Torrey Smith 2013 Outlook (1 Viewer)

[FF Ninja]

I actively targeted Torrey Smith last year, as his ADP of WR28 was lower than his year end finish as a rookie who only started 14 games (WR23). I thought he was a great low risk, high ceiling player. In my mind he was the perfect guy to target as a WR2 if you waited or as your WR3. Flacco had regressed considerably during Smith's rookie year (7.4 ypa to 6.7 ypa) and he still finished as a low-end WR2. Should he progress as a WR and/or Flacco return to 2010 form, Smith would be a steal.

Well, Flacco did improve to 7.2 ypa, but Smith failed to take advantage. He wasn't a total flop (still finished above his draft position), but he did hit that floor I predicted - finishing WR23 for the second year in a row, despite seeing an increase in targets from 95 to 110.

year tar rec yds td rank2011 95 49 841 7 WR232012 110 50 855 8 WR23So far it looks like he'll be around the same ADP as last year, so is he simply a meager value play once again or does he finally take the next step? Does Boldin's departure help or hurt him?

He definitely appears to be a safer play than those going around him currently: Jennings, Wallace, DeSean, Shorts, James Jones, DX, Hilton. I'd argue that his upside rivals all of those guys, too, should he put it together this year and become Flacco's go to guy. Hell, just catching 55% of his targets would give him a significant bump without additional looks from Flacco.

I'm not a big believer in the Year 3 WR Theory, but I guess that's worth throwing into the conversation. I think that theory worked out because WRs often weren't thrust into the starting lineup until their 2nd or 3rd season. It just happened to work out that WRs often got their opportunity in year 3 more than they actually had a magical shift in their game.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

I think torrey is what he is. A kinda of a 1 trick pony who's a deep ball threat. I think his value is better in TD yardage length leagues or pure TD leagues than in PPR.

Unless the Ravens have a change in offensive philosophy, I expect his numbers to stay about the same. Even without boldin

 

[Lord Fantasy]

Thanks for starting this thread. I also had T. Smith last year and targeted him based on camp reports that the team was both trying to develop him into more of a route runner and planning on using him more creatively in the offense (other than go routes).

I watched a lot of Ravens games last year and noticed that

1. They didn't move him around as much as they said they would (which was frustrating because when Smith worked the middle he did well).

2. Smith struggled to beat jams at the line of scrimmage during press coverage. Stronger, more aggressive corners were able to take him out of games.

3. All Joe Flacco "targets" are not created equal. There was one game in particular (vs. the Steelers?) where Smith turned to make a catch only to watch the ball sail twelve feet over his head. This was one of many moments when Torrey had no chance to make a play.

I still like him because judging from interviews he seems like a smart young man who's a hard worker and eager to improve his craft. If he can continue to develop then he has a chance of being more than a one-trick pony, but like Sniffer says he may always be held back a bit by circumstances he can't control.

 

[FF Ninja]

I forgot to bring up that obviously he'll have a different OC than he had last year. Wasn't Cam Cameron fired around week 14?

And yes, all targets are not created equal. I can't find his particular stats, but he wasn't listed on a site that listed all players with 5 drops or more, so it appears he will thrive if Flacco could get more passes on target.

 

[Lord Fantasy]

What were his targets after week 14?

Week 15: 3 targets vs. Denver Week 16: 11 targets vs. NYG (and decent 5-88-1 stat line) Week 17: Starters rested Playoffs 4 targets vs. Colts 6 targets vs. Denver (but 2 TDs) No target data for the Patriots game but stat line was 4-69-0 Couldn't find a Super Bowl recap on FBG site but seem to remember some big plays

 

[FF Ninja]

What were his targets after week 14?

15 - 3

16 - 11

17 - 1

18 - 4

19 - 6

20 - 9

21 - 6

 

[Faust]

Ravens head coach John Harbaugh praised WR Torrey Smith for his leadership and progress on the field.
"We have a lot of leaders on this team, nobody less than Torrey Smith," said Harbaugh. ""He runs all the routes very well. Torrey is a guy that is only going to get better, because he works hard at it." With Anquan Boldin out of the mix, Smith will be counted on to make a bigger contribution in 2013. While we love his upside, we're not confident with Smith as anything more than a WR2 option.

