turner in a dynasty (1 Viewer)

[Roc Pile]

how important is turner if you own LT, i got greedy and let turner go one round too many and somebody took him. I did get B. Jackson and Morency, should i offer those two for turner or is it thought that a starter now is better then a back and maybe a starter next year.

 

[gzilla]

how important is turner if you own LT, i got greedy and let turner go one round too many and somebody took him. I did get B. Jackson and Morency, should i offer those two for turner or is it thought that a starter now is better then a back and maybe a starter next year.

I don't think you'll be able to get him for those two. If you can, take it.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

how important is turner if you own LT, i got greedy and let turner go one round too many and somebody took him. I did get B. Jackson and Morency, should i offer those two for turner or is it thought that a starter now is better then a back and maybe a starter next year.

Id start with Jackson and Morency and then start adding.

 

[jurb26]

Morency alone is worth more than Turner.

 

[CravenM]

That bum can't even start for his own team - how good could he be?

 

[Garts]

Morency alone is worth more than Turner.

 

[Ed4252]

Morency alone is worth more than Turner.

lol?

 

[treat88]

Morency alone is worth more than Turner.

He said dynasty bro.Not even close. Turner by a mile.Not sure it's even close in a redraft.

 

[SSOG]

Morency alone is worth more than Turner.

In an initial 10-team dynasty draft that just wrapped up, Turner went at 4.09 and Morency went at 13.04. Suffice it to say that you're pretty much alone in that opinion.With that said, Brandon Jacobs and Michael Turner went back-to-back in that draft. I think their value is pretty close, and I think it's a bit premature to begin adding things to Jacobs in order to get Turner. What pick was each player drafted with? It's entirely possible that your leaguemate only took Turner because he knew he could get you to panic and overpay for him- it looks to me like you're playing right into his hands here.

 

[King of the Wolfies]

Morency alone is worth more than Turner.

 

[Garts]

any thoughts on where Turner will be the lead guy next year??

Jets??

Cowboys??

Packers??

Titans??

Cleveland??

Houston??

Many options for Burner.

I think he'd fit perfect in Pittsburgh....but Willie is doing fine there so far. MT just seems to run like a Steeler.

 

[toxicbees]

In fantasy football, it's all about current value. Too many owners put too much value on future/upside value in dynasty leagues. With guys like Frank Gore and Willie Parker coming out of nowhere to become stud running backs, who's to say that Brandon Jackson has less value than the Burner?

Barring an injury to LT, Turner will ride the bench all season. Are you willing to give up players that can help you now, hoping that the burner ends up in a favorable position next year? Where he ends up next year will be a huge determining factor in his value, he could end up in a rbbc, and since he's not known for his receiving skills, in a worst case scenario his value would be marginal in a PPR league.

 

[nygiants56]

any thoughts on where Turner will be the lead guy next year??Jets??Cowboys??Packers??Titans??Cleveland??Houston??Many options for Burner.I think he'd fit perfect in Pittsburgh....but Willie is doing fine there so far. MT just seems to run like a Steeler.

IMO, Turner is the Giants opening day starter, 2008. they need a RB.they didn't draft one, despite a few guys being available. This Jacobs/Droughns experiment is going to fall flat on its face.

 

[KellysHeroes]

any thoughts on where Turner will be the lead guy next year??Jets??Cowboys??Packers??Titans??Cleveland??Houston??Many options for Burner.I think he'd fit perfect in Pittsburgh....but Willie is doing fine there so far. MT just seems to run like a Steeler.

IMO, Turner is the Giants opening day starter, 2008. they need a RB.they didn't draft one, despite a few guys being available. This Jacobs/Droughns experiment is going to fall flat on its face.

I could see Cleveland; Hou; Pack; Cowboys; NYGs if BJ doesn't work out.I got the feeling that Turner will be Lamont Jordan like. Hes runs behide the best line in football and that after LT2 beats up Defenses.He hasn't showed me anything.

 

[Banger]

any thoughts on where Turner will be the lead guy next year??Jets??Cowboys??Packers??Titans??Cleveland??Houston??Many options for Burner.I think he'd fit perfect in Pittsburgh....but Willie is doing fine there so far. MT just seems to run like a Steeler.

IMO, Turner is the Giants opening day starter, 2008. they need a RB.they didn't draft one, despite a few guys being available. This Jacobs/Droughns experiment is going to fall flat on its face.

I could see Cleveland; Hou; Pack; Cowboys; NYGs if BJ doesn't work out.I got the feeling that Turner will be Lamont Jordan like. Hes runs behide the best line in football and that after LT2 beats up Defenses.He hasn't showed me anything.

you haven't looked close enough then.

