Was drafting a QB in the first round a mistake? (1 Viewer)

[LawFitz]

I like that the debate seems to be shifting towards safe picks in Rd 1. That has been my theory all along when it comes to taking elite QBs ahead of all but the safest RB/WR.

In my main league, (6 pts per pass TD) my league mates finally came to the same conclusion this season. Rodgers went 2, Brady 4 and Brees 5, all to teams other than mine.

It's anecdotal, but team Rodgers is now facing team Brady in our league Superbowl this week. To each his own.

 

[Stinkin Ref]

the injury factor also factors in for me....I want that first pick to be an impact player in my lineup every week....and it is just IMO that QB's have less of a chance to get hurt....

RB's who you take in the first, you are hoping get 20-30 touches each week....that's 20-30 times they are getting hit pretty good....every week...if they are healthy every week...some will make it through an entire season without missing a game, but many don't....many of them miss a few games here or there and that can really cost you during the season...

WR's....not quite as bad in my mind....but still chances of getting hurt are more then QB...

 

[fightingillini]

You had to pick the right QBs later. You're assuming that you picked Palmer or Dalton or Freeman. What about if you took Cutler....or Flacco.....or Rivers......or Vick? Or you took a QBBC and picked wrong most of the time (that can certain happen)In the 1st round this year, after the big 3 and Calvin, you had a choice between Rodgers/Brees/Brady or McFadden/Chris Johnson/Mathews/MJD/Murray. All 5 of these RBs were busts, and all had significant risks. The QB was a much safer play, and then you could stockpile RBs/WRs since you're not really looking for that backup QB.Imagine if you took Brady in Round 1, then Marshall in Round 2, and Peterson slipped to the 3rd round (which happened in a lot of leagues this year). You're likely in the title game with that trio.The point I am making is that you need to pick the right guys no matter what strategy you take. I agree that taking a QB in round 1 in a start 1 QB league is usually not the optimal strategy. But passing up a sure thing at QB for a RB that has a lot of question marks/injury risk is not a good strategy either. So If I have the choice next year of Rodgers or Richardson, of course I am taking Richardson and get my QB later. But if my choice is Rodgers vs Murray or Alfred Morris (2 backs around the 10th ranked RBs), I am taking Rodgers every time.

Every year is different but what your saying is that your comparing Murry/Morris RB10 to CJ2K/McFadden/Forte RB4/5/6 this year.AP, Foster, Rice, Martin, T-Rich, Charles, Lynch, McCoy, Forte, MJD, Ridley/CJ2K/McFadden/Spillar/Murry/Morris

Pretty much. Murray and Alfred Morris (along with Forte, Charles, McCoy, Chris Johnson, McFadden and Mathews) are part of the tier of RBs that are talented but have question marks going into 2013.The issue is when you do take a RB with a lot of question marks vs the proven stud QB. This year, that happened early since there were 3 big RBs and the next tier was riddled with question marks. It's isn't easy to overcome a 1st round bust. If you drafted McFadden or Chris Johnson or Forte in Round 1, you probably struggled all year unless you hit big in later rounds.That said, you need to hit big in later rounds to win titles in the first place, so why risk taking a RB with question marks and insure top production at the QB spot? A lot of people don't like to gamble in Round 1.Next year, I would take Peterson, Foster, Rice, Richardson, Martin, Spiller and Lynch before I consider taking a QB. If I can I want to secure a top RB in Round 1. But I won't take a RB not worthy of a 1st round selection.I like taking elite players in Round 1. I prefer it to be a RB, but IMO you have the top 7 RBs I listed, plus the elite QBs like Rodgers, Brees and Brady, and the elite WRs like Calvin and maybe Marshall and AJ Green. And add in Gronkowski and Graham at TE. That's at best 14 elite players, and I want to have one of them on my team. So if I am drafting 8th in a 12 teamer, why take a RB when it's very possible that all of these players will be off the board by the time I draft again in Round 2?

 

[CalBear]

Week 16 Super Bowl update:

Brees 446/3/0

Rodgers 342/3/0

Brady 267/2/2

Forte 12/88/1, 1/7/0

McFadden 17/33/0, 3/15/0

CJ2K 11/28/0, 2/13/0

Murray 11/40/0

VBD numbers after week 16:

Brady 78

Brees 73

Rodgers 72

CJ2K 56

Forte 52

McFadden (negative)

Murray (negative)

So the answer is, "no."

 

[cracKer]

I guess the case is closed. #1 overall pick Aaron Rodgers (along with Reggie Bush and Dez Bryant) beat my Arian Foster/Matt Ryan team for the championship

 

[x260bm]

Week 16 Super Bowl update:Brees 446/3/0Rodgers 342/3/0Brady 267/2/2Forte 12/88/1, 1/7/0McFadden 17/33/0, 3/15/0CJ2K 11/28/0, 2/13/0Murray 11/40/0VBD numbers after week 16:Brady 78Brees 73Rodgers 72CJ2K 56 Forte 52McFadden (negative)Murray (negative)So the answer is, "no."

Funny thing is, I didn't draft any of those players in the first round in my five drafts.

 

[CalBear]

Funny thing is, I didn't draft any of those players in the first round in my five drafts.

