Trip's Top 4 FF Rookie Busts (1 Viewer)

[Hot Sauce Guy]

More importantly accuracy and touch are two of the more difficult things to teach QBs. Particularly if you have to breakdown a lifetime of muscle memory (footwork, release etc) to do it.

And in ARich’s case, his short area accuracy issues have been largely attributed to his footwork, which is coachable.

I’m not making a sweeping generalization, I’m specking to this one player based on what I’ve read/heard from scouts and writers who are far more adept than myself who made this observation.

In general I’d agree. But specific to ARich, his deep accuracy is reportedly pretty solid., even on the move.

Time will tell if those observers are correct. I’m optimistic.

 

[Chaka]

More importantly accuracy and touch are two of the more difficult things to teach QBs. Particularly if you have to breakdown a lifetime of muscle memory (footwork, release etc) to do it.

And in ARich’s case, his short area accuracy issues have been largely attributed to his footwork, which is coachable.

I’m not making a sweeping generalization, I’m specking to this one player based on what I’ve read/heard from scouts and writers who are far more adept than myself who made this observation.

In general I’d agree. But specific to ARich, his deep accuracy is reportedly pretty solid., even on the move.

Time will tell if those observers are correct. I’m optimistic.

Short ball accuracy requires touch passing as well as excellent ball placement.

If he's used throwing full bore 50 yards down field and doing the same 7 yards down field that isn't an easy coaching fix. It may be fixable but it really depends on correctly diagnosing the exact nature of the problem, the correct fix and the coachability of the player.

The good news is by all accounts Richardson has a great work ethic.

But all the theory in the world goes out the window when Jeffery Simmons is coming at you full bore ready to steal your lunch money.

And "experts" are looking for likes just like the rest of us. Ask 30 of them and see if you get a consensus on what Richardson's issues are and how to fix them.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

More importantly accuracy and touch are two of the more difficult things to teach QBs. Particularly if you have to breakdown a lifetime of muscle memory (footwork, release etc) to do it.

And in ARich’s case, his short area accuracy issues have been largely attributed to his footwork, which is coachable.

I’m not making a sweeping generalization, I’m specking to this one player based on what I’ve read/heard from scouts and writers who are far more adept than myself who made this observation.

In general I’d agree. But specific to ARich, his deep accuracy is reportedly pretty solid., even on the move.

Time will tell if those observers are correct. I’m optimistic.

Short ball accuracy requires touch passing as well as excellent ball placement.

If he's used throwing full bore 50 yards down field and doing the same 7 yards down field that isn't an easy coaching fix. It may be fixable but it really depends on correctly diagnosing the exact nature of the problem, the correct fix and the coachability of the player.

The good news is by all accounts Richardson has a great work ethic.

But all the theory in the world goes out the window when Jeffery Simmons is coming at you full bore ready to steal your lunch money.

And "experts" are looking for likes just like the rest of us. Ask 30 of them and see if you get a consensus on what Richardson's issues are and how to fix them.

I don’t disagree. Just saying what I’ve read/heard gives me reason for optimism.

 

[BassNBrew]

Based on past results this would lead me to fade ARich.

*cough Mahomes cough*

Bridgewater, Mayfield (at least last year). It’s a coi flip at best and years like last it’s just do the opposite

 

[JohnnyU]

I don’t know who will bust, but I am tired of watching videos of people saying don’t draft so and so because they won’t play to their ADP, but love the player. That isn’t going out on a limb.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

I just started reading this thread and was having fun with it. Then Hot Sauce Guy arrived and ruined it. I couldn't make it past the first page. Thanks guy.

I have no idea who you are. At least I’m taking about the topic, while you’re talking about me.

Enjoy your day.

 

[Football Jones]

For the life of me, I don’t understand the fascination with Roschon Johnson. He’s got absolutely no shot at being a long-term plus dynasty asset.

I think he could stick around awhile as a backup, though.

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

For the life of me, I don’t understand the fascination with Roschon Johnson. He’s got absolutely no shot at being a long-term plus dynasty asset.

I think he could stick around awhile as a backup, though.

Big back, people were viewing the Chicago backfield as coin-flippy (as opposed to the RBBC quagmire it likely is)

6’ 225 - I guess people are wagering that he might emerge as a lead back?

 

[Alex P Keaton]

For the life of me, I don’t understand the fascination with Roschon Johnson. He’s got absolutely no shot at being a long-term plus dynasty asset.

