up to top 8)
16. Flacco
17. Freeman (I think this kid could outperform this ranking. Has been very consistent and adds points on the ground)
18. McNabb
19. J. Kitna (lots of Interceptions, plenty of yards)
RB (non - ppr)
1. C. Johnson (Moss should stretch the field and open up some bigger holes for CJ. We've seen what he can do with that)
2. A. Foster (he is a great fit for the Kubiak system, has a nice durable looking build. Featured heavily)
3. A. Peterson (I'm a little concerned he could drop to between 5 and 10. Moss gone, Harvin hurt, Favre not scaring defenses)
4. D. McFadden (they are feeding him the ball. Explosive potential. Just needs to stay on the field)
5. F. Gore
6. J. Charles (starting to show what he can do, being given more opportunities)
7. R. Mendenhall (concern about reduced carries. not much competition for carries though, and Ben will keep defenses honest)
8. L. McCoy (If Vick can stay on the field it should help open up nice running lanes for McCoy)
9. M. Jones-Drew (he had a rough start, but is starting to stabilize. Nice forward schedule, still featured)
10. M. Turner (only 3 TDs so far this season. Snelling stole a lot of early season points, but Turner is going to notch some TDs)
11. A. Bradshaw (should be nice and consistent. possibility of seeing the endzone a little more going forward)
12. P. Hillis (big bruising backs tend to wear down over the season, has never carried full load all season, if these can be avoided could be better than this ranking)
13. L. Tomlinson (Shonn Green will chip away at Tomlinson's production more as the season progresses)
14. L. Blount (looks like the featured back going forward, and has a favorable schedule)
15. S. Jackson (nothing flashy so far but very consistent, could see a big game or two)
16. T. Jones (Chiefs running game is clicking, he is getting good goal line looks, top 5 potential if Charles gets injured)
17. J. Addai (great chance at top 10 if he can just get back on the field and healthy. underrated goal line back)
18. R. Rice (too many new weapons and Flacco development this year means the Ravens aren't relying on dump offs to Rice)
19. K. Moreno (This is about the worst I see him finishing if he just stays on the field, there is top 10 upside here)
20. M. Forte (2 great games, but a lot of stinkers)
21. BJGE (limited carries, some poor ypc games, one huge game, goal line back)
22. C. Benson (getting a ton of carries like last year, but just not finding the same yardage. TO has taken goal line looks)
23. J. Stewart/D. Williams (if you have both, don't give up on these guys yet. Could take a couple weeks for defenses to soften up and start respecting the pass a little more. Williams is the better long term option)
24. J. Best (has to score again eventually, but the turf toe will not resolve itself this season)
25. B. Jacobs (getting a lot of goal line looks)
26. M. Tolbert (splitting carries, on a prolific offense that should provide ample scoring opps)
27. M. Lynch (hasn't done much with the opportunities, Seattle O is just not very good)
28. B. Jackson (trending up in both carries and production)
29. W. McGahee (The Ravens failed to trade him, so they may as well use him. Generally underrated as a RB)
30. C. Wells (durability is still a huge concern. Lubrication in the knee doesn't sound good, and neither does more swelling)
31. R. Torain (Hamstring injuries tend to linger)
32. D. Woodhead (limited opportunities but a decent spot start)
33. F. Jones (ditto)
The rest qualify as flyers:
C. Ivory (Team had a down game against the Browns, he suffered a mild concussion last week. When Bush gets healthy he could still make some noise as the power running back and possibly see some goal line looks. Pierre isn't really showing good signs of returning and being healthy enough to be productive. Something 'new' was found wrong with his ankle)
R. Bush (should be back week 11)
R. Williams/Ronnie Brown (If both stay healthy then neither is better than a spot start)
S. Greene (I think he'll become more featured later in the season. Huge upside if LT gets injured)
D. Sproles (All the injuries could mean more involvement in the passing game)
M. Reece (Zach Miller injury is creating opportunities for Reece)
Wide Receivers/TE (non - ppr)
