UFC wagering: no longer stuck with the old thread title. The window to change it is here! (6 Viewers)

[Voice Of Reason]

I honestly think Overeem beats Fedor, and Fedor's options for who and where he wants to fight will drop severely. i honestly do think Fedor's mgmt. was avoiding Overeem, and I think there was good reason for that

I know people are hyped about Overeem, but he didn't show me anything tonight that I hadn't seen in his past few fights. Truth be told, Rogers has very limited skills and huge power in his shots, and made his name mostly off of the Arlovski win. I would've been shocked if the result had been anything else, and can't believe people have this much faith in the guy. Rogers looked awful out there. Fedor is in a different league altogether, regardless of what Rogers/Fedor looked like.Still haven't had a chance to see if Alistair's gas tank improved at all, and what gets him in trouble - apart from the suspect ground game - is that he wilts when his opponent doesn't back down from him in the standup. Like Mirko, he likes to stalk guys, but that's not going to work against Fedor.

I think this could play very nicely into bettor's hands for the looming Fedor-Overeem fight. The same people that thought Rogers would kill Overeem because of how "good" he looked against Fedor are now going to hop on AO's bandwagon, and could make for a very affordable, sub -200 line for Fedor in that fight. Looking forward to it - unfortunately, it's probably a year away.

i don't know here bud, Fedor hasn't exactly looked that dominating in his last 2 fights. Maybe i am being suckered in again here, but Arlovski was doing well with the stand-up before his flying knee incident, and Rogers had Fedor in a full mount last fight. Uuuvereeeem didn't have the chance to show anything because Rogers looked kind of pathetic. If Overeem could thrown Rogers around like that, I don't know why he couldn't do that with Fedor as well. my though is we'll see this fight in Oct or Nov on CBS, but we'll see how the negotiations with M-1 go.

Rogers mounted Fedor?

Fedor has some of the best balance of anyone in the HW division and he's got very good judo, while Rogers balance is poor. So I wouldn't expect Ubereem to throw Fedor around in the clinch as easily as he did Rogers.

That said, I was very impressed with Overeem's standup in this fight. He seems extremely comfortable standing in punching range and just moved enough to be on the end of Rogers' punches. Fedor is the only other HW that seemingly does that.

If Fedor faces Overeem, I think this fight will be settled in the clinch. Both guys tend to step towards their opponent when their opponent throws strikes, and they both have a good sense of range so that they won't be winging punches while out of range (something Rogers did a few times.) Fedor is very good at throwing strikes to set up clinch throws (Machida does this really well too) and that is probably the way he can beat Overeem. Long right hook > clinch > trip/throw > top position > sub.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SCZhDGQCGgk

Re-watched it, still didn't see Rogers mount Fedor unless you referring to that really high north-south position where Rogers it sitting on Fedor's chest facing his legs.

 

[Sebowski]

Anyone think Hathaway (14-0) has a chance against Diego? Ecudero is guaranteed money, but I hate laying 4-1. Not worth risking 100 just to win 25. What I like to do in these cases is find another sure favorite and parlay them. Diego stood out to me right away, but then I looked up Hathaway and he has some good wins. Beating Diego might be his coming out party while Diego continues to disappoint. I'm going to make the bet, I'm just not sure I want to go as big as I was going to.

Anyone have a good feel for the Diego-Hathaway fight?

 

[Sebowski]

1.5 units on Rashad -115. Rampage is too one dimensional. He has the power to end the fight at any moment, but Rashad is in his head and will have a great gameplan.

Strikeforce tomorrow night. Parlayed .5 unit on Lindland, Woodley, and Bowling parlay works out to about -115. They were all -450 favorites. Made the card a little more interesting for me.

UFC 115 1 unit on Pat Barry vs. Cro Cop at UFC -140. If Barry's odds get better I'll do even more.

UFC 116 .5 unit on Chris Tuchscherer over Brendan Schuab +250. Really like this. Probably going to add a unit to it. I see Tuchscherer wrestling his way to a decision fairly easily. Shcuab had a lot of trouble defending the takedown on TUF.

 

[zander_s]

1.5 units on Rashad -115. Rampage is too one dimensional. He has the power to end the fight at any moment, but Rashad is in his head and will have a great gameplan.

Strikeforce tomorrow night. Parlayed .5 unit on Lindland, Woodley, and Bowling parlay works out to about -115. They were all -450 favorites. Made the card a little more interesting for me.

UFC 115 1 unit on Pat Barry vs. Cro Cop at UFC -140. If Barry's odds get better I'll do even more.

UFC 116 .5 unit on Chris Tuchscherer over Brendan Schuab +250. Really like this. Probably going to add a unit to it. I see Tuchscherer wrestling his way to a decision fairly easily. Shcuab had a lot of trouble defending the takedown on TUF.

I completely agree!! Probably my only action for the card but i'm going large!

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I really like Rampage in this one.

I think Rashad can only win this fight by taking Rampage down and holding him there for the first 2 rounds. Rashad has a great double leg takedown, but his I am not very impressed with his clinch work, and Rampage has shown to be no slouch in the clinch in his fight vs Dan Henderson. All Quinton has to do is stuff Rashad's double leg and I think he wins this fight.

If he does that, Rashad is not nearly the boxer that Rampage is. Rashad also tends to start slow and almost concede the first 3-4 minutes of the first round in most of his fights. He also tends to gas himself out by bobbing and weaving so much, so even if Rampage gets taken down and held down for the first 2 rounds, Rampage still has a chance to win the fight.

I am assuming this is a 3 round fight, but I really hope that I am wrong and the UFC makes this a 5 rounder. If it is 5, I think Rampage has a bigger advantage.

 

[modogg]

1.5 units on Rashad -115. Rampage is too one dimensional. He has the power to end the fight at any moment, but Rashad is in his head and will have a great gameplan.

Strikeforce tomorrow night. Parlayed .5 unit on Lindland, Woodley, and Bowling parlay works out to about -115. They were all -450 favorites. Made the card a little more interesting for me.

UFC 115 1 unit on Pat Barry vs. Cro Cop at UFC -140. If Barry's odds get better I'll do even more.

UFC 116 .5 unit on Chris Tuchscherer over Brendan Schuab +250. Really like this. Probably going to add a unit to it. I see Tuchscherer wrestling his way to a decision fairly easily. Shcuab had a lot of trouble defending the takedown on TUF.

