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Trip's Top 5 Value Plays (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

Footballguy
1) Carson Palmer - top 5 upside with 13th round ADP, guaranteed PPG

2) Joseph Randle - top 5 upside with 3rd/4th round ADP

3) Rashad Jennings - top 5 upside with 6th round ADP

4) Eli Manning - top 5 upside with 10th round ADP and high floor

5) Ray Rice - not being drafted in many drafts but in the prime of his career, fully healthy and motivated to be relevant again

Give me yours!

 
Off the top of my head:

-Crowell (32nd RB being drafted, has a great line and seems to be emerging as West struggles and Duke is hurt)

-Palmer (I don't see top 5, but QB9-12 is very reasonable)

-Vernon Davis going undrafted in a lot of mocks and is 1 season removed from 800 yards and 13 TDs, idiot OC is gone)

-Bowe (73rd WR being taken, there is nobody else to throw to and we know McCown likes to toss the ball up to big WRs. Look at the numbers big WRs have posted with McCown at QB the last few years).

- Colston (WR45, really picked up his play down the stretch last year, can expect to eat up lots of those Graham targets)

 
1) Shane vereen. Try to find a giants article that doesn't refer to him being used more than anyone expects. He's going to get carries on early downs this year, plus the receptions and third down work.

2) Jeremy Maclin - everyone seems to be sown on Maclin in Kansas City. Alex smith can throw deep when he has good receivers, but he doesn't even try when he's got Donnie Avery. Terrell Owens had a monster year playing under Andy Reid in Philly. Expect quality wr2 numbers at a wr3 price.

3) Andy Dalton - Hue Jackson has said he wants to open up the offense this year. With healthy weapons, Dalton was a top five qb two years ago. He should be in the conversation with guys like Eli, Romo and rivers, but his stock is way down because his receivers got injured last year. Dalton used to focus on aj green and nobody else. In back to back seasons he's been forced to make heavy use of sanu and Jones. Now he has Green, Sanu and Jones on the field at the same time. With defenses focused more on the running game, expect more room for the passing game and a higher ypa.

4) Zach ertz. No djax. No Maclin. No mccoy. Sure, agholar is talented, and Matthews looks great out of the slot. But they run an awful lot of offensive plays and someone needs to catch the ball. This feels like one of those situations where the tight end fills the void because there's nobody else to do it.

5) Legarrete Blount - this is the most clarity we've had at running back in new England in years. Sure, they're looking for someone to fill vereen's role - but vereen only had a big role because he was very talented. Yeah, ridley got benched. But that was for fumbling, specifically in some very bad situations. Blount came in of the street and replaced a guy who had a 200 yard game. Then Blount showed why. Belichick loves veteran backs and the Patriots are always one of the top rushing teams. An absolute steal in the mid rounds.

Honorable mentions

Victor Cruz. It depends how late he slides, of course, but he's been left for dead by a lot of people and every report so far is that he's faster than expected, taking hits, making cuts, and had an outstanding recovery. Cruz was best when nicks was drawing number one coverage. He could be a sneaky wr1 after a few weeks of getting his game speed back.

Kyle Rudolph - good talent, good qb, great coach for tight ends, great running back to take pressure off him. The pieces are all there. Again.

Alfred blue - he wasn't great last year, but after working out with Adrian Peterson this off season he might take a big step forward. The opportunity is certainly there and the team will definitely feed a running back ifvthey do well. Read this http://www.houstonchronicle.com/sports/texans/article/Blue-uses-offseason-workouts-to-ensure-Texans-6209112.php?t=d87b126e77438d9cbb&cmpid=twitter-premium

Dan Herron - is there a backup rb in a better situation behind an older running back?

Later picks

Virgil green - Julius Thomas was a badly flawed receiving tight end until he started. Manning covers up a lot of those flaws. With some decline in arm strength, manning isn't stretching the field anymore, and this is already a tight end friendly offense. Yes, green is a better blocker than receiver, and yes, Owen Daniels may start out as the guy to own, but if you have deep rosters this is a great guy to stash.