1. C. Johnson (he is a beast, and Stafford is healthy)
2. R. White (so consistent, and puts up a couple monsters every year too)
3. D. Jackson (if he can put the severe concussion behind him, he'll flourish with Vick at QB)
4. A. Johnson (looking healthier, but the HAS he has been playing on could minimize potential week in week out.)
5. H. Nicks (good call by Dodds on Nicks this year. He has been unstoppable in the red zone)
6. G. Jennings (no Finley, Grant, Driver means lots of Jennings)
7. B. Lloyd (took me awhile to believe, but we have a legit producer in Lloyd this year)
9. A. Boldin
10. T. Owens (great redzone presence)
11. A. Collie (practiced fully on thursday, has been great when healthy, other receivers also banged up)
12. S. Johnson (Buffalo is going to be passing a lot)
13. M. Austin (will still be a factor with Kitna at QB. Cowboys will have to pass a lot, lack of running game)
14. A. Gates (hard to discount his toughness, but a torn fasciitis could limit him a lot)
15. R. Wayne (injury issues are holding him back, and Collie is back at practice and has emerged this year)
16. R. Moss (maybe limited targets and catches, but should be golden in the play action deep ball passing game)
17. D. Bowe (finally showing something)
18. D. Bryant (has supplanted Williams, getting healthier, utilized on special teams, top 10 upside with Austin as the defenses number 1 priority)
19. B. Marshall (Henne just isn't that good yet. Not many scoring opportunities)
20. M. Wallace (not getting a lot of targets, but should see some big games and long TDs)
21. M. Williams, TB (has been pretty consistently targeted)
22. L. Fitzgerald (the return of Breaston should help open things a little)
23. J. Maclin (Vick looks his way in the redzone)
24. P. Garcon
25. P. Harvin (may miss some time, and Moss is gone. This ranking looks like his upside to me)
26. J. Witten (Kitna will focus on him more than Romo was)
27. S. Breaston (he has been solid when on the field)
28. S. Smith, NYG (I think he'll have a nice second half)
29. S. Smith, CAR (Matt Moore helps, lots of targets moving forward)
30. M. Colston
31. H. Ward (will get more targets than Wallace, but won't do as much with them)
32. M. Williams, SEA (we saw some potential, with two heavily targeted and productive weeks. Then injury against Oak. Big question mark with Whitehurst coming in)
33. S. Moss
34. R. Meachem (Steelers game shows Saints are almost over there hang over, Meachem looks like he is over his toe issues, when Bush comes back it will open things up for everyone, and Meachem has some big 2nd half of the season potential as a result. He has been coming on lately, I see to 20 potential here)
35. M. Crabtree
36. M. Sims-Walker (he'll remain maddeningly inconsistent, but there could be another big game, maybe 2, in there)
37. L. Evans (ditto)
38. C. Ochocinco (he is getting treated as the #1 by defenses. Defenses are dictating TO being the more productive receiver)
39. N. Washington (Moss should open up some intermediate routes for Washington)
40. M. Lewis (having a great season. 3 multiple TD games already. Could finish much higher if this continues)
41. V. Davis
42. L. Moore
43. D. Bess
44. D. Amendola
45. Zach Miller (injured)
I post these rankings for the amusement of the Shark Pool. If I am going to be critical of Dodd's stubborness about some players I may as well post be willing to put my rankings out there.
I find the top 200 almost impossible to look at sometimes. There are always players that are just overrated all year long. This year Jahvid Best is a great example of that. Since week 3 he has been productive enough to be considered a RB4 in non-ppr leagues, yet he has remained ranked top 12 the whole time.
Matt Schaub isn't going to be a top 5 QB going forward. He is ranked 17th in ppg so far this season. Remove Troy Smith, due to small sample size and probability he won't start more than one more game, and that puts Schaub at 16th in ppg. He is 15th in total points at QB It is clearly not last season anymore. How is this not apparent yet?