 

[Roc Pile]

i have kenny irons and he has rudi.. im hopping irons shows some flash in preseason, he may way irons for turner

dynasty remember. or do i may want the bengals futurue feature back

 

[el-gato-grande]

I believe Turner was the league leader in the "Average Yards After Contact" runningback stat last year. Someone will have to check me on that, but that tells me he doesn't need a great offensive line to run behind in order to be productive.

None of us pimping Turner over the past year or two is over estimating his worth. He will be a monster. My only concern will be whether he lands in a spot where the strength of the entire offense limits his TD opportunities or if he has to share time in a RBBC.

 

[jurb26]

I believe Turner was the league leader in the "Average Yards After Contact" runningback stat last year. Someone will have to check me on that, but that tells me he doesn't need a great offensive line to run behind in order to be productive. None of us pimping Turner over the past year or two is over estimating his worth. He will be a monster. My only concern will be whether he lands in a spot where the strength of the entire offense limits his TD opportunities or if he has to share time in a RBBC.

Every one here and SD have severely over estimated his worth.

 

[Banger]

I believe Turner was the league leader in the "Average Yards After Contact" runningback stat last year. Someone will have to check me on that, but that tells me he doesn't need a great offensive line to run behind in order to be productive. None of us pimping Turner over the past year or two is over estimating his worth. He will be a monster. My only concern will be whether he lands in a spot where the strength of the entire offense limits his TD opportunities or if he has to share time in a RBBC.

Every one here and SD have severely over estimated his worth.

we"ll see next year...

 

[JohnnyU]

I believe Turner was the league leader in the "Average Yards After Contact" runningback stat last year. Someone will have to check me on that, but that tells me he doesn't need a great offensive line to run behind in order to be productive. None of us pimping Turner over the past year or two is over estimating his worth. He will be a monster. My only concern will be whether he lands in a spot where the strength of the entire offense limits his TD opportunities or if he has to share time in a RBBC.

Every one here and SD have severely over estimated his worth.

What analysis do you have to support that?

 

[jurb26]

I believe Turner was the league leader in the "Average Yards After Contact" runningback stat last year. Someone will have to check me on that, but that tells me he doesn't need a great offensive line to run behind in order to be productive. None of us pimping Turner over the past year or two is over estimating his worth. He will be a monster. My only concern will be whether he lands in a spot where the strength of the entire offense limits his TD opportunities or if he has to share time in a RBBC.

Every one here and SD have severely over estimated his worth.

What analysis do you have to support that?

My eyes. What analysis do you have to support Turner being the next great thing? Color me unimpressed at the limited action he has seen.

 

[Banger]

I believe Turner was the league leader in the "Average Yards After Contact" runningback stat last year. Someone will have to check me on that, but that tells me he doesn't need a great offensive line to run behind in order to be productive. None of us pimping Turner over the past year or two is over estimating his worth. He will be a monster. My only concern will be whether he lands in a spot where the strength of the entire offense limits his TD opportunities or if he has to share time in a RBBC.

Every one here and SD have severely over estimated his worth.

What analysis do you have to support that?

My eyes. What analysis do you have to support Turner being the next great thing? Color me unimpressed at the limited action he has seen.

My eyes tell me the opposite. He's a tank with speed.

 

[treat88]

My eyes. What analysis do you have to support Turner being the next great thing? Color me unimpressed at the limited action he has seen.

You must run into large objects in broad daylight with vision like that.How could his "limited action" be any more impressive?

 

[jurb26]

I believe Turner was the league leader in the "Average Yards After Contact" runningback stat last year. Someone will have to check me on that, but that tells me he doesn't need a great offensive line to run behind in order to be productive. None of us pimping Turner over the past year or two is over estimating his worth. He will be a monster. My only concern will be whether he lands in a spot where the strength of the entire offense limits his TD opportunities or if he has to share time in a RBBC.

Every one here and SD have severely over estimated his worth.

What analysis do you have to support that?

My eyes. What analysis do you have to support Turner being the next great thing? Color me unimpressed at the limited action he has seen.

My eyes tell me the opposite. He's a tank with speed.

He's got poor lateral quickness and would be best served in a RBBC. He does a great job coming in for mop up duty and as a change of pace to LT. I have very little confidence he can carry the load himself. As was said before, we'll see. There is hardly enough evidence to say for sure either way. That's just my opinion.

 

[jurb26]

My eyes. What analysis do you have to support Turner being the next great thing? Color me unimpressed at the limited action he has seen.

