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Vick a 1st Round fantasy pick next year? (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter thehornet
- Start date
flc735
Footballguy
im running out of reasons as to why he shouldn't be the #1 overallhe's a top 5 qb + an rb2gates is the only other guy who gives this much of an advantage at 1 single position
Non-PPR, it is hard to make an argument that Vick is not only a first rounder but first OVERALL. He is no-brainer the #1 qb taken but his edge over other qb's his higher than the edge of any top player at another position.
Include his high floor and astronomical ceiling, how could you pass him up in the second half of round 1?
Include his high floor and astronomical ceiling, how could you pass him up in the second half of round 1?
gianmarco
Footballguy
The guy is currently the #1 overall scoring QB.
And he's missed almost 4 games. That's insane.
ETA--Even crazier is that the 2nd highest scoring QB, Rodgers, is averaging 23.2 ppg. And Vick has never scored less than that (aside from the game he was injured).
And he's missed almost 4 games. That's insane.
ETA--Even crazier is that the 2nd highest scoring QB, Rodgers, is averaging 23.2 ppg. And Vick has never scored less than that (aside from the game he was injured).
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Ken Masters
Footballguy
If he doesn't go #1 in my league next year I will be very shocked. It's almost unfair since he is basically and Running back as well as a QB. He should take up two slots in your lineup. That's how badass he is!!
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
6 points for all TD's league. Bonuses for long td's passing, rushing, receiving. He will be my first round pick no matter where I'm picking from.
Hipple Long Ware & Peete
Footballguy
I was in the pool
Footballguy
He should be the top QB in all formats because his ceiling is higher than any other QB on any given Sunday. Today is just another example of that.
Trizzler
Footballguy
In my largest money league (redraft), the two teams in the championship drafted QBs in the 1st round. I had Brees with the 4th pick, and my opponent took Manning with the 5th pick.
Needless to say, I will be aiming for a QB in the 1st round again next year in all redraft leagues. If not Vick, then I'll probably go after Rivers. The inconsistency and injury problems associated with so many first round backs makes it clear that a safe pick is the best move to make.
Vick and McCoy will both be very high targets for me personally. If the O-line problems are solved in the offseason, you have to believe that both could be first round picks.
Needless to say, I will be aiming for a QB in the 1st round again next year in all redraft leagues. If not Vick, then I'll probably go after Rivers. The inconsistency and injury problems associated with so many first round backs makes it clear that a safe pick is the best move to make.
Vick and McCoy will both be very high targets for me personally. If the O-line problems are solved in the offseason, you have to believe that both could be first round picks.
The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
Sure, as long as you can guarantee identical stats next year. If you can't, then, well... no.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Glad I picked him up week 1, or was it week 2? I dont remember. My team has been too unbeatable since then
Amused to Death
Footballguy
you're right, we should only draft the players whose stats are guaranteed. You could probably win your league with that strategy.
scrumptrulescent
Footballguy
Are you being serious here?
Chicago Hooligan
Footballguy
Oh probably a 1st round pick. Not on any of my teams though.
thehornet
Footballguy
drunk person here
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Give him a break. He drafted Forte in 09 and Gore this year probably
Trizzler
Footballguy
Gore in the 1st, Rodgers in the 2nd, Ryan Grant in the 3rd, Jermichael Finley in the 4th.
Kool-Aid Larry
Footballguy
how many will take grossman in the first?
The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
Seriously, guys, it's not that hard to understand. It's called regression to the mean.
Michael Vick is having a historically great year. Obviously if he produces next year like he's producing this year, he will be worth a first round pick. But expecting him to do so is asking for trouble. Traditionally quarterbacks do not have back-to-back career years. See, for instance:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CulpDa00.htm
As the man says, you pay a very high price for a cheery consensus.
Michael Vick is having a historically great year. Obviously if he produces next year like he's producing this year, he will be worth a first round pick. But expecting him to do so is asking for trouble. Traditionally quarterbacks do not have back-to-back career years. See, for instance:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MannPe00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00.htm
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/C/CulpDa00.htm
As the man says, you pay a very high price for a cheery consensus.
flc735
Footballguy
ok but that also means every player that plays above average will have a down year the next and every player that plays below average will breakout the year after.this formula would also says jacoby jones and anthony armstrong will be wr 1's next year
How does regression to mean apply to Vick? The thing is the passing numbers Vick is putting up are actually along the lines of the other top qb's. Regression to the mean applies when a player is vastly outplaying the competition (CJ last year, Brady or Manning in their monster years). No reason for them to regress as the passing numbers are not outlandish to start with. He is averaging 250 yards per game passing and 1.8 TD's per game (not including games missed to injury). With the weapons in Philly and their pass happy offense, these numbers are easily sustainable.