Who did you draft after Peterson/Foster/Rice/C.Johnson were off the board?

 

[SSOG]

Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Newton finished 14th, 17th, 18th, and 20th in season-ending VBD. Not as impressive as last year, certainly, but I wouldn't call any of them mistakes- all four provided solid return given their ADPs. And, as Calbear keeps pointing out, a lot of the guys who finished ahead of them (Martin, Richardson, AlfMo, Spiller, Ridley) were not being seriously considered worthy of a late first by anyone.

 

[Eminence]

Took Drew Brees in the 1st Round, it won me a Championship.

EDIT: Better than whiffing on a pick like Charles, McFadden, or Johnson. Charles wouldn't really be a whiff but if I picked him over Brees I wouldn't have won my league.

 

[asuterlowe]

Romo (my team) just beat Luck in the championship

Brady, Rodgers and Stafford owners also made playoffs

 

[Dez]

I normally don't take a QB in the 1st round but I took Tom Brady #7 overall on both my NFFC teams that finished #1 and #4 out of 1872 teams. I was fully intendeding to draft Calvin Johnson both times but both times he went 1 pick before me. I wonder how everything would have played it had I got Calvin over Brady but I am thankful it played out like it did and I got Brady.

 

[FDC]

^^ No consensus 1st round QBs is a possibility.

 

[butcher boy]

Funny reading this thread now and realizing how different this year's first round is to last year. Last year there were only 3-4 RBs I'd have considered drafting over a QB in round 1, this year I'd hardly consider it at all. The clear consensus is basically all RBs and Calvin thrown in somewhere.

 

[Ilov80s]

I took Rodgers with the first pick which was the opposite of my usual strategy and I even got RG3 late in the draft who I was able to trade for a Alfred Morris. The problem was all the other guys I drafted stunk (Fred Jackson, Matt Forte, Antonio Brown, Macklin) and my team flatlined. Now I have the first pick again and taking ADP.

 

[ghostguy123]

I can only ever see taking a qb in round one in a 2 qb league or a league where a flex can be a 2nd qb.

I mean, if you don't draft the #1 scoring qb you have basically no chance to win, and even if you do, I still think its much harder.

I mean, 50 more points from rodgers in round one over romo in round 6 or 7 or so doesn't make up for the difference between a top rb or Calvin as opposed to what you will get in round 6 or 7.

Of course you can get a little lucky and draft a 6th round breakout stud, or you can get lucky and see a huge qb run go after you take rodgers or brees real high and have all the value drop a full round.

Basically, I just cant see how going qb round 1, especially early round one, provides anything other than a disadvantage where you need more luck than normal to win the league.

 

[hotboyz]

I took Brady 1st rd #6 and Graham 2nd rd I finished 1 game away from championship. Didn't draft a RB til the 5th rd

 

[ghostguy123]

I took Brady 1st rd #6 and Graham 2nd rd I finished 1 game away from championship. Didn't draft a RB til the 5th rd

I have also in the past drafted a player in the first round who got hurt right away and did NOTHING for me all year, yet I still almost won the title.

There are examples of EVERYTHING. I would wager the majority of league champs did not draft a QB round 1 (league dependent and scoring system a huge factor here though).

 

[Anarchy99]

I took Brady 1st rd #6 and Graham 2nd rd I finished 1 game away from championship. Didn't draft a RB til the 5th rd

I have also in the past drafted a player in the first round who got hurt right away and did NOTHING for me all year, yet I still almost won the title.

There are examples of EVERYTHING. I would wager the majority of league champs did not draft a QB round 1 (league dependent and scoring system a huge factor here though).

Everything is relative. Looking at one of my main leagues, the difference between Brees and Freeman was about 150 points. That's way more than 50 points.Rodgets and Brady were both around 120 or 130 points. In many leagues, you can't just make that up by getting better scoring with the difference in RB1 or WR1 scoring.

And I doubt many people are suggesting taking a QB at one overall, more like the latter part of the first round in a 12 team league when there were 8-10 RBs picked and Megatron off the board. At t hat point, who is a better pick, someone like Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, AJ Green, Dez Bryant, or Jimmy Graham?

 

[Dez]

This year is way different than last year. I just drafted Rodgers in the 4th round of a draft last night and I reached for him considering Tom Brady went in the 10th round, RG3 an R-Wilson in the 11th round. RB's dry up too fast (21 RB's gone before my 3rd round pick last night) and QB's have fallen in every draft I have been in this year. Even in 6 pts per TD pass they are not going in the 1st round and in 4 pts per TD pass I have seen Rodgers and Brees both go in the 4th round in about half my drafts so far.

This year not only is it a mistake to take a QB in the 1st round it is also a mistake to take a QB in the 2nd round.

 

[ghostguy123]

I took Brady 1st rd #6 and Graham 2nd rd I finished 1 game away from championship. Didn't draft a RB til the 5th rd

I have also in the past drafted a player in the first round who got hurt right away and did NOTHING for me all year, yet I still almost won the title.

There are examples of EVERYTHING. I would wager the majority of league champs did not draft a QB round 1 (league dependent and scoring system a huge factor here though).