You must run into large objects in broad daylight with vision like that.How could his "limited action" be any more impressive?

Wow, never heard that argument before. I'm convinced.

 

[treat88]

My eyes. What analysis do you have to support Turner being the next great thing? Color me unimpressed at the limited action he has seen.

You must run into large objects in broad daylight with vision like that.How could his "limited action" be any more impressive?

Wow, never heard that argument before. I'm convinced.

I wasn't arguing, I was asking.What don't you like about what you've seen?

Poor lateral quickness? Best served in RBBC?

You couldn't sound less informed if you tried.

Give me a factual argument.

Like 157 attempts for 941 yards and 6.0 ypc for his career.

Ya know something that has some basis in reality.

 

[jurb26]

Like 157 attempts for 941 yards and 6.0 ypc for his career.

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

 

[treat88]

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

Like I said, you couldn't sound less informed if you tried.And I think you are trying pretty hard.Please define "functional" numbers. I'll help. You can't.If you have a cogent argument I'd love to hear it.But you are falling flat with the BS.

 

[jurb26]

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

Like I said, you couldn't sound less informed if you tried.And I think you are trying pretty hard.Please define "functional" numbers. I'll help. You can't.If you have a cogent argument I'd love to hear it.But you are falling flat with the BS.

So based on a few decent runs in mop up duty Turner is the next great RB. Well jesh, I could I contest such a compelling argument. Seeing as to how everyone wants to project Turner as an ever down, carry the load fantasy RB. I don't know, maybe some functional numbers would include those showing he can handle such a task. Oh, wait we don't have those.Amos ZereoueTrung CanidateKevin BarlowCome to mind when I think about Turner.

 

[TDavi118]

Turner will be a dominant force in Tennessee next year. Hide and watch.

 

[Ed4252]

Like 157 attempts for 941 yards and 6.0 ypc for his career.

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

GMs aren't trying to trade for those backup RBs. Maurice Morris/Betts aren't being placed on the trading block. Morris had to resign with the Seahawks because he wasn't receiving any offers from other teams.

 

[AtomicDogg97]

Turner the Burner will be a Cleveland Brown in 2008.

 

[Ed4252]

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

Like I said, you couldn't sound less informed if you tried.And I think you are trying pretty hard.Please define "functional" numbers. I'll help. You can't.If you have a cogent argument I'd love to hear it.But you are falling flat with the BS.

So based on a few decent runs in mop up duty Turner is the next great RB. Well jesh, I could I contest such a compelling argument. Seeing as to how everyone wants to project Turner as an ever down, carry the load fantasy RB. I don't know, maybe some functional numbers would include those showing he can handle such a task. Oh, wait we don't have those.Amos ZereoueTrung CanidateKevin BarlowCome to mind when I think about Turner.

Do you want me to give you statistical proof for those 3 RBs and even Lamont Jordan? All you need to do is look at the 1st/2nd quarter splits and you'll see why those 3 failed.

 

[TDavi118]

Turner the Burner will be a Cleveland Brown in 2008.

I disagree. Tennessee Titan........sir.

 

[jurb26]

Like 157 attempts for 941 yards and 6.0 ypc for his career.

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

GMs aren't trying to trade for those backup RBs. Maurice Morris/Betts aren't being placed on the trading block. Morris had to resign with the Seahawks because he wasn't receiving any offers from other teams.

Morris isn't very good. Betts was never intended to be moved by Wash. SD shopped Turner and couldn't get what they wanted for him.

 

[TDavi118]

Like 157 attempts for 941 yards and 6.0 ypc for his career.

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

GMs aren't trying to trade for those backup RBs. Maurice Morris/Betts aren't being placed on the trading block. Morris had to resign with the Seahawks because he wasn't receiving any offers from other teams.

Morris isn't very good. Betts was never intended to be moved by Wash. SD shopped Turner and couldn't get what they wanted for him.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Tennessee was willing to give up the price for Turner, but SD backed out.

 

[jurb26]

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

Like I said, you couldn't sound less informed if you tried.And I think you are trying pretty hard.Please define "functional" numbers. I'll help. You can't.If you have a cogent argument I'd love to hear it.But you are falling flat with the BS.

So based on a few decent runs in mop up duty Turner is the next great RB. Well jesh, I could I contest such a compelling argument. Seeing as to how everyone wants to project Turner as an ever down, carry the load fantasy RB. I don't know, maybe some functional numbers would include those showing he can handle such a task. Oh, wait we don't have those.Amos ZereoueTrung CanidateKevin BarlowCome to mind when I think about Turner.