I completely agree!! Probably my only action for the card but i'm going large!

I like it as well. And Big Timmy dropped to -205 so i put a little on him tonight. I hate putting any faith in that fat-### (weighing in at 305 for this fight??), but i know Sheer posted about this fight a page or 2 back, so i will give him a shot. Not overly confident here, but what the hell

 

[sheerterror]

1.5 units on Rashad -115. Rampage is too one dimensional. He has the power to end the fight at any moment, but Rashad is in his head and will have a great gameplan.

Strikeforce tomorrow night. Parlayed .5 unit on Lindland, Woodley, and Bowling parlay works out to about -115. They were all -450 favorites. Made the card a little more interesting for me.

UFC 115 1 unit on Pat Barry vs. Cro Cop at UFC -140. If Barry's odds get better I'll do even more.

UFC 116 .5 unit on Chris Tuchscherer over Brendan Schuab +250. Really like this. Probably going to add a unit to it. I see Tuchscherer wrestling his way to a decision fairly easily. Shcuab had a lot of trouble defending the takedown on TUF.

I completely agree!! Probably my only action for the card but i'm going large!

I like it as well. And Big Timmy dropped to -205 so i put a little on him tonight. I hate putting any faith in that fat-### (weighing in at 305 for this fight??), but i know Sheer posted about this fight a page or 2 back, so i will give him a shot. Not overly confident here, but what the hell

Good luck mo! It pains all of us to bet on that boring ######## Sylvia, but I've maintained and will continue to maintain that if this fight is not a work (doubtful since it's in the US) and Sylvia gives even half a #### about fighting and not just about paychecks, this should be a cakewalk for him. Pudz's only real prayer aside from a flash KO - it's one thing to happen against a former pro boxer in Ray Mercer as embarassing as that was - but it's just unlikely from a guy at a reach disadvantage and minimal training regardless of how strong he is - is to grab a hold of Sylvia and lay n' pray. Don't see that as particularly likely given Pudz had trouble holding down his 215lb journeyman opponent in his last fight - how's he going to do that against a guy who is 305 (albeit, likely very out of shape) who actually has years and years of MMA training under his belt? The rapid decline of Sylvia's career has been well documented, but aside from his flukey loss against Mercer, he's only been beaten by top quality opponents in his whole career. If he's serious about wanting to get back into one of the bigger promotions, he knows he's got to start by winning against the cans he steps in front of. The gamble that he is in fact in this for nothing more than a paycheck is what is keeping this line affordable IMO. I'm betting that he cares more than people think and should, as a result, handle side show Pudz pretty easily.

 

[modogg]

1.5 units on Rashad -115. Rampage is too one dimensional. He has the power to end the fight at any moment, but Rashad is in his head and will have a great gameplan.

Strikeforce tomorrow night. Parlayed .5 unit on Lindland, Woodley, and Bowling parlay works out to about -115. They were all -450 favorites. Made the card a little more interesting for me.

UFC 115 1 unit on Pat Barry vs. Cro Cop at UFC -140. If Barry's odds get better I'll do even more.

UFC 116 .5 unit on Chris Tuchscherer over Brendan Schuab +250. Really like this. Probably going to add a unit to it. I see Tuchscherer wrestling his way to a decision fairly easily. Shcuab had a lot of trouble defending the takedown on TUF.

I completely agree!! Probably my only action for the card but i'm going large!

I like it as well. And Big Timmy dropped to -205 so i put a little on him tonight. I hate putting any faith in that fat-### (weighing in at 305 for this fight??), but i know Sheer posted about this fight a page or 2 back, so i will give him a shot. Not overly confident here, but what the hell

Good luck mo! It pains all of us to bet on that boring ######## Sylvia, but I've maintained and will continue to maintain that if this fight is not a work (doubtful since it's in the US) and Sylvia gives even half a #### about fighting and not just about paychecks, this should be a cakewalk for him. Pudz's only real prayer aside from a flash KO - it's one thing to happen against a former pro boxer in Ray Mercer as embarassing as that was - but it's just unlikely from a guy at a reach disadvantage and minimal training regardless of how strong he is - is to grab a hold of Sylvia and lay n' pray. Don't see that as particularly likely given Pudz had trouble holding down his 215lb journeyman opponent in his last fight - how's he going to do that against a guy who is 305 (albeit, likely very out of shape) who actually has years and years of MMA training under his belt? The rapid decline of Sylvia's career has been well documented, but aside from his flukey loss against Mercer, he's only been beaten by top quality opponents in his whole career. If he's serious about wanting to get back into one of the bigger promotions, he knows he's got to start by winning against the cans he steps in front of. The gamble that he is in fact in this for nothing more than a paycheck is what is keeping this line affordable IMO. I'm betting that he cares more than people think and should, as a result, handle side show Pudz pretty easily.

I thought about trying some other plays on that card, and luckily didn't take it. I am an Yves Edwards fan and figured what the hell he should win, but luckily decided against it. I did end up putting a .25 unit on Spencer Pratt's boy, based on the fact that Lindland is just an old man. I love the Randy Couture effect, that every legend fighter nearing 40 can avoid the age factor. probably won't pan out here, but we'll see

 

[Clayton Gray]

Sylvia / Pudzianowski ending:

 

[sheerterror]

Well, that fight was an embarassment to MMA. My only regret is having not added more when it dropped to -205. LOL @ people overreacting to weigh-in photos...as if we were really to expect those two to have looked any different. Pudzianowski had no business being on a US MMA PPV, let alone in the ring with a former UFC HW champion, regardless of how downhill his career has gone. That was free money at its finest.

 

[Sebowski]

1.5 units on Rashad -115. Rampage is too one dimensional. He has the power to end the fight at any moment, but Rashad is in his head and will have a great gameplan.

Strikeforce tomorrow night. Parlayed .5 unit on Lindland, Woodley, and Bowling parlay works out to about -115. They were all -450 favorites. Made the card a little more interesting for me.

UFC 115 1 unit on Pat Barry vs. Cro Cop at UFC -140. If Barry's odds get better I'll do even more.

