Trip's Top 5 Value Plays (1 Viewer)

[FUBAR]

What teams would sign rice?

Oakland?

Dallas would be scary but would they? Again I mean

 

[TripItUp]

What teams would sign rice?

Oakland?

Dallas would be scary but would they? Again I mean

The RB injuries are coming...just a matter of when.

Dallas wouldn't surprise me, and he automatically becomes a candidate for value play of the year.

 

[beerbuff]

Rice wasn't doing that good two years ago before his troubles. Highly unlikely any team will ever sign him again.

 

[TripItUp]

Rice wasn't doing that good two years ago before his troubles.

2012 - great year

2013 - down year

2014 - looked great in camp, and then suspended

 

[jurb26]

Rice wasn't doing that good two years ago before his troubles.

2012 - great year

2013 - down year

2014 - looked great in camp, and then suspended

2013 was a terrible year. He looked awful. 3.1 YPA and 5.5 YPC. Everyone looks great in camp.

 

[TripItUp]

Ric

e wasn't doing that good two years ago before his troubles.

2012 - great year

2013 - down year

2014 - looked great in camp, and then suspended

2013 was a terrible year. He looked awful. 3.1 YPA and 5.5 YPC. Everyone looks great in camp.

Marshawn Lynch had two sub 4.0 years, did you write him off?

The idea that one down year from a back is a reason to make a player undraftable isn't consistent with history.

Here' is an excerpt from CBS following the down 2013 season...

Ravens expecting big bounce back from Ray Riceby Marty Gitlin | CBSSports.com
A meeting with Ray Rice had Ravens general manager Ozzie Newsome believing his embattled running back will return to his Pro Bowl form in 2014.Rice, who played heavier than usual this season and also dealt with hip and quad injuries, lost his explosiveness and averaged a mere 3.1 yards per carry as his team had one of the worst ground attacks in the NFL.

"I think Ray is committed to being as good a football player as he has been," Newsome told the Baltimore Sun. "We had great dialogue on what we think we can do to help Ray to get there. But that combination of us having an understanding and a willingness to provide some help to him, and him having a willingness to work his butt off, we will again have a Pro Bowl running back in Ray Rice next year."

His yards per carry and 660 yards rushing for the season were by far his worst numbers since he took over the featured back spot in 2009.

February 4, 2014 9:27 AM EST
Ray Rice blames hip for weak 2013

by Dave Richard | Senior Fantasy Writer
Ray Rice has second-guessed his decision to play through a hip injury in 2013. Normally a large component of the Ravens offense, the six-year veteran totaled just 981 yards last year with four touchdowns. Rice says the injury is to blame.

"As a professional athlete, you're never 100 percent," Rice told FOXSports.com. "I was good enough to go, but I was limited with the things that I could do. That's never been me. That's something as a pro you have to weigh the good and the bad. For me it didn't work out in my favor this year, but I'll be smarter."

Rice insists he won't let the down year hamper him.

"I'm not old. I'm 27 years old going into my seventh year. My resume speaks for itself. I'm not going to let one year put up what my future is going to be. I got a lot of game left in me, and I'm already gearing towards next year."

 

[jurb26]

Ric

e wasn't doing that good two years ago before his troubles.

2012 - great year

2013 - down year

2014 - looked great in camp, and then suspended

2013 was a terrible year. He looked awful. 3.1 YPA and 5.5 YPC. Everyone looks great in camp.

Marshawn Lynch had two sub 4.0 years, did you write him off?

The idea that one down year from a back is a reason to make a player undraftable isn't consistent with history.

1 bad year and the fact that he hasn't been signed by ANYONE in 2 years.

 

[Tool]

I don't get the hate on Ray Rice...he's going to be signed and was looking spry the last time he was playing.

Not to mention he can be had near the end of every draft.

I don't think he'll suit up again and even if he does the likelihood of him having a significant role is very slim. His skills were declining, now he's been out of football for a year and he's just not worth the hassle for a team.

 

[Anarchy99]

Ric

e wasn't doing that good two years ago before his troubles.

2012 - great year

2013 - down year

2014 - looked great in camp, and then suspended

2013 was a terrible year. He looked awful. 3.1 YPA and 5.5 YPC. Everyone looks great in camp.

Marshawn Lynch had two sub 4.0 years, did you write him off?

The idea that one down year from a back is a reason to make a player undraftable isn't consistent with history.

1 bad year and the fact that he hasn't been signed by ANYONE in 2 years.