Do you want me to give you statistical proof for those 3 RBs and even Lamont Jordan? All you need to do is look at the 1st/2nd quarter splits and you'll see why those 3 failed.

78 of his 157 career carries have been in the 4th quarter. Thats half. Turner has had a whooping 16 1st quarter carries in his career. Better yet, 131 of those carries have come when SD has been in the lead.

 

[Banger]

Like 157 attempts for 941 yards and 6.0 ypc for his career.

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

GMs aren't trying to trade for those backup RBs. Maurice Morris/Betts aren't being placed on the trading block. Morris had to resign with the Seahawks because he wasn't receiving any offers from other teams.

Morris isn't very good. Betts was never intended to be moved by Wash. SD shopped Turner and couldn't get what they wanted for him.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Tennessee was willing to give up the price for Turner, but SD backed out.

I don't know if anyone knows what the price ended up being but apparently SD raised it at the last minute which blew it up.

 

[TDavi118]

Like 157 attempts for 941 yards and 6.0 ypc for his career.

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

GMs aren't trying to trade for those backup RBs. Maurice Morris/Betts aren't being placed on the trading block. Morris had to resign with the Seahawks because he wasn't receiving any offers from other teams.

Morris isn't very good. Betts was never intended to be moved by Wash. SD shopped Turner and couldn't get what they wanted for him.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Tennessee was willing to give up the price for Turner, but SD backed out.

I don't know if anyone knows what the price ended up being but apparently SD raised it at the last minute which blew it up.

Exactly...

 

[Ed4252]

Just for you jurb26:

Barlow(while he was with SF):

2002/2003/2004/2005:

1st quarter - 223/906 4.06ypc

2nd quarter - 195/722 3.70 ypc

3rd quarter - 192/823 4.28 ypc

4th quarter/OT - 153/648 4.23 ypc

Jordan (while he was with NYJ): 2002/2003/2004

1st quarter - 19/52 2.73 ypc

2nd quarter - 40/171 4.27 yoc

3rd quarter - 43/256 5.95 ypc

4th quarter/OT - 122/507 4.15 ypc

Turner (2004/2005/2006)

1st quarter - 18/143 8.93 ypc

2nd quarter - 32/161 5.03 ypc

3rd quarter - 33/191 5.78 ypc

4th quarter/OT - 79/470 5.94 ypc

I'll be keeping an eye on Turner's 1st/2nd quarter splits this year.

But this was Steven Jackson's with his limited time in STL in 2004:

1st quarter - 31/180 5.8 ypc

2nd quarter - 38/239 6.3 ypc

3rd quarter - 38/149 3.9 ypc

4th quarter/OT - 27/105 3.9 ypc

Am I stating Turner will be better than S Jackson? No way, but it's proof that Turner doesn't just run over tired defenses and but plays against 1st stringers as well.

 

[Jedimaster21]

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

Like I said, you couldn't sound less informed if you tried.And I think you are trying pretty hard.Please define "functional" numbers. I'll help. You can't.If you have a cogent argument I'd love to hear it.But you are falling flat with the BS.

So based on a few decent runs in mop up duty Turner is the next great RB. Well jesh, I could I contest such a compelling argument. Seeing as to how everyone wants to project Turner as an ever down, carry the load fantasy RB. I don't know, maybe some functional numbers would include those showing he can handle such a task. Oh, wait we don't have those.Amos ZereoueTrung CanidateKevin BarlowCome to mind when I think about Turner.