UFC 116 .5 unit on Chris Tuchscherer over Brendan Schuab +250. Really like this. Probably going to add a unit to it. I see Tuchscherer wrestling his way to a decision fairly easily. Shcuab had a lot of trouble defending the takedown on TUF.

Won my parlay, but it wasn't pretty. Bowling was dominating, but the fight was stopped due to an eye injury. I thought the right call since it wasn;t an illegal blow was that Bowling would lose the fight. Luckily for me they went to the score cards. Woodley looked terrible and was the beneficiary of a horrible judging. Coy was robbed.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Well, that fight was an embarassment to MMA. My only regret is having not added more when it dropped to -205. LOL @ people overreacting to weigh-in photos...as if we were really to expect those two to have looked any different. Pudzianowski had no business being on a US MMA PPV, let alone in the ring with a former UFC HW champion, regardless of how downhill his career has gone. That was free money at its finest.

Mariusz Pudzianowski:

"I knew I could possibly prolong the fight for a little bit longer, but because of my conditioning, or lack of conditioning, I decided there was really no sense to do it, point to do it. The conditioning was by far the deciding factor for me in not continuing to fight."

Tim Sylvia:

"I consider myself something of a legend in MMA and I go out there and ... I see Polish guys screaming at and yelling his name. Fortunately the fight went the way I wanted it to go. ... He went a minute 15 seconds longer than I thought he was going to."

 

[modogg]

1.5 units on Rashad -115. Rampage is too one dimensional. He has the power to end the fight at any moment, but Rashad is in his head and will have a great gameplan.

Strikeforce tomorrow night. Parlayed .5 unit on Lindland, Woodley, and Bowling parlay works out to about -115. They were all -450 favorites. Made the card a little more interesting for me.

UFC 115 1 unit on Pat Barry vs. Cro Cop at UFC -140. If Barry's odds get better I'll do even more.

UFC 116 .5 unit on Chris Tuchscherer over Brendan Schuab +250. Really like this. Probably going to add a unit to it. I see Tuchscherer wrestling his way to a decision fairly easily. Shcuab had a lot of trouble defending the takedown on TUF.

Won my parlay, but it wasn't pretty. Bowling was dominating, but the fight was stopped due to an eye injury. I thought the right call since it wasn;t an illegal blow was that Bowling would lose the fight. Luckily for me they went to the score cards. Woodley looked terrible and was the beneficiary of a horrible judging. Coy was robbed.

yup. i was coming to post the congrats for you, but i had .3 unit on Coy, and was kind of disgusted with that judging. it wasn't the worse seen, probably even in the last year, but i still think Coy should have won the decisionEDIT: I also have no idea how Kasey didn't beat Lindland in that first round when he had him in the figure four body lock going for the rear naked choke with 3 minutes to go in the first. I just don't know how he couldn't finish the fight with that much time. Pre-fight he was bragging how superior his BJJ was, but not being able to finish in that position can't make his coaches too impressed

 

[modogg]

Well, that fight was an embarassment to MMA. My only regret is having not added more when it dropped to -205. LOL @ people overreacting to weigh-in photos...as if we were really to expect those two to have looked any different. Pudzianowski had no business being on a US MMA PPV, let alone in the ring with a former UFC HW champion, regardless of how downhill his career has gone. That was free money at its finest.

Mariusz Pudzianowski:

"I knew I could possibly prolong the fight for a little bit longer, but because of my conditioning, or lack of conditioning, I decided there was really no sense to do it, point to do it. The conditioning was by far the deciding factor for me in not continuing to fight."

Tim Sylvia:

"I consider myself something of a legend in MMA and I go out there and ... I see Polish guys screaming at and yelling his name. Fortunately the fight went the way I wanted it to go. ... He went a minute 15 seconds longer than I thought he was going to."

Did anybody see the fight? I realized it was PPV last night, which makes it even funnier. I heard the production of the event was possibly the worst that has been around since Scott Farrell worked that Affliction card

 

[Clayton Gray]

Well, that fight was an embarassment to MMA. My only regret is having not added more when it dropped to -205. LOL @ people overreacting to weigh-in photos...as if we were really to expect those two to have looked any different. Pudzianowski had no business being on a US MMA PPV, let alone in the ring with a former UFC HW champion, regardless of how downhill his career has gone. That was free money at its finest.

Mariusz Pudzianowski:

"I knew I could possibly prolong the fight for a little bit longer, but because of my conditioning, or lack of conditioning, I decided there was really no sense to do it, point to do it. The conditioning was by far the deciding factor for me in not continuing to fight."

Tim Sylvia:

"I consider myself something of a legend in MMA and I go out there and ... I see Polish guys screaming at and yelling his name. Fortunately the fight went the way I wanted it to go. ... He went a minute 15 seconds longer than I thought he was going to."

Did anybody see the fight? I realized it was PPV last night, which makes it even funnier. I heard the production of the event was possibly the worst that has been around since Scott Farrell worked that Affliction card

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2010/5/22/14828...sz-pudzianowski

 

[modogg]

Did anybody see the fight? I realized it was PPV last night, which makes it even funnier. I heard the production of the event was possibly the worst that has been around since Scott Farrell worked that Affliction card

http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2010/5/22/14828...sz-pudzianowski

Crowd seemed into it, but this was the article i read about the broadcast: http://www.mmafighting.com/2010/05/22/moos...g-at-its-worst/

i have to say, i am always a fan of adding flames to your broadcast. Wether it be the guys names going up in flames, or the shooting flames in the EliteXC shows, it always brings the vibe we are looking for. And the EliteXC dancers were a great fit with that as well.

Moosin seemed at least alright, when compared to a lot of the other ideas that MMA organizations have brought to the table (the arm wrestling + punching with your off hand, tag team MMA, adjusted octagon so if slopes to the middle, etc.)

 

[modogg]

i see 2 upcoming odds released for Strikeforce:

Lawlor -170 vs. Babalu +140

Fedor -800 vs. Werdum +500

Man, is that number on Werdum tempting, but i think it is lost money. i will likely take Lawlor over Babalu as well. want to look at some things first for that one

 

[Sebowski]

i see 2 upcoming odds released for Strikeforce:Lawlor -170 vs. Babalu +140Fedor -800 vs. Werdum +500Man, is that number on Werdum tempting, but i think it is lost money. i will likely take Lawlor over Babalu as well. want to look at some things first for that one

I was once a big Lawlor fan. No excuse for him getting caught in that standing guillotine against Shieds though. Also was getting his ### kicked before Scott Smith'ing Manoef in his last fight. Bablu is a very good fighter. I am staying away from this fight betting wise, but will be 4 rows back of the Lodge level live for it. Excited for the live fights, but ### #### there is no other company on earth I hate dealing with but keep giving money other than Ticketmaster. I'll do anything I can to avoid giving them my money, but sometimes it is just impossible,ETA: I'd be tempted to take Fedor at -1500. Free money. This fight is a joke.