Everything is relative. Looking at one of my main leagues, the difference between Brees and Freeman was about 150 points. That's way more than 50 points.Rodgets and Brady were both around 120 or 130 points. In many leagues, you can't just make that up by getting better scoring with the difference in RB1 or WR1 scoring.

And I doubt many people are suggesting taking a QB at one overall, more like the latter part of the first round in a 12 team league when there were 8-10 RBs picked and Megatron off the board. At t hat point, who is a better pick, someone like Chris Johnson, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, AJ Green, Dez Bryant, or Jimmy Graham?

as I said, scoring system and league setup dictates whether its a good move or not.

Clearly your scoring system is different than anything I play in

 

[Wise Old Owl]

This year is way different than last year. I just drafted Rodgers in the 4th round of a draft last night and I reached for him considering Tom Brady went in the 10th round, RG3 an R-Wilson in the 11th round. RB's dry up too fast (21 RB's gone before my 3rd round pick last night) and QB's have fallen in every draft I have been in this year. Even in 6 pts per TD pass they are not going in the 1st round and in 4 pts per TD pass I have seen Rodgers and Brees both go in the 4th round in about half my drafts so far.

This year not only is it a mistake to take a QB in the 1st round it is also a mistake to take a QB in the 2nd round.

How many people are in this league? How many QB's went before Brady in the 10th?

 

[ghostguy123]

Really without league specs, its impossible to know if taking a qb high is good or not.

If any of you this gear have or plan to tske a qb round 1, please provide all the league info such as number of teams, scoring system, and lineup requirements. Otherwise, this discussion has no chance of going anywbere

 

[Dez]

This year is way different than last year. I just drafted Rodgers in the 4th round of a draft last night and I reached for him considering Tom Brady went in the 10th round, RG3 an R-Wilson in the 11th round. RB's dry up too fast (21 RB's gone before my 3rd round pick last night) and QB's have fallen in every draft I have been in this year. Even in 6 pts per TD pass they are not going in the 1st round and in 4 pts per TD pass I have seen Rodgers and Brees both go in the 4th round in about half my drafts so far.

This year not only is it a mistake to take a QB in the 1st round it is also a mistake to take a QB in the 2nd round.

How many people are in this league? How many QB's went before Brady in the 10th?

This was the draft held on Red vs Blue show last night.

12 team league - PPR - must start 8 RB-WR-TE (2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE plus 2 Flex) This is an FFWC league and everyone waits on QB's here because you have to start 8 position players.

Brady falling to 10th was crazy but there are 12 elite QB's this year in most eyes so if you take a QB in the top 7 rounds are you really wanted to take a 2nd QB in the 8th or 9th ?

So those who waited were still able to land 1 of the other 3-4 QBs no one took in 1st 7 rounds.

8 QB's went in the top 8 rounds.

 

[hotboyz]

You can draft any position u want in the first rd only thing that matters is if you get 1st rd production. In the 1st rd wou want to hit it big no matter what position you draft you may have felt like u got a steal by drafting Brees in 6th rd but if ya 1st rd pick say Arian Foster blows out a knee chances are u dont win. I think that's the biggest thing that gets overlooked when people talk about Fantasy. You need to post this note all over ya house. IN FANTASY FOOTBALL IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT POSITION THE POINTS COME FROM!!! AS LONG AS YOU GET THEM!

 

[ghostguy123]

You can draft any position u want in the first rd only thing that matters is if you get 1st rd production. In the 1st rd wou want to hit it big no matter what position you draft you may have felt like u got a steal by drafting Brees in 6th rd but if ya 1st rd pick say Arian Foster blows out a knee chances are u dont win. I think that's the biggest thing that gets overlooked when people talk about Fantasy. You need to post this note all over ya house. IN FANTASY FOOTBALL IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT POSITION THE POINTS COME FROM!!! AS LONG AS YOU GET THEM!

The biggest issue with this I have is......even if you draft a qb in round 1 and he ends up the top scoring qb, your chances to win won't be as good as if you take a rb that scores top 5 or so, or a WR thst scores top 5 or so.

Rodgers plus a WR I take in the 8th, to me, and to most doing the math, is not going to produce as many points as a top 5 rb or WR plus a qb who finishes top 10-12.

The potential difference in points between the #1 and #12 qbs are not close to the potential difference in a top 5 rb or WR and the 30th or so guy at that position that you take in the 8th or so.

All based on how things generally play out of course.

Are the top qbs a little easier to predict who will have a good year?? Sure, but the point is to play to win, instead of playing not to lose.

 

[CalBear]

You can draft any position u want in the first rd only thing that matters is if you get 1st rd production. In the 1st rd wou want to hit it big no matter what position you draft you may have felt like u got a steal by drafting Brees in 6th rd but if ya 1st rd pick say Arian Foster blows out a knee chances are u dont win. I think that's the biggest thing that gets overlooked when people talk about Fantasy. You need to post this note all over ya house. IN FANTASY FOOTBALL IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT POSITION THE POINTS COME FROM!!! AS LONG AS YOU GET THEM!

The biggest issue with this I have is......even if you draft a qb in round 1 and he ends up the top scoring qb, your chances to win won't be as good as if you take a rb that scores top 5 or so, or a WR thst scores top 5 or so.