At 25, Justin Blackmon is in his prime, too. Maybe it's different for receivers.

As far as Rice goes, I would guess AT LEAST three quarters of the league wouldn't even think about touching him. There are probably only five teams that would even consider signing him, and that's only if they were totally desperate. No one wants the firestorm and baggage attached to him. Literally, he's more of a curse P.R. wise than Vick was.

But I guess technically Rice would be a value if his projections are for 0 fantasy points and if he somehow saw the field, anything he scored would beat his projection.

 

[Warrior]

Ray Rice...looking spry the last time he was playing.

double lol

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I like the Bradford pick, he is almost certainly top 12 in Philly, with upside imo.

Not yet mentioned is Stevie Johnson. He's been a forgotten man with his bad situation and groin maladies the last few years... he is now playing with the best QB he has ever played with... top 20 is not crazy talk.

 

[ponchsox]

I like the Bradford pick, he is almost certainly top 12 in Philly, with upside imo.

Not yet mentioned is Stevie Johnson. He's been a forgotten man with his bad situation and groin maladies the last few years... he is now playing with the best QB he has ever played with... top 20 is not crazy talk.

If you take Bradford, you pretty much have to roster Sanchez with him and another backup, right?

 

[Freelove]

I like the Bradford pick, he is almost certainly top 12 in Philly, with upside imo.

Not yet mentioned is Stevie Johnson. He's been a forgotten man with his bad situation and groin maladies the last few years... he is now playing with the best QB he has ever played with... top 20 is not crazy talk.

If you take Bradford, you pretty much have to roster Sanchez with him and another backup, right?

I prefer Bradford as my backup to one of the mid-late QB's (Eli, Rivers, etc.), and let the Sanchez chips fall where they may. If he flames out or tears something, there should be penny options left in FA if I can't win the race to Sanchez. I could live with Carr or RG3 or Alex Smith as my #2 if it came to that. (Not bothering to look up ADP's. Just know that those are a few names I've seen go unrostered in 12's so far.)

 

[bturk]

As for Palmer, in my all TD = 6 pts league last year, in the 6 games Palmer played in, he ranked 5, 16, 13, 10, 7, and 25. That's putting up about as good numbers as he has in years against predominently weak defenses. Those weeks he was 14, 21, 22, 34, 23, and 41 points away from the top scorer in that particular week. So, yeah, top QB scorers can win a game for you almost by themselves.

To be fair to Palmer, there happened to be some crazy QB scores some of those weeks, but the point remains that getting only "OK" QB scoring can get you obliterated. Clearly indiviudal league scoring enters into all of this, but in many if not most leagues QBs score the most points. Istill have never figured out why people want to ignore the HUGE scoring diffential in the long haul between QBs.

Yeah, you can get decent (but not great) scoring from a number of mid round QB guys, but the scoring differential between a top QB and a Top 12-15 QB could be almost the same as if you took a 0 every week at one of your other fantasy positions.

So, are you a 1st round buyer of Rogers, a 2nd round buyer of Luck or even a third for Wilson?

 

[Anarchy99]

As for Palmer, in my all TD = 6 pts league last year, in the 6 games Palmer played in, he ranked 5, 16, 13, 10, 7, and 25. That's putting up about as good numbers as he has in years against predominently weak defenses. Those weeks he was 14, 21, 22, 34, 23, and 41 points away from the top scorer in that particular week. So, yeah, top QB scorers can win a game for you almost by themselves.

To be fair to Palmer, there happened to be some crazy QB scores some of those weeks, but the point remains that getting only "OK" QB scoring can get you obliterated. Clearly indiviudal league scoring enters into all of this, but in many if not most leagues QBs score the most points. Istill have never figured out why people want to ignore the HUGE scoring diffential in the long haul between QBs.

Yeah, you can get decent (but not great) scoring from a number of mid round QB guys, but the scoring differential between a top QB and a Top 12-15 QB could be almost the same as if you took a 0 every week at one of your other fantasy positions.

So, are you a 1st round buyer of Rogers, a 2nd round buyer of Luck or even a third for Wilson?

Depends on the rules and the scoring of each league. If the scoring favors certain positions, I consider taking anyone at any point. But I have to be pretty sure that whomever I take is going to produce at the level I think he will or it's not worth the pick, IMO. Just upside doesn't do it for me.

On the flip side, I don't want to put myself in a situation where my 10th round starter has to have a career year or a career renaissance to be start worthy as a best case scenario. I think it takes top or near the top QB scoring to win. When and where you get it is the issue.