Rankings:
QB (1 pt 20 yds, 4 pt TD, -2 INT, Lost Fumble)
1. Manning (can get it done with any WR, a lot of those guys are getting healthy again Banged up RB corp)
2. Rivers (Team can't run very effectively. Jackson coming back)
3. Rodgers (Team can't run. Still has decent weapons and adds points on the ground)
4. Brees (Team can't run. Bush should be back week 11)
5. Vick (explosive receiving threats and adds points on the ground)
6. Roethlisberger (plenty of weapons at his disposal, a running game that has to be respected but may limit his potential)
7. Fitzpatrick (Always playing from behind. Good downfield receiving threats)
8. Stafford (If he can stay healthy. Upside beyond this ranking)
9. Ryan
10. Young (Moss, adds points on the ground. Only problem is his history of usually throwing for less than 200 yds in games)
11. Schaub (running game is now the focal point. Schaub isn't performing at last years level)
12. Palmer (has a great receiving core)
13. Orton (he had a nice early season run, but has been trending down)
14. Brady (this is more like the pre-moss offense)
15. E. Manning (upside to jump up to top 8)
16. Flacco
17. Freeman (I think this kid could outperform this ranking. Has been very consistent and adds points on the ground)
18. McNabb
19. J. Kitna (lots of Interceptions, plenty of yards)
RB (non - ppr)
1. C. Johnson (Moss should stretch the field and open up some bigger holes for CJ. We've seen what he can do with that)
2. A. Foster (he is a great fit for the Kubiak system, has a nice durable looking build. Featured heavily)
3. A. Peterson (I'm a little concerned he could drop to between 5 and 10. Moss gone, Harvin hurt, Favre not scaring defenses)
4. D. McFadden (they are feeding him the ball. Explosive potential. Just needs to stay on the field)
5. F. Gore
6. J. Charles (starting to show what he can do, being given more opportunities)
7. R. Mendenhall (concern about reduced carries. not much competition for carries though, and Ben will keep defenses honest)
8. L. McCoy (If Vick can stay on the field it should help open up nice running lanes for McCoy)
9. M. Jones-Drew (he had a rough start, but is starting to stabilize. Nice forward schedule, still featured)
10. M. Turner (only 3 TDs so far this season. Snelling stole a lot of early season points, but Turner is going to notch some TDs)
11. A. Bradshaw (should be nice and consistent. possibility of seeing the endzone a little more going forward)
12. P. Hillis (big bruising backs tend to wear down over the season, has never carried full load all season, if these can be avoided could be better than this ranking)
13. L. Tomlinson (Shonn Green will chip away at Tomlinson's production more as the season progresses)
14. L. Blount (looks like the featured back going forward, and has a favorable schedule)
15. S. Jackson (nothing flashy so far but very consistent, could see a big game or two)
16. T. Jones (Chiefs running game is clicking, he is getting good goal line looks, top 5 potential if Charles gets injured)
17. J. Addai (great chance at top 10 if he can just get back on the field and healthy. underrated goal line back)
18. R. Rice (too many new weapons and Flacco development this year means the Ravens aren't relying on dump offs to Rice)
19. K. Moreno (This is about the worst I see him finishing if he just stays on the field, there is top 10 upside here)
20. M. Forte (2 great games, but a lot of stinkers)
21. BJGE (limited carries, some poor ypc games, one huge game, goal line back)
22. C. Benson (getting a ton of carries like last year, but just not finding the same yardage. TO has taken goal line looks)
23. J. Stewart/D. Williams (if you have both, don't give up on these guys yet. Could take a couple weeks for defenses to soften up and start respecting the pass a little more. Williams is the better long term option)
24. J. Best (has to score again eventually, but the turf toe will not resolve itself this season)
25. B. Jacobs (getting a lot of goal line looks)
26. M. Tolbert (splitting carries, on a prolific offense that should provide ample scoring opps)
27. M. Lynch (hasn't done much with the opportunities, Seattle O is just not very good)
28. B. Jackson (trending up in both carries and production)
29. W. McGahee (The Ravens failed to trade him, so they may as well use him. Generally underrated as a RB)
30. C. Wells (durability is still a huge concern. Lubrication in the knee doesn't sound good, and neither does more swelling)
31. R. Torain (Hamstring injuries tend to linger)
32. D. Woodhead (limited opportunities but a decent spot start)
33. F. Jones (ditto)
The rest qualify as flyers:
C. Ivory (Team had a down game against the Browns, he suffered a mild concussion last week. When Bush gets healthy he could still make some noise as the power running back and possibly see some goal line looks. Pierre isn't really showing good signs of returning and being healthy enough to be productive. Something 'new' was found wrong with his ankle)
R. Bush (should be back week 11)
R. Williams/Ronnie Brown (If both stay healthy then neither is better than a spot start)
S. Greene (I think he'll become more featured later in the season. Huge upside if LT gets injured)
D. Sproles (All the injuries could mean more involvement in the passing game)
M. Reece (Zach Miller injury is creating opportunities for Reece)
Wide Receivers/TE (non - ppr)
