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Warners Value with Edge, Fitz, and Boldin (1 Viewer)

thewaterboys

Footballguy
What are the odds that they stick with Warner for their QB and how much has his value just increased. If they are smart they will draft a few OL this year to help Edge and give Warner time in the pocket.

 

Jedeye

Footballguy
This may actually be a hit to Warner's value a bit. His previous value was in that they HAD to throw. They could not run it. Im not sure, but Arizona had to be near the top in number of pass attempts per game. Anyone know this stat?

 
M

MLBrandow

Guest
This may actually be a hit to Warner's value a bit.  His previous value was in that they HAD to throw.  They could not run it.  Im not sure, but Arizona had to be near the top in number of pass attempts per game.  Anyone know this stat?
Agree with above.It certainly looks like Denny Green wants to go to the run-first philosophy this year. I'd pencil in Warner for around 17-20TDs and call it a victory.

 
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Spartans Rule

Footballguy
This may actually be a hit to Warner's value a bit. His previous value was in that they HAD to throw. They could not run it. Im not sure, but Arizona had to be near the top in number of pass attempts per game. Anyone know this stat?
Arizona threw 670 times last season, well ahead of Green Bay's 626 which was 2nd.I think 670 might even be an NFL record for pass attempts in a season.

 

sirfumblesalot

Footballguy
This may actually be a hit to Warner's value a bit. His previous value was in that they HAD to throw. They could not run it. Im not sure, but Arizona had to be near the top in number of pass attempts per game. Anyone know this stat?
Agree with above.It certainly looks like Denny Green wants to go to the run-first philosophy this year. I'd pencil in Warner for around 17-20TDs and call it a victory.
One of Edge's strengths is his ability to block defenders on passing plays. While I do think that Arizona will run in 2006 more than they did in 2005, they will still throw a good deal because of James' ability to block.I'd put Warner down for 25-28 TDs this year assuming he stays healthy. Since teams won't only have to play the pass, it will provide many big play opportunities for Boldin and Fitzgerald.

 

rabidfireweasel

Footballguy
This may actually be a hit to Warner's value a bit.  His previous value was in that they HAD to throw.  They could not run it.  Im not sure, but Arizona had to be near the top in number of pass attempts per game.  Anyone know this stat?
Agree with above.It certainly looks like Denny Green wants to go to the run-first philosophy this year. I'd pencil in Warner for around 17-20TDs and call it a victory.
Denny has rarely, if ever been a run first coach. Even when Robert Smith ran for 1500 yards, they threw it far more than they passed it. I don't see that changing. What I think is more likely the situation is that he knows that if you can't run in the red zone, it becomes very difficult to pass for TD's in the red zone. He could not run at all, and it was bogging down his offense.I think he was looking to get a verrsion of the back that Robert Smith was in his final years as a Viking. A back that doesn't need a full back, is excellent at pass protection in 3wr sets, who can catch the ball out of the backfield and will operate well in space.

I say that Warner's yards and turnovers go down, but his td's go up. We will find out.

 

CA_7

Footballguy
Fortunately for FF owners Denny Green hasn't learned that you need a solid DEF to win a Superbowl. Warner and his WRs should still put up solid FF numbers.

 
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MLBrandow

Guest
I'd put Warner down for 25-28 TDs this year assuming he stays healthy.
That's in the vicinity of top 5 material, particularly if his yardage stays similar... :unsure:
I think he's capable of the TDs, but I do think that his yardage will go down. I guess we'll have to see.
How so... when recent history would dictate the opposite? The yards are there, but not the TDs. Please explain.
 

Billy Ball Thorton

Footballguy
I'd put Warner down for 25-28 TDs this year assuming he stays healthy.
That's in the vicinity of top 5 material, particularly if his yardage stays similar... :unsure:
How is it so far fetched Warner could land in the top five for (FANTASY FOOTBALL) stats? He plays indoors now and has the best WR duo in the league.
 