Source: Baltimore Sun

 

[Faust]

Torrey Smith emerging as Baltimore Ravens' No. 1 WR

By Chris Wesseling

Around the League Writer

After the Baltimore Ravens traded Anquan Boldin to the San Francisco 49ers in March, Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith tweeted, "This business is BS at times."

Three months later, Smith realizes the team's younger receivers now will "lean on" him, but he doesn't believe the loss of Boldin affects his own game.

"A lot of people are talking about me being a No. 1 this season," Smith told Sports Illustrated's Don Banks on Thursday, "but I don't see much difference because last year I got double-teamed, and had the best cornerback guarding me basically every game. So in terms of the attention from defenses, I don't view it as any different."

What Smith will have to do differently is master the full route tree after concentrating primarily on downfield "go" routes during his first two seasons. Due to quarterback Joe Flacco's big arm and his tendency to take chances on downfield jump balls, Smith caught only 49 of the 110 passes thrown in his direction last season. That 45 percent success rate was among the league's worst.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh insists Smith has "adjusted quite well," is running all of the routes well this year and is filling the leadership void at the position.

"Torrey is a guy that is only going to get better, because he works hard at it," Harbaugh said Friday, via The Baltimore Sun. "We have a lot of leaders on this team, nobody less than Torrey Smith. Torrey's a great leader. He's been a leader in his family, high school. He was a leader the first day he got here in a lot of ways. He's a guy that we think a lot of."

We're confident that Smith will graduate from occasional flashes of brilliance to a top-25 NFL wide receiver. The question is if he finally earns Flacco's trust in key situations as Boldin did during the Ravens' Super Bowl run.

Follow Chris Wesseling on Twitter @ChrisWesseling.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I actively targeted Torrey Smith last year, as his ADP of WR28 was lower than his year end finish as a rookie who only started 14 games (WR23). I thought he was a great low risk, high ceiling player. In my mind he was the perfect guy to target as a WR2 if you waited or as your WR3. Flacco had regressed considerably during Smith's rookie year (7.4 ypa to 6.7 ypa) and he still finished as a low-end WR2. Should he progress as a WR and/or Flacco return to 2010 form, Smith would be a steal.

Well, Flacco did improve to 7.2 ypa, but Smith failed to take advantage. He wasn't a total flop (still finished above his draft position), but he did hit that floor I predicted - finishing WR23 for the second year in a row, despite seeing an increase in targets from 95 to 110.

year tar rec yds td rank2011 95 49 841 7 WR232012 110 50 855 8 WR23So far it looks like he'll be around the same ADP as last year, so is he simply a meager value play once again or does he finally take the next step? Does Boldin's departure help or hurt him?

He definitely appears to be a safer play than those going around him currently: Jennings, Wallace, DeSean, Shorts, James Jones, DX, Hilton. I'd argue that his upside rivals all of those guys, too, should he put it together this year and become Flacco's go to guy. Hell, just catching 55% of his targets would give him a significant bump without additional looks from Flacco.

I'm not a big believer in the Year 3 WR Theory, but I guess that's worth throwing into the conversation. I think that theory worked out because WRs often weren't thrust into the starting lineup until their 2nd or 3rd season. It just happened to work out that WRs often got their opportunity in year 3 more than they actually had a magical shift in their game.

Smith is a solid low-end WR2 or high-end WR3. And yes, he has upside compared to guys like Jennings, Shorts, etc. That said, my expectation for Smith sits below my expectation for Jennings, Wallace, DeSean, and possibly 1-2 others you mentioned. Why? Because a number of those players have superior route running, hands, ball skills. Smith is athletic and fast. But he doesn't look like, or frankly even play like, a football player. Rarely have I been impressed watching him play.

Losing Boldin will help on the margin, because Smith was already double-teamed last year, and frankly Boldin had no ability to create separation anymore so the defense keyed on either Ray Rice or Smith.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I actively targeted Torrey Smith last year, as his ADP of WR28 was lower than his year end finish as a rookie who only started 14 games (WR23). I thought he was a great low risk, high ceiling player. In my mind he was the perfect guy to target as a WR2 if you waited or as your WR3. Flacco had regressed considerably during Smith's rookie year (7.4 ypa to 6.7 ypa) and he still finished as a low-end WR2. Should he progress as a WR and/or Flacco return to 2010 form, Smith would be a steal.

