Ministry of Pain
Footballguy
Cool, let's take a look back at history.2006: Not a lot of WR prospects2005: 1.03 Braylon Edwards...looks good but is limited with his QB1.07 Troy Williamson...starting to look like a possible bust and eating up roster space.1.10 Mike Williams...BUST!1.21 Matt Jones....has had injuries but isn't reminding anyone of a top10 WR at this point.1.22 Mark Clayton...started to really make strides the 2nd half of last season.1.27 Roddy White...all is quiet on the SouthEastern FrontThose were 6 WR that were probably all taken in the 1st round of most rookie drafts...none of them is setting the world on fire yet...and out of all of them there is probably only 1 I would really enjoy owning right now and that is Clayton. Edwards may still live up to his pick but he really limited in that offense.5 more WR were selected in the 2nd round...Reg Brown, Bradley, Roscoe Parrish, Terrence Murphy, and VJax...Brown seems to be the winner so far. 2004:1.03 Fitzgerald...franchise potential1.07 Roy WIlliams...top10 WR in dynasty leagues although I am not as high on him as others.1.09 Reggie Williams...nowhere close to the draft slot yet.1.13 Lee Evans...one of the best young WR in the NFL1.15 Michael Clayton...started strong...hope owners sold after his rookie year. If Clavin Johnson is drafted then Clayton will see even less value.1.29 Michael Jenkins...a WR4 at best in most leagues1.31 Rashaun Woods...BUST!3 out of these top7 is really worth a start every week. I understand WR take time to develop but you can't have a roster full of them unless you just want to give your money away every year in dynasty leagues.2003:1.02 Charles Rogers...BUST!1.03 Andre Johnson...lots of potential...QB is not helping him.1.17 Bryant Johnson...I won't say bust but he is not getting the opp to start. Either he needs Boldin sent packing or he needs a change of scenery.2.12 Taylor Jacobs...BUST!2.13 Bethel Johnson...BUST to this point2.22 Anquan Boldin...probably a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick in rookie Dynasty drafts that year. 2.28 Tyrone Calico...BUST!2002:1.13 Donte Stallworth...teases us.1.19 Ashlie Lelie...BUST!1.20 Javon Walker...one of the WR you want on your roster right now.2.01 Jabar Gaffney...BUST2.04 Josh Reed...BUST2.14 Tim Carter...BUST2.15 Andre Davis...BUST2.16 Reche Caldwell...probably not in anyone's top25-30 radar right now2.30 Randel EL...not much really.2.31 Antonio Bryant...average to fair2.33 Deion Branch...probably an early 3rd rounder in rookie Dynast drafts tops.2001: 6 1st rounders1.08 David Terrell...BUST1.09 Koren Robinson...had 1 good season...otherwise BUST!1.15 Rod Gardner...showed a flash early...now Bust!1.16 Santana Moss...one of the few that panned out1.25 Freddie Mitchell...BUST1.30 Reggie Wayne...benefitted by going to a good team to begin with and having the best QB in the league.2.01 Quincy Morgan...BUST2.04 Chad Johnson...heard he's pretty good.2.09 Robert Ferguson...borderline WW fodder in a lot of leagues2.20 Chris Chambers...I hope he can turn it around3.10 Steve Smith...just thought I would throw that in.You can see there are a lot of 1st round busts...or at the least, very mediocre picks. Travis Henry is probably a top12 RB at this point...to trade him for a project WR IMO is risky. There will be very few RB available at the 1.08 where this individual will be picking as well. Bush, Irons, Pittman...I would expect them all to be off the board...you are looking at guys like Ginn/Jarrett/Rice at that pick unless you go towards a QB which is also pretty risky.Thanks Colin, I enjoyed looking this stuff up.People don't often evaluate Wrs on the right timeline. Getting a WR early - before his 4th or 5th season - should be considered a bet for later. There are a TON of WRs who could have easily been labeled busts who produced later on. The good news is, the price comes down. For example, there is no doubt in my mind that a guy like Donte Stallworth will outproduce the 3rd WR taken in the upcoming draft over the next 2-3 years. That said, the person sitting on 1.7 isn't likely going to move the pick for Stallworth. More likely, a nice 2nd rounder would get the job done.50% of the 1st/2nd round WR in this year's draft will be complete busts. Rice, Meachem, Bowe, Ginn, Jarrett, JohnnieLee, and yes Calvin Johnson...they can't all be superstars.