1. C. Johnson (he is a beast, and Stafford is healthy)
2. R. White (so consistent, and puts up a couple monsters every year too)
3. D. Jackson (if he can put the severe concussion behind him, he'll flourish with Vick at QB)
4. A. Johnson (looking healthier, but the HAS he has been playing on could minimize potential week in week out.)
5. H. Nicks (good call by Dodds on Nicks this year. He has been unstoppable in the red zone)
6. G. Jennings (no Finley, Grant, Driver means lots of Jennings)
7. B. Lloyd (took me awhile to believe, but we have a legit producer in Lloyd this year)
9. A. Boldin
10. T. Owens (great redzone presence)
11. A. Collie (practiced fully on thursday, has been great when healthy, other receivers also banged up)
12. S. Johnson (Buffalo is going to be passing a lot)
13. M. Austin (will still be a factor with Kitna at QB. Cowboys will have to pass a lot, lack of running game)
14. A. Gates (hard to discount his toughness, but a torn fasciitis could limit him a lot)
15. R. Wayne (injury issues are holding him back, and Collie is back at practice and has emerged this year)
16. R. Moss (maybe limited targets and catches, but should be golden in the play action deep ball passing game)
17. D. Bowe (finally showing something)
18. D. Bryant (has supplanted Williams, getting healthier, utilized on special teams, top 10 upside with Austin as the defenses number 1 priority)
19. B. Marshall (Henne just isn't that good yet. Not many scoring opportunities)
20. M. Wallace (not getting a lot of targets, but should see some big games and long TDs)
21. M. Williams, TB (has been pretty consistently targeted)
22. L. Fitzgerald (the return of Breaston should help open things a little)
23. J. Maclin (Vick looks his way in the redzone)
24. P. Garcon
25. P. Harvin (may miss some time, and Moss is gone. This ranking looks like his upside to me)
26. J. Witten (Kitna will focus on him more than Romo was)
27. S. Breaston (he has been solid when on the field)
28. S. Smith, NYG (I think he'll have a nice second half)
29. S. Smith, CAR (Matt Moore helps, lots of targets moving forward)
30. M. Colston
31. H. Ward (will get more targets than Wallace, but won't do as much with them)
32. M. Williams, SEA (we saw some potential, with two heavily targeted and productive weeks. Then injury against Oak. Big question mark with Whitehurst coming in)
33. S. Moss
34. R. Meachem (Steelers game shows Saints are almost over there hang over, Meachem looks like he is over his toe issues, when Bush comes back it will open things up for everyone, and Meachem has some big 2nd half of the season potential as a result. He has been coming on lately, I see to 20 potential here)
35. M. Crabtree
36. M. Sims-Walker (he'll remain maddeningly inconsistent, but there could be another big game, maybe 2, in there)
37. L. Evans (ditto)
38. C. Ochocinco (he is getting treated as the #1 by defenses. Defenses are dictating TO being the more productive receiver)
39. N. Washington (Moss should open up some intermediate routes for Washington)
40. M. Lewis (having a great season. 3 multiple TD games already. Could finish much higher if this continues)
41. V. Davis
42. L. Moore
43. D. Bess
44. D. Amendola
45. Zach Miller (injured)
I post these rankings for the amusement of the Shark Pool. If I am going to be critical of Dodd's stubborness about some players I may as well post be willing to put my rankings out there.