Well, Flacco did improve to 7.2 ypa, but Smith failed to take advantage. He wasn't a total flop (still finished above his draft position), but he did hit that floor I predicted - finishing WR23 for the second year in a row, despite seeing an increase in targets from 95 to 110.

year tar rec yds td rank2011 95 49 841 7 WR232012 110 50 855 8 WR23So far it looks like he'll be around the same ADP as last year, so is he simply a meager value play once again or does he finally take the next step? Does Boldin's departure help or hurt him?

He definitely appears to be a safer play than those going around him currently: Jennings, Wallace, DeSean, Shorts, James Jones, DX, Hilton. I'd argue that his upside rivals all of those guys, too, should he put it together this year and become Flacco's go to guy. Hell, just catching 55% of his targets would give him a significant bump without additional looks from Flacco.

I'm not a big believer in the Year 3 WR Theory, but I guess that's worth throwing into the conversation. I think that theory worked out because WRs often weren't thrust into the starting lineup until their 2nd or 3rd season. It just happened to work out that WRs often got their opportunity in year 3 more than they actually had a magical shift in their game.

Smith is a solid low-end WR2 or high-end WR3. And yes, he has upside compared to guys like Jennings, Shorts, etc. That said, my expectation for Smith sits below my expectation for Jennings, Wallace, DeSean, and possibly 1-2 others you mentioned. Why? Because a number of those players have superior route running, hands, ball skills. Smith is athletic and fast. But he doesn't look like, or frankly even play like, a football player. Rarely have I been impressed watching him play.

Losing Boldin will help on the margin, because Smith was already double-teamed last year, and frankly Boldin had no ability to create separation anymore so the defense keyed on either Ray Rice or Smith.

Smith has his limitations, but the bolded is not true. I've been seeing this stuff about Smith being just a track-guy-who-plays-football since he came out of MD. Other than sharing a school with Heyward-Bey, I wonder where this comes from and if anyone who says this has ever watched him play.

Look, he's never going to be Cris Carter. But that kid can play his position fine and has done well when asked on crossing patterns and button-hooks. Go ask Champ Bailey.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I actively targeted Torrey Smith last year, as his ADP of WR28 was lower than his year end finish as a rookie who only started 14 games (WR23). I thought he was a great low risk, high ceiling player. In my mind he was the perfect guy to target as a WR2 if you waited or as your WR3. Flacco had regressed considerably during Smith's rookie year (7.4 ypa to 6.7 ypa) and he still finished as a low-end WR2. Should he progress as a WR and/or Flacco return to 2010 form, Smith would be a steal.

Well, Flacco did improve to 7.2 ypa, but Smith failed to take advantage. He wasn't a total flop (still finished above his draft position), but he did hit that floor I predicted - finishing WR23 for the second year in a row, despite seeing an increase in targets from 95 to 110.

year tar rec yds td rank2011 95 49 841 7 WR232012 110 50 855 8 WR23So far it looks like he'll be around the same ADP as last year, so is he simply a meager value play once again or does he finally take the next step? Does Boldin's departure help or hurt him?

He definitely appears to be a safer play than those going around him currently: Jennings, Wallace, DeSean, Shorts, James Jones, DX, Hilton. I'd argue that his upside rivals all of those guys, too, should he put it together this year and become Flacco's go to guy. Hell, just catching 55% of his targets would give him a significant bump without additional looks from Flacco.

I'm not a big believer in the Year 3 WR Theory, but I guess that's worth throwing into the conversation. I think that theory worked out because WRs often weren't thrust into the starting lineup until their 2nd or 3rd season. It just happened to work out that WRs often got their opportunity in year 3 more than they actually had a magical shift in their game.