This year he is at 55 yards rushing per game and .6 TD's. So lets just say 35-50 rushing and a rushing TD every other game. Sounds very reasonable. His yards par carry are BELOW his career average, so where are those numbers going in the next 2 or 3 years?
Vick's value is that he is a top 5 fantasy passer combined with a low end RB2/flex, not that he is having some monster season that can't be duplicated.
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Neil Beaufort Zod
Footballguy
I think he's a higher injury risk than other QBs, but if you're comfortable taking a QB in the first I can't think of anyone better to take. It would be hard to pass him up.
CalBear
Footballguy
Traditionally RBs and WRs do not have back to back career years, either. Are you suggesting we take a kicker in the first?
show your workhow many rb's have missed at least 1 game due to injury this year? It's way more than 21. Sorry, but RB;s get hurt more than QB's. It's just fact. Let's end this.I'm talking about the data I provided about 21 QBs from this year, 2010, who have started at least one game and missed at least one game due to injury.
gianmarco
Footballguy
And let's not forget that Vick has always been an top fantasy performer even when he was in Atlanta. Aside from the year he was injured (only played 5 games), his rookie year (only played 8 games), and last year (he was the backup), he's had finishes of 3rd, 5th, 12th, and 12th while in Atlanta. His passing game is now significantly upgraded and he's throwing like he never used to in Atlanta. That's all it took to bump him up to where he is.
Banger
Footballguy
In all but the most insane scoring systems Vick will likely be gone mid 1st next year at the latest and will likely be the #1 in many, many leagues. Ya, I know all about value, waiting on QBs, I've done it for a decade but the scoring disparity he's given at such an important position is unprecedented. He's the #1 QB by 20 pts despite missing 4 games...his per game avg is 29.2 compared to the #2 Rivers at 19 ppg...that's a 53% advantage OVER THE 2nd BEST QB. There is no better value than that.
need2know
Footballguy
he also has better coaches and players around him. the sky is the limit with this guy. draft him if u canAnd let's not forget that Vick has always been an top fantasy performer even when he was in Atlanta. Aside from the year he was injured (only played 5 games), his rookie year (only played 8 games), and last year (he was the backup), he's had finishes of 3rd, 5th, 12th, and 12th while in Atlanta. His passing game is now significantly upgraded and he's throwing like he never used to in Atlanta. That's all it took to bump him up to where he is.
FBG Survivor championship (wk 11-16) - the team that took Vick at 1.12 is currently in 11 th place of 12 teams.FBG $25K contest - the 16 teams who scored Vick as a huge bargain can't seem to put a dent in the top 20 based on Drinen's sims.coyote5 said:
thehornet
Footballguy
im too lazy and/or dont have the time. someone did list 26 off of the top of his head (above)cvnpoka said:show your workhow many rb's have missed at least 1 game due to injury this year? It's way more than 21. Sorry, but RB;s get hurt more than QB's. It's just fact. Let's end this.I'm talking about the data I provided about 21 QBs from this year, 2010, who have started at least one game and missed at least one game due to injury.
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The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
Whoo boy...
How does regression to the mean apply to Vick? Well he's passing for about 75 YPG above his average and about 1 TD / game above his average, and he is rushing for an extra 0.5 TD / game above his average. And he's avoided injury. Sure, maybe this is the new normal (i.e. being on philly gives him an extra ~10 fantasy PPG over atlanta), but it's more likely that this is a career year that will not be replicated.
As gianmarco pointed out, while in atlanta he was on average about QB7 (if you take out his three worst years). I guess I don't see how this counters my regression to the mean hypothesis.
I'm not suggesting that Vick will be a bad fantasy performer. You could easily make a case for him as QB1 (although I think he is more likely to end up around QB3). What I'm saying is that he is unlikely to have another year anything like this, which is why it doesn't make sense to pick him (or any QB) in round 1 in normal formats.
How does regression to the mean apply to Vick? Well he's passing for about 75 YPG above his average and about 1 TD / game above his average, and he is rushing for an extra 0.5 TD / game above his average. And he's avoided injury. Sure, maybe this is the new normal (i.e. being on philly gives him an extra ~10 fantasy PPG over atlanta), but it's more likely that this is a career year that will not be replicated.
As gianmarco pointed out, while in atlanta he was on average about QB7 (if you take out his three worst years). I guess I don't see how this counters my regression to the mean hypothesis.