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footballnerd
Footballguy
yes please
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Did I miss R Mathews on this list or did you leave him off completely for a reason? Surely he can at the very least be mentioned over M Reecedisplay name said:
display name
Footballguy
Yes, you are right. I just overlooked him. I would put him in the 22-28 range. Other guys that probably deserve mention as flyers: Forsett, Hightower, and Fred Jackson. Once you get down into the upper 20s/early 30's the actuall ranking becomes less important. Players at that point are bye week fill ins where you just hope for a decent week, or guys who could produce if an injury occurs in front of them.Did I miss R Mathews on this list or did you leave him off completely for a reason? Surely he can at the very least be mentioned over M Reecedisplay name said:
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wudaben
Footballguy
I noticed that also... no way Matthews is lower than Tolbert and Sproles! He is continually getting more and more of the workload and Norv is now commenting on him finally being 100%. Tolbert may continue to vulture the TDs but all it'll take is for Matthews to go off one game and then Norv will be riding him.Did I miss R Mathews on this list or did you leave him off completely for a reason? Surely he can at the very least be mentioned over M Reece
display name
Footballguy
He may outperform Tolbert. But Tolbert is getting almost all of the goal line looks. Tolbert did sprain his ankle this week so Matthews might have an opportunity to assert himself and even garner a few of those goal line looks.They are pretty much splitting the carries, and neither has really shown that they should be getting the bulk of the workload, so this will probably continue. There is no guarantee of this 'monster game' at all.I noticed that also... no way Matthews is lower than Tolbert and Sproles! He is continually getting more and more of the workload and Norv is now commenting on him finally being 100%. Tolbert may continue to vulture the TDs but all it'll take is for Matthews to go off one game and then Norv will be riding him.Did I miss R Mathews on this list or did you leave him off completely for a reason? Surely he can at the very least be mentioned over M Reece
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austinball
Footballguy
Thanks for the effort. I agree that some percent (10%?) of the 200 forward ranking just don't make any sense at all.
On your list I'd argue that Steven Jackson should be Top 10, not 15th. He has been one of the most consistent performers week in and out. Bradford has helped soften defenses, even without great WR talent, and that should continue. Unless his injury proves to be a bigger issue than people think (which i doubt) then he should continue to produce Top 10 numbers from here on out IMO.
I'd put SJAX at #8 in front of McCoy, MJD, and Turner.
On your list I'd argue that Steven Jackson should be Top 10, not 15th. He has been one of the most consistent performers week in and out. Bradford has helped soften defenses, even without great WR talent, and that should continue. Unless his injury proves to be a bigger issue than people think (which i doubt) then he should continue to produce Top 10 numbers from here on out IMO.
I'd put SJAX at #8 in front of McCoy, MJD, and Turner.
whitem0nkey
Footballguy
I would love to get Bloom's take at the Top 200 going forward.
I use on blooms weekly rankings more and find his projections to be more accurate.
I use on blooms weekly rankings more and find his projections to be more accurate.
Buck Bradcanon
Footballguy
Outstanding post. Great work in your rankings.display name said:
Breesisdaman
Footballguy
Where would Fred Jackson be on your rankings? I have him higher than Felix Jones.
display name
Footballguy
I'll admit I overlooked him a bit. In a later post I mentioned that he deserved to be mentioned as a flyer. I would say he could finish anywhere from 24-36.
nickel&dime
Footballguy
I'd love to see Bloom's rest-of-season rankings too. We're pretty much on the home stretch for getting player trades done, so any indication of relative future value would be helpful!Regarding the accuracy of Bloom and Dodds weekly rankings, it's interesting that Dodds actually ranks higher this year so far, and also ranked higher in 2009. I'm not saying one is better than the other, just pointing out one objective study on the topic. I'm guessing they'll both finish in the top 10 easily, based on the other 40 guys that they're being compared to (like Matthew Berry!).