All that being said, I have confidence in my ability to get decent options at all points in the draft. I just want to make sure I have my bases covered. I recently waited on QB and ended up with Brady - Eli - Dalton at QB. I have been all over Brady this season and see him as a Top 3 QB, and once people poo pooed him as being suspended and ignoring him. This year, I have been doubling up in QBs in rounds 8-10, as I like the options that are available. I don't totally hate Palmer, but I would want him as a backup of depth guy not a starter. I have owner him plenty of times, and he never really seems to carry a ton of fantasy value (for the reasons I already mentioned). I just don't see him consistently producing in that "top or near the top" scoring bandwidth. If others see the situation differently and have more faith in him, feel free.

I have not partaken in the Rodgers or Luck sweepstakes in the early going, as I have been targeting Gronk instead, as I think he will lap the TE field this year and have a year similar or better to 2011. However, his value gets a bump up in my book as Graham, Thomas, Bennett, Witten, and Gates all appear to be in line for lower production. Add it all up, and Gronk could almost double up on scoring vs. the #2 TE. (1400/16+ for Gronk with Graham or a couple other TE in the 800/8 range.)

The issue I have for Luck is that people are making it out like he is a lock for 5000/50. Sure, IND added some more options in Johnson, Gore, and Dorsett. But Luck had almost 620 attempts last year. There is only one football. My point being, unless he throws a lot more passes (doubtful), the Colts will just be changing the names of the targets or the distribution of passes. Maybe the guys they brought in have a little more to offer, but I don't think there is a huge difference in personnel. IMO, Johnson Gore each have lost a step and Dorsett is a wildcard as a rookie. The Colts had a lot of good receiving targets the last few years. They still have a lot of receiving targets this year. I guess we will have to wait and see how this plays out, but I don't see a huge difference from Wayne, Nicks, and Bradshaw. Some yes, but passing TDs, no. If the Colts are as good as some people think they are, they will be winning and running the football more.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

I like the Bradford pick, he is almost certainly top 12 in Philly, with upside imo.

Not yet mentioned is Stevie Johnson. He's been a forgotten man with his bad situation and groin maladies the last few years... he is now playing with the best QB he has ever played with... top 20 is not crazy talk.

If you take Bradford, you pretty much have to roster Sanchez with him and another backup, right?

I prefer Bradford as my backup to one of the mid-late QB's (Eli, Rivers, etc.), and let the Sanchez chips fall where they may. If he flames out or tears something, there should be penny options left in FA if I can't win the race to Sanchez. I could live with Carr or RG3 or Alex Smith as my #2 if it came to that. (Not bothering to look up ADP's. Just know that those are a few names I've seen go unrostered in 12's so far.)

Yeah, I'm not taking Bradford as my QB1, he would be my backup with upside, or maybe QBBC if things fell that way. I would not roster Sanchez as my third QB.

 

[skinsrule05]

I don't get the hate on Ray Rice...he's going to be signed and was looking spry the last time he was playing.

Not to mention he can be had near the end of every draft.

I don't think he'll suit up again and even if he does the likelihood of him having a significant role is very slim. His skills were declining, now he's been out of football for a year and he's just not worth the hassle for a team.

This is the answer. Both AP and Rice are pieces of garbage in their personal lives. The difference is AP still had skills. So it wasn't even a question of whether he would play again. Rice on the other hand hasn't shown any skills in two years (other then another poster saying he had a good camp). Talent and winning makes a lot of people forget what kind of person you are off the field.

 

[Jack White]

1) Carson Palmer - top 15 upside with 13th round ADP, guaranteed QB2

2) Joseph Randle - major bust candidate

3) Rashad Jennings - top 15 upside with injury concerns

4) Eli Manning - top 5 upside with 10th round ADP and high floor

5) Ray Rice - not being drafted in many drafts because he got caught on video punching his wife in the face . . . and, oh yeah, he's washed up

Give me yours!

Ryan Tannehill - getting better every year, lots of weapons, and also contributes to your fantasy score with rushing numbers

Latavius Murray - good talent, no real competition, and will catch plenty of passes on designed screens and check-downs even if Helu is the third-down back

Joique Bell - proven RB who can run between the tackles, catch passes and get the short TDs inside the 5. The Ameer hype train gives him even more value as a potential RB2 of FLEX you can in the 7th round or later

Roy Helu - also a talented back who gives you late round value as a pass catcher in PPR leagues, and could be the handcuff in the event of an injury to Latavius.

