Wayne. Better or worse without Harrison? (1 Viewer)

[JetMaxx]

This has been buggin me for a while and I seem to go back and forth with this. Without question Wayne is talented and has a great QB throwing to him. However, he clearly benefits from Harrison's presence.

One line of thinking is that he would be better if Harrison would be removed. He would get the majority of the looks from Manning which is $$.

The other side is that he would decline if Harrison was not there drawing attention. The defense could concentrate on Wayne thereby limiting his chances.

 

[Mooks77]

No doubt about it he would be worse without Harrison. Harrison draws the #1 CB so Wayne has easy pickings with the #2.

 

[TheAristocrat]

I think he hauls in his fair share of yards and touchdown without Harrison.

But I think he is far more explosive versus the defenses he sees with Harrison.

Estimated 20% cut in production across yards and TDs without him. Roughly.

 

[Dought Man]

Marvin Harrison = Michael Jordan

Reggie Wayne = Scottie Pippen

No, Harrison is not as good as Jordan was in his sport, but you see where I'm going with this.

Wayne is a fine player, but I think he benefits greatly from playing alongside the great one. He never sees the #1 CB on the opposing team.

 

[cstu]

People won't realize how good Harrison actually is until he retires.

 

[Anthony Borbely]

Marvin Harrison = Michael JordanReggie Wayne = Scottie PippenNo, Harrison is not as good as Jordan was in his sport, but you see where I'm going with this.Wayne is a fine player, but I think he benefits greatly from playing alongside the great one. He never sees the #1 CB on the opposing team.

Great analogy.

 

[To commish is my wish]

People won't realize how good Harrison actually is until he retires.

He's considered a Top 3 WR (at worst) at age 34. That's a huge realization of how great he is, IMO.

 

[Koya]

Harrison = One of the best Wide Receivers IN THE HISTORY OF THE GAME.

As I think about it, he is also BEST WR OF HIS GENERATION (who is better?). Before Harrison there was Rice, the greatest ever without question. But since Rice's peak, Harrison has by FAR been the best, most consistent force at WR, and if not for Manning and LT2 perhaps in football.

When you lose THAT talent, I can't expect anything but numbers to go down all around. Now, Manning MAY be good enough to soften that or maybe even prevent it, but you can't count on that at this point.

 

[DoubleG]

I think when Harrison retires, Wayne's stats suffer the most. He will then draw the #1 DB. Anthony Gonzalez (assuming for now that it's him) will draw the #2s that Wayne has been getting if he does take over as the #2.

Honestly, I don't see Manning's #s slipping all that much - they'll just be more spread around than usual.

 

[Raider Nation]

If you had to lean one way or the other, which would it be?

A) Harrison and Wayne make Manning a great QB.

B) Manning makes Harrison and Wayne great receivers.

 

[DoubleG]

If you had to lean one way or the other, which would it be?

A) Harrison and Wayne make Manning a great QB.

B) Manning makes Harrison and Wayne great receivers.

B. And it's not really that close.Don't get me wrong - Harrison is a warrior.

Take this past Thursday. You take Manning and Brees and have them switch sides (with the necessary preparation, of course) - Manning in a Saints uni with those weapons = Saints win.

 

[Koya]

If you had to lean one way or the other, which would it be?

A) Harrison and Wayne make Manning a great QB.

B) Manning makes Harrison and Wayne great receivers.

If I HAD to, Id go B. But it really is not a fair question imo. The fact is, a GREAT QB can make good receivers great. A GREAT WR with an awful QB can only be so good.Manning is on his way to become perhaps the single greatest player at the single most important position, ever.

Harrison will be amongst the best ever at his position.

The possible BEST EVER at QB just wins out.

Furthermore, Manning's throws are beautiful. They are so often RIGHT on the spot, and Manning will call the play to get a guy open. Im not sure we even give Manning his due, to be honest. Probably because of all his damn commericials.

 

[Phlash]

If you had to lean one way or the other, which would it be?

A) Harrison and Wayne make Manning a great QB.

B) Manning makes Harrison and Wayne great receivers.

