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Trip's Top 4 QB Value Plays - Redraft 2022 (1 Viewer)

TripItUp

TripItUp

Footballguy
1.  Russel Wilson #10 - probably the only QB ranked after 8 that has a legitimate shot at finishing top 3.  Russ wants to Cook, Broncos coaches want Russ to cook and he's got the weapons to cook.   I'm a buyer at #10.  Trip ranking QB #7.

2.  Kirk Cousins #14 - another QB ranked outside of the top 10 that can put up top 5 numbers and actually has quite a few similarities to Russ...namely the Vikings have the weapons and an offensive minded coaching staff.    Cousins isn't the most electric QB, but he can still fling it and with these weapons and new coaching regime there is some upside here that is being overlooked in some drafts.  Trip ranking QB #12

3.  Jameis Winston #21 - how soon we forget that Jameis has demonstrated he can put up huge passing numbers.   I don't think he has top 5 upside, but certainly can far exceed his current ADP and ranking.   Watch out if Michael Thomas comes back at close to the old Michael Thomas.  Trip ranking QB#17

4.  Trubisky/Pickett #31/33 - I'm not sure which Steeler QB takes the most snaps in 2022 but I do know that Pittsburgh won't have the 31st  ranked passing offense.   I like grabbing this duo late in deep drafts and superflex leagues.  Trip ranking QB #25/26.

**Rankings cited are FantasyPros expert consensus rankings that are publicly available.  LINK

 
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I like the Wilson and Cousin calls but they’re going to have to have massive passing stats to get to top 3/5 because neither are big running QBs (Wilson used to be obviously but not so much anymore).

 
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TripItUp said:
**Rankings cited are FantasyPros expert consensus rankings that are publicly available.
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Trip,

I am seeing different expert rankings on their site, so can you post the rankings you are seeing so we can "argue" with you?  I am seeing Wilson at 11, Cousins at 15, Winston at 23, and the Truckett duo at 31/32.

 
I'm starting to really warm up to Tua.  I also think his chances of becoming a hot commodity this draft season is fairly low.

- McDaniel has literally followed Shanahan around for 15 years career wise
- Offense specializes in getting playmakers ball in space
- Waddle - Year 2
- Devante Parker for Tyreek Hill trade...also added Cedrick Wilson.  Pass catchers feel...underrated.
- Running game currently looks built  around Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert.
- Better OL
- No chance to have Watson rumors hovering

 
TheDirtyWord said:
I'm starting to really warm up to Tua.  I also think his chances of becoming a hot commodity this draft season is fairly low.

- McDaniel has literally followed Shanahan around for 15 years career wise
- Offense specializes in getting playmakers ball in space
- Waddle - Year 2
- Devante Parker for Tyreek Hill trade...also added Cedrick Wilson.  Pass catchers feel...underrated.
- Running game currently looks built  around Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel, Raheem Mostert.
- Better OL
- No chance to have Watson rumors hovering
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I'm just not sure how much they want to throw the ball.  Couple that with the OL and Tua still maturing, it's possible but not high on my personal value list.

 
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I like the value for Wilson and Cousins. I would add Stafford and Carr to that group as well. To me, that's the grouping that makes the most sense right now for redraft. 

 
Ilov80s said:
I like the value for Wilson and Cousins. I would add Stafford and Carr to that group as well. To me, that's the grouping that makes the most sense right now for redraft. 
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Carr almost made the cut.   That division is going to be a shootout after shootout.   That being said, I only have Carr one spot ahead of ECR.

 
TripItUp said:
Carr almost made the cut.   That division is going to be a shootout after shootout.   That being said, I only have Carr one spot ahead of ECR.
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True, might not be a value. Maybe more like appropriately ranked. Safe floor and the highest ceiling of his career. I don't think it's an awful play to get 2 QBs between rounds 7-10 and play match-ups through the year. A Stafford-Carr or Wilson-Cousins combo could produce high end QB1 combined numbers if you are successful in usually picking the right match-ups. 