Bob Magaw

Footballguy
we shouldn't assume warner's passing stats will plummet now that they can run more effectively... did edge hurt manning's stats?

a factor to take into account... by running more effectively, the cards will now have the capability to sustain more drives, hold the ball more, & get into the red zone with far more frequency...

i could EASILY see him get reduced yards but more than compensate with increase in TD passes (as was noted already above)...

its hard to see how having arrington instead of james would have gotten them in red zone as often... the ability to run & pass is intertwined... bolstering rush attack isn't NECESSARILY worse for passing stats...

plus edge will be a great safety valve... he is one of most accomplished receiving RBs in NFL after faulk & westbrook... i could see him getting 70-80 receptions, which will be a nice boost in PPR leagues for edge owners...

he is also one of the best blocking RBs among the frontline backs (maybe the best?)... this can only help buy warner more time to get it to boldin & fitzgerald downfield... if they got vernon davis in first & OG like kid from oklahoma or max jean-gilles in second, this could be a special offense...

* let me put it another way... if YOU had boldin & fitzgerald... would YOU run a three yards & cloud of dust offense, & run exclusively... :) edge will AUGMENT the passing game... not replace it... far from it...

 
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railman305

Footballguy
im thinking this has got to hurt warner, fitz, and boldins value a decent amount, that had 0 running game last year and the only option was to pass pass and pass again, ya you could argue it could open more up for boldin and fitz, but they wont be as close to the 40+ passing attemps like they were last year, maybe if they run more it can take some stress off thier below average defense, but im thinking edge can also steal a decent amount of targets as well, they signed him to a nice deal and probable will want to utilize him a bunch

 

beachbum

Footballguy
i know hutch and bentley already signed with teams... assuming the cards would address Oline, who else is out there? mawae? faine (via trade maybe)? brad hopkins? runyan is still available, right?

don't get me wrong, bidwell has probably shot his wad for the next three years with edge, alone, but ARZ could make some serious strides in the next couple of days if they wanted

 

snarfsnarf

Footballguy
Where this helps Warner the most is not necessarily with how many passing attempts per game or yards or TD's per game. It should help the most in that Edge can block better and D's will have to respect the run more, equating to less pass blitzes.

Warner who was a near lock to get hurt without Edge should have a better chance of surviving. Of course, I still wouldn't bet on it.

 

thehobbit

Footballguy
Edge brings a running game,

Thus,

More first downs

More offense on the field

More opportunities

More respect for the run game, freeing up the Pass game

More balance.

Edge will no doubt bring extra opportunities to Warner, Boldin and Fitzgerald, along with himself.

 

sirfumblesalot

Footballguy
I'd put Warner down for 25-28 TDs this year assuming he stays healthy.
That's in the vicinity of top 5 material, particularly if his yardage stays similar... :unsure:
I think he's capable of the TDs, but I do think that his yardage will go down. I guess we'll have to see.
How so... when recent history would dictate the opposite? The yards are there, but not the TDs. Please explain.
Let's look at Warner's numbers the last two seasons he played all 16 games (per ESPN.com:)1999 - 4353 yards : 41 TDs

2001 - 4830 yards : 36 TDs

When you look at some similarities between the St. Louis teams of 1999 and 2001 and the Arizona team thus far, the teams aren't too different. You have 2 top-level receivers, a great pass-catching RB, below average defenses, a for the most part pass-happy coach and Kurt Warner at QB.

Now, I'm not saying that Warner will match his totals of 1999 and 2001 by any stretch of the imagination but I do think that he is still a good QB and is capable of 25-28 TDs given the pieces around him and his ability to stay on the field for 16 games this year (which James should help him do).

 

S.K.A.

Trout Bum
I can't see how Edge will hurt Kurt's value. I've read the arguments, but at the end of the day, I think a good pass-catching running back that commands some defensive attention will help his qb more that hurt him.

 

Gopher State

Footballguy
If the Cards don't upgrade their offense line, I see only average years for both Edge and Warner. First, I don't see Warner making it the whole season without getting hurt, once he does Edge will see 8 in the box.

 

Bob Magaw

Footballguy
If the Cards don't upgrade their offense line, I see only average years for both Edge and Warner. First, I don't see Warner making it the whole season without getting hurt, once he does Edge will see 8 in the box.
another way to interpret the recent changes is warner is more likely to have good stats if he plays 16 games or something close... & he is now in a better position to do THAT with a better blocking back (edge much more adept in pass pro than shipp/arrington)... & has been pointed out repeatedly... with threat of a viable run game, defenses won't be so free to employ the everything but the kitchen sink blitzes...
 

