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Trump Approval Increasing, Support for Impeachment falling (1 Viewer)

timschochet said:
I have trouble believing that military poll. I’d love to believe it but it feels wrong to me. Anecdotally speaking, some of the strongest Trump supporters I’ve run into are in the military. 

That being said, I have wondered how the military has reacted to certain recent events: not impeachment, but the betrayal of the Kurds, and the pardoning of war criminals. So maybe if support for Trump has eroded that has something to do with it. 

It still doesn’t feel right though. 
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That and a Commander in Chief who has psychopathic tendencies and little to no impulse control, who decides when and where the soldiers are deployed.

 
The highest public support for Clinton's impeachment ever reached is 38%, yet Trump's being at "only" 53% is somehow considered some kind of victory for him. Welcome to politics in 2019.

 
Marauder said:
I don't think it's much of a surprise that the President getting a BJ by an intern in the oval office draws more public interest than the President extorting a foreign government for dirt on his political opponent. I don't think you can draw any conclusion except one is more salacious than the other.
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The reason more people didn’t pay attention is because they knew this is was a partisan Democrats circus. And they were rightfully correct with zero Republican votes. 31 Democrats voted in favor of the impeachment inquiry for Clinton and 5 voted to impeach him. The Democrats didn’t pick up any Republican support throughout this process, they actually lost 3 votes to the Republican side. This went so bad for the Democrats one of their members left the party. 

 
Nancy playing games just before handing it off to the Senate where a key Dem strategy will be to accuse Reps of playing games doesn't seem like a sound strategy.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Nancy playing games just before handing it off to the Senate where a key Dem strategy will be to accuse Reps of playing games doesn't seem like a sound strategy.
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Dems playing games = wanting witnesses to appear, documents to be provided, and a full airing of the facts.

Reps playing games = none of the above.

Hopefully she can point out those subtle differences.  

 
parrot said:
Dems playing games = wanting witnesses to appear, documents to be provided, and a full airing of the facts.

Reps playing games = none of the above.

Hopefully she can point out those subtle differences.  
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Respectfully, I don't think anyone but Dems will agree with your characterization.

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Nancy playing games just before handing it off to the Senate where a key Dem strategy will be to accuse Reps of playing games doesn't seem like a sound strategy.
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I think there is something to the RBG being ill theory.  The vote is a more valuable card to have should something happen to RBG, than it is currently. 

 
Mr Anonymous said:
Respectfully, I don't think anyone but Dems will agree with your characterization.
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Clearly this isn't true. I'm not a Dem but I think that characterization is pretty spot on. I don't know for sure, but I suspect Maurile Tremblay, SaintsInDome2006, Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt, Joe Scarborough, and Justin Amash are just a few examples off the top of my head who would probably agree with that characterization. 

 
turnerj0 said:
Clearly this isn't true. I'm not a Dem but I think that characterization is pretty spot on. I don't know for sure, but I suspect Maurile Tremblay, SaintsInDome2006, Rick Wilson, Steve Schmidt, Joe Scarborough, and Justin Amash are just a few examples off the top of my head who would probably agree with that characterization. 
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2 posters who spend 100% of their time criticizing President Trump in this forum and 4 anti-Trump since day one cry babies agree with you?  Wow strong case.  

 
jon_mx said:
Yes, that was the only data point out of dozens that was below 50 which is why I identified an exception.  Roll eyes.  
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You mean other than 49% on 12/18, I assume.

There have been 18 data points under your stated number of 52% since October, I just identified the lowest.

 
Henry Ford said:
My apologies, it feels like a Monday after taking a couple of days off.  I mean I'm looking forward to updates from the time of or after the MSN poll on Christmas Day.
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I noticed that polling was lighter the week of Thanksgiving.  I'm not sure what to expect out of these Holidays.  Behaviors and attitudes probably shift a bit too. 

 
SaintsInDome2006 said:
Fwiw it's in the link I posted, it's been sub-50 twice, the week of 9/19 and the week of 12/12/19. 