Eddie royal - last couple of years, Eddie royal has started out red hot then declined rapidly. This year, with Marshall gone and their stud rookie sidelined, royal is already making noise in camp. Back together with cutler, this could be a nice fill in receiver especially for early daily leagues or best ball leagues.

 
Off the top of my head:

-Crowell (32nd RB being drafted, has a great line and seems to be emerging as West struggles and Duke is hurt)

-Palmer (I don't see top 5, but QB9-12 is very reasonable)

-Vernon Davis going undrafted in a lot of mocks and is 1 season removed from 800 yards and 13 TDs, idiot OC is gone)

-Bowe (73rd WR being taken, there is nobody else to throw to and we know McCown likes to toss the ball up to big WRs. Look at the numbers big WRs have posted with McCown at QB the last few years).

- Colston (WR45, really picked up his play down the stretch last year, can expect to eat up lots of those Graham targets)
Davis has been completely off my radar but good call on that. With Roman gone, SF may actually have a fantasy relevant player or two.

 
Top 5 values.

1. DJax - WR34 ADP in PPR is criminal.

2. K. Wright - WR47 ADP in PPR and will likely have 70 - 80 receptions.

3. D. Johnson - RB33 ADP in PPR and Clev has repotdley been in love with him stating they have big plans for him. Might not carve out a lead RB role but it's the passing game that Clev has said they see a ton of opportunity.

4. Artis-Payne - RB54 ADP in PPR. Does anyone really expect Stewart to be a lead guy and hold onto that all year? Artis-Payne has already impressed at camp. He's worth a flyer.

5. RG3 - QB26 ADP in PPR. It's hard to pick just one QB because I think there's a ton of value there. RG3 stands out because he's so low and expectations have deteriorated to almost nothing. He's got great weapons and if he is anything close to regaining rookie year form he could be a monster.

 
I would have liked palmer if he hadn't had another acl injury. Good weapons, good coach, and he was heating up before he got hurt, but he got hurt late in the year and he's a lot older than he was last time. Hard to see him picking up where he left off.

 
I would have liked palmer if he hadn't had another acl injury. Good weapons, good coach, and he was heating up before he got hurt, but he got hurt late in the year and he's a lot older than he was last time. Hard to see him picking up where he left off.
has looked great in camp

 
Top 5 values.

1. DJax - WR34 ADP in PPR is criminal.

2. K. Wright - WR47 ADP in PPR and will likely have 70 - 80 receptions.

3. D. Johnson - RB33 ADP in PPR and Clev has repotdley been in love with him stating they have big plans for him. Might not carve out a lead RB role but it's the passing game that Clev has said they see a ton of opportunity.

4. Artis-Payne - RB54 ADP in PPR. Does anyone really expect Stewart to be a lead guy and hold onto that all year? Artis-Payne has already impressed at camp. He's worth a flyer.

5. RG3 - QB26 ADP in PPR. It's hard to pick just one QB because I think there's a ton of value there. RG3 stands out because he's so low and expectations have deteriorated to almost nothing. He's got great weapons and if he is anything close to regaining rookie year form he could be a monster.
Really good post. Don't know what to make of Cleveland but agreed on the rest.DJax and wright will be on all of my teams at these prices.

Qb: Eli or Ben. If I'm reaching I'll take a risk on Manuel and Taylor - take them both on deep rosters as my qb2s

Rb: probably Reggie Bush in ppr

Wr: djax/wright

Te: reed, I'll take the risk

 
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QB: Palmer is good, but has been said, so I'll go Bridgewater here.

RB: Ivory

WR: Marvin Jones

TE: Jordan Reed

 
Top 5 values.

1. DJax - WR34 ADP in PPR is criminal.

2. K. Wright - WR47 ADP in PPR and will likely have 70 - 80 receptions.

3. D. Johnson - RB33 ADP in PPR and Clev has repotdley been in love with him stating they have big plans for him. Might not carve out a lead RB role but it's the passing game that Clev has said they see a ton of opportunity.

