Trade Value of a Stud (1 Viewer)

[Steel Dillo]

The talk about Vincent Jackson holding out all year got me to thinking about how missing a season affects a players trade value.

Would you attempt to trade/buy/hold a stud player in the prime of his career if you knew he was going to sit out the entire year for contract reasons?

What if the player got injured before the season and would be out for the season, but would be 100% healthy the following season?

 

[David Yudkin]

V-Jax likely wouldn't sit for the entire season and mostly would make an appearance in the 10th week to be able to get a year of service for this year. Not many guys end up sitting an entire season.

 

[Steel Dillo]

I don't want to make this thread about Jackson, just how the trade value would be affected for any stud in his prime who was going to miss a year.

 

[Travieso]

I could see doing each of these options depending upon the makeup of my team. It might be hardest to sell due to probably not getting fair value. If I had a team that was in rebuilding mode and/or a year or two away, I would definitely trade for someone sitting out a year...

 

[chook]

Good topic. Without wanting to make this a Jackson thread I've been thinking the same thing after weighing up the options of putting an offer to the V-Jax owner in our league. Rather than being in rebuild mode I probably have the 1-2 strongest list in the league, however see it as an opportunity to 'invest in the future' for a far reduced price while my team is capable of covering the loss.

Obviously if the player was suspended/sitting out for a year you don't have the worry of a reoccurred injury as you would with someone coming off major surgery, but you likely have many character issues to deal with so that in itself may lower the asking price.

Another thing to keep in mind is if that player gets traded during the suspension/holdout, his value may increase/decrease by no longer being in the situation/system you previously valued him by.

Taking the Jackson example, if he ended up in Cleveland after you had decided to bring him in at a discounted rate, you're pretty much gonna be on the losing end of the deal.

I agree however that for a team in total rebuild mode that these players are definite ways to get back to the top. They may never take the field for you; buy them when injured and trade them on for more reliable players when all the hype surrounding their comeback is taking place next preseason.

I know you said the player would be 100% fit the next season so it's a hypothetical question, but I just can't trust guys coming off huge injuries to come straight back in that healthy.

 

[SSOG]

To give an example from my dynasty league... in our dynasty startup back in 2007, one of the guys spent a 5th round pick on Michael Turner back when he was guaranteed to be backing up Tomlinson for another year. Not quite the same thing (since there was always the off chance that Tomlinson got injured, for instance), but it was essentially an example of a guy spending a high price to acquire a player who would have absolutely 0 value in year N.

 

[Steel Dillo]

I lean toward trading the stud for a younger up & comer who I feel comfortable with, plus any additional compenstion I could get.

Once again.....not to make this about Jackson, I traded him + a 4th in a dynasty league prior to his suspension for Jeremy Maclin + a 2nd. I thought that was a fair trade.

My thought process was:

1. Get a player who has a good chance of being a solid starter for me to replace the player I traded.

2. Add a relatively high draft pick where I'd have a shot at another player who could take his place if the I traded for tanks.

 

[SoopaCee]

the real question is:

do you draft him and stash him until he plays? (because at most drafts ppl will not draft him unless they get a good value, esp if he is still holding out at the end of Aug, (which is when my draft is)

or do you wait and fist fight on the WW for him after week 9?