Updated guess on the order as of today:
HOU
NYJ
GBP
SF
NOS
TEN
DET
OAK
I still say the Texans move that pick. If they can't, the obvioius pick is Ferguson. Not Bush. Not Leinart. Ferguson.If I were the GM and I had to pick at the spots shown here, here's my guess:
HOU - Ferguson (Sounds like they're keeping Carr.)
NYJ - Leinart (Duh. Pennington's done. Deal with it.)
GBP - Bush (Even bigger duh.)
SF - Hawk (Worst D in the league takes best defensive playmaker)
NOS - Greenway (Ditto)
TEN - Jimmy Williams (They play in a division with the Colts. More pass D, please.)
DET - Joe Thomas/Marcus McNeill (QB play dealt with through free agency)
OAK - Mathias Kiwanuka (Run dominated division dictates more defense)
If Brady Quinn and Omar Jacobs declare, this changes.
on the order - i think SF and NYJ are very close in SOS for the 2 spot, but GB is definitely the 4 right now. TEN and NO are also very close in SOS right now. in the 4-8 tier, BAL, BUF, ARI, DET, all look very close. OAK is getting killed by being in the tough AFC west.I am starting to wonder if Bush is going to have so much hype around him that the Texans will feel forced to take him, despite the glaring needs on the O-line. I think its becoming clearer that they wont take Leinart, and ideally would want to trade down and take a guy like Ferguson, Winston, or McNeill - but now the Bush hype train is in full force, and you're hearing names like Sayers and Faulk routinely thrown out in comparisons, the Texans could get crucified in the local sports press if they pass on him. I think McNair is severely concerned about lack of interest in the team locally, and Ferguson, while meeting a need, won't put butts in the seats. Bush will. As of right now, i would have Bush going to Houston.
I also think the 2nd most likely team to end up #1, the Niners, would also take Bush for a lot of the same reasons. It doesnt hurt that Bush and Alex Smith were teammates. The 3rd most likely #1 team, the Jets , well thats much tougher. Leinart and Bush both fill huge needs. The Jets are perfectly poised to jump on Leinart if Bush goes #1, either by having the #2, or trading up from a likely #3 or 4 to Texans or Niners, who would want Bush, but not Leinart.
The Pack is sitting pretty to take the best of the rest - either their #1 rated RB (Williams?), Hawk, Mario Williams (although i think they like Kampman). Im not sure how pressing a need OT is right now with Tauscher and Clifton signed long term, so they could be a very good candidate to trade down with a team that is hot for one of the OTs.
TEN and NO are in perfect position to grab either Hawk or one of the top OTs.
Here's a tentative top 10, with an order that might very well be off:
1. Houston Texans - Reggie Bush, RB/KR, USC
2. New York Jets - Matt Leinart, QB, USC
3. Detroit Lions (from SF) - D'brickashaw Ferguson, OT, UVA
4. Green Bay Packers - A.J. Hawk, LB, OSU
5. Tennessee Titans - Marcus McNeill, OT, Auburn
6. New Orleans Saints - Chad Greenway, LB, Iowa
7. Arizona Cardinals - Jimmy Williams, CB, Va Tech
8. Baltimore Ravens - Omar Jacobs, QB, Bowling Green
9. Buffalo Bills - Eric Winston, OT, Miami
10. San Francisco 49ers - Mario Williams, DE, NC St.