4. Artis-Payne - RB54 ADP in PPR. Does anyone really expect Stewart to be a lead guy and hold onto that all year? Artis-Payne has already impressed at camp. He's worth a flyer.

5. RG3 - QB26 ADP in PPR. It's hard to pick just one QB because I think there's a ton of value there. RG3 stands out because he's so low and expectations have deteriorated to almost nothing. He's got great weapons and if he is anything close to regaining rookie year form he could be a monster.
Really good post. Don't know what to make of Cleveland but agreed on the rest.DJax and wright will be on all of my teams at these prices.

Qb: Eli or Ben. If I'm reaching I'll take a risk on Manuel and Taylor - take them both on deep rosters as my qb2s

Rb: probably Reggie Bush in ppr

Wr: djax/wright

Te: reed, I'll take the risk
What kind of league are you playing in where Manuel or Taylor are draftable? Aso, what round do you think is the spot to take Ben?

 
1) Carson Palmer - top 5 upside with 13th round ADP, guaranteed PPG

2) Joseph Randle - top 5 upside with 3rd/4th round ADP

3) Rashad Jennings - top 5 upside with 6th round ADP

4) Eli Manning - top 5 upside with 10th round ADP and high floor

5) Ray Rice - not being drafted in many drafts but in the prime of his career, fully healthy and motivated to be relevant again

Give me yours!
Ray Rice is in the prime of his career?

 
Top 5 values.

1. DJax - WR34 ADP in PPR is criminal.

2. K. Wright - WR47 ADP in PPR and will likely have 70 - 80 receptions.

3. D. Johnson - RB33 ADP in PPR and Clev has repotdley been in love with him stating they have big plans for him. Might not carve out a lead RB role but it's the passing game that Clev has said they see a ton of opportunity.

4. Artis-Payne - RB54 ADP in PPR. Does anyone really expect Stewart to be a lead guy and hold onto that all year? Artis-Payne has already impressed at camp. He's worth a flyer.

5. RG3 - QB26 ADP in PPR. It's hard to pick just one QB because I think there's a ton of value there. RG3 stands out because he's so low and expectations have deteriorated to almost nothing. He's got great weapons and if he is anything close to regaining rookie year form he could be a monster.
Agree on D Jax, Payne

would really like to see Johnson in pads before passing judgement either way

Just can't get on the RGIII bandwagon when his coach doesn't want him to succeed.

 
1) Carson Palmer - top 5 upside with 13th round ADP, guaranteed PPG

2) Joseph Randle - top 5 upside with 3rd/4th round ADP

3) Rashad Jennings - top 5 upside with 6th round ADP

4) Eli Manning - top 5 upside with 10th round ADP and high floor

5) Ray Rice - not being drafted in many drafts but in the prime of his career, fully healthy and motivated to be relevant again

Give me yours!
Ray Rice is in the prime of his career?
28 years old...close

 
1) Carson Palmer - top 5 upside with 13th round ADP, guaranteed PPG

2) Joseph Randle - top 5 upside with 3rd/4th round ADP

3) Rashad Jennings - top 5 upside with 6th round ADP

4) Eli Manning - top 5 upside with 10th round ADP and high floor

5) Ray Rice - not being drafted in many drafts but in the prime of his career, fully healthy and motivated to be relevant again

Give me yours!
Ray Rice is in the prime of his career?
28 years old...close
There's another problem besides his age and decline.

 
Top 5 values.

1. DJax - WR34 ADP in PPR is criminal.

2. K. Wright - WR47 ADP in PPR and will likely have 70 - 80 receptions.

3. D. Johnson - RB33 ADP in PPR and Clev has repotdley been in love with him stating they have big plans for him. Might not carve out a lead RB role but it's the passing game that Clev has said they see a ton of opportunity.

4. Artis-Payne - RB54 ADP in PPR. Does anyone really expect Stewart to be a lead guy and hold onto that all year? Artis-Payne has already impressed at camp. He's worth a flyer.