Smith is a solid low-end WR2 or high-end WR3. And yes, he has upside compared to guys like Jennings, Shorts, etc. That said, my expectation for Smith sits below my expectation for Jennings, Wallace, DeSean, and possibly 1-2 others you mentioned. Why? Because a number of those players have superior route running, hands, ball skills. Smith is athletic and fast. But he doesn't look like, or frankly even play like, a football player. Rarely have I been impressed watching him play.

Losing Boldin will help on the margin, because Smith was already double-teamed last year, and frankly Boldin had no ability to create separation anymore so the defense keyed on either Ray Rice or Smith.

Smith has his limitations, but the bolded is not true. I've been seeing this stuff about Smith being just a track-guy-who-plays-football since he came out of MD. Other than sharing a school with Heyward-Bey, I wonder where this comes from and if anyone who says this has ever watched him play.

Look, he's never going to be Cris Carter. But that kid can play his position fine and has done well when asked on crossing patterns and button-hooks. Go ask Champ Bailey.

Perhaps it's because his route running is average at best. Or that, at least in the games I saw him play, he didn't attack the ball aggressively while it's in the air. Or maybe that I saw him drop wide-open balls early in his career and am irrationally anchoring on those moments.

Regardless, he's not a guy I ever expect to be anything but a solid WR2. And there is nothing wrong with that outcome, it just isn't anything to get too excited about either. I find it very difficult to build a defensible scenario where Torrey puts together a WR1 seasons.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

Oh, and another thing:

Before Cam got hacked, the biggest complaint was that he didn't use Ray Rice correctly. The second? That he sent Smith on fly patterns even on Wednesdays.

 

[Uruk-Hai]

I actively targeted Torrey Smith last year, as his ADP of WR28 was lower than his year end finish as a rookie who only started 14 games (WR23). I thought he was a great low risk, high ceiling player. In my mind he was the perfect guy to target as a WR2 if you waited or as your WR3. Flacco had regressed considerably during Smith's rookie year (7.4 ypa to 6.7 ypa) and he still finished as a low-end WR2. Should he progress as a WR and/or Flacco return to 2010 form, Smith would be a steal.

Well, Flacco did improve to 7.2 ypa, but Smith failed to take advantage. He wasn't a total flop (still finished above his draft position), but he did hit that floor I predicted - finishing WR23 for the second year in a row, despite seeing an increase in targets from 95 to 110.

year tar rec yds td rank2011 95 49 841 7 WR232012 110 50 855 8 WR23So far it looks like he'll be around the same ADP as last year, so is he simply a meager value play once again or does he finally take the next step? Does Boldin's departure help or hurt him?

He definitely appears to be a safer play than those going around him currently: Jennings, Wallace, DeSean, Shorts, James Jones, DX, Hilton. I'd argue that his upside rivals all of those guys, too, should he put it together this year and become Flacco's go to guy. Hell, just catching 55% of his targets would give him a significant bump without additional looks from Flacco.

I'm not a big believer in the Year 3 WR Theory, but I guess that's worth throwing into the conversation. I think that theory worked out because WRs often weren't thrust into the starting lineup until their 2nd or 3rd season. It just happened to work out that WRs often got their opportunity in year 3 more than they actually had a magical shift in their game.

Smith is a solid low-end WR2 or high-end WR3. And yes, he has upside compared to guys like Jennings, Shorts, etc. That said, my expectation for Smith sits below my expectation for Jennings, Wallace, DeSean, and possibly 1-2 others you mentioned. Why? Because a number of those players have superior route running, hands, ball skills. Smith is athletic and fast. But he doesn't look like, or frankly even play like, a football player. Rarely have I been impressed watching him play.

Losing Boldin will help on the margin, because Smith was already double-teamed last year, and frankly Boldin had no ability to create separation anymore so the defense keyed on either Ray Rice or Smith.

Smith has his limitations, but the bolded is not true. I've been seeing this stuff about Smith being just a track-guy-who-plays-football since he came out of MD. Other than sharing a school with Heyward-Bey, I wonder where this comes from and if anyone who says this has ever watched him play.

Look, he's never going to be Cris Carter. But that kid can play his position fine and has done well when asked on crossing patterns and button-hooks. Go ask Champ Bailey.

Perhaps it's because his route running is average at best. Or that, at least in the games I saw him play, he didn't attack the ball aggressively while it's in the air. Or maybe that I saw him drop wide-open balls early in his career and am irrationally anchoring on those moments.