This is surprising coming from you, Jurb26. I usually agree with a lot of what you post, but I really think you are missing the boat on Turner. I agree that there is a very small sample size, way too small to make a compelling judgement in Turner's favor from stats alone. There are other things to look at, however. 1. He was an elite player in college. Had 648 carries in two seasons, to go along with 33 Tds, and 1648 and 1915 rushing yards in his two seasons. He dominated at NIU, and dropped to the 5th round due to playing against lesser competition. Many other elite players have have also dropped in the draft due to this issue, and it has proven to be a mistake before.2. He ran a 4.46 at the NFL combine at over 230 pounds, and showed measurables equal to the top backs in the draft. 3. He has learned under one of the best RBs of all time for several seasons. LT has also gone on record many times saying that Turner is one of the best backs he has seen. 4. He has averaged over 6 yards per carry for his career. That is not an average that is inflated due to draws on third and long. Although it was at the end of the game, he has gotten many of those yards when the defense knows exactly what the offense is doing. He has also shown the ability to take it the distance when there is some daylight. There are few backs that have his combination of speed and size.5. Having said all this, I have to also put my personal observations in here. I really feel from your descripion that we are not watching the same player. When I see Turner run, I see speed, violence, and power. I see determination and excellent vision/instincts. I think he has what it takes to be a very good back.6. Many NFL teams have shown a lot of interest in acquiring him for several draft picks. The Chargers also put the highest tender on him for a reason. It wasn't because he is decent in a RBBC. It was because they feel like he can step in if there is an issue with LT and be very productive. These opinions have developed from not only his college performance, but his performance in the NFL as well. This fact makes it a lot more accurate than scouting directly out of college. Also, we are talking about the opinions of NFL coaches/GMs here...people who have a lot of knowledge on the subject. 7. He has an excellent work ethic, and has never had any issues off the field. He has handled his contract situation with class, dignity, and patience. Come on man. You may not like him, but comparing him to the players that you did is just ridiculous. Amos weighed 200 pounds, and so did Trung. Neither had the ability to make yards after contact, and didn't have the instincts, size, and speed combination of Turner. Now Barlow has some physical tools (although not at the same level of a Turner), but he never had the heart or work ethic needed to succeed. IMO, those comparisons are pretty silly. By the way, I don't own Turner in any league, and there is little hope that I will. But I love his potential.

 

[-OZ-]

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

Like I said, you couldn't sound less informed if you tried.And I think you are trying pretty hard.Please define "functional" numbers. I'll help. You can't.If you have a cogent argument I'd love to hear it.But you are falling flat with the BS.

So based on a few decent runs in mop up duty Turner is the next great RB. Well jesh, I could I contest such a compelling argument. Seeing as to how everyone wants to project Turner as an ever down, carry the load fantasy RB. I don't know, maybe some functional numbers would include those showing he can handle such a task. Oh, wait we don't have those.Amos ZereoueTrung CanidateKevin BarlowCome to mind when I think about Turner.

some would say "Larry Johnson" but none of us know right now.

 

[treat88]

78 of his 157 career carries have been in the 4th quarter. Thats half. Turner has had a whooping 16 1st quarter carries in his career. Better yet, 131 of those carries have come when SD has been in the lead.

At some point it's best to just admit you don't know what you are talking about and that you sound ridiculous.You passed that point at "lateral quickness".

 

[jurb26]

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

Like I said, you couldn't sound less informed if you tried.And I think you are trying pretty hard.Please define "functional" numbers. I'll help. You can't.If you have a cogent argument I'd love to hear it.But you are falling flat with the BS.

So based on a few decent runs in mop up duty Turner is the next great RB. Well jesh, I could I contest such a compelling argument. Seeing as to how everyone wants to project Turner as an ever down, carry the load fantasy RB. I don't know, maybe some functional numbers would include those showing he can handle such a task. Oh, wait we don't have those.Amos ZereoueTrung CanidateKevin BarlowCome to mind when I think about Turner.

This is surprising coming from you, Jurb26. I usually agree with a lot of what you post, but I really think you are missing the boat on Turner. I agree that there is a very small sample size, way too small to make a compelling judgement in Turner's favor from stats alone. There are other things to look at, however. 1. He was an elite player in college. Had 648 carries in two seasons, to go along with 33 Tds, and 1648 and 1915 rushing yards in his two seasons. He dominated at NIU, and dropped to the 5th round due to playing against lesser competition. Many other elite players have have also dropped in the draft due to this issue, and it has proven to be a mistake before.2. He ran a 4.46 at the NFL combine at over 230 pounds, and showed measurables equal to the top backs in the draft. 3. He has learned under one of the best RBs of all time for several seasons. LT has also gone on record many times saying that Turner is one of the best backs he has seen. 4. He has averaged over 6 yards per carry for his career. That is not an average that is inflated due to draws on third and long. Although it was at the end of the game, he has gotten many of those yards when the defense knows exactly what the offense is doing. He has also shown the ability to take it the distance when there is some daylight. There are few backs that have his combination of speed and size.5. Having said all this, I have to also put my personal observations in here. I really feel from your descripion that we are not watching the same player. When I see Turner run, I see speed, violence, and power. I see determination and excellent vision/instincts. I think he has what it takes to be a very good back.6. Many NFL teams have shown a lot of interest in acquiring him for several draft picks. The Chargers also put the highest tender on him for a reason. It wasn't because he is decent in a RBBC. It was because they feel like he can step in if there is an issue with LT and be very productive. These opinions have developed from not only his college performance, but his performance in the NFL as well. This fact makes it a lot more accurate than scouting directly out of college. Also, we are talking about the opinions of NFL coaches/GMs here...people who have a lot of knowledge on the subject. 7. He has an excellent work ethic, and has never had any issues off the field. He has handled his contract situation with class, dignity, and patience. Come on man. You may not like him, but comparing him to the players that you did is just ridiculous. Amos weighed 200 pounds, and so did Trung. Neither had the ability to make yards after contact, and didn't have the instincts, size, and speed combination of Turner. Now Barlow has some physical tools (although not at the same level of a Turner), but he never had the heart or work ethic needed to succeed. IMO, those comparisons are pretty silly. By the way, I don't own Turner in any league, and there is little hope that I will. But I love his potential.

