Vince Young more accurate as a rookie than Elway and Bradshaw (1 Viewer)

[Marc Faletti]

A lot of people take issue with VY's accuracy because he barely completed 50% of his passes last year. And they're right to say that it has to get better for him to become a truly elite QB.

But just for reference, take a look at something in John Clayton's piece on JaMarcus Russell:

Bradshaw completed only 38.1 percent of his passes as a rookie in 1970. Elway hit only 47.4 percent of his throws as a Broncos rookie. Vince Young was the rookie of the year in 2006, but he completed only 51.5 percent of his passes.

Just something to keep in mind before anyone assumes he'll always be this erratic.

 

[CalBear]

A lot of people take issue with VY's accuracy because he barely completed 50% of his passes last year. And they're right to say that it has to get better for him to become a truly elite QB.

But just for reference, take a look at something in John Clayton's piece on JaMarcus Russell:

Bradshaw completed only 38.1 percent of his passes as a rookie in 1970. Elway hit only 47.4 percent of his throws as a Broncos rookie. Vince Young was the rookie of the year in 2006, but he completed only 51.5 percent of his passes.

Just something to keep in mind before anyone assumes he'll always be this erratic.

It took Elway 11 years to become reasonably accurate, and Bradshaw never did (56.9% and 51.9% career percentages, respectively).

 

[PsychoMan]

in before lhucks

 

[trader jake]

In today's NFL Elway and Bradshaw wouldn't get as many years to develop and win those titles.

Neither will Vince Young. He'll need to avoid the Mike Vick template for passing and progress if he hopes to win games that really matter like Elway and Bradshaw.

 

[msommer]

Who cares? This does not in anyway make him more likely to succeed, for some of the reasons listed above.

Do I want him to succeed - yes.

Do I believe that the jury is still out on that - yes again.

 

[Marc Faletti]

Who cares? This does not in anyway make him more likely to succeed, for some of the reasons listed above.Do I want him to succeed - yes.Do I believe that the jury is still out on that - yes again.

I've seen it said that his accuracy numbers are the primary reason people are avoiding him (outside of the potential collapse of his supporting cast). I just thought Clayton's offhand comment was a good reminder that his first year accuracy numbers weren't necessarily something to sweat.

 

[Phlash]

Yeah, Elway and Bradshaw played in a different era where defenses had way more of an advantage than offenses do now. I have no doubt that VY can improve and become an elite QB, but can he do it before its too late and the Titans give up on him?

 

[msommer]

Who cares? This does not in anyway make him more likely to succeed, for some of the reasons listed above.Do I want him to succeed - yes.Do I believe that the jury is still out on that - yes again.

I've seen it said that his accuracy numbers are the primary reason people are avoiding him (outside of the potential collapse of his supporting cast). I just thought Clayton's offhand comment was a good reminder that his first year accuracy numbers weren't necessarily something to sweat.

My reason to stay away from him in redraft at least is that he still does not have anyone to catch the ball, that the running game is suspect as of now and eventually he will likely hit the wall as most young starters do when they have shown their tricks and DCs are starting to notice tendencies and plan accordingly. In respect of the latter I think it was great that the season ended when it did, giving VY a whole off season to learn more stuff.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

I think accuracy is just a small portion of the VY fantasy equation:

Not only was he at the bottom of NFL starters in completion percentage, but also near the bottom in pass attempts/game with 23.8. That's a brutal fantasy combination. Now you must also throw in the fact that he probably has the worst group of wr's in the NFL and that running is such a huge part of his game...something that usually goes unrewarded in most fantasy leagues.

He certainly can get better, but I think he's another case of: good NFL player..iffy fantasy player.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think accuracy is just a small portion of the VY fantasy equation:Not only was he at the bottom of NFL starters in completion percentage, but also near the bottom in pass attempts/game with 23.8. That's a brutal fantasy combination. Now you must also throw in the fact that he probably has the worst group of wr's in the NFL and that running is such a huge part of his game...something that usually goes unrewarded in most fantasy leagues. He certainly can get better, but I think he's another case of: good NFL player..iffy fantasy player.