Rodgers plus a WR I take in the 8th, to me, and to most doing the math, is not going to produce as many points as a top 5 rb or WR plus a qb who finishes top 10-12.

The potential difference in points between the #1 and #12 qbs are not close to the potential difference in a top 5 rb or WR and the 30th or so guy at that position that you take in the 8th or so.

You think?

The difference between Aaron Rodgers and the #12 QB in 2011 was 215 points. Arian Foster (the #5 RB) only scored 256 points. Only one WR scored more than 216 points.

In 2012, Drew Brees scored 95 points more than the #12 QB. Only 2 WRs (Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall) had more VBD points than that, and only marginally (102, 98). So even in a relatively low-scoring year for QBs you still were getting just as much value out of Brees as out of the top WRs.

 

[Dez]

You can draft any position u want in the first rd only thing that matters is if you get 1st rd production. In the 1st rd wou want to hit it big no matter what position you draft you may have felt like u got a steal by drafting Brees in 6th rd but if ya 1st rd pick say Arian Foster blows out a knee chances are u dont win. I think that's the biggest thing that gets overlooked when people talk about Fantasy. You need to post this note all over ya house. IN FANTASY FOOTBALL IT DOES NOT MATTER WHAT POSITION THE POINTS COME FROM!!! AS LONG AS YOU GET THEM!

The biggest issue with this I have is......even if you draft a qb in round 1 and he ends up the top scoring qb, your chances to win won't be as good as if you take a rb that scores top 5 or so, or a WR thst scores top 5 or so.

Rodgers plus a WR I take in the 8th, to me, and to most doing the math, is not going to produce as many points as a top 5 rb or WR plus a qb who finishes top 10-12.

The potential difference in points between the #1 and #12 qbs are not close to the potential difference in a top 5 rb or WR and the 30th or so guy at that position that you take in the 8th or so.

You think?

The difference between Aaron Rodgers and the #12 QB in 2011 was 215 points. Arian Foster (the #5 RB) only scored 256 points. Only one WR scored more than 216 points.

In 2012, Drew Brees scored 95 points more than the #12 QB. Only 2 WRs (Calvin Johnson and Brandon Marshall) had more VBD points than that, and only marginally (102, 98). So even in a relatively low-scoring year for QBs you still were getting just as much value out of Brees as out of the top WRs.

You are talking no PPR....PPR makes a big difference...Calvin 348 pts in PPR, Foster over 300 pts last year in PPR...This thread should have been titles "in non PPR"...in PPR it is a big mistake to take a QB in the 1st round....I would say in 2nd round as well....I am in a 6 PTS per TD passing league slow draft at the moment I took Brees in mid 2nd round....that is not looking so good at the moment as my 5th round pick is approaching Newton, Brady and Ryan are still on board.

So it isn't about comparing those guys to the 12th QB I mean if you can get a Brady or Newton or Ryan in the 5th round now you are comparing Brees + crappy RB vs good RB + Newton/Ryan/Brady.

That is how people should be looking at it forget everything else...it is all about what RB/WR/TE you sacrifice to make a stud QB a 1st/2nd/3rd whatever round pick plus the lesser RB/WR/TE you get later where you could have got a different QB a 3rd-12th QB.

 

[ghostguy123]

Again, for the 3rd time now, if you think taking a qb round one is good state the scoring system and other league specs. Otherwise, .....ugh, nevermind.

 

[hotboyz]

I prob won't be taking 1 this yr unless Brees or Rogers fall to me at 10. The biggest thing about taking Qb in the first rd there is less probability of your #1 pick being a bust! Qb is the safer pick again you want a sure thing out of ya first rd pick

 

[ghostguy123]

I prob won't be taking 1 this yr unless Brees or Rogers fall to me at 10. The biggest thing about taking Qb in the first rd there is less probability of your #1 pick being a bust! Qb is the safer pick again you want a sure thing out of ya first rd pick

Playing "not to lose". The guy who nabs a top 5 RB in the 1st and a top 10 QB later on in the 7th or 8th has a distinct advantage on you. And that will likely be 3-4 that get that advantage.

heck, even a QB in rounds 3 or 4 depending on who drops a bit

RIce at 12 and Matt Ryan at 48??

or ROdgers at 12 and............................Mendenhall at 48?? Mathews??? One of the rookies??

Of course this assumes 12 team PPR, where QBs get 4 points per TD pass.

edit................and dont get me wrong. I am not saying it KILLS your chances to win or anything. But based on the simple numbers, it definitely does LESSEN your chances of winning by a bit.

As I stated before, I wonder the percentage of league winners who drafted a QB in the 1st round in 12 team PPR leagues. The percentage can NOT be that high.

Later on when I am bored at work I will throw out a few of the numbers I was looking at before. When doing this you HAVE to loo at it as the added points of two players, not just what the QB gives you.

Just because you take a QB in round 1, and he is the highest scoring player in that league, does not at all mean it is an advantage for you.

 

[Dez]

I normally don't take a QB in the 1st round but I took Tom Brady #7 overall on both my NFFC teams that finished #1 and #4 out of 1872 teams. I was fully intendeding to draft Calvin Johnson both times but both times he went 1 pick before me. I wonder how everything would have played it had I got Calvin over Brady but I am thankful it played out like it did and I got Brady.

