Trent Richardson (1 Viewer)

[MAC_32]

Elite RB's excel regardless of their situation - see MJD. I think Richardson is the next elite RB. Situation matters much, much more when it comes to WR's than it does RB's.

 

[DoubleG]

He's the #1 dynasty RB. I don't think anyone who owns him would trade him straight up for any other RB.He's 21 and will be a top 10 FF RB this season while playing on a bad offense that can't get worse. If you don't own him sell the farm to get him in any keeper/dynasty league.

Richardson owner in my league is willing to trade Richardson and change for Rice. And, as the Rice owner, I'm not willing to take his offer.

So if I understand your dynasty logic correctly (based on other threads), you are of the mind that Rice > Richardson, correct? Again, not putting words in your mouth - just that I was under the impression given your other dynasty threads that in trade you always prefer the better talent.

I'm a believer in heavily weighting the talent component, but the talent component is not 100%. I don't have Roethlisberger and JStew in the top 5 at their respective positions, which is what their talent would demand. Situation still matters some. Rice's situation has him dramatically more productive in the short term (beyond just this season, IMO). Richardson gets dinged a bit because he plays for the Browns, who are fantasy career killers. I wouldn't be surprised to see Richardson follow the Steven Jackson career path- obviously one of the best talents in the league whose best years are spent carrying a poor franchise on his back and underwhelming in fantasy. I think Richardson is more talented than Rice, but it's extremely close (Rice gets underrated because, to borrow an EBFism, he's sneaky good while someone like Richardson is more freaky good). Meanwhile, Rice is in a much better position to succeed. If both players were the same age, I don't think we'd even be having this conversation. As it stands, Rice is older, but if guys like MJD and Peterson are any indication, he's easily got 3 more top-5 finishes left in his legs. At least.

Really weird analysis. Different strokes for different folks.

No it makes sense. The other advantage Rice has is that he does have a proven track record - and part of that record is the fact that he has stayed healthy. Rice has missed 3 games in 3 years - for and RB that touches the ball as often as he does, that's pretty amazing. I would definately say that the health/track record makes up for the difference in talent (which is, as SSOG pointed out, a fairly small gap). Situation for the next 2-3 years could easily be the little edge in Rice's favor. I just was curious as to SSOG's reasoning - which does make sense.

 

[SSOG]

Elite RB's excel regardless of their situation - see MJD. I think Richardson is the next elite RB. Situation matters much, much more when it comes to WR's than it does RB's.

Steven Jackson would disagree.

 

[MAC_32]

Elite RB's excel regardless of their situation - see MJD. I think Richardson is the next elite RB. Situation matters much, much more when it comes to WR's than it does RB's.

Steven Jackson would disagree.

Steven Jackson has battled muscle injuries his whole career - hammy, quad, now his groin. He never got his shot to hit his stride because he couldn't stay at or near 100% for long periods of time. Absolute menace when healthy though.

 

[DoubleG]

Elite RB's excel regardless of their situation - see MJD. I think Richardson is the next elite RB. Situation matters much, much more when it comes to WR's than it does RB's.

Steven Jackson would disagree.

Jackson is an interesting comparison - but the one thing that has always struck me as odd about SJax is that for some reason, he just cant get into the endzone. In 8 seasons (2100+ rushing attempts) he has a meager 52 rushing TDs - that's 6.5 a season. MJD, by comparison has 63 - in 6 seasons (so 10.5 instead of 6.5). That is a HUGE difference. The two seasons SJax had double digit TDs, he was a top 3 RB in FF. I don't know where I stand on this one. SJax is certainly talented - but perhaps the whole "TDs are fairly random" thing really applies to his whole career.

 

[cvnpoka]

Good thing Cleveland is well coached:52 pass attempts vs. 14 runs in a close game when nobody on Baltimore wanted to tackle T Rich.

Let alone in a game that was relatively close the whole way through. At least we know that he will be consistently involved in the passing game - these 4-5 catches per week make him extremely valuable. Top 5 RB finish would not surprise me.

What's insane is the he's still barely on the field on 3rd downs. And he will be. We'd be looking at 7-8 catches most likely.

he missed all of training camp and the coaches have said he will eventually get the 3rd down work. its not insane at all. he obv still needs to learn the 3rd down and 2minute role. when he does, the coaches will put him in.