Regardless, he's not a guy I ever expect to be anything but a solid WR2. And there is nothing wrong with that outcome, it just isn't anything to get too excited about either. I find it very difficult to build a defensible scenario where Torrey puts together a WR1 seasons.

Gracious.....who ever said he'd be a stud WR? I doubt you'd find a rational Ravens fan here who has posted that. As I said, he has his limitations. It's just that the general perception of Smith's abilities (at least, those I see) and the reality are two different things.

 

[KellysHeroes]

I don't think his stats are going to change much, maybe a slight increase but nothing for me to get excited about. I think the TEs will eat most of Boldin's targets

 

[Faust]

Where Torrey Smith has to raise his game

By Jamison Hensley | ESPN.com

Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Torrey Smith doesn't think there's going to be much of a change for him this year, when he has to replace Anquan Boldin as the team's No. 1 wide receiver.

“I don’t view it any different," Smith told the NFL Network. "I got double-teamed last year. It is not going to be a surprise if it happens. I generally had the best corner guard me last year, so it is no secret. I am ready for it.”

It's not a question as to whether Smith can beat double teams or the other team's best cornerback. What Smith has to prove is more consistency to his game. He had two or fewer catches in half of his games last season.

In order to increase his catches (he's never had more than 50 in a season), Smith has to become more of a target on shorter patterns and routes across the middle. As ESPN's Christopher Harris pointed out in a fantasy football post, Smith was targeted on 43 passes that traveled less than 10 yards last year. In comparison, Boldin had 61.

The same goes for going across the middle. Over the past two seasons, Smith has caught six passes in between the hashes while Boldin has had 26. I'm not questioning whether Smith has the toughness to duplicate Boldin's numbers. But I do wonder whether Smith has the size to do this. At 6-foot, 205 pounds, he's 15 pounds lighter than Boldin.

Much of Boldin's production over the middle could be picked up by tight ends Dennis Pitta and Ed Dickson. The Ravens, though, will still rely on Smith's presence on the outside, especially when you consider the other starting wide receiver will likely be either Jacoby Jones, Tandon Doss or Deonte Thompson.

"I came into the offseason, I felt like I was way farther along at that point then obviously I was the year before," Smith said. "And I feel like I’m way farther along now than at the end of the season, which is what it’s all about. You want to see progress and continue to grow and continue to get better. And I think I’m looking like how I want to look, getting there, obviously. To me, I still have a long way to go, and it’s about doing the right thing all the time.”

 

[Holy Schneikes]

I'm an owner, and I hope for the best. But I have to agree that he really isn't very aggressive with the ball in the air. His catch percentage is low. and it's not ALL play-calling (though that is a lot of it). I do think he has enough talent to be a #1 in fantasy if things break really well for him, but to me, a solid #2 is the more likely top end. He gets open, it's not that. He just doesn't have fantastic technique/instincts when actually catching the ball - which the best guys all have.

 

[Shawn]

Bump Smith. Pitta out, Boldin in San Fran the only competition I see smith having for catches is the rbs and I guess Dickson.

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

The Baltimore Sun believes Torrey Smith "is being counted on to increase his contribution" in the wake of Dennis Pitta's season-ending injury.
After losing Anquan Boldin to the salary cap and Pitta to a hip fracture, Smith and Ray Rice are the only Ravens left standing who caught more than 30 passes last season. Although the vertically-minded Smith won't be asked to directly replace the security blanket and seam role Pitta filled, he does figure to be a target monster. There's just no one else for Joe Flacco to throw to. If Smith can consistently and effectively run a full route tree this season, he'll break out in a big way.

Source: Baltimore Sun

 

[SWC]

since he may be the only skill player left by the time the season starts i think there is a good chance that he will get some thrown his way man i feel lousy for the bal team but at least red light ray is gone so they have that going fo rthem take that to the bank brohans

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Through five games, Torrey Smith ranks in the top three in the NFL in receiving yards, yards per catch, receptions of 25-plus yards, and yards after catch.
Also now beating double coverage, Smith has developed into a legitimate fantasy WR1 and top-15 NFL receiver. "Sometime last year, he became that guy that caught really everything you threw to him," said Joe Flacco. "And I think he’s becoming more and more of that guy." Smith has just three drops over his last 17 regular season games. He hasn't dropped a pass in any of the last seven.