DeSean - Going around WR30, he's a guy who can blow up and win you games single-handedly (provided you can absorb the occasional 2-39 game)

Anquan/Colston/Senior - grabbing one of these guys is cheap, and still have the skills to be a WR3 in PPR.

Stevie Johnson - Just 29 years old, and now with a real QB again in Phil Rivers

Ruben Randle - The 3rd WR in a good offense (and a bad defense that creates lots of passing and garbage time) is valuable in and of itself. Add in the fact that Victor Cruz is coming off a gruesome patellar tendon injury, and Randle could emerge as a weekly fantasy starter.

Tight End - If you don't get Gronk, don't panic and draft Jimmy, Olsen, Kelce or Black Unicorn (you should be drafting more RBs and WRs in those rounds). You can grab two of these guys in the 9th round or later and be just fine at the position: Daniels, Witten, Delanie, Eifert, Hill, Rudolph, Allen, Gates, ASJ, Reed.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

I like the Bradford pick, he is almost certainly top 12 in Philly, with upside imo.

Not yet mentioned is Stevie Johnson. He's been a forgotten man with his bad situation and groin maladies the last few years... he is now playing with the best QB he has ever played with... top 20 is not crazy talk.

Speaking of guys going to a better place, Jordan Cameron moving from Browns to Miami.

 

[Ilov80s]

I like the Bradford pick, he is almost certainly top 12 in Philly, with upside imo.

Not yet mentioned is Stevie Johnson. He's been a forgotten man with his bad situation and groin maladies the last few years... he is now playing with the best QB he has ever played with... top 20 is not crazy talk.

Speaking of guys going to a better place, Jordan Cameron moving from Browns to Miami.

It's the best TE role in fantasy. Clay was force fed the ball around the GL last year and couldn't do anything with it. Cameron has 10+ TD potential. I posted details in the Jordan Cameron thread.

 

[TripItUp]

I don't get the hate on Ray Rice...he's going to be signed and was looking spry the last time he was playing.

Not to mention he can be had near the end of every draft.

I don't think he'll suit up again and even if he does the likelihood of him having a significant role is very slim. His skills were declining, now he's been out of football for a year and he's just not worth the hassle for a team.

This is the answer. Both AP and Rice are pieces of garbage in their personal lives. The difference is AP still had skills. So it wasn't even a question of whether he would play again. Rice on the other hand hasn't shown any skills in two years (other then another poster saying he had a good camp). Talent and winning makes a lot of people forget what kind of person you are off the field.

Rice is getting signed, just a matter of when.

 

[TripItUp]

I like the Bradford pick, he is almost certainly top 12 in Philly, with upside imo.

Not yet mentioned is Stevie Johnson. He's been a forgotten man with his bad situation and groin maladies the last few years... he is now playing with the best QB he has ever played with... top 20 is not crazy talk.

Speaking of guys going to a better place, Jordan Cameron moving from Browns to Miami.

It's the best TE role in fantasy. Clay was force fed the ball around the GL last year and couldn't do anything with it. Cameron has 10+ TD potential.I posted details in the Jordan Cameron thread.

I'm warming up to the idea of Cameron...for me it'll depend on how far he slides.

 

[Ilov80s]

I like the Bradford pick, he is almost certainly top 12 in Philly, with upside imo.

Not yet mentioned is Stevie Johnson. He's been a forgotten man with his bad situation and groin maladies the last few years... he is now playing with the best QB he has ever played with... top 20 is not crazy talk.

Speaking of guys going to a better place, Jordan Cameron moving from Browns to Miami.

It's the best TE role in fantasy. Clay was force fed the ball around the GL last year and couldn't do anything with it. Cameron has 10+ TD potential.I posted details in the Jordan Cameron thread.

I'm warming up to the idea of Cameron...for me it'll depend on how far he slides.

Yeah, draft slot is key. He is probably the only TE I would be willing to take between Gronk and round 10.

 

[Ilov80s]

at the bolded

Who is laughing now? Although most people here really flubbed the predictions so feel free to laugh at mine. 

 

[Tau837]

Who is laughing now? Although most people here really flubbed the predictions so feel free to laugh at mine. 

Yes, I posted in another thread after the season that I was wrong about him. Kudos to everyone who was right about it. 

 

[spider321]

Most of these picks are brutal.

Goes to show that we are all just guessing, and I'm glad I did not post in here before last season.  lol.