display name
Footballguy
Bloom is a part of the FBG team, right? Those of us who are suckers enough (including myself) to pay 30ish dollars per season should bankroll him spending some time on a 2nd opinion top 250, no? Does it really take that much time to put together rankings? Do algorithms and probabilities really lead to successful prognastication? Is the amount of time that is put into rankings going to substantially increase their effectiveness? I am starting to think that mathematical formulas(algorithms) and probabilities are overrated in the current NFL. It isn't predictable enough for playing based on probabilities to be a successful strategy anymore. In my opinion, the current NFL production (aka fantasy football relevant statistics) can't be successfully predicted using probabilities. To be successful, you need to have gut level understandings of trends and deviations from the expected to be able to succeed. You can't win championships in leagues with high quality competition using only probability formulations. You need to be able to successfully guess the unexpected... or fail trying to. Playing based on probability will only lead to the illusion of competitiveness, while not really being good enough to take home the championship.I guess the main point of this rant is, do the number of hours put in really matter? They could in fact lead to greater error and less adjustment to what is happening week to week in the NFL. This league is not easy to predict. You need to take some chances to be ahead of the curve.BusterTBronco said:
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Perfect Tommy
Footballguy
I see this type of complaint about mathematics frequently. Mathematics is a tool. If somebody builds a shoddy house you wouldn't question the usefulness of hammers. If somebody makes poor predictions it does not mean using mathematics is bad. Misusing mathematics is bad. Using correct mathematics with lousy predictions still leads to lousy predictions. Whatever gut instinct for predictions one might have, if they know how to properly use mathematics to analyze their prediction that can only add to the value of the prediction. Just as having hammers available when you build a house can only help you build the house, it can never hurt.
display name
Footballguy
I wasn't so much complaining as pointing out the unavoidable weakness involved when probabilities are relied on too heavily. I think this is becoming more apparent as the NFL seems to be becoming more difficult to predict. Increased difficulty in predicting outcomes would necessarily dictate that predictions based on probability aren't going to be as strong.Just for example, the projections for this week have RBs 2-10 all scoring between 14.6 and 13.1 FP. In my opinion this is an example of probabilities/mathematics gone wrong. The odds are extremely low that the RB production is going to break down in this manner for the coming week. I did a quick eye scan of the production breakdowns at RB the last few weeks, and none of them look like this at all. Week in, week out I see these kind of projections being provided. It just doesn't happen like that in the real NFL.Perfect Tommy said:
adrian peterson has a few crappy games every year. so it makes no sense to project him to score 15+ fantasy points week in and week out. gotta pick a few weeks for him to have poor numbers amirite?
As someone who compiles a list of forward-looking projections on a weekly basis, I can say without any equivocation that the number of hours put in really does matter. Those hours suffer from diminishing returns (so going from 1 hour to 2 hours creates a greater improvement in your product than going from 51 hours to 52 hours does), but in all cases, more time spent on the product results in a better product.display name said:
You're saying that people should rank based on Expectations. Bloom and Dodds instead rank on Expected Value. In the long run, ranking on EV trumps ranking on Expectations. It just does. Ranking based on EV reduces the likelihood of you getting the projection right, but it increases the likelihood of you getting the projection almost right, which when iterated over hundreds of projections will result in a set of projections that are on the whole more accurate.
display name
Footballguy
This is pretty much the point I'm making. Weeks 1-7, Adrian Peterson was projected to score at lowest 14.7 and at highest 22.6 fantasy points. Those were the two extreme projections. The other 4 weeks the projections fell between 16.7 and 18.2 fantasy points. Could the rankings be played any safer? This clearly demonstrates a huge reliance on probabilities and a total lack of going out on a limb and calling a big game or a dud every now and then (as do the figures given above relating to this weeks RB projections).I think this general highly mathematical and probability oriented manner of going about predicting fantasy football is also dominant in the top 250, and the reason the rankings always baffle me. Is it really going to help people have an edge on their league, or is it going to prevent them from taking the kind of risks that put fantasy teams over the top? In my opinion its just going to limit performance.
Nope. When you select the 2nd opinion projections, it only imports Bloom's projections for the current week -- the remaining forward weeks are still based on the forward projections by Bob Henry (the exact same ones that are shown when you select Dodds' weekly projections). If you look at the Pool WP/Team WP windows, you can confirm that the projections for future weeks do not change when you switch between Dodds and Bloom.can't you just use 2nd opinion in lineup dominator to see his rankings for rest of the year? it shows QB7, QB8, yadda, yadda, yadda....
display name
Footballguy
The projections are inherently inaccurate. There is just no way the RB production is going to break down in the manner that it is projected to break down this week. It isn't really going to be close to almost right. It gives the illusion of accuracy over a long period of time. The equivalent of this would be to project that a dice is going to roll out 3 every single time. Probability dictates that over the long run, I'll be right only 1 out of 6 times. However, probability also dictates that, the more times the dice is rolled, the more data gathered, the closer the average roll will be to 3. Projecting 3 every time knowing that, given enough rolls, the average dice roll will be 3, doesn't mean that projecting 3 every single roll is an accurate projection.