He was an excellent fantasy player last year. Are you predicting that his quality of play will actually degrade this year?

 

[Da Guru]

Bradshaw and Young were probably equal in the Wonderlic scores.

 

[Da Guru]

I think accuracy is just a small portion of the VY fantasy equation:Not only was he at the bottom of NFL starters in completion percentage, but also near the bottom in pass attempts/game with 23.8. That's a brutal fantasy combination. Now you must also throw in the fact that he probably has the worst group of wr's in the NFL and that running is such a huge part of his game...something that usually goes unrewarded in most fantasy leagues. He certainly can get better, but I think he's another case of: good NFL player..iffy fantasy player.

He was an excellent fantasy player last year. Are you predicting that his quality of play will actually degrade this year?

I just checked last years stats.Vinny Young was tied for 16th in QB scoring in my league last year. Young and JP Losman had the exact same amount of points for the season.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I think accuracy is just a small portion of the VY fantasy equation:Not only was he at the bottom of NFL starters in completion percentage, but also near the bottom in pass attempts/game with 23.8. That's a brutal fantasy combination. Now you must also throw in the fact that he probably has the worst group of wr's in the NFL and that running is such a huge part of his game...something that usually goes unrewarded in most fantasy leagues. He certainly can get better, but I think he's another case of: good NFL player..iffy fantasy player.

He was an excellent fantasy player last year. Are you predicting that his quality of play will actually degrade this year?

I just checked last years stats.Vinny Young was tied for 16th in QB scoring in my league last year. Young and JP Losman had the exact same amount of points for the season.

And Young played in 2.5 fewer games. I believe you'll find on a PPG basis, Young was top 12 in just about any scoring system.Keep in mind he wasn't even expected to be ready to play in the NFL last year, and was terrible in his first few games.

 

[Bevo]

I think accuracy is just a small portion of the VY fantasy equation:Not only was he at the bottom of NFL starters in completion percentage, but also near the bottom in pass attempts/game with 23.8. That's a brutal fantasy combination. Now you must also throw in the fact that he probably has the worst group of wr's in the NFL and that running is such a huge part of his game...something that usually goes unrewarded in most fantasy leagues. He certainly can get better, but I think he's another case of: good NFL player..iffy fantasy player.

He was an excellent fantasy player last year. Are you predicting that his quality of play will actually degrade this year?

I just checked last years stats.Vinny Young was tied for 16th in QB scoring in my league last year. Young and JP Losman had the exact same amount of points for the season.

Where did place in PPG started? Throwing in games where he played very little or not just might make things look a little different.

 

[TheBradyBunch]

I think accuracy is just a small portion of the VY fantasy equation:Not only was he at the bottom of NFL starters in completion percentage, but also near the bottom in pass attempts/game with 23.8. That's a brutal fantasy combination. Now you must also throw in the fact that he probably has the worst group of wr's in the NFL and that running is such a huge part of his game...something that usually goes unrewarded in most fantasy leagues. He certainly can get better, but I think he's another case of: good NFL player..iffy fantasy player.

He was an excellent fantasy player last year. Are you predicting that his quality of play will actually degrade this year?

Most of VY's fantasy value came in his rushing TD's (7). I see no reason to believe that the passing game will be much better and I think it's quite realistic to expect fewer rushing TD's especially since he's the franchise. Vick's first year of starting he had 8 rushing TD's. That's still his career high.

 

[David Yudkin]

Michael Vick had a 52.6% completion percentage last year and ranked as the #4 QB. Why is this such a big deal?

 

[redman]

I think accuracy is just a small portion of the VY fantasy equation:Not only was he at the bottom of NFL starters in completion percentage, but also near the bottom in pass attempts/game with 23.8. That's a brutal fantasy combination. Now you must also throw in the fact that he probably has the worst group of wr's in the NFL and that running is such a huge part of his game...something that usually goes unrewarded in most fantasy leagues. He certainly can get better, but I think he's another case of: good NFL player..iffy fantasy player.

He was an excellent fantasy player last year. Are you predicting that his quality of play will actually degrade this year?