Quite honestly, I don't see how these observations are very different from the RBs listed.1. All of the listed were elite college players as well. Amos was a beast in college. Barlow fell due to some injuries. Trung was a 1st round pick.2. All of the above backs had good numbers, just not the same size.... Barlow did I guess.3. Trung learned under Faulk, Amos under Bettis and Barlow under Hearst (OK, maybe thats not the best example but he did have a few great years).4. It might not be downs where the D is guessing, but more times than not, they are deflated and defeated. Especially considering how physical SDs oline plays and Turners size. That size and speed sure is nice after a tired D has been chasing LT around for 3 and a half quarters. Let it be known however, I do like Turners size and speed combo a great deal. It is his lateral quickness and vision I am not fond of. Again, I think he is a great change of pace RB. Just not every down material.5. I'd agree with most of this. Only that I don't think the vision and instincts are as good as you seem to. Yes, I have watched Turner run. I don't make judgments on players I have not seen and I think you know that if you've followed my posts. Could I be wrong? Of course. I was wrong on Barlow in thinking he would be a good featured RB. The sample size is awful small. From what I've seen however, Turner is going to need to land in the right situation to become the RB people want him to be. SD is the right situation.6. We have no accurate information as to what the going price was for Turner. Only that SD tried to screw another team in value for him at the last minute.... big surprise. What good reason did SD have to let him go? He is cheap and they know he fits their team well. They are trying to win NOW. They could afford to be selfish. He was not threatening a hold out or demanding a new contract. Unless SD could bend someone over there was no reason to deal him... so they didn't.7. No argument there. I think Turner is a 1st class player with a great attitude. That still doesn't mean he can be a featured RB however.Again, I am not saying that Turner is a bad player. Not in the least. Only that I don't think he is a lock to be a featured RB or have success in that role like many others want to think. It is not easy to be a featured RB. Given the right situation he could be successful, of course. I don't find that situation to be likely in his future is all. We've already seen people chime in that he will land in Hou or Clev. I don't think he is currently better than either of Green or Lewis. Granted, both of them have had injury issues the past few year. Given a healthy body, I'd take Green and Lewis.

 

[Jedimaster21]

Yeah we've never seen back up RBs put up decent numbers in mop up duty before. That's a huge sample size over a 3 year span. Those are real "functional" numbers.

Like I said, you couldn't sound less informed if you tried.And I think you are trying pretty hard.Please define "functional" numbers. I'll help. You can't.If you have a cogent argument I'd love to hear it.But you are falling flat with the BS.

So based on a few decent runs in mop up duty Turner is the next great RB. Well jesh, I could I contest such a compelling argument. Seeing as to how everyone wants to project Turner as an ever down, carry the load fantasy RB. I don't know, maybe some functional numbers would include those showing he can handle such a task. Oh, wait we don't have those.Amos ZereoueTrung CanidateKevin BarlowCome to mind when I think about Turner.