 

[ConnSKINS26]

Good thing Cleveland is well coached:52 pass attempts vs. 14 runs in a close game when nobody on Baltimore wanted to tackle T Rich.

Let alone in a game that was relatively close the whole way through. At least we know that he will be consistently involved in the passing game - these 4-5 catches per week make him extremely valuable. Top 5 RB finish would not surprise me.

What's insane is the he's still barely on the field on 3rd downs. And he will be. We'd be looking at 7-8 catches most likely.

he missed all of training camp and the coaches have said he will eventually get the 3rd down work. its not insane at all. he obv still needs to learn the 3rd down and 2minute role. when he does, the coaches will put him in.

No. Read more closely and follow the discussion. Its insane to think what numbers he will put up once he's the full-time 3rd down back is what I was saying.

 

[cvnpoka]

ahh, sorry i should have quoted the post below yours.

 

[SSOG]

Elite RB's excel regardless of their situation - see MJD. I think Richardson is the next elite RB. Situation matters much, much more when it comes to WR's than it does RB's.

Steven Jackson would disagree.

Jackson is an interesting comparison - but the one thing that has always struck me as odd about SJax is that for some reason, he just cant get into the endzone. In 8 seasons (2100+ rushing attempts) he has a meager 52 rushing TDs - that's 6.5 a season. MJD, by comparison has 63 - in 6 seasons (so 10.5 instead of 6.5). That is a HUGE difference. The two seasons SJax had double digit TDs, he was a top 3 RB in FF. I don't know where I stand on this one. SJax is certainly talented - but perhaps the whole "TDs are fairly random" thing really applies to his whole career.

32nd, 26th, 32nd, 30th, and 28th. Those are St. Louis's ranks in scoring offense over the last 5 seasons. They've scored 102 TDs over the last 5 seasons, and Jackson has punched in 30 of them. Jacksonville, meanwhile, ranked 28th, 18th, and 24th in the last three seasons. They've scored 95 TDs (almost as many in 3 years as St Louis has in 5), and Jones-Drew has 34 of them. Jones-Drew has scored 35.8% of his team's TDs since becoming a full-time starter, while Jackson has grabbed 29.4% since the beginning of 2007. Both percentages are close, well within the margin of error. The difference between MJD's TD total and SJax's TD total is the difference between playing in a bad offense and playing in an historically inept offense.

 

[DoubleG]

32nd, 26th, 32nd, 30th, and 28th. Those are St. Louis's ranks in scoring offense over the last 5 seasons. They've scored 102 TDs over the last 5 seasons, and Jackson has punched in 30 of them. Jacksonville, meanwhile, ranked 28th, 18th, and 24th in the last three seasons. They've scored 95 TDs (almost as many in 3 years as St Louis has in 5), and Jones-Drew has 34 of them. Jones-Drew has scored 35.8% of his team's TDs since becoming a full-time starter, while Jackson has grabbed 29.4% since the beginning of 2007. Both percentages are close, well within the margin of error. The difference between MJD's TD total and SJax's TD total is the difference between playing in a bad offense and playing in an historically inept offense.

Ahhhh...but do you think the Browns are merely bad? Or historically inept? Seriously, I think they are somewhere between the two - but with the addition of a WR or 2...with hands that actually work - that could nudge them up to just above "bad". I think another factor is that Clevland's defense is actually decent (the Rams d was pretty bad, IIRC)

 

[Kree]

Elite RB's excel regardless of their situation - see MJD. I think Richardson is the next elite RB. Situation matters much, much more when it comes to WR's than it does RB's.

Steven Jackson would disagree.

It's interesting, because IIRC you always used to talk up McNabb on a PPG basis. They might never have been stud years, but SJax had his prime years cut down due to injury, just like McNabb, when on a ypg average he would have topped 1500 yards comfortably.After topping yards from scrimmage in 06...07 - 8th in rushing yards per game, extrapolating the data, he enters the top 5 in yards from scrimmage.08 - 5th in rushing yards per game, again, he jumps up to number on in yfs (Not extrapolating anyone else's data, but he's still comfortably up there)09 - 3rd in rushing yards per game, 5th in yards from scrimmageSince 08 in my non-ppr hes finished 13th-12th-8th-13th-10th. Obviously TDs is the variation here, but Richardson has already shown an affinity for the end zone that SJax never really showed IMO.Not saying SJax wouldn't have done better elsewhere, but considering his knees in recent years, as well as losing out big time in prime years, I wouldn't say he's done too badly for himself.Couldn't really split Rice and Richardson tbh. Prefer Rice, but that might be bias on account of being so high on him coming out of college in comparison to most people I knew.