-OZ-

Footballguy
Seems to me the biggest difference will be that instead of settling for FG's when they get close, Edge will help sustain drives and turn a fair share of those 3 point drives into 7 point drives.

And help keep Warner on the field, healthy.

 

Portis 26

Madden Freak
Let's look at Warner's numbers the last two seasons he played all 16 games (per ESPN.com:)1999 - 4353 yards : 41 TDs2001 - 4830 yards : 36 TDsWhen you look at some similarities between the St. Louis teams of 1999 and 2001 and the Arizona team thus far, the teams aren't too different. You have 2 top-level receivers, a great pass-catching RB, below average defenses, a for the most part pass-happy coach and Kurt Warner at QB.Now, I'm not saying that Warner will match his totals of 1999 and 2001 by any stretch of the imagination but I do think that he is still a good QB and is capable of 25-28 TDs given the pieces around him and his ability to stay on the field for 16 games this year (which James should help him do).
That's the thing. He's not the same QB. He's a competent QB but not a great one any more.
 

Jason Wood

Zoo York
Let's see if the Cardinals improve on that woeful line. Denny publicly campaigned this offseason that improving the O-line was priority number one...yet we still need evidence of that before we can honestly talk about whether Warner and James are set for fantasy stardom in 2006.

 

Texasmouth

Footballguy
I think the line looked worse than it really was because no one respected the RB. They stacked the line and blitzed the heck out of Warner because what could the cards do about it? Now if defenses try that, draw plays up the middle will kill them. You have to play differently with a pro bowl back in the backfield.

I still think they could use a good pass blocking tight end.

 
M

MLBrandow

Guest
I'd put Warner down for 25-28 TDs this year assuming he stays healthy.
That's in the vicinity of top 5 material, particularly if his yardage stays similar... :unsure:
I think he's capable of the TDs, but I do think that his yardage will go down. I guess we'll have to see.
How so... when recent history would dictate the opposite? The yards are there, but not the TDs. Please explain.
Let's look at Warner's numbers the last two seasons he played all 16 games (per ESPN.com:)1999 - 4353 yards : 41 TDs

2001 - 4830 yards : 36 TDs

When you look at some similarities between the St. Louis teams of 1999 and 2001 and the Arizona team thus far, the teams aren't too different. You have 2 top-level receivers, a great pass-catching RB, below average defenses, a for the most part pass-happy coach and Kurt Warner at QB.

Now, I'm not saying that Warner will match his totals of 1999 and 2001 by any stretch of the imagination but I do think that he is still a good QB and is capable of 25-28 TDs given the pieces around him and his ability to stay on the field for 16 games this year (which James should help him do).
That's an absolutely horrible comparison. He broke his throwing hand in about 8 different places over the following few years. That's why he can't hold onto the ball.
 

Disturbed01

Footballguy
This may actually be a hit to Warner's value a bit.  His previous value was in that they HAD to throw.  They could not run it.  Im not sure, but Arizona had to be near the top in number of pass attempts per game.  Anyone know this stat?
Agree with above.It certainly looks like Denny Green wants to go to the run-first philosophy this year. I'd pencil in Warner for around 17-20TDs and call it a victory.
One of Edge's strengths is his ability to block defenders on passing plays. While I do think that Arizona will run in 2006 more than they did in 2005, they will still throw a good deal because of James' ability to block.I'd put Warner down for 25-28 TDs this year assuming he stays healthy. Since teams won't only have to play the pass, it will provide many big play opportunities for Boldin and Fitzgerald.
My first thought was how Warner gets happy feet when pressured. Last year was Every down all out blitz ( Basically) and Warner suffered from that.. I wonder if given time in the pocket, due to D-line backing off respecting the run, If Warner could benefit from this??? Anyone else see this?

 

Verbal Kint

Footballguy
This may actually be a hit to Warner's value a bit. His previous value was in that they HAD to throw. They could not run it. Im not sure, but Arizona had to be near the top in number of pass attempts per game. Anyone know this stat?
Agree with above.It certainly looks like Denny Green wants to go to the run-first philosophy this year. I'd pencil in Warner for around 17-20TDs and call it a victory.
Denny has rarely, if ever been a run first coach. Even when Robert Smith ran for 1500 yards, they threw it far more than they passed it. I don't see that changing. What I think is more likely the situation is that he knows that if you can't run in the red zone, it becomes very difficult to pass for TD's in the red zone. He could not run at all, and it was bogging down his offense.I think he was looking to get a verrsion of the back that Robert Smith was in his final years as a Viking. A back that doesn't need a full back, is excellent at pass protection in 3wr sets, who can catch the ball out of the backfield and will operate well in space.