Last year it worked out great for me but this is a new year. QB value has changed big time. Last year I survived taking Brady at #7 overall to win the big one but if I had grabbed Peterson at 7 last year and took a guy like RG3 later on I would have probably won the league a lot easier.

 

[ghostguy123]

I think we need to talk 2013-specifics here as people are using generalized examples to back-fill their opinions. First off, Rodgers' current ADP is middle of the second. Let's just say you're willing to grab him a bit early and take him at 11 or 12. Are you sacrificing a top 5 RB to get him like some are suggesting? Lynch, Forte, and Morris should be there, but are they a lock to be a top 5 RB? How about WR? Dez, Marshall, and Julio are there and probably have a much better chance of being top-5 at their position than the RBs mentioned. The problem here is the same argument against taking a QB early can also be used against WRs. Plus, since it's the turn, you can take Rodgers and one of the aforementioned guys...or Graham.

My main point here isn't for or against taking a QB in the first round, but that the conversation needs to be about taking a QB at the end of the first round or early second. This is different than it was last year when Rodgers/Brees/Brady were going in the top 7.

And my stance is, your chances of winning the league are LESS if you take a QB in round 1, even if its pick 12, even if its pick 13. I dont like taking one even in round 2 really.

Unlike years past, the 12th QB this year will score much closer to the #1 QB to make it worth it to wait on Qb.

As I said before, in a redraft, do you want Rodgers and vereen??? Or Dez and Romo? Julio and Romo, or Ryan, or RG3, or Luck or one of those guys.

And, as I said 10 times now, scoring system matters a lot here. So does league size

 

[CalBear]

I prob won't be taking 1 this yr unless Brees or Rogers fall to me at 10. The biggest thing about taking Qb in the first rd there is less probability of your #1 pick being a bust! Qb is the safer pick again you want a sure thing out of ya first rd pick

Playing "not to lose". The guy who nabs a top 5 RB in the 1st and a top 10 QB later on in the 7th or 8th has a distinct advantage on you. And that will likely be 3-4 that get that advantage.

heck, even a QB in rounds 3 or 4 depending on who drops a bit

RIce at 12 and Matt Ryan at 48??

or ROdgers at 12 and............................Mendenhall at 48?? Mathews??? One of the rookies??

Of course this assumes 12 team PPR, where QBs get 4 points per TD pass.

edit................and dont get me wrong. I am not saying it KILLS your chances to win or anything. But based on the simple numbers, it definitely does LESSEN your chances of winning by a bit.

What numbers have you provided to prove your point?

 

[ghostguy123]

What numbers have you provided to prove your point?

I mentioned in another post I will provide numbers later when I have time............................just got to work. Patience.

 

[Anarchy99]

I think we need to talk 2013-specifics here as people are using generalized examples to back-fill their opinions. First off, Rodgers' current ADP is middle of the second. Let's just say you're willing to grab him a bit early and take him at 11 or 12. Are you sacrificing a top 5 RB to get him like some are suggesting? Lynch, Forte, and Morris should be there, but are they a lock to be a top 5 RB? How about WR? Dez, Marshall, and Julio are there and probably have a much better chance of being top-5 at their position than the RBs mentioned. The problem here is the same argument against taking a QB early can also be used against WRs. Plus, since it's the turn, you can take Rodgers and one of the aforementioned guys...or Graham.

My main point here isn't for or against taking a QB in the first round, but that the conversation needs to be about taking a QB at the end of the first round or early second. This is different than it was last year when Rodgers/Brees/Brady were going in the top 7.

Unlike years past, the 12th QB this year will score much closer to the #1 QB to make it worth it to wait on Qb.

This gets brought up EVERY YEAR. EVERY PRESEASON features the best group of 12 QBs to ever play fantasy. And EVERY YEAR at the end of the season the statement is wrong. It's especially been proven to be an urban legend in the recent two hand touch rules for QB and the explosion of passing numbers from top passing teams.

For some reason, the examples that anti-QB drafters always want to make is by taking a QB early, OBVIOUSLY that team will have to start the #50 RB instead. And OF COURSE, the later round QB turns out to be the ONE that has a great season. And OF COURSE the RB that was taken puts up 2000 yds and double digit TD.

But notice that the later round QB is never Kevin Kolb or Philip Rivers or Jay Cutler. And the first round RB never gets hurt, so it's never Ryan Mathews or Darren McFadden. And the later round RB taken is never CJ Spiller or Alfred Morris or Stevan Ridley.

And of course, the entire roster of the team taking the QB is filled with losers . . . as if somehow that ONE PICK impacts the other 17 -19 players on the roster.

Well guess what. Either you draft the rest of the team well or you don't. And if you draft a crappy team, whether you took an early round RB or QB won't matter. And if you draft a GREAT team, the early round RB or QB won't matter. And if you end up with a team full of injuries, then the early QB or RB also won't matter.

And in most leagues, Tony Romo does not score the same as Brees or Rodgers. But if people want to believe that, more power to them, I suppose.