I just checked last years stats.Vinny Young was tied for 16th in QB scoring in my league last year. Young and JP Losman had the exact same amount of points for the season.

Where did place in PPG started? Throwing in games where he played very little or not just might make things look a little different.

Young was the 3rd highest scoring QB over the last 6 weeks in my dynasty league. That would roughly coincide with the time during which most FF owners would have begun starting him given that he was a rookie and had had some poor games to begin with.

 

[Hawk]

He was a rookie who got much better as the season went on. This site has some excellent stats and charts that make it easy to see the trends on VY's stats.

http://shsdemo.stats.com/fb/playerstats.as...752&team=10

I would point out a few things I thought were interesting. One is that Vince passed for 60% or higher completion percentage in 4 of his last 6 games.

Another is that people will focus on how his passing numbers improved over the season, but what some might miss is that his running numbers also improved. One might think that he would have run less as he got more comfortable passing, but that was not the case. In fact those like myself who watched all the Titans games last year can tell you that Vince was very tentative as a runner early in the season, and he really did most of his damage running in the second half of the season when he finally got comfortable with NFL speed.

Bottom line, if you take his last 8 games as being a more likely represenation of what his numebrs might be next season than the first 8 games, his projected numbers for next year based solely on his last 8 games from last year would be about 2,900 yards passing with 55% accuracy, 14 TDs, and 12 INTs. His rushing numbers would be about 830 yards and 10TDs. That would make him a top 5 fantasy QB. Not saying he'll hit those rushing numbers, but even if he hit only 600 and 6 rushing instead of 830 and 10, he'd still be easily top 10.

Summary: Vince has a lot of upside as a fantasy performer, and his rushiing numbers will make his low side still be pretty good unless he gets hurt.

 

[nygiants56]

In today's NFL Elway and Bradshaw wouldn't get as many years to develop and win those titles.

Neither will Vince Young. He'll need to avoid the Mike Vick template for passing and progress if he hopes to win games that really matter like Elway and Bradshaw.

I'll add Kordell Stewart to that list.

 

[LHUCKS]

in before lhucks

Bradshaw is the most overrated QB in the history of the NFL.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

I think accuracy is just a small portion of the VY fantasy equation:Not only was he at the bottom of NFL starters in completion percentage, but also near the bottom in pass attempts/game with 23.8. That's a brutal fantasy combination. Now you must also throw in the fact that he probably has the worst group of wr's in the NFL and that running is such a huge part of his game...something that usually goes unrewarded in most fantasy leagues. He certainly can get better, but I think he's another case of: good NFL player..iffy fantasy player.

What leagues don't give credit to QB's for rushing stats. Haven't been in one yet. Typically they can be MORE valuable since rushing TD's count for more than passing TD's in a large number of scoring systems.

 

[Despyzer]

A small sampling of QBs who had BETTER completion percentages than VY as rookie starters :

Tony Banks

Elvis Grbac

Kyle Boller

Akili Smith

Neil O'Donell

Charlie Frye

Tim Couch

Jake Plummer

David Carr

Byron Leftwich

Jay Schroeder

Chris Chandler

Bobby Hebert

Rodney Peete

Chris Weinke

Cade McNown

Steve Walsh

Charlie Batch

Aaron Brooks

Koy Detmer

Rick Mirer

Deiter Brock

and the same as Patrick Ramsey

Obviously making any comparison based on one statistic from one season is frivolous at best, and intentionally dishonest at worst.

 

[Hawk]

Here are the stats for VY broken down by month of the season. His completion percentage climbed steadily. I agree that's not the best stat to measure by, but since this thread started with it...

Month

Split Cmp Att Yds Pct TDs Car Yds Avg TDs Rec Yds Avg TDs

SEPTEMBER 10 24 133 41.7 1 5 24 4.8 0 0 0 - 0

OCTOBER 44 90 466 48.9 3 20 99 5.0 2 0 0 - 0

NOVEMBER 60 118 724 50.8 4 28 171 6.1 2 0 0 - 0

DECEMBER 70 125 876 56.0 4 30 258 8.6 3 0 0 - 0

 

[waylander]

Here are the stats for VY broken down by month of the season. His completion percentage climbed steadily. I agree that's not the best stat to measure by, but since this thread started with it...