5. RG3 - QB26 ADP in PPR. It's hard to pick just one QB because I think there's a ton of value there. RG3 stands out because he's so low and expectations have deteriorated to almost nothing. He's got great weapons and if he is anything close to regaining rookie year form he could be a monster.
Really good post. Don't know what to make of Cleveland but agreed on the rest.DJax and wright will be on all of my teams at these prices.

Qb: Eli or Ben. If I'm reaching I'll take a risk on Manuel and Taylor - take them both on deep rosters as my qb2s

Rb: probably Reggie Bush in ppr

Wr: djax/wright

Te: reed, I'll take the risk
What kind of league are you playing in where Manuel or Taylor are draftable? Aso, what round do you think is the spot to take Ben?
16-32 team leagues with large rosters. I'd keep an eye out even in 12 team leagues. For Ben, I really don't know about round, but if I can get him outside of the top 7 QBs, I'll take him.

 
Depending on where you are drafting, Rodgers could be a steal. I would pull the trigger anywhere after pick 10. I have a feeling he is going to blow up for 45 - 50 tds this year.

Also...Jimmy Graham is a STEAL. He is going in the 4th - 5th round. I am snagging him in the third. He is pretty much in a perfect situation, blah wrs, accurate qb and a great running game to take the pressure off. I am guessing that he puts up wr #1 numbers this year.

 
I'm all-in on Eli this year, grabbed him as my starter (with weak backups) in both of my main dynasty leagues. Beckham + time in McAdoo's offense + Cruz back I think Mr. Yearly inconsistency is ready for one of his "up" years.

 
Depending on where you are drafting, Rodgers could be a steal. I would pull the trigger anywhere after pick 10. I have a feeling he is going to blow up for 45 - 50 tds this year.

Also...Jimmy Graham is a STEAL. He is going in the 4th - 5th round. I am snagging him in the third. He is pretty much in a perfect situation, blah wrs, accurate qb and a great running game to take the pressure off. I am guessing that he puts up wr #1 numbers this year.
I see Graham going in the 3rd usually. If you see him going in the 4th-5th and are taking him in the 3rd, I am not sure that is a steal.

 
Depending on where you are drafting, Rodgers could be a steal. I would pull the trigger anywhere after pick 10. I have a feeling he is going to blow up for 45 - 50 tds this year.

Also...Jimmy Graham is a STEAL. He is going in the 4th - 5th round. I am snagging him in the third. He is pretty much in a perfect situation, blah wrs, accurate qb and a great running game to take the pressure off. I am guessing that he puts up wr #1 numbers this year.
I see Graham going in the 3rd usually. If you see him going in the 4th-5th and are taking him in the 3rd, I am not sure that is a steal.
if he puts up wr-1 numbers the 3rd is a steal

 
I'm all-in on Eli this year, grabbed him as my starter (with weak backups) in both of my main dynasty leagues. Beckham + time in McAdoo's offense + Cruz back I think Mr. Yearly inconsistency is ready for one of his "up" years.
I want Eli and Vereen, this year.

 
Kendall Wright - WR49 - I've got him for 75-100 receptions. Mariota is much better than most of the FF world thinks. If he hits Wright in stride, look out.

Marvin Jones - WR58 - Most of the FF world doesn't understand that this is the Red Zone option for Cincy (when they pass) and the #2 WR for that team.

Ryan Mathews - RB41 - Most of the FF world hasn't watched the Oregon Ducks and doesn't understand what Kelly is doing. Aside from the obvious upside if Murray were to get hurt, Mathews is going to get a ton of work on his own.

 
Depending on where you are drafting, Rodgers could be a steal. I would pull the trigger anywhere after pick 10. I have a feeling he is going to blow up for 45 - 50 tds this year.