display name
Footballguy
I just don't see how I'm implying that guys like Manning, Peterson, Roddy White, etc, should ever be benched. Given the scarcity of productive players it would be hard to envision having anyone on your bench who would be a consideration over Adrian Peterson.
display name
Footballguy
Welker hasn't even been top 60 since week 2 in non-ppr leagues. He is WR51 if you include week 1. He had a late season blown ACL last year that he is recovering from. Moss is no longer there to open things up and draw the stronger coverages away from Welker.This is just how I see the situation. I don't think it looks that good for Welker going forward.
display name
Footballguy
Just to clarify, I don't feel like I espouse any single approach. But I do feel like trends need to be recognized and ridden. One trend I think is being missed on the top 250, and this is just one example, is Matt Schaub being very mediocre in terms of production this year. Anyone relying on Schaub being as good as the top 250 is predicting is going to be very disappointed.Could I be wrong? Sure. Guess we'll find out by seasons end.
I'm glad you mentioned the dice roll, because that's always the example I use when explaining the difference between Expectations and Expected Value.Let's say that I offer to play a game. I want to test your "prediction accuracy", so I offer you a game where you guess a number (any number) between 1 and 6, and then we roll a 6-sided die. Afterward, I'll pay you $5, minus the difference between your guess and the roll.
Now, you might play it by actually trying to guess the number. You might guess 1 a sixth of the time, and guess 3 a sixth of the time, and guess 6 a sixth of the time, and so on. Personally, I'd just guess "3.5" every single time. And you know what? After 1,000 rolls of the dice, I'd be walking away with more cash than you. Despite the fact that my guess was never once correct, the sum total of my guesses would have been more correct than your wild, dart-throwing method.
In week 6, Adrian Peterson got outscored by Willis McGahee. It happens. With that said, if you try to PREDICT when Peterson will get outscored by McGahee, you're just going to screw yourself over. You're far more likely to bench Peterson when he goes off for 30 points in favor of McGahee and his 3 points than you are to correctly guess the one week of the season where Peterson scores 10 points and McGahee manages to go for 12. If I owned Peterson and McGahee, I'll gladly take the knowledge that one week McGahee scored more points on my bench than Peterson did in my starting lineup. That doesn't bother me. I know I can't be right 100% of the time, and frankly, I make no effort to. There will never come a day when I'm starting McGahee over Peterson, even though I am well aware that McGahee will in fact throw up the higher score from time to time.
Again, the EV method will very rarely actually be right... but it will be MORE right (and by a fairly substantial margin) than trying to actually guess the exact final production of individual players on individual weeks. It just will. It's the superior projection method.
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Footballguy
If you look at the rankings I put forth for the remainder of the season, you'll realize I'm not guessing wildly. Am I projecting Willis McGahee to be a top 10 back because I have a feeling Ray Rice is going to be hurt? No.Yeah, probability plays a role to a certain extent. But to really get over the edge you need to be able to realize when, what you thought was probably going to happen, isn't going to happen. You need to adjust quickly to what is happening in the league. When I look at the top 250 forward, I see too much entrenchment in perceived value going forward. This is just my opinion. I offer second rankings here, and I guess by seasons end we'll see if they were any good. It could be that Dodds would feel he is 'pulling the rug out from under' his prior rankings. I do think his rankings become skewed by the fact that he has already put forth rankings on these players and that to change his mind too much may harm his credibility. That is why I think the top 250 is a flawed tool as it is currently presented. He doesn't want to have the Jahvid best ranking drop from top 5 or whatever he was at his highest in the top 250 forward way down to below top 20 in a matter of weeks. But owners who have been holding onto Best because of his consistently being overrated in the top 250 are getting burned.
I also try to give short explanations of why I think a player is ranked maybe higher than most would rank, maybe lower. I also give what I perceive to be possible upsides or downsides based on given situations. Look, like the rankings I give, take them into consideration, or don't.
I think little explanations in the top 250 would be a nice addition to what is going on in the head of the author.
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ThatsaDillyofaPickle
Footballguy
A 2nd opinion on the Top 250 Forward would be very much appreciated.
