SacramentoBob
Footballguy
I haven't really watched wrestling in a long time, but I've noticed that they have been incorporating MMA style subs into their repertoire a lot more.
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UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (8 Viewers)
- Thread starter AhrnCityPahnder
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SacramentoBob
Footballguy
It was fantastic aim and timing. When I saw it live, I thought Silva had lost his mind.
We aren't actually discussing whether Silva accidentally hit Sonnen (who was sitting and not moving vertically) in the chest, are we? No one in the stands capable of throwing a knee would have missed the dude's face.
modogg
Footballguy
Yup. The lines suck for the show. Not sure where my money will be. Nothing stands out as a great bet, and the lines makers were big douches with these lines. I liked Te Huna and Dillashaw going into it, but laying -345 and -485 is just dumb. i was also hoping some of the dogs would be better, Bruce Leeroy at only +135 sucks. I'm sure i will take some bets, but i'm not happy with these linesETA:Mark Munoz (12-2) +115 vs. Chris Weidman (8-0) -145Joey Beltran (14-7) +275 vs. James Te Huna (14-5) -345Kenny Robertson (11-1) +235 vs. Aaron Simpson (11-3) -295Francis Carmont (18-7) -182 vs. Karlos Vemola (9-2) +152T.J. Dillashaw (5-1) -435 vs. Vaughan Lee (12-7-1) +285Rafael dos Anjos (16-6) -175 vs. Anthony Njokuani (15-6, 1 NC) +145Star-dividePreliminary Card:Alex Caceres (6-5) +135 vs. Damacio Page (15-7) -165Chris Cariaso (13-3) -345 vs. Josh Ferguson (12-4) +265Andrew Craig (7-0) -200 vs. Rafael Natal (14-3-1) +150Marcelo Guimaraes (7-0-1) -345 vs. Dan Stittgen (7-2) +265Raphael Assuncao (16-4) -200 vs. Issei Tamura (7-2) +150
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SacramentoBob
Footballguy
Why is Munoz a slight dog?
SacramentoBob
Footballguy
That 2 point deduction for the groin kick was bull####!
hooter311
Footballguy
Yes, yes it was. Lost a lot on that fight.
hooter311
Footballguy
In 4 UFC fights, I don't think Wiedmann has been taken down yet. His wrestling has translated better to the Octagon than Munoz's. He beat Maia on like 12 days notice last time out which explains why he gassed so hard. Sky is the limit for Wiedmann and he will be fighting for the title some day, but the question is, "Is he ready yet?"Wiedmann's JJ is among the best on the planet. Munoz has never been submitted but he is going to be tested here in a 5 round fight.
For UFC on Fuel, the prelims are on Facebook.
Yep - it's HD on DirecTV.
Sebowski
Footballguy
Also on Fuel.tv for us non-FB people.
hooter311
Footballguy
Counting on the 38 year old Simpson to dominate the prospect for 3 rounds is asking a lot. Especially with this first drop to 170 when Simpson was prone to gassing at 185.
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kutta
Footballguy
Well that sucks. For me that is.
hooter311
Footballguy
Mark Munoz (12-2) +115 vs. Chris Weidman (8-0) -145
Last week I said Munoz, but after further review I'm rolling with Weidman. Munoz is coming off of surgery and I just don't think he can survive 5 rounds of Weidman sub attempts. Look for Munoz to get in some good lucking ground and pound before Weidman sweeps him. Has the potential to be a great fight and go all 5.
Joey Beltran (14-7) +275 vs. James Te Huna (14-5) -345
If Beltran gameplans well enough he can take enough damage from Te Huna to get him to the ground and wear him out enough to win rounds. Te Huna operates on about 40% effectiveness after Round 1. No way would I pay that kind of juice. Beltran doesn't really have much to offer besides being a tough SOB but I give him about a 30-35% chance here.
Kenny Robertson (11-1) +235 vs. Aaron Simpson (11-3) -295
Robertson is a pretty decent prospect whose only loss was to Mike Pierce who is a much better version of Simpson at 170. Robertson fended off the takedown reasonably well against Pierce as well. Simpson is 38 and that is again way too much juice to pay for someone that age that doesn't have a belt. Will probably go a full unit on Kenny.