Also...Jimmy Graham is a STEAL. He is going in the 4th - 5th round. I am snagging him in the third. He is pretty much in a perfect situation, blah wrs, accurate qb and a great running game to take the pressure off. I am guessing that he puts up wr #1 numbers this year.
I see Graham going in the 3rd usually. If you see him going in the 4th-5th and are taking him in the 3rd, I am not sure that is a steal.
if he puts up wr-1 numbers the 3rd is a steal
3rd round is about where the WR1 tier ends as Cobb,Hilton, Evans, and Jeffrey usually go early to mid 3rd. I just don't get the logic of "I am drafting a player 1-2 rounds before I usually see him drafted and it is a steal." Based on your projections, the guys taking Graham in the 4th and 5th are getting the steals.

 
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QB/Dalton - he flashes every few games some good to great numbers. the playoff failures are enough to sour perception of him. it amounts to him being a less #####-y version of Cutler. they have a very good offense with the talent.

RB/Jennings - he's a bargain while he can hold up. Vereen will gets lots of use too. that's an offense on the upswing.

TE/Tamme - he's going undrafted but he's going to get opportunities. Julio and Roddy will open up the field for a guy that is reliable and knows where to find the soft spots in coverage to move the chains. Matt Ryan had Tony Gonzalez for a few years and knows what a reliable TE can do for your offense.

WR/Matthews - Chip's building his team with arguably a better QB. Matthews has just terrifc hands. He's going to get a ton of targets.

WR/Crabtree - veteran on an emerging offense. they'll be in plenty of shoot-outs too.

WR/Garcon - down year last year playing a different role in the offense. he's supposed to get moved around now to better utilize his particular skills.

 
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3 qbs I love at their ADP

Palmer - agreed could be top 5 if he stays healthy

Eli Manning - great offense and mucho weapons

Sam Bradford - again, if he can stay healthy will be top 10 (and you can feel safe drafting Sanchez who will preform if needed)

2 rbs with a ton of upside at their ADP

Ryan Mathews - I think he will get 10 tds even if Murray stays healthy and if Murray goes down.........look out. Mathews is just as talented as Murray

Frank Gore (redraft) - Gore is going on the outside of the top 15 rbs this year and I see him as a top producer. He will have excellent td oppurtunities and wont share the backfield very much. I see 1400 all purpose yards and 10 tds very likely and you can get him in the 30's in a redraft. Excellent 1st rb on a team that goes away from a rb with their first 2 picks

1 wr I love at his ADP is

Larry Fitzgerald. Outside of the top 30 is criminal. Look at the numbers again with Palmer last year. he was on pace for 1400 yards and 6 tds. Assuming Palmer is healthy for the whole year and Michael Floyd being injured will help get those targets up for Fitz. I see 1200 and 8 this year assuming Palmer can stay healthy.

Another 2 wrs, at their ADP, I like are Brian Quick outside the top 50 and Torrey Smith outside the top 40. Both are young talented wrs and #1's on their team. I don't see huge #'s coming from them but sniffing 1000 yards and 6 tds should be easy and pay nice returns

A TE that presents nice value is Owen Daniels at #15. Daniels has followed Kubiak everywhere he goes and now has a QB that has made the tight end very relevant for fantasy purposes in the past. Wouldn't surprise me at all to see Daniels in the top 5 at the end of the year.

D/ST I like Minnesota on the defensive side this year a lot!

 
I think there are a ton of nice upside TEs. I'd just assume draft 2 of them with my last 2 picks and see how it shakes out, play waivers. I am certain we can find a TE1 out of guys like Eiffert, Davis, Owens, Reed, etc.

 
I think there are a ton of nice upside TEs. I'd just assume draft 2 of them with my last 2 picks and see how it shakes out, play waivers. I am certain we can find a TE1 out of guys like Eiffert, Davis, Owens, Reed, etc.
Yup, lots of value at TE. Amaro at TE29 is ripe for the picking.

 
I think there are a ton of nice upside TEs. I'd just assume draft 2 of them with my last 2 picks and see how it shakes out, play waivers. I am certain we can find a TE1 out of guys like Eiffert, Davis, Owens, Reed, etc.
Yup, lots of value at TE. Amaro at TE29 is ripe for the picking.
Heath Miller, Larry Donnell...hell, I think Mychal Rivera has some real potential.

also Rudolph. He is an injury risk, but who cares at his price.