 

[modogg]

i know we brought up in pages some of the best cameo appearnaces of MMA guys in movies. Looking at Tito's appearance in one of the latest Crow's, Rampage in Midnight Meat Train, all of Keith Jardine's, but i found a nice surprise tonight watching Oz. Low and Behold, a security guard comes out to take care of an unruly prisoner, and it is Matt Lindland himself. I have no idea why i find these appearances so great, but man do i get a grin on my face when i see it. I also just caught Keith Jardine on Breaking Bad the other day as well.

 

[Abrantes]

ETA: I'd be tempted to take Fedor at -1500. Free money. This fight is a joke.

Fedor is certainly the favorite, but I don't see any way you could call the fight a joke. At his best, Werdum is as good as anyone Fedor's faced probably since prime Mirko, nearly five years ago. Werdum's path to the title shot is silly, but he's a legit opponent.

 

[modogg]

ETA: I'd be tempted to take Fedor at -1500. Free money. This fight is a joke.

Fedor is certainly the favorite, but I don't see any way you could call the fight a joke. At his best, Werdum is as good as anyone Fedor's faced probably since prime Mirko, nearly five years ago. Werdum's path to the title shot is silly, but he's a legit opponent.

i agree. I am not sure how much his stand-up is improving, but he will be pretty slick on the ground, and working with King Mo, et. al., he may have improved wrestling. I think the fact that this is a 3 round fight could also favor Werdum because he only has to avoid getting knocked out, and control the action of the fight for 2 of 3 rounds.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Anyone think Hathaway (14-0) has a chance against Diego?

Based on the competition (or lack thereof) Hathaway has faced, I'm surprised that the line is as close as it is (Diego -210). I have no reason to believe that Diego won't steamroll this guy. Also, may just be my Bisping hate shining bright, but I think I like Dan Miller at +140.

 

[hooter311]

Anyone think Hathaway (14-0) has a chance against Diego?

Based on the competition (or lack thereof) Hathaway has faced, I'm surprised that the line is as close as it is (Diego -210). I have no reason to believe that Diego won't steamroll this guy.

Also, may just be my Bisping hate shining bright, but I think I like Dan Miller at +140.

I would be careful with this one, I hate Bisping as much as anyone but his BJJ and submission defense is more than decent. I don't think Miller has a chance standing up with him. I just hate taking fights this close when the favorite has so many more paths to victory. Just my 2 cents and I'm willing to admit I'm like 2-10 betting the last 2 PPV cards.Still up a bit for the year in UFC after I placed the biggest bet of my life on Carwin/Mir.

I agree on the Diego steamrolling though.

 

[zander_s]

Anyone think Hathaway (14-0) has a chance against Diego?

Based on the competition (or lack thereof) Hathaway has faced, I'm surprised that the line is as close as it is (Diego -210). I have no reason to believe that Diego won't steamroll this guy. Also, may just be my Bisping hate shining bright, but I think I like Dan Miller at +140.

That is as good a reason as any in my book. I love betting against this punk!

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

Also, may just be my Bisping hate shining bright, but I think I like Dan Miller at +140.

I would be careful with this one, I hate Bisping as much as anyone but his BJJ and submission defense is more than decent.

yeah I hear ya. I just think people may be down on Miller -- He has back to back losses to Sonnen and Maia but neither of those 2 could finish him. I feel very confident that Bisping won't finish him -- just need to see if Miller can catch him in something. I think the line is probably pretty good where it is.

But GD, I hate Bisping.

 

[hooter311]

But GD, I hate Bisping.

I wish his fight with Silva was 20 seconds longer, Silva was going for the kill when the third round bell rang.

 

[Abrantes]

I love the Miller brothers and generally think that Bisping is overrated, though not as much these days as a year or two ago. However, as much as I love betting against Bisping, Miller is a tough sell for me here. Only way I can see him pulling out a win is on the judges' scorecards, 'cause Bisping is a slippery ******* on the ground and outguns him standing.

Still, Bisping is just so damn hateable.

 

[modogg]

Lot of new fights up, my head is spinning trying to find the angles.

While I am looking though, one impulsive bet in: Chuck Liddell +110 over Rich Franklin. Basing this soley on the latest episode of The Ultimate Fighter. Chuck is a bad dude, and he matches up well with Rich, I think. A small bet for now, but i think it is better then peeing away money.

for UFC 114, i am leaning Bisping, Diego, Rashad, and small play on maybe Russow and Cyrille.

The Dream card looks good as well, and I want to try Bellator one more time. May go Eddie Sanchez -180 over Sursa

lot to look at though, will be a busy weekend

 

[Cliff Clavin]

i know we brought up in pages some of the best cameo appearnaces of MMA guys in movies. Looking at Tito's appearance in one of the latest Crow's, Rampage in Midnight Meat Train, all of Keith Jardine's, but i found a nice surprise tonight watching Oz. Low and Behold, a security guard comes out to take care of an unruly prisoner, and it is Matt Lindland himself. I have no idea why i find these appearances so great, but man do i get a grin on my face when i see it. I also just caught Keith Jardine on Breaking Bad the other day as well.

Check out The Dog Problem. Kimo Leopoldo and Tito are both in it. Not a bad movie and a pretty funny fight scene when Tito and Kimo beat each other up (the play bodyguards in the movie).

 

[modogg]

i know we brought up in pages some of the best cameo appearnaces of MMA guys in movies. Looking at Tito's appearance in one of the latest Crow's, Rampage in Midnight Meat Train, all of Keith Jardine's, but i found a nice surprise tonight watching Oz. Low and Behold, a security guard comes out to take care of an unruly prisoner, and it is Matt Lindland himself. I have no idea why i find these appearances so great, but man do i get a grin on my face when i see it. I also just caught Keith Jardine on Breaking Bad the other day as well.