I say that Warner's yards and turnovers go down, but his td's go up. We will find out.
:confused: :D
 
we shouldn't assume warner's passing stats will plummet now that they can run more effectively... did edge hurt manning's stats?

a factor to take into account... by running more effectively, the cards will now have the capability to sustain more drives, hold the ball more, & get into the red zone with far more frequency...

i could EASILY see him get reduced yards but more than compensate with increase in TD passes (as was noted already above)...

its hard to see how having arrington instead of james would have gotten them in red zone as often... the ability to run & pass is intertwined... bolstering rush attack isn't NECESSARILY worse for passing stats...

plus edge will be a great safety valve... he is one of most accomplished receiving RBs in NFL after faulk & westbrook... i could see him getting 70-80 receptions, which will be a nice boost in PPR leagues for edge owners...

he is also one of the best blocking RBs among the frontline backs (maybe the best?)... this can only help buy warner more time to get it to boldin & fitzgerald downfield... if they got vernon davis in first & OG like kid from oklahoma or max jean-gilles in second, this could be a special offense...

* let me put it another way... if YOU had boldin & fitzgerald... would YOU run a three yards & cloud of dust offense, & run exclusively... :) edge will AUGMENT the passing game... not replace it... far from it...
Best case scenario for Warner is that he passes less and his efficiency goes up, so he can match his per game stats from 2005.Most likely scenario is that his per game stats will go down, although I expect his TD:INT ratio to improve.

Still, doesn't Arizona still need a line?

Also, where did Warner rank among QBs on a per game basis?

 

nygiants56

Footballguy
This may actually be a hit to Warner's value a bit. His previous value was in that they HAD to throw. They could not run it. Im not sure, but Arizona had to be near the top in number of pass attempts per game. Anyone know this stat?
Warner was 19th in passing attempts at 375..Favre attempted a whopping 607 passes...I disagree with your assessment about Warner's value, I actually think it will go up..while # 0f attempts might go down, his rating and completion % and probably Tds will ALL go up now with Edge there..you can expect to see Edge catch about 50-60 balls, if not MORE...

he's terrific in the open field so a 5 yard dumpoff can turn into a 22 yard TD very easily.. most passes to James will be the high percentage types since he's only 5-10 yards off the line, so INT's won't be a problem.

for Boldin and Fitz, there #'s should actually increase.Teams can't focus on them anymore with the threat of James coming out of the backfield...

 

Jedeye

Footballguy
You are correct. But I was referring to Arizona as a team. As stated above by Spartans Rule, Arizona did lead the league in number of pass attempts this past year. Warner was injured a good portion of the year.

My assumption of him taking a small hit in value was based on him playing a full season (which I know is probably unrealistic).

I believe his pass attempts will be down as they try to run more. I think this may lead to fewer yards per game. Also Edge will steal some TDs that may have come through the air. So in this sense, from a fantasy point of view, his value may drop some.

However, from a real world standpoint, his value will increase. I believe he will be more efficient, although he has always been known to throw ints. I really like this signing by Arizona. It shows a commitment to winning, and it will show in the win column also.

The best thing that could result from Edge being on the field is that Warner may stay more healthy, which is a plus for everyone.

 

Scorehoard

Footballguy
Based on this move aquiring Edge and whether Warner will be affected in a positive or negative way tell me this. In my league which is a 2 keeper league, of the top 20 scorers....12 were QB's, 6 were RB's and 2 WR's. I have Brady and Steven Jackson but do I now comtemplate keeping Warner rather than one of the other 2? Who do you keep?

I have to ask this because I personally feel Edge will open things up for him. The organization knows how important it now is to have an above average OLine. I'm banking on that happening throughout the offseason.

 

Portis 26

Madden Freak
Warner was 19th in passing attempts at 375..Favre attempted a whopping 607 passes...
But he only started a bit more than half the games. On an attempts per game basis, I would have thought Warner was first.
 

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