 
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QB: Palmer is good, but has been said, so I'll go Bridgewater here.

RB: Ivory

WR: Marvin Jones

TE: Jordan Reed
I love these picks here. I like Eifert for TE. Others I like are,

QB Bradford, Cutler

RB Blount, Crowell, David Johnson, Woodhead

WR Rueben Randle, Royal, Decker, Colston

 
Top 5 values-

Frank Gore- Should easily outperform his ADP value in Indy's high powered offense. No more 8 man boxes with boatloads of QB and WR talent for the defenses to worry about.

Marcus Mariota-Accurate and has legs- should be top 15 qb and is currently rated about QB25

Eli Manning-Could easily post top 5 numbers with a healthy Beckham, Cruz and Randle.

Mike Wallace-With defenses keying on Peterson should open the door for Wallace to post top 25 finish.

Charles Clay- Should receive a lot of targets from a weak Buffalo QB option but defenses will be keying on McCoy and daring them to throw.

 
I will play the role of Johnny Raincloud for some of these.

Carson Palmer:

I have outlined in several other threads why I am not anywhere near in love with Palmer as many others. He has not shown the ability to score enough fantasy points on a consistent basis to rank as a Top 5 QB. He is what he is . . . a middle of the road QB.

But, but . . . what about his hot start last year, certainly that proves he is going to be a Top 5 QB? Well, most of those games came against Bottom 5-10 pass defenses. Lots have QBs can string together a few decent games. He fared well last year by putting up more TDs than he normally does, so I will suggest that those games were not the true Carson Palmer. Defense also tend to struggle early on when a new scheme/offensive system goes into place (or otherwise an offense with a new wrinkle).

For example, look at how well Cam Newton did when he joined the league. By the mid point in the season, Newton stopped putting up insane passing numbers. He had 3 games of 375 yards passing to start his career . . . and nothing approaching that since. Defensive coordinators adjust, it's what they do.

Over the course of his career, Palmer has not shown that he can throw for 30 TDs (did it once 10 years ago). Since he has played on teams that have had to pass a lot, he has gotten to 4,000 yards 3 or 4 times, but he's almost 36, has bad knees, and offers nothing running the football.

Add it all up, and I don't see him having IMPACTFUL fantasy value on a consistent basis. If he somehow were to play every game, I would slot him as a QB in the 10-15 range if things play out well. If things really go his way and he gets more TDs than I expect, maybe he could eke up to QB8. But if you are going up against the Lucks and Rodgers of the world, Carson Palmer will be a liability in your weekly lineup (provided he is healthy throughout the year). Sure, he costs less and can be had cheaper, but points are points. If Palmer got you 20 points in a game and one of the big boys scores 35, then what? Having a better WR3 is not going to help you.

Larry Fitzgerald:

The trickle down effect applies to Fitzgerald. He is also older and his numbers the past few years have slipped. I wrote at the time that Fitz and Warner were a tandum for the ages. Most of the time after that, Fitz was not a WR1 and probably not a WR2. He's not getting any young and at 32 probably has lost a step. Like Palmer, he did well over the course of a month last year. He had 3 games in the entire season where he was fantasy startable but all the others were pretty much junk. In expert leagues, he still had an ADP around WR30. I don't see having upside much above that even if Palmer played the entire season.

Frank Gore:

If the Frank Gore from 10 years ago were heading to Indy and he brought his OL with him, I'd be all over him. But he's not 22 and he's leaving his line in San Fran. Gore is old in running back years, has had multiple knee injuries/surgies, comes with a zillion career carries, and goes to a mediocre blocking OL. And while people will point to the IND passing game as a plu, I say that it more of a negative. Do people really thing the Colts are going to pass less to feed Gore the ball? If so, then Luck and the receivers in IND are going to underperform.

I've discussed similar situations in the past with teams like the Patriots. There is only one football to go around. One NFL team is not going to produce 10,000 yards of offense and score 100 TD. But people will still project individual players too high and not care that their projections could not possible happen when added all together.