Francis Carmont (18-7) -182 vs. Karlos Vemola (9-2) +152
Carmont's record isn't the best but he hasn't lost in 4 years and has been training at Tristar. Vemola offers a ton in the power department, but not much elsewhere. Carmont needs to be focused on not taking too much damage in the first or expend too much energy and he should be able to grind the decision. Pretty safe bet, but hard to play against Vemola if you are a fan of violence.
T.J. Dillashaw (5-1) -435 vs. Vaughan Lee (12-7-1) +285
Dillashaw is a good wrestler with a great camp but he is cocky and hasn't done too much to prove himself. Vaughan is feisty and if they are rolling around in transition he will sub Dillashaw. He chains subs with the best of them.
Rafael dos Anjos (16-6) -175 vs. Anthony Njokuani (15-6, 1 NC) +145
I was pretty high on Makdessing until Njokuani tooled him at his own game. Dos Anjos is one of the most criminally underrated guys in UFC. Arguably could be on a 7 fight win streak in the Octagon if not for a bad split decision lost to Tibau and a freak jaw injury in a fight where he would have beat Clay Guida. Fight is pretty close to even, I would love to bet Dos Anjos if he was under -150 but at these odds I have to lean Njokuani, who is 7-2 in fights going to decision, which I like this fight to go to.
Preliminary Card:
Alex Caceres (6-5) +135 vs. Damacio Page (15-7) -165
I thought Caceres was just a clown, but he has made massive improvements and is a contender at 135. Caceres is going to have a 6-7" reach advantage which is a terrible matchup for Page who likes to stay at range. Those long arms are also going to come in handy submitting Page when he gets taken down. The danger in this fight is Caceres being a little too comfortable on the ground and losing rounds searching for subs. Page could also knock his head off, but I think that's a long shot.
Chris Cariaso (13-3) -345 vs. Josh Ferguson (12-4) +265
Cariaso is a very smart fighter who held his own at 135 and should be an immediate contender at 125 as he is better suited. He should fight smart and pick apart Ferguson. He is not going to want to spend any time on the ground with Josh.
Andrew Craig (7-0) -200 vs. Rafael Natal (14-3-1) +150
Craig beat Noke because Noke blew his knee out in the first and still lasted all three. Natal should dominate. Play of the night. Max play for me probably.
Marcelo Guimaraes (7-0-1) -345 vs. Dan Stittgen (7-2) +265
Stiggen had perhaps the worst octagon debut I've ever seen. I don't know if he even through a punch against Stephen Thompson, just stood there and got hit. Still, I can't pay that much juice for a debuting fighter who is known to fight to decision. Guimaraes should be able to control the fight on the ground the entire time, but I dunno maybe Stiggen can wrestle a bit.
Raphael Assuncao (16-4) -200 vs. Issei Tamura (7-2) +150
Tamura's first fight outside of Japan. Assuncao is no slouch. Like him to win and a strong contender for Fight of the Night for me.
Last week I said Munoz, but after further review I'm rolling with Weidman. Munoz is coming off of surgery and I just don't think he can survive 5 rounds of Weidman sub attempts. Look for Munoz to get in some good lucking ground and pound before Weidman sweeps him. Has the potential to be a great fight and go all 5.
Joey Beltran (14-7) +275 vs. James Te Huna (14-5) -345
If Beltran gameplans well enough he can take enough damage from Te Huna to get him to the ground and wear him out enough to win rounds. Te Huna operates on about 40% effectiveness after Round 1. No way would I pay that kind of juice. Beltran doesn't really have much to offer besides being a tough SOB but I give him about a 30-35% chance here.
Kenny Robertson (11-1) +235 vs. Aaron Simpson (11-3) -295
Robertson is a pretty decent prospect whose only loss was to Mike Pierce who is a much better version of Simpson at 170. Robertson fended off the takedown reasonably well against Pierce as well. Simpson is 38 and that is again way too much juice to pay for someone that age that doesn't have a belt. Will probably go a full unit on Kenny.