Check out The Dog Problem. Kimo Leopoldo and Tito are both in it. Not a bad movie and a pretty funny fight scene when Tito and Kimo beat each other up (the play bodyguards in the movie).

Nice. I will have to check that out. Kimo acting, good stuff

 

[modogg]

Okay, I have to look over everything i played, but here are my plays so far for UFC 114. A lot more main card fights than usual for me:

Diego Sanchez -200 - 2 units. A little high for me, but i really think Diego has this one. I am not sure why Diego bounced back up to 170 is my only concern here, but this fight really remings me of Diego's fight against Bielkheden. I am not sure why it does so much, but it seems like almost the same set-up for Diego to help him get back on track. I also think if this line moves in any direction it will be with money pouring in on Diego, so i can hedge, possibly arb out, if I look more into Hathaway and feel a need to.

Bisping -160 1.5 unit - discussed pretty well in this thread already, but i think Bisping has the tools to win this one. Combined with Dan Miller's personal issues over the last year, and the hints that Miller does not look mentally ready for this fight, i feel confident here.

Rashad - 1.25 unit - I have Rashad at a few odds, and I think money will come in on Rampage. Personally I think Rampage is talking this fight up a lot, and I am not sure how ready he actually is for it. training at Wolfslair will not prepare him for Rashad's wrestlling, which would seem to be the gameplan Rashad will take. In addition, i still think of Keith "bet on me and lose money" Jardine can take Rampage the distance and almost squeek out a win, Rashad can too. Only concern is Rashad still seems to be effected by Machida's KO, and hopefuly he has begun to get over it.



Cyrille Diabate +300 - .4 unit over Luis Cane. Luis got KO'd bad by Lil Nog, and like referenced above with Rashad, it seems that guys sometimes take longer to recover or have some lasting effect from those. I also know Cane started up his own gym (I think with Marcus Aurelio) and those variables can always distract a fighter.

I may take some others or add-on as well.

I do have a parlay in that is 4.25 - 1 odds i think: Rashad, Diego, Bisping, and Nick Diaz.

 

[modogg]

Anyone think Hathaway (14-0) has a chance against Diego? Ecudero is guaranteed money, but I hate laying 4-1. Not worth risking 100 just to win 25. What I like to do in these cases is find another sure favorite and parlay them. Diego stood out to me right away, but then I looked up Hathaway and he has some good wins. Beating Diego might be his coming out party while Diego continues to disappoint. I'm going to make the bet, I'm just not sure I want to go as big as I was going to. Anyone have a good feel for the Diego-Hathaway fight?

I wrote a little in the post i just did. I think if you are looking to parlay with someone, maybe take Bisping instead of Diego. I also think Rashad has a significant chance of winning against Rampage as well. I will have more time to look tomorrow, but Hathaway's resume is impressive (decision wins over Paul Taylor and Story seem impressive), but i have not watched the fights themselves yet. I do not know why Diego came back up to 170 and what effect that will have, but i think Diego will be ready to win this one.

 

[Widbil83]

Anyone think Hathaway (14-0) has a chance against Diego?

Based on the competition (or lack thereof) Hathaway has faced, I'm surprised that the line is as close as it is (Diego -210). I have no reason to believe that Diego won't steamroll this guy.

Lock of the card IMO. Hathaway hasn't faced anybody. Plus Sanchez is coming off the Penn lose looking to kill somebody.

 

[hooter311]

i know we brought up in pages some of the best cameo appearnaces of MMA guys in movies. Looking at Tito's appearance in one of the latest Crow's, Rampage in Midnight Meat Train, all of Keith Jardine's, but i found a nice surprise tonight watching Oz. Low and Behold, a security guard comes out to take care of an unruly prisoner, and it is Matt Lindland himself. I have no idea why i find these appearances so great, but man do i get a grin on my face when i see it. I also just caught Keith Jardine on Breaking Bad the other day as well.

Check out The Dog Problem. Kimo Leopoldo and Tito are both in it. Not a bad movie and a pretty funny fight scene when Tito and Kimo beat each other up (the play bodyguards in the movie).

Nice. I will have to check that out. Kimo acting, good stuff

That's a pretty decent flick too, compared to most others that feature UFC fighters. The only other decent one I can think of is Blood & Bone and that's just Bob Sapp and Kimbo in very small roles.

 

[Sebowski]

I can see Hathaway on his way up while Diego is on his way down. Kind of like when Diego fought Karo when Karo was still a contender. Something just smells like a trap for me with that fight and I am staying away from it.

I just jumped on Hornbuckle over Askren at -140 for the Bellator final. Hornbuckle has looked great while Ben has looked pretty green at times. Might end up putting more on Hornbuckle by the time the fights gets here.

Staying with just Rashad tomorrow night. I am very tempted to bet big on Escudero even though I hate laying those kind of odds.

 

[sheerterror]

Here's my card for tomorrow:

Rampage -110 over Rashad 2 units: I just don't get the love for Rashad here guys. I realize that Rashad is likely the more likeable personality through all the TUF coaching stuff and trash talk, but we've got to put feelings aside and consider several things.

Rampage has a better chin and much, much more punching power. In what should be a slugfest given how much these guys hate eachother, sign me up for the guy with those qualities to his advantage at nearly even money all day, every day. Now, if Rashad were smart - he'd be looking to enact a gameplan where he can duck in and out with little chippy leg kicks to weaken Rampage's base, in hopes of taking away some of his punching power and maybe scoring a takedown to steal a round or two. However, Rashad is far from a cerebral fighter - he's never been one to utilize his supposedly substantial wrestling advantage on his opponents (a la Sean Sherk vs. Frankie Edgar, Josh Koschek vs. Paulo Thiago to name a few). I know, I know, he trains with the fancy Greg Jackson/Trevor Wittman camp so he's surrounded by talent and a great coaching staff, but those guys haven't faired particularly well lately, and Rashad is seemingly uncoachable when it comes to enacting a gameplan inside the octagon to suit his strenghts anyway. Aside from his speed, Rashad's one advantage MAY be his wrestling, but even then, I 1) don't trust that he's going to try to utilize that to his advantage given his previous mental lapses in the ring - most recently against Thiago Silva and 2) don't even know if there's a truly substantial wrestling advantage here at all. Rampage isn't the easiest guy in the world to take down and has some damn good wrestling ability himself - so the thought process that Rashad is going to take Rampage down at will and grind him out is totally unwarranted IMO.