I think he could stick around awhile as a backup, though.

What percentage of RBs drafted after the 2nd round have a shot based on the bar you’ve set for success?

 

[JohnnyU]

For the life of me, I don’t understand the fascination with Roschon Johnson. He’s got absolutely no shot at being a long-term plus dynasty asset.

I think he could stick around awhile as a backup, though.

You are probably wrong. Fresh wheels with skillz

 

[Football Jones]

For the life of me, I don’t understand the fascination with Roschon Johnson. He’s got absolutely no shot at being a long-term plus dynasty asset.

I think he could stick around awhile as a backup, though.

Big back, people were viewing the Chicago backfield as coin-flippy (as opposed to the RBBC quagmire it likely is)

6’ 225 - I guess people are wagering that he might emerge as a lead back?

I guess so. You have to be pretty special to be anything more than a short-term stop-gap at the RB position, tho.

And Roschon aint anywhere close to special.

 

[Football Jones]

For the life of me, I don’t understand the fascination with Roschon Johnson. He’s got absolutely no shot at being a long-term plus dynasty asset.

I think he could stick around awhile as a backup, though.

What percentage of RBs drafted after the 2nd round have a shot based on the bar you’ve set for success?

That depends on their raw ability/skill set.

 

[Tanner9919]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - I just don't see it as a 3rd piece in that offense. I don't see the volume and the stats.

 

[Ilov80s]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - I just don't see it as a 3rd piece in that offense. I don't see the volume and the stats.

Don't see it for this year or just ever as a dynasty asset?

 

[TripItUp]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - I just don't see it as a 3rd piece in that offense. I don't see the volume and the stats.

He might be the best WR on that team by midseason. Significantly more well rounded than DK and just younger and more explosive than lockett.

Finishing as a top 10 WR in the second half of his rookie season is within his range of outcomes IMHO.

 

[JoeKappBudGrant]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - I just don't see it as a 3rd piece in that offense. I don't see the volume and the stats.

He might be the best WR on that team by midseason. Significantly more well rounded than DK and just younger and more explosive than lockett.

Finishing as a top 10 WR in the second half of his rookie season is within his range of outcomes IMHO.

Just as long as Geno manages to stay out of the cop car.

 

[pinkstapler]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - I just don't see it as a 3rd piece in that offense. I don't see the volume and the stats.

Agree. Lockett is criminally underrated, as usual. Depending on the metrics you choose, he's been the WR1 on that team for years, even with DK there. In fact, I think he's borderline for top 10 WR in the entire league, no later than 12, based on his skills and metrics. And I'm not alone in this take. And where most WRs start to fall off as they age, his route running and success vs press/man/zone have actually improved season to season. Watching tape he's almost perpetually open, and even when he isn't, makes fantastic catches in traffic and tight windows.

JSN is a great WR I'm sure, but before he landed on anyone's dynasty/fantasy roster and started tinting their opinions, he was never viewed as a Chase-type elite prospect coming out. "The potential best of a very weak WR class" seemed to be consensus. To think he'll carve out a meaningful role in his first season playing in that offense and alongside DK and Lockett is optimistic, but I can see the case be argued. To think he'll play the 2nd half of the season scoring in the top 10 is bonkers to me. Unless maybe Geno has a historical passing season with multiple WRs in the top 10.... I don't see Pete running that kind of offense though.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

2. Devon Achane - seems like a nice gadget player but will never be able to handle the volume and physicality of the NFL to really matter for fantasy purposes. Hard pass on this scatback unless you are into low ceilings.

This prediction is not off to a good start.

 

[Weebs210]

2. Devon Achane - seems like a nice gadget player but will never be able to handle the volume and physicality of the NFL to really matter for fantasy purposes. Hard pass on this scatback unless you are into low ceilings.

This prediction is not off to a good start.

Either is Charb. Snaps are trending up and he looks great

 

[Pip's Invitation]

2. Devon Achane - seems like a nice gadget player but will never be able to handle the volume and physicality of the NFL to really matter for fantasy purposes. Hard pass on this scatback unless you are into low ceilings.

This prediction is not off to a good start.

Either is Charb. Snaps are trending up and he looks great

And Roschon looks like the best Bears RB, but it’s unclear if that matters because the team is a dumpster fire.