 

[SSOG]

Elite RB's excel regardless of their situation - see MJD. I think Richardson is the next elite RB. Situation matters much, much more when it comes to WR's than it does RB's.

Steven Jackson would disagree.

It's interesting, because IIRC you always used to talk up McNabb on a PPG basis. They might never have been stud years, but SJax had his prime years cut down due to injury, just like McNabb, when on a ypg average he would have topped 1500 yards comfortably.After topping yards from scrimmage in 06...07 - 8th in rushing yards per game, extrapolating the data, he enters the top 5 in yards from scrimmage.08 - 5th in rushing yards per game, again, he jumps up to number on in yfs (Not extrapolating anyone else's data, but he's still comfortably up there)09 - 3rd in rushing yards per game, 5th in yards from scrimmageSince 08 in my non-ppr hes finished 13th-12th-8th-13th-10th. Obviously TDs is the variation here, but Richardson has already shown an affinity for the end zone that SJax never really showed IMO.Not saying SJax wouldn't have done better elsewhere, but considering his knees in recent years, as well as losing out big time in prime years, I wouldn't say he's done too badly for himself.Couldn't really split Rice and Richardson tbh. Prefer Rice, but that might be bias on account of being so high on him coming out of college in comparison to most people I knew.

Yeah, I'm big on ppg numbers. The problem is, switching to ppg doesn't really help Jackson. Sure, in 2007 it bumps him from 14th to 7th, and in 2008 it bumps him from 13th to 3rd (getting him a second career top 5 finish). On the other hand, from 2009-2011, it drops him from 10th/14th/11th to 12th/16th/12th. Somehow, I doubt many Richardson owners would be happy with a pair of 3rd place finishes, a 7th place finish, and then a string of seasons as an extremely low-end RB1 / high-end RB2.

 

[Cato]

Where are the guys that bashed Richardson just because I don't believe in Mark Ingram?

People were doing this? Wow. Trying to remember the Zen expression, something like " a flower might die even if you love it, a weed will grow even if you don't." Trent has every chance to be a great player, but this seems completely independent of whether anybody here wins a message board debate on this fact or on who liked him the most first.

Zen Buddhist Fantasy Football...the quote's attributed to Dogen Zenji"A flower falls, even though we love it; and a weed grows, even though we do not love it." as well as the very similar, "Do not arouse disdainful mind when you prepare a broth of wild grasses; do not arouse joyful mind when you prepare a fine cream soup. "

Cool. Thanks for the exact quote. And yes, I think it may have some application in fantasy football. I don't like Ingram at the original price I paid for him, but I may buy him at his new lower price. I do like Trent, but I may consider selling him high. Or I may hold in both situations. I don't love or hate any player, all have value. Trick is to get out quick, if you see the bottom about to fall out, Moreno, Chris Johnson, Addai, etc. Or jump in quick if you see a player about to explode. (Jamaal Charles, Matt Ryan.)So yeah the goal is to be zen in fantasy football, not sure I will ever actually get there.

 

[Kree]

Elite RB's excel regardless of their situation - see MJD. I think Richardson is the next elite RB. Situation matters much, much more when it comes to WR's than it does RB's.

Steven Jackson would disagree.

It's interesting, because IIRC you always used to talk up McNabb on a PPG basis. They might never have been stud years, but SJax had his prime years cut down due to injury, just like McNabb, when on a ypg average he would have topped 1500 yards comfortably.After topping yards from scrimmage in 06...07 - 8th in rushing yards per game, extrapolating the data, he enters the top 5 in yards from scrimmage.08 - 5th in rushing yards per game, again, he jumps up to number on in yfs (Not extrapolating anyone else's data, but he's still comfortably up there)09 - 3rd in rushing yards per game, 5th in yards from scrimmageSince 08 in my non-ppr hes finished 13th-12th-8th-13th-10th. Obviously TDs is the variation here, but Richardson has already shown an affinity for the end zone that SJax never really showed IMO.Not saying SJax wouldn't have done better elsewhere, but considering his knees in recent years, as well as losing out big time in prime years, I wouldn't say he's done too badly for himself.Couldn't really split Rice and Richardson tbh. Prefer Rice, but that might be bias on account of being so high on him coming out of college in comparison to most people I knew.