Does it have to be so black and white? Its a symbiotic relationship - Harrison and Peyton are both great in their own respects, but together they are legendary. Thats why they are settings all time NFL records together.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Marvin Harrison = Michael JordanReggie Wayne = Scottie PippenNo, Harrison is not as good as Jordan was in his sport, but you see where I'm going with this.Wayne is a fine player, but I think he benefits greatly from playing alongside the great one. He never sees the #1 CB on the opposing team.

Great analogy.

Funny thing about that analogy is that the year Jordan retired (93-94), Pippen had hands down the best statistical season of his career. He had career highs in PPG, RPG, SPG and PER, and was in the MVP race. His second best year was 94-95, when Jordan didn't come back until the tail end of the season. So if you're trying to point out that Wayne's numbers would suffer, you've got it backwards.The Colts would still have a very good offense without Harrison. The overall passing production would take a hit, but Wayne would be the clear #1 option, and there's still too many weapons for defenses to say "If we stop Wayne, we stop the Colts".I think his numbers go up.

 

[CGRdrJoe]

Wayne's numbers would go WAYYYYYY up, Harrison was still getting his when he had no true #2 across from him.

 

[SSOG]

If you had to lean one way or the other, which would it be?

A) Harrison and Wayne make Manning a great QB.

B) Manning makes Harrison and Wayne great receivers.

I think if multiple receivers in an offense are putting up ABSURD numbers (including a season with THREE 1000 yard, 10 TD guys), the lion's share of the credit goes to the QB.Anyway, here are some numbers-

Harrison from 1999 to 2002 averaged 117 catches for 1580 yards and 13 scores.

Harrison from 2003 to 2006 averaged 89 catches for 1224 yards and 12 scores.

Harrison's WORST reception total from 1999-2002 was 102. Harrison's BEST reception total from 2003-2006 was 95.

Harrison's WORST yardage total from 1999-2002 was 1413. Harrison's BEST yardage total from 2003-2006 was 1366.

In other words, out of the past 8 seasons, each and every one of his first four seasons was better than each and every one of his last four seasons. There was a sharp and precipitous drop that occurred between the 2002 and 2003 seasons- before that, he produced at a very high but relatively stable level, and after that he has produced at a not-quite-as-high but still relatively stable level. That drop coincides EXACTLY with the emergence of Reggie Wayne- Reggie Wayne never had 50 catches from 1999-2002, and he hasn't had fewer than 68 since.

Basically, we've seen what a WR can do in this offense when he's the only weapon, and we've seen what he can do when he's part of a balanced attack. The balanced attack numbers are really, really good... but the only weapon numbers are MIND-BOGGLING. Harrison had 169, 164, and 205 targets from 2000 to 2002, but has only had 142, 139, 132, and 148 in the 4 years since. During that same 4-year span, Wayne has had 107, 115, 122, and 137- note the slow but steady increase. When Harrison finally falls to the clear #2, expect Reggie Wayne to see a 20-25% jump in targets, which should result in a corresponding jump in production. In other words, when Harrison is out of the picture, Reggie Wayne's value is going to go THROUGH THE ROOF. Mark it down.

 

[Spartans Rule]

If you had to lean one way or the other, which would it be?

A) Harrison and Wayne make Manning a great QB.

B) Manning makes Harrison and Wayne great receivers.

I think if multiple receivers in an offense are putting up ABSURD numbers (including a season with THREE 1000 yard, 10 TD guys), the lion's share of the credit goes to the QB.Anyway, here are some numbers-

Harrison from 1999 to 2002 averaged 117 catches for 1580 yards and 13 scores.

Harrison from 2003 to 2006 averaged 89 catches for 1224 yards and 12 scores.

Harrison's WORST reception total from 1999-2002 was 102. Harrison's BEST reception total from 2003-2006 was 95.

Harrison's WORST yardage total from 1999-2002 was 1413. Harrison's BEST yardage total from 2003-2006 was 1366.