This is surprising coming from you, Jurb26. I usually agree with a lot of what you post, but I really think you are missing the boat on Turner. I agree that there is a very small sample size, way too small to make a compelling judgement in Turner's favor from stats alone. There are other things to look at, however. 1. He was an elite player in college. Had 648 carries in two seasons, to go along with 33 Tds, and 1648 and 1915 rushing yards in his two seasons. He dominated at NIU, and dropped to the 5th round due to playing against lesser competition. Many other elite players have have also dropped in the draft due to this issue, and it has proven to be a mistake before.2. He ran a 4.46 at the NFL combine at over 230 pounds, and showed measurables equal to the top backs in the draft. 3. He has learned under one of the best RBs of all time for several seasons. LT has also gone on record many times saying that Turner is one of the best backs he has seen. 4. He has averaged over 6 yards per carry for his career. That is not an average that is inflated due to draws on third and long. Although it was at the end of the game, he has gotten many of those yards when the defense knows exactly what the offense is doing. He has also shown the ability to take it the distance when there is some daylight. There are few backs that have his combination of speed and size.5. Having said all this, I have to also put my personal observations in here. I really feel from your descripion that we are not watching the same player. When I see Turner run, I see speed, violence, and power. I see determination and excellent vision/instincts. I think he has what it takes to be a very good back.6. Many NFL teams have shown a lot of interest in acquiring him for several draft picks. The Chargers also put the highest tender on him for a reason. It wasn't because he is decent in a RBBC. It was because they feel like he can step in if there is an issue with LT and be very productive. These opinions have developed from not only his college performance, but his performance in the NFL as well. This fact makes it a lot more accurate than scouting directly out of college. Also, we are talking about the opinions of NFL coaches/GMs here...people who have a lot of knowledge on the subject. 7. He has an excellent work ethic, and has never had any issues off the field. He has handled his contract situation with class, dignity, and patience. Come on man. You may not like him, but comparing him to the players that you did is just ridiculous. Amos weighed 200 pounds, and so did Trung. Neither had the ability to make yards after contact, and didn't have the instincts, size, and speed combination of Turner. Now Barlow has some physical tools (although not at the same level of a Turner), but he never had the heart or work ethic needed to succeed. IMO, those comparisons are pretty silly. By the way, I don't own Turner in any league, and there is little hope that I will. But I love his potential.

Quite honestly, I don't see how these observations are very different from the RBs listed.1. All of the listed were elite college players as well. Amos was a beast in college. Barlow fell due to some injuries. Trung was a 1st round pick.2. All of the above backs had good numbers, just not the same size.... Barlow did I guess.3. Trung learned under Faulk, Amos under Bettis and Barlow under Hearst (OK, maybe thats not the best example but he did have a few great years).4. It might not be downs where the D is guessing, but more times than not, they are deflated and defeated. Especially considering how physical SDs oline plays and Turners size. That size and speed sure is nice after a tired D has been chasing LT around for 3 and a half quarters. Let it be known however, I do like Turners size and speed combo a great deal. It is his lateral quickness and vision I am not fond of. Again, I think he is a great change of pace RB. Just not every down material.5. I'd agree with most of this. Only that I don't think the vision and instincts are as good as you seem to. Yes, I have watched Turner run. I don't make judgments on players I have not seen and I think you know that if you've followed my posts. Could I be wrong? Of course. I was wrong on Barlow in thinking he would be a good featured RB. The sample size is awful small. From what I've seen however, Turner is going to need to land in the right situation to become the RB people want him to be. SD is the right situation.6. We have no accurate information as to what the going price was for Turner. Only that SD tried to screw another team in value for him at the last minute.... big surprise. What good reason did SD have to let him go? He is cheap and they know he fits their team well. They are trying to win NOW. They could afford to be selfish. He was not threatening a hold out or demanding a new contract. Unless SD could bend someone over there was no reason to deal him... so they didn't.7. No argument there. I think Turner is a 1st class player with a great attitude. That still doesn't mean he can be a featured RB however.Again, I am not saying that Turner is a bad player. Not in the least. Only that I don't think he is a lock to be a featured RB or have success in that role like many others want to think. It is not easy to be a featured RB. Given the right situation he could be successful, of course. I don't find that situation to be likely in his future is all. We've already seen people chime in that he will land in Hou or Clev. I don't think he is currently better than either of Green or Lewis. Granted, both of them have had injury issues the past few year. Given a healthy body, I'd take Green and Lewis.

I definitely think we differ on our view of Turner as a prospect, so we will just have to wait and see. I do agree with you, however, that the situation he lands in will be huge in determining his value. As for Green and Lewis, they are a lot older, and while they may be productive short term, I think Turner has a much higher upside and lots of talent. These factors make him an excellent investment in a dynasty league, and I would much rather have him long term.

 

[treat88]

It comes down to this:

Every objective measure indicates Turner will be a successful back when given the opportunity. Physical attributes, character, and performance all could not be better.

If you have a gut feeling otherwise that's cool. Maybe even correct.

But don't try to argue the point with bogus terminology and "functional" numbers.

Sounds pathetic.

 

[Lott's Fingertip]

Well, nothing has changed from three months ago when the original Michael Turner thread was started, so I'm not going to write a novel.... but Jurb isn't the only one with concerns.

Turner has superb power... I think. Why am I not entirely convinced? Because in just about every highlight he is untouched until he has a full head of steam, then bowls somebody over. It is good that he does this, but how will he be when he gets hit behind the line? I am sure he has good power, and am also sure that he has great balance. But he isn't Earl Campbell.