 

[ghostguy123]

I think we need to talk 2013-specifics here as people are using generalized examples to back-fill their opinions. First off, Rodgers' current ADP is middle of the second. Let's just say you're willing to grab him a bit early and take him at 11 or 12. Are you sacrificing a top 5 RB to get him like some are suggesting? Lynch, Forte, and Morris should be there, but are they a lock to be a top 5 RB? How about WR? Dez, Marshall, and Julio are there and probably have a much better chance of being top-5 at their position than the RBs mentioned. The problem here is the same argument against taking a QB early can also be used against WRs. Plus, since it's the turn, you can take Rodgers and one of the aforementioned guys...or Graham.

My main point here isn't for or against taking a QB in the first round, but that the conversation needs to be about taking a QB at the end of the first round or early second. This is different than it was last year when Rodgers/Brees/Brady were going in the top 7.

Unlike years past, the 12th QB this year will score much closer to the #1 QB to make it worth it to wait on Qb.

This gets brought up EVERY YEAR. EVERY PRESEASON features the best group of 12 QBs to ever play fantasy. And EVERY YEAR at the end of the season the statement is wrong. It's especially been proven to be an urban legend in the recent two hand touch rules for QB and the explosion of passing numbers from top passing teams.

For some reason, the examples that anti-QB drafters always want to make is by taking a QB early, OBVIOUSLY that team will have to start the #50 RB instead. And OF COURSE, the later round QB turns out to be the ONE that has a great season. And OF COURSE the RB that was taken puts up 2000 yds and double digit TD.

But notice that the later round QB is never Kevin Kolb or Philip Rivers or Jay Cutler. And the first round RB never gets hurt, so it's never Ryan Mathews or Darren McFadden. And the later round RB taken is never CJ Spiller or Alfred Morris or Stevan Ridley.

And of course, the entire roster of the team taking the QB is filled with losers . . . as if somehow that ONE PICK impacts the other 17 -19 players on the roster.

Well guess what. Either you draft the rest of the team well or you don't. And if you draft a crappy team, whether you took an early round RB or QB won't matter. And if you draft a GREAT team, the early round RB or QB won't matter. And if you end up with a team full of injuries, then the early QB or RB also won't matter.

And in most leagues, Tony Romo does not score the same as Brees or Rodgers. But if people want to believe that, more power to them, I suppose.

and again, dont use QB 12 ONLY for this discussion. You can easily take the 7th or 8th QB off he board much later than teh 1st round also. Those are teh numbers I prefer to look at, because that is what strategy I would use

And who in the hell said Romo scores the same as Brees???

 

[Dez]

Well everyone should clearly be taking a QB in the 1st round. :IBTL:

 

[hotboyz]

Draft whatever u want just be flexible

 

[cobalt_27]

2 RB start leagues are dumb. Drafting a QB in the first should be a no-brainer for a lot of teams if your league is set up correctly.

 

[ghostguy123]

2 RB start leagues are dumb. Drafting a QB in the first should be a no-brainer for a lot of teams if your league is set up correctly.

lol

 

[Ilov80s]

The real key isn't which position you draft, but whom you draft. If you took Brees in the first last year and got guys like Morris, Vincent Jackson and Ridley in later rounds, you likely dominated. If you took Brees with Fitzgerald, Fred Jackson and Dwayne Bowe, you likely struggled.

 

[ghostguy123]

The real key isn't which position you draft, but whom you draft. If you took Brees in the first last year and got guys like Morris, Vincent Jackson and Ridley in later rounds, you likely dominated. If you took Brees with Fitzgerald, Fred Jackson and Dwayne Bowe, you likely struggled.

Or if you drafted Richardson or SPiller at the end of the 1st, and took a Matt Ryan, Romo, or someone similar in like round 6, you likely did very well also.

If you took Mccoy and ELi Manning, you likely sucked.

I firmly believe your CHANCES of winning the league are better by taking a top RB or WR round 1 over a QB round 1, and nabbing a tier 2 QB in the 6th or 7th, than if you tak ea QB round 1 and take a round 6 or 7 RB or WR.

I think it's a pretty safe bet to nab a QB in round 6 or so that will score maybe 50 or so points less than ROdgers or Brees, much safer than taking a RB or WR (especially RB) in round 6 that will score withing 50 of a top 5 guy

 

[Ilov80s]

The real key isn't which position you draft, but whom you draft. If you took Brees in the first last year and got guys like Morris, Vincent Jackson and Ridley in later rounds, you likely dominated. If you took Brees with Fitzgerald, Fred Jackson and Dwayne Bowe, you likely struggled.

Or if you drafted Richardson or SPiller at the end of the 1st, and took a Matt Ryan, Romo, or someone similar in like round 6, you likely did very well also.

If you took Mccoy and ELi Manning, you likely sucked.

I firmly believe your CHANCES of winning the league are better by taking a top RB or WR round 1 over a QB round 1, and nabbing a tier 2 QB in the 6th or 7th, than if you tak ea QB round 1 and take a round 6 or 7 RB or WR.

I think it's a pretty safe bet to nab a QB in round 6 or so that will score maybe 50 or so points less than ROdgers or Brees, much safer than taking a RB or WR (especially RB) in round 6 that will score withing 50 of a top 5 guy

In retrospect, they key to winning last year was taking Peterson anywhere between late 2nd and the 3rd. Whether you paired him with Foster or Brees or Calvin, it doesn't matter. What matters is you found the studs. Getting elite performers (not easy to predict) is more important than ADP or position. I do agree that we are in a QB heavy draft and a RB dry draft. Getting RBs early seems important, but like always, it is about finding the right RBs.