Francis Carmont (18-7) -182 vs. Karlos Vemola (9-2) +152
Carmont's record isn't the best but he hasn't lost in 4 years and has been training at Tristar. Vemola offers a ton in the power department, but not much elsewhere. Carmont needs to be focused on not taking too much damage in the first or expend too much energy and he should be able to grind the decision. Pretty safe bet, but hard to play against Vemola if you are a fan of violence.
T.J. Dillashaw (5-1) -435 vs. Vaughan Lee (12-7-1) +285
Dillashaw is a good wrestler with a great camp but he is cocky and hasn't done too much to prove himself. Vaughan is feisty and if they are rolling around in transition he will sub Dillashaw. He chains subs with the best of them.
Rafael dos Anjos (16-6) -175 vs. Anthony Njokuani (15-6, 1 NC) +145
I was pretty high on Makdessing until Njokuani tooled him at his own game. Dos Anjos is one of the most criminally underrated guys in UFC. Arguably could be on a 7 fight win streak in the Octagon if not for a bad split decision lost to Tibau and a freak jaw injury in a fight where he would have beat Clay Guida. Fight is pretty close to even, I would love to bet Dos Anjos if he was under -150 but at these odds I have to lean Njokuani, who is 7-2 in fights going to decision, which I like this fight to go to.
Preliminary Card:
Alex Caceres (6-5) +135 vs. Damacio Page (15-7) -165
I thought Caceres was just a clown, but he has made massive improvements and is a contender at 135. Caceres is going to have a 6-7" reach advantage which is a terrible matchup for Page who likes to stay at range. Those long arms are also going to come in handy submitting Page when he gets taken down. The danger in this fight is Caceres being a little too comfortable on the ground and losing rounds searching for subs. Page could also knock his head off, but I think that's a long shot.
Chris Cariaso (13-3) -345 vs. Josh Ferguson (12-4) +265
Cariaso is a very smart fighter who held his own at 135 and should be an immediate contender at 125 as he is better suited. He should fight smart and pick apart Ferguson. He is not going to want to spend any time on the ground with Josh.
Andrew Craig (7-0) -200 vs. Rafael Natal (14-3-1) +150
Craig beat Noke because Noke blew his knee out in the first and still lasted all three. Natal should dominate. Play of the night. Max play for me probably.
Marcelo Guimaraes (7-0-1) -345 vs. Dan Stittgen (7-2) +265
Stiggen had perhaps the worst octagon debut I've ever seen. I don't know if he even through a punch against Stephen Thompson, just stood there and got hit. Still, I can't pay that much juice for a debuting fighter who is known to fight to decision. Guimaraes should be able to control the fight on the ground the entire time, but I dunno maybe Stiggen can wrestle a bit.
Raphael Assuncao (16-4) -200 vs. Issei Tamura (7-2) +150
Tamura's first fight outside of Japan. Assuncao is no slouch. Like him to win and a strong contender for Fight of the Night for me.
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hooter311
Footballguy
Down to +120 with Page at -150 if anyone looking to lock in a free arb.
hooter311
Footballguy
Oops, yes I did.Looking like he will be my biggest play of the night.
modogg
Footballguy
I like Natal as well, though Craig certainly looked game against Noke. I know everyone and their mom is talking about how Noke was injured, but for a debut for Craig, it was very impressive. The big question is can he repeat that performance, and i think at the odds he has been at, no.i'm also on Caracecas and Cariaso. the juice on Cariaso blows at -345, but the guy is legit and will be in contention at bantamweight with in a few fights. have some things for the main card too, biggest play being Carmont over the bohenmoth Vemola. Vemola looks like a stud, but the guy is not the best at the actual fight part. Great in a brawl, but i think Carmont can take him fairly easily in this one
modogg
Footballguy
seems like we're on the same page with most of these, so either we both have a good night, or a bad one. i'll probably take Dos Anjos though, and if Munoz goes above +130 i'll hop on that train. the only one i really disagree with is your Beltran call, I can't think of a better match-up for Te Huna.