- I think it's fair to say there should be a Gallup:Gallup comp, but it is true that a 7 point jump in a week is significant.
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The 48 percent number was an outlier result, so can't draw much significance from such a jump.  Not sure their methods, but it does not match any of the 6 polling organizations which 535 is following.   When polling organizations which had been producing mid 40 results consistently pop up to 55, then it will be a legitimate jump.  Now it is an obtuse conclusion.  

 
jon_mx said:
The 48 percent number was an outlier result, so can't draw much significance from such a jump.  Not sure their methods, but it does not match any of the 6 polling organizations which 535 is following.   When polling organizations which had been producing mid 40 results consistently pop up to 55, then it will be a legitimate jump.  Now it is an obtuse conclusion.  
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It was 2 points lower than the day before and 1 point lower than the day after, and all were within the margin of error of every one of their polls from 12/3 to 12/19.  That's not what an outlier is.

Edit: and they're likely higher than other polls because their methodology is online polling.

 
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Impeachment still a loser in states that matter. 

Michigan voters continue to oppose the impeachment and removal of President Donald Trump, but opposition has slipped slightly since last year, according to a new poll. 

Likely general election voters opposed impeachment 51% to 44%, a slight decrease from a May 2019 survey when voters opposed impeachment 53% to 40%, according to a Jan. 3-7 poll of 600 voters by Glengariff Group that was provided to The Detroit News.
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https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/01/09/poll-mich-majority-still-opposes-impeachment-but-opposition-waning/2846798001/

 
Widbil83 said:
Likely general election voters opposed impeachment 51% to 44%, a slight decrease from a May 2019 survey when voters opposed impeachment 53% to 40%, according to a Jan. 3-7 poll of 600 voters by Glengariff Group that was provided to The Detroit News.
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Net -13 to net -7 in less than a week? After the holidays and during the hold on the articles. Interesting.

 
Widbil83 said:
Impeachment still a loser in states that matter. 

Michigan voters continue to oppose the impeachment and removal of President Donald Trump, but opposition has slipped slightly since last year, according to a new poll. 

Likely general election voters opposed impeachment 51% to 44%, a slight decrease from a May 2019 survey when voters opposed impeachment 53% to 40%, according to a Jan. 3-7 poll of 600 voters by Glengariff Group that was provided to The Detroit News.
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https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/01/09/poll-mich-majority-still-opposes-impeachment-but-opposition-waning/2846798001/
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Aren't you the guy who said voters would increasingly oppose impeachment the longer it dragged out? Because this poll pretty much torpedoes that theory.

 
It’s hard to understand a campaign that sees a poll saying a battleground state wants a president removed, right now, at a rate of 44% being a good thing. But that’s the Trump campaign all over, admittedly they rode that sort of division to power in 2016. 

 
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Newest poll on 538 conducted by SSRS indicates 51% of Americans believe Trump should be removed from office. 
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/impeachment-polls/

The question:

As you may know, removing a president from office involves two major steps in Congress. First, the House of Representatives must vote on whether there is enough evidence to bring a president to trial before the Senate. This step is called impeachment. Next, the Senate must vote on whether to remove the president from office, or not. As you may know, the House has now impeached Trump and the case has been sent to the Senate for trial. As of now, do you think the Senate should vote to convict Trump and remove him from office, or do you think the Senate should vote against conviction and removal?
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Oh, wow. Same poll asked if there should be additional witnesses beyond what were heard in the House 

69% said yes. 
48% of Republicans said yes. 

 
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Godsbrother said:
It is bizarre that anyone believes that you should have a trial without calling a single witness with firsthand knowledge of the events.  Isn't the whole point to find out the truth?
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The GOP has been quite successful at convincing people that the House is supposed to have done that. 

 
Henry Ford said:
Agreed. The question asks if it should happen right now. Like, before any trial.  45% is tiny in my opinion. 
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I think we are saying the same thing. Given the White House is blocking testimony it seems sure it hurts their case. Even without hearing that a minority of people think he should be acquitted.

 
Godsbrother said:
It is bizarre that anyone believes that you should have a trial without calling a single witness with firsthand knowledge of the events.  Isn't the whole point to find out the truth?
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I don't think there needs to be any more witnesses.  That is assuming that the defense is going to be what we have seen the past week or so of "sure he did those things, so what!".