I'm not suggesting that Vick will be a bad fantasy performer. You could easily make a case for him as QB1 (although I think he is more likely to end up around QB3). What I'm saying is that he is unlikely to have another year anything like this, which is why it doesn't make sense to pick him (or any QB) in round 1 in normal formats.
gianmarco
Footballguy
Well, it depends. Are we talking about regression to the mean in terms of ALL QBs or are we talking about regression to HIS mean. When a player puts up numbers that are unsustainable compared to his peers, then it will almost certainly happen. The thing is, Vick's numbers, both passing and rushing when looked at separately, are sustainable. The question is whether or not he's playing so far over his average that he's due to regress to HIS mean. The confusing factor is the new team and coaching staff and the improvements he's made. So, based on this limited sample size, it's very possible that we're seeing him much closer to what his true mean is rather than expecting him to regress to Atlanta-Vick. It may or may not be applicable but no one really knows for sure. Only time will tell. Given the upside, I'm more than willing to take that chance. If you're "wrong", you still likely end up with a top 5 QB (provided he stays healthy). The upside is a significant advantage over every other player at the position. There is a very good argument for him being 1.1 in ALL leagues next year. All of them.
Going from a run orientated offense like Atlanta to a pass happy offense like Philly is worth 50 yards a game by itself. Add additional weapons and being a much more consistent passer and I think the odds of him regressing back to his Atlanta days are very slim. Rushing TD's are a function of opportunity. The more redzone/goalline situations the more rushing TD's.Andy Griffith, your biggest error is in saying that he has avoided injury this year and will regress to the mean on that front. Vick has missed 3 full games due to injury. These are his games played in the past.2002: 152003: 52004: 152005: 152006: 16So besides 2003, he has only missed 1 game or no games. So by going by your theory of "regress to the mean", the 3 games he missed this year are MORE than you could normally expect. I think the injury risk is overstated as Vick LOOKS LIKE he is getting killed with monster hits 2 or 3 times a game. But bottom line, he has done a great job of staying healthy beside one season ending injury (which also happenned to Romo, Brady, etc.)
The Man Who Met Andy Griffith
Footballguy
Calling it quits on this, as we are basically just talking past each other.
In my view, Vick in the first round is "priced to perfection" and the probability-weighted downside is greater than the upside. I also think that the arguments for why super-Manning or super-Brady or super-Culpepper were sustainable were stronger than the current arguments for why super-Vick is sustainable, and we saw how those worked out.
Since this mostly comes down to gut feeling, no sense debating further.
In my view, Vick in the first round is "priced to perfection" and the probability-weighted downside is greater than the upside. I also think that the arguments for why super-Manning or super-Brady or super-Culpepper were sustainable were stronger than the current arguments for why super-Vick is sustainable, and we saw how those worked out.
Since this mostly comes down to gut feeling, no sense debating further.
Banger
Footballguy
Comparing him to his days in Atlanta is comparing him to a different QB. He's in a better offense with better weapons with a better coach and he's a TREMENDOUSLY improved passer. Basically take those Atlanta numbers and multiply them by a factor to come up with his stats. He likely won't beat every QB by a 50% on a PPG basis like he is this year but if he stays healthy and continues to run the ball he'll be a top 3 QB (very likely #1). He can regress 40% and still be the #1 QB. Hell he wasn't healthy all year this year and he still finished 1st overall.
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Ok, that makes more sense. Your feelings on Vick amount to a "hunch" and not regression to the mean or any other type of actual analysis.
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Skeletore Eh
Footballguy
as someone mentioined previously, vick is much more of an injury risk than any other top qb. if i end up with Vick in one of my leagues, assuming kolb is still around, ill be spending a late round pick on him as my second qb.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
nice catch.still think vick is a lock as a first round ff pick unless he really bombs in the playoffs as that will over shadow what he did during the year
simsarge
Footballguy
nice catch.still think vick is a lock as a first round ff pick unless he really bombs in the playoffs as that will over shadow what he did during the year
Unless he tanks, and Minnesota came up with something that exposes what no other team has up to this point, and he tanks, I can't see any way he doesn't go in the 1st. Even in the most Shark infested leagues I don't see him making it to the turn. If the question is value, then maybe there's an argument to be had. But barring a meltdown this week or maybe next, I can't see any scenario where 12 reasonable minds would let this guy go by.
Phurfur
Footballguy
Traditionally quarterbacks do not have back-to-back career yearsvs
every player that plays above average
You poor clueless *******
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