There's obviously some inherent risk in betting Rampage. How much ring rust does he have from being on the shelf so long? How much does he actually care? How hard has he actually been training? To me, it is these questions that are keeping this line where it is - that's what you're gambling on in this fight. If Rampage actually does care about this fight/his MMA career, I think he has no problem handling Evans. The two simply aren't in the same tier. I'll never question Rashad's work ethic or heart, but his lack of fight IQ as well as his actual abilities are just simply not near the same level as Rampage's. I'm banking on Rampage having taken this fight seriously because of the true disdain he seems to have for Evans, and if he comes in motivated and prepared, he's going to KO Evans.

Diego Sanchez -225 over John Hathaway 2u: Wow, are people really this down on Diego simply because he got tuned up by one of the best fighters in the world a few months ago. This guy has one of the biggest hearts and strongest work ethics in the entire UFC - I don't believe for one seconds that after one disheartening loss, he's going to just roll over and fade into obscurity. Hathaway's got a strong wrestling base so there's the risk that he can take Sanchez down and grind out a decisions, but Diego's world class with scrambles, switches and reverses - Hathaway's going to have a rough time putting him on his back and keeping him there. Diego bounces back from his loss to Penn in a big way - think Kenny Florian after his losses in title fights.

Dong Hyun Kim +110 over Amir Sadollah 1u: I've developed a rule of thumb - fade guys who can't finish Phil Baroni. In fact, Amir doesn't finish anyone unless he catches them in a sub. There's the possibility Amir could steal this fight late if/when Kim starts to fade, but I think Kim's got him outclassed in just about all aspects. Loving the plus odds.

Obligatory parlays:

Kim/Escudero 1u to win 1.5u

Nogueira/Guilard 1u to win .5u

 

[Balco]

I like Diego in this one, but am not really sure on the others.

I feel like Rampage has been a little too concerned about being Mr. T, and won't come into this fight in tip top fighting shape. But he can end the fight with one punch. Leaning towards Rashad here.

 

[AhrnCityPahnder]

The fact that all the regulars in this thread disagree Rashad vs Rampage is awesome. I'm slightly on the Rampage side at this time.

Can anyone remember a closer (between betting lines and fan perception) UFC PPV Main Event in recent history? I can't.

 

[zander_s]

The fact that all the regulars in this thread disagree Rashad vs Rampage is awesome. I'm slightly on the Rampage side at this time.

Can anyone remember a closer (between betting lines and fan perception) UFC PPV Main Event in recent history? I can't.

 

[modogg]

The fact that all the regulars in this thread disagree Rashad vs Rampage is awesome. I'm slightly on the Rampage side at this time.

Can anyone remember a closer (between betting lines and fan perception) UFC PPV Main Event in recent history? I can't.

I am honestly having a hard enough time thinking of recent PPV Main events. One does come to mind though, and that is Carwin-Mir (actually just remembered, that was a co-main event, behind GSP-Hardy so it doesn't count). Well, if it did apply, that was an interesting one because most of the "experts" thought Mir would win that one, when i know the sentiment in this thread was heavy on Carwin.

 

[modogg]

I can see Hathaway on his way up while Diego is on his way down. Kind of like when Diego fought Karo when Karo was still a contender. Something just smells like a trap for me with that fight and I am staying away from it.

I just jumped on Hornbuckle over Askren at -140 for the Bellator final. Hornbuckle has looked great while Ben has looked pretty green at times. Might end up putting more on Hornbuckle by the time the fights gets here.

Staying with just Rashad tomorrow night. I am very tempted to bet big on Escudero even though I hate laying those kind of odds.

Funny, because i was all happy with myself when i got it at -160. I would love to add more, but my account is tied up wtih all sorts of things right now, so i have to wait a few weeks to add more. I do think Honrbuckle takes this though. I am really interested to know where he ends up after this tournament. I would love the UFC/WEC sign him, because he is only getting better ever since his upsets in Japan.

 

[modogg]

Here's my card for tomorrow:Rampage -110 over Rashad 2 units: I just don't get the love for Rashad here guys. I realize that Rashad is likely the more likeable personality through all the TUF coaching stuff and trash talk, but we've got to put feelings aside and consider several things.

Alright buddy, I like the face-off here. It seems you are relying on Rashad being a knucklehead (a la 3rd round against Thiago Silva), which is a possibility. I think the only way Rampage wins this is by KO or TKO, which is possible based on Rashad's recent outings. If Thiago wasn't such a knucklehead, he probably would have beat Rashad, and I have to think Rashad has learned from this. He thought he could trade with Thiago, and got cokcy in the 3rd. Maybe I am relying too much on the idea that he learned from that, but i don't see him standing toe-to-toe with Rampage, because the power difference is obvious. But I do think Rashad is quicker and better technically then Rampage. It isn't like Rampage has crisp combinations he puts together, he has 1-punch KO power. As long as Rashad doesn't get suckered into that, he should win this fight. I think he can take Rampage down once or twice in this fight, and Rampage is not anything special once on his back. Rashad can probably keep him on his back with GNP for a good half a round. I think if it goes to decision, Rashad should win more than 65% of the time. I think the trash talk coming into this fight is all hype, and I think Rashad is simply daring Rampage into standing and trading so he can take him down in the 1st round. I see you mentioned Rashad's fight IQ a few times, but i think outside of his last 2 fights (his last fight mostly because it seems like Greg Jackson had a hand in that one) he has done well, with his fight against Chuck and his fight against Forrest. I also look at how the Jackson camp prepared for Rampage before, with Jardine putting up a good fight against Rampage. Jackson should have a winning strategy in place here so that should not be a factor. I love Diego too, and may add on to him. Kim-Saddolah has me in the air because it could go either way. You don't see any value in any of the other fights on the under card. I see some fights ending up like the Villasenor fight, but i doubt Brilz and Russow want any part of Duffee's and Lil Nog's stand up at all. Both have potential to grind out decisions by implementing a wrestling strategy. I also think Cyrille Diabate at +300 has some life to it. He loves to stand and bang, which should play into Cyrille's hands. Not over-confident Cyrille wins, but Cane has only beaten guys like Jason Lambert, Cantwell (in a decision), etc.