Source: ESPN.com

 

[Faust]

Torrey Smith is the Ravens' most reliable weapon

 

[WiDDoW_MaKeR]

How does everyone see Torrey Smith for the rest of the year?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Bloom recently tweeted Torrey Smith as a buy low target. Citing the ROS schedule, the Ravens defense, brutal run game. Looks like TS and Flacco are undervalued.

I own neither, and am not compelled by Bloom's optimism. I never liked Smith, think he's too streaky of a player. Is there anyone buying low on Torrey and/or Flacco?

 

[FF Ninja]

I don't think I ended up drafting him in any leagues. I still felt like he was a safe pick where he went, but not an exciting one. I think in most leagues I ended up drafting Mathews in the round I would've drafted Torrey. :kickrock: That being said, my opinion hasn't changed much. Flacco has thrown the ball way more than anyone expected. If the run game comes around then Flacco's passes and Torrey's target should decrease but he should catch more than 1 td/8 games, though. I would buy low only if someone was selling him quite low. I'd place him around WR20 going forward.

 

[lod01]

Smith is a #2 WR forced to be the #1 on a team with Flacco at QB. Now draws #1 coverage and even double teams.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

Is Smith even the #1 on his own team going forward? In the last three games where both guys played (Brown missed the 10/6 Dolphins game), Marlon Brown has 21 targets and Smith has 18.

 

[Dizzy]

I have Smith and Garcon and they are both a handful of TD's away from being every week WR1's. Everything else is there; targets, catches, yards...

TD's are streaky, so I think Smith is definitely a buy low.

 

[KellysHeroes]

This is why I traded him for 2 1st rounders last off-season... hes a nice WR2 but hes not making that leap to WR1. Still young enough and he looked improved earlier this season so I wouldn't close the book yet.

 

[blake]

Bloom recently tweeted Torrey Smith as a buy low target. Citing the ROS schedule, the Ravens defense, brutal run game. Looks like TS and Flacco are undervalued.

I own neither, and am not compelled by Bloom's optimism. I never liked Smith, think he's too streaky of a player. Is there anyone buying low on Torrey and/or Flacco?

Thanks for this post, and like you, I'm not compelled either, but Flacco *has* been throwing a lot. That said, I'm not sure who would be selling him lower than his perceived value as a WR2. I'm not a huge fan of Smith either, but I am looking at acquiring Smith for depth at WR.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Offered Mendenhall and Hartline to the Ellington owner for Torrey. I'll let you all know if he accepts or declines.

 

[Ballstein]

Offered Mendenhall and Hartline to the Ellington owner for Torrey. I'll let you all know if he accepts or declines.

declined

 

[Faust]

Rotoworld:

Torrey Smith caught six passes for 93 yards and one touchdown in Baltimore's Week 13 win over the Steelers on Thursday night.

Smith was targeted a team-high ten times and has now found the end zone in three of his past four games. They were destined to come after Smith scored just once in the season's first half. Also, Smith and Joe Flacco connected on a deep ball again this week. The two hooked up on a 54-yard bomb to set up Smith's seven-yard touchdown two plays later in the first quarter. He and Ike Taylor were in a battle all night. Smith will be in the WR1 mix next week against Minnesota.

 

[Tango]

Bloom recently tweeted Torrey Smith as a buy low target. Citing the ROS schedule, the Ravens defense, brutal run game. Looks like TS and Flacco are undervalued.

I own neither, and am not compelled by Bloom's optimism. I never liked Smith, think he's too streaky of a player. Is there anyone buying low on Torrey and/or Flacco?

I traded for him in late September and effectively gave up James Jones. Smith ended up dropping lower in value through early November (even though he was Top 10 in the NFL in receiving yardage at that point...funny how fantasy-perception gets skewed), but now he's firmly back up beyond the trade-point in fantasy value and there's a good chance he will be a difference-maker this week as he crushed Jones in fantasy production yesterday.