 

[ghostguy123]

The real key isn't which position you draft, but whom you draft. If you took Brees in the first last year and got guys like Morris, Vincent Jackson and Ridley in later rounds, you likely dominated. If you took Brees with Fitzgerald, Fred Jackson and Dwayne Bowe, you likely struggled.

Or if you drafted Richardson or SPiller at the end of the 1st, and took a Matt Ryan, Romo, or someone similar in like round 6, you likely did very well also.

If you took Mccoy and ELi Manning, you likely sucked.

I firmly believe your CHANCES of winning the league are better by taking a top RB or WR round 1 over a QB round 1, and nabbing a tier 2 QB in the 6th or 7th, than if you tak ea QB round 1 and take a round 6 or 7 RB or WR.

I think it's a pretty safe bet to nab a QB in round 6 or so that will score maybe 50 or so points less than ROdgers or Brees, much safer than taking a RB or WR (especially RB) in round 6 that will score withing 50 of a top 5 guy

In retrospect, they key to winning last year was taking Peterson anywhere between late 2nd and the 3rd. Whether you paired him with Foster or Brees or Calvin, it doesn't matter. What matters is you found the studs. Getting elite performers (not easy to predict) is more important than ADP or position. I do agree that we are in a QB heavy draft and a RB dry draft. Getting RBs early seems important, but like always, it is about finding the right RBs.

Absolutely agree, and its all about playing the percentages. Which route gives you the best chance to do that. I say the odds are worse taking a QB in round 1.

And again, this is based on 12 team PPR

 

[CalBear]

The real key isn't which position you draft, but whom you draft. If you took Brees in the first last year and got guys like Morris, Vincent Jackson and Ridley in later rounds, you likely dominated. If you took Brees with Fitzgerald, Fred Jackson and Dwayne Bowe, you likely struggled.

Or if you drafted Richardson or SPiller at the end of the 1st, and took a Matt Ryan, Romo, or someone similar in like round 6, you likely did very well also.

If you took Mccoy and ELi Manning, you likely sucked.

I firmly believe your CHANCES of winning the league are better by taking a top RB or WR round 1 over a QB round 1, and nabbing a tier 2 QB in the 6th or 7th, than if you tak ea QB round 1 and take a round 6 or 7 RB or WR.

I think it's a pretty safe bet to nab a QB in round 6 or so that will score maybe 50 or so points less than ROdgers or Brees, much safer than taking a RB or WR (especially RB) in round 6 that will score withing 50 of a top 5 guy

You keep asserting this with no evidence. If you don't intend to provide any, you're not furthering the conversation by asserting it again.

Among other issues, there are no top RBs available at the end of the first round, and probably not any top WRs. (By FBG projections, there is only one "top WR" this year; Megatron is projected to score 31 points more than the #2 WR). We're not talking about Adrian Peterson, we're talking about CJ Spiller or Alfred Morris, and we're not talking about Calvin Johnson, we're talking about Dez Bryant or Julio Jones.

And you keep talking about taking a "round 6 or 7 RB". There are four rounds between 1 and 6. Rodgers/Morris/R.White/L.Miller is a stronger start than Morris/J.Jones/R.White/L.Miller. The RB you're picking in the sixth or seventh round will be on your bench, and you're more likely to get a good bye week filler in round 6 or 7 than to get a good starting QB in round 6 or 7.

 

[Ilov80s]

The real key isn't which position you draft, but whom you draft. If you took Brees in the first last year and got guys like Morris, Vincent Jackson and Ridley in later rounds, you likely dominated. If you took Brees with Fitzgerald, Fred Jackson and Dwayne Bowe, you likely struggled.

Or if you drafted Richardson or SPiller at the end of the 1st, and took a Matt Ryan, Romo, or someone similar in like round 6, you likely did very well also.

If you took Mccoy and ELi Manning, you likely sucked.

I firmly believe your CHANCES of winning the league are better by taking a top RB or WR round 1 over a QB round 1, and nabbing a tier 2 QB in the 6th or 7th, than if you tak ea QB round 1 and take a round 6 or 7 RB or WR.

I think it's a pretty safe bet to nab a QB in round 6 or so that will score maybe 50 or so points less than ROdgers or Brees, much safer than taking a RB or WR (especially RB) in round 6 that will score withing 50 of a top 5 guy

In retrospect, they key to winning last year was taking Peterson anywhere between late 2nd and the 3rd. Whether you paired him with Foster or Brees or Calvin, it doesn't matter. What matters is you found the studs. Getting elite performers (not easy to predict) is more important than ADP or position. I do agree that we are in a QB heavy draft and a RB dry draft. Getting RBs early seems important, but like always, it is about finding the right RBs.

Absolutely agree, and its all about playing the percentages. Which route gives you the best chance to do that. I say the odds are worse taking a QB in round 1.

And again, this is based on 12 team PPR

This year, I totally agree as there are so many QBs that seem capable of being top 6 while RB does seem thin. Still, I will take a QB I love before I just draft a RB because he is a RB.