In other words, out of the past 8 seasons, each and every one of his first four seasons was better than each and every one of his last four seasons. There was a sharp and precipitous drop that occurred between the 2002 and 2003 seasons- before that, he produced at a very high but relatively stable level, and after that he has produced at a not-quite-as-high but still relatively stable level. That drop coincides EXACTLY with the emergence of Reggie Wayne- Reggie Wayne never had 50 catches from 1999-2002, and he hasn't had fewer than 68 since.

Basically, we've seen what a WR can do in this offense when he's the only weapon, and we've seen what he can do when he's part of a balanced attack. The balanced attack numbers are really, really good... but the only weapon numbers are MIND-BOGGLING. Harrison had 169, 164, and 205 targets from 2000 to 2002, but has only had 142, 139, 132, and 148 in the 4 years since. During that same 4-year span, Wayne has had 107, 115, 122, and 137- note the slow but steady increase. When Harrison finally falls to the clear #2, expect Reggie Wayne to see a 20-25% jump in targets, which should result in a corresponding jump in production. In other words, when Harrison is out of the picture, Reggie Wayne's value is going to go THROUGH THE ROOF. Mark it down.

 

[Raider Nation]

If you had to lean one way or the other, which would it be?

A) Harrison and Wayne make Manning a great QB.

B) Manning makes Harrison and Wayne great receivers.

I think if multiple receivers in an offense are putting up ABSURD numbers (including a season with THREE 1000 yard, 10 TD guys), the lion's share of the credit goes to the QB.Anyway, here are some numbers-

Harrison from 1999 to 2002 averaged 117 catches for 1580 yards and 13 scores.

Harrison from 2003 to 2006 averaged 89 catches for 1224 yards and 12 scores.

Harrison's WORST reception total from 1999-2002 was 102. Harrison's BEST reception total from 2003-2006 was 95.

Harrison's WORST yardage total from 1999-2002 was 1413. Harrison's BEST yardage total from 2003-2006 was 1366.

In other words, out of the past 8 seasons, each and every one of his first four seasons was better than each and every one of his last four seasons. There was a sharp and precipitous drop that occurred between the 2002 and 2003 seasons- before that, he produced at a very high but relatively stable level, and after that he has produced at a not-quite-as-high but still relatively stable level. That drop coincides EXACTLY with the emergence of Reggie Wayne- Reggie Wayne never had 50 catches from 1999-2002, and he hasn't had fewer than 68 since.

Basically, we've seen what a WR can do in this offense when he's the only weapon, and we've seen what he can do when he's part of a balanced attack. The balanced attack numbers are really, really good... but the only weapon numbers are MIND-BOGGLING. Harrison had 169, 164, and 205 targets from 2000 to 2002, but has only had 142, 139, 132, and 148 in the 4 years since. During that same 4-year span, Wayne has had 107, 115, 122, and 137- note the slow but steady increase. When Harrison finally falls to the clear #2, expect Reggie Wayne to see a 20-25% jump in targets, which should result in a corresponding jump in production. In other words, when Harrison is out of the picture, Reggie Wayne's value is going to go THROUGH THE ROOF. Mark it down.

Do you live inside a giant book of stats?

 

[The Gator]

If you take Harrison out Wayne doesn't get close Harrison's 1999 to 2002 averages.

 

[DoubleG]

If you had to lean one way or the other, which would it be?

A) Harrison and Wayne make Manning a great QB.

B) Manning makes Harrison and Wayne great receivers.

I think if multiple receivers in an offense are putting up ABSURD numbers (including a season with THREE 1000 yard, 10 TD guys), the lion's share of the credit goes to the QB.Anyway, here are some numbers-

Harrison from 1999 to 2002 averaged 117 catches for 1580 yards and 13 scores.

Harrison from 2003 to 2006 averaged 89 catches for 1224 yards and 12 scores.

Harrison's WORST reception total from 1999-2002 was 102. Harrison's BEST reception total from 2003-2006 was 95.

Harrison's WORST yardage total from 1999-2002 was 1413. Harrison's BEST yardage total from 2003-2006 was 1366.