 

[modogg]

So Dream 14 is tonight, and the card is pretty good (always fun watching Nick Diaz and Hansen. Wonder if Kid is back at all, and I think Ralek Gracie is the only Gracie left that may survive in MMA). Not a great betting card though, anybody have any thoughts on it?

 

[hooter311]

I've been data mining everything I can find on the net for the past few weeks trying to find my angle on Rampage/Evans.

One thing of note is that Rampage showed up to camp 8 weeks ago fat, weighing in at 251. He admitted that's the highest number he had seen on the scales. Before cutting before weigh in he was reported at 221. 30 lbs in 8 weeks is a lot of weight to lose. I don't know if that is telling us that we're looking at the most focused Rampage of his career, or if this is a huge negative.

The weigh-ins were entertaining tonight. I've learned over the past year or so to not make a big bet in a close fight until watching the weigh-ins. Rashad was more reserved tonight, Rampage was howling and snarling. Bisping looked fantastic tonight, Miller looked like he hadn't even been training. I too am going to at least make a half unit play on Diabate over Cane, the odds are too good not too and Diabate has legit kickboxing while Cane is coming back from injury.

I'm going large on the main event, but I don't have a clue which way yet.

Science says Evans, religion says Rampage, that's ultimately what a fight this close comes down to.

I've always been a man on science, but Rashad always seems to take too many shots at long range setting up his takedowns and despite all his head movement I've never seen him dodge a punch. Rampage wants nothing more than to knock him out. Rampage working the jab or Evans working the leg kicks would give either of them an edge, but I just don't see them adjusting their game plans based on past performances.

I think I've over-analyzed this one to death and despite how close the odds are, I have a feeling this fight is going to be one sided for the winner.

 

[modogg]

I've been data mining everything I can find on the net for the past few weeks trying to find my angle on Rampage/Evans.One thing of note is that Rampage showed up to camp 8 weeks ago fat, weighing in at 251. He admitted that's the highest number he had seen on the scales. Before cutting before weigh in he was reported at 221. 30 lbs in 8 weeks is a lot of weight to lose. I don't know if that is telling us that we're looking at the most focused Rampage of his career, or if this is a huge negative.The weigh-ins were entertaining tonight. I've learned over the past year or so to not make a big bet in a close fight until watching the weigh-ins. Rashad was more reserved tonight, Rampage was howling and snarling. Bisping looked fantastic tonight, Miller looked like he hadn't even been training. I too am going to at least make a half unit play on Diabate over Cane, the odds are too good not too and Diabate has legit kickboxing while Cane is coming back from injury.I'm going large on the main event, but I don't have a clue which way yet. Science says Evans, religion says Rampage, that's ultimately what a fight this close comes down to.I've always been a man on science, but Rashad always seems to take too many shots at long range setting up his takedowns and despite all his head movement I've never seen him dodge a punch. Rampage wants nothing more than to knock him out. Rampage working the jab or Evans working the leg kicks would give either of them an edge, but I just don't see them adjusting their game plans based on past performances.I think I've over-analyzed this one to death and despite how close the odds are, I have a feeling this fight is going to be one sided for the winner.

Well, I think Diego is one of the safest bets on the card. I need to look a bit more, but like Ahrn noted before, there is strong thoughts on both sides of the main event and it can go either way. If i were to make a suggestion, go with Diego and some of your other plays, and wait to see how they do. If you are up nice, you can add on before the main event. I like Rashad a lot too, but Rampage's power combied with Rashad not having the strongest chin makes it a fight that is hard to load up on.That being said, I will have money on Rashad to win.

 

[hooter311]

I've been data mining everything I can find on the net for the past few weeks trying to find my angle on Rampage/Evans.One thing of note is that Rampage showed up to camp 8 weeks ago fat, weighing in at 251. He admitted that's the highest number he had seen on the scales. Before cutting before weigh in he was reported at 221. 30 lbs in 8 weeks is a lot of weight to lose. I don't know if that is telling us that we're looking at the most focused Rampage of his career, or if this is a huge negative.The weigh-ins were entertaining tonight. I've learned over the past year or so to not make a big bet in a close fight until watching the weigh-ins. Rashad was more reserved tonight, Rampage was howling and snarling. Bisping looked fantastic tonight, Miller looked like he hadn't even been training. I too am going to at least make a half unit play on Diabate over Cane, the odds are too good not too and Diabate has legit kickboxing while Cane is coming back from injury.I'm going large on the main event, but I don't have a clue which way yet. Science says Evans, religion says Rampage, that's ultimately what a fight this close comes down to.I've always been a man on science, but Rashad always seems to take too many shots at long range setting up his takedowns and despite all his head movement I've never seen him dodge a punch. Rampage wants nothing more than to knock him out. Rampage working the jab or Evans working the leg kicks would give either of them an edge, but I just don't see them adjusting their game plans based on past performances.I think I've over-analyzed this one to death and despite how close the odds are, I have a feeling this fight is going to be one sided for the winner.

Well, I think Diego is one of the safest bets on the card. I need to look a bit more, but like Ahrn noted before, there is strong thoughts on both sides of the main event and it can go either way. If i were to make a suggestion, go with Diego and some of your other plays, and wait to see how they do. If you are up nice, you can add on before the main event. I like Rashad a lot too, but Rampage's power combied with Rashad not having the strongest chin makes it a fight that is hard to load up on.That being said, I will have money on Rashad to win.

At the weigh-ins Diego looked twice as good as Hathaway as well. With netspend not being an option I probably won't even be able to get my account funded by tomorrow anyways. Major bummer. We'll see how it goes.