He did them per the defense and the offenses are text book examples of the types of corruption the founding fathers wrote about.  Shouldn't need any more to remove him.   Should need a lot more to provide cover to not remove him, but that isn't the world we occupy.

 
Bottomfeeder Sports said:
I don't think there needs to be any more witnesses.  That is assuming that the defense is going to be what we have seen the past week or so of "sure he did those things, so what!".

He did them per the defense and the offenses are text book examples of the types of corruption the founding fathers wrote about.  Shouldn't need any more to remove him.   Should need a lot more to provide cover to not remove him, but that isn't the world we occupy.
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Can you imagine an actual jury trial where the defendant is literally on film lying about almost every single thing during the trial.  Then at the end of the proceedings just says - you know what i did it but you can't convict me because it's not a crime. 

 
Trump's approval index at the all-important Rasmussen Poll has dropped 12 points in the past 6 days.

Of course I fully expect his approval rating to (temporarily) creep back up again, but it's worth noting that this is the biggest drop since Rasmussen started polling in early 2017.

Once again, the narrative of Trump Supporters is being torpedoed.

 
[scooter] said:
Trump's approval index at the all-important Rasmussen Poll has dropped 12 points in the past 6 days.

Of course I fully expect his approval rating to (temporarily) creep back up again, but it's worth noting that this is the biggest drop since Rasmussen started polling in early 2017.

Once again, the narrative of Trump Supporters is being torpedoed.
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Sounds like 2016. That favors Trump. Sorry about that.

 
lod001 said:
[scooter] said:
Trump's approval index at the all-important Rasmussen Poll has dropped 12 points in the past 6 days.

Of course I fully expect his approval rating to (temporarily) creep back up again, but it's worth noting that this is the biggest drop since Rasmussen started polling in early 2017.

Once again, the narrative of Trump Supporters is being torpedoed.
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Sounds like 2016. That favors Trump. Sorry about that.
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I understand how some people could misinterpret current polling to the point where they thought that it "sound[ed] like 2016".

However, a closer examination reveals a crucial difference between 2020 and 2016: in 2016, Rasmussen was one of the few pollsters who rated Trump above 50% approval -- yet they currently have him at just 46%.

Therefore, Trump is not in the same position now that he was in 2016.

He could still win re-election of course, but predicting re-election solely on the theory of "polls are always wrong" would be a failure in logic, IMO.

 
[scooter] said:
Trump's approval index at the all-important Rasmussen Poll has dropped 12 points in the past 6 days.

Of course I fully expect his approval rating to (temporarily) creep back up again, but it's worth noting that this is the biggest drop since Rasmussen started polling in early 2017.

Once again, the narrative of Trump Supporters is being torpedoed.
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45 *strong disapproval. Sheesh.

I don’t know if it’s ever been validated but Ras’s one claim is that the strong approve/disapprove intuitively reflects voter passion about a president. It’s currently at -11. It looks like it’s been as high as -15. Last Thursday he was at +1.

 
[scooter] said:
Trump's approval index at the all-important Rasmussen Poll has dropped 12 points in the past 6 days.

Of course I fully expect his approval rating to (temporarily) creep back up again, but it's worth noting that this is the biggest drop since Rasmussen started polling in early 2017.

Once again, the narrative of Trump Supporters is being torpedoed.
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Every time someone brings up a Rasmussen poll its debunked here.

Now it counts?

Polls.  Ugh 

 
RECORD HIGH PERCENTAGE OF VOTERS DISAPPROVE OF SENATE CONVICTING TRUMP IN IMPEACHMENT TRIAL, MORNING CONSULT POLL SHOWS

More than 43 percent of voters disapprove of the Senate convicting and removing President Donald Trump from office, a new poll by Morning Consult showed.

The results mark a record high for voters polled by Morning Consult who say they disapprove of Trump's removal. Responses fell largely along party lines, with mostly Republican voters saying they opposed a Senate conviction of the president: 86 percent of Republicans said they disapproved of the Senate removing Trump, while only 10 percent of Democrats said they disapproved of it.

The results also tied another Morning Consult record: a low number of respondents—or 47 percent—said they approve Trump's removal.

 
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