Trump Approval Increasing, Support for Impeachment falling (1 Viewer)

[Dickies]

Having just come from reading jon's "False Narratives" thread, this last post amuses me.

 

[[scooter]]

Trump's approval index at the all-important Rasmussen Poll has dropped 12 points in the past 6 days.

Of course I fully expect his approval rating to (temporarily) creep back up again, but it's worth noting that this is the biggest drop since Rasmussen started polling in early 2017.

Once again, the narrative of Trump Supporters is being torpedoed.

Every time someone brings up a Rasmussen poll its debunked here.

Now it counts?

Polls.  Ugh 

The Rasmussen poll is a worthwhile tool when it comes to gauging the relative opinion of conservatives in America.

However, you are correct that it is a terrible indicator for Trump's overall approval.

 

[Henry Ford]

RECORD HIGH PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS DISAPPROVE OF SENATE CONVICTING TRUMP IN IMPEACHMENT TRIAL, MORNING CONSULT POLL SHOWS

More than 43 percent of voters disapprove of the Senate convicting and removing President Donald Trump from office, a new poll by Morning Consult showed.

The results mark a record high for voters polled by Morning Consult who say they disapprove of Trump's removal. Responses fell largely along party lines, with mostly Republican voters saying they opposed a Senate conviction of the president: 86 percent of Republicans said they disapproved of the Senate removing Trump, while only 10 percent of Democrats said they disapproved of it.

The results also tied another Morning Consult record: a low number of respondents—or 47 percent—said they approve Trump's removal.

Um. Neither of those are records. 

 

[jon_mx]

Um. Neither of those are records. 

Newsweek headline, not mine. 

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Newsweek headline, not mine. 

It’s a record for Morning Consult, not nationally about impeachment.

 

[Henry Ford]

It’s a record for Morning Consult, not nationally about impeachment.

And they’re within the margin of error for almost all of MC’s polls. 

 

[The Commish]

Every time someone brings up a Rasmussen poll its debunked here.

Now it counts?

Polls.  Ugh 

It's always a factor.  In most instances it's an outlier.  So, in this case, the factor is around why is it moving the same way as the others all of a sudden?  It's most likely one of two reasons.

 

[Henry Ford]

538 released its latest poll in conjunction with Ipsos

54% of Americans approve of removing Trump from office, including 18% of Republicans.

52% believe there's enough evidence currently to remove him for his actions with Ukraine.

53% believe there's enough evidence currently to remove him for obstruction.

This is all pretty similar to (within the margin of error of) previous polling.

What we are seeing is increased polarization.  People have moved from "somewhat support..." to "strongly support..." their parties' position, while leaving "support" the same. Also:
December: 65% of Democrats and 48% of Republicans wanted new witnesses.

Now: 74% of Democrats and 41% of Republicans want new  witnesses.

71% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans believe that the Senate will be guided by party politics and not their consciences.  

 

[Juxtatarot]

Now: 74% of Democrats and 41% of Republicans want new  witnesses.

The trend for Republicans on this is declining.  I expect it to continue to do so.

 

[yak651]

The trend for Republicans on this is declining.  I expect it to continue to do so.

Probably true, easier to ignore if you don't have witnesses

 

[jonessed]

538 released its latest poll in conjunction with Ipsos

54% of Americans approve of removing Trump from office, including 18% of Republicans.

52% believe there's enough evidence currently to remove him for his actions with Ukraine.

53% believe there's enough evidence currently to remove him for obstruction.

This is all pretty similar to (within the margin of error of) previous polling.

What we are seeing is increased polarization.  People have moved from "somewhat support..." to "strongly support..." their parties' position, while leaving "support" the same. Also:
December: 65% of Democrats and 48% of Republicans wanted new witnesses.

Now: 74% of Democrats and 41% of Republicans want new  witnesses.

71% of Democrats and 65% of Republicans believe that the Senate will be guided by party politics and not their consciences.  

Interesting.  Ipsos KnowledgeBase uses a paid select panel to conduct their polls.  

 

[Henry Ford]

Interesting.  Ipsos KnowledgeBase uses a paid select panel to conduct their polls.  

And it's the same respondents every few weeks.  Which makes "changing attitudes" a really interesting view.

 

[Stealthycat]

90% of the polls in 2016 said Hillary would win

that's the reliability of polling 

 

[Henry Ford]

90% of the polls in 2016 said Hillary would win

that's the reliability of polling 

I encourage you to look up what the polls actually said.  No poll worth anything ever says "this is who will win."

 

[sho nuff]

I encourage you to look up what the polls actually said.  No poll worth anything ever says "this is who will win."

If only we have had this discussion about 20 times before

 

[Dickies]

I encourage you to look up what the polls actually said.  No poll worth anything ever says "this is who will win."

He's probably been told this 100+ times

 

[Henry Ford]

He's probably been told this 100+ times

Soon, if he had a Dalmation for each one they'd make a movie about him.

 

[Dickies]

Soon, if he had a Dalmation for each one they'd make a movie about him.

101 Polls?

 

[Widbil83]

Impeachment definitely helped this.

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- President Donald Trump's job approval rating has risen to 49%, his highest in Gallup polling since he took office in 2017.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/trump-job-approval-personal-best.aspx

 

[jon_mx]

Gallop also found in the impeachment arena, the poll found that 52% of Americans now favor acquitting Mr. Trump.

 

[Henry Ford]

Impeachment definitely helped this.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/284156/trump-job-approval-personal-best.aspx

It's certainly possible.  I think the fact that primary voting has started is probably a much bigger factor.  Election year approval always rises for sitting politicians during primary season.

 

[Jackstraw]

Maybe they’re sustained but I’d wait a week or two out from impeachment and see where we are. 

 

[PhantomJB]

Trump's current 49% approval puts him ahead of where his predecessor -- Barack Obama -- was at this same time in his first term. (Obama was at 46% approval.)

But it's not just among Republicans where Trump's numbers have improved. His approval among independents in this latest Gallup poll is 42% -- up 5 points from where he was among this group in January and tied for his highest mark ever among unaffiliateds.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/04/politics/donald-trump-gallup-poll/index.html

 

[jonessed]

Trump's current 49% approval puts him ahead of where his predecessor -- Barack Obama -- was at this same time in his first term. (Obama was at 46% approval.)

But it's not just among Republicans where Trump's numbers have improved. His approval among independents in this latest Gallup poll is 42% -- up 5 points from where he was among this group in January and tied for his highest mark ever among unaffiliateds.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/04/politics/donald-trump-gallup-poll/index.html

This doesn’t bode well for the Democratic candidates.  It’s not a strong bunch.  They are going need for Trump to falter to win.

 

[PhantomJB]

This doesn’t bode well for the Democratic candidates.  It’s not a strong bunch.  They are going need for Trump to falter to win.

Agreed. Trump went all-in on the economy last night. That's what this election will come down to. As long as it is strong the undecideds will resist change.

 

[Juxtatarot]

His approval is trending up but this 49% is a bit of an outlier.  

FiveThirtyEight has him at 43.4%.

 

[The Commish]

His approval is trending up but this 49% is a bit of an outlier.  

FiveThirtyEight has him at 43.4%.

Same as day one....this stuff just doesn't matter and that's terrifying.