 

[ghostguy123]

You keep asserting this with no evidence. If you don't intend to provide any, you're not furthering the conversation by asserting it again.

Among other issues, there are no top RBs available at the end of the first round, and probably not any top WRs. (By FBG projections, there is only one "top WR" this year; Megatron is projected to score 31 points more than the #2 WR). We're not talking about Adrian Peterson, we're talking about CJ Spiller or Alfred Morris, and we're not talking about Calvin Johnson, we're talking about Dez Bryant or Julio Jones.

And you keep talking about taking a "round 6 or 7 RB". There are four rounds between 1 and 6. Rodgers/Morris/R.White/L.Miller is a stronger start than Morris/J.Jones/R.White/L.Miller. The RB you're picking in the sixth or seventh round will be on your bench, and you're more likely to get a good bye week filler in round 6 or 7 than to get a good starting QB in round 6 or 7.

And I keep asking people, who won the leagues you were in last year, and who did they take in the 1st round.

So you are saying a bench RB filler is better than a guy like Stafford, Ryan, or ROmo?? All these guys scored within 50 of ROdgers last year, while guys like Richardson and Martin, plus a couple other end of round 1 RBs, scored a lot more than 50 than whatever RBs you took in round 6 or 7.

And stop being so impatients with me providing you with some numbers. You havent proved any, either. Relax

 

[ghostguy123]

This year, I totally agree as there are so many QBs that seem capable of being top 6 while RB does seem thin. Still, I will take a QB I love before I just draft a RB because he is a RB.

I agree witht at also, but I also think the RBs and WRs at the end of the 1st round are not "just a RB or WR". Julio, Green, Rice, Mccoy, Forte...............these guys arent just average Joes.

And guys like Stafford, ROmo, Ryan, RG3, Wilson, Kapernick arent just average Joe QBs either, and you can get them much later.

It's the simple question, what scores more.....................

1- a top 5 RB or top 5 WR...............plus a QB who finishes up around 8th

or

2- a top 2-3 QB and the averge RB or WR that is generally available in the 6th or 7th round.

I go option 1

 

[Ilov80s]

This year, I totally agree as there are so many QBs that seem capable of being top 6 while RB does seem thin. Still, I will take a QB I love before I just draft a RB because he is a RB.

I agree witht at also, but I also think the RBs and WRs at the end of the 1st round are not "just a RB or WR". Julio, Green, Rice, Mccoy, Forte...............these guys arent just average Joes.

And guys like Stafford, ROmo, Ryan, RG3, Wilson, Kapernick arent just average Joe QBs either, and you can get them much later.

It's the simple question, what scores more.....................

1- a top 5 RB or top 5 WR...............plus a QB who finishes up around 8th

or

2- a top 2-3 QB and the averge RB or WR that is generally available in the 6th or 7th round.

I go option 1

Likely the way it actually shapes out though is that some of the players you mentioned will be average. That happens every year as FF is not a perfect science. The real reason RB is more important than QB is that you need to start twice as many.

 

[ghostguy123]

Likely the way it actually shapes out though is that some of the players you mentioned will be average. That happens every year as FF is not a perfect science. The real reason RB is more important than QB is that you need to start twice as many.

Yes, that is a pretty important thing.

Here are a few simple numbers just using last year. It's hard to use specific players since you never know who exactly will do what, but like I said, I play the percentages, and I think taking a QB in round 1 (even if it is the #1 scoring QB) gives you a less chance to win than taking a RB who finishes top 6-7 or a WR in the top 3-4.

From 2012

The #1 QB (Brees, though some took rodgers who scored 15 less points) scored 418. The #9 or #10 QBs scored right at 350. So our gap here is 68 points between the #1 and #10 QBs.

ROmo, Luck, and Stafford finished 8-9-10 last year, and I would imagine they will be drafted pretty close to the 8th, 9th, and 10th QBs off the board in redrafts this year as well (maybe not exact but close enough for the purposes of this discussion).

What round do we think the 8th, 9th, and 10th QBs will be drafted this year? I see nothing different this year to think the 9th and 10th Qbs wont score withing 75 of the top QB again.

So let's say ROmo, Luck, and Stafford. Can you get one of them in the 7th round?? yes, and probably even later than that. And this year there are 12 QBs who have top 5 potential, so you can wait a lot later I would say, like round 9 or 10 before someone grabs a 2nd QB. WIlson and Kepernick finished outside of the top 10 last year, and I can easily see them make a top 10 push.

So which RBs and WRs do I take in round 1 over a QB, and do I think these guys will score 75 more than the RB or WR I will take in like the 8th or 9th rounds?? I say yes

Peterson

Martin

Foster

Rice

Lynch

Spiller

Morris

Richardson

Charles

Mccoy

Forte

Calvin

Julio

Green

Thomas

Graham (if it's the FFPC scoring of 1.5 PPR for TE)

There is 15 guys alone. I may not take ALL of them before Rodgers or Brees, and there may actually be a couple guys I didnt mention that I would take over Rodgers or Brees.

I think easily at least 12 of these guys provide a higher percentage change to score 75 above a guy you would get in round 9 at their position, than a QB you take in round 1 scoring over 75 more than the QB you nab that finishes 10th in scoring.