I've posted in other threads that the history of production for 32 year old running backs is not great. And there have been a lot of HOF running backs to play at 32, so it's not like we are talking a bunch of nobodies. Read Andy Hicks comments in the staff rankings as those echo those of my own.

And believe you me, I LOVE Gore. I've had him in more leagues than I can count from his rookie season on. Lots of people are ranking Gore as a Top 10-12 RB this year. All I can say is good luck to lose that draft him anywhere near there.

 
But if you are going up against the Lucks and Rodgers of the world, Carson Palmer will be a liability in your weekly lineup (provided he is healthy throughout the year). Sure, he costs less and can be had cheaper, but points are points. If Palmer got you 20 points in a game and one of the big boys scores 35, then what? Having a better WR3 is not going to help you.
Not only do those guys not routinely outscore the Carson Palmer tier of QB-dom by a factor of 1.5, but the benefit of passing on them to take a Palmer isn't that you get a "slightly better WR3." It's that the opportunity cost of drafting a Luck or Rodgers is an absolute stud at another position.

And yeah, he fed on a nice, soft, early schedule a little bit. But on the one hand, this is at a time when the entire passing offense was brand new to the scheme. And on the other, this year's passing schedule isn't exactly a murderer's row. Yeah, they still face Seattle, but one of those is week 17. For the 16 weeks he'll be FF QB'ing if all goes well, the teams they face averaged a little worse than 16th in the league against the pass last year, and that's buoyed quite a bit by the two times they face a SF team that used to be a defensive juggernaut, but has since been gutted. Take out one SEA game (if you're willing to let him ride the pine one week) and plug in the new SF, and Carson's average weekly tilt isn't going to be much more daunting than his early-season schedule last year.

Larry Fitzgerald:

The trickle down effect applies to Fitzgerald. He is also older and his numbers the past few years have slipped. I wrote at the time that Fitz and Warner were a tandum for the ages. Most of the time after that, Fitz was not a WR1 and probably not a WR2. He's not getting any young and at 32 probably has lost a step. Like Palmer, he did well over the course of a month last year. He had 3 games in the entire season where he was fantasy startable but all the others were pretty much junk. In expert leagues, he still had an ADP around WR30. I don't see having upside much above that even if Palmer played the entire season.
If the entire take-home here is really that we ought to ignore 100% of the evidence we have with Fitz and Palmer both in the lineup in the Arians offense, and instead project as if we were in for an eternity of Stanton/Linley, I think most will disagree. Fitz is entering his age 32 season, and we've got enough track record of guys in that system producing at 32 and beyond that even without the benefit of Peyton Manning lobbing the rock, suggesting there's simply "no upside" beyond WR 30 seems unduly skeptical. Especially (again), when he was on track to shatter that ceiling as recently as last year when all the pieces were in place.

Frank Gore:

Do people really thing the Colts are going to pass less to feed Gore the ball? If so, then Luck and the receivers in IND are going to underperform.
No, people think that a washed-up, borderline zombie Bradshaw was a top 5 back while he was healthy in that offense last year, and that Gore is orders of magnitude better at professional football. If he plods for 3.9 ypc, but stays on the field, opportunity alone is going to smash these low-end projections. Any historical study that doesn't include a season full of opportunity in what was (and will likely be) the most prolific offense in the NFL is useless in this regard.

 
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So explain to me the following.

It's been 9 years since Edgerrin James left the Colts. In all but one of them, IND has had either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. All the opportunities for big production on a high octane offense playing on an indoor track have been there for the taking all that time. Peyton was Peyton and Luck has been as good or better.

Yet in that time, the Colts ranked 18, 18, 31, 32, 29, 26, 22, 20, and 22 each season in rushing yards. But all that receiving power pulls guys out of the box, leaving more room to run and more running lanes, right?

But in that time the Colts ranked 16, 22, 32, 30, 27, 18, 26, 13, and 25 in terms of rushing yards per attempt. So for all the talk about great passing = great rushing totals, it sure has not played out that way in Indianapolis.