 
Ilov80s said:
True, might not be a value. Maybe more like appropriately ranked. Safe floor and the highest ceiling of his career. I don't think it's an awful play to get 2 QBs between rounds 7-10 and play match-ups through the year. A Stafford-Carr or Wilson-Cousins combo could produce high end QB1 combined numbers if you are successful in usually picking the right match-ups. 
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I have a hard time taking 2 QB's in the first 10 rounds of a 1QB league.  There is still too much value at other positions on the board.

 
Ilov80s said:
True, might not be a value. Maybe more like appropriately ranked. Safe floor and the highest ceiling of his career. I don't think it's an awful play to get 2 QBs between rounds 7-10 and play match-ups through the year. A Stafford-Carr or Wilson-Cousins combo could produce high end QB1 combined numbers if you are successful in usually picking the right match-ups. 
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could not agree more...have started to look at QB combos for this very reason.  Not my typical strategy but this could be the year it makes a ton of sense.

 
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TheWinz said:
I have a hard time taking 2 QB's in the first 10 rounds of a 1QB league.  There is still too much value at other positions on the board.
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Totally understandable. That said, when I look back at teams at the end of the season, it's pretty rare that any WR or RB I took after round 8 are still on my team. The hit rate is really low once we get that deep into RB/WR rankings. It is still worth taking the shot because if you do get  a hit, it's a huge bonus. I just think it might also be worth it to skip the top 8-9 QBs in favor of RBs and WRs, then when RB/WR thins out, double tap QB. 

 
Ilov80s said:
True, might not be a value. Maybe more like appropriately ranked. Safe floor and the highest ceiling of his career. I don't think it's an awful play to get 2 QBs between rounds 7-10 and play match-ups through the year. A Stafford-Carr or Wilson-Cousins combo could produce high end QB1 combined numbers if you are successful in usually picking the right match-ups. 
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I think the bolded will drive you nuts.  If I got Wilson or Cousins I would trust they will be QB1's for the season and just roll with one.  Now going after a Stafford-Carr duo and playing matchup or one of those guys with a QB in the 20-ish range to pair up I think would work well for matchup plays.  

 
With you completely on Wilson, I'd go as high as QB5 with him. In addition to your point, I think people are undervaluing his rushing a lot. He ran less last year, only having 183 yards and 2 TDs, but he had 513 yards and 2 TD's in 2020. I think its more likely he's closer to 2020 than 2021. Same logic applies to Dak Prescott, who is another QB, I think is being undervalued. 

 
travdogg said:
With you completely on Wilson, I'd go as high as QB5 with him. In addition to your point, I think people are undervaluing his rushing a lot. He ran less last year, only having 183 yards and 2 TDs, but he had 513 yards and 2 TD's in 2020. I think its more likely he's closer to 2020 than 2021. Same logic applies to Dak Prescott, who is another QB, I think is being undervalued. 
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 I also agree that takes on his rushing demise are overblown...if I was up for a big contract I don't think I'd be running the ball a lot either.

 
Carr @ #14 is an interesting idea. You can be the last team to spend on a QB and still get a guy that has Adams/Waller/Renfrow. In a division that should feature a lot of shoot outs.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Carr @ #14 is an interesting idea. You can be the last team to spend on a QB and still get a guy that has Adams/Waller/Renfrow. In a division that should feature a lot of shoot outs.
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yep.   Didn't make my list because I only have him ranked one over the consensus, but I like his value, particularly at ADP.

 
Whichever QBs you have valued at about 9-12, those are going to be your best values. That list will differ a bit for FF managers but there seems little reason to reach when you can grab 2 in the 9-15 range and feel pretty good about it

Where do guys with much improved offenses around them like Tua, Trevor, Hurts, Goff, Carr...where do folks start stacking al these potential weekly gems? 

 
Ministry of Pain said:
Whichever QBs you have valued at about 9-12, those are going to be your best values. That list will differ a bit for FF managers but there seems little reason to reach when you can grab 2 in the 9-15 range and feel pretty good about it
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Agree with the bolded generally speaking.

 
Leroy Hoard said:
Carr @ #14 is an interesting idea. You can be the last team to spend on a QB and still get a guy that has Adams/Waller/Renfrow. In a division that should feature a lot of shoot outs.
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I can't decide about Carr.  I have him for $4 in a keeper league.  I also have Herbert, but for $28.  I love Herbert, but for $24, less, I am trying to decide if i'm better off keeping Carr.  Carr doesn't throw the TD's that Herbert does, but maybe this year he gets closer.  Really torn as to what to do.   