Month

Split Cmp Att Yds Pct TDs Car Yds Avg TDs Rec Yds Avg TDs

SEPTEMBER 10 24 133 41.7 1 5 24 4.8 0 0 0 - 0

OCTOBER 44 90 466 48.9 3 20 99 5.0 2 0 0 - 0

NOVEMBER 60 118 724 50.8 4 28 171 6.1 2 0 0 - 0

DECEMBER 70 125 876 56.0 4 30 258 8.6 3 0 0 - 0

Someone mentioned earlier that he had a low pass attempts per game average, which also steadily climbed with each month according to those stats. So his accuracy percentage didn't go up by his attempts being limited, but actually by increasing.

 

[trader jake]

Here are the stats for VY broken down by month of the season. His completion percentage climbed steadily. I agree that's not the best stat to measure by, but since this thread started with it...

Month

Split Cmp Att Yds Pct TDs Car Yds Avg TDs Rec Yds Avg TDs

SEPTEMBER 10 24 133 41.7 1 5 24 4.8 0 0 0 - 0

OCTOBER 44 90 466 48.9 3 20 99 5.0 2 0 0 - 0

NOVEMBER 60 118 724 50.8 4 28 171 6.1 2 0 0 - 0

DECEMBER 70 125 876 56.0 4 30 258 8.6 3 0 0 - 0

Those stats should be example #1 for Vince Young supporters. I do not find myself among the Pro-VY FBG's but that stat progression is almost impossible to quarrel with.

 

[Brewzers]

Here are the stats for VY broken down by month of the season. His completion percentage climbed steadily. I agree that's not the best stat to measure by, but since this thread started with it...

Month

Split Cmp Att Yds Pct TDs Car Yds Avg TDs Rec Yds Avg TDs

SEPTEMBER 10 24 133 41.7 1 5 24 4.8 0 0 0 - 0

OCTOBER 44 90 466 48.9 3 20 99 5.0 2 0 0 - 0

NOVEMBER 60 118 724 50.8 4 28 171 6.1 2 0 0 - 0

DECEMBER 70 125 876 56.0 4 30 258 8.6 3 0 0 - 0

I have posted these stats in previous threads. It's extremely consistent with Vince's HS & College passing progression. Look for his running stats to decline and his passing stats to increase. I have watched him too many years. He is an accurate passer with an unorthodox style.

 

[Marc Faletti]

A small sampling of QBs who had BETTER completion percentages than VY as rookie starters :Tony BanksElvis GrbacKyle BollerAkili SmithNeil O'DonellCharlie FryeTim CouchJake PlummerDavid CarrByron LeftwichJay SchroederChris ChandlerBobby HebertRodney PeeteChris WeinkeCade McNownSteve WalshCharlie BatchAaron BrooksKoy DetmerRick MirerDeiter Brockand the same as Patrick RamseyObviously making any comparison based on one statistic from one season is frivolous at best, and intentionally dishonest at worst.

And making my argument out to be one of comparison could be framed exactly the same way. In no way was I claiming this meant VY was the next Elway or even the next Bradshaw. I merely pointed out that those who point to his completion percentage as cause for concern may be overstating the case.

 

[EBF]

William Green had a higher rookie year YPC average than LaDainian Tomlinson.

 

[LHUCKS]

William Green had a higher rookie year YPC average than LaDainian Tomlinson.

 

[lions327]

Vince Young is a WINNER and a playmaker. He will only get better. His accuracy will get better. I honestly don't see any negatives to him, nor do I see any red flags. The accuracy thing is being blown out of proportion.

 

[SSOG]

John Elway- 6.4 yards per attempt

Terry Bradshaw- 6.5 yards per attempt (DESPITE A 38% COMP%!!!)

Vince Young- 6.2 yards per attempt.

The reason VY completed more of his passes than Elway/Bradshaw was because Elway and Bradshaw were spending a heckuvalot more time throwing deep. I mean, heck, anybody can complete passes if they're just dumpoffs. Look at David Carr last year- he had a 68% Comp%!