 

[The Finist]

2. Devon Achane - seems like a nice gadget player but will never be able to handle the volume and physicality of the NFL to really matter for fantasy purposes. Hard pass on this scatback unless you are into low ceilings.

This prediction is not off to a good start.

Either is Charb. Snaps are trending up and he looks great

Walkers touches are also trending up. Charbs is a good handcuff

 

[TripItUp]

Looks like I nailed it, unless you are an Achane believer...I'm still very skeptical about his usage going forward.

 

[LawFitz]

0/4

 

[JohnnyU]

Wrong, Wong, Wong and Wong

 

[SproutDaddy]

2. Devon Achane - seems like a nice gadget player but will never be able to handle the volume and physicality of the NFL to really matter for fantasy purposes. Hard pass on this scatback unless you are into low ceilings.

This prediction is not off to a good start.

I’m not saying he isn’t going to be good, but I feel the expectations might be a little far fetched based on 1 game which is pretty much all of his stats up to date. It was against a Broncos D that gave up 70 pts, over 700 yards and missed 24 tackles. Even Miami’s 3rd string RB rushed for 70 yds. If he was a FA in my league I’d be grabbing him as well, but I see disappointing weeks ahead for his owners based on how MIA operates.

 

[TripItUp]

spoonfeeding this forum insight...I guess some guys just don't want to win...hope that roschon johnson investment is paying off.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

spoonfeeding this forum insight...I guess some guys just don't want to win...hope that roschon johnson investment is paying off.

Solid shtick. Either way, regardless of the outcome, appreciate your putting your views out there, on the record, for anyone to see.

 

[Truebluey]

Time to change the title? What do you think?

 

[Hugsy_Malone]

Welp, so much for this list.

From the Athletic: "Charbonnet’s working his way into a standalone role with a big-time contingency upside. He has higher yards per carry (4.6), yards after contact per rush (3.31), and success rate (56%) than the starter while logging a 12.5% negative rush rate — just under half of Walker’s. So get out there and pour yourself a nice glass of Charbonnet (sorry)."

 

[Ministry of Pain]

And that leaves us with Achane, it's good that so many dismiss him.
If Miami brings in Cook then i might change my outlook for 2023 but with so many weapons surrounding him, what's not to like?
What RBs get 20+ carries on a week to week basis? You really think Achane has ZERO shot at cracking the Top 25?
31 yr old Mostert, Jeff Hands O'Stone Wilson, garbage at the RB3 and RB4 sots with Gaskin and Ahmed right now
Again, if Cook is signed then I would expect Gaskin and Ahmed to not even make the team and perhaps Mostert and Wilson fight it out for the last spot, maybe Miami can keep both just to have some fresh legs. Nightmare for FF participants, i can agree with that but I think this will shake out and you will see clear roles.
Achane also catches the ball very well, something Miami sorely lacked at RB last year.

-I tried to warn everybody

 

[rockaction]

Still really 0/4 and looking worse every day

 

[DocHolliday]

Still really 0/4 and looking worse every day

To be fair to the OP, I had a lot of misses this season too

 

[Soulfly3]

I admittedly wasn't a fan of any of the RBs this season, so I missed on some good ones.

But my WRs being zay, addison and tank was an absolute home run.

 

[Pip's Invitation]

Still really 0/4 and looking worse every day

He’ll claim Achane was a victory because of the injury. That’s what he did with Dalvin Cook in his rookie year.

 

[rockaction]

He’ll claim Achane was a victory because of the injury.

I anticipated that and was set to not respond to any comments of that nature.

 

[smbkrypt24]

I look at it right now as 2/4.
Achane looks like a hit
Downs looks pretty good.

Roschon- too early but I would avoid
Charb- turning it on, but I am avoiding

 

[Ministry of Pain]

1. Zach Charbonnet - I watch a lot of college ball and I have never understood the valuation of Charbonnet. Great collegiate RB, but a bust RB in the NFL IMHO. His BMI is terrible, his measurables are mediocre by star RB standards and his running style will not translate to the NFL IMHO. He profiles as a JAG rusher IMHO. Maybe he can find a niche as a 3rd down back, but I don't like his ceiling and consider Walker the vastly superior rusher.

2. Devon Achane - seems like a nice gadget player but will never be able to handle the volume and physicality of the NFL to really matter for fantasy purposes. Hard pass on this scatback unless you are into low ceilings.