 
I'll go with Rodgers (ADP QB12), Lance (QB13), Fields (QB17), and Winston (QB21).

Rodgers & Lance are the last of the likely fantasy starters w top 3 upside. I generally want to get at least 1 of the top 13 QBs. Little known fact: Aaron Rodgers was the NFL MVP last year, and also the year before. Lance has some extra risk because it's not certain that Garoppolo is out of the way, but his running + the effectiveness of that offense could be huge.

Fields has a higher ceiling than the other guys at QB14+ because of his rushing & likely pass-heavy game scripts, though there's more risk that he and/or his offense could be a disaster.

QBs in Winston's range are only relevant in deeper leagues (not in a standard redraft league), but he has a much better chance than the guys around him of coming through as a solid fantasy starter.

 
ZWK said:
I'll go with Rodgers (ADP QB12), Lance (QB13), Fields (QB17), and Winston (QB21).

Rodgers & Lance are the last of the likely fantasy starters w top 3 upside. I generally want to get at least 1 of the top 13 QBs. Little known fact: Aaron Rodgers was the NFL MVP last year, and also the year before. Lance has some extra risk because it's not certain that Garoppolo is out of the way, but his running + the effectiveness of that offense could be huge.

Fields has a higher ceiling than the other guys at QB14+ because of his rushing & likely pass-heavy game scripts, though there's more risk that he and/or his offense could be a disaster.

QBs in Winston's range are only relevant in deeper leagues (not in a standard redraft league), but he has a much better chance than the guys around him of coming through as a solid fantasy starter.
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Love the Lance and Fields calls.

Trey Lance feels like Jalen Hurts a year ago, only with a higher ceiling, due to better playcalling, and supporting cast.

Little known stat, Justin Fields was a top-10 QB in each of his last 3 complete games, and like you said, there could be a lot of garbage time in Chicago. 

 
TripItUp said:
1.  Russel Wilson #10 - probably the only QB ranked after 8 that has a legitimate shot at finishing top 3.  Russ wants to Cook, Broncos coaches want Russ to cook and he's got the weapons to cook.   I'm a buyer at #10.  Trip ranking QB #7.

2.  Kirk Cousins #14 - another QB ranked outside of the top 10 that can put up top 5 numbers and actually has quite a few similarities to Russ...namely the Vikings have the weapons and an offensive minded coaching staff.    Cousins isn't the most electric QB, but he can still fling it and with these weapons and new coaching regime there is some upside here that is being overlooked in some drafts.  Trip ranking QB #12

3.  Jameis Winston #21 - how soon we forget that Jameis has demonstrated he can put up huge passing numbers.   I don't think he has top 5 upside, but certainly can far exceed his current ADP and ranking.   Watch out if Michael Thomas comes back at close to the old Michael Thomas.  Trip ranking QB#17

4.  Trubisky/Pickett #31/33 - I'm not sure which Steeler QB takes the most snaps in 2022 but I do know that Pittsburgh won't have the 31st  ranked passing offense.   I like grabbing this duo late in deep drafts and superflex leagues.  Trip ranking QB #25/26.

**Rankings cited are FantasyPros expert consensus rankings that are publicly available.  LINK
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Curious your thoughts: In a best ball vacuum, would you rather have Burrow/Tee Higgins stacked or Hurts/Devonte Smith? Assuming you can take one of Hurts or Burrow at the 6/7 turn.

 
facook said:
Curious your thoughts: In a best ball vacuum, would you rather have Burrow/Tee Higgins stacked or Hurts/Devonte Smith? Assuming you can take one of Hurts or Burrow at the 6/7 turn.
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50/50, tournament, or 12 person top 3 cash?

 
travdogg said:
Love the Lance and Fields calls.

Trey Lance feels like Jalen Hurts a year ago, only with a higher ceiling, due to better playcalling, and supporting cast.