In other words, out of the past 8 seasons, each and every one of his first four seasons was better than each and every one of his last four seasons. There was a sharp and precipitous drop that occurred between the 2002 and 2003 seasons- before that, he produced at a very high but relatively stable level, and after that he has produced at a not-quite-as-high but still relatively stable level. That drop coincides EXACTLY with the emergence of Reggie Wayne- Reggie Wayne never had 50 catches from 1999-2002, and he hasn't had fewer than 68 since.

Basically, we've seen what a WR can do in this offense when he's the only weapon, and we've seen what he can do when he's part of a balanced attack. The balanced attack numbers are really, really good... but the only weapon numbers are MIND-BOGGLING. Harrison had 169, 164, and 205 targets from 2000 to 2002, but has only had 142, 139, 132, and 148 in the 4 years since. During that same 4-year span, Wayne has had 107, 115, 122, and 137- note the slow but steady increase. When Harrison finally falls to the clear #2, expect Reggie Wayne to see a 20-25% jump in targets, which should result in a corresponding jump in production. In other words, when Harrison is out of the picture, Reggie Wayne's value is going to go THROUGH THE ROOF. Mark it down.

While I don't necessarily disagree, I do have one questionoesn't your conclusion presuppose that Wayne and Harrison are equal in ability? Mathmatically speaking, to replace one in the equation, they would have to be equal (or close enough for the statistical differences to be negligiable). The reason for the question is that if you DO presume equal talent, than I'd agree with the conclusion...however, I think Harrison is better...hence the question.

 

[SSOG]

Do you live inside a giant book of stats?

Only for 2 weeks of the year. It's a timeshare, you see?

If you take Harrison out Wayne doesn't get close Harrison's 1999 to 2002 averages.

Why's that? Historically speaking, WRs don't see a reduction in their catch%s when they transition from the WR2 to WR1 role in an offense (many actually see an increase), and it's not like Peyton Manning is going to stop being Peyton Manning. It's also not like Harrison is getting all of the CB1 coverage right now and Wayne is getting the CB2, anyway.

If you had to lean one way or the other, which would it be?

A) Harrison and Wayne make Manning a great QB.

B) Manning makes Harrison and Wayne great receivers.

I think if multiple receivers in an offense are putting up ABSURD numbers (including a season with THREE 1000 yard, 10 TD guys), the lion's share of the credit goes to the QB.Anyway, here are some numbers-

Harrison from 1999 to 2002 averaged 117 catches for 1580 yards and 13 scores.

Harrison from 2003 to 2006 averaged 89 catches for 1224 yards and 12 scores.

Harrison's WORST reception total from 1999-2002 was 102. Harrison's BEST reception total from 2003-2006 was 95.

Harrison's WORST yardage total from 1999-2002 was 1413. Harrison's BEST yardage total from 2003-2006 was 1366.

In other words, out of the past 8 seasons, each and every one of his first four seasons was better than each and every one of his last four seasons. There was a sharp and precipitous drop that occurred between the 2002 and 2003 seasons- before that, he produced at a very high but relatively stable level, and after that he has produced at a not-quite-as-high but still relatively stable level. That drop coincides EXACTLY with the emergence of Reggie Wayne- Reggie Wayne never had 50 catches from 1999-2002, and he hasn't had fewer than 68 since.

Basically, we've seen what a WR can do in this offense when he's the only weapon, and we've seen what he can do when he's part of a balanced attack. The balanced attack numbers are really, really good... but the only weapon numbers are MIND-BOGGLING. Harrison had 169, 164, and 205 targets from 2000 to 2002, but has only had 142, 139, 132, and 148 in the 4 years since. During that same 4-year span, Wayne has had 107, 115, 122, and 137- note the slow but steady increase. When Harrison finally falls to the clear #2, expect Reggie Wayne to see a 20-25% jump in targets, which should result in a corresponding jump in production. In other words, when Harrison is out of the picture, Reggie Wayne's value is going to go THROUGH THE ROOF. Mark it down.