Concerning his lateral quickness... he is average at best. It's not that he can't make a cut, it's that he isn't built to make a sharp cut and accelerate quickly enough to make something more out of that cut. That's because....

... he doesn't have great INITIAL acceleration. He doesn't have that suddenness that separates the pretty good RBs from the elite. Turner has very good top end speed, especially for his size. But he doesn't reach that top end speed fast enough, IMO.

I don't care about 1st qtr splits, 4th qtr ypc, or anything like that. He has performed exceptionally well running behind a very good OL on a very good team. Turner has never had more than 15 carries in a single game in 3 years. He has had 10 or more carries only 6 times. This is insufficient information to crown him king of all fantasy just yet.

In '04 Jesse Chatman got 6.0 yards per carry behind LT. In '04 Derrick Blaylock got 4.6 ypc behind KC's line, and 5.1 ypc the year before in limited duty. Canidate got 5.7 ypc in '01. Mike Anderson and Olandis Gary had nice runs in Denver... does anybody think they were studs? There are plenty of examples supporting both sides of the Turner argument; it just shows that stats don't tell the whole story.

Here's the thing: Turner has been great in an IDEAL SETTING. This does not mean he won't have great success elsewhere...... but it sure doesn't mean he will be a stud.

I like the guy, I hope he does turn out to be a stud. I really do. I drafted him in the 2nd round when he was a rookie because I thought he was good. And I think he IS good... just not great.

I really feel like he will need a good OL to be a very good fantasy RB. Put him on a bad team, say the '06 Raiders, and he ain't doing squat, because he would have been hit behind the line 1/2 the time, something that has very rarely happened to him in San Diego. Add to this the fact that he has never been used in the passing game, and I just don't see stud. I see a very solid RB that will be very good in the right situation, but doesn't have the right tools to make something out of nothing most of the time, so will be ordinary on a bad team.

Well, dang, I wrote a novel anyway. Nobody is going to be proven right or wrong until September of 2008.... let's have a beer while we wait.

 

[jurb26]

It comes down to this:Every objective measure indicates Turner will be a successful back when given the opportunity. Physical attributes, character, and performance all could not be better.If you have a gut feeling otherwise that's cool. Maybe even correct.But don't try to argue the point with bogus terminology and "functional" numbers.Sounds pathetic.

You are the one who claimed to have "functional" numbers. None of which we have seen yet. Every "objective" measure would lead us to believe that all of these RBs will become successful when given the opportunity as well:NorwoodPerryMJDBushBarber IIIJ. JonesMorencyC. TaylorJacobsBettsLets add Turner to that list.Now lets add the starting RBs in the NFL:LTLJJordanHenryWhite/BrownTaylorAddaiGreenParkerJ. LewisMcGaheeRudiT. JonesMaroneyBrownLynchPortisWestyBensonBell (with Jones waiting in the wings)Foster/WilliamsMcAllister/BushCaddyEdgeJacksonGoreSAHere's the problem. There are only 32 NFL teams and every year another handful of great and talented RBs enter the crop. Some of these guys will emerge, others wont. Guys like C. Taylor can look as great as they want in limited action, get a shot to be the "guy" with a different team. Eventually however, a better talent will surface (A. Peterson) and there just wont be enough room for them as they are not elite talents. Same with Betts behind Portis. I would say of the listed players, Bush and MJD are the only ones that are highly likely to be safe and for obvious reasons. The fringe guys like Turner, Taylor, Betts, J. Jones, Perry (who is now looking like option 3 behind Irons) just aren't strong enough talents to really hang on very long. Maybe you see Turner as that elite talent at RB. So be it. I don't and I really don't see this great opportunity awaiting him in the future. Especially seeing that next years draft will yield yet another blue chip prospect at the position in McFadden and possibly a 2nd with Slaton.

 

[jurb26]

I really feel like he will need a good OL to be a very good fantasy RB. Put him on a bad team, say the '06 Raiders, and he ain't doing squat, because he would have been hit behind the line 1/2 the time, something that has very rarely happened to him in San Diego. Add to this the fact that he has never been used in the passing game, and I just don't see stud. I see a very solid RB that will be very good in the right situation, but doesn't have the right tools to make something out of nothing most of the time, so will be ordinary on a bad team.

Pretty much sums it up for me too.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I believe Turner was the league leader in the "Average Yards After Contact" runningback stat last year. Someone will have to check me on that, but that tells me he doesn't need a great offensive line to run behind in order to be productive.

In each of the last two years, and I don't think it was remotely close either time.The stats are posted somewhere in the 120-page Michael Turner thread . . .