Little known stat, Justin Fields was a top-10 QB in each of his last 3 complete games, and like you said, there could be a lot of garbage time in Chicago. 
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I love Lance as a high upside swing...I don't like Fields at all.  He's going to be running for his life this year.

 
I like Trevor Lawrence as a late round dart throw as a QB2. Nobody is really talking about him and he is free in every draft I have done so far. 
 

A Rodgers going in the 15th rnd over @ FFPC FBG tourney seems to be a steal of a deal. I have paired these 2 twice already 15th and 17th rnd picks. 🤞

 
Silver & Black said:
I can't decide about Carr.  I have him for $4 in a keeper league.  I also have Herbert, but for $28.  I love Herbert, but for $24, less, I am trying to decide if i'm better off keeping Carr.  Carr doesn't throw the TD's that Herbert does, but maybe this year he gets closer.  Really torn as to what to do.   
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$28 seems high for Herbert unless you play in a superflex.  And if you play in a superflex, why not keep both?

 
There is absolutely no way Winston finishes in the 20's, unless he misses a bunch of games.  And he wouldn't even need MT to do it.

 
I like Cousins, but the problem with him is it's a case of "who do you move down", because everything you can say about him you can say about most of the guys in front of him as well.  The guys right in front of him are Rodgers, Stafford, and Wilson.

I love Wilson this year and agree on that one.  He would honestly be in the conversation for me after Allen/Mahomes.  I'll probably own him in almost every league given his ADP.  I think this is Peyton to Denver all over again.

 
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FreeBaGeL said:
I like Cousins, but the problem with him is it's a case of "who do you move down", because everything you can say about him you can say about most of the guys in front of him as well.  The guys right in front of him are Rodgers, Stafford, and Wilson.

I love Wilson this year and agree on that one.  He would honestly be in the conversation for me after Allen/Mahomes.  I'll probably own him in almost every league given his ADP.  I think this is Peyton to Denver all over again.
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That is kind of the point.  Don't move anyone down but you don't have to choose.  Let other people choose and then take the last guy of that group.  

 
Why do they call them Quarterbacks?

The Fullback was lined up the farthest from the center, the Halfback was half way back, leaving the player taking the snap a Quarter of the way back.  True story.

 
TheWinz said:
Why do they call them Quarterbacks?

The Fullback was lined up the farthest from the center, the Halfback was half way back, leaving the player taking the snap a Quarter of the way back.  True story.
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Reminds me of horse racing finish increments. A head is half a neck and a nose is half a head. 🐴

 
TripItUp said:
I'm just not sure how much they want to throw the ball.  Couple that with the OL and Tua still maturing, it's possible but not high on my personal value list.
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I can't see how they don't throw the ball, no matter if McM is a running specialist.  Miami's playmakers sit at the WR position and while, like Deebo, these guys can split to the RB position behind the QB, I see more of the shovel pass and quick screen style plays that are all PASSING plays in fantasy, so the QB gets a bump there.  Also, I see them having the ability to sustain drives (something they could not do last year with that O line) and still having a top tier D in terms of turnovers to get the amount of possessions one needs to be fantasy relevant.

 
TripItUp said:
yeah, forgot to mention that...plenty of shootouts in that division.
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I am gonna say something totally against the grain here - shootouts between top offenses hasn't been a thing for the last 3 years.  Since 2019, there have been 39 games where top 8 offenses have clashed.  In 28 of those games, the teams combined to score less than their average.  And, of the 11 games where they did score their average, I would consider only 3 shootouts, because the other 8 were very close to their average.  Blowouts seem to be more the norm now.

 
Tough year....in my 4 pt td league Brady, Rodgers, Carr, Wilson, Stafford, and Dak (injury game bias) all are averaging 15.xx pts per game.

Not bumping to pick at @TripItUp because this whole thread is littered with wrong just like the QBs on my various teams.
 
The state of quarterbacking this year is dreadful, so the smart play was to pay up for Allen or Mahomes. Will be interesting to see if that trend continues next year.
 
I followed my own advice. In my main 2 leagues, went Cousins/Carr and Wilson/Cousins. I am doing well in both and QB play has been good enough. However, I have moved on from Carr and Wilson for Fields now.
 
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