Were all the running backs since Edge trash? Sure, Bradshaw put up decent numbers for a little while, but he would be more of an exception than a rule.

And while we're on the subject, was Gore the best option they could come up with? A 32 year old running back with nearly 3,000 career touches (regular and post season)? I posted elsewhere on the history of guys moving forward with the number of carries Gore has had, and it's not a pretty picture.

 
Gore is a great team fit, but not fantasy fit IMO. He's a capable runner but not anything special at this point of his career. He's a great blocker and check down option in the passing game, though. His total package will help Indy more in real football terms than your fantasy team. That's how I see it anyway.

 
As for Palmer, in my all TD = 6 pts league last year, in the 6 games Palmer played in, he ranked 5, 16, 13, 10, 7, and 25. That's putting up about as good numbers as he has in years against predominently weak defenses. Those weeks he was 14, 21, 22, 34, 23, and 41 points away from the top scorer in that particular week. So, yeah, top QB scorers can win a game for you almost by themselves.

To be fair to Palmer, there happened to be some crazy QB scores some of those weeks, but the point remains that getting only "OK" QB scoring can get you obliterated. Clearly indiviudal league scoring enters into all of this, but in many if not most leagues QBs score the most points. Istill have never figured out why people want to ignore the HUGE scoring diffential in the long haul between QBs.

Yeah, you can get decent (but not great) scoring from a number of mid round QB guys, but the scoring differential between a top QB and a Top 12-15 QB could be almost the same as if you took a 0 every week at one of your other fantasy positions.

 
And while we're on the subject, was Gore the best option they could come up with? A 32 year old running back with nearly 3,000 career touches (regular and post season)? I posted elsewhere on the history of guys moving forward with the number of carries Gore has had, and it's not a pretty picture.
Gore has 2,966 regular season and post season combined touches. Since 1980, there have been 12 RBs with at least that many touches in their careers. So this is a very small sample size we are looking at.

 
Gore is a great team fit, but not fantasy fit IMO. He's a capable runner but not anything special at this point of his career. He's a great blocker and check down option in the passing game, though. His total package will help Indy more in real football terms than your fantasy team. That's how I see it anyway.
Bradshaw was averaging just under 14 pts per game last year and Richardson in the timeshare with Bradshaw averaged 7.5 pts per game in PPR. That's 21.5 pts per game, this year the forecast for Indy RB's by Dodds and Wood is about 20 points per game and close to 22 pts per game by Henry so pretty close to what the Colts did last year. I believe that Gore will exceed Bradshaws average by 1-2 points per game. That would give him a minimum 240 fantasy points which would have put him in the top 9 RB's last year. He's currently going off as RB 14 and IMHO makes a good value play if he drops to the 3rd round.

 
I don't get the hate on Ray Rice...he's going to be signed and was looking spry the last time he was playing.

Not to mention he can be had near the end of every draft.

 
As for Palmer, looking at his career numbers is a mistake IMHO...Arians is by far the best offensive coordinator/head coach he has worked under and is by far the most pass happy.

 
TripItUp said:
As for Palmer, looking at his career numbers is a mistake IMHO...Arians is by far the best offensive coordinator/head coach he has worked under and is by far the most pass happy.
And looking at Arians totals with Andrew Luck or Ben Roethlisberger is a mistake IMHO. Younger, hall of fame caliber, mobile QBs vs. an old, statue-like, journeyman QB. But that's why they play the games.

 
TripItUp said:
I don't get the hate on Ray Rice...he's going to be signed and was looking spry the last time he was playing.

Not to mention he can be had near the end of every draft.
If the Texans don't consider him because of the PR, why would anyone else?

 
TripItUp said:
I don't get the hate on Ray Rice...he's going to be signed and was looking spry the last time he was playing.

Not to mention he can be had near the end of every draft.
If the Texans don't consider him because of the PR, why would anyone else?
Because "everyone else" isn't necessarily burdened by an ownership that made a vocal and absolute stance essentially condemning every domestic-violence case to Never-Never Land.

 

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