While I don't necessarily disagree, I do have one questionoesn't your conclusion presuppose that Wayne and Harrison are equal in ability? Mathmatically speaking, to replace one in the equation, they would have to be equal (or close enough for the statistical differences to be negligiable). The reason for the question is that if you DO presume equal talent, than I'd agree with the conclusion...however, I think Harrison is better...hence the question.

I think Harrison is better, but I think Manning is better now than he was 4 years ago. Regardless, I'm not projecting Wayne based on Harrison's numbers pre-Wayne, I'm projecting Wayne based on Wayne's numbers right now with a 20-25% boost for the ridiculous rise in targets he'll be in line for once Harrison falls off.

 

[CalBear]

Once Harrison leaves, Manning's numbers will go down but Wayne's will go up. With the targets he'd get as the clear #1, there's no way he could avoid putting up huge fantasy numbers. His yards per catch might go down but his catches and TDs will go up.

Reference: TO in 2000/2001.

 

[oukurt]

Good discussion -

over/under on how much longer Harrison plays - 2 years? 3 years?

 

[JetMaxx]

Once Harrison leaves, Manning's numbers will go down but Wayne's will go up. With the targets he'd get as the clear #1, there's no way he could avoid putting up huge fantasy numbers. His yards per catch might go down but his catches and TDs will go up.Reference: TO in 2000/2001.

That's kind of what I had in mind starting this. While Wayne isn't supremely talented, he has a terrific situation with Manning that can't help but evolve into the situation posted above.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Plant me in the camp of "no change".

 

[jon_mx]

If you had to lean one way or the other, which would it be?

A) Harrison and Wayne make Manning a great QB.

B) Manning makes Harrison and Wayne great receivers.

Both are true. Just like Montana is not the greatest QB without Rice and all the others great players on those teams.

 

[CalBear]

If you had to lean one way or the other, which would it be?

A) Harrison and Wayne make Manning a great QB.

B) Manning makes Harrison and Wayne great receivers.

Both are true. Just like Montana is not the greatest QB without Rice and all the others great players on those teams.

"Great Players" like Ricky Patton, Dwight Clark, and Freddie Solomon? That was the lineup for Montana's first Super Bowl victory. Solomon never had a 1000-yard season, Clark had a total of one, and Patton never had 600 yards rushing.Replace Patton with Wendell Tyler for the 1984 Super Bowl. Tyler had three 1000-yard seasons and one Pro Bowl.

Montana was great, period.

I think Manning will be viewed as great, also, but he hasn't yet had the experience that Montana did of succeeding with significantly different personnel.

 

[JetMaxx]

Once Harrison leaves, Manning's numbers will go down but Wayne's will go up. With the targets he'd get as the clear #1, there's no way he could avoid putting up huge fantasy numbers. His yards per catch might go down but his catches and TDs will go up.Reference: TO in 2000/2001.

That's kind of what I had in mind starting this. While Wayne isn't supremely talented, he has a terrific situation with Manning that can't help but evolve into the situation posted above.

Bumping this. It's been interesting to see what Wayne has done with Harrison being out over the last 4 games.Jax: 9/131Panthers: 7/168/1 and narrowly missed on 2 more red zone TD opportunities.Pats: 5/62Chargers: 10/140/1 red zone TDThe catches have gone up and the red zone opportunities are what increases Wayne's value with Harrison out. With a QB like Manning, his value has to go up strictly based on opportunites.

 

[Loan Sharks]

Marvin Harrison = Michael JordanReggie Wayne = Scottie PippenNo, Harrison is not as good as Jordan was in his sport, but you see where I'm going with this.Wayne is a fine player, but I think he benefits greatly from playing alongside the great one. He never sees the #1 CB on the opposing team.

Great analogy.

Perhaps Wayne is Pippen now which is damn good, I would say though in the end it may very well be Marvin Harrison = Michael Jordan Reggie Wayne = Michael Jordan

 

[JetMaxx]

Last night was a perfect example of why Dought Man's post is off base. Wayne was THE only legit option for Manning and thereby draw the complete attention from the defense. Finished 10/140/1.

 

[Sheriff66]

Wayne is a super stud without Harrison, and just a stud with him....