3. Roschon Johnson - He's the third best RB on the Bears right now. Maybe he emerges in year 2, maybe he doesn't. Like Charbonet, he profiles as a JAG rusher for me. Herbert recently announced that this is a RBBC...so there's that too. This kid is unproven and buried on the depth chart in a RBBC which makes him a hard pass.

4. Josh Downs - He's small. Really small. And now he's going to be catching passes from Richardson, an unpolished QB to say the least. Listen to Zachariason's recent podcasts on rookie QBs and their impact on their respective supporting casts...here's a hint, it's not good...and most of us didn't need to listen to a podcast to know it. Additionally, Pittman and Pierce are strong WRs...at best tiny Downs is WR3 for the foreseeable future...yucky.

Good thread idea Trip
ARich will be a BUST

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I don't see how anyone could get overly excited for any Bears RB at the moment so that's fair.

Someone in that backfield is going to provide RL & FF value. Seems a bit early to throw the entire baby out with the bathwater. The bears have been a pretty effective rushing team historically, and with Fields rushing & a seemingly improved offense I would think someone will emerge there. I don’t mind people making speculative adds in the hope they land “the guy”. Not sure who “the guy” is yet, but Herbert has shown flashes.

Josh who? Downs you say? Oh he plays on that Colts team with another FF ROOKIE BUST at QB, good find Trip

I’m not that excited about Downs given the rushing nature & relative unknowns about the new colts offense, and I will honor your request and not demand that you explain your opinion on ARich, which is clearly quite strong.

Zach Bluebonnet is firmly entrenched as the #2 RB in Seattle behind Kenny Walker III, i don't think most are expecting HUGE production out of him

According to whom? Link?

I mean, you might be right, but when you say things like “firmly entrenched as the #2 RB” that seems like an absolute statement of fact, when really you’re just speculating wildly, right?

Respectfully, I wouldn’t think the Seahawks would have spent a 2nd round pick on a backup. That would be fairly unusual in the modern NFL. Was there really no defensive or OL player on the board that could have helped the Seahawks at that point in the draft more than a guy they’ll “firmly entrench” as a RB2?

Might there be a possibility that they have a role in mind for Charbonnet?

And that leaves us with Achane, it's good that so many dismiss him.
If Miami brings in Cook then i might change my outlook for 2023 but with so many weapons surrounding him, what's not to like?
What RBs get 20+ carries on a week to week basis? You really think Achane has ZERO shot at cracking the Top 25?
31 yr old Mostert, Jeff Hands O'Stone Wilson, garbage at the RB3 and RB4 sots with Gaskin and Ahmed right now
Again, if Cook is signed then I would expect Gaskin and Ahmed to not even make the team and perhaps Mostert and Wilson fight it out for the last spot, maybe Miami can keep both just to have some fresh legs. Nightmare for FF participants, i can agree with that but I think this will shake out and you will see clear roles.
Achane also catches the ball very well, something Miami sorely lacked at RB last year.

Good thread idea Trip

So the MIA player is the one non-bust. Not homerish at all.

lol

ARich will be a BUST

Again, biting my tongue per your request my friend. We have agreed to disagree.

Let's discuss this homerism again


Go Achane Go!

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Let's discuss this homerism again


Go Achane Go!

How’s he doing today? I’m at work, so not watching. 200 yards, 3 TD?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Let's discuss this homerism again


Go Achane Go!

How’s he doing today? I’m at work, so not watching. 200 yards, 3 TD?

Went off for 55 again

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

Went off for 55 again

Looking at the box score seems a little short of that.

 

[JohnnyU]

Let's discuss this homerism again


Go Achane Go!

How’s he doing today? I’m at work, so not watching. 200 yards, 3 TD?

Went off for 55 again

Wut?

 

[Shawnky]

Let's discuss this homerism again


Go Achane Go!

How’s he doing today? I’m at work, so not watching. 200 yards, 3 TD?

Went off for 55 again

Went off??????

 

[smcindoe]

I think he means he went off the field for 55 of the 60 minutes.

 

[eighsse2]

I think he means he went off the field for 55 of the 60 minutes.

That makes sense. Very clever wording if he intended it to be misleading

 

[Hot Sauce Guy]

@Ministry of Pain: worst attempt at an “I told you so” ever.

Hang your head in shame.

 

[JohnnyU]

I think he means he went off the field for 55 of the 60 minutes.

Clever for sure