 

[sheerterror]

Mo, I've just never thought much of Rashad at all. His standup is sloppy and he's never been one to utilize seemingly logical gameplans well. He landed the best punch of his career on Liddell when Chuck walked right into it with his hands down, and was getting beat up by Griffin before he caught Griffin's kick and capitalized with a ground n' pound finish. I can't recall the last time I saw him throw strikes to set up takedowns and utilize his wrestling for the majority of a fight. Even if that is the gameplan he has and attempts to follow, I'm really not so sure he's going to be able to take Rampage down...Rampage is by no means a slouch in the wrestling department either. Rashad doesn't have all that much of a damaging top game so even with the possibility of a takedown or two, I see Rampage being able to get back to his feet. I think your estimation of Rashad winning 65% of the time if it goes to a decision is predicated heavily on Rashad being able to score consistent takedowns - he really hasn't given much evidence of late that this is what he will try to do. If it stays standing for a majority of the fight (how I see it) Rampage has power and chin advantage substantially in his favor. I see Rampage getting the better end of the quality strikes and scoring more points that way if he doesn't just KO him all together.

I'm going to end up on Diabate for .25u-.5u I think. It's a great number for a guy with the striking ability he has as well as the incredible length. Cane will likely look to score a quick takedown to negate this disadvantage but at +300 he's certainly worth a flier. I was considering Russow when the lines first opened (I was hoping to catch Duffee at -200ish, but obviously his record setting KO built up that hype train quite a bit) but at this price, I'll be staying off.

For Dream, I might do a little parlay of Hansen and Diaz for action's sake, but I wouldn't lay such long odds straight in Japan where I feel the possibility of fixes are completely real. Don't know much about Ralek Gracie but + odds against an old, washed up Sakuraba is tempting. Disagree about Ralek being the last Gracie with a career in MMA, I think Roger can carve himself out a pretty successful career. He's got absolutely world class grappling and his striking actually looked half decent against Randleman a few weeks ago.

ETA: re: Jackson-Jardine: I don't want to give Jackson a mulligan for that fight, but it was certainly curious how unconvincing he looked. That fight really called into question just how much motivation Rampage has/had to continue in the sport. I think this feud with Rashad has reignited Rampage's fire and he'll come in actually giving a damn about the fight, and as a result, we'll see the "real" Rampage...at least I hope so, because this fight is otherwise not close to worthy of a main event given the other fights on the main card.

 

[modogg]

Mo, I've just never thought much of Rashad at all. His standup is sloppy and he's never been one to utilize seemingly logical gameplans well. He landed the best punch of his career on Liddell when Chuck walked right into it with his hands down, and was getting beat up by Griffin before he caught Griffin's kick and capitalized with a ground n' pound finish. I can't recall the last time I saw him throw strikes to set up takedowns and utilize his wrestling for the majority of a fight. Even if that is the gameplan he has and attempts to follow, I'm really not so sure he's going to be able to take Rampage down...Rampage is by no means a slouch in the wrestling department either. Rashad doesn't have all that much of a damaging top game so even with the possibility of a takedown or two, I see Rampage being able to get back to his feet. I think your estimation of Rashad winning 65% of the time if it goes to a decision is predicated heavily on Rashad being able to score consistent takedowns - he really hasn't given much evidence of late that this is what he will try to do. If it stays standing for a majority of the fight (how I see it) Rampage has power and chin advantage substantially in his favor. I see Rampage getting the better end of the quality strikes and scoring more points that way if he doesn't just KO him all together.I'm going to end up on Diabate for .25u-.5u I think. It's a great number for a guy with the striking ability he has as well as the incredible length. Cane will likely look to score a quick takedown to negate this disadvantage but at +300 he's certainly worth a flier. I was considering Russow when the lines first opened (I was hoping to catch Duffee at -200ish, but obviously his record setting KO built up that hype train quite a bit) but at this price, I'll be staying off.For Dream, I might do a little parlay of Hansen and Diaz for action's sake, but I wouldn't lay such long odds straight in Japan where I feel the possibility of fixes are completely real. Don't know much about Ralek Gracie but + odds against an old, washed up Sakuraba is tempting. Disagree about Ralek being the last Gracie with a career in MMA, I think Roger can carve himself out a pretty successful career. He's got absolutely world class grappling and his striking actually looked half decent against Randleman a few weeks ago.ETA: re: Jackson-Jardine: I don't want to give Jackson a mulligan for that fight, but it was certainly curious how unconvincing he looked. That fight really called into question just how much motivation Rampage has/had to continue in the sport. I think this feud with Rashad has reignited Rampage's fire and he'll come in actually giving a damn about the fight, and as a result, we'll see the "real" Rampage...at least I hope so, because this fight is otherwise not close to worthy of a main event given the other fights on the main card.

you make some good points with Rampage-Rashad. Funny how you don't think much of Rashad, because that is how i feel about Rampage as of late. I think he has been going through the motions, and not as interested in fighting. Still think the whole post-Forrest debacle where he went on a "rampage" is indicative of Rampage's mental state at times. But I do agree, if Rampage were to be motivated for a fight, this may be it. I think less because of Rashad, and more for his push of the A-team, etc. I doubt the guy wants to lose this fight, then go on and promote the movie. I'll likely buy out of this fight a bit, depending on how all of the other fights go. I got Rashad at different odds, but i think the bulk i got was at +130 and maybe +110 or something. So i can easily buy out and be alright if the odds stay close to where they are. As for Ralek, i have only seen highlights of his fights, but he seems to be dedicated to MMA and actually enjoy (as opposed to some of the other Gracie;s out there). I think a Hansen-Diaz parlay is the smartest way to go and i want to jump over to betus to see if i can get that in before it closes (yuck, i just put up $40 to win $20 parlaying those 2. that was the entire balance i had left at betus). I do agree Roger looked like he at least wanted to be there, but i do not think i will be too anxious to bet on him if the lines continue to be as they were for his fight with Randleman.

 

[Voice Of Reason]

I tend to agree with sheerterror in this one, as I really like Rampage in this one.

Rampage is clearly a better boxer and has the advantage on the feet.

I also think that Rashad's wrestling is being overrated by many people. The best I can recall Rashad's wrestling looking was vs Thiago Silva and even then Thiago was able to get up several times. Even against Bisping, Rashad struggled to get the takedown. Plus Rampage has shown to be very good at defensive wrestling .

The last reason I like Rampage is cardio. Rashad's overly active style of bobbing and weaving constantly causes him to gas himself out by the 3rd round of almost all of his fights.

I am also feeling better about Dong Hyum Kim vs Amir, DHK should be able to get in close and staple Amir to the mat consistently.

 

[Clayton Gray]

Going Sanchez and Kim easily, and Rampage by a little.

Since Kim is the dog, he seems like the best bet on the board.