Sebowski
Footballguy
I don't like these East Coast friendly TV start times. Even weirder when the show is in CA. The place is probably empty right now. People need to leave work early just to make the main card. Doesn't make much sense.
modogg
Footballguy
yeah, that sucked. i doubled up on it before the fight, hate playing catch up
hooter311
Footballguy
Chained submissions very well. Triangles looking sick.You can watch them on fuel.tv too
modogg
Footballguy
Should have asked earlier. i tried youtube and to see if i could get it through ufc.tv, but no luck with either
modogg
Footballguy
Kenny and Anik really do suck. Pretty sure Njoukani's corner just asked him "which hand" and are acting like his right hand is broken, and neither of these knuckleheads even mention anything about what the corner says. I hate to keep ragging on both of these guys, but it is mind boggling when a corner says something like that, and they don't even mention it
modogg
Footballguy
ETA: honestly probably the most predictable fight of the night.
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Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Damn Carmont looks good.
modogg
Footballguy
Yup, and Vemola looked better then i thought he would too. But that front kick by Carmont was a beauty. I hope the UFC continues to bring him along slowly, but he looks like has has a good foundation and can keep moving up
modogg
Footballguy
Aaron Simpson really may win the title of the most boring fighter in the UFC. I would rather watch Guida take on Maynard any day of the week.
ETA: seems like a real good weight cut though. And even though i put a little on Robertson, I am glad Simpson won. I expect to make good money betting against him going forward. Fitch should beat him, though i am positive i will betting over 2.5 rounds in that one
ETA: seems like a real good weight cut though. And even though i put a little on Robertson, I am glad Simpson won. I expect to make good money betting against him going forward. Fitch should beat him, though i am positive i will betting over 2.5 rounds in that one
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modogg
Footballguy
Real shame this is a Fuel TV card, the Te Huna-Beltran fight is the kind of fight that the general fans would go bonkers over. I am pretty sure Beltran will always be welcomed in the UFC, as long as he doesn't lose 4 in a row. But the guy is certainly in trouble later in his life, he absorbs an enormous amount of damage
ETA: and a perfect answer to the Simpson fight. If it would have been Simpson-Fitch i can't imagine the fans would have been pumped after that, but this Te Huna fight did have a lot of promise to be a fun fight. Good way to set up a free card
ETA: and a perfect answer to the Simpson fight. If it would have been Simpson-Fitch i can't imagine the fans would have been pumped after that, but this Te Huna fight did have a lot of promise to be a fun fight. Good way to set up a free card
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modogg
Footballguy
great fight by both guys. Beltran was a great test for Te Huna, and he almost stole this fight back. I think this is one of those fights that helps both guys. Hopefully Te Huna sees he needs to up his training a bit, and Beltran will certainly be able to stick around
Bad call on the judges, Beltran won that 3rd. I would have said 29-26, 1st would have been a 10-8
Bad call on the judges, Beltran won that 3rd. I would have said 29-26, 1st would have been a 10-8
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modogg
Footballguy
Ugh, Kenny is SO annoying. Everything is the "greatest of all time" and every transition is about to end the fight. I hate to keep on kicking Kenny around because i like him when he does the UFC show, but i really hope the UFC tries some other guys out as color commentators
ETA: but compared to Jay Glazer and Stephan Bonner, Florian may not be too bad
ETA: but compared to Jay Glazer and Stephan Bonner, Florian may not be too bad
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modogg
Footballguy
Bonner calling for a suspension of Rosenthal
modogg
Footballguy
I wonder if they will give him the title shot, I think he deserves it. The blueprint is out there on how to beat Silva, and Weidman's wrestling is top notch, so you have to wonder.And F you Glazer, I typed that Sonnen gave the blueprint before he said it
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Horrible ref job. Munoz at about 10 shots too many.
Weidman very impressive.
Weidman very impressive.
modogg
Footballguy
I don't know. Maybe i am assuming too much, but i imagine these guys talk to the refs at times before fights, and a lot of these guys say let me get punched a ton until i am out cold. I have a lot of faith in Rosenthal, and he was watching it. My original thought was he was giving Munoz a chance to do something and not want to call it too early.
Cliff Clavin
Footballguy
Maybe but I still think it went too long. He was clearly done and taking some nasty shots. It wasn't like he had his arms up deflecting most of the blows. Those were landing flush. A fighter shouldn't have any sway on what the ref does in a fight IMO. Refs discretion, not the fighters.