Yeah, I'm big on ppg numbers. The problem is, switching to ppg doesn't really help Jackson. Sure, in 2007 it bumps him from 14th to 7th, and in 2008 it bumps him from 13th to 3rd (getting him a second career top 5 finish). On the other hand, from 2009-2011, it drops him from 10th/14th/11th to 12th/16th/12th. Somehow, I doubt many Richardson owners would be happy with a pair of 3rd place finishes, a 7th place finish, and then a string of seasons as an extremely low-end RB1 / high-end RB2.

Yeah, but it was pretty clear IMO that he wasn't the same RB he was from 05-08. And even still, in Dynasty, given how quickly things turn over, on a PPG basis 5/6 years as a RB, three of them in the upper half of that category, you could do a lot worse considering how bad the team was on O during that time. I happen to think Richardson is more talented and will simply produce the same way.

 

[sholditch]

I don't see how Jackson is similar at all. Trent has a very different running style that I think is simply better. He keeps his center of gravity lower, uses his pads better, is way stronger, and doesn't jump through the line like sjax. That's no slight to sjax, just think Trent is a notch above in terms of talent/potential.

 

[Todem]

It is so obvious how talented and how good Trent Richardson is/going to be.

Plain as day.

A superb talent who will only get better and better as the season rolls on. And next year he will be one of the best in the business. Heck he already is IMO despite his output right now. Such a rare combo of power and speed. Think ADP. That is what this kid brings to the table.

 

[Todem]

I don't see how Jackson is similar at all. Trent has a very different running style that I think is simply better. He keeps his center of gravity lower, uses his pads better, is way stronger, and doesn't jump through the line like sjax. That's no slight to sjax, just think Trent is a notch above in terms of talent/potential.

I would say 3 notches. I see no comparison at all. YOu pointed out how different their running styles are.And although I compare his speed and power to ADP.....he runs lower than ADP.

 

[ponchsox]

TRich on pace for 1,376 total yards and 16 TDs despite being underused on a bad offense.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

he runs lower than ADP.

This should be good in the long run as far as staying healthy, less of a target.

 

[Banger]

He looks better than Ingram

 

[DoubleG]

I don't see how Jackson is similar at all. Trent has a very different running style that I think is simply better. He keeps his center of gravity lower, uses his pads better, is way stronger, and doesn't jump through the line like sjax. That's no slight to sjax, just think Trent is a notch above in terms of talent/potential.

I don't think the comparison was looking at running styles, body type, etc. I think we were more looking at usage patterns, being the centerpiece on a bad offense, both being 3 down backs, etc.ETA: Actually, I think the best comp in terms of measurables and skill set is LT2. I don't know if people didn't realize Richardson was a good pass catcher in college, or are just being lazy by comparing him to Ingram all the time (no offense to Banger abover - I realize he is just responding to some of the goofs in this thread)

 

[LivingTheDream]

LT had better lateral movement and acceleration.

T Rich more power.

How about Ricky Williams for a comp? (although T Rich is a little more explosive and isn't a complete headcase).

 

[Proximo]

TRich on pace for 1,376 total yards and 16 TDs despite being underused on a bad offense.

IMO, the offense is adequate. Weeden looked pretty decent out there for the most part.

 

[Alluro]

LT had better lateral movement and acceleration. T Rich more power.How about Ricky Williams for a comp? (although T Rich is a little more explosive and isn't a complete headcase).

Definitely closer to Ricky than LT, but I like his lateral agility more than Ricky. Maybe a hybrid of the two in terms of running style.

 

[sholditch]

I don't see how Jackson is similar at all. Trent has a very different running style that I think is simply better. He keeps his center of gravity lower, uses his pads better, is way stronger, and doesn't jump through the line like sjax. That's no slight to sjax, just think Trent is a notch above in terms of talent/potential.

I don't think the comparison was looking at running styles, body type, etc. I think we were more looking at usage patterns, being the centerpiece on a bad offense, both being 3 down backs, etc.ETA: Actually, I think the best comp in terms of measurables and skill set is LT2. I don't know if people didn't realize Richardson was a good pass catcher in college, or are just being lazy by comparing him to Ingram all the time (no offense to Banger abover - I realize he is just responding to some of the goofs in this thread)

Hard to see how that escaped the notice of anyone who was paying attention. Yet his moronic coach still uses silent g on most passing downs. Can't wait til the new regime comes in and replaces Weeden and their scrubs at wr.

 

[dickey moe]

He looks better than Ingram

Ya think?

 

[Multiple Scores]

He looks better than Ingram

Ya think?

Quite a few people didn't believe this headed into week 2. Common sense is not always common enough.

 

[FUBAR]

Where are the guys that bashed Richardson just because I don't believe in Mark Ingram?

People were doing this? Wow. Trying to remember the Zen expression, something like " a flower might die even if you love it, a weed will grow even if you don't." Trent has every chance to be a great player, but this seems completely independent of whether anybody here wins a message board debate on this fact or on who liked him the most first.

Zen Buddhist Fantasy Football...the quote's attributed to Dogen Zenji"A flower falls, even though we love it; and a weed grows, even though we do not love it." as well as the very similar, "Do not arouse disdainful mind when you prepare a broth of wild grasses; do not arouse joyful mind when you prepare a fine cream soup. "

Cool. Thanks for the exact quote. And yes, I think it may have some application in fantasy football. I don't like Ingram at the original price I paid for him, but I may buy him at his new lower price. I do like Trent, but I may consider selling him high. Or I may hold in both situations. I don't love or hate any player, all have value. Trick is to get out quick, if you see the bottom about to fall out, Moreno, Chris Johnson, Addai, etc. Or jump in quick if you see a player about to explode. (Jamaal Charles, Matt Ryan.)So yeah the goal is to be zen in fantasy football, not sure I will ever actually get there.

Most of us have Zen moments but dont consistently apply it. I sat too long with LT and might be with AJ but was lucky enough to get TRich this spring for dez and my 13 1st. And traded Chris Johnson for RWhite (basically) I don't know that I would rank rich as the #1 player in dynasty but it would take Calvin Johnson or a good package of young talent for me to consider trading. Not for style but for situation he reminds me of Peterson more than anyone. Similar level of talent.

 

[ImTheScientist]

Is he a Top 5 pick next year in redraft?

 

[Xue]

The difference in success between SJax and MJD is that the Jaguars actually have good run-blocking.

 

[DocHolliday]

Is he a Top 5 pick next year in redraft?

Too early for those predictions. T Richardson is playing well. His value next year will depend on how well he plays but also on his health and the Cleveland O.

 

[MAC_32]

Is he a Top 5 pick next year in redraft?

Yes, thought he was worth the #4 pick this year pre-surgery. Hopefully the new regime will lean on him more in the 2nd half after he's worn the defense down. I wish I'd have just trusted my pre-surgery evaluation of him but then again couldn't project an injury happening to Forte too - got him instead of Richardson across the board. It happens.

 

[Vision6]

I'd say he's a Rich man's Ricky Williams

pretty scary

 

[Leonard Henry -2 Yds]

"Well we clocked the T-Rich at 32 miles per hour"

"T-T-Rich?"

"Mmmhmm"

"You said you've got a T-Rich?"

"Uh huh"

"Say again?"

"We have a T-Rich!"

- John Hammond, Jurassic Park

 

[Todem]

Is he a Top 5 pick next year in redraft?

By year end I think he will be.

 

[Wrigley]

Traded A Johnson for him before yesterdays game.

 

[FUBAR]

Traded A Johnson for him before yesterdays game.

Assume redraft. Still a good deal imo.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Not sure 3.5 ypc is going to get him to Mega Star levels this year.

 

[ponchsox]

Not sure 3.5 ypc is going to get him to Mega Star levels this year.

Do you expect him to average 5 ypc with defenses stacking the box against Cleveland? There were plenty of occasions where he turned what would be a loss into a positive play because defenders were already in the backfield when the ball was snapped.

 

[flc735]

Not sure 3.5 ypc is going to get him to Mega Star levels this year.

16 touchdowns will

 

[footballnerd]

Not sure 3.5 ypc is going to get him to Mega Star levels this year.

good thing we also count reception yards....just put up 100+ on the Ravens. Mega Star.

 

[Wrigley]

Traded A Johnson for him before yesterdays game.

Assume redraft. Still a good deal imo.

yes,redraft.Tons of WR depth(Julio/Harvin), and had Bush injured.....RB depth is a must.

 

[Gopher State]

Not sure 3.5 ypc is going to get him to Mega Star levels this year.

16 touchdowns will

 

[GDogg]

He's the #1 dynasty RB. I don't think anyone who owns him would trade him straight up for any other RB.He's 21 and will be a top 10 FF RB this season while playing on a bad offense that can't get worse. If you don't own him sell the farm to get him in any keeper/dynasty league.

Richardson owner in my league is willing to trade Richardson and change for Rice. And, as the Rice owner, I'm not willing to take his offer.

So if I understand your dynasty logic correctly (based on other threads), you are of the mind that Rice > Richardson, correct? Again, not putting words in your mouth - just that I was under the impression given your other dynasty threads that in trade you always prefer the better talent.

I'm a believer in heavily weighting the talent component, but the talent component is not 100%. I don't have Roethlisberger and JStew in the top 5 at their respective positions, which is what their talent would demand. Situation still matters some. Rice's situation has him dramatically more productive in the short term (beyond just this season, IMO). Richardson gets dinged a bit because he plays for the Browns, who are fantasy career killers. I wouldn't be surprised to see Richardson follow the Steven Jackson career path- obviously one of the best talents in the league whose best years are spent carrying a poor franchise on his back and underwhelming in fantasy. I think Richardson is more talented than Rice, but it's extremely close (Rice gets underrated because, to borrow an EBFism, he's sneaky good while someone like Richardson is more freaky good). Meanwhile, Rice is in a much better position to succeed. If both players were the same age, I don't think we'd even be having this conversation. As it stands, Rice is older, but if guys like MJD and Peterson are any indication, he's easily got 3 more top-5 finishes left in his legs. At least.

Great post. And, I'm someone who prefers Richardson to Rice at the moment.Because I think they are both so close overall, I might stick with Rice in dynasty, too. I can't fault this thought process.

 

[GDogg]

Elite RB's excel regardless of their situation - see MJD. I think Richardson is the next elite RB. Situation matters much, much more when it comes to WR's than it does RB's.

The thing is, though, it's really tough to separate the MJDs from the non-MJDs. I've been a fan of MJD longer than most here, but I've found myself constantly doubting him and having him on my bench early in his career because of his "situation." At some point, it became clear that the bench/start rules with regard to him and his "situation" simply didn't apply to him. Play him or watch him score on your bench at your own peril.I think Richardson is the same, but who knows. I can't say that I'd be really confident starting him against the Ravens, Jets, 49ers, Cardinals, etc. But, I'd probably do it anyway.For every MJD there is another "elite" RB who is one of the 20+ RBs or so in a row that get stuffed by the 49ers and you don't want to play them. MJD, at this point (and even at the beginning of his career) is virtually matchup proof. You don't know that any RB is matchup proof until they've proven they are.

 

[Multiple Scores]

Not sure 3.5 ypc is going to get him to Mega Star levels this year.

Still like Ingram more?

 

[Dr Octagon]

he outperformed rice last night

ill take it

 

[GDogg]

The difference in success between SJax and MJD is that the Jaguars actually have good run-blocking.

That and a whole lot of other things.

 

[Xue]

Not sure 3.5 ypc is going to get him to Mega Star levels this year.

LaDainian Tomlinson was at 3.6 his rookie year.

 

[cvnpoka]

his best carry was the 8 yard gain after being stuffed at the los where he just pushed the pile. dude has unreal power and drive. not sure if it will last for yrs and it may even result in him getting injured. often i just wish my stud rb will just go down when dudes are hangin on him and others are taking shots. anyway, hes